Core theme 3: Quantification of the carbon sources and sinks at

the European regional scale

•WP12: Regional assessment for the North Sea

•WP13: Regional assessment for the West Mediterranean

•WP14: European Integration

Helmuth Thomas and CT3 partners

Please visit our posters in the PhD and regular poster sessions

Operational goals:To assess the•(Variability of) Carbon uptake and release from / to atmosphere•C-Exchange between:

•Marginal seas, land, atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean•Full carbon budget for Western Europe; with CarboEurope IP).

Core theme 3:

WP 12:Regional assessment for the North Sea

Ob

serv

ati

on

s

Statistical model (generalized additive mixed model):produces 10 000 estimates for each position

mon

thly

m

ean

s &

std

-err

ors

for

SS

T,

fCO

2,

…

Distribution SimulatorRandomly draws 10000 combinations for each Lat & Loncomputes solubility, transfer velocity, fCO2 gradient and

flux

2.5 percentile 97.5 percentile50 perc.

fCO2SST wind speed

For each lon. & lat.:10 000 estimates mean & std-error

For each lon. & lat.: median & confidenceinterval

fCO2 and SST

Climatology SSS (1°x1°)NCEP/NCAR wind speed (2°x2°)Atmospheric xCO2 from Mace Head,

Ireland

Public data VOS data

abdir.omar@gfi.uib.no

Determining the reliability of CO2 air-sea flux estimates

See poster by Omar et al. for details

Evolving topic in WP12

Ecosystem metabolism vs. CO2 air-sea fluxes:

How does the trophic state (autotrophy vs., heterotrophy relate to CO2 air-sea fluxes?

Net community production (NCP) =

Gross Primary Production (GPP) – community respiration (CR)

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M

Time

DO

C [

mg/

l]

observed DOC

modelled DOC

inflection point

2006 2007

Estimating organic carbon fluxesbetween North Sea and Baltic Sea

See talk and poster by Kulinski et al. for details

Assessing the DOC source:DOC = f(Salinity, Chl. A, Phaepigment)

DO

C [

mg

/L]

Time

• Metabolic balance, i.e., the gross primary production to community respiration (GPP:CR) ratio, co-governs direction of CO2 air sea fluxes

• Determination in the field is expensive

• Artificial neural network (ANN):

GPP:CR = f (depth, DOC, Temp)

• ANNs can provide a robust tool for the determination of ecosystem metabolism in coastal ecosystems

Metabolic balance of coastal ecosystems

Belgian coastal zone (North Sea)

Nutrient inputs (kT yr -1)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

10

20

30

40DINDIP

0

2

4

6

DIN

DIP

Air-sea CO2 flux (mol C m-2 yr-1)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8source of CO2

sink of CO2

Organic carbon inputs (T yr -1)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

5

10

15

20

NEP (mol C m-2 yr-1)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.6

-0.8

0.0

0.8

1.6

heterotrophic

autotrophic

Gypens, Borges & Lancelot (in prep.) See posters by Gypens et al. for details

Belgian coastal zone (North Sea)

Gypens, Borges & Lancelot (in prep.) See poster by Gypens et al. for details

Annual air-sea CO2 vs NEP fluxes

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500

Annual NEP (mmol m-2 y-1)

An

nu

al a

ir-s

ea C

O2

(mm

ol

m-2

y-1

)

Annual NEP [mmol m-2 y-1]

Ann

ual C

O2

air-

sea

flux

[mm

ol m

-2 y

-1]

Source

Sink

Offset CO2 uptake:≈300mmol m-2y-1

WP12/14Land-Ocean boundary: Wadden Sea

CO2 flux from a tidal flat area

CO2 flux during darkness

y = 0,0342e0,1307x

R2 = 0,7915

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

0 10 20 30 40Temperature (oC)

CO

2 f

lux

(µ

mo

l m

-2 s

-1)

all daysMay 15, 2007Aug 13, 2007Expon. (all days)

Fluxes during the year

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

0 100 200 300

Day of year

CO

2 fl

ux (

µm

ol

m-2 s

-1)

light2007

dark2007

light2006

dark2006

source

sink

WORKPACKAGE 13.- Regional assessment for the West-Mediterranean

Work package objectives1) To create the data sets, measurement systems, and model set-ups as prerequisite for a quantitative estimate of Mediterranean carbon fluxes and Mediterranean/Atlantic carbon exchanges.2) To assess the concentration of anthropogenic CO2 in the W. Mediterranean.

Universite de Perpignan

Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

L'Institut National de Recherche Halieutique

CARBOGIB7 (07.05.2007-08.05.2007) CARBOGIB8 (04.07.2007-05.07.2007)CARBOGIB9 (06.11.2007-07.11.2007)CARBOGIB10 (NEXT WEEK)

-6 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4 -5.2 -535.6

35.7

35.8

35.9

36

36.1

36.2

36.3

Tanger

Punta C am arinal

C AM AR IN AL SEC TIO N

G IFT SEC TIO N

AD CP M O O R IN G

G 1

C B3

MOROCCO

SPAIN

G3

CB1

CB5

CB2

CB4

Two sampling sections: CAMARINALGIFT (GIbraltar Fixed Time series)

Four more campaigns have been performed from month 25 (January 2007) to month 37 (December 2007) on board the Moroccan RV Al Amir Moulay Abdellah in the Strait of Gibraltar.

The periodic sampling aims at examining the temporal variability of the carbon system variables in the strait and the mechanisms controlling the exchange between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.

r ²0.957

CARBOGIB 7 CARBOGIB 8

r ²0.976

MEDITERRANEAN WATERS ARE MUCH MORE ALKALINEAND ENRICHED IN TOTAL CARBON

Atlantic inflow

Atlantic inflow

Mediterranean outflow

Mediterranean outflow

A data set containing results from 6 cruises and a VOS line using Research Vessels passing through the Strait of Gibraltar has been generated (D13.11)

Anthro. CO2 2006

δ pH 2006

Touratier et al.

The Mediterranean Sea:The Mediterranean Sea:A very high COA very high CO22 and acidified environment and acidified environment

Scenarios of total national emissions of carbonin CO2 for EU-25

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Gt

C/

yr CAFE/PRIMES model w ithoutfurther climate measures

Energy and Transport Trends to2030 - Baseline scenario

EEA Baseline scenario (LREM-E)

(CAFE) Baseline scenariow ithout climate policies

CAFE/PRIMES model w ith furtherclimate measures

EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathw ay w ith phase outnuclear

EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathw ay (LGEP)

EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathw ay w ithaccelerated nuclear

CAFE Baseline scenario w ithclimate policies

EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathw ay w ithrenew ables targets

Scenarios of total national emissions of carbonin CH4 for EU-25

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

year

Mt

C/ y

ea

r

EEA Baseline scenario (LREM-E)2005

EEA Low Greenhouse gas EmissionPathway (LGEP) 2005

EEA projections with existingmeasures (2006)

EEA projections with additionalmeasures (2006)

EEA projections with existingmeasures (2003)

EEA projections with additionalmeasures (2003)

WP14:

European Integration CARBOOCEAN – CARBOEUROPE:

Martin Heimann’s talk earlier todayand Harro Meijer’s talk on Thursday