daily fx str europe 24 june 2011

8/6/2019 Daily FX Str Europe 24 June 2011

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Foreign Exchange London 08:00

FX Daily Strategist: Europe

DXY vs. oil

06 07 08 09 10 11

70.000

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90.00025

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105

115

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145

DXY (rhs)

Oil (Brent)

Source: Reuters Ecowin Pro. Correlation doesnot imply causality – and the Fed chairman for one refuses to accept a link between a weak dollar and higher prices to any meaningful degree. But if the IEA decision to release oil fromstrategic reserves succeeds in deflating oil prices(in 2005 post Katrina in lopped about 10% off prices in the ensuing 6 months) thisshould be associated with a firmer dollar.

This is not classified as objective research. Please refer to important information at the end of the report.http://www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com London: +44(0)20 7595 8086 NY : +1 212 841 2408 Sing.: +65 6210 3263/3347

GMT Country Release Mkt Last07:00 ES (May) PPI % (y/y) 7.307:00 ES (May) PPI % (m/m) 0.607:30 NL (Jun) Producer Confid 2.5 3.108:00 DE (Jun) IFO Business Cl 113.6 114.208:00 IT (Apr) Retail Sales % (m/m) -0.2

08:00 IT (Apr)Retail Sales %(y/y)

-0.7 -2.0

08:00 DE (Jun) IFO Current Con 120.9 121.408:00 DE (Jun) IFO Expectation 106.4 107.409:00 IT Italy to sell I/L bonds

12:30 US (May)Durable Goods O% (m/m)

1.9 -3.6

12:30 US (Q1) Corporate Prof (saar q/q)

12:30 USGDP (Final) %(saar q/q) 2.0 3.1

Focus reverts to Greek budget vote on Tuesday, but

tensions to persist even if passed

Comments from EU Summit, Chinese Premier Wen may

buoy EUR sentiment before then.

IEA actions smack of desperate measures, but if oil stays

down H2 growth prospects are improved.

EUR recovered from a very shaky London session yesterday, onthe news that Greece had reached agreement with the EU/IMFinspection team on a budget package. The focus thus reverts tonext Tuesday's parliamentary vote. There is also a votecurrently scheduled for next Thursday to approve legislationnecessary for Budget enactment, but we assume that if the budget

is passed, then this will be a formality. There was some positivenews of Belgian and Greek banks agreeing to roll over Greekdebt, but the bigger issue is whether the ratings agenciescooperate by not classifying a rollover as a default. And theBelgian PM says opposition support for budget is not arequirement for the next tranche of aid – so approval of the nextEUR 12bn on July 3 should also be a formality if the budget ispassed. It does not mean though that the IMF/EU has abandonedits demand for 'national unity' as a precondition for the next bailoutpackage. While passage of the budget looks likely, it is clear thattensions will persist even after July 3.

Oil prices fell sharply after the IEA decided to release 60mnbarrels of oil from strategic reserves. Although the move risks

being interpreted as a last desperate act by policymakersotherwise out of bullets,we see lower oil as positive for USD for anumber of reasons: the lower oil import bill improves the tradedeficit, but more importantly, consumers can spend their limited cash on other things. There's also the indirect impact of lower oil revenues leading to less FX diversification flows by oilexporters. But the issue is how long the impact will last: 60mnbarrels represent only about 17 hours of global demand andunless the action is followed up by further releases theimpact should be limited and temporary.

For today, we expect markets to remain illiquid with investors stillon the sidelines. Data will again come second to comments:Chinese Premier Wen is now in Europe and we can therefore

expect to hear strong affirmations of support for the Euro-periphery. The second day of the EU Heads of State meetingshould also be expected to come out with a more positive outlookfor Greece. Both are wholly predictable, but should still providetangible support for EURUSD. Thus our bias for the day wouldbe to buy risk on dips, although position squaring ahead of theweekend will also feature.

Economic event risk of most note Friday comes form Germany inthe form of the IFO survey and US Durable Goods orders. After Thursday´s PMI data, the market should be braced for a weaker IFO outcome than the 113.4 market median for the Businessclimate reading (from 114.2) and 106.3 for expectations (from107.4). On Durable goods orders, a modest bounce from April´sfalls is expected (+1.5% from -3.6% on headline).

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Market: EURUSD had a choppy ride; recovering sharplyfrom NY lows of $1.4125 on the 5Y Greek/IMF deal.Opened in Asia at $1.4255 edging higher to $1.4279before some profit taking and

Fitch's comments that Australia and Korea had mostAsian exposure to EU banks led a slip back to $1.4233,later balancing around $1.4260. GBPUSD traded up to$1.6029 from $1.6006, before easing back with the euroto $1.6000 and settling around $1.6020. EURGBP wastight as a drum in a stg0.8894-14 range. USDJPY had atypically quiet session ranging Y80.39-60 with bidsY80.35 and stops below through Y80.15; offers towardsY80.65/70. USDCHF traded $0.8576-92, rangingchf1.1938-65. AUDUSD continues to frustrate bearsholding up above $1.0500 after lows of $1.0455 in NY.All in all a quiet start to a Friday after yesterday'smayhem, with firmer Asian bourses (SHCOMP +2.15%,KOSPI +1/70%, TOPIX +0.93%) not reflected in the

currencies.

RECAP: In NY yesterday, EURUSD bounced more thana cent off lows after Reuters reports EU and IMF haveagreed a 5yr austerity plan with Greece (PM Papandreouassures EU leaders austerity plan will be passed). USstocks pared steep losses Thursday on that report.S&P 500 declined 0.3 percent to 1,283.50, after earlier falling as much as 1.9 percent, with energy stocks amongthe biggest losers. About 8.3 billion shares changedhands on U.S. exchanges, 17 percent more than thethree-month average. The VIX index jumped 4.2% to19.29. Commodities were all heavily in the red: WTI-3.3%, Brent crude -5.28%, precious metals up to 3.1%

lower led by Palladium. But same commodes are about athird higher.

Data/ events for day ahead (Via MNI)

Likely another day of Greece related headlines, as theEU leaders’ summit continues.

European data calendar kicks off at 0645GMT, with therelease of the French June consumer confidence survey.Data continues ate 0700GMT; with the release of Saxonystate CPI and Spanish May PPI. At 0800GMT, ItalianApril retail sales are due for release, although the mainrelease if the German June IFO report.

Also at 0800GMT, Bundesbank Board member Dombret meets with Bank of Japan Assistant GovNasako, in Hamburg. At 1000GMT, ECB Gonzalez-Paramo will be to be awarded honorary an PhD by theUniversity of Malaga, although unsure if there will be anyremarks.

At 0730GMT, the SNB is set to publish its QuarterlyBulletin 2/2011

US data calendar starts at 1200GMT, with the release of the May 2011 building permits revision is released. Themain data release is due at 1230GMT, with the release of May Durable Goods Orders and the Q1 GDP revision.GDP growth is expected to be revised up slightly to+2.0% for the third estimate of the first quarter. The chain

price index is expected to be unrevised at +1.9%.Analysts have already turned their attention to Q2.

Later Friday, there are a couple of US speaking

engagements on the calendar, with US PresidentObama delivering a speech on manufacturing atCarnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. At 1600GMT,US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner meets withbusiness leaders, before briefing reporters.

NEWS

Europe

European heads of government have signed off onupdated details of the euro-zone's emergencyfunding vehicles, the transitional EFSF and the futurepermanent fund from 2013, the ESM, the WSJ says.

The EFSF will increase its lending capacity to E440billion via a boost in guarantees to E780 billion. The ESMwill have E80 billion in paid-in capital and E620

billion in callable capital and guarantees, giving it alending capacity of E500 billion, the paper says. Nationalgovernments will have to approve the ESM treaty, thepaper added.

Guardian's website running headline "Greecegranted E120 bn bailout." However, the story doesn'tquite match the headline, as it says new deal stillsubject to passage of austerity package and privatisationprogram.

Despite EU talk of austerity measures "needingoverwhelming support" for Greece to get its nextinstallment, the WSJ says there was no indicationahead of the leaders meeting today that anygovernment was making opposition support acondition for release of further aid.

Greek unions on Thursday called a two-day generalstrike next week to coincide with debate inParliament on a fresh package of belt-tighteningmeasures, Kathermerini says.

Greek banks reliance on ECB financing increased for

the first time in five months in May, the country'scentral bank said, Kathermerini's English websitereports. Greek banks' reliance on ECB liquidity rose toE97.5 bn in May from E86.8 bn in the previous month,according to a Bank of Greece statement, the paper said.

In a press conference late Thursday, Greek Fin Min saidthat the government has been encouraging Greekbanks to participate in a solution to the countryscrippling debt crisis, Kathermerini's English website says.He said the government was encouraging a solutionalong the lines of the so-called Vienna initiative,according to which investors are asked to oluntarilyrenew their debt holdings as they expire, the site added.

Spain’s Banks Asked to Keep Greek Debt for 5 Years,El Pais Says

Foreign Exchange Strategy Friday, 24 June 2011

http://www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com 2





ECB's Noyer: Banks understand very well they mustparticipate voluntarily to Greece bailout

Irish taxpayers could end up having to take morecontrol of Allied Irish Banks after the institution entered

discussions with the Government on how it can raise thecapital necessary to satisfy recent stress tests, the IrishIndependent says. The State already owns 93pc of thebank. But AIB and EBS, which recently announced amerger, ombined need to raise over E14bn to pass thetests, the paper says

Greek FinMin says the tax-free threshold ondomestic incomes will drop to EUR 8,000 from 12,000currently, eKathermerini says. Income between E8,000 toE12,000 will be taxed at a rate of 10,with the exception of pensioners above the age of 65 and young workers agedbelow 30. Additionally, businesses will be called on topay "an average small tax of E300 per year," Fin MinVenizelos told reporters.

A tiny bit of solace for Greek workers, as the nationalminimum wage, as set by the collective contract signedby the GSSE private sector union and businessrepresentatives, will rise by 1.6 percent from July 1,Greek press notes.

Moody’s puts Italian banks on review for downgradeafter similar action on sovereign debt last Friday.

UK

Cameron opposes further Greek aid: The PM insisted

on Thursday that it would be “quite wrong” for Britain togive any further financial help to Greece, in spite of pressure from other European capitals, reports the FT.Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, said ahead of aEuropean Union summit that non-euro countries –including Britain – should help in a further Greek bail-out,while Germany also has concerns about Mr Cameron’sposition. German law stipulates that if Berlin joins a neweurozone bail-out of Greece, the operation should alsoinclude the use of an EU-wide stability fund administeredby the European Commission. Mr Cameron has made itclear that he would resist such a move – which couldleave Britain on the hook for about €1bn (£890m) – andinsisted that any British help for Greece should only bethrough the IMF.

David Cameron won a categoric assurance from theEU President, Herman van Rompuy, in BrusselsThursday that Britain will not be dragged into the nextGreek bailout, the Times says. The Prime Minister fought off a German attempt to include a EuropeanCommission fund in the second rescue package for Athens that could have indirectly cost Britain up to E1billion. But Mr van Rompuy said after a debate onGreece by European leaders over dinner that the fundwas "not part of the package", the paper says.

China

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao has declared victoryover domestic inflation, saying that the governmenthas successfully reined in price pressures. “China has

made capping price rises the priority of macro-economicregulation and introduced a host of targeted policies.These have worked,” Mr Wen writes in Friday’sFinancial Times. “We are confident price rises will befirmly under control this year.”

The fixing rate for China's seven-day bondrepurchase agreement fell Friday for the first day ineight as maturing central bank sterilization paper helpedease interbank liquidity conditions. The seven-day reporate -- a gauge of interbank market liquidity conditions --was fixed at 8.60% on Friday, down from Thursday's9.11%. That was the second highest fixing on recordafter the 10.0351% fixing on October 26, 2007.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao begins a European visitFriday amid what some analysts say are signs thatBeijing is placing more money in support of Europe'sbattle to contain sovereign debt problems. Mr. Wenwas scheduled to travel to Hungary Friday on a five-daytour that will also take him to London and Berlin. The tripwill include meetings with his counterparts in thosecountries and trade and financial pacts. China hasn't saidexactly what Mr. Wen and his hosts will discuss, butGreece and the euro-zone's broader debt woes—andChina's possible role in helping address them by buyingEuropean debt—are likely to be a significant topic. (WSJ)

The People's Bank of China, the country's centralbank, said on Thursday that it has signed a revisedbilateral currency settlement agreement with theCentral Bank of the Russian Federation. According tothe revised agreement, individuals and corporations fromboth countries will be able to conduct settlements and

payments using the yuan, the ruble and freely convertiblecurrencies, the central bank said in a statement on itswebsite. In addition to border trade, ordinary trade mayalso be settled in both countries' official currencies,following the revision of the agreement. (ChinaDaily)

Bank reserve hikes create cash "pools" for futureeasing For all the surprises China's central bank haslobbed at investors, its strategy is becoming clearer:mopping up foreign funds flowing into the country, andthereby creating vast "pools" of money that can bedeployed if the economy's slowdown worsens. (ThePeople's Bank of China appears poised to keep crackingdown on inflation by lifting banks' reserve requirement

ratio (RRR) far higher than many analysts expect --especially if hot money inflows keep squeezing throughthe country's strict capital controls.) (Reuters)

China’s nuclear safety program may be ready inAugust and submitted after that to the State Councilfor approval, the China Securities Journal reportedtoday, citing an unidentified person familiar with thesituation. Approvals of new nuclear power projects willprobably be suspended for two years, according to theBeijing-based newspaper. (Bloomberg)

The Beijing-Shanghai bullet train, the world’s longesthigh-speed railway, will begin operations at 3 p.m. on

June 30, halving the time needed to travel by railbetween China’s two most important cities. (Bloomberg)







East China's Jiangsu province has become one of the destinations for Japanese investors as they areincreasing investment outside the country as part of Japan's efforts to transfer production capacity after amassive earthquake and tsunami in March. (ChinaDaily)

China doesn't want to see a eurozone debtrestructuring and is making efforts with the IMF andcountries related to the sovereign crisis on avoidingit, a government researcher said. "China, the IMF andrelated countries are all making efforts...we

don't want to see a debt restructuring," said Qu Xing,director of the China Institute of International Studies.

China Banking Regulatory Commission has toldbanks to cut loans to property developers, a senior official with the regulator said in remarks publishedFriday. "We have taken four measures to prevent

loan risks in the property sector...including requiringbanks to reduce lending to property developers," LiaoMin, the head of the Shanghai branch of the bankingwatchdog, said during a forum held on Thursday.

Market News International China Business SentimentSurvey: Tight credit, price pressures and increasedcompetition continued to impact Chinese businessconditions in June with the results of the Market NewsInternational China Business Sentiment Survey showingkey indexes hitting their lowest levels in more than 18months.

Australia/ New Zealand

RBA’s Lowe Says Mining Boom Boosts Risk of Faster Inflation: “The current environment is aparticularly challenging one,” said Lowe, Reserve Bankof Australia assistant governor, in a speech today in thesouthern city of Adelaide. “We are looking at a significantboom in investment in the resources sector at a timewhen the overall economy has relatively little sparecapacity.” Global commodity prices are also undergoinga “structural shift” as hundreds of millions of people inAsia enter the global economy, said Lowe, who didn’tspecifically address monetary policy in his remarks to aBankSA Trends forum.

US

The Securities and Exchange Commission, which hadbeen seeking a budget increase to keep pace with itsexpanded responsibilities, struck out Thursday in aHouse committee that controls its purse strings, theWashington Post says. The Appropriations Committeevoted to keep the agency's budget flat in the fiscal year that begins Oct 1. The $1.19 bn the committee approvedfell short of the Obama administrations request by $222.5mn, the paper says.

The International Energy Agency announced that it

will release 60 million barrels of oil from emergencystockpiles, to alleviate possible shortages following theloss of Libyan crude. It is the third time the Paris-basedagency has coordinated the use of emergency stockpiles

twice since the agency was founded in 1974. The firstoccasion was during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, and thesecond when Hurricane Katrina damaged oil rigs andrefineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

Fed's Evans has completed his brief opening commentsat the Chicago event and stuck to the topic of state andlocal budgets, without any broader monetary policy or economic references relevant to the markets.

Weekly initial jobless claims worse than expected: at429k vs 415 expected and with last week revised up to420k from 414. Sales of new homes fell 2.1% to aseasonally-adjusted annual rate of 319,000 in May. Thepace was higher than the MarketWatch-compiledeconomist estimate of a 310,000 rate and also 13.5%above May 2010 levels, and came as April figures weremodestly revised higher to a 326,000 rate from an initiallyreported 324,000 rate. The supply of new homes on themarket fell 3.5% to an annual rate of 166,000, the loweston record, which represents 6.2 months of supply at thecurrent sales rate.







Disinflation Expectations could spur bigger USD rebound.Though not our central view, below examines the casefor a more pronounced USD rebound predicated on afurther decline in US inflation expectations.

The 22 June FOMC statement and ensuing pressconference from Chairman Bernanke only underlined our economists’ view that the bar for QE3 remains very high.The committee disappointed those hoping for a stronger commitment to the current policy stance once QE2 endsnext week. There was no application of the durationeffect (extended period language) to the size of the Fed’sbalance sheet size, let alone a commitment to extend theaverage duration of bond holdings as maturing assetsare reinvested.On the one hand, the Fed lowered its growth forecastsfor the next two years. On the other, it still sees therecent slowdown as being partially driven by temporary

factors. The uncertainty over growth indicators hasprevented the Fed from making any big move one way or the other. Should forward-looking indicators of growthremain soft, disinflationary expectations could takefurther hold. We note with interest that the US 5Y TIPSinflation expectation has already broken out of its recentuptrend, just as occurred last year between QE1 and thesignalling of QE2. This at the margin increases theconviction of a USD rebound.US USD corrects higher as US inflation expectationscorrect lower?

We can reasonably clearly link the rally in the US dollar between the end of QE1 and the signalling of QE2 over the second quarter of 2010 to US inflation expectations.Having suffered a disinflationary shock from the financialcrisis in 2008, the Fed decided to expand its balancesheet by initially buying mortgage backed assets in 2008,moving on to purchases of US Treasuries in early 2009.As the Fed did QE1 and thereafter signalled QE2 in lateAugust 2010 before following up on it in November 2010,nominal yields continued to fall. However, inflationexpectations continued to rally in a big way, taking realyields closer to zero (Chart 1).Falling real yields tend to undermine currencies of countries operating C/A deficits, such as the USD, asthey require an attractive “real” rate of return to lurefinancing. Chart 2 demonstrates that this relationship hasbeen in place for close to 15 years by comparing the

Fed’s broad measure of the real USD and 1Y Universityof Michigan survey measure of inflation expectation. Thelatest reading showed inflation expectations at 4.0% inJune, down from 4.6% in April. Recall that this measuredropped from 3.2% in May 2010 to 2.2% in September 2010 before moving higher following the QE2 signal fromBernanke.Why USD can correct by default even if the Fed’sbalance sheet remains large

The Federal Reserve subscribes to the “stock view”,whereby even maintaining the size of the Fed’s balancesheet will keep nominal bond yields low. While this maybe true, what matters for the US dollar is the market’s

expectations on future monetary policy and whether theFed will do more (rather than less). This link comesthrough inflation expectations; this time last year, when



Chart 1: Real US Yield vs. Fed Balance Sheet

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 2: Inverse Relationship between USD andInflation Expectations Not New

Source: Bloomberg

the market was jittery over what would happen after QE1, note that US 5Y inflation expectations correctedfrom over 2% at the end of April to a low of 1.11% on 25August – just two days before Chairman Bernanke’slandmark Jackson Hole speech in which he signalled the

need for QE2. Returning to the present, a similar correction has begun with the 5Y TIPS falling about 60bpsince the end of April.This has coincided with a USD rebound – which under this framework makes already-negative real US yieldsless negative. Chart 2 shows this using 2Y real yieldsand the dollar index.





Daily Currency SummaryG3

EURUSD

EUR recovered from a very shaky London session yesterday, on the news that Greece had reached agreement withthe EU/IMF inspection team on a budget package. The focus thus reverts to next Tuesday's parliamentary vote.There was some positive news of Belgian and Greek banks agreeing to roll over Greek debt, but the bigger issue iswhether the ratings agencies cooperate by not classifying a rollover as a default. And the Belgian PM saysopposition support for budget is not a requirement for the next tranche of aid – so approval of the next EUR 12bn onJuly 3 should be a formality if the budget is passed. It does not mean though that the IMF/EU has abandoned itsdemand for 'national unity' as a precondition for the next bailout package. While passage of the budget looks likely, itis clear that tensions over the details and conditions of the bailout will persist even after July 3.

USDJPY

USDJPY has found a firmer footing above 80.00 as the Fed chairman in his post FOMC press conference appearedto lay any prospect of QE3 to rest. Providing Treasury yields now hold at or above current levels, USDJPY shouldremain supported, with a good depth of bids still noted down to the Y79.50 area. Resistance currently seen in the81.05/10 region could likely be tested on a broader based USD rally.

JPY Crosses

While USDJPY is likely to enjoy firmer grounding above 80.00 due to a less dovish than expected Fed, Thursday’sdeterioration in risk shows that yen crosses remain subject to ‘up the stairs, down the elevator’ characteristics. For EURJPY, support near 114 was only temporarily breached during Thursday’s sell-off and having come back up a bigfigure, this level should hold the downside for time being, a bigger up move now contingent on passage of the Greekausterity measures agreed with the EU/IMF on Thursday.

EUR Bloc

EURGBP

The June BoE minutes were more dovish than previous, supporting our economists´ call for no rate hikes in 2011 or 2012. We see further GBP weakness but if the latest ‘risk off’ episode persists, this may be seen more clearly viashort GBPUSD and GBPJPY. In the event that risk taking resumes, we like GBP short against AUD and NOK.EURGBP met 0.8950 resistance on Wednesday and found decent support around 0.8850 Thursday, suggestingthese should mark the near term boundaries.

EURCHF

Having struggled for a couple of sessions to permeate 1.2150 resistance, all we needed were a couple of jittery

headlines from Greece to knock the pair back nearly 2 big figures to mark a new record low just below 1.1850. Nowthe markets await next week’s votes on the Greek budget. If new on Greece improves and stresses on the EURease, EURCHF could stabilize higher, but it is too early a call to make given the news flow. Datawise, real exportsslipped back in may and after the sharp fall in the ‘flash’ German PMI Thursday markets will be wary of a similar fallin the next KOF next Wednesday.

EURNOKAfter the Norges Bank’s relatively hawkish policy statement on Wednesday, not even yesterday’s sharp slide in oilprices could derail enthusiasm for all things NOK. If oil price weakness can't hurt NOK, and with 1.18 taken out onNOKSEK, only periodic bouts of profit taking present downside risk.

EURSEK

Global growth worries and a Eurozone-inspired ‘risk off’ move yesterday understandably saw SEK suffer more thanother G10 currencies. Greece-related sentiment will continue to dictate the SEK near term. Given softer than expectPPI data Thursday and after Wednesday’s Norges Bank decision, we continue to favour NOKSEK higher, 1.20 nowa viable target.

USD Bloc

USDCADRecent CAD gains have been rudely interrupted by the sharp fall in oil, triggered by the IEA’s decision to release60mn barrels from strategic reserves, and aided by a broader risk-off USD rally. 0.9700-0.9900 now marks out thebroader range; key support holds at 0.9683, the 50-day moving average.

AUDUSD

Periodic bouts of risk aversion continue to pressure the AUD, but it has recovered well from a slip below1.0480/1.0500 support. With Chinese Premier Wen opining that inflation has been controlled, the suggestion may bethat further Chinese tightening will be minimal; AUD is also likely to gain on positive comments out of the Eurozoneahead of the key Greek budget vote next week.

NZDUSDAUDNZD slipped below the 1.2980 support level and tested the 1.2900 level as the hawkish FOMC weighed moreheavily on the AUD. An improvement in risk appetite is likely to see the cross recover towards 1.3200, but this mayhave to wait for the Greek budget vote next week.







FX Forecasts*USD Bloc Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13

EUR/USD 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.35 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30

USD/JPY 80 78 83 85 90 95 95 95 95 95 95

USD/CHF 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.90 0.93 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04

GBP/USD 1.63 1.65 1.68 1.59 1.56 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53

USD/CAD 0.97 0.98 0.93 0.95 0.97 1.01 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04

AUD/USD 1.07 1.09 1.13 1.07 1.04 0.99 0.99 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96

NZD/USD 0.84 0.82 0.84 0.81 0.80 0.76 0.76 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74

USD/SEK 6.28 5.93 5.48 5.93 6.21 6.67 6.67 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.92

USD/NOK 5.36 4.98 4.77 5.07 5.26 5.56 5.56 5.77 5.77 5.77 5.77

EUR Bloc Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13

EUR/JPY 116 117 129 123 126 128 128 124 124 124 124

EUR/GBP 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85

EUR/CHF 1.22 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.30 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35

EUR/SEK 9.10 8.90 8.50 8.60 8.70 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00EUR/NOK 7.77 7.47 7.40 7.35 7.37 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50

EUR/DKK 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46

Central Europe Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13

USD/PLN 2.72 2.60 2.48 2.69 2.75 2.81 2.78 2.85 2.77 2.85 2.85

EUR/CZK 24.5 24.3 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.7 24.0 23.5 23.3

EUR/HUF 280 275 275 269 265 265 260 260 255 260 260

USD/ZAR 6.90 6.80 6.60 6.55 6.60 6.50 6.50 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90

USD/TRY 1.59 1.52 1.50 1.56 1.59 1.63 1.65 1.65 1.67 1.69 1.69

EUR/RON 4.25 4.20 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.15 4.10 4.20 4.20 4.10 3.95

USD/RUB 27.86 27.51 27.25 27.86 27.97 28.08 27.65 28.19 27.75 29.07 27.75

EUR/PLN 3.95 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.85 3.80 3.75 3.70 3.60 3.70 3.70

USD/UAH 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.3

EUR/RSD 102 100 100 98 97 96 95 93 92 91 90

Asia Bloc Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13

USD/SGD 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14

USD/MYR 3.00 2.95 2.90 2.87 2.85 2.83 2.80 2.77 2.75 2.73 2.70

USD/IDR 8600 8500 8400 8300 8200 8100 8000 7900 7800 7800 7800

USD/THB 30.00 29.80 29.50 29.30 29.00 28.70 28.50 28.30 28.00 28.00 28.00

USD/PHP 43.00 42.50 42.00 41.50 41.00 40.50 40.00 39.50 39.00 39.00 39.00

USD/HKD 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80

USD/RMB 6.47 6.40 6.31 6.25 6.21 6.17 6.13 6.23 6.20 6.17 6.15

USD/TWD 28.50 28.00 27.50 27.00 26.70 26.50 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00

USD/KRW 1070 1060 1050 1040 1030 1020 1010 1000 1000 1000 1000

USD/INR 45.00 45.50 45.00 44.50 44.00 43.50 43.00 43.00 42.50 42.50 42.00

USD/VND 20500 20500 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000

LATAM Bloc Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13

USD/ARS 4.10 4.18 4.25 4.34 4.43 4.51 4.60 4.69 4.78 4.86 4.95

USD/BRL 1.60 1.58 1.55 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.61 1.62

USD/CLP 465 450 435 425 430 435 440 442 445 447 450

USD/MXN 11.70 11.40 11.10 11.00 10.90 11.00 11.10 11.10 11.17 11.25 11.30

USD/COP 1770 1730 1690 1690 1700 1710 1720 1725 1730 1740 1750

USD/VEF 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80

USD/PEN 2.75 2.70 2.65 2.63 2.63 2.64 2.66 2.67 2.68 2.69 2.70

Others Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13

USD Index 74.21 72.30 70.76 74.87 77.62 80.72 80.72 82.99 82.99 82.99 82.99

*End Quarter







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Foreign Exchange

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daily fx str europe 24 june 2011

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