consumer confidence tracker - behaviour &...
TRANSCRIPT
Consumer Confidence Tracker
February 2016
PREPARED BY: Luke Reaper & Anita Mullan J.7158
2
Introduction
3
● This report presents the findings of the February 2016 phase of the Behaviour & Attitudes’ Consumer Confidence Tracker.
● Survey results for this phase are based on a sample of 1,000 adults aged 16+, quota controlled in terms of age, gender, socio-economic class and region to reflect the profile of the adult population of the Republic of Ireland.
● All interviewing on the survey is conducted on our fortnightly face-to-face Barometer by trained members of the B&A field force working under ESOMAR guidelines.
● Fieldwork on the latest wave was carried out between the 3rd - 13th of February, 2016.
Introduction
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● B&A is Ireland’s largest and most experienced independently owned research company.
● We pride ourselves on having the most experienced director team in Ireland. All projects have a director involved.
● Established over 30 years ago, Behaviour and Attitudes provides a full range of market research services, ranging from CAPI, CATI, online and of course qualitative.
● Specialist sectors include: Retail & Shopper, Technology & Telecoms, Media, Financial, Political & Social, Polling, Automotive, Healthcare and Public Sector & Utilities.
● For more information please visit our website at: www.banda.ie or contact us on +353 1 2057500.
About Behaviour & Attitudes
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Key Highlights
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● As a context the macro economy remains positive.
● As we head into the General Election consumer confidence in the economy for the year ahead remains positive.
● While all areas of the country are positive towards the economic prospects, Dubliners are significantly more optimistic, followed by other urban centers with rural residents being the least positive.
● Only 14% of the population feel the country will be worse off in the coming year.
● Despite the uncertainties over the make up of the next Government, election promises may be helping the sandwich generation and blue collar workers to see the light at the end of the economic tunnel.
● In line with stablisation in consumer confidence, attitudes towards personal finances in the year ahead have become more positive. However those in Dublin continue to be much more positive regarding any expected income increases.
● While consumers remain cautious about their purchasing of goods and services in the year ahead a steady improvement in disposition to spend is evident.
● Overall net savings have also hit a period of non-movement, as the majority of consumers expect their savings to remain the same over the coming 12 months.
● Overall 1 in 4 expect the value of their personal assets to increase over the next 12 months.
● Overall Irish consumer confidence is positive and a solidity is evident. However it should not be forgotten that certain sections of society are still registering low optimism.
Key Highlights
The Macro
Context
GDP & GNP remain positive
Source: www.CSO.ie Quarterly National Accounts
42,773 42,813
41,901 41,529
41,884 42,218
42,496
41,919
42,589
43,449 43,392 43,793
42,710 42,687 43,089
44,216
42,713 42,771
43,868 43,682
44,912 45,410 45,446 45,619
48,849
50,131
50,904
35,751
35,093
34,109 33,774
34,305
34,875
35,709 35,776
34,922 34,992 35,078 34,651
34,236
35,384 35,436
36,109 35,939 35,611
37,179 37,145
37,835 37,921 38,100
39,336
41,803
42,839
42,311
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
GDP Vs GNP
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
* Q4 2015 results not yet available
9
The number in employment is increasing
1,996,400
1,974,000
1,953,600
1,921,400
1,891,900 1,893,600
1,886,100
1,857,300
1,841,800
1,861,300
1,845,600 1,847,700
1,825,000
1,836,200 1,841,300
1,848,900
1,845,600
1,869,900
1,899,300
1,909,800
1,888,200
1,901,600
1,926,900
1,938,900
1,929,500
1,958,000
1,929,500
1,958,000
1,983,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
+56,000 (vs. Q3 2014)
*Source: www.CSO.ie/Quarterly National Household survey Q4 2015 data not yet available
10 Source: www.CSO.ie/Persons on live register * Live Register Total data
-10.28% Overall Change
vs. January 2015
-7.11% vs. January 2015
-12.33% vs. Oct 2014
8.6% Current Rate
of unemployment.
131,127 189,667
The Live Register
12.0 13.8 14.6 14.7
13.6 11.5
9.6 8.6
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(f)
% Rate of Unemployment
While those on the live register continues to decline
Unemployment in Ireland
(vs. 9.6% in 2015)
Source: www.CSO.ie/Quarterly National Household survey
11
Live Register numbers appear to be stabilising
* The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time work e.g. seasonal &
casual workers who work up to 3 days per week
136,962
166,000 171,300
186,300
198,400
245,800
278,300
351,000
371,000
426,000 425,400
434,700 433,000
449,600
438,800 439,200 439,200 436,000
448,600
438,300 436,000 435,200 432,300 428,800 426,000
414,300 406,200
398,300 392,700
404,515
370,050 367,100
355,600 349,500
363,628
359,076
320,794 316,586
321,802
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
No
v '
00
Sep
t '0
7
No
v '
07
Feb
'0
8
Ap
r '0
8
Sep
t '0
8
No
v '
08
Feb
'0
9
Ap
r '0
9
Sep
'0
9
No
v '
09
Feb
'1
0
Ap
r '1
0
Sep
'1
0
No
v '
10
Feb
'1
1
Ap
r '1
1
Sep
'1
1
No
v '
11
Feb
'1
2
Ap
r '1
2
Sep
'1
2
No
v '
12
Feb
'1
3
Ap
r '1
3
Sep
'1
3
No
v '
13
Feb
'1
4
Ap
r '1
4
Ju
l '1
4
Sep
'1
4
No
v '
14
Feb
'1
5
Ap
r'1
5
Ju
l '1
5
Au
g '1
5
Oct
'15
No
v '
15
Jan
'1
6
Source: www.CSO.ie/Persons on live register
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q1 -39.9 -10.0 -10.3 -7.1 -5.8 -4.7
Q2 -14.9 -7.8 -8.2 -4.3 -2.9 -0.8
Q3 -32.2 -25.0 -7.2 -6.0 -4.3 -2.2
Q4 -42.7 -7.3 -6.6 -5.6 -2.9
General government surplus/deficit is also balancing out
Source: www.CSO.ie/Indicators/default
13
Balance of Payments has stabilised
-2382
-1234
-354
-1155 -1032 -169
1370 777
-1323
557
1526
616
-1228
632
1700 1598
781
1326
2687 2839
960
1879
3125
3718
1625
2704
2,446
-2500
-1500
-500
500
1500
2500
3500
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: www.CSO.ie/Balance of international payments
* Q4 data not yet available
Consumer Confidence Findings
As we head into the General Election consumer
confidence for the year ahead remains positive.
16
Consumer Confidence for the next 12 months remains high, but has plateaued
Source: B&A Consumer Confidence Report
Q.1 Q.2
Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year? And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?
Looking Back vs. Looking Forward (Net Diff: Positive-Negative)
-88 -93 -91
-86 -81
-50
-82 -86
-72
-59
-69 -64
-56 -57 -62
-51 -53
-46
-27 -31
-7
0 2 1
7 12
7
20 20
-74 -76
-65
-58 -54
-20
-74 -70
-58
-45
-64
-52
-44 -50
-60
-39 -44
-36
-18
-25
-4
6 6 4
12 14
7
25 26
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
Mar May Sept Nov Mar July Nov Jan Apr July Nov Mar May Sept Nov Feb Apr July Sept Dec Feb Apr July Sep Feb Apr Sept Nov Feb
Net diff looking forward Dublin +40 Other Urban +24 Rural +18
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
17
While all areas of the country are positive towards the country’s economic prospects, Dubliners are significantly more optimistic, followed by other urban centres with rural residents being the least positive Base: All Adults 16+
40
46
14
Better off
The same
Worse off
February 2016
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015’ Feb ’16
Gap = -15 -59 -68 -49 -58 -52 -32 +3 +15 +26
*Net Diff (GAP) +26%
A 3 speed economy still exists, with
those living in Dublin being
most positive.
Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?
Dublin: +40%
Rural: +18%
Other Urban: +24%
18
26% 27% 26% 27%
32%
17%
40%
21%
25%
32%
47%
31%
36%
9%
Total Male Female -34 35-54 55+ Dublin OutsideDublin
Irish NonIrish
DublinABC1F+
DublinC2DEF-
OutsideDublin
ABC1F+
OutsideDublinC2DEF-
% Net Difference
(Better – Worse off)
The sandwich generation (aged 35-54) and blue collar sector (especially Outside Dublin) have begun to see the light at the end of the tunnel Base: All Adults 16+
Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?
NET Diff 25% 25% 25% 29% 21% 26% 31% 23% 24% 34% 40% 20% 38% 11%
Blue Collar Consumers outside Dublin register the lowest confidence.
19
Personal Finances – attitudes towards personal finances have become more positive Base: All Adults 16+
22
60
18
Higher
The same
Lower
February 2016
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb 16
Gap = -15 -59 -68 -49 -58 -52 -32 -22 -6 +4
*Net Diff (GAP) +4%
Dublin is much more
positive towards personal finances.
Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?
Other Urban: -1%
Dublin: +13%
Rural: +1%
20
Personal Finances – Looking Forward YOY Base: All Adults 16+
25 30 28
13
5 7 7 7 8 13
17
0
11 14 12
16 18 14 16 19
22
58 58
59
52
30
35 31
34
41
49
61
0
42
51 54
55 59
62 59
65 60
13 12 13
34
64 57
63 59
51
38
22
0
47
35 34 29
24 25 25
17 18
Long Term 2014 2015 2016
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb April July Sep Feb April Sept Nov Feb
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Higher
The same
Lower
Gap +12 +18 +15 -21 -59 -50 -56 -52 -43 -25 -6 -36 -21 -22 -13 -6 -11 -9 +2 +4
Expect it to be….
Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?
21
Savings – Net future savings are expected to remain the same over the next 12 months Base: All Adults 16+
Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months?
18
62
20
More
The same
Lower
February 2016
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb ’16
Gap -1 -5 -34 -56 -48 -50 -48 -40 -24 -13 -2
*Net Diff (GAP) -2%
Other Urban: -5%
Dublin: +8%
Rural -8%
22
Personal Assets– 1 in 4 consumers expect the value of their personal assets to increase over the next 12 months Base: All Adults 16+
Q.6 Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings) In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year?
25
66
8
Higher
The same
Lower
February 2016
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb 16
Gap +33 +20 -25 -53 -43 -41 -31 -18 -1 +14 +17
*Net Diff (GAP) +17%
Dublin: +23%
Other Urban: +17%
Rural: +13%
23
Purchasing Goods and Services – Despite consumers
remaining cautious about purchasing goods and services in the year ahead, a steady improvement in disposition to spend is evident Base: All Adults 16+
Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year?
15
66
19
More
The same
Less
February 2016
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb ’16
Gap +7 +5 -29 -63 -47 -52 -45 -37 -19 -13 -3%
*Net Diff (GAP) -3%
Other Urban: -4%
Dublin: -1%
Rural : -4%
24
Balance Of Opinion in Summary – The Year Ahead Expectations in regard to asset value, purchases, and savings.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Yearly Averages
Long Term Short Term
Dec Feb Apr Jul Sep Feb Apr Sept Nov Feb
2013 2014 2015 2016
6 9
21
31 33
20
-25
-53
-43 -41
-4
-20
1
14
-10 -12
-12
4 7 5
-29
-63
-47
-52
-5
-13 -19
-13
-23 -28
-8
-5 -1
-5
-34
-56
-48
-50
-13
-4
-24
-13
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Asset Value Purchases Savings
-10 -9 -8
-1 3
20
10 9
16 17
-29 -29 -30
-16 -16 -12
-16 -16
-7 -3
-31 -34 -33
-23 -20
-11
-19 -18
-6 -2
25 Q.10 About how much would you say you spend each week on things you buy for yourself including money spent on clothes, eating
out, going for a drink, going to the cinema, gambling, sporting activities and so on?
€50.94
€61.29
€83.97
€62.32
€46.86 €46.21 €46.30
€50.43 €49.64 €53.13 €53.84
€57.42
2001 2004 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 Feb '15 April '15 Sept ' 15 Nov '15 Feb '16
Discretionary income is positive but mainly for Dubliners and ABC1s Base: All Adults 18+
Long Term Short Term
Dublin €73.06
Outside Dublin €51.61
ABC1 €64.04
C2DE €52.67