Compatibility of the SE4ALL Energy Efficiency Objective with Renewable Energy, Energy Access, and Climate

Mitigation Targets Jay Gregg1, Olexandr Balyk1, Ola Solér1, Simone La Greca1,

Cristian Hernán Cabrera Pérez1, Tom Kober2

1Systems Analysis, Technical University of Denmark

2Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands

jsgr@dtu.dk

Motivation

• Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) o Double energy efficiency (reduce global energy

intensity of GDP by half) o Double global renewable energy share (18 to 36%) o Transition away from traditional biomass and

ensure electricity access to everyone o …by 2030

• Reduce CO2 emissions, prevent >2°C warming

GDP = Gross Domestic Product

Method

Changes in:Renewable Energy Profile

Energy Consumption,GHG Emissions

CostsAlternative Scenario

-Renewable Energy Targets for 2010-2030

-Energy Intensity Targetsfor 2010-2030

-Increased Energy Access & Phase-out Traditional Biomass

Current: -Carbon price

-Renewable Energy Profile-Energy efficiency trends-Traditional biomass use

-Technology profiles

ETSAP-TIAMReferenceScenario

Assessment of Regional Potentials

Sector & Subsector Potentials

ETSAP-TIAM

Scenarios Scenario

Regional EIIR

Global EIIR 1.3%

Global EIIR 2.6%

Regional RE IRENA

Ref

Regional RE IRENA

REMap

Global RE Doubling SE4ALL

Energy Access

i. Base ii. RefRegional fixed fixed iii. RefGlobal fixed fixed iv. RE fixed fixed v. EE fixed fixed vi. EE&RE fixed fixed vii. EE&RE&EA fixed fixed included viii. EEfree&REflex min ix. EEflex&REfree min x. EEflex&REflex min min xi. EEflex&REflex&EA min min included

EIIR = Energy Intensity Improvement Rate IRENA = International Renewable Energy Agency RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

Scenario Details • Ref:

o -1.3% CAGR in Primary Energy Intensity of GDP o RE IRENA reference (IRENA, 2016)

• EE:

o -2.6% CAGR in Energy Intensity • RE:

o IRENA REmap 2030 Realistic Potential (IRENA, 2016) o SE4ALL RE doubling: 36% global RE share of Final Energy

(including traditional biomass) • EA:

o Complete phase out of traditional biomass & at least 750 kWh/year/capita electricity consumption in all regions

IRENA = International Renewable Energy Agency EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in Energy Intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy EA = Energy Access

CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

ETSAP-TIAM Regions

ETSAP-TIAM Regions

AFR Africa

AUS Australia & NZ

CAN Canada

CHI China

CSA Central and South America

EEU Eastern Europe

FSU Former Soviet Union

IND India

JPN Japan

MEA Middle East

MEX Mexico

ODA Other Developing Asia

SKO South Korea

USA United States

WEU Western Europe

Climate Module

Atm. Conc.ΔForcing ΔTemp

Used for reporting &

setting targets

Biomass Potential

Other Renewables

Nuclear

Fossil Fuel Reserves

(oil, coal, gas)Extraction Upstream

Fuels

Trade

Secondary Transformation

OPEC/NON-OPEC regrouping

Power and Heat Fuels

Electricity

Cogeneration

Heat

Hydrogen production and distribution

End Use Fuels

Industrial Service

CompositionAuto Production

Cogeneration

Carbon captureCH4 options Carbon

sequestrationTerrestrial

sequestration

Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater

CH4 options

N2O options

CH4 options

OI****

GA****CO****

Trade

ELC***

WIN SOL GEO TDL

BIO***

NUC

HYD

BIO***

HETHET

ELCELC

SYNH2

BIO***

CO2

ELC

GAS***COA***

Industrial Tech.

Commercial Tech.

Transport Tech.

Residential Tech.

Agriculture Tech.

I***

I** (6) T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)

INDELC

INDELCIS**

Demands

IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***

Non-energy sectors (CH4)

OIL***

Energy Efficiency

• Historic Trends in Energy Intensity Improvement Rate (EIIR)

• Energy Intensity Pathway when SE4ALL objectives are achieved

SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

Historic Trends in Global EIIR

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%19

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Rate

of C

hang

e (%

/yea

r)

Annual Change

5-year average

10-year average

20-year average

5-year CAGR

10-year CAGR

20-year CAGR

GTF 10-year CAGR

GTF 20-year CAGR

EIIR = Energy Intensity Improvement Rate, CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate, GTF = Global Tracking Framework

Regional Energy Intensity Pathways

EEflex&REflex&EA Scenario (SE4ALL Objectives Achieved)

Ambition of SE4ALL EE Target Region Average

Annual EIIR, 1990-2010

Historic Max EIIR, 1990-2010 (5- year rolling average)

Average Annual EIIR to meet SE4ALL EE objective

Greater than historic average?

Greater than historic max reduction over 5 year period?

Africa -0.9% -2.3% -1.7% YES Australia & NZ -1.3% -2.5% -2.8% YES YES Canada -1.4% -3.0% -0.9% China -4.3% -6.5% -3.9% Central & South America -0.6% -1.4% -1.7% YES YES Eastern Europe -3.0% -4.8% -2.5% Former Soviet Union -1.9% -5.5% -3.4% YES India -2.4% -3.4% -3.2% YES Japan -0.3% -1.8% -1.6% YES Middle East 1.0% -0.9% -3.1% YES YES Mexico -0.7% -2.4% -2.3% YES Other Developing Asia -1.1% -2.3% -2.7% YES YES South Korea -0.1% -2.4% -0.8% YES United States -1.7% -2.4% -2.4% YES equal Western Europe -1.2% -2.0% -1.7% YES Europe -1.5% -2.3% -1.6% YES Global 1 3% 2 0% 2 6% YES YES

Compatibility between EE and RE

• What is the effect on energy efficiency when the SE4ALL renewable energy objective is achieved?

• What is the effect on renewable energy when energy efficiency the SE4ALL objective is achieved?

EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

• Largest EE potential in China, FSU, and India

• RE target induces EE improvement

(~ ½ way to SE4ALL EE Objective)

Regional EIIR

Energy Intensity, by Scenario

SE4ALL EE Objective

SE4ALL Reference

SE4ALL RE Objective (~ ½ way to SE4ALL EE Objective)

SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy

Renewable Energy, by Scenario

SE4ALL RE Objective

IRENA Reference

IRENA REmap

SE4ALL EE Objective

(~ ½ way to SE4ALL RE Objective)

SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy

Compatibility of EA

• How does the Energy Access objective affect the renewable energy share of global final energy?

• What are the additional costs of achieving the Energy Access objective?

EA = Energy Access; universal electricity access and phase out of traditional biomass

RE% by region and sector

EA reduces RE% in Africa, requiring greater RE in the developed world. EA reduces RE% in Residential, requiring more reductions in transport and industry.

EA = Energy Access; universal electricity access and phase out of traditional biomass, RE% = Renewable share of final energy

Regional Investment by Scenario, Relative to Reference

Sectoral Investment by Scenario, Relative to Reference

CO2 Emissions

• How do the different SE4ALL objectives contribute to the climate change mitigation?

• What is relationship between costs and emissions reductions across scenarios?

SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

Emissions by Scenario

Emissions Versus Investment Costs

NPV = Net Present Value of investments 2010-2030, 5% discounting

General Conclusions • Achieving the SE4ALL EE objective on its own promotes RE

deployment half way to the SE4ALL RE objective. • …and vice versa • Taken alone, the EE objective reduces emissions more than

the RE objective, but is also more expensive. Both together reduce more than either alone, for only slightly more cost. i.e., it is cost effective to pursue EE and RE together.

• EA increases emissions slightly, and requires substantially more investment in the residential sectors of developing regions; transport and industry in developed regions.

• Achieving the SE4ALL objectives is compatible with keeping global warming under 2° (between 50 and 66% probability), but additional measures will likely be necessary.

EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

Sustainable Development Conclusions

• From a global cost optimization point of view, it is generally cheapest to replace traditional biomass with fossil-based energy.

• Linear models (with exogenous GDP) lack the capability to fully describe PESTLEG barriers, as well as the economic dynamics of providing energy access.

What is the effect of an improved energy infrastructure on GDP and energy consumption? • Area for future research

GDP = Gross Domestic Product PESTLEG = political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and governmental