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C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD
QUARTER 2, 2015
2015 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 2ND EDITION
2 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2
• ConfidenceroseinEuropetoanindexscoreof79—itshighestlevelinfiveyears.
• NorthAmericanconfidenceremainedoptimisticat101butdeclinedfivepointsfromthefirstquarter.
• Asia-Pacificconfidenceheldsteadyat107,thehighestlevelofallregions.
• LatinAmericanconfidencecontinuedtodecline,droppingthreepointsto83—thelowestlevelsince2009.
• MiddleEast/Africaconfidencedeclinedtwopointsto94,asspendingandpersonalfinancesentimentdropped.
• Recessionarysentimentimprovedin78%ofEuropeanmarketsmeasuredbutworsenedthroughoutallotherregions.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVED IN EUROPE IN THE SECOND QUARTER, WHILE IT DECLINED OR REMAINED FLAT IN OTHER REGIONS
Globalconsumerconfidencedeclinedoneindexpointinthesecond
quartertoascoreof96,asoverallsentimentaboutjobprospectsand
personalfinancesdroppedtwoandonepercentagepoint(s),respectively
fromthefirstquarter.Thisnear-baselinescore,whichhasstayed
relativelyconsistentformorethanayear,reflectsanoverallstable
outlook,butunevenperformanceatthecountrylevelincreasedwithin
regions—especiallyinLatinAmericaandtheMiddleEast.
3Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 3
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Thefindingsinthissurveyare
basedonrespondentswith
onlineaccessin60countries
(unlessotherwisenoted).While
anonlinesurveymethodology
allowsfortremendousscale
andglobalreach,itprovidesa
perspectiveonlyonthehabits
ofexistingInternetusers,not
totalpopulations.Indeveloping
marketswhereonlinepenetration
isstillgrowing,audiencesmay
beyoungerandmoreaffluent
thanthegeneralpopulationof
thatcountry.Inaddition,survey
responsesarebasedonclaimed
behaviorratherthanactual
metereddata.
Regionally,confidencecontinuedtoriseinEurope,increasingtwopointsto
79—itshighestscoresince2010,as65%ofmarketsshowedimprovement
fromthefirstquarter.InAsia-Pacific,confidenceheldsteadyat107,andit
declinedfivepointsinNorthAmerica(101),twopointsintheMiddleEast/
Africa(94)andthreepointsinLatinAmerica(83).
Amongtheworld’slargesteconomies,confidenceremainedatnear-and
above-the-baselinelevelsinGermany(97)andtheU.S.(101)despite
quarterlyindexdeclinesofthreeandsixpoints,respectively.InChina(107)
andtheU.K.(99),consumerconfidenceincreasedoneandtwopoints,
respectively,anditincreasedonepointinJapan(83)fromthefirstquarter.
“Contrastswithinandacrossmarketscontinuetobeadominantfeature
oftheglobaleconomy,”saidLouiseKeely,seniorvicepresident,Nielsen,
andpresident,TheDemandInstitute.“ConsumerconfidenceinEurozone
marketshasbeenrelativelystable,withthenotableexceptionofGreece.
Whilequantitativeeasingislargelyviewedasdoingasintended,Europe
isnowmovingthroughtheGreekdebtcrisis.Arelativelystrongstarting
pointforconfidencewillsupportconsumerspendingasthecrisisunfolds.
InChina,slowingGDPgrowthsitsalongsideastockmarketthathasbeen
soaring.Confidencehasnotfalteredthereeither,whichbodeswellfor
consumerspendinginthenearterm.Meanwhile,Brazil,withitsunusual
combinationofrecessionandinflation,sawconsumerconfidencedecline
toarecordlowlevelthisquarter.Weexpectthesituationtheretocontinue
toimpactspendingbehavior.”
Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedMay11-29,2015,consumer
confidenceincreasedin27of60marketsmeasuredbyNielsen(45%).
India’sscoreof131wasthehighestlevelamong60markets,followedby
thePhilippines(122),Indonesia(120)andDenmark(112).ThePhilippines
showedthebiggestquarterlyimprovement,asconfidencethereroseseven
points,andGreeceshowedthebiggestquarterlydeclineof12pointsfrom
thefirstquarter.SouthKoreareportedthelowestscoreof45.
TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal
jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.
Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate
degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobal
SurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,established
in2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspending
intentionsamongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin
60countries.
4 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ2-2015 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.
+7-3
+6-3
-7+1
-2
-1
-8
0
-6
-3
-1
+2
+2
+4
-3
-4
-1
+4
+1
-6-5
-4+3
+5+1+10+3-5-2-4
-1+1
+4-1
+6
-7
-1
+4
+6
+2
+1
+5
-3
+3
+6
-3
+4
+1
-2-2
-4-12
-3
87 SO
UTH
AFRICA 87 TU
RKEY 88
SWED
EN 88
CZECH REPUBLIC
88 NO
RWAY
88 IRELAND
GREECE 53
89 MALAYSIA
ITALY 53
89 AUSTRALIA
HUNGARY 55
PORTUGAL 57
90 NETHERLANDS
CROATIA 59
92 ISRAEL
SLOVENIA
61
93 COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA 62
95 PERU
FRANCE 66
97 GERMANY
FINLAND 66
98 SWITZERLAND
POLAND 70
98 CANADA
SPAIN 72 99 UNITED KINGDOMBULGARIA 73 99 SINGAPORE
SLOVAKIA 75
99 NEW ZEALAND
RUSSIA 78
101 UNITED STATES
ROMANIA 78
102 PAKISTAN
LATVIA 79
104 VIETNAM
BRAZIL 81
105 HONG KONG
ARGENTINA 81
105 SAUDI ARABIA
ESTONIA 82
107 CHIN
A
BELGIUM
83
108 U
NITED ARAB EMIRATES
JAPAN
83
111
THAILA
ND
LITHUANIA
83
112
DENM
ARK
CHIL
E
84
120
INDO
NESIA
TAIW
AN
84
122
PH
ILIP
PIN
ES
MEX
ICO
8
4EG
YPT
85
AUST
RIA
8
5
0
SERBIA 53
+1
131
IN
DIA
IND
EX
COU
NTR
Y
LESS
CONFIDENT
MORE CONFIDENT
+7
UKRAINE
48
-1
SOUTH
KOREA
45
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC
96 ( -1 change from Q1-2015 )
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 60 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ2-2015 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index
Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.
INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM
GLOBALAVERAGE
5Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ2-2015 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
5
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS LINKED TO RETAIL ACTIONSConsumerassessmentsoftheireconomyandtheirownfinancialsituationscanhaveadirectimpactontheirwillingnesstospendandtheirproclivitiestosave.Assuch,thereisarelationshipbetweenchangesinconsumerconfidenceandtheactionsconsumerssaytheytaketosaveonhouseholdexpenses.
“Evenassentimentaboutconsumers’ownpersonalsituationshasriseninrecentyears,thereisstillawidespreadconcernamongconsumersaboutrecession,”saidKeely.“Infact,sixyearsaftertheofficialendoftheGreatRecession,morethanhalf(54%)ofglobalrespondentsstillbelievetheircountryisinrecession.Sowhileglobalconsumerconfidencehasbeenrisingslowlytoreachnearoptimisticlevelsinthepastyear,thereisstillevidencethatconsumersfeeluncertainabouttheircountries’futures.Retailsalesactivityhasbeenslowertorespond,reflectingthatlingeringuncertainty.”
Anemicconsumerspendinglevelsarereflectiveofthefactthatnearlytwo-thirds(65%)ofconsumersaroundtheworldareinasaving—ratherthanaspending—mindset.ThiscautionaryoutlookismostprevalentinLatinAmerica(79%),followedbyMiddleEast/Africa(69%),Asia-Pacific(66%),NorthAmerica(59%)andEurope(58%),asmorethanhalfofrespondentsintheseregionssaytheyareactivelytakingactiontosaveonhouseholdexpensescomparedtoayearago.
Prioritiesonsavingstrategiesdifferacrossregions.
Amongthosewhosaytheyaretakingactionstosave,thetoptwoareasearmarkedforreductionarespendingonclothingandout-of-homeentertainmentcosts.Cuttingbackongasandelectricitycosts,alongwithspendinglessontake-outmealsandswitchingtocheapergrocerybrandsareothertopsavingpriorities.Somewhatmoreprotectedareexpensesthataffecttransportation,annualholidays/vacations,at-homeentertainmentandthereplacementofmajorhouseholdappliances.
6 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22015
TOP 5 SAVING STRATEGIES BY REGIONCOMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST YEAR, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING ACTIONS
HAVE YOU TAKEN IN ORDER TO SAVE ON HOUSEHOLD EXPENSES?
ASIA-PACIFIC EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA LATIN AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
SPEND LESS ON NEW CLOTHES
SAVE ON GAS AND ELECTRICITY
CUT DOWN ON OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT
SWITCH TO CHEAPER GROCERY BRANDS
CUT DOWN ON TAKE-AWAY MEALS
46% 57%
52%
43%
50%
38%
41%
38%
27%
31%
49%
41%
40%
28%
48%
53%
48%
50%
46%
46%
32%
44%
48%
51%
49%
7Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
CONCERNS WEIGHING MOST HEAVILY ON CONSUMERS DIFFER AROUND THE WORLDCertainconcernsareuniversal.Worriesaboutthestateoftheeconomy,fearoflosingajoboranxietiesabouthealthissuesaretopconcernsinallregionsoftheworld.Butotherconcernstakeongreatersignificancedependingonwhereyoulive.Understandingtheemotionalburdensthatweighheavilyonconsumersprovideinsightintothefactorsthatcandrivebehavior.
Forexample,debtandincreasingfoodpricesaretopconcernsamongNorthAmericans.Crimeandwork/lifebalancetopthelistofanxietiesinLatinAmerica.Parents’welfareandhappinessisakeyissueforthoseinAsia-PacificandMiddleEast/Africa,andrisingutilitybillsisamajorworryforEuropeans.
8 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
NOT ALL CONCERNS ARE EQUAL AROUND THE WORLD
BIGGEST AND SECOND BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS Countries with the highest level for each concern
Q22015 2009
JOBSECURITY Colombia 42%UnitedArabEmirates
50%
WAR Ukraine 56% Israel 9%
THEECONOMY Venezuela 46% Turkey 56%
HEALTH Lithuania 42% Romania 28%
WORK/LIFEBALANCE Portugal 38% Indonesia 33%
CRIME Venezuela 37% Argentina 35%
INCREASINGFOODPRICE Venezuela 33% France 29%
CHILDREN’SEDUCATIONANDWELFARE
Lithuania 31% Hungary 24%
DEBT Greece 30% Romania 29%
INCREASINGUTILITYBILLS Ireland 27% Poland 37%
PARENTS’WELFAREANDHAPPINESS
UnitedArabEmirates
24% Indonesia 25%
TERRORISM France 22% Pakistan 18%
POLITICALSTABILITY Turkey 22% Venezuela 24%
GLOBALWARMING India 19% Norway 11%
INCREASINGFUELPRICES Vietnam 18% U.S. 11%
IMMIGRATION U.K. 16% U.K. 10%
“Demand-drivengrowthstrategiesofconsumer-facingbusinessesarevitalforconnectingtherightproductsandrightcommunicationwiththerightconsumers,”saidKeely.“Strategiesshouldbedevelopedwithanunderstandingofwhatconsumers’concernsandworriesare,whichcaninformbothunmetneedsandproductinnovationopportunities,aswellasdirectionsforbettermessagingtoconsumers.”
Levelsofconcernvarybycountry,andtherelativesignificanceofeachillustratesthemyriadofworriesthataffectconsumersinthegloballandscape.
9Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
28%
22%
17%
15%
22%
31%
25%
22%
21%
20%
19%
17%
NOT ALL CONCERNS ARE EQUAL AROUND THE WORLD
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22015
BIGGEST AND SECOND BIGGEST CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS
ECONOMY 29%
29%
19%
17%
15%
27%
26%
22%
JOB SECURITY ECONOMY
ECONOMY
JOB SECURITY
HEALTH
ECONOMY JOB SECURITY
DEBT
ECONOMY
WORK/LIFE BALANCE
PARENTS’ WELFARE & HAPPINESS CRIME
INCREASING FOOD PRICES
= CONCERN IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN IN OTHER REGIONS.
HEALTH
JOB SECURITY
TERRORISM HEALTH
HEALTH & JOB SECURITY
INCREASING UTILITY BILLS
ASIA-PACIFIC EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
10 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
THE FUTURE IS LOOKING BRIGHTER THROUGHOUT EUROPE Whilerecessionarysentimentlingersformorethanhalfofglobal
respondents(54%),levelsimprovedin31of60countriesfromthefirst
quarter.ThebiggestimprovementscamefromEuropeancountries,with
Russia’srecessionarysentimentdropping16percentagepointsto65%.
WhilerecessionarysentimentlevelsarestillhighthroughoutEurope,
significantquarterlyimprovementsareevidentinAustria,Belgium,
Romania,U.K.,IsraelandSlovenia.
ThesameisnottrueinLatinAmerica,whererecessionarysentimentishigh
inVenezuela(94%),Brazil(90%)andMexico(82%),anditcontinuesto
growinPeru,ChileandColombia.
RecessionarysentimentalsogrewintheU.S.(57%),India(50%)andNew
Zealand(35%)byseven,sixandfivepercentagepoints,respectively,from
thefirstquarter.
RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVES IN EUROPE AND WORSENS IN LATIN AMERICA
BIGGEST RECESSIONARY IMPROVEMENT
GROWING RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT
Q1 2015
Q2 2015 Change
Russia 81% 65% -16%
Austria 69% 61% -8%
Belgium 71% 63% -8%
Romania 54% 48% -6%
U.K. 51% 45% -6%
Israel 59% 53% -6%
Slovenia 83% 77% -6%
Q1 2015
Q2 2015 Change
Peru 46% 56% 10%
Chile 47% 55% 8%
Colombia 59% 66% 7%
Estonia 42% 49% 7%
U.S. 50% 57% 7%
India 44% 50% 6%
Brazil 85% 90% 5%
NewZealand
30% 35% 5%
11Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT ARE EVIDENT IN EUROPE ConsumerconfidencegrewthroughouttheEuropeanregioninthe
secondquarter,as21of32markets(65%)weremoreoptimisticthan
atthestartoftheyear.ConfidenceinGermany,theregion’slargest
economy,declinedthreeindexpointsto97—thefirstdeclineinayear.In
theU.K.,confidenceincreasedtwopointsto99—thesixthconsecutive
quarterofincreases.
“Germanconsumerconfidenceshowedaslightsetbackinthesecond
quarter,butpersistentlylowinterestratesandstableeconomicoutput
areindicativeofaconsumerclimatethatisgenerallypositive,”said
IngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“Positivelabor
marketdevelopmentscontinueinthecountry,andsentimenttowardjob
prospectsremainsstrong.Whileconcernsaboutterrorismdeclinedin
thelastthreemonths,itremainsatopanxietyforconsumers,aswellas
worriesabouthealthandincreasingutilityprices.”
“IntheU.K.,wageinflationisstartingtooutstrippriceinflationfor
thefirsttimeinyears,inflationandmortgageratesareathistorically
lowlevelsandunemploymentisfallingsteadily,whichallcombinefor
amorepositiveconsumeroutlook,”saidSteveSmith,marketleader,
NielsenU.K.andIreland.“Whiledisposableincomeandjobsecurityare
recovering,theconsumerhasnotyetreturnedtospendthriftways.The
volumeoffast-movingconsumergoodssoldbythemajorsupermarkets
salesaregrowingslightly,andsomebrandsarenowseeingsmall
volumeuplift.Theyarestillunderpressure,however,asdiscounters
arealsoincreasingmarketshare.Nowisagoodtimetoembarkon
innovation,whichwillhelptodrivefuturebusinessgrowth.”
Regionally,confidenceincreasedmostintheUkraine(48),risingseven
indexpointsfromthefirstquarter,butstillleavingthecountryfarbelow
100,theequilibriumpointofpessimism/optimism.Denmark’sscoreof
112—anincreaseofsixpoints—isthecountry’shighestlevelsincethird-
quarter2009.Russiaalsoincreasedsixpointsto78,asjobprospects
andimmediatespendingintentionsgrewsevenandfourpercentage
points,respectively.France’sscoreof66,ariseofsixpoints,isthe
country’shighestscoresincesecond-quarter2011.
12 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
“IntheUkraine,agovernmentceasefiretruceinFebruaryandamore
stablecurrencybudgetratelikelycontributedtotheriseinoptimismin
thesecondquarter,butconsumerconfidencelevelsarehistoricallylow,”
saidTatianaBessmertnaya,marketleader,NielsenUkraineandBelarus.
“Whilesalesoffast-movingconsumergoodsincreased19.3%in2015,
volumehasdeclinedby13.5%,asconsumersarebuyinglessandpaying
moreduetoinflationandcurrencydevaluation.”
“InDenmark,thereisashiftinretailpurchasingpatternsacross
thegrocerytradetowardspremiumproducts,whichmayindicate
consumersarereadytoopentheirwalletsandspendmoneyonmore
expensivegroceriesthanbefore,”saidCecilieWesth,marketleader,
NielsenNordics.“TherearemanysignsthatrecoveryinDenmarkis
ontherighttrack:Factoryproductionhasincreased,labormarketsare
improving,andpersonalfinanceperceptionshaveincreased.”
“Russianconsumersarestartingtorecover,asslowinginflationand
stablecurrencyexchangeratesareprovidingabetterenvironmentfor
spending,”saidKyriakosKyriakou,regionaldirector,NielsenEastern
Europe.“While2015retailsalesthroughMaydeclined7.2%,therate
ofdeclineoverthelastfewmonthshasslowed,asRussiansaremore
confidentintheirjobprospectsandarebecomingmoredaringintheir
spendingaftermonthsofbeinginsaving-mode.”
“InFrance,thedropintheEuroconversationrate,morefavorableoil
pricesandanimprovementinmanufacturingexportsarepositivesigns
thattheFrencheconomyisimproving,”saidLaurentZeller,managing
director,NielsenFrance.“Fast-movingconsumergoodstrendsshow
thatsalesvolumeisgrowing,aslowerfoodpricesaredrivingarisein
consumptionandanupgradetomorepremiumpurchasesinFrench
baskets.”
NotallcountriesinEuropereportedpositiveperformanceinthesecond
quarter,andseveralcountriesreversedtheirfirstquarterconfidence
gains.ConfidenceinGreecedeclinedby12indexpointstoascoreof
53—thelargestquarterlydecreaseofthe60countriesinthesurvey.
ConfidencealsodeclinedbyfourpointsinbothIreland(88)andItaly
(53).
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22015
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INCREASES IN 65% OF EUROPEAN MARKETS IN Q2
Denmark
U.K.
Switzerland
Germany
Israel
Netherlands
Norway
Ireland
Sweden
CzechRepublic
Turkey
Austria
Lithuania
Belgium
Estonia
Latvia
Russia
Romania
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Spain
Poland
Finland
France
Slovenia
Croatia
Portugal
Hungary
Greece
Serbia
Italy
Ukraine
INDEX Q2 2015
CHANGE FROM Q1 2015
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
+6
+2
+4
-3
+4
+1
+3
-4
+1
+5
+1
+3
-1
+4
-1
-1
+6
+4
+2
+1
+5
-3
+3
+6
+4
+1
-2
-2
-12
0
-4
+7
112 |
99 |
98 |
97 |
92 |
90 |
88 |
88 |
88 |
88 |
87 |
85 |
83 |
83 |
82 |
79 |
78 |
78 |
75 |
73 |
72 |
70 |
66 |
66 |
61 |
59 |
57 |
55 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
48 |
13Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
U.S. CONFIDENCE DECLINES, BUT STAYS AT AN OPTIMISTIC LEVEL U.S.consumerconfidencedecreasedsixindexpointsinthesecond
quartertoascoreof101,butremainedatanabove-the-baseline
optimisticlevel.ConsumerconfidenceinCanadaincreasedtwopoints
to98,afterdecliningsixpointsinthefirstquarter.
IntheU.S.,theallthreeconfidenceindicatorsdecreasedinthesecond
quarterwithimmediatespendingintentionsdecliningthemostat
sixpercentagepointsto44%.Jobprospectssentimentdroppedfive
percentagepointsto50%andpersonalfinancesentimentdeclinedone
percentagepointto61%fromthefirstquarter.
“ConfidenceintheU.S.remainsatelevatedlevels,butit’sanuneven
recovery,asmorethanhalfofAmericansstillfeeltheeffectsofthe
recession,andnearly40%arelivingpaychecktopaycheck,”saidJames
Russo,seniorvicepresident,NielsenGlobalConsumerInsights.“While
fast-movingconsumergoodsdollarsaleswereup2.6%throughMay
2015,drivenbyinflationandperimeterstoregrowthforhealthcareand
personalcareproducts,weexpectthefive-yearunitsalestrendtobe
flat.”
InCanada,immediatespendingintentionsincreasedfourpercentage
pointsinthesecondquarterto41%,reversingthedeclinefromthefirst
quarter.Jobprospectsentimentalsoincreased,risingonepercentage
pointto45%.Meanwhile,personalfinancesentimentdeclinedone
percentagepointto54%,thethirdconsecutivequarterofdeclines.
14 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22015
PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT
U.S. CONFIDENCE DECLINES IN Q2; CANADA IMPROVES
JOB PROSPECTS
PERSONAL FINANCES
IMMEDIATE SPENDING INTENTIONS
-5
-1
-6
+1
-1
+4
45%
44% 41%
Q2 2015 Q2 2015CHANGE
FROM Q1 2015
CHANGE FROM
Q1 2015
CANADAUNITED STATES
50%
61% 54%
15Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
LATIN AMERICA FALLS DEEPER INTO A RECESSIONARY MINDSET ConsumerconfidencedeclinedinsixofsevenLatinAmericanmarkets
measuredinthesecondquarter,withBrazil(81)reportingthesteepest
dropofsevenindexpointsfromthefirstquarter.Thedeclinerepresents
thethirdconsecutivequarterofdeclinesfortheregion’slargest
economy,andthescoreisthelowestNielsenhaseverrecorded(the
NielsenConsumerConfidenceIndexwasestablishedin2005).
InBrazil,sentimentforthethreeeconomicindicatorshitnewlows,as
futurejobprospectsdeclinedfourpercentagepointsto23%,personal
financessentimentdecreasedfourpercentagepointsto56%,and
immediatespendingintentionsdeclinedninepercentagepointsto
32%.NearlyallBrazilianrespondentsbelievetheyareinrecession,as
thesentimentincreasedfivepercentagepointsto90%fromthefirst
quarter.
“InBrazil,overallconsumerperceptionscontinuetoworsenasdifficult
economicconditionsremaininplace,”saidLuisArjona,country
manager,NielsenBrazil.“Risingunemploymentandahighinflationrate
arecompoundedbyaslightGDPdecline.Whilegovernmentauthorities
haveadoptedfiscaldisciplinemeasures,itwilltaketimebefore
economicgrowthisreignited.Consumersarerespondingbylowering
levelsofdebt,seekingpromotionsandshoppingatretailformatsthat
offermostcompetitiveprices.”
Peru’sindex(95)declinedfourpoints,followedbydeclinesofthree
pointseachinChile(84)andVenezuela(62).Consumerconfidencein
Mexico(84)andColombia(93)declinedtwoandonepoint,respectively,
fromthefirstquarter.Argentinawastheonlycountrymeasuredinthe
regionwithaconfidenceboost,risingsixpointsto81inthesecond
quarter.
Regionally,the12-monthoutlookforgood/excellentjobprospects
declinedonepercentagepointto26%,personalfinancessentiment
fellonepercentagepointto55%,andimmediatespendingintentions
decreasedfourpercentagepointsto32%.Recessionarysentimentgrew
intheregion,risingfrom78%to81%inthesecondquarter—thehighest
ofalltheregions.
ARGENTINA POSTS THE ONLY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVEMENT IN Q2
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22015
PERU
VENEZUELA
BRAZIL
95
81
62
-4
-7
-3
CHILE
84-3
ARGENTINA
816
COLOMBIA
93-1
MEXICO
84-2
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
INDEX Q2 2015
CHANGE FROMQ1 2015
16 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONFIDENCE RISES IN CHINA, INDIA, JAPAN AND THE PHILIPPINES, BUT DECLINES IN 10 OTHER ASIA-PACIFIC COUNTRIES Reversingtheperformanceatthestartoftheyear,consumerconfidence
intheAsia-Pacificregionimprovedinonlyfourcountriesinthesecond
quarter,whileitdeclinedintenothers.ThePhilippinesshowedthe
biggestquarterlyconfidenceincreaseofsevenindexpoints,risingto
ascoreof122—thecountry’shighestlevelonrecord.Confidencealso
increasedonepointeachinIndia(131),China(107)andJapan(83)from
thefirstquarter.
“InthePhilippines,anupsurgeofrevenuesfromthestrongbusiness
processoutsourcingindustry,anupswingintheconstructionsector,
andstrongconsumptionspendinglevelsarefuelinggrowthinthe
country,”saidStuartJamieson,managingdirector,NielsenPhilippines.
“Fast-movingconsumergoodssalesareup9.5%Jan-April2015from
lastyear,withgrowthacrossallretailchannels.Consumershavemore
discretionarycash,andtheyareusingittotakevacationswithfamily
andfriendsanddiningout.”
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand
China
HongKong
Vietnam
NewZealand
Singapore
Australia
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
131
122
120
111
107
105
104
99
99
89
89
84
83
45
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES MOST IN THE PHILIPPINES IN Q2
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22015
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
1
7
-3
-3
1
-1
-8
-3
-1
-6
-5
-4
1
-1
INDEXQ2 2015
CHANGE FROMQ1 2015
17Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
“InIndia,consumeroptimismisatitshighestlevelsince2011,which
ispositivenews,butdiscretionaryspendinglevelsareyettoseeahuge
transformation,”saidPiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndiaRegion.
“Therearesignsofpositivegrowthinconsumerspendingonconsumer
packagedgoods,indicatedbyaslightincreaseingrowthcompared
tothepreviousquarters.Therehasalsobeenagradualdecreasein
concernsaboutjobsecurityoverthelastfewquartersalongwith
interestratecuts,andanincreaseinintentionforhomeloans—thus
enhancingthesentimentontheeconomyandportrayinganoptimistic
pictureforthefuture.Nevertheless,thenextquarterwillbecriticalas
concernsaroundthemonsoonscontinuetohaveamutedeffecton
consumption.”
“InChina,consumers’desiretospendisgrowing,especiallyinthe
lower-tiercitiesandintheruralpartsofthecountry,”saidYanXuan,
president,NielsenGreaterChina.“Higherincomelevelsandgrowing
e-commercepenetrationintheseareasinparticularrepresentimportant
stepsforincreasingdomesticconsumption.TheEastChinaregion
isleadingthecountry’seconomictransformationwiththehighest
confidenceandspendingintentionlevelsandwhereonline,offline,
traditionalandspecialtychannelsareconverginganddrivingupgraded
productchoices.”
Regionally,Vietnam(104)reportedthebiggestquarterlydeclinein
confidenceofeightpoints,followedbyAustralia(89)andMalaysia(89),
whichdroppedsixandfivepoints,respectively,fromthefirstquarter.
“TheVietnamretailenvironmenthasevolvedfromoneofthefastest
growingmarketsin2012toonethat’sstrugglingtoremainingrowth,
withsaleslevelsbetween2%-3%formostofthelast12months,”said
VaughanRyan,managingdirector,NielsenVietnam.“Forthefirsttime
inwelloveradecade,VietnamexperiencedanegativeConsumerPrice
IndexinFebruary,andforeigndirectinvestmentwasdownover20%in
thefirstquarterfromlastyear.Consumersarefeelinglessoptimistic
abouttheirimmediatefuture,buttheyareconfidentinthelongerterm,
asmostexpecttheeconomywillimproveintheyearahead.”
“InAustralia,therearemultiplefactorscontributingtoconsumers’
economicconfidencedeclines,andhistoricalmovementsneedtobe
considered,”saidChrisPercy,managingdirector,NielsenPacific.“Weak
incomegrowth,aslumpintheAustraliandollarandrisingcostof
livingisleavingmoreAustralianswithnosparecash.Thatbeingsaid,
seasonalityisalsoacontributor,asthewintermonthstypicallydeliver
belowaverageresults,andwhilethequarterisnotablydowncompared
tothestartoftheyear,consumerconfidenceisupfourpointscompared
tothesameperiodlastyear.”
18 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONFIDENCE DECLINES IN THE UAE, SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPTConsumerconfidencedecreasedinthreeoffivecountriesmeasured
intheMiddleEast/Africaregionandheldsteadyintwointhesecond
quarter.At108,theUnitedArabEmirates(UAE)hadthehighestindex
intheregion,butitdecreasedsevenpointsfromthefirstquarter—the
biggestquarterlydeclineinsixyears.Confidencedeclinedfivepoints
inEgyptto85andtwopointsinSaudiArabiato105.Confidencelevels
inPakistan(102)andSouthAfrica(87)wereunchangedfromthefirst
quarter.
“IntheUnitedArabEmirates,jobsecurityconcernsareamplifyingas
loweroilpricescanfuelexpectationsofgovernmentspendingcuts,”
saidArslanAshraf,managingdirector,NielsenArabianPeninsula.
“Additionally,twokeysectorsoftheeconomy—realestateandtourism—
areshowingsignsofsoftening.Assuch,consumersaresavingmore
andspendingless,intendingtopullbackspendingonnewclothes,out-
of-homeentertainmentandhomeimprovementsexpenses.”
Regionally,whilesentimentaboutjobprospectsedgedupone
percentagepointto45%,personalfinancessentimentdeclinedtwo
percentagepointsto58%,andimmediatespendingintentionsdeclined
threepercentagepointsto36%fromthefirstquarter.Recessionary
sentimentincreasedinfouroffiveMiddleEast/Africamarkets:Egypt
andSouthAfricaeachincreasedthreepercentagepointsto82%and
73%,respectively,andSaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirates
increasedtwopercentagepointsto45%and41%,respectively.
Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingandsaving
intentionschangedmarginallyacrossmostlifestylecategories.
Intentionstosavedeclinedtwopercentagepointsto37%,butplansto
investincreasedtwopercentagepointsto12%.Payingdebtswasthe
priorityfor22%ofrespondents,anincreaseofthreepercentagepoints,
andspendingonnewclothes(27%)andholidays/vacations(19%)
increasedonepercentagepointeachfromthefirstquarter.
INDEXQ2 2015
CHANGE FROM Q1 2015
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINES MOST IN UAE IN Q2
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22015
-7
-2
0
-5
0
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
SAUDI ARABIA
PAKISTAN
EGYPT
SOUTH AFRICA
108
105
102
85
87
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
19Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
CONFIDENCE RISES IN KENYA AND NIGERIA, BUT DECLINES IN GHANAConsumerconfidenceincreasedeightindexpointsinKenya(112)
andthreepointsinNigeria(132)inthesecondquarter.Conversely,
confidencedecreasedfivepointsinGhana(94),thesecondconsecutive
quarterofdeclines.
ThethreecountrieswereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementof
consumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurvey
methodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreport
consumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother60countries
outlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets
arenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussed
throughoutthisreport.
TheoutlookforjobsincreasedsignificantlyinNigeriaandKenya,rising
11andeightpercentagepoints,respectivelyfromthefirstquarter.
Likewise,sentimentforpersonalfinancesandimmediatespending
intentionsalsoincreasedinbothcountries.Eighty-fivepercentof
Nigerianrespondentsand67%ofKenyarespondentsbelievethestateof
theirpersonalfinancesaregood/excellent,uptwoandthreepercentage
points,respectively.Conversely,sentimentforallthreeindicators
declinedinGhana.
Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(70%inGhana,
64%inKenyaand58%inNigeria)saidtheydidnothavesparecash,
levelsthatincreasedinGhanabutdeclinedinKenyaandNigeriafrom
firstquarter.Amongthosewhodidclaimdiscretionaryfunds,saving
continuedtobeapriorityforthemajority:82%inGhana,83%in
Kenyaand79%inNigeriaplantoputmoneyintosavingsaccounts.
Discretionaryspendingintentionsforhomeimprovementprojectswere
thesecond-biggestpriorityamongrespondentsinallthreecountries.
20 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
OPTIMISM IS HIGH IN NIGERIA AND KENYA
Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22015
Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodolgy
GHANA
KENYA
NIGERIA
10397
10299
94
111
121
105
123
113
127
104
129
112
132
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
21Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2014
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Australia 94%
China 47%
HongKong 81%
India 20%
Indonesia 28%
Japan 86%
Malaysia 67%
NewZealand 95%
Philippines 41%
Singapore 80%
South Korea 92%
Taiwan 80%
Thailand 30%
Vietnam 44%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET
PENETRATION
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Austria 87%
Belgium 90%
Bulgaria 59%
Croatia 71%
CzechRepublic 78%
Denmark 97%
Estonia 83%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Egypt 53%
Pakistan 15%
SaudiArabia 67%
SouthAfrica 52%
UnitedArabEmirates
96%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Canada 95%
UnitedStates 87%
MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*
Ghana 99%
Kenya 68%
Nigeria 64%
COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
LATIN AMERICAEUROPE
Finland 97%
France 83%
Germany 87%
Greece 60%
Hungary 75%
Ireland 79%
Israel 76%
Italy 59%
Latvia 75%
Lithuania 69%
Netherlands 96%
Norway 95%
Poland 67%
Portugal 65%
Romania 51%
Russia 61%
Serbia 65%
Slovakia 82%
Slovenia 76%
Spain 75%
Sweden 95%
Switzerland 89%
Turkey 57%
U.K 90%
Ukraine 42%
Argentina 75%
Brazil 54%
Chile 67%
Colombia 62%
Mexico 49%
Peru 42%
Venezuela 50%
*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2012
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
22 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending
IntentionswasconductedMay11-29,2015andpolledmorethan30,000
onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,Europe,
LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.Thesample
hasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybasedonitsInternet
usersandisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternetconsumers.Ithas
amarginoferrorof±0.6%.ThisNielsensurveyisbasedonlyonthe
behaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internetpenetrationrates
varybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreportingstandardof60%
Internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10millionforsurvey
inclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndexiscompiledfroma
separatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500respondentsinChina.
Thesub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudyarecompiledfrom
aseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600respondentsin
Ghana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,whichincludesthe
GlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.
ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalperformancemanagement
companythatprovidesacomprehensiveunderstandingofwhat
consumersWatchandBuy.Nielsen’sWatchsegmentprovidesmediaand
advertisingclientswithTotalAudiencemeasurementservicesacrossall
deviceswherecontent—video,audioandtext—isconsumed.TheBuy
segmentoffersconsumerpackagedgoodsmanufacturersandretailers
theindustry’sonlyglobalviewofretailperformancemeasurement.By
integratinginformationfromitsWatchandBuysegmentsandotherdata
sources,Nielsenprovidesitsclientswithbothworld-classmeasurement
aswellasanalyticsthathelpimproveperformance.Nielsen,anS&P500
company,hasoperationsinover100countriesthatcovermorethan90
percentoftheworld’spopulation.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.
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