consumer confidence - nielsen...2 quarter 4 2013 - global consumer confidence report globally •...
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C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLDQUARTER 4, 2013
2013 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 4TH EDITION
2 QUARTER 4 2013 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2
GLOBALLY • Globalconsumerconfidenceheldsteadyforthirdconsecutivequarter
withanindexof94
• Discretionaryspendingintentionsdeclinedinallregions
• Morethanhalfofrespondentsin46of60countriesfeltmiredinrecession
• Asia-PacificpostedtheonlyregionalconsumerconfidenceincreaseinQ4,uponeindexpoint
• RecoveryinEuropecontinuedtoshowslow,butsteadyprogress
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HELD STEADY AT THE END OF 2013, WHILE SPENDING INTENTIONS RETREATED
Globalconsumerconfidenceheldsteadywithanindexof94forthree
consecutivequarters,ending2013onepointhigherthanitstarted
(Q12013)andthreepointshigherthanthesametimeperiodthe
previousyear(Q42012),accordingtoconsumerconfidencefindings
fromNielsen,aleadingglobalproviderofinformationandinsightsinto
whatconsumerswatchandbuy.TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindex
measuresperceptionsoflocaljobprospects,personalfinancesand
immediatespendingintentions.
ConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificpostedtheonlyregionalquarter-
on-quarterincrease,risingoneindexpointto105.Regionalconsumer
confidencedeclinedthreeindexpointsinNorthAmerica(95),twopoints
inMiddleEast/Africa(90)andonepointinEurope(73),compared
3Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company 3
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Thefindingsinthissurveyarebasedonrespondentswithonline
accessacross60countries.Whileanonlinesurveymethodologyallows
fortremendousscaleandglobalreach,itprovidesaperspectiveonly
onthehabitsofexistingInternetusers,nottotalpopulations.
Indevelopingmarketswhereonlinepenetrationhasnotreached
majoritypotential,audiencesmaybeyoungerandmoreaffluentthan
thegeneralpopulationofthatcountry.Additionally,surveyresponses
arebasedonclaimedbehavior,ratherthanactualmetereddata.
toQ3.ConfidenceremainedflatinLatinAmericawithanindexof94.
Consumerconfidenceincreasedin26of60marketsinQ4,decreasedin
32andremainedflatintwo.
“Throughout2013,consumersaroundtheworldremainedinavirtual
holdingpatternasglobalunemploymentshowedfewsignsofprogress
duringtheyear,”saidDr.VenkateshBala,chiefeconomistatThe
CambridgeGroup,apartofNielsen.“Recoverycontinuestomovevery
slowlyandishamperedbycash-strappedconsumerswhograpplewith
havinglittlediscretionaryincomeafterpayingessentialexpenses.As
2014progresses,abrighteroutlookisexpected,butsluggishnesswill
continueuntilthereisamarkedimprovementinthejoblessrateand
wagesgoupcommensuratewithrisingcosts.”
TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending
Intentions,establishedin2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,
majorconcernsandspendingintentionsamongmorethan30,000
respondentswithInternetaccessin60countries.Consumerconfidence
levelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicatedegreesofoptimism
andpessimism.
Inthelatestroundofthesurvey,conductedNovember11–29,2013,
consumerconfidenceincreasedin43percentofmarketsmeasured
byNielsen,whichwas14percentagepointslowerthanthe57percent
reportedinthepreviousquarter(Q32013).Indonesiareportedthe
highestconsumerconfidenceindex(124)forthefourthconsecutive
quarter,risingfourindexpointscomparedtoQ3.Portugal,Italy,Croatia
andSloveniaeachreportedthelowestconsumerconfidenceindexof
44.Colombiareportedthebiggestquarter-on-quarterindexincreaseof
ninepointsforascoreof93;thebiggestdeclinecamefromPortugal,
decreasing11indexpoints.
4 QUARTER 4 2013 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ4-2013 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42013
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, PAKISTAN ASIA-PACIFIC
+3-4
+1-1
+1-3
-1
+2
+8
+4
+3
+3
+4
+1
-3
-1
0
+3
-1
-4
-2
-4+9
+1+2
-1+2+3-3+1+6-1-10
-3+8
-70
-6
-2
+1
-3
-1
+3
-1
+5
+4
-1
-4
+2
-2
-10
+6
-5-3
-3
-1
84 UN
ITED KIN
GD
OM
85 SWED
EN 86
SOUTH
AFRICA 86
AUSTRIA 87 TURKEY
89 ISRAEL
ITALY 44
93 COLOMBIA
GREECE 45
94 SWITZERLAND
SOUTH KOREA 49
HUNGARY 51
94 NORWAY
FRANCE 51
94 UNITED STATES
SERBIA
54
95 AUSTRALIA
SPAIN 58
95 GERMANY
ROMANIA 62
97 PAKISTAN
BULGARIA 62
97 SINGAPORE
UKRAINE 63
98 MALAYSIA
SLOVAKIA 65 98 VIETNAMFINLAND 67 99 CHILE
POLAND 69
100 CANADA
CZECH REPUBLIC 71
100 NEW ZEALAND
TAIWAN 73
101 SAUDI ARABIA
ESTONIA 73
102 PERU
VENEZUELA 74
105 DENMARK
BELGIUM 75
105 HONG KONG
LATVIA
76
109 THAILAND
EGYPT 7
6
110 B
RAZIL
IRELA
ND
77
110
UNITE
D ARAB EMIR
ATES
ARGENTIN
A
77
111
CHINA
NET
HERL
ANDS
77
114
PHIL
IPPI
NES
MEX
ICO
7
8
115
IN
DIA
RUSS
IA
79
JAPA
N
8
0LI
THU
ANIA
8
2
-3
SLOVENIA
44
+4
124
IN
DO
NES
IA
IND
EX
COU
NTR
Y
LESS
CONFIDENT
MORE CONFIDENT
-4
CROATIA
44
-11
PORTUGAL
44
94 GLOBAL
AVERAGE( 0 change from Q3-2013 )
INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM
5Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ4-2013 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
5
CASH-STRAPPED CONSUMERS SHOWED SPENDING RESTRAINTInacompletereversalfromQ3performance,Nielseninformation
showsthataroundtheworld,discretionaryspendingintentionsdeclined
acrossallcategoriesmeasuredinthefourthquarter.Spendingon
out-of-homeentertainment(28%)reportedthebiggestdecreaseof7
percentagepoints,comparedtoQ3.Intentionstospendonnewclothes
(31%),holidays/vacations(32%),andinvestinginstocksandmutual
funds(19%)eachdecreased6percentagepointsinthefourthquarter.
Savingintentions(47%),spendingonnewtechnology(24%)and
homeimprovementprojects(20%)declined5percentagepointseach.
Globally,15percentofonlinerespondentssaidtheyhadnosparecash,
anincreasefrom13percentreportedinQ3.
TherestraintinspendingintentionswasmostpronouncedinAsia-
Pacific,wherediscretionaryspendingintentionsdecreased12-percentage
pointsfornewclothesand10percentagepointseachforholidays/
vacations,out-of-homeentertainmentandinvestinginstocks.While60
percentofAsia-Pacificrespondentssaidtheyputcashintosavings—the
highestofanyregion—itwasadropfrom69percentreportedinQ3.
Spendingdeclineswerealsoreportedintheotherregions,albeittoa
lesserextent.Acrosseachoftheninespendingcategoriesmeasured,an
averagedeclineof4percentagepointswasreportedinNorthAmerica,
3percentagepointsintheMiddleEast/Africaand1percentagepointin
EuropeandLatinAmerica.
“Growthindevelopingmarketsisslowingandwithweakerprospects
thanbefore,theyarecompetingforinvestmentandfinancialresources
asadvancedeconomiesrecover,”saidDr.Bala.“Recession-minded
consumerswhoarealreadychallengedbyrisinglivingexpensesshowed
areluctancetospendleadinguptotheholidayseasonandkepttheir
moneyintheirwallets.”
6 QUARTER 4 2013 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONSUMERS PULLED BACK ON SPENDING IN Q4 2013
GLOBAL AVERAGE - SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS
Q3 2013 Q4 2013
SAVINGS PAYING DEBTS
52%
47%
HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS HOME IMPROVEMENTS
38%
32%
NEW CLOTHES INVESTING
38%
31%OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT RETIREMENT
35%
28%
NEW TECHNOLOGY NO SPARE CASH
29%
24%
28%
24%
25%
20%
25%
19%
14%
11%
13%
15%
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42013
7Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
GLOBAL AVERAGE - SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS
RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT LINGEREDEventhoughit’sbeenfouryearssincetheofficialendoftheGreat
Recession,notmuchhaschangedforthemajorityofconsumersaround
theworldwhostillfeltentangledinitswake.Morethanhalf(57%)of
globalrespondentsbelievedtheircountrywasinaneconomicrecession
inthefourthquarterof2013,littleimprovementfromthe56percent
thatfeltthesameatthestartoftheGreatRecessioninthefirstquarter
of2008.AttheheightoftheGreatRecessioninQ12009,77percentof
globalconsumerfeltmiredinrecession.
Forrespondentsinthree-quartersofthecountriessurveyed,the
recessionarysentimentreportedinQ42013wasactuallyworsethanthe
outlookreportedinQ12008.SinceQ12008,double-digitrecessionary
sentimentincreaseswerereportedin23countries,withthebiggest
changesinFinland(+68percentagepoints),Netherlands(+47pp),
Poland(+43pp),Vietnam(+37pp),Russia(+31pp),CzechRepublic
(+29pp),Ireland(+25pp),Venezuela(+24pp),Mexico(+22p),andIndia
(+20pp).
Onapositivenote,arecessionarysentimenthasgraduallydeclined
amongtheworld’slargesteconomies,includingtheU.S.,whichreported
adecreaseinrecessionarysentimentof14percentagepoints(compared
tothestartoftheGreatRecession).Germany’srecessionarysentiment
alsodecreased9percentagepoints,andJapan’ssentimentdecreased
3percentagepointssinceQ12008.
“Whiletherecoveryhasbeenpainfullyslow,itisimportanttopointout
thatrecoveryinmanykeyeconomiesisontherighttrack,”saidDr.Bala.
TheU.S.,Germany,Japanand33othercountries,whichincludesChina,
theUnitedKingdomandFrance,eachended2013withhigherconsumer
confidencescoresthanatthestarttheyear.”
8 QUARTER 4 2013 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
PERCENT THAT BELIEVE THEIR COUNTRY IS IN AN ECONOMIC RECESSION
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42013
COUNTRIES WITH IMPROVED RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION
81%
88%
92%
36%
77%
73%
85%
47%
61%
52%
83%
75%
ESTONIA
LATVIA
TURKEY
CHILE
INDONESIA
LITHUANIA
UNITED STATES
GERMANY
PHILIPPINES
NEW ZEALAND
HUNGARY
JAPAN
49%
63%
68%
14%
60%
57%
71%
38%
54%
46%
78%
72%
-32%
-25%
-24%
-22%
-17%
-16%
-14%
-9%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-3%
Q1 2008
Q42013
PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q4 2013 TO Q1 2008
100%50%0%
9Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
U.S. CONFIDENCE DECLINED; CANADA IMPROVEDU.S.consumerconfidencedeclinedfourindexpointsinthefourth
quarterof2013deliveringascoreof94,whichwasuponepointfrom
thestartoftheyearandfivepointsfromthesametimeperiodthe
previousyear(Q42012).Therecessionwasstillfirmlyonthemindsof
nearlythree-quarters(71%)ofAmericansandtheeconomywasthetop
concernforone-fourth(26%).
Fourth-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentionsintheU.S.also
retreatedfromthegainsreportedinQ3,declining7percentagepoints
forbuyingnewclothes(24%)andpayingoffdebts,creditcardsand
loans(31%).Spendingonout-of-homeentertainment(18%)declined
6percentagepoints,plansforhomeimprovements(19%)decreased
5percentagepoints,stashingcashintosavings(39%)decreased4
percentagepointsandbuyingnewtechnology(17%)declined4points,
comparedtoQ3.
“WhileU.S.consumerconfidencedeclinedinthefourthquarter,the
countryispoisedtobethekeygrowthengineoftheworldeconomy,”
saidDr.Bala.“OneofthebiggestchallengesfortheU.S.consumerwill
begettingwagesandincomestogrowtosupportconsumerdemand,
especiallyforthemiddleclass.”
“SpendingsetbacksformanyAmericanstranslatedtoweaker-than-
expectedholidaysalesatretail,”saidJamesRusso,seniorvicepresident,
GlobalConsumerInsights,Nielsen.“Onlineintentionsduringthe
holidayseason,however,faredbetter,as46percentsaidtheyshopped
onCyberMonday,anincreasefrom30percentlastyear.Asweenter
2014,theU.S.consumerremainsbifurcated,cautiousandpragmatic.”
10 QUARTER 4 2013 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
ConsumerconfidenceinCanadaincreasedthreeindexpointsinthe
fourthquarteraftertwoquartersofdeclinesdeliveringascoreof100,
whichremainedflatfromthesametimeperiodthepreviousyear(Q4
2012).Fourthquarterimprovementsinjobprospects,personalfinances
andspendingintentionshelpedbolsterconsumerconfidencefor
Canadians.
“Canadiansweremoreoptimisticabouttheirfinancesinthefourth
quarterandtookadvantageofcross-bordershoppingintheU.S.,”said
CarmanAllison,vicepresident,ConsumerInsights,NielsenCanada.
“InordertokeepspendinginCanada,manyretailersimplementedU.S.-
basedpromotionssuchasBlackFridayandCyberMondaytojumpstart
theholidayseason,whichtranslatedtoanincreaseinoverallretailsales
of3.5percentcomparedtolastyear.Whileconsumervolatilityremains,
lowerunemploymentandinflationlevelscontributedtotheoptimistic
sentimentamongCanadians.”
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN NORTH AMERICA
UNITED STATESCANADA
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42013
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
100
89
102
93
98 96 97
98 100
94
11Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
THE PACE OF RECOVERY WIDENED IN EUROPEConsumerconfidencefellin18of32marketsinEuropeinthefourth
quarterwiththebiggestindexdeclinescomingfromtheprevious
quarter’sbiggestgainers.Confidencedeclined11indexpointsin
Portugal,10pointsinFranceandsixpointsinBelgium,comparedtoQ3.
Nineoutof10countrieswiththelowestconsumerconfidencescores
hailedfromEurope,withPortugal,Croatia,Italy,GreeceandSloveniaat
thebottom.
Positivenews,however,camefromtheregion’slargesteconomy—
Germany,whichpostedaconfidencescoreof95,threepointshigher
thanQ3andeightpointsaheadofthesametimeperiodtheprevious
year(Q42012).Denmarkwastheonlycountryintheregiontopost
aconfidencescoreabovetheoptimismbaselinewithanindexof105.
MorethanhalfofrespondentsinSwitzerland(56%),Germany(56%)
andNorway(51%)citedconfidenceinjobprospectsfor2014.
“Europehasstabilized,butfacesalongandgradualroadtoeconomic
recovery,”saidDr.Bala.“Whileprogresshasbeenpainfullyslow,the
relativelevelsofpessimismintheregionarebetterthanayearagowhen
manyofEurope’skeyeconomieshitall-timelows.”
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42013
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN EUROPE
Q42013(CIRCLESDENOTEINDEXDIFFERENCEFROMQ3)
Denmark
Germany
Norway
Switzerland
Israel
Turkey
Austria
Sweden
UnitedKingdom
Lithuania
Russia
Ireland
Netherlands
Latvia
Belgium
Estonia
CzechRepublic
Poland
Finland
Slovakia
Ukraine
Romania
Bulgaria
Spain
Serbia
Hungary
France
Greece
Croatia
Slovenia
Italy
Portugal
105 |
95 |
94 |
94 |
89 |
87 |
86 |
85 |
84 |
82 |
79 |
77 |
77 |
76 |
75 |
73 |
71 |
69 |
67 |
65 |
63 |
62 |
62 |
58 |
54 |
51 |
51 |
45 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
2
3
-2
-4
1
2
-1
3
-3
1
-1
8
-1
0
-6
1
-1
3
-1
5
4
-4
-1
2
-2
6
-10
-3
-4
-3
-3
-11
12 QUARTER 4 2013 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
“Germany’shealthypositionamongtheeuro-crisiscountriesthroughout
2013hasoncemoreimpactedconsumerconfidence,whichledtoa
record-high(since2005)indexreading,”saidIngoSchier,managing
director,NielsenGermany.“Withtheelection’scoalitionagreementin
sightwhentheNielsensurveywasfielded,stablepoliticalconditions
aswellasgoodeconomicperspectivesfor2014seemtohavegivena
furtherboostinconfidence.Noteventheriseofinflationandespecially
theriseoffoodpricestowardstheendoftheyeardampenedthe
positiveatmosphere.”
Among32Europeanmarkets,thejoboutlookforthecomingyear
increasedin12countries,declinedin15andremainedflatinfive.
Irelandwastheonlycountrytopostabuoyantdoubledigitincrease
injobprospectsfor2014,asconsumerconfidencereboundedtoits
highestlevel(77)sinceQ32008.
“InIreland,unemploymentcontinuestofallandisnowatitslowest
levelsince2009,theOctoberbudgetbroughtcertaintyfortheconsumer,
andcontinuedlowinflationandinterestratesspellgoodnewsfor
households,”saidMaureenMooney,commercialdirector,Nielsen
Ireland.“Reportsofclimbingpropertypricesareanotherindicatorof
acountrymovingforwardandapositivesignforthestartof2014.”
13Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
OPTIMISM REIGNED IN ASIA-PACIFIC AllconfidenceindicatorspostedmarginalgainsinAsia-Pacificinthe
fourthquarter,witha2-percentagepointincreaseforjobprospects
(62%),a1-percentagepointincreaseforpersonalfinances(62%)and
a3-percentagepointriseforspendingperceptionsoverthenext12
months(43%).Consumerconfidenceincreasedinsixof14countries,
witharobustquarterlyjumpof6percentagepointsinJapan,which
posteditshighestindexsince2005of80.Chinaincreasedoneindex
pointinthefourthquarterforascoreof111.
“InJapan,theboostinoptimismfollowspositivedevelopmentsduring
2013,whichincludeaweakeryenthatcontributedtotherecoveryof
exportsandariseintheNikkeistockaverage,”saidToshihiroFukutoku,
managingdirector,NielsenJapan.“InanticipationoftheApril2014sales
taxhike,Japaneseconsumershavebeenspendingmore,butcaution
prevailsforthesecondhalfoftheyear.”
Indiaalsoreverseditsdownwardconfidencetrendofthelastthree
quartersbyreboundingthreeindexpointsto115inthefourthquarter.
ThepercentageofIndianswhofeltmiredinrecessiondeclined14
percentagepointsto62percentfrom76percentinQ3.
“InIndia,theimprovedperceptionforconsumersattheendof2013
comesinthewakeofrelativeeconomicstabilityandareductionin
negativenewsreportsacrosseconomicparameters,”saidPiyush
Mathur,president,NielsenIndia.“Inthefirstquarterof2014,
continuinginflationandupcomingelectionsmayimpactconsumers
whoarelikelytotightentheirpursestringsnowthatthefestivaland
holidayperiodsareover.”
Theoutlookforjobprospectsinthenextyearincreasedineightof14
countries,withhealthyquarterlyconfidenceincreasesinJapan(+8
percentagepoints),India(+7pp),Indonesia(+5pp),Australia(+5pp)
andNewZealand(+4pp).Theoverallrecessionarysentimentinthe
regionfellby3percentagepointsto44percent,comparedtoQ3.While
overallconfidenceintheregionwasoptimistic,cautionarywindsprevail
asdiscretionaryspendingintentionsdeclinedacrossallcategories
measured.
Indonesia
India
Philippines
China
Thailand
HongKong
NewZealand
Vietnam
Malaysia
Singapore
Australia
Japan
Taiwan
SouthKorea
124
115
114
111
109
105
100
98
98
97
95
80
73
49
4
3
-4
1
-3
-1
3
1
-3
-1
-1
6
-3
-5
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN ASIA-PACIFIC
Q4 2013(CIRCLES DENOTE INDEX DIFFERENCE FROM Q3)
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42013
14 QUARTER 4 2013 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
LATIN AMERICA REPORTED BIG CONFIDENCE SWINGSBrazilledtheregionwiththehighestindexof110,whichincreased
onepointcomparedtoQ3anddeclinedonepointfromthesametime
periodthepreviousyear(Q42012).Thebiggestquarter-on-quarter
indexincreaseswerereportedinColombia(93),Peru(102)andChile
(99),whichincreasednine,eightandfourindexpoints,respectively.
Conversely,consumerconfidenceinMexico(78),Argentina(77)and
Venezuela(74),declined10,threeandtwoindexpoints,respectively
comparedtoQ3.
“InBrazil,consumersmaintainedtheirconfidenceatarelativelystable
andpositivelevel,asjobsandsalariesheldsteady,”saidEduardo
Ragasol,countrymanager,NielsenBrazil.“Butthepressureofrising
pricesanddebtsarekeepingfast-movingconsumergoodssalesin
checkandyear-on-yearretailperformanceremainedflat.”
Similartothequarterlyswingsinconsumerconfidencereportedin
theregion,arecessionarysentimentfollowedsuit,postingquarterly
improvementsinColombia(-10percentagepoints),Chile(-9pp),
Peru(-8pp)andBrazil(-4pp),whilethenumberofthosewhofeltin
recessionincreasedinMexico(+10pp)andVenezuela(+2pp).
Regionally,discretionaryspendingrestraintwasreportedfornew
clothes(26%)andout-of-homeentertainment(27%),witheach
decreasing3percentagepoints,comparedtoQ3.Animprovement,
however,wasmadeforintentionstosavesparecash,whichincreased
2percentagepointsto31percentinthefourthquarter.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN LATIN AMERICA
Q4 2013 (CIRCLES DENOTE INDEX
DIFFERENCE FROM Q3)
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42013
BRAZIL
PERU
CHILE
COLOMBIA
MEXICO
ARGENTINA
VENEZUELA
110
102
99
93
78
77
74
1
8
4
9
-3
-2
-10
15Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
RECESSION ON THE MINDS OF MANY IN THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA ConsumerconfidenceintheMiddleEast/Africadeclined2percentage
pointsquarterlyfrom90inthefourthquarter,withoptimisminEgypt
declining7indexpointsto76,reversingitssix-pointindexgaininQ3.
Mostconfidentwereoil-richnationsofUnitedArabEmirates(110),
whichdecreasedoneindexpointcomparedtoQ3,andSaudiArabia
(101),whichincreasedfourindexpoints.ConfidenceinSouthAfrica
postedatwo-pointquarterlyincreaseto86andPakistanheldsteady
at97.
Three-quartersofrespondentsintheMiddleEast/Africaregionbelieved
theywereinrecessioninthefourthquarter(thehighestofanyregion),
ariseof1percentagepointfromQ3and2pointsfromthesametime
periodthepreviousyear(Q42012).RespondentsinEgypt(86%)and
Pakistan(82%)reportedthehighestlevelsofrecessionarysentiment.
Conversely,respondentsinUnitedArabEmirates(44%)andSaudi
Arabia(51%)reportedthelowestrecessionarysentiment.SouthAfrica
postedadouble-digitrecessionary-sentimentimprovementof
67percent,downfrom77percentinQ3.
Regionaldiscretionaryspendingintentionsdecreasedforallcategories
measuredinthefourthquarter,withspendingonnewclothes(23%),
out-of-homeentertainment(18%)andholidays/vacations(13%)
declining4percentagepointseach.Declining2percentagepointseach
comparedtoQ3werespendingintentionsfornewtechnology(17%)and
homeimprovementprojects(14%).Investinginsharesofstocks(8%)
andsavingforretirement(4%)alsodeclinedby2percentagepoints
each.One-fourthofrespondentssaidtheyhadnosparecash,
anincreaseof3percentagepointscomparedtoQ3.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
Q4 2013 (CIRCLES DENOTE INDEX DIFFERENCE FROM Q3)
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42013
-1
4
0
2
-7
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
SAUDI ARABIA
PAKISTAN
SOUTH AFRICA
EGYPT
110
101
97
86
76
16 QUARTER 4 2013 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2012
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
AUSTRALIA 89%
CHINA 40%
HONGKONG 75%
INDIA 11%
INDONESIA 22%
JAPAN 80%
MALAYSIA 61%
NEWZEALAND 88%
PHILIPPINES 32%
SINGAPORE 75%
SOUTH KOREA 83%
TAIWAN 75%
THAILAND 30%
VIETNAM 34%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET
PENETRATION
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
AUSTRIA 80%
BELGIUM 81%
BULGARIA 51%
CROATIA 71%
CZECHREPUBLIC
73%
DENMARK 90%
ESTONIA 78%
FINLAND 89%
FRANCE 80%
GERMANY 83%
GREECE 53%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
EGYPT 36%
PAKISTAN 15%
SAUDIARABIA 49%
SOUTHAFRICA 17%
UNITEDARABEMIRATES
71%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
CANADA 83%
UNITEDSTATES 78%
COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICAEUROPE
HUNGARY 65%
IRELAND 77%
ISRAEL 70%
ITALY 58%
LATVIA 72%
LITHUANIA 65%
NETHERLANDS 93%
NORWAY 97%
POLAND 65%
PORTUGAL 55%
ROMANIA 44%
RUSSIA 48%
SERBIA 56%
SLOVAKIA 79%
SLOVENIA 72%
SPAIN 67%
SWEDEN 93%
SWITZERLAND 82%
TURKEY 46%
UNITED KINGDOM
84%
UKRAINE 34%
ARGENTINA 66%
BRAZIL 46%
CHILE 59%
COLOMBIA 60%
MEXICO 37%
PERU 37%
VENEZUELA 41%
17Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenHoldingsN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalinformationand
measurementcompanywithleadingmarketpositionsinmarketing
andconsumerinformation,televisionandothermediameasurement,
onlineintelligenceandmobilemeasurement.Nielsenhasapresencein
approximately100countries,withheadquartersinNewYork,USAand
Diemen,theNetherlands.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.
Copyright©2014TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand
theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN
Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor
registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.14/7340
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending
IntentionswasconductedNovember11–29,2013andpolledmorethan
30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,
Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast,AfricaandNorthAmerica.The
samplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybasedon
theirInternetusers,andisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet
consumersandhasamaximummarginoferrorof±0.6%.ThisNielsen
surveyisbasedonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccessonly.
Internetpenetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimum
reportingstandardof60percentInternetpenetrationor10Monline
populationforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndex
iscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500
respondentsinChina.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,whichincludesthe
GlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.
18 QUARTER 4 2013 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT