Cooking Energy and the SE4All Agenda

Shonali Pachauri June 28, 2013 Bonn Cooking Energy Forum

SE4All Access Goals: Current Status and Recent Trends Target by 2030: 100% electrification Current Status: ~20% lack access 30% rural unelectrified Trend 2000-2010: Global 79% to 83% Rural 57% to 70%

Target by 2030: 100% clean cooking Current Status: ~40% lack access 65% rural without access Trend 2000-2010: Global 54% to 59% Rural almost unchanged

Trends in Traditional Biomass Dependence

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2009

Popu

latio

n in

Mill

ions

Dep

ende

nt o

n B

iom

ass

Sub-Saharan Africa IndiaChina Rest of Developing AsiaIndonesia Latin America & CaribbeanNorth Africa & Middle East

1875

2010

1875

2010

1965

2010

1965

2010

1965

2010

1965

2010

1965

2010

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

500 5,000 50,000

Trad

ition

al b

iom

ass

shar

e in

fina

l ene

rgy

Average GDP in international 1990 GK$/capita

WORLD USA

Brazil China

India Ghana

Nigeria

Source: Pachauri et al., ‘Energy Access for Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1401-1458.

Current Distribution of Clean Cooking Access Globally

Dependence on Solid Fuels by Nation

Source: UNDP & WHO 2009

Disparities in Household Access to Gaseous and Electric Cooking

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ban

glad

esh

Bol

ivia

Cam

bodi

a

Col

ombi

a

Egyp

t

Gha

na

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Mal

i

Nep

al

Peru

Rw

anda

Sene

gal

Uga

nda

Tanz

ania

Zim

babw

e

Perc

enta

ge o

f Hou

seho

lds

Source: DHS Surveys from 2005 to 2010. Markers represent National Averages, Top of Bar is Urban Average & Bottom of Bar is Rural Average

Solid Fuels Dominate Household Final Energy Use E.g.– Ghana 2005

Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305.

Affordability of Modern Cooking Fuels by Population Sub-Groups

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85%Fuel Price Support

Urban – H. Income

Rural - H. Income

Urban – M. Income

Rural – M. Income

Urban - L. Income Rural - L. Income

Sub-Saharan Africa 2030 Population

With Access

Source: Nagai 2012

Without New Efforts Clean Cooking Access will Worsen by 2030

Source: Pachauri et al. 2013

Population Dependent on Solid Fuels

Changes in GHG Emissions Due to Access Policies by Region

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

South Asia Pacific Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

GH

G E

mis

sion

s (G

t CO

2-eq

)

2005 2030 No New Policies 2030 Universal Access

Net Impacts on emissions are negligible

Source: Pachauri et al. 2013

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2005 2030

Millio

ns o

f dea

ths

ALRI in children <5 COPD in women>30 COPD in men>30Lung cancer in adults Ischaemic heart disease in adults

Health Benefits of Access to Modern Cooking – AFR, SAS & PAS

Over 1 million lives saved annually

Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305.

GTF- Multi-Tier Framework for Measurement of Cooking Solutions

Source: World Bank. 2013

Step 1:Technical Performance

Step 2: Actual Use

Are we on Track?

• Are we measuring the right things? – How will elements of adequacy such as

availability, reliability of supply, renewability of biomass and affordability be measured?

• Is the baseline we have today accurate or complete?

• How do we meet the targets?

Thank You