crying wolf in the global village: managing disaster early warnings in the age of social media - by...

ICT Applications for Disaster Prevention and Treatment

Crying Wolf in the Global Village?

Managing Disaster Early Warnings in the Age of Social Media

By Nalaka GunawardeneScience writer & Columnist, Sri Lanka

at AASSA Regional Workshop on

Role of S&T in Disaster Management and Community Preparedness

Jakarta, Indonesia: 8 – 9 December 2015

Crying Wolf in the Global Village

Coverage… Early warning as life-saving critical info Tsunami warnings: a race against time Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Challenges posed by web & social media Case study: Tsunami warning of 11 April 2012 Dealing with false alarms Nurturing public trust in early warnings Covering the ‘long last mile’ in dissemination


Timely warningscan and do save lives!

Issuing disaster early warnings is both a science and an art.

When done well, it can save many lives…

…but ONLY IF the warnings quickly reach all at risk…

AND they know what to do


26 Dec 2004:Never Say ‘Never Again’?

Tsunami was detected and that info shared quickly by scientists

But NO public warnings at most locations hit

Quick evacuation could have saved many lives

“Never again!”


Key elements of a good early warning system

Adequate technological capability for: Detection Reliable but quick assessment Effective Dissemination of warning

Clear decision-making procedures at national level (to warn or not to warn)

Multiple, redundant communications systems to disseminate warnings

Well prepared communities


Warning ‘Window’ varies… Rapid onset disasters (tsunamis, flash

floods) allow only a tight window from detection to impact: 15 to 90 minutes.

Other hazards (cyclones, floods) may occur within a few hours or days from detection.

Multi-hazard warning systems need to be versatile & adaptable


Tsunami warnings: A Race against time!


Science of detection has improved In 2004: Pacific Tsunami Warning

Centre (PTWC) in Hawaii needed an average 18 minutes to process monitoring data & issue a warning.

By 2014: That time has been reduced to 7 minutes (source: Stuart Weinstein, PTWC’s deputy director)

This allows a bit more time for deciding & acting on it at nat. levels!


Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS)

Started in 2005: UNESCO leadership Inter-govt arrangement: 28 countries

that ring Indian Ocean Australia, Indonesia & India responsible

for issuing regional tsunami warnings Operates in parallel service with Pacific

Tsunami Warning Centre (PWTC) & Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

http://iotic.ioc-unesco.org


Indian Ocean Tsunami Warnings: Unfinished business

Sophisticated warning system costing over USD 400m now in place

Effectiveness is limited by poor local infrastructure, lack of preparedness

Some countries lack efficient decision-making for issuing national warnings

Everyone is not yet clear of various terms used in tsunami early warnings

Can lead to confusion, even chaos


Many (incl. media) confuse these message levels (esp in local langs)!

http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/?page=message_definitions


This can still happen…


Indian Ocean Tsunami Warnings:Are We Ready?Reuters investigation, Dec 2014:

“For millions in coastal areas, warnings don't always get through, thanks to bureaucratic confusion and geography. In the most vulnerable areas, infrastructure is wanting, and many lack the basic knowledge to keep themselves safe from the deadly

waves”.http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tsunami-

anniversary-warning-idUSKBN0JZ03220141222


A new challenge:Rise of web & social media Govts no longer have options of:

Monopoly over info; or Controlled release of info

With 24/7 news channels & social media: many people learn of breaking disasters independently of official sources

Some social media users also: Instantly share such info (with or without verifying) Add own views – not always accurately

What can be done to avoid panic & chaos?


SciDev.Net global edition:Op-ed on 6 Feb 2013 by Rohan Samarajiva & Nalaka Gunawardene

https://shar.es/1cUUls


Did that happen on 11 Apr 2012?


Case study:Events on 11 April 2012

8.6-magnitude quake occurred beneath ocean floor southwest of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Several I/O countries issued quick warnings and some also ordered coastal evacuations Thai authorities shut down Phuket Int. Airport Chennai port in southern India closed for a few hours

In the end, quake did not generate a tsunami …but it triggered considerable panic and chaos in

South & Southeast Asia


Sri Lanka’s reaction on 11 April 2012

Coastal bus & train services stopped: thousands stranded

Electricity shut down in coastal areas for hours Public offices abruptly closed early afternoon Dept of Meteorology (designated national tsunami

warning body) used only live phone interviews on radio & TV to warn people…

…But NOT its own website or social media feeds A few of us journalists & cyber-activists kept on

tweeting ground-level updates + relaying news from global wire services some calming effect


Communication Lessons of 11 April 2012 quake

Govts must communicate in a timely and authoritative manner during crises, using BOTH conventional AND new media

If not, that vacuum online will be filled by multiple voices.

Some of those may be untrue, speculative, or mischievously false confusion & panic

Crying Wolf in the Global Village is easy!


Precious element: TRUST “Disaster early warnings are pure

public goods… Public trust is the lubricant that will move the wheels of law and order as well as public safety in the right direction.” - Nurturing Public Trust in Times of Crisis: Lessons of April 11 quakeOp-ed by Nalaka GunawardeneGroundviews.org 26 April 2012 http://goo.gl/s1Xokf


How to cope with False Alarms?

Unavoidable: when rapid decisions are made using imperfect info, errors of judgement can (and do) happen

E.g. 3 out of every 4 tsunami related coastal evacuations in Hawaii called by PTWC have later proved unnecessary

BUT…PTWC has never missed any tsunami that happened since its inception in 1949


Tropical Cycline Sidr Nov 2007:Was public trust eroded?

Too many false alarms and evacuation orders indifference

As seen in southern Bangladesh in Nov 2007?

As tropical Cyclone Sidr approached, some communities ignored warnings 1,000+ died

Found: A false tsunami alert and evacuation 2 months earlier had eroded trust in country’s well-established early warning system


What can be done?Fully cover the ‘Long Last Mile’!

“While the establishment of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System is a major leap forward, ‘the last mile’ outreach continues to be the challenge in the region. Gaps may exist in local level preparedness, including those related to dissemination of warnings.” - Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, regional adviser on disaster risk reduction at UN-ESCAP, Bangkok (Dec 2014)


What can be done?If you can’t beat ‘em…

Govt agencies need to add social media to existing methods (radio, TV, SMS) of disseminating early warnings

On-going social media engagement by agencies nurtures PUBLIC TRUST

Adopt & follow clear protocols for social media communications: Philippines govt’s standard #hashtags for

use during disasters (mid 2014) UN-OCHA adapting Philippines good

practice for global use (Dec 2014)


UN-OCHA has proposed 3 types of DRR related #hashtags

Disaster title hashtags (e.g. #Sandy) to used by anyone to generally comment on an emergency (e.g. Hurricane Sandy) and would not be actively monitored by response agencies.

Public reporting hashtags. Specific hashtag for citizens to report non-life-threatening emergency items they see (e.g. #311US for broken power lines or a damaged bridge in USA) resulting data could be scanned, mined and filtered to the relevant responding agencies.

Emergency response hashtags. Standard hashtag to trigger emergency response, based on local standards (e.g. #911US for USA): enables citizens to tag content that is absolutely critical & also enables responders to set up dedicated social media monitoring tools


Summing up… Positive trends since 2004:

Advances in science of disaster detection Advances in comm. technologies & coverage Greater international cooperation in Indian Ocean Revamped national disaster management systems

Challenges that need to be met: Social media cacophony: nurture trust & credibility Fully covering the Long Last Mile of dissemination


Thank You…#StaySafe! #VerifyInfo #Share!

Email: [email protected]: http://nalakagunawardene.com Twitter: @NalakaGwww.facebook.com/nalaka.gunawardene

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