The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus Volume 9 | Issue 38 | Number 2 | Article ID 3603 | Sep 19, 2011

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Creating a Solar Belt in East Japan: The Energy Future　　東日本にソーラーベルトを−−太陽の港、風の港で日本は甦る

Andrew DeWit, Son Masayoshi

Creating a Solar Belt in East Japan: TheEnergy Future

Son Masayoshi with an introduction byAndrew DeWit

Introduction

This article by Softbank CEO Son Masayoshioutlines the thinking of one of Japan's mostinnovative capitalists and public-spiritedcitizens. Having helped create a competitivemarket in telecommunications, Son is nowaimed at liberating and greening Japan's YEN16 trillion electricity industry. In addition to theefforts he outl ines in the article, Soninaugurated his Japan Renewable EnergyFoundation on September 12. This Foundationis to be led by Tomas Kaberger, the formerDirector General of the Swedish EnergyAgency. I t inc ludes a s te l lar cast o finternational experts on renewable energy,associated support policies (especially the feedin tariff), and other aspects of the ongoingenergy revolution. Through these initiativesand the plan for a "solar belt," described in thisarticle, Son has been instrumental in defining anew direction for Japan in the wake ofFukushima. Without Son putting renewableenergy so squarely and credibly on the publicagenda, Japan might have succumbed to theenormous pressure from Keidanren, METI,TEPCO and other elements of the nuclearvillage to maintain the unsustainable statusquo.

Son Masayoshi

In fact, the fight over Japan's energy options isnot at all ended. The nuclear village's effort toportray Fukushima as merely a setback hasfailed in the face of the facts, of course. Amongrecent surveys results, we find those thatindicate as much as 100,000,000 m³ ofFukushima's topsoil has been irradiated by themeltdowns, an enormous quantity whosedisposal, both its logistics and its cost, simplystaggers the mind. In the meantime, theMinistry of Economy Trade and Industry(METI) is in a struggle with the financialinstitutions that lent trillions of yen to TEPCOand now want the state to ensure that they arecompletely reimbursed. The nuclear village andi t s h i red guns in the academic andadministrative and political sectors haveworked together to craft a mechanism throughwhich compensation will almost inevitably betorn out of the public budget as well as thepockets of utility ratepayers. The ricketiness ofthe scheme suggests it can only hold together if

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the 10 regional monopolized utilities and theirrisky nuclear assets are maintained largely asis. It is thus easy to understand why theestablishment is furious at Son's effort to apply"creative destruction" to their vested interestsin Japan's power markets.

Softbank's role is of course not the onlyelement that is driving Japan so rapidly towardsfulfilling its longstanding commitment to be agreen leader. Another is the fact that Tohokuwas so heavily devastated by the March 11earthquake and tsunami. The rebuild givesJapan the opportunity to rebuild smart, whichhas become common sense within thecommi t tees dev i s ing the p l ans f o rreconstruction. METI recently released theresults of one of its own in-house academicstudies showing that global renewable energyand associated infrastructure businessesalready reached YEN 30 trillion in 2010. Thestudy also projects that the global industry willexpand to about ¥80 trillion by 2020. Thequestion of whether Japan plays a leading rolein the process remains open.

A smart approach to rebuilding the devastatedarea could serve as a template for restructuringpower markets within Japan. This needs to bedone, as the International Energy Associationargues, because Japan is balkanized into 10regional and monopolized utilities that havevery little interaction among each other as apower market. Son in fact proposed a YEN 2trillion plan for this kind of "supergid" at theinauguration of his Japan Renewable EnergyFoundation.

The IEA also points to the opportunity forextending this power market throughout theEast Asian region, something Son discussedwith South Korean President Lee last May aswell as formally proposed during his September12 talk. In short, initial possibilities now existfor a regionwide energy transformation

A few decades on, when the history of thisstressful period in Japanese politics andbusiness is written, Son will rank as a leaderwith vision and courage. By contrast, the costsof the nuclear village will still be burdeningpublic health and public finance. Andrew DeWit

Cell phone networks collapsed

I was shocked by the Great East JapanEarthquake. These days I carry a Geigercounter wherever I go and I was surprisedwhen I went to the Kansai area last week andthe device registered double digits like I hadseen in Tokyo. Radiation now spreads beyondTohoku and Kanto to the west as well.

One thing that I, as an operator of a cell phonebusiness, was reminded from this earthquakeand tsunami is that although cell phones arewireless, stations are wired with optical fibercables, and when these are broken or powerfails, cell phones do not work at all. When welose electricity and the network is crippled, cellphones are completely out of service.

SoftBank phones also lacked sufficient

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functioning for receiving earthquake earlywarnings, so I have decided to equip nearlyevery phone in the future with this function.

In terms of recovery support, we are currentlypreparing to establish a foundation to aid andsupport disaster-hit areas, in hopes of bringingtogether the goodwill of the entire nation.

While I was wondering if there is anything Icould do as an individual citizen in fields thatdo not necessarily have direct relation with myprimary business, I launched a portal sitespecializing in recovery assistance in an effortto create a system that collaborates with localautonomies and non-profit organizations(NPOs). The site joins forces with volunteers todevelop tools to manage insufficient supplies toeliminate the imbalance of accumulatedsupplies not reaching those who truly needthem, or a system that allows individualsupporters to support individual evacuees inways such as a certain volunteer visiting acertain evacuation camp to report on whatsupplies are needed. The site also providesinformation on evacuee reception, evacuationcamps, NPOs and donations. The site’s beingaccessed two million times a day, or 60 milliona month, has made me feel the enormousdemand for this service.

The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake occurredin 1995, which was when Yahoo! launched andthe Internet was in its early stages. Cell phoneshad only spread to about 10% of the populationand the ability to access the Internet from themwas very limited. I had not yet entered the cellphone business and in a sense considered itnone of my business. But seeing cell phonenetworks fail before my very eyes this timearound, I was deeply shocked. Lives may havebeen saved had cell phones worked.

And looking at questionnaires filled out atdisaster-hit areas, I found that many peoplewanted cell phones to work more than theywanted food or anything else. This made meagain think of my responsibility and my

powerless was indescribably frustrating.

So I resolved that SoftBank wil l offerearthquake orphans free cell phone serviceuntil they turn 18 years old, all disaster-hitareas and evacuation camps will be given freepublic iPads, and I personally will donate 10billion yen together with my executive pay.

How should we counter internationalmisinformation and its effects?

I personally visited an evacuation camp inFukushima. A high level of caesium 137 sixtimes that found in evacuated areas around theChernobyl plant was detected from soil inIidate Village, and radioactive contaminationwas going to remain for a long time. Fukushimaevacuees are suffering severe anxiety.

I conducted a questionnaire from my Twitteraccount on the government policy concerningvoluntary evacuation within the 20-30 kmradius, and 85% responded that the policy istoo vague and indecisive regarding what peopleshould do. When left to decide for themselves,and if elderly people living alone or bedriddenpatients cannot evacuate, those who supportthem with food, gas and other provisions wouldhave to remain as well, this would increase thenumber of victims.

Mistaken information about radiation and itseffects has spread not only throughout thenation but overseas as well. The trend ofavoiding Japanese products is seen not onlywith vegetables and other food but withindustrial goods as well. To eradicate suchdamage from misinformation, we mustannounce our figures measured under theNuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA)standard together with the global InternationalAtomic Energy Agency (IAEA) standard. Nomatter how well thought out the Japaneseoriginal standard may be the world will notaccept it.

For example, the IAEA standard for soil surveys

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samples a 1 square meter layer of soil 1-3 cmbelow the surface and measures becquerels persquare meter. But the Japanese standardsamples soil 5 cm from the surface andmeasures becquerels per kilogram. Dust andparticles carry and spread radioactiveelements, which take time to penetrate 5 cminto the soil. Foreign nations, at least, see thatthe Japanese method would yield lower figures,and doubts spread that Japanese figures mightpossibly be lower than the actual state.

Something else also concerns me. On April 6,the Minis try o f Internal Af fa irs andCommunications issued an official noticerequesting “relevant ministries and agencies tocollaborate against comments and informationon the Internet that violate laws or publicorder, asking website operators to voluntarilydelete them and taking appropriate actionagainst such operators,” which was also postedon its website. This is an extremely dangerousidea that could lead to repression of freespeech. We know very well having seenrevolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and other MiddleEastern regions how governments that repressfree speech on the Internet end up.

I understand that the government has nointention of controlling the Internet, but Isincerely hope it will be extremely careful onthis issue. Some foreign nations are alreadycommenting that they hope to see nothingresembling speech repression in advanced anddemocratic Japan. I offer my strong warning forthe sake of Japan’s trust.

Nuclear power plant construction peakedin the mid-’80s

Telecommunications cannot work withoutelectricity, and nuclear power plants aredangerous, but electricity in Japan will notcome without nuclear power plants. At leastthis is what I had thought. I did some researchon this and learned quite a few things.

In responding to the nuclear plant incident,

Prime Minister Kan has already made his standclear on three points: We need to reevaluatethe conventional safety standards (on existingnuclear power plants); we need to evaluate(plans for building new plants) from scratchand we will pursue safety in nuclear powerwhile we work proactively toward cleanenergy.” I am in favor of these ideas. I wish tooffer some specific suggestions to push themfurther.

As we are wel l aware, Japan’s powerproduction is comprised of 30% nuclear energy,9% hydraulic and other natural energy and61% thermal energy. People panicked that ifwe lose nuclear plants we would lack electricityand the Kanto area would have to undergorolling blackouts. But arguments that beganseveral days ago are saying that we couldprobably get along without nuclear power byincreasing thermal power.

How long does a nuclear power plant lastanyway? A reactor pressure vessel deterioratesas neutrons continue bouncing against it, andbecomes more fragile against earthquakes andrising temperatures. When we look at thelifespan of nuclear power plants around theworld until shutdown, we find that the averageis 22 years. I was very surprised that few in theworld remain in operation beyond 40 years.

Just because nuclear power plants aredangerous, we realistically cannot stop themtoday at th is very instant . But i f weintentionally halted nuclear plants when they

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reached a 40-year lifespan, the power theyproduced would naturally decline unless weconstructed new ones.

Until a month ago, I had believed that nuclearpower was the global trend and that nationsaround the world are building more nuclearpower plants in order to reduce carbon dioxide.But the nuclear power plant boom was actuallyin the mid-1980s (Figure 1). Hardly any newnuclear plants were built after this period. Thisamazed me.

If we were to maintain the current level ofelectrical power provided by nuclear plants, wewould have to build so many of them again, aswe did in the ’80s when production peaked. Buthaving experienced the Fukushima events,would the world welcome a move towardconstructing new nuclear power plants whenwe have so few of them now? I think we thepeople need to discuss this issue again.

Either way, as the prime minister says, we mustraise operation safety standards of existingnuclear power plants. Some of my suggestionsare: (1) Principally halt all reactors whose liveshave expired, (2) Prohibit exchange ofexecutives/officials among the Ministry ofEconomy, Trade and Industry (METI), NuclearSafety Commission, Nuclear Industrial andSafety Agency (NISA) and the powercompanies, (3) Toughen safety assessmentsconcerning cracks and other abnormalities, (4)Safely disclose information on abnormalities,(5) Release IAEA international standard figurestogether with Japanese figures and (6)Reevaluate operation of plants in areas ofheightened earthquake risk.

Are nuclear power plants actually cheapwhile natural energy is expensive?

From the standpoint of practical, economicallogic, solar power and natural energy areexpensive. I had always believed that nuclearpower was the most inexpensive way ofproducing power, at 5-6 yen per kilowatt-hour;

therefore we have to use nuclear power andconstruct new plants. I am sure that manypeople thought the same.

But is this really true? According to figureslisted on an application for approval of thenuclear power plant installation, its unit cost is15-20 yen. This is the actual data; the pre-accident cost.

So then what happens if we add the cost of theaccident? TEPCO obviously should pay this, butany cost beyond its capacity will fall to thegovernment; in other words, tax. If we includethe full cost of the accident, nuclear power mayin fact be the most expensive form of energy.

As this example illustrates, the true cost ofnuclear power should include local subsidies,nuclear waste processing costs and accidentcoverage. We need to reevaluate the legitimacyof “5-6 yen,” which was the initial hook, butnow seems somewhat off.

Moreover, 15 yen was a figure derived fromcommodity prices 30 years ago, so I wonderwhat the figure per kilowatt-hour (kWh) wouldbe for a new nuclear power plant today. Thenumber 3 reactor at Olkiluoto Nuclear PowerPlant in Finland was slated for an initialconstruction budget of 350 billion yen, but thework was continually delayed as safetystandards continued to rise, and has alreadycost 1.5 trillion yen despite still having noschedule for completion. Accounting only forcapital investment and without fuel oroperating costs, the plant already costs 14yen/kWh, and fuel and operating costs wouldadd to this. The world no longer makes newnuclear power plants because the truth is, asthis case shows, they come at a huge cost.

A graph shows some surprising data. Powerproduction costs for solar and nuclear energyin the U.S. crossed over each other last year, in2010 (Figure 2). I, like many others, hadthought that natural energy was ideal butexpensive, that solar power would not work in

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the rain or at night, and nuclear energy couldmass-produce and was inexpensive. But acrossover of the two actually occurred lastyear, with all the rain and night concernsaccounted for and looking only at productioncost during operation. Looking at this casemakes us think that we must shift our energypolicy toward realizing a society in which everycitizen can feel safe.

Government policy changes society

Power production using natural energy iscurrently increasing at a dramatic level inEurope, the United States and China. The keyto this increase is government policy. InGermany, the feed-in tariff policy began in2000, allowing any electricity producer to haveits product purchased by power companies at61 yen/kWh for the next 20-25 years. A 2004revision of the policy raised the purchase priceto 65 yen. The mere act of the governmentdetermining such policy sparked competitionamong private companies and prompted anexplosive spread of solar power generation.(Figure 3)

In Europe, countries like Germany, France andSpain have set a target of supplying 20%-30%of their energy from natural sources by theyear 2020, which people now believe could beaccomplished faster than anticipated. Thelatest data confirms that countries such as

Germany enforce the purchase of all producedpower at 40-60 yen/kWh for 20-25 years. Japanis currently discussing purchase of surpluspower for 10 years. I truly believe that weshould set figures at the European level orAmerican level of purchasing all producedpower at 40 yen/kWh for 20 years to allowprivate businesses to compete and develop amarket. Otherwise, businesses will not think ofproducing power since the returns will notmatch their investment.

Looking at trends of the next 10 and 20 yearsbrings an expectation that fossil fuel prices willrise. On the other hand, costs are declining fornatural energy, owing to effects of massproduction and technological innovation asseen in the U.S. It is time for our governmentto draw up a grand vision.

The average monthly electricity bill of acommon household is about 8,000 yen, and ifwe account for the 40 yen for 20 yearspurchase price in this, the bill temporarily risesby about 500 yen. But this buys us safety andassurance. Fossil fuel prices will continue torise, and nuclear power plants will furtherinvolve accident costs. There is no need for usto resort to more dangerous and expensiveoptions.

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At the same time, we must reduce carbondioxide. For us to head toward a clean andmore inexpensive option over the long term,are we all not capable of facing up to theresponsibility and bearing the temporary addedburden of 500 yen? The government should beacquiring this consensus from its citizens.

This requires no large-scale financialinvestments from the government. All thegovernment needs to do is take the solar powerpurchasing policy it is already discussing onestep further and simply add a line, “Purchase ofall produced power at 40 yen for 20 years” orshift the policy in that direction. Recall the U.S.case given above: Is it not sheer nonsense tocling to nuclear power when it will recede inthe future instead of taking the path that isalready crossing over and which will definitelylead to cost reduction?

Feeling that I should produce action instead ofjust talk, I established a Natural EnergyFoundation to bear my share of responsibilityas a citizen and decided to personally input onebillion yen. I am hoping that the people of theworld gather their wisdom here to present theirresearch findings and give proposals forgovernment policies. It is a dream of mine tosee the foundation trigger discussion and play arole in offering practical alternatives to nuclearenergy.

The sun will rise again

Solar, solar thermal, wind, geothermal,biomass, oceanic energy and other blessings ofnature can be used for thousands of yearswithout contaminating the Earth. These areforms of energy that coexist with naturewithout destroying it. I have one suggestion tomake concerning a vision on recovering fromthe quake. It is known that land salinized by thetsunami cannot be cultivated for the nextdecade. How much money would it take to“recover” such farmland and create tallerembankments? What future do we see there?Can the government instead take the lead in

creating an “East Japan Solar Belt” as an areafor producing new energy for the future?

Ports of the past could gain new life as ports ofsolar and wind energy. Such a recovery projectwould create huge job opportunities for theregion’s people, and Japanese manufacturersalready have the number-one solar technologyin the world. Instead of exporting it, we shoulduse it domestically to create the world’s largestSolar Belt.

In this way, the sun of 21st century Japanwould rise again rather than continuing to set.And with safety and assurance, people couldlive on this land for many thousands of years. Ibelieve that our nation can come up with such ahopeful vision.

Translated from “Higashi-nihon ni sora-aberuto chitai wo: Taiyo no minato, kaze nominato de nihon ha yomigaeru,” Sekai, June2011, pp. 44–51, by Son Masayoshi. Japan EchoW e b(http://www.japanechoweb.jp/diplomacy-politics/jew0704) No. 7 August-September 2011

SON MasayoshiCha i rman & CEO, SOFTBANK Corp .Representative Director & President, YahooJapan Corporation. Born 1957 in SagaPrefecture. Graduated from the EconomicsDepartment of the University of California,Berkeley. Founded SOFTBANK Corp. Japan in1981. Established the Broadband Association in2003 and assumed the role of RepresentativeChairman.

Recommended citation: Son Masayoshi andAndrew DeWit, 'Creating a Solar Belt in EastJapan: The Energy Future,' The Asia-PacificJournal Vol 9, Issue 38 No 2, September 19,2011.

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• W a k a m i y a Y o s h i b u m i(http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201109010279.html), INTERVIEW: Masayoshi Son off onnew quest to raise green profile. The AsahiShimbun September 2, 2011

• F u j i o k a A t s u s h i(https://apjjf.org/-Fujioka-Atsushi/3599),Understanding the Ongoing Nuclear Disaster inFukushima: A “Two-Headed Dragon” Descendsinto the Earth’s Biosphere

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• A n d r e w D e W i t a n d S v e n S a a l e r(https://apjjf.org/-Andrew-DeWit/3525), Politicaland Policy Repercussions of Japan’s Nuclearand Natural Disasters in Germany

• K a n e k o M a s a r u(https://apjjf.org/-Kaneko-Masaru/3508), ThePlan to Rebuild Japan: When You Can’t GoBack, You Move Forward. Outline of anEnvironmental Sound Energy Policy