csx corporation presentation - 2012 baird conference · csx peers s&p operating income earnings...

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1 1 1 2 2 Forward-Looking Statements Forward-Looking Statements This information and other statements by the company may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, margins, volumes, rates, cost-savings, expenses, taxes, liquidity, capital expenditures, dividends, share repurchases or other financial items, statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operations, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved, statements concerning proposed new services, and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “will,” “should,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “preliminary” and similar expressions. Forward- looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company updates any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by any forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by any forward-looking statements include, among others; (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic, political or business conditions, including those affecting the transportation industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company; (vi) natural events such as severe weather conditions or pandemic health crises; and (vii) the inherent uncertainty associated with projecting economic and business conditions. Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward- looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at www.csx.com.

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Page 1: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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Forward-Looking StatementsForward-Looking Statements

This information and other statements by the company may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning ofthe Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings,revenues, margins, volumes, rates, cost-savings, expenses, taxes, liquidity, capital expenditures, dividends, sharerepurchases or other financial items, statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for futureoperations, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectiveswill be achieved, statements concerning proposed new services, and statements regarding future economic, industry ormarket conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as“will,” “should,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “preliminary” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update orrevise any forward-looking statement. If the company updates any forward-looking statement, no inference should bedrawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-lookingstatements.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results coulddiffer materially from that anticipated by any forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differmaterially from those contemplated by any forward-looking statements include, among others; (i) the company’ssuccess in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic,political or business conditions, including those affecting the transportation industry (such as the impact of industrycompetition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherentbusiness risks associated with safety and security; (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting thecompany; (vi) natural events such as severe weather conditions or pandemic health crises; and (vii) the inherentuncertainty associated with projecting economic and business conditions.

Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov andthe company’s website at www.csx.com.

Page 2: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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Leading transportation company in North AmericaLeading transportation company in North America

Top-tier performance sustained since 2003— Earnings growth, margin expansion, distributions to investors and stock returns

Economic environment in the U.S. has moderated— CSX has proven it can deliver superior results, even in challenging environments

CSX has strong foundation to support long-term growth— Network access and service levels leverage market opportunities

Macro-trends favor CSX and the railroad industry— Domestic and global growth drive longer-term potential

33

Delivered sustained superior financial performanceDelivered sustained superior financial performance

$861

$3,418

2003 2011

Operating Income

44

11%

29%

2003 2011

Operating Margin

$0.26

$1.67

2003 2011

Earnings Per ShareOperating Income(Millions)

Operating Margin Earnings Per Share

19% CAGR

Note: See GAAP Reconciliation for 2003 in Appendix

1,774 bps since 2003 26% CAGR

Page 3: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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Performance is top-tier among peers and S&P 500Performance is top-tier among peers and S&P 500

19%

11%

9%

CSX Peers S&P

Operating Income

55

1,774

662

303

CSX Peers S&P

Operating Margin

26%

14%

3%

CSX Peers S&P

Earnings Per ShareOperating Income2003 – 2011 CAGR

Margin Expansion2003 – 2011 BPS

Earnings Per Share2003 – 2011 CAGR

Top 19% among S&P 500

Note: See GAAP Reconciliation for 2003 in Appendix

Top 8% among S&P 500 Top 8% among S&P 500

66

$4.8 $5.1

$10.6

$9.1

1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2011

Cash DeploymentDollars in Billions

Dividends & Buybacks Capital Investment

Performance supports strong cash deployment Performance supports strong cash deployment

$6.2 $5.6

$19.7

CSX has pursued a balancedapproach since 2005 . . .

. . . and recent actions underscore its focus

CashDeployment

CapitalInvestment

$2.25 billioninvestment

targetedfor 2012

Dividends

Increased17% insecondquarter

ShareBuybacks

Completing$2 billion

program byyear-end

Page 4: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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Framework for capital deployment through 2015Framework for capital deployment through 2015

77

CapitalInvestment

Investment is the first priority of balanced approach

Historical average investment has been 16% of revenue

Trend reflects increasing investment in recent years

Core capital investment to average 16-17% of revenue

PTC investment is an overlay and expect to total $1.7 billion

Dividends are the second priority of balanced approach

Quarterly dividend increased ten times since 2005

Dividends to be 30% – 35% of TTM earnings per share

Dividend increased 17% during the second quarter

Expected increases to be announced annually in May

Buybacks are the third priority of balanced approach

CSX has repurchased $7.7 billion since 2005

Current $2 billion program to be completed by end of 2012

Buybacks funded primarily through free cash flow

New program expected to beannounced upon completion

Capital Investment Dividends Buybacks

88

CSX’s network provides competitive advantageCSX’s network provides competitive advantage

New Orleans

Charleston

Memphis

Florida

PiedmontAtlanticGulf Coast

Midwest

St Louis

Chicago

New York

Boston

Norfolk

Jacksonville

Miami

Northeast CSX serves over two thirds of U.S. population

Significant majority of U.S. consumption in the east

Connects all mega-regions in the eastern U.S.

Network positioned to compete for new businesses

Superior market reach into Northeast and Florida

Savannah

Wilmington

Tampa

Mobile

Baltimore

Philadelphia

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99

CSX’s business base diverse across many marketsCSX’s business base diverse across many markets

2012 Year-to-Date Volume5.4 million Units

Automotive7%

Metals4%

Chemicals7%

Export Coal7%

Intermodal38%

Agriculture 6%

Phosphates 5%

Food & Consumer 2%

Forest 4%

Emerging Markets6%

Note: Volume data is through week 43, ending October 26, 2012

Domestic Coal14%

1010

. . . and ports with consumption markets

St Louis

New York

Boston

Norfolk

Jacksonville

MiamiTampa

Mobile

Baltimore

Wilmington

Philadelphia

New Orleans

Charleston

SavannahPiedmontAtlantic

Midwest

Network positioned for long-term profitable growthNetwork positioned for long-term profitable growth

New Orleans

Charleston

Memphis

St Louis

ChicagoNew York

Boston

Norfolk

Jacksonville

MiamiTampa

Mobile

Baltimore

Wilmington

Philadelphia

Network connects naturalresources to ports . .

Savannah

Chicago

Phosphates Coal Grain Ports

Page 6: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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2.0%

1.3%

2.0%1.6%

Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12

Gross Domestic Product

4.4% 4.8%

3.3%2.6%

Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12

Industrial Production Index

Economic environment has moderated from first halfEconomic environment has moderated from first half

1111

Source: Global Insight and ISM

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201230

40

50

60

70

ISM ManufacturingPurchasing Managers Index

30

40

50

60

70

ISM ManufacturingCustomer Inventories Index

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Actual Forecast

Actual Forecast

Volume growth has been moderating across sectorsVolume growth has been moderating across sectors

14%9% 8%

(2%)

0%

(23%)

40%

8% 9%

(5%) (5%)

(31%)

20%

8%5%

(4%) (5%)

(26%)

(6%)

5%1%

(1%) (0%)

(24%)

ExportCoal

Intermodal IndustrialSector

AgriculturalSector

ConstructionSector

DomesticCoal

Average Weekly Year-over-year Change in VolumeFirst Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

1212

Note: Fourth Quarter volumes are through week 43, ending October 26, 2012

Page 7: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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6-month MAQuarterly 12-month MA 6-month MAQuarterly 12-month MA

Strong service foundation for inflation-plus pricingStrong service foundation for inflation-plus pricing

79%75%

82%

89%

Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012

On-time Originations

79%

70%72%

82%

Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012

On-time Arrivals

1313

Note: Fourth Quarter 2012 performance is based on data through week 43, ending October 26, 2012

Service and operating efficiency drive productivityService and operating efficiency drive productivity

$142

$264

$151

$79

$180+

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F

Productivity Savingsin Millions

Productivity savings on track to exceed $180 million

— High service levels improvingasset utilization

— Reduced overtime across all operating departments

— Fuel efficiency increasing

Continuing to adjust resources to match volume

— In excess of 500 T&E employeeson furlough or retention boards

— More than 300 locomotives currently in storage

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Long-term trends in the U.S. are favorable for CSXLong-term trends in the U.S. are favorable for CSX

Source: USDOT FHWA Freight Analysis Framework

CSX Territory

Eastern U.S. highway congestionfavors rail transportation long-term Freight demand projected to

grow significantly by 2040

Highways already congested, especially in the eastern U.S.

Recession amplified funding challenges for highways

Solving trucking challenges through rail partnerships

1616

Intermodal growth opportunity is substantialIntermodal growth opportunity is substantial

3.3

2.2

9.3

Domestic International Opportunity

Freight volume for lengthsof haul over 550 miles

Sources: Global Insight’s Transearch data, company reports, TTX, PIERS/JOC, TranSystems 2011

24 29

33 37

41 45

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

International OpportunityU.S. Container TEU’s in Millions

Domestic Eastern OpportunityTotal Market: 15 Million Units

Page 9: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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1717

Rail demand also benefits from global trendsRail demand also benefits from global trends

6.6

7.0

7.4

7.8

2005 2010 2015 2020

$46

$63

$84

$112

2005 2010 2015 2020

$2.6

$4.2

$5.7

$7.9

2005 2010 2015 2020

Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011), IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012, Global Insight, U.S. Economic Outlook, August 2012

Global Populationin Billions

Global GDPin Trillions

U.S. Import/Exportin Trillions

European Union

2010 2020

1818

Global GDP growth is led by developing nationsGlobal GDP growth is led by developing nations

Note: GDP expressed in trillions. Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012

United States

2010 2020

Brazil

China

2010 2020

2010 2020

India

2010 2020

Russia

2010 2020

Japan

2010 2020

$15

$22

$16$22

$2$4

$6

$17

$4

$10

$7$4

$4$1

Page 10: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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1919

Change in China coal demand creates opportunityChange in China coal demand creates opportunity

(69)(46)

(25)(2) (5)

104

147

208

254

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F

China Coal TradeMetric Tons in Millions

Sources: Energy Information Administration, Doyle Trading Consultants, & China Coal Resource

Net Exports Net Imports

China has transitioned from being a net exporter of coal to a significant net coal importer

2020

Seaborne demand for U.S. coal is increasingSeaborne demand for U.S. coal is increasing

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Europe S. America Asia All Other

Total U.S. Seaborne Coal ExportsNet Tons in Millions

‘03 ‘11 ‘03 ‘11 ‘03 ‘11 ‘03 ‘11

Source: Energy Information Administration

Page 11: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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Wrap-up . . .Wrap-up . . .

Remain on-track for earnings growth in 2012— Reflects eighth year of improvement over last nine years

Economic environment in the U.S. has moderated— Company will stay focused on pricing, productivity, resource alignment

CSX has strong foundation to support long-term growth— Network access and service levels leverage market opportunities

Continue to target a 65% operating ratio by 2015— Although the path forward is now more challenging

2121

2222

Page 12: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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AppendixAppendix

2323

2424

GAAP Reconciliation DisclosureGAAP Reconciliation Disclosure

CSX reports its financial results in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). However,management believes that certain non-GAAP financial measures used to manage the company’s business that fallwithin the meaning of Regulation G (Disclosure of Non-GAAP Financial Measures) by the SEC may provide users ofthe financial information with additional meaningful comparisons to prior reported results.

In press releases and presentation slides for stock analysts, CSX has provided financial information adjusted for certainitems, which are non-GAAP financial measures. The company’s management evaluates its business and makes certainoperating decisions (e.g., budgeting, forecasting, employee compensation, asset management and resource allocation)using these adjusted numbers.

Likewise, this information facilitates comparisons to financial results that are directly associated with ongoing businessoperations as well as provides comparable historical information. Lastly, earnings forecasts prepared by stock analystsand other third parties generally exclude the effects of items that are difficult to predict or measure in advance and arenot directly related to CSX’s ongoing operations. A reconciliation between GAAP and the non-GAAP measure isprovided. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered a substitute for GAAP measures.

Page 13: CSX Corporation Presentation - 2012 Baird Conference · CSX Peers S&P Operating Income Earnings Per Share 2003 – 2011 CAGR Margin Expansion 2003 – 2011 BPS ... Framework for capital

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GAAP ReconciliationGAAP Reconciliation

Full Year 2003 ResultsDollars in millions 2003

Operating Income

Casualty Reserve Adjustments

Legal Settlements

Restructuring Charge

$ 499

232

108

22

Comparable Operating Income $ 861

Operating Ratio

Casualty Reserve Adjustments

Legal Settlements

Restructuring Charge

93.4%

(3.1%

(1.4%

(0.3%

)

)

)

Comparable Operating Ratio 88.6%

EPS from Continuing Operations

Casualty Reserve Adjustments

Legal Settlements

Restructuring Charge

$ 0.09

0.11

0.05

0.01

Comparable EPS from Continuing Operations $ 0.26

Note: Results have been adjusted for the retrospective change in accounting policy for rail grinding and stock split

2626