deborah weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · march 3, 2017 deborah weinswig, managing director, fung global...

10
1 March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2017 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. Alibaba Chart of the Week Amazon Chart of the Week Deborah Weinswig Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 March 3, 2017 1) This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the estimated $2.5 billion in revenue that will be freed up for other retailers to grab once JCPenney, Macy’s and Sears complete their recently announced store closures. 2) According to Moody’s Investors Service, the number of US retailers ranked at the most-distressed level of the credit- rating spectrum has more than tripled since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009 and is heading toward record levels in the next five years. 3) German discount grocer Lidl has unveiled a new concept store called Loft in Calais, France, where it already has two stores. Loft features wider aisles and more than 1,600 products. The store’s heat-reduction and waste-recycling processes make it environmentally friendly. 4) To develop 5G technology, China’s Huawei deploys an R&D staff of 80,000, challenging Europe’s dominance. That could give Huawei a sizable edge at a time when all suppliers have set their sights on 5G, which promises to be a wellspring of revenue by enabling smoother and faster interaction between connected objects. China: Retailers Shopped Most Often for Apparel Alibaba Group’s Tmall site ranked #1 among Chinese consumers who were asked “Where do you shop most often for apparel/clothing?” Base: 5,529 Internet users surveyed in December 2016 Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics 16.6% 18.0% 20.2% 22.2% 24.5% 25.6% 62.4% JCPenney Walmart Target Best Buy Amazon.com US: Consumers’ Likeliness to Recommend Top Retailers Shopped in the Last 90 Days Among the most-shopped US retailers, Amazon was ranked #1 by consumers who were asked “How likely is it that you would recommend the following retailer(s) to a friend or colleague?” Base: 7,591 Internet users surveyed in January 2017 Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 4.2% 5.1% 5.3% 10.8% 15.2% New World SenMa H&M Nike Walmart Vipshop Parkson Tmall.com (Alibaba Group) Taobao.com Kohl’s Macy’s

Upload: others

Post on 25-Oct-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Deborah Weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779

1

March3,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

AlibabaChartoftheWeekAmazonChartoftheWeek

Deborah Weinswig Managing Director,

Fung Global Retail & Technology

[email protected]

US: 917.655.6790

HK: 852.6119.1779

CN: 86.186.1420.3016

March 3, 2017

1) Thisweek’snote“FromtheDeskofDeborahWeinswig”discussestheestimated$2.5billioninrevenuethatwillbefreedupforotherretailerstograbonceJCPenney,Macy’sandSearscompletetheirrecentlyannouncedstoreclosures.

2) AccordingtoMoody’sInvestorsService,thenumberofUSretailersrankedatthemost-distressedlevelofthecredit-ratingspectrumhasmorethantripledsincetheGlobalFinancialCrisisof2008–2009andisheadingtowardrecordlevelsinthenextfiveyears.

3) GermandiscountgrocerLidlhasunveiledanewconceptstorecalledLoftinCalais,France,whereitalreadyhastwostores.Loftfeatureswideraislesandmorethan1,600products.Thestore’sheat-reductionandwaste-recyclingprocessesmakeitenvironmentallyfriendly.

4) Todevelop5Gtechnology,China’sHuaweideploysanR&Dstaffof80,000,challengingEurope’sdominance.ThatcouldgiveHuaweiasizableedgeatatimewhenallsuppliershavesettheirsightson5G,whichpromisestobeawellspringofrevenuebyenablingsmootherandfasterinteractionbetweenconnectedobjects.

China:RetailersShoppedMostOftenforApparelAlibabaGroup’sTmallsiteranked#1amongChinese

consumerswhowereasked“Wheredoyoushopmostoftenforapparel/clothing?”

Base:5,529InternetuserssurveyedinDecember2016Source:ProsperInsights&Analytics

16.6%

18.0%

20.2%

22.2%

24.5%

25.6%

62.4%

JCPenney

Walmart

Macy's

Kohl's

Target

BestBuy

Amazon.com

US:Consumers’LikelinesstoRecommendTopRetailersShoppedintheLast90Days

Amongthemost-shoppedUSretailers,Amazonwasranked#1byconsumerswhowereasked“Howlikelyisitthatyouwould

recommendthefollowingretailer(s)toafriendorcolleague?”

Base:7,591InternetuserssurveyedinJanuary2017Source:ProsperInsights&Analytics

3.1%

3.3%

3.3%

3.7%

4.2%

5.1%

5.3%

10.8%

15.2%

NewWorld

SenMa

H&M

Nike

Walmart

Vipshop

Parkson

TaoBao.com

Tmall.com(AlibabaGroup)

Taobao.com

Kohl’s

Macy’s

Page 2: Deborah Weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779

2

March3,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

FromtheDeskofDeborahWeinswig

The$2.5BillionGrabforDepartmentStoreSales

Lastweek,JCPenneybecamethelatestbigUSdepartmentstorenametoannouncearoundofstoreclosures.Thecompanysaiditwillshutter130–140storesaswellastwodistributioncentersoverthenextfewmonthsinamoveto“alignthecompany’sbrick-and-mortarpresencewithitsomnichannelnetwork.”JCPenney’sannouncementechoesanearlieronebyMacy’s,whichsaidinAugust2016thatitintendedtoclose100stores.SearsandKmartcontinuetoclosestores,too.SearsHoldingsannouncedinJanuarythisyearthatitwouldclose42Searsstoresand108Kmartstores.

Below,wesummarizetherevenuesthatrivalretailerswillhaveanopportunitytomopupasaconsequenceoftheseclosures.

JCPenney

JCPenneyemphasizedthatthelocationsitwillclosearelower-salesstores,specifyingthatthe130–140storessettobeclosedaccountedforlessthan5%oftotalcompanysales,despiterepresenting13%–14%ofitscurrentstoreportfolio.Basedonanaverage135storeclosures(themidpointoftheannouncedrangeofclosures),weestimatethatstoressettoclosegeneratedapproximately$600millionincombinedsalesintheyearendedJanuary2017.

IfweassumeJCPenneycanholdontoapproximately20%ofthesesalesbyshiftingthemtonearbystoresoritswebsite,thedollarvalueofsalesfreeduptorivalscomesdownto$482million.

Macy’s

Macy’sputacleardollarfigureontherevenuesitexpectstolosetorivalswhenitcloses100stores:thecompanyestimatesitwilltakea$1billionhittosalesafteradjustingforsalesretainedatotherMacy’sstoresandonMacys.com.Thecompanydidnotprovideagrossfigureexcludingretainedsales,butsaiditretainedbetween10%and45%ofsalesfrompreviousclosures.

Thisbillion-dollartotalequatesto$10millioninsalesforeachstorethatwillclose.GiventhattheaverageMacy’sstoreturnedover$30millionintheyearendedJanuary2017,itisclearthattheretailerisclosingoutletsthatareunderperformingatthetopline.

SearsandKmart

WhenSearsHoldingsannounceditslatestroundofclosuresacrosstheSearsandKmartbanners,itstatedthatthe150storessettoclosegeneratedaround$1.2billionintotalsalesinthepast12months.AsatJCPenneyandMacy’s,thestoresbeingclosedarelow-salesstores:weestimatethatthis$1.2billiontotalisapproximatelyone-thirdlessthanthetotalsalesthat108averageSearsstoresand42averageKmartstoresgeneratedintheyearendedJanuary2017.

Ifthecompanycanretain15%ofthesestores’sales,thetotalvalueofsalesfreeduptorivalswillbeabout$1.02billion(weassumeSearsandKmartwillseelowerretentionratesthanJCPenneywillbasedonshopperpreferencedatafromourresearchpartner,ProsperInsights&Analytics).Weestimatethetotalsalesopportunityforrivalswillbesplitasroughly$418millionfromSearsand$602millionfromKmart.

InShort,a$2.5BillionOpportunityforRivals

So,whatisourestimatedtotal?Ourbasicmathworksoutas$482million+$1billion+$1.02billion,suggestingthatrivalswillmopupsome$2.5billioninextrasalesonceJCPenney,Macy’s,SearsandKmarthavecompletedallthestoreclosurestheyhavealreadyannounced.Thatestimateisbasedonourownassumptionsregardingsalesretentionratesaswellasonthosebytheretailersthemselves.

ThesubjectofUSstoreclosuresisonethatwewatchcloselyandonethatwewillcontinuetocoverinourreportstrackingthechangingretaillandscape.

Page 3: Deborah Weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779

3

March3,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

USRETAILEARNINGS

Source:Companyreports

USRETAIL&TECHHEADLINESRetailCyberattacksDowninFourthQuarter(February28)JOC.com• AccordingtoanewreportfromcontentdeliverynetworkandwebsecurityfirmAkamai

Technologies,cyberattacksagainstretailerswereonthedeclineinthefourthquarterof2016.However,thatdoesnotmeanretailerswerefreefrommajorsecurityeventsduringtheholidayseason.

• AkamaianalyzedwebsecuritydatabetweenNovember22and29,thedayssurroundingThanksgiving,whichwasthestartoftheholidayshoppingseasonintheUSand,likewise,thepeaktimeforcriminalactivityonline.Thefirmfoundthatwebappattacksdeclinedby19%yearoveryearinthefourthquarter.

Company

Revenues(USDMil.)YoY%Change GrossMargin(%)

Change(bps)

NetIncome(USDMil.)

YoY%Change StoreFleetEOP

Period TY LY

TY LY

TY LY

TY LY

AmericanEagleOutfitters 4Q16 1,097 1,106 (0.8) 35.4 35.1 32 55 82 (33.1) 1,226 1,188

DollarTree 4Q16 5,635 5,365 5.0 32.1 30.8 126 322 229 40.5 14,334 13,851

FootLocker 4Q16 2,113 2,007 5.3 33.7 33.6 11 189 158 19.6 3,437 3,447

Gap 4Q16 4,429 4,385 1.0 33.9 32.8 105 220 214 2.8 3,659 3,721

JCPenney 4Q16 3,961 3,996 (0.9) 33.1 34.1 (99) 192 (131) 246.6 1,000 1,021

KateSpade 4Q16 471 429 9.8 59.2 60.2 (95) 86 61 39.2 448 255

Kohl’s 4Q16 6,205 6,387 (2.8) 33.4 33.1 33 252 296 (14.9) 1,183 1,164

LBrands 4Q16 4,489 4,395 2.1 43.3 45.6 (226) 632 636 (0.7) 3,855 3,743

Lowe’s 4Q16 15,784 13,236 19.3 34.4 34.7 (25) 663 11 5,927.3 2,129 1,857

Nordstrom 4Q16 4,316 4,194 2.9 37.0 35.6 136 201 180 11.7 349 323

RossStores 4Q16 3,510 3,251 8.0 27.7 26.6 107 301 264 13.8 1,533 1,446

StevenMadden 4Q16 336 344 (2.3) 38.7 36.1 263 29 26 11.7 189 169

Target 4Q16 20,690 21,626 (4.3) 26.9 27.9 (95) 817 1,426 (42.7) 1,802 1,792

Wayfair 4Q16 985 740 33.1 24.2 23.8 48 (44) (15) (183.7) N/A N/A

WEINSWIG’SWATCHING

InEuropethisweek,theFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyteamattendedtheMobileWorldCongressinBarcelonaandtheProfessionalBeautyLondonconference.InNewYork,theteamattendedTarget’sFinancialCommunityMeetingandaLocationBasedMarketingAssociationeventcalledMasteringtheTechnologicalMobileRoadmapontheNewCustomerJourney.TheteamalsoattendedtheAmericanApparel&FootwearAssociationExecutiveSummitinWashington,DC.

Page 4: Deborah Weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779

4

March3,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

NumberofDistressedUSRetailersatHighestLevelSinceGreatRecession(February28)MarketWatch.com• AccordingtoMoody’sInvestorsService,thenumberofUSretailersrankedatthemost-

distressedlevelofthecredit-ratingspectrumhasmorethantripledsincetheGreatRecessionof2008–2009andisheadingtowardrecordlevelsinthenextfiveyears.

• Theratingagencyisthelatesttoweighinonthestateofthesector.Initsretailandapparelportfolio,19companies,or14%ofthetotal,arenowtradingatCaa/Ca.Thatisdeepintospeculative,or“junk,”territory,andthepercentageisclosetothe16%thatwereconsidereddistressedduringthe2008–2009period.

USRetailersDestockandRestockFaster,BoostingFreight(February24)JOC.com• EvidencethatinventorydestockingisatleastpartiallyresponsiblefortherecentsurgeinUS

importsandrisingdomesticfreightvolumesisshowingupinretailers’earningsreports.Severalstorechainshaveclaimedthattheirreducedstockpileshelpedboostpricingandprofitinlate2016.

• Buttransportationexecutivessaydestockingisfarfromevenacrosstheretailsector,letaloneinotherindustries.Althoughsomeareenjoyinganearlier-than-usualuptickinfreightdemandinthefirstquarter,othersarestillwaitingforaneventbigenoughtojogthedemanddial.ThelargestUSretailer,Walmart,reportedabigreductioninUSinventoriesthisweek,bothacrossthecompanyandonacomparablestorebasis.

JCPenneytoCloseupto140stores,OfferBuyouts(February24)USAToday• JCPenneyplanstoclose130–140storesandofferbuyoutsto6,000workersasthe

department-storeindustrysagsincompetitionwithonlinesellersandnimblenicheretailers.Thecompanysaidthatitwouldshutter13%–14%ofitslocationsandintroducenewgoodsandservicesaimedattheshiftingpreferencesofitscustomerbase.

• Thecutscomeamidmountingchallengesforonce-stalwartdepartmentstorechainssuchasMacy’sandSears,whicharealsoaggressivelyclosingstoresinordertoshedcostsasshoppersflocktoalternatives.Macy’srecentlyannouncedplanstoclose100ofits675full-linestores.Searssaiditplanstoclose150stores,including108Kmartlocations.

AnOverwhelmingNumberofRetailersAreLosingMoneyChasingAmazon(February22)CNBC.com• Brick-and-mortarretailersarebecomingmorecompetitiveonlinebyprovidingtighter

deliverywindowsandofferingtheoptiontopickupdigitalordersin-store.• Thereisonlyoneproblem:astheyinvestbillionsofdollarstoclosethegapwithAmazon,

theoverwhelmingmajorityoftraditionalretailersstillhavenotfiguredouthowtoprofitablyfillordersthatincorporateboththewebandthestore.AccordingtoanewreportbyJDASoftwareandPwC,only10%of350globalretailerssurveyedaremakingmoneyfulfillingthesetypesoforders.

EUROPERETAILEARNINGS

*ThemergerbetweenDutchgrocerAholdandBelgiansupermarketgroupDelhaizetoformAholdDelhaizecameintoeffectonJuly24,2016.AlldataabovearepreparedonanIFRSbasisanddonotrepresentthegroupproforma.ThedatarepresenttheformerAholdcompanyforthefullyearplustheformerDelhaizecompanypostmerger,fromJuly24,2016.**Asofdateofmerger,July24,2016Source:Companyreports/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Company

Revenues(USDMil.)

ChangeinUSD(%)

ChangeinReportingCurrency

(%) GrossMargin(%)Change(bps)

NetIncome(USDMil.)

YoY%Change StoreFleetEOP

Period TY LY TY LY TY LY TY LY

DIA FYEDec31 9,813 9,905 (0.9) (0.6) 22.9 22.4 54 286.2 282.0 1.5 7,799 7,718

AholdDelhaize* FYEDec31 54,990 42,395 29.7 30.1 26.9 27.3 (42) 918.4 944.4 (2.7) 6,566 6,678**

Zalando FYEDec31 4,027 3,283 22.7 23.0 44.2 45.1 (87) 133.3 134.8 (1.1) N/A N/A

Page 5: Deborah Weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779

5

March3,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

EUROPERETAILHEADLINESTescotoCut1,700ConvenienceStoreDeputyManagerRoles(February27)Companypressrelease• TheUK’sbiggestgroceryretailer,Tesco,announcedthatitplanstocutatleast1,700deputy

managerrolesacrossits1,800Expressconveniencestores.Thecompanywillcreate3,300shiftleaderroles,whichpaylowersalaries,inplaceofthedeputymanagerroles.

• Tescoaddedthatitwillfinanciallysupportaffectedstaffthattakeonshiftleaderroles.ThisnewscomesjustweeksafterrivalgrocerWaitroserevealedthatitiscuttingsome500jobsandjustdaysafterJohnLewissaidthatitiseliminatingnearly400rolesinordertosimplifycompanystructures.

LidlUnveilsNewConceptStoreinFrance(February28)ESMMagazine.com• GermandiscountgrocerLidlhasunveiledanewconceptstorecalledLoftinCalais,France,

whereitalreadyhastwostores.Loftfeatureswideraislesandmorethan1,600products.Thestore’sheat-reductionandwaste-recyclingprocessesmakeitenvironmentallyfriendly.

• LidlwilltestanewconceptinthestoreeverySundayinordertoassessconsumerdemandandsaidthatithashiredateamofstudentstohelpwiththetrials.

RegulatorFines19WebShopsinFranceforMisleadingPromotions(February24)RetailDetail.eu• France’sconsumeraffairsregulatorhasfined19webshops,includingthosebelongingto

Zalando,H&MandAmazon,atotalof€2.4million(US$2.5million).Theregulatorybodyclaimsthattheretailerspublishedmisleadingpromotionsontheirsites,insomeinstancesincreasingpricesbeforeofferingdiscountstomakeproductsappearcheaper.

• Amazon,ComptoirdesCotonnieresandZalandohavepaidtheirfines,whileH&M,GrosBillGerardDarelandothershaverebuffedtheclaims.TheregulatorsaidthatithasbeeninvestigatingsuchnoncompliantactionsoverthepastfewmonthsandthatitwillcontinuetowatchformalpracticeinFrenchonlineretail.

Boohoo.comUpgradesFY17Expectations(February28)Companypressrelease• UKfashionpureplayBoohoo.comannouncedthatitexpectsFY17revenuegrowthtocome

inataround50%,upfrompreviousguidanceof46%–48%.ThecompanysaiditexpectstodeliveranadjustedEBITDAmarginatthetopendofitspreviouslyguidedrangeof11%–12%fortheyearendedFebruary28.

• Boohoo.comalsoannouncedthatithadcompletedtheacquisitionofUSretailerNastyGalfor$20million,andthatitwillbeconsolidatedbeginningMarch1,2017.

JonesBootmakerUpforSale(February28)Retail-Week.com• BritishfootwearretailerJonesBootmakerhasbeenputupforsalebyitsowner,turnaround

specialistAlteriInvestors,whichboughtthecompanytwoyearsago.• Alteriisreportedtohaveinvestedinnewproductranges,anewheadofficeandan

improvedwebsitefortheretailer.In2016,AlteriputJonesBootmaker’ssisterfootwearchain,Brantano,throughaprepackadministration.

Page 6: Deborah Weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779

6

March3,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

ASIATECHHEADLINESFoxconnIsTakingoverSoftBank’sInvestmentFundinAsia(February27)TechCrunch.com• FoxconnistakingoverSoftBank’sAsia-basedtechinvestmentfund.Themanufacturing

giant,whichisresponsibleforproducingApple’siPhoneandmanyothertechproducts,hasagreedtobuyamajority54.5%stakeinSoftBankAsiaCapitalinexchangefor$600million.

• TheestablishmentofthisjointventureisinlinewithFoxconn’soverallinvestmentstrategyandwillenablethecompanytoexploreandtapnewinvestmentopportunitiesthatwilldriveitssustainablebusinessdevelopment.

SamsungUnveilsTwoNewTabletComputers(February26)TheWallStreetJournal• AtaneventinBarcelonathisweek,SouthKoreantechnologygiantSamsungintroducedtwo

newtabletcomputersandalsoofferedaglimpseofhowitplanstomovepastlastyear’smassiveGalaxyNote7smartphonerecall.

• Despitethecompany’sannouncement,theauraoftheGalaxyNote7battery-firefiascohungovertheannualBarcelonaevent,whereSamsunghastypicallyreleasedthelatestiterationinitsflagshipGalaxySsmartphoneseries.

China’sHuaweiBattlestoOwntheNextGenerationofWirelessTechnology(February26)TheWallStreetJournal• Todevelop5Gtechnology,China’sHuaweideploysanR&Dstaffof80,000,challenging

Europe’sdominance.ThatcouldgiveHuaweiasizableedgeatatimewhenallsuppliershavesettheirsightson5G,whichpromisestobeawellspringofrevenuebyenablingsmootherandfasterinteractionbetweenconnectedobjects.

• Huaweihasexpandedrapidlyinrecentyearsinmuchoftheworld,evenasitsmainstaytelecom-gearbusinesshasbeeneffectivelyshutoutoftheUSmarket.ThecompanyhasalreadyovertakenSweden’sEricssonastheworld’slargestsupplierofwirelessequipmentbyrevenue.

BaiduSaysWorstofAdvertisingScandalinthePast(February24)FinancialTimes• ChinesesearchenginecompanyBaidunarrowlymissedrevenueexpectationsinthefinal

quarteroflastyearasitworkedtoreassureinvestorsthattheworstofanadvertisingscandalwasbehindit.ThescandalinvolvedayoungmanwhodiedafterbuyinganexperimentalcancertreatmentadvertisedonBaidu.com.Sharesroseslightlyduringafter-hourstradinginNewYorklastThursday.

• BaiduisChina’sthird-biggestInternetcompany,anditisfacingstiffcompetitionasittriestoenticeadvertisers.RivalsTencentandAlibabaareprovingsavvyatattractingmobileapptimeandvaluableuserinformationviatheirrespectivesocialmessagingappandonlinemarketplace.

Page 7: Deborah Weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779

7

March3,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

LATAMRETAILANDTECHHEADLINESBrazilRetailerGPAReportsQuarterlyLoss,MissingForecasts(February24)Reuters.com• GPA,Brazil’sbiggestretailer,reportedafourth-quarternetlossofR$29million(US$9

million)lastFriday,missingforecastsforitsfirstprofitinsevenquartersduetoweaksupermarketsalesandaheftytaxprovision.

• ThegrossprofitmarginofGPA’sfoodretaildivisionslipped2.1percentagepoints,to26.9%,ondeeperdiscountsdesignedtokeepsalesgrowingatthecompany’ssupermarketsandhypermarketsduringBrazil’sworstrecessioningenerations.

MexicoRetailSalesFallbyMostinThreeYearsinDecember(February24)Reuters.com• Mexicanretailsalespostedtheirbiggestmonth-over-monthdropinnearlythreeyearsin

December,officialdatafromtheMexicannationalstatisticsagencyshowed.Retailsalesfellby1.4%inDecemberfromNovember,thebiggestdropsinceJanuary2014.

• Yearoveryear,salesgrewby9.0%inDecember.ThefigurewaslowerthanNovember’s11.2%,buthigherthanDecember2015’s3.4%,indicatingarelativelystrong2016calendaryearfortheMexicanretailmarket.

DisburzeandBancoRendimentoIntroduceNewB2BServicetoBrazil(February28)Finextra.com• Disburze,apaytechcompanybasedinNewYorkCitythatisrewiringhowbusiness

paymentsaremade,andBancoRendimento,oneoftheleadinginstitutionsinforeignexchangeoperationsinBrazil,announcedthelaunchofanewbusiness-to-businessserviceinBrazil.

• ThenewserviceenablesbusinessestoseamlesslysettleinvoicesinBrazilianreais.DisburzealsoaimstoallowBrazil-basedbusinessestomovefundsoutofBrazilandintoitsgrowingpaymentnetworkaroundtheworldinthefuture.

Walmart’s2016ReviewinLatinAmerica(February21)RetailAnalysis.igd.com• WalmexcontinuestoleadintheMexicanmarket,withavarietyofformatsdeliveringsales

growthaheadofthemarket.In2016overall,totalMexicosame-storesalesgrowthcameinat8.0%,withgrowthinthefourthquarterupacreditable7.9%.

• WalmarthasplacedmuchfocusonreenergizingitsoperationsinBrazil,usingacombinationofstoreclosuresandstorerefurbishmentstohelpcreateastorenetworkthatappearsbetterequippedtosucceedinthelongerterm.

Page 8: Deborah Weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779

8

March3,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

EARNINGSCALENDAR

Sales(Mil.) EPS

CompanyEarnings

ReleasePeriod Date ConsensusTY LYActual ConsensusTY LYActual Currency

BigLots(BIG) 4Q16 Mar3 1,590 1,584 2.22 2.00 USD

AscenaRetailGroup(ASNA) 2Q17 Mar6 1,749 1,843 (0.10) 0.02 USD

CasinoGuichardPerrachon(CO.PA) FY16 Mar7 40,391 46,145 2.29 1.82 EUR

UrbanOutfitters(URBN) 4Q17 Mar7 1,034 1,013 0.56 0.66 USD

Adidas(ADS.DE) FY16 Mar8 19,301 16,915 4.89 3.65 EUR

Express(EXPR) 4Q16 Mar8 678 766 0.29 0.69 USD

SteinMart(SMRT) 4Q16 Mar8 389 394 (0.05) 0.15 USD

VeraBradley(VRA) 4Q17 Mar8 138 154 0.23 0.41 USD

Carrefour(CA.PA) FY16 Mar9 76,769 79,409 1.50 1.57 EUR

Morrisons(MRW.L) FY17 Mar9 16,187 16,122 0.11 0.12 GBP

Ulta(ULTA) 4Q16 Mar9 1,541 1,268 2.13 1.70 USD

AlimentationCouche-Tard(ATD-B.TO) 3Q17 Mar14 11,155 9,331 0.67 0.53 USD

Dick’sSportingGoods(DKS) 4Q16 Mar14(E) 2,479 2,240 1.30 1.13 USD

DSW(DSW) 4Q16 Mar14(E) 692 672 0.16 0.14 USD

SalvatoreFerragamo(SFER.MIL) FY16 Mar14 1,437 1,430 1.14 1.03 EUR

Page 9: Deborah Weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779

9

March3,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

EVENTCALENDAR

Event Location Date(s)

FungGlobalPresenting/Attending

NYFashionTechLab2017LaunchEvent NewYork,NY Mar7–8 √

SXSW Austin,TX Mar10–19

BrandInnovatorsChallengerBrands Austin,TX Mar12

RetailLocoatSXSW Austin,TX Mar12

AdidasInvestorDay Herzogenaurach,Germany Mar14 √

InternationalHome+HousewaresShow Chicago,IL Mar18–21

Shoptalk LasVegas,NV Mar19–22 √

CodeCommerceSeriesatShoptalk LasVegas,NV Mar20

WWDMen’sWearSummit Brooklyn,NY Mar21

ICSCRetailConnections London,UK Mar22 √

ULICarolinas’Meeting Charlotte,NC Mar23–24 √

ShopperMarketingSummit NewYork,NY Mar27–29

WWDRetail20/20:TheNewStoreExperience NewYork,NY Mar28 √

PlattRetailInstituteDigitalRetailForum LasVegas,NV Mar28 √

GlobalShopShow LasVegas,NV Mar28–30 √

IsraelDealMakersSummit2017 SanFrancisco,CA Mar28–30

InsideRetailLive–FestivalofRetailIdeas Sydney,Australia Mar29–31

BrandInnovatorsMobile&Millennials Chicago,IL Mar30

GlobalFootwearRetailConference HongKong Mar30

VFCorp.AnalystDay Boston,MA Mar30

WorldRetailCongress Dubai,UAE Apr4–6 √

BrandInnovatorsEntertainmentMarketing LosAngeles,CA Apr13

GlobalRetailingConference Tucson,AZ Apr20–21 √

NACDSAnnualMeeting Scottsdale,AZ Apr21 √

NABShow LasVegas,NV Apr22–27 √

WWDRetail20/20:TheNewStoreExperience London,UK Apr25

JDAFocus2017 LasVegas,NV Apr25–28

C-star2017 Shanghai,China Apr26–28

ICSCChinaRetailSummitandConnections Shanghai,China Apr28–29

Page 10: Deborah Weinswig 4)...2017/03/03  · March 3, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology deborahweinswig@fung1937.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779

10

March3,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comKirilPopovSeniorAnalyst

JohnHarmon,CFASeniorAnalyst

JohnMercerSeniorAnalyst

StevenWinnickResearchAssociate

CharliePoonResearchAssistant

ZaneYangResearchAssistant

HongKong:8thFloor,LiFungTower888CheungShaWanRoad,KowloonHongKongTel:85223004406London:242-246MaryleboneRoadLondon,NW16JQUnitedKingdomTel:44(0)2076168988NewYork:1359Broadway,9thFloorNewYork,NY10018Tel:6468397017FungGlobalRetailTech.com