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TRANSCRIPT
Deal Roadshow Presentation
September 2016
Disclaimer
1
This presentation is in conjunction with the offering of Notes described in “Summary terms and conditions” in this presentation. This presentation
does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the Notes in any jurisdiction to any person to whom it is unlawful to make the
offer or solicitation in such jurisdiction. The distribution of this presentation and the offer or sale of Notes may be restricted by law in certain
jurisdictions.
This presentation is confidential and may neither be communicated to any third party (with the exception of external advisors on the condition that
they themselves comply with this confidentiality undertaking) nor may it be copied in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Hellenic
Petroleum S.A. (the “Company”).
Neither this presentation nor any advertisement or any other offering material may be distributed or published in any jurisdiction, except under
circumstances that will result in compliance with any applicable laws and regulations. Persons into whose possession this presentation, any
offering material, or any Notes may come must inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions on the distribution of this presentation
and the offering and sale of Notes. In particular, there are restrictions on the distribution of this presentation, the offering circular relating to the
offering of the Notes, and the offer or sale of Notes in the United States and the European Economic Area (including Greece and the United
Kingdom).
The securities referred to herein have not been, and will not be, registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities
Act”) and may not be offered or sold within the United States or to, or for the account or the benefit of, U.S. persons (as defined in Regulation S
under the Securities Act), outside of the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration
requirements of the Securities Act.
This presentation may include forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections and
are subject to inherent risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from the future results expressed
or implied by such forward looking statements. Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Any forward
looking statements made in this presentation speak only as of the date hereof. The Company does not intend to publicly update or revise these
forward looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation and does not assume any responsibility to do so.
Presenting team
2
Contents
• Company Overview
• Credit Highlights
• Industry Update
• Historical Financials
• Appendix
3
Introduction
• Hellenic Petroleum (“Hellenic Petroleum” or the “Company”) is one of the largest refiners in South East Europe, with activities
across the energy industry spectrum (refining, petrochemicals, wholesale and retail) and presence in six countries
• The Company operates:
– 3 of the 4 refineries in Greece (Aspropyrgos, Elefsina, Thessaloniki) with total sales of 14.3MTmn in 2015, of which
over 50% exported
– 1,725 petrol stations across Greece and 297 internationally
– 220kt of polypropylene (PP) capacity vertically integrated with its refineries
• For the twelve months ended 30 June 2016, Hellenic Petroleum generated revenues of c.€6,579million, and Adjusted EBITDA
of €749million
• Hellenic Petroleum intends to issue 5-year Senior Notes in order to improve its debt maturity profile and liquidity position by:
– Partially refinancing / retiring its existing Senior Notes due 2017 through a tender offer transaction
– Repaying existing bank facilities and replacing them with stand-by commitments
• Pro-forma for the transaction, Hellenic Petroleum will remain conservatively levered with a net leverage of 2.3x
4
Summary terms and conditions
5
Issuer
Amount
Currency
Assumed Issue Rating
Maturity
Call Protection
Change of Control
Use of Proceeds
Ranking
Covenants
Distribution
Governing Law
Hellenic Petroleum Finance plc
[250 - 400]m
EUR
NR
2021
NCL
Par
Refinance 2017 Notes and other existing indebtedness
Senior
Substantially similar to the existing 2019 Notes covenant package
RegS
English
(in € millions) Current capitalisation
Jun-16 Amt x EBITDA Maturity
Reference EBITDA (1) 749
Cash and cash equivalents(2) (1,416) (1.9x)
Syndicated credit facility €50m 50 0.1x Jul-2018
Syndicated bond loan €350m 343 0.5x Jul-2018
Bond loan €400m 284 0.4x Oct-2016
Bond loan €200m 199 0.3x Jan-2018
Bond loan SBF €400m 198 0.3x Nov-2017
European Investment Bank Term Loan 267 0.4x Jun-2022
Eurobond €500m due 2017 483 0.6x May-2017
Eurobond €325m due 2019 312 0.4x Jul-2019
New Notes – – 5NCL
Bilateral lines 963 1.3x Various
Finance leases 5 0.0x Various
Total gross debt 3,104 4.1x
Total net debt 1,688 2.3x
Sources €m % Uses €m %
New Notes 400 100% Exchange on 2017 Notes 200 50%
Pre-fund maturities 192 48%
Indicative fees and expenses 8 2%
Total Sources 400 100% Total uses 400 100%
[●]
Transaction overview vs. current debt capital structure
• Net leverage neutral transaction with 2.3x LTM EBITDA
6
[●]
[●] [●]
[●] [●]
(1) LTM as of Q2 2016.
(2) Includes financial assets available for sale.
(3) Syndicated credit facility consists of two tranches: (i) a €40m tranche which was due to mature in July 2016 (“Tranche A”), and (ii) a €10m tranche (“Tranche B”) maturing in
July 2018. An amount of €20m of Tranche A has been renewed until July 2018 while the remaining amount of €20 million has been repaid.
(4) Assumes €10m in indicative fees and expenses.
Source: Company information.
Issue 5-year Senior Notes in order to refinance existing indebtedness and improve liquidity
(4)
(3)
[●]
[●] [●]
Simplified corporate structure
7
Hellenic Petroleum S.A.
Hellenic
Petroleum
International AG
Hellenic Fuels
and Lubricants
Industrial and
Commercial SA
Elpedison BV Biodiesel SA
Elpedison SA
Vardax SA
Okta Crude Oil
Refinery A.D.
Hellenic
Petroleum –
Renewable
Energy Sources
SA
EL.PE.T
Balkan SA
ELPE
Thraki SA
Athens Airport
Fuel Pipeline
Company SA
Diaxon SA Asprofos SA
DEPA SA
Helpe-Larco
Energeiaki
Kokkinou SA
Helpe-Larco
Energeiaki
Servion SA
Energeiaki
Pilou Methonis
Poseidon
Maritime
Company
Global Petroleum
Albania SA
Hellenic
Petroleum
Finance Plc
Hellenic
Petroleum Serbia
(Holdings) Ltd
Eko-Serbia AD
Helpe
Cyprus Ltd
Superlube Ltd
Hellenic
Petroleum
Bulgaria
(Holdings) Ltd
Eko
Bulgaria EAD
Jugopetrol AD
Hellenic
Petroleum
Bulgaria
Properties Ltd
Hellenic
Petroleum
International
Consulting SA
DMEP
HOLDCO Ltd
EKOTA KO SA SAFKO KO SA Eko Calypso
M.E.P.E.
Eko Athena
Maritime
Company
Eko-Artemis
Maritime
Company
Eko-Dimitra
Maritime
Company
Eko Aphrodite
Maritime
Company
Eko-Ira
Maritime
Company
Issuer
Guarantor
JV
Domestic
International
Helpe Upstream
64.4% 5%
45%
75.78% 35.6%
100% 100% 100%
100% 65%
100% 100%
54.35% 100% 48%
25% 80%
81.51%
Helpe Patraikos
Apollon
Maritime
Company
Helpe SA, Edison
International SPA
100% 63% 25% 50% 100% 100% 100% 99.96%
100% 50% 100%
100%
100%
100% 51% 51% 100% 100%
49% 33.3% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Ramoil SA
(1) Includes other activities (exploration and production) which was -€6m in LTM 1H16, -€2m in 2015 and -€7m in 2014.
(2) Includes 35% share of Adj. Net Income of DEPA Group adjusted for one-off items. As per ‘Share of profit of investments in associates and JVs’ as reported in financial
statements.
Source: Company investor presentation June 2016, company 2Q16 results presentation.
Petrochemicals 13%
Marketing 13%
Refining, Supply & Trading
74%
Montenegro
Serbia
Bulgaria
FYROM
Greece
Cyprus
Elefsina
Aspropyrgos
Thessaloniki
OKTA
Refinery
Marketing
Storage terminal
Company overview
Key financials 1H16 (LTM)
€749m(1)
1 Refining, Supply & Trading
2 Marketing
3 refineries, 65% Greek market share (by capacity):
- Elefsina (100kbp/d, NCI 11.3)
- Aspropyrgos (148kbp/d, NCI 9.7)
- Thessaloniki (93kbp/d, NCI 6.9)
14.4MTmn of gross production in 2015 (c. 94% utilisation)
50-60% of sales exported
2014 2015 1H16 LTM
Refining, Supply & Trading 253 561 553
Marketing 90 107 101
Petrochemicals 81 93 101
Other(1) -7 -2 -6
Total 417 758 749
Share of Adj. Net Income of
associates(2) 28 22 23
Domestic market
- 30% market share across retail, commercial, aviation and bunkering
- Total sales volume c. 3.5MTmn
- 1,725 service stations through marketing subsidiary (EKO and BP brand)
International market
- 297 service stations across Cyprus, Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria and FYROM
- Total sales volume c. 1.2MTmn
3 Petrochemicals
220kt of polypropylene (PP) capacity vertically integrated with ELPE’s
refineries
>50% of domestic petrochemicals market share
60-65% of sales are exports
Sales €6,579m
Adj. EBITDA €749m
Net Debt €1,688m
Net Debt /
Adj. EBITDA 2.3x
Paneuropean Oil
and Industrial
Holdings S.A.
Hellenic Republic
Asset Development
Fund
Free Float
Hellenic Petroleum ownership structure
45.5% 35.5% 19.0%
1H16 (LTM) Adj. EBITDA
Key Business Areas Operational Footprint
Adj. EBITDA Breakdown (€m)
8
3 Improve competitiveness
Key strategic initiatives have resulted in upgraded, efficient operations and
significant de-risking of the business since 2013
1 Upgrade Refining Assets • Completed refinery upgrades successfully
• Among the most complex refining systems in the Med
2 Rebalance market position and
de-risk business model
• Vertical integration: Doubled domestic marketing
market share with BP network acquisition
• Increased exports (60%)
Manage business portfolio for
value 5
• Gas & Power
• Exploration assets in Greece
• Operating KPIs and Solomon benchmarks
• Marketing competitiveness and COMO sites 4 Fit-for-purpose organisation
• Reduced headcount by 35% (2008 to 2015)
• Group culture
• Shared services
9
Action / developments
Upgrade
refining
assets
Results and implications
• Completion and start-up of
Elefsina (2012-13)
• Completion and integration of
Thessaloniki upgrade (2011-12)
Improvement
of operating
performance
De-risk
business
model
Strengthening
of supply
chain and
sourcing
optionality
Elefsina amongst top margin / complex
refineries in the Med
Complementary refining assets (system)
Operational flexibility and diversification
Ability to capture margin environment
and market cycles
• Rightsized headcount
• Fit-for-purpose logistics footprint
• Competitiveness initiatives
(BEST, DIAS)
• Retail cost model transformation
20% lower headcount (vs. 2013)
Improvement in Solomon Benchmarking
positioning
More competitive cost structure
• Acquisition and transformation
of BP domestic network
• Strengthen export capabilities
• Greek market risk management
• Diversified funding mix
Increase in vertical integration
Strong competitive position to seize upside
performance on Greek macro
• Asset complexity supports
alternative feedstock modes
• Geopolitical development / crude
market (East Med)
• Improved credit terms from
suppliers
Optionality of crude source (eg. Iraq, Iran,
Russia, Kazakhstan)
Availability of different qualities (sweet/sour)
Lower supply risk
Lower dependence on traders
Exports sales (MT ‘000)
2,377
8,939
2011 2016
% of
total
sales
21% 60%
Annualised
9
Increased profitability (energy, value
added products)
Lower cost to serve
Reduce Greek dependence through
international markets (50-60% exports)
Reduced dependence on Greek banks
10
Refining, Supply & Trading route to market Leading domestic market position and strong export capacity (international sales at >50%
of total)
(1) Domestic ground fuels and aviation and bunkering markets.
(2) Main units defined as follows: NCI (Nelson Complexity Index), HC (Hydrocracking), HS (Hydroskimmer and FCC (Fluid Catalytic Cracker).
Source: Export vs. domestic split percentages based on FY15 data.
1
Elefsina
NCI 11.3, 100kbp/d, HC
Aspropyrgos
NCI 9.7, 148kbp/d, FCC
Thessaloniki
NCI 6.9, 93kbp/d, HS
Hellenic Petroleum refining capacity (16MTmn)
Refined products
c. 14MTmn
4.5 MTmn
8.0 MTmn
3.5 MTmn
c. 65% Greek market share
ELPE Group
subsidiaries
c.50%
3rd party domestic
marketing companies
c.50%
Domestic market (1) (c. 7MTmn) Export market (c. 7MTmn)
ELPE international
c.20%
subsidiaries
3rd Parties
c.80%
Med competitive pricing Platts Med FOB based + premia
Montenegro
Serbia
Bulgaria
Greece
FYROM
Turkey
39
No. of petrol stations (H1 2016)
55
86
1,725
92
Cyprus
Elefsina
Aspropyrgos
Thessaloniki
25
11
Marketing operations Leading domestic market position and a regional footprint increasing integrated route to
market
4,637
4,070
3,361
2,971 3,052 3,494
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sales – Greek subsidiaries (‘000MT)
1,051 1,042 1,072 1,072 1,079 1,178
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cyprus Bulgaria Serbia Montenegro
Sales – International marketing subsidiaries(1) (‘000MT)
€107m
International56%
Domestic 44%
2015 Adj. EBITDA
+8.4%
CAGR
+4.8%
CAGR
(1) Does not include OKTA sales which is mainly wholesale.
Source: Company information.
2
OKTA
270
282
1,135
44
Propane Propylene Polypropylene BOPP
Petrochemicals Operations centred on utilising refining assets for higher value extraction; trading geared
to exports markets
12
(1) LTM as of 1H16.
Source: Platts, Company information.
3
Overview
Production and marketing of Polypropylene (PP), BOPP Film, polymers and solvents through the further processing of refinery production
Vertical integration
85-90% of total production integrated using
propylene produced at Aspropyrgos
Best-in-class Polypropylene production technology
Lyondell Basell’s Spheripol technology
Competitive advantages
Margin contribution by product (€/T)(1)
Geographical diversification
>60% of sales exported to Turkey, Italy, North Africa, Iberia and Eastern Mediterranean where
petchems are used as raw materials in the manufacturing industry and other applications
Strong domestic market share
Domestic market share in petchems > 50% in all products, produced or traded
Low exposure to refining margins
PP margins largely unrelated to refining margins
Domestic and
International market
Aspropyrgos
splitter
Thessaloniki
PP plant (220 kt)
PP Propane
Propylene
(polymer
grade)
BOPP BOPP film
plant (26 kt)
c.90%
c.10%
90%
Imports 10%
Petrochemicals value chain
Contents
• Company Overview
• Credit Highlights
• Industry Update
• Historical Financials
• Appendix
13
Credit Highlights
Diversified business model limits exposure to cyclical refining margins
5
Improved operating performance and cost structure through 2008-2015 competitiveness improvement programs
4
Well-invested asset base with low capex requirements
6
Improved crude supply optionality and supportive regional pricing dynamics
2
14
High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets
1
Assets strategically located for exports in diesel-short Med region complementing leading domestic business
3
High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Diversified asset base in two refining hubs, benefiting from system interconnectivity and
global LP optimisation vs. standalone/single refinery
1
Group refinery footprint and operating model
15
Aspropyrgos
148kbpd
93kbpd
Elefsina
100kbpd
Naphtha for
reforming
SRAR (1) & VGO (1)
for upgrading
Naphtha for
reforming
Thessaloniki
SRAR* for
upgrading
(1) SRAR (Straight Run Atmospheric Residue) and VGO (Vacuum Gas Oil) are intermediate products.
(2) Refined products output / crude feed capacity.
Source: Company information.
Note: CCR: Continuous Catalytic Reforming; FCC: Fluid Catalytic Cracking; FXC: Flexicoker; HC: Hydrocracking; VDU: Vacuum Distillation Unit.
Aspropyrgos
Elefsina
Thessaloniki
Refinery
System
Capacity(2)
(MTmpa / kbpd))
8.0 / 148
4.5 / 100
3.5 / 93
16.0 / 341
Latest
upgrade
2004
2012
2011
n/a
Next
maintenance
2018
2019
2016
n/a
Nelson
Complexity
Index (NCI)
9.7
11.3
6.9
9.6
HC
FCC HC
FXC
CCR
VDU
High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assets Consistent benchmark overperformance supported by high complexity system with
crude / product flexibility and significant wholesale margin capacity
8.0 7.5
10.2 10.2
12.3
8.3
11.8
9.5 10.2
8.6
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Benchmark margin
Consistent benchmark overperformance
$/bbl
1
(1) System benchmark calculated using actual crude feed weights.
(2) Includes wholesale trading premia and propylene contribution which is reported under Petchems.
Source: Company information. 16
56% 43%
36% 36% 29% 34% 39% 33%
23%
19%
24% 24% 22%
20%
29% 19% 16%
27%
10%
9% 9% 8%
11%
4% 10%
11% 9%
7% 21% 21%
19% 26%
28% 26% 31% 32%
1% 4% 4%
2% 1% 2% 3% 8%
3% 8% 11% 11%
3% 4% 7% 7%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Urals CPC Egypt Iraq Libya Other
Crude Sourcing (%)
Sweet / sour crude (%)
67% 57% 54% 56% 57% 56% 59%
69% 63% 56%
33% 43% 46% 44% 43% 44% 41%
31% 37% 44%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Sour Sweet
Sales breakdown (%) High value product yield (%)
53% 43%
36% 34% 34% 30%
26%
21% 20% 17% 17%
16%
21% 36%
44% 49% 49% 54%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM2Q 2016
Domestic Aviation & Bunkering Exports
14% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10% 13% 11% 14% 11%
51% 52% 53% 54% 54% 57% 52% 53% 49% 52%
24% 23% 24% 24% 23% 15% 22% 22% 24% 22%
5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 3%
5% 5% 5% 5%
6% 7% 6% 8% 8% 15% 8% 9% 8% 10%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
FO Middle Distillates Gasoline LPG Naphta/Other
ELPE realised margin(1) (2)
12.5 15.1 MTmn
17
Improved crude supply optionality and supportive regional pricing dynamics Coastal location and private port facilities allow crude supply optionality
2
Source: Platts, Company information.
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Recovery in Brent-Urals spread points to current
oversupply in the Med… ($/bbl)
CPC 28%
Iraq
27% Iran 9%
Urals 19%
Egypt
10%
Libya 2%
Other 5%
Import blends and countries of origin
Crude supply sourcing optionality
Black
Sea
Middle
East
North
Africa
56% 43%
36% 36% 29% 34% 39% 33%
23%
19%
24% 24% 22%
20%
29% 19% 16%
27%
10%
9% 9% 8%
11%
4% 10%
11% 9%
7% 21% 21%
19% 26%
28% 26% 31% 32%
1% 4% 4%
2% 1% 2% 3% 8%
3% 8% 11% 11%
3% 4% 7% 7%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Urals CPC Egypt Iraq Libya Other
Urals 34%
Iraq 28%
CPC 20%
Egypt 9%
Libya 2%
Other 7%
2015 1H16
Assets strategically located for exports in diesel-short Med region… 3
Diesel / Gasoil surplus (2020) Diesel / Gasoil deficit (2020)
Source: KBC Advanced Technologies, Company information.
Key Diesel / Gasoil balances in the Med region, kb/d (2020)
18
Exports sales (MT ‘000)
2,377
4,501
5,518
6,589 6,942
8,041
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% of
total
sales 21% 36% 44% 49% 49%
Portugal Spain
Morocco Algeria
France
Italy Croatia
Bosnia
Serbia
FYROM
Albania
Greece
Turkey
Cyprus
Syria
Lebanon
Libya
-51
-114 -69
-441 -35
-11
-13 -12
-18 -3
-260
-11 +49
Israel +6
-162
Egypt
Slovenia
+79
54%
1H 16
LTM
+73
+23
-8
+20
-37
Tunisia
-4 Montenegro
Domestic market demand(1) (MT ‘000) Domestic market shares
3 …complementing a leading domestic business with performance leveraged
to Greek macro improvement
(1) Does not include PPC and armed forces.
Source: Ministry of Environment & Energy. 19
11,413
10,125 9,267
7,727
6,599 6,669 7,103
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
+1%
+7%
-42%
65%
30%
Refining16 MT capacity
Marketing3.5 MT sales
Hellenic Petroleum
65%
Other 35%
Refining
(16MTmn of capacity)
Marketing
(3.5m MTmn of sales)
Hellenic Petroleum
30%
Other 70%
(1) Global benchmarking study conducted on a bi-annual basis; results displayed for C&S Europe (31 refineries).
Source: Company information.
20
ELPE positioning in Solomon Benchmarking(1) Group Headcount (FTE)
4 Improved operating performance and cost structure through 2008-2015
competitiveness improvement programs Favourable impact on KPIs with significantly improved efficiency and competitiveness
2010 2014
OperationalAvailability
Personnel Index (PI) Maintenance CostEfficiency Index
1st
quartile
2nd
quartile
4th
quartile
3rd
quartile
2010 2015
Domestic marketing opex
4,766
3,300
2010 2015
-31% -27%
67%
749
Retail Petrochemicals Wholesalesupply,
logistics andoverperformance
Non-refiningmargin derived
EBITDA
Refining EBITDAat $5.0/bbl
LTM Adj.EBITDA
Diversified business model limits exposure to cyclical refining margins
LTM Adj. EBITDA breakdown (€m)
21
5
Source: Company information.
Note: The above is not intended to be representative of future performance.
USD/EUR exchange rate of 1.1245 as of 8 September 2016.
No / low dependency on gross refining margin
Key industry macro drivers for Group
EBITDA €m
• Illustrative change in EBITDA for a given change in either benchmark
margin or exchange rate
• Based on normal operations throughput of 100-110mmbbl (LTM) and
LTM price environment
-$1.0/bbl
-10c. FX EUR/USD (50)
(100)
50
100 +$1.0/bbl
+10c. FX EUR/USD
56
16 13 12 9
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
73
25 22 32
91
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
22
(1) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items.
(2) Net interest paid as per the company’s cash flow statements.
Source: Company information.
Well-invested asset base with low capex requirements 6
€ million, IFRS 2015 LTM Jun-16
Adj. EBITDA(1) 758 749
Capex 165 135
Adj. EBITDA – Capex 593 614
Adj. EBITDA / Interest(2) 3.9x 4.0x
(Adj. EBITDA – Capex) / Interest(2) 3.1x 3.3x
Low capex requirements going forward
629
135 100–150
2009-2012Average
2013-2015Average
2016-2018Guidance
Cap
ex
(€
m) Last 5Y refinery capex (€m)
Aspropyrgos
Elefsina
Thessaloniki
520 453
46 61 36
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Refinery
System Cumulative refinery capex over last 5 years: €1.5bn
(Elefsina and Thessaloniki upgrade projects: €911m)
High levels of refinery growth capex historically
• Transformational refinery upgrades completed leading to:
• Improved operating performance
• Lower capex going forward
Contents
• Company Overview
• Credit Highlights
• Industry Update
• Historical Financials
• Appendix
23
Med regional crude supply Excess supply of sour crude grades (Iraq production growth) leads to favourable crude
spreads for Med refiners; Iran return to the market affecting 2016 balances
Crude exports / supply to Med(1) (kbpd)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
BTC Urals (Novo) Siberian Light
CPC Kirkuk Basrah (RHS)
(1) Total exports for Basrah; Med loadings for other grades.
(2) BTC = Azerbaijan, CPC = Kazakhstan, Basrah and Kirkuk = Iraq, Urals and Siberian Light = Russia.
Source: Bloomberg, Wood Mackenzie. 24
Oil supply from key producing countries 2015-2020
(kbbl/d)
44,060 45,120
46,267 46,976 47,628 48,289
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Russia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iraq
Kazakhstan Egypt
Libya Other Middle East
+9.6%
(2)
European demand growth for refined products Strong demand growth in 2015-16 especially for light-ends; Consumption in Europe also
positive after several years of contraction
European demand growth per product (%)
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gasoline Distillate Others
Source: KBC estimates as of 18/05/2016.
Europe fuels (mbpd)
15.0
14.6
14.4
14.2
14.5
14.7
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
-3% -2% -1% Growth +1%
25
+2%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
FCC Hydrocracking
Recent industry developments Improvement in European refining environment mainly on supply dynamics
• Crude oversupply in the region being the key driver of resilient margins
• Developments in global refining capacity (Middle East, Russia) and inter-regional competitive
position (USGC) favour the refining industry
• Weak crude prices and stronger USD positive for refiners, despite one-off inventory impact
Med complex margins - $/bbl
Med FCC margins:
2.6
$/bbl
3.3 6.5
Source: Q2 2016 Company presentation.
5.1
26
Contents
• Company Overview
• Credit Highlights
• Industry Update
• Financials
• Appendix
27
Group Profit & Loss Evolution
(1) Calculated as Reported less Inventory effects and other non-operating items.
(2) Non-recurring DEPA settlement with PPC.
(3) 2010-13 restated to Adj. Net Income attributable to Group (vs. Adj. Net Income attributable to parent) as reported until 2013.
28
€ million, IFRS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM
June 2016
Sales Volume (MT’000) –
Refining, Supply & Trading 14,502 12,528 12,796 12,696 13,538 14,258 15,142
Net Sales 8,477 9,308 10,469 9,674 9,478 7,303 6,579
Segmental Adj. EBITDA
- Refining, Supply & Trading 338 259 345 57 253 561 553
- Petrochemicals 50 44 47 57 81 93 101
- Marketing 114 66 53 68 90 107 101
- Other (incl. E&P) (28) (6) 0 (5) (7) (2) (6)
Adj. EBITDA(1) 474 363 444 178 417 758 749
Adj. associates’ share of profit(2) 30 67 69(2) 57 28 22 23
Adj. Net Income(1),(3) 213 140 229 (120) 2 268 283
(7) (6)
253
553 81
101
90
101
(8)
417
128
147
65 749
FY14 Bench-marking
Refining Margins
FX impact onUS$ based
margin translation
Operationalperformance
Others LTM Jun16
Other
(incl. E&P)
Adj. EBITDA Evolution 2014 – LTM June 2016
Adj. EBITDA bridge 2014 to LTM 2016 (€m)
Refining,
Supply & Trade
Retail &
Marketing
Petrochemicals Refining,
Supply &
Trade
Petrochemicals
Other
(incl. E&P)
29
• Current Adj. EBITDA run rate adjusted by a shift in refining macros and improvement in company performance
Retail & Marketing
1,689 1,688 554 (1,501)
350 60
474 11 51
YE13 Net debt Adj. EBITDA Capex Taxes paid Net interest paid Net distributions Others (incl.one-off items)
1H16 Net Debt ex WC changes
WC changes (incl. inventory
effects and payment tosuppliers of LT payables)
1H16 Net debt
Group Cash Flow Profile
30
Net debt evolution YE 2013 to 1H2016 (€m)
Note: All figures represent the cumulative total for Full Year 2014, Full Year 2015 and 1st half of 2016.
• Improved profitability supports stronger and de-risked balance sheet
0
200
400
600
800
2020+ 2019 2018 2017 2016
Liquidity profile Repayment of $400m Eurobond in May 2016; Successful covenants harmonisation supports
plans for 2017 Notes refinancing
Gross Debt overview (%) – 2Q16
EIB
9%
Debt Capital Markets 26%
Banks (uncommitted)
31%
Banks (committed)
35%
Total debt:
€3.1bn
2Q16 Term Debt Maturity Profile
31
Debt Capital Markets Banks EIB
• LTM Adj. EBITDA – Capex at €614m
• Reduced cost of debt vs FY15
• Repayment of $400m Eurobond in May 2016
• Successful consent solicitation for 2017 Notes; unanimous support from commercial banks
• Stand-by facility of €240m established with Greek banks, providing additional headroom to support LM and refinancing process
• Robust cash position of €1.4bn as of June 2016
EURm
(1) (2)
(1) 1-year extension agreed on the Bond Loan.
(2) Part of the 2017 Notes being refinanced as part of New Issue.
Balance Sheet Strategy
32
• Current business model assumes Net Debt of €1.5-2.0bn depending on prices
• Gearing ratio targets to be maintained for monitoring and compliance purposes
• Net debt / Adj. EBITDA target of 2.0-2.5x(1)
• Target weighted average life of debt of > 3 years, with c.50% of net debt issued in capital markets
Funding 1
• Maintain liquidity at c.20% of gross debt (depending on supply market conditions)
• Reduction of negative cost of carry
• Continue to utilise international banking structure for operational and risk management purposes
Liquidity 2
• Recently upgraded refineries allow normalisation of capex to c. €100-150m p.a.
• Proceeds from material divestments to reduce debt Capex/Divestments 3
• No distribution paid in 2016
• Plan to resume distribution in line with statutory framework and performance Dividends 5
• De-risk working capital position and increase optionality
• Explore market opportunities to improve cash flows and optimise costs/impact of asset conversion
cycle (e.g. contango trades and securitisation)
Working capital 4
(1) Proforma leverage excl. the carrying value of Investments in Associates from Net Debt.
Contents
• Company Overview
• Credit Highlights
• Industry Update
• Historical Financials
• Appendix
33
2Q 2016 Group Key Financial Highlights
• 2Q16 Adj. EBITDA at €156m (€130m LY) and Adj. Net Income at €38m (€39 LY):
– Weaker refining margins; stable EUR/USD exchange rate
– Higher refinery utilisation both q-o-q and y-o-y; improved performance post maintenance
– Highest quarterly exports at 60% of total refining sales
– Improved crude supply mix supported results
• IFRS reported Net Income at €72m in 2Q16 (€49m LY):
– Inventory gains (€49m in 2Q16 vs €20m LY)
– Profits partly utilise accumulated tax losses with a corresponding cashflow benefit
• Positive cashflow and balance sheet improvement:
– (Adj. EBITDA – Capex) at €133m
– Net Debt at €1.7bn reflects payables normalisation and initial payments to NIOC
• 2016 $400m Eurobond repaid and financial covenants harmonised across loans; 2017 refinancing plans in progress
34
156
130
+20%
2Q15 2Q16
Adj. EBITDA (€m) IFRS Net Income (€m)
72
49
+47%
2Q16 2Q15
Glossary
Financial
Adjusted EBITDA Calculated as Reported less the inventory effects and other non-operating items
Net Debt Calculated as Reported gross debt minus cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and available for sale assets
Refining
GRM Gross Refining Margin
MTmn million metric tonnes
MTmpa million metric tonnes per annum
NCI Nelson Complexity Index
VDU Vacuum Distillation Unit
CCR Continuous Catalytic Reformer
FLX Flexicoker
HC Hydrocracking
FCC Fluid Catalytic Cracker
HS Hydroskimmer
VGO Vacuum Gas Oil
SPAR Straight Run Atmospheric Residue
35
Glossary (cont’d)
Products
MOGAS Motor Gasoline
FO Fuel Oil
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Middle Distillates Includes Jet Fuel and Diesel
Chemicals
PP Polypropylene
BOPP Biaxially-oriented polypropylene
Marketing
COMO Company owned, managed, and operated
FYROM Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Other
ELPE Hellenic Petroleum
PPC Public Power Corporation
36