DEVELOPMENT OF PATHWAYS TO ACHIEVE THE

SE4ALL ENERGY EFFICIENCY OBJECTIVE:

Global and regional potential for energy efficiency improvements

J. Gregg, O. Solér, O. Balyk, C. Cabrera Pérez, S. La Greca

68th Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting

Sophia Antipolis, France

UN SE4ALL objectives

The 2030 objectives of the SE4ALL:

1) universal access to modern energy services

2) a doubling of the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency

3) a doubling of the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix

Guiding Question/ Objective

To determine what additional policy measures and technological developments are necessary in order to achieve the 2030 SE4ALL objectives for

• energy efficiency,

• renewable energy, and

• universal access to modern energy services.

Related questions:

• Regional and sectoral EE potential

• Effect on emissions and climate targets

• Co-Compatibility/ Synergy of targets

Method

Changes in:energy savings,

costs, tech profile, energy intensity, tech penetration,

GHG concentration, etc.

Alternative Pathway

Reference Scenario

2030: -universal access

-renewable energy targets-energy intensity targets

Current: -carbon price

-energy efficiency policies-traditional biomass use

-technology profiles

Alternative Scenario

ETSAP-TIAMReferencePathway

Assessment of Pathway

ETSAP-TIAM

Scenarios / Pathways

• Extensive scenario analysis conducted by IEA and IIASA in the literature, considering hundreds of scenarios and determining whether or not they meet the SE4ALL objectives.

• Current policies for EE, RE, and carbon are used to create the reference pathway. These inputs are included in all model runs.

• Alternative pathways are fixed exogenous inputs

• RE pathway from IRENA

• EE pathway a linear approach to 2.6% EIIR (Energy Intensity Improvement Rate) by 2030.

• Energy Access

Model Runs

•Reference - incl. current carbon policy, energy efficiency policy, energy efficiency barriers, and renewable energy share.

•Energy Efficiency (EE) - Achieve 2.6% EIIR by 2030 (this target approached linearly in the pathway)

•Renewable Energy (RE) - renewable energy targets such that the share of global renewable energy is doubled by 2030. Region-specific targets follow those outlined by International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) global renewable roadmap (REMap2030).

•EE and RE - combines the constraints from both the energy efficiency and renewable energy scenarios.

•EE, RE and Energy Access (EA) – increased electricity demand and phasing out of traditional biomass in addition to EE and RE constraints

ETSAP-TIAM Regions

ETSAP-TIAM Regions

AFR Africa

AUS Australia & NZ

CAN Canada

CHI China

CSA Central and South America

EEU Eastern Europe

FSU Former Soviet Union

IND India

JPN Japan

MEA Middle East

MEX Mexico

ODA Other Developing Asia

SKO South Korea

USA United States

WEU Western Europe

ETSAP-TIAM Structure

Climate

Module

Atm. Conc.

ΔForcing

ΔTemp

Used for

reporting &

setting

targets

Biomass

Potential

Renewable

Potential

Nuclear

Fossil Fuel

Reserves

(oil, coal, gas)

ExtractionUpstream

Fuels

Trade

Secondary

Transformation

OPEC/

NON-OPEC

regrouping

Electricity

Fuels

Electricity

Cogeneration

Heat

Hydrogen production

and distribution

End Use

Fuels

Industrial

Service

CompositionAuto Production

Cogeneration

Carbon

captureCH4 options

Carbon

sequestration

Terrestrial

sequestration

Landfills ManureBio burning, rice,

enteric fermWastewater

CH4 options

N2O options

CH4 options

OI****

GA****

CO****

Trade

ELC***

WIN SOL

GEO TDL

BIO***

NUC

HYD

BIO***

HETHET

ELCELC

SYNH2

BIO***

CO2

ELC

GAS***

COA***

Industrial

Tech.

Commercial

Tech.

Transport

Tech.

Residential

Tech.

Agriculture

Tech.I***

I** (6)T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)

INDELC

INDELC

IS**

Demands

IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***

Non-energy

sectors (CH4)

OIL***

Time frame

• ETSAP-TIAM is calibrated to IEA 2005 data and this is the model base year

• Demand driver data were updated to 2010 data (IEA, World Bank, OECD)

• Modelling done on 5-year time steps until 2030.

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

AFRAUSCANCHICSAEEUFSUINDJPNMEAMEXODASKOUSAWEUGlobal

Population Indices

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

AFR

AUS

CAN

CHI

CSA

EEU

FSU

IND

JPN

MEA

MEX

ODA

SKO

USA

WEU

Global

GDP PPP Indices

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

AFRAUSCANCHICSAEEUFSUINDJPNMEAMEXODASKOUSAWEUGlobal

Per Capita GDP Indices

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

AFRAUSCANCHICSAEEUFSUINDJPNMEAMEXODASKOUSAWEUGlobal

Size of Households

Details on Sectors

• Buildings (Residential and Commercial)

• Building envelope efficiency added as an option for investment

• Traditional biomass use in developed regions separated and phased out for residential cooking, heating, and hot water

• Transport

• Updated, new efficiency measures included for gasoline and diesel ICE (from Tom Kober, ECN)

• Includes Hybrids, EV and Hydrogen

• Industry

• Updated to allow for investments in energy efficiency (from Tom Kober, ECN)

– Non-metalic minerals

– Chemicals

– Non-ferrous metals

– Pulp and paper

– Other industries

Energy Efficiency in Buildings

RESBEI

COMBEI

𝑅𝐸𝑆𝐻𝑆

𝑅𝐸𝑆𝐶𝑆

Heat pumps

Chillers

Others tech

Residential space heating demand

Residential space cooling demand

Heat pumps

Wood stoves

Others tech

heating savings

cooling savings

Traditional Biomass

• Traditional Biomass is not represented explicitly in ETSAP-TIAM, but should not be counted as a modern renewable energy source

• Very little in the literature about this topic

• Estimates taken from GCAM 3.2 reference run

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

An

nu

al C

on

sum

pti

on

(P

J)

MEX

CSA

ODA

IND

CHI

AFR

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

An

nu

al C

on

sum

pti

on

(P

J)

MEX

CSA

ODA

IND

CHI

AFR

Reference Alternative:Meeting SE4ALL universal access objective

Carbon Price

Carbon Price

Region Industry Power Heat Buildings

Transport

(excluding

Aviation)

Agriculture Oil Coal

AFR

AUS

CAN 4.68 6.39 1.00

CHI 0.88 0.88 0.88

CSA

EEU 5.51 5.51 5.51

FSU 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.63 0.63

IND

JPN 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16

MEA

MEX 0.62 1.00

ODA

SKO 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93

USA 0.06 0.14

WEU 7.02 11.35 7.02 5.43

Calculated by scaling proportion of emissions from sector/fuel/area within each region.In 2005 USD per tonne CO2.

Energy Efficiency Targets

• Considered on a case by case basis. Scaled by country/sector on energy consumption data from Enerdata.

• GDP exogenous, so a target on energy intensity can be set in ETSAP-TIAM exogenously

Barriers to Energy Efficiency• Calculated from historical improvement rates in energy intensity (averaged

over 5 years to remove noise in data).

• Back calculated from exogenous GDP input in ETSAP-TIAM

Energy Intensity

RegionHistoric Max Energy Intensity Decrease

(%/year)Africa -2.16%

Australia/ New Zealand -2.52%

Canada -3.05%

China -3.95%

Central and South America -1.60%

Eastern Europe -5.42%

Former Soviet Union -5.49%

India -3.56%

Japan -2.24%

Middle East -0.74%

Mexico -3.08%

Other Developing Asia -1.82%

South Korea -2.28% (-2.75%)

USA -2.62%

Western Europe -2.19%

Combined Europe -2.36%

Renewable Energy Share

Based on IRENA REMap 2030. Alternative scenario is based on “Realistic Potential”.

RESULTS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

EJ/y

ear

Reference

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

EJ/y

ear

Renewable

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

EJ/y

ear

Energy Efficiency

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

EJ/y

ear

EE & RE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

EJ/y

ear

EE, RE & Energy Access

Renewable except hydroand biomassHydro

Biomass

Traditional Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Total Primary Energy Consumption

5.6

4.94.5 4.3 4.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Reference

5.6

4.94.5 4.3 4.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Renewable

5.6

4.94.5

4.13.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Energy Efficiency

5.64.9

4.54.1

3.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

EE & RE

5.6

4.94.5

4.13.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

EE, RE & Energy Access Title

AFR AUS

CAN CHI

CSA EEU

FSU IND

JPN MEA

MEX ODA

SKO USA

WEU Global

Primary Energy Intensity of GDP (MJ/USD 2005)

Final Energy Consumption

Reference

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

EJ/Y

ear

Industry Transport Residential

Commercial Agriculture

Energy Efficiency

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

EJ/Y

ear

Industry Transport Residential

Commercial Agriculture

Savings in FEC (2015-2030): EE vs. REF

By sector By regionAgriculture

0%Commercial

5%

Industry48%

Residential14%

Transport33%

AFR1%

CHI22%

CSA9%

EEU1%

FSU7%

IND12%

MEA3%

SKO2%

USA25%

WEU18%

Total savings: 16 EJ

CO2 Emissions in 2030 (Gt CO2/year)

31.4

44.4

36.5

42.6

34.836.5

RCP 2.6 Reference Energy Efficiency(EE)

RenewableEnergy (RE)

EE&RE EE&RE&EA

Conclusions

• Largest amount of energy saving occurs in industry and transportation sector.

• The regions were most of energy savings in FEC takes place are: USA, CHI, and WEU

• Even achieving the RE and EE targets, additional climate policies will be necessary to achieve a path to a 2-degree target

• Even more so when the Energy Access target is considered

Questions?

Thank you for attention!