complete ocean tomo auction analysis
DESCRIPTION
Full analysis of 8 Ocean Tomo patent auctions. Analyzing all sold lots and aggregating statistics and metadata. Compiled by Marcus Malek http://www.linkedin.com/in/marcusmalek In cooperation with INTANGITOPIA http://www.intangitopia.com This document is licensed under CC - non commercial - by attribution Sweden 2.5 license.TRANSCRIPT
2009-06-23
INTANGITOPIA SPECIAL REPORT
R.I.P. OCEAN TOMO: COMPLETE AUCTION ANALYSIS
BY: MARCUS MALEK
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STATUS QUO
• Ocean Tomo sold it’s auction business mid June 2009 for 10 MUSD
• Many believe this to be a sale of ”distressed assets” after disastrous auction in spring 2009.
• Here follows a complete analysis of their 8 completed auctions until fall 2008.
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WHAT IS INTANGITOPIA:
”INTANGITOPIA IS A KNOWLEDGE PLATFORM INITIATED BY AN INTERDISCIPLINARY
GROUP OF 5 GRADUATE SCHOLARS. OUR PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE USE OF THE
LEGAL, FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL ARENAS TO LEVERAGE INTELLECTUAL ASSETS,
PROPERTY AND CAPITAL; IN THE LIGHT OF THE EMERGING KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY”
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OCEAN TOMO OVERVIEW
• First auction held spring 2006. • In total 9 auctions until spring 2009. • Vast majority of auctioned lots were
patents, from individuals and BigCo. • OT’s auction business is a pioneer. • Sold in June 09 for 10 MUSD to ICAP. • OT’s divestiture is a major stir in
emerging IP market place.
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PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT
• Give an objective view of OT performance.
• Analyze all sold lots in order to find patterns and trends.
• Statistical overview like this sheds light on whether public auction model is suitable for the IP marketplace.
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METHODOLOGY
• Sales figures for all sold lots until fall 2008 auction have been gathered.
• In addition, metadata and aggregated statistics have been calculated.
• All data is public and from official Ocean Tomo source.
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TAXONOMY AND DISCLAIMER
• All sales prices are in USD • Only US patents are part of analysis • Technology clustering is subjective
and not always according to OT • Expected value is given by seller to
OT (if there is spann, lowest is used) • Only patent lots are analyzed • Post-auction sales are not analyzed
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HI-LEVEL STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
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HI-LEVEL STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
• 84,7 MUSD generated at auctions. • 41% of offered lots got sold • Average lot has 2,11 US Patents and
costs 322,281 $ • 90 lots sold by individuals • 75 lots for less than 100,000 USD • Avg. Gap between expected- and
sale price; 336 145 USD or 878%
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SALES OVER TIME / SALE NUMBER
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DIFFERENCE % (EXP - PRICE) OVER TIME
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DIFFERENCE <1000% OVER TIME
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STATISTICS OVER TIME
• Dramatic drop over time for ”gap” between expected and sale price.
• No clear timing for high or low price sales and only slight upward trend.
• First auction posted enormous ”gaps” • When taking away extrem
”gaps” (>1000%) picture is more homogenous over time.
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PER AUCTION STATISTICS
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PER AUCTION STATISTICS
• No clear trend can be seen • Spring 2008 (#6) stands out with
strongest lot sale % (61,6) and total sales 19,6 MUSD.
• Summer 2007 (#4) has highest avg. lot price, 650 kUSD, lowest gaps (49%), but lowest lot sales (22%)
• 1st auction: avg. 0,55 MUSD gaps
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TOP TEN SALES
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TOP TEN SALES
• Top lot, 6,6 MUSD, was 34 patents, yielding only 0,2 MUSD per patent
• Top Single patent; 4.9 MUSD • No clear trend among technologies
other than all being electronics / ICT • Top ten has 5 single patent lots • No blue chip company in top ten, but
two individual sellers.
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KEY TAKEOUTS
• No clear trends and great variance in all metrics
• Gaps between expected and sale price are much higher than expected.
• Only 16 lots sold above 1 MUSD • No blue chip companies in top ten • Only ICT / electronics in top ten
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IMPLICATIONS FOR IP MARKETPLACE
• Auctions come with much uncertainty • Good platform for indivudual
inventors and small clusters, under 0,5 MUSD.
• Auctions do not seem to be the model for blue chip or larger hi-value transactions
• Seller price expections are too far from sale price for sustainability,
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THANKS FOR YOUR INTEREST!
This report was compiled by: Marcus Malek http://www.twitter.com/marcusmalek http://www.linkedin.com/in/marcusmalek
For questions or comments: marcus[dot]malek[at]gmail[dot]com
Please visit INTANGITOPIA.COM™ for more insights and thoughts on IP and innovation
related issues. http://www.intangitopia.com