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30th April, 2015
Colombia, Equities
Celsia International expansion began; attractive
valuation and upside potential
Company update
Rating
Buy
Industry
Utilities
We are reducing our target price on Celsia from COP 7,020/share to COP 6,250/share but upgrading our recommendation from HOLD to BUY, as the stock has shown a
steep drop since September (-22.8%), which has opened an interesting room for appreciation relative to our target price.
Celsia (along with EEB) is our favorite player in the Colombian utilities industry supported by our estimated fundamental value and the very attractive relative valuation.
Our target reduction is mainly supported by the deterioration of macroeconomic conditions in Colombia, higher taxes, expected tariff
revision in power distribution in Colombia and the exclusion of the hydroelectric project Porvenir II from our model. On the positive side, we are including the acquisition of power facilities in Costa
Rica and Panama and updating our estimates on power demand in Colombia which we expect to remain stable, growing at a 2014-
2024 CAGR of 2.9%, in spite of the deterioration on the macroeconomic environment in the country. In the short term, a higher expectation in spot prices boost higher our forecast in
revenues. In spite of the above mentioned updates in our valuation model, the incorporation of inorganic growth in our 2015 forecasts
resulted in a net increase in our estimates of revenues (+53.9%), EBITDA (+28.6%) and net income (+21.5%) compared to our previous projections.
Our buy rating is supported by the expected total return on shares relative to our target price (25.7%) which exceed our expected
return for the market. Moreover, the company shows an attractive relative valuation, as it is trading at relatively low forward multiples, currently at 2015E EV/EBITDA of 7.2x and 2015E P/E of 13.0x vs
8.9x and 16.9x, respectively observed in Latam peers. The main risk on shares comes from the uncertainty regarding the acquired
assets in Central America.
ADTV and Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Credicorp Capital
CREDICORP CAPITAL EQUITY RESEARCH
Jaime A Pedroza +(571) 339 4400 ext. 1025
César Cuervo, CFA +(571) 339 4400 ext. 1012
Credicorp Capital may do or seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict o f interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 2 to 6. Analyst
Certification on Page 2. Additional disclosures on page 4.
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Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15
Celsia Colcap
Stock Data
Ticker celsia cb
Price (COP) 5,070
LTM Range (COP) 6,570 - 4,560
Target 6,250
Ex pected Return 25.7%
Market Cap (USD mn) 1,424
Shares Outstanding (mn) 720
Free Float 48.0%
ADTV (USD mn) 1.1
Valuation Sumary
COP mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
EV/EBITDA 7.6 9.7 7.2 7.5 7.1
P/E 10.9 24.8 13.0 13.5 12.8
P/CF 3.6 6.2 3.0 3.2 2.9
P/BV 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9
Div Yield 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 2.8% 3.1%
Sources: Company Reports and Credicorp Capital; E Credicorp Capital Estimates
2
Celsia - Company Summary Company Description
Sector: Utilities
Rating: Buy
Target Price: COP 6,250
Stock Data
Ticker celsia cb
Price (COP) 5,070
LTM Range 6,570 - 4,560
Market Cap (USD mn) 1,424
Shares Outstanding (mn) 720
Free Float 48%
ADTV (USD mn) 1.1
Revenues Breakdown (as of Dec 2013) ETB Income Statement
COP mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Rev enues 2,381,116 2,588,782 3,444,476 3,340,355 3,465,456
EBIT 716,117 745,531 970,316 929,979 993,015
EBITDA 864,563 894,289 1,122,858 1,086,141 1,149,140
Net Income 373,645 170,527 280,368 269,437 285,942
EPS 519 237 390 374 397
EBIT Margin 30.1% 28.8% 28.2% 27.8% 28.7%
EBITDA Margin 36.3% 34.5% 32.6% 32.5% 33.2%
Net Margin 15.7% 6.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.3%
ETB Balance Sheet
COP mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Cash & Equiv alents 897,759 589,500 309,814 319,147 330,453
Total Current Assets 1,220,178 1,151,644 1,156,564 1,161,742 1,168,459
Ownership Structure Total Assets 7,326,544 9,443,350 9,483,696 9,526,150 9,581,229
Current Liabilities 407,194 1,670,469 1,600,104 1,538,551 1,478,208
Financial Debt 1,786,159 3,737,794 3,366,216 3,164,972 2,960,864
Total liabilities 2,416,064 4,606,452 4,412,415 4,242,679 4,076,278
Minority interest 1,622,157 1,350,524 1,392,386 1,433,528 1,479,261
Shareholder's equity 3,288,325 3,486,374 3,678,895 3,849,944 4,025,690
Total liabilities + Equity 7,326,544 9,443,350 9,483,696 9,526,150 9,581,229
EBITDA / Fin. Ex penses 6.09 5.67 4.27 4.70 5.29
Financial Debt / EBITDA 2.07 4.18 3.00 2.91 2.58
Financial Debt / Equity 54.3% 107.2% 91.5% 82.2% 73.5%
ROE 12.1% 5.0% 7.8% 7.2% 7.3%
ROA 5.3% 2.0% 3.0% 2.8% 3.0%
ROIC 12.9% 8.4% 9.4% 8.9% 9.3%
ETB Balance Sheet
Management COP mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
CEO: Juan Guillermo Londoño Initial Cash 744,227 897,759 589,500 309,814 319,147
CFO: Esteban Piedrahita Montoy a Cash from Operation 1,130,169 682,579 1,204,390 1,156,821 1,255,734
IR Manager: Natalia Molina Arcila CAPEX -265,033 -2,311,407 -332,224 -167,018 -173,273
w w w .celsia.com Changes in Financial Debt 69,816 1,951,635 -371,578 -201,244 -204,108
Div idends (Paid) Receiv ed -71,958 -80,593 -90,265 -101,096 -113,228
Tax es -709,461 -550,472 -690,010 -678,130 -753,819
Changes in Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Final Cash 897,759 589,500 309,814 319,147 330,453
Change in Cash 153,532 -308,259 -279,686 9,333 11,307
Sources: Company Reports, Bloomberg and Credicorp Capital; E
Credicorp Capital Estimates
Grupo Argos52.4%
Pension funds28.0%
Other19.7%
Pow er w holesale
trade
66.6%
Pow er retail trade
22.6%
Other10.8%
Celsia is a power generation and distribution company that operates in Colombia, Costa Rica and Panama. The company has 2,313 MW of installed capacity (50% thermal, 48% hydro, 2% wind). Celisa is the fourth largest power generator and the fifth largest power distribution company in Colombia with about 520,000 customers in 39 municipalities in Valle del Cauca.
- Diversitication in terms of installed capacity , geography, and businesses- Growth potential coming from new acquisitions in Central America.- Atractive relative valuation
- Uncertainty on natural gas suply in the long term in Colombia.- Concerns on green field projects in Colombia (Porveir II).
Positives Concerns
3
we are estimating
Central America to boost a 25%
increase in revenues in 2015
Celsia is trading at relatively low
forward multiples
Celsia have a higher
flexibility to face extreme weather conditions, than its
main peers in Colombia
Investment thesis
Acquisition of power generation facilities in Panama and Costa Rica to boost financials in 2015. We expect the assets acquired in Central America to boost the company’s growth in 2015. Those assets represent a 30% increase in installed capacity of
while they maintain a similar mix in generation technologies (please refer to page 5 – Acquisition In Panama And Puerto Rico, to see more details of the acquisition).
So far, Celsia has not posted detailed information on the financial perspective of those assets nor its CAPEX plan an details on the conditions of the underlying contracts. Also,
Celsia has not posted historical financial data of the power facilities and we don’t know details about the technical condition of the assets (will they need major maintenance in the
near term?). That said, we are starting our forecast supported on a fair deal assumption (reported multiples on the transaction seem to back this view), and we are not including extraordinary maintenance expenses nor major investment plans on assets.
However, based on the public information posted by Celsia and gross assumptions on
power generation and prices, we are estimating Central America to bring a 25% increase in revenues in 2015, which along with an expected growth of 7.9% in Colombia, result in an expected revenues growth of 34%. On the other hand, we are expecting EBITDA to grow
26.5%, but we expect a margin contraction from 35% in 2014 to ~32% from 2015 onwards.
Attractive relative valuation. Since September 2014 Celsia shares has dropped 22.8% opening an attractive room for appreciation relative to our target price. We believe that the steep drop in Celsia’s price could be explained by: 1) the weak financial results posted in
2H14; 2) problems observed in the development of the Porvenir II hydroelectric project (a deeper analysis of Porvenir II in page 4); and 3) the market still not incorporating the
expected financial figures coming from the acquisition of the assets in Central America (given the uncertainty on those assets). While Celsia’s financials in the last two quarters of 2014 negatively surprised us and the market, we believe that bad news came from non-
recurrent issues related with expectations on El Niño phenomenon; we expect 2015 to show a recovery and to be boosted by Panama and Costa Rica. That said, Celsia is trading
at relatively low forward multiples currently at 2015E EV/EBITDA of 7.2x and 2015E P/E of 13.0x vs 8.9x and 16.9x respectively observed in Latam peers.
Flexibility to face extreme weather conditions, due to its installed capacity mix, geographical diversification and revenues from power distribution. One of the most
interesting characteristics of Celsia compared to other power generators in Colombia is its mix in generation technologies (56% hydro, 44% thermal just in Colombia). This allows the company to have a higher flexibility than its main competitors in the country, to face
extreme weather conditions. On the other hand, the recent international expansion provides an additional source of diversification as the power systems in those countries are
affected by different weather conditions than Colombia. We estimate international revenues to represent ~19% of the total revenues of the company.
Additionally, the company is also involved in the power transmission and distribution, and retail sales in the southeast region of Colombia. We highlight that this business line
represents an stable source of revenues with a higher inorganic growth potential than those expected in power generation. However it is worth noting that this business line is exposed to the tariff revision that is expected to take place in 2Q15. We expect distribution
to represent ~ 19% of total revenues.
4
Our forecast contemplate a 5% reduction in
distribution rates from 2Q15 onwards.
We are not including the development of
Porvenir II in our estimates
Tariff revisions on power transmission and distribution. The energy regulator of Colombia (CREG) is working on the periodical revision of tariffs of the power transmission
and distribution (last revision took place in 2008); according to current regulation, tariff revisions must take place every 5 years. The revision contemplates both the regulatory
WACC at which investments in the sector are remunerated, and the value of the assets to remunerate. Also, the CREG is proposing a new regulatory scheme. So far, the impact of the tariff revision is not clear. However, a reduction of the regulatory WACC is expected,
which in turn would result in a reduction in revenues received by companies involved in these activities. The final terms of the tariff revision is expected to be posted in 2Q15. Our
forecast contemplates a 5% reduction in distribution rates from 2Q15 onwards. Concerns on the Porvenir II hydroelectric project. We decided not to include the
development of the project in our estimates and to eliminate it from our model as the project faced delays in the obtaining of environmental permits, which have resulted in
significant changes of our previous expectations. On February 2015, Celsia announced it obtained some of the environmental permits
required for the hydroelectric project Porvenir II, which are still pending on a prudential period to receive comments on the terms of the permits. The environmental permits come
with more than one year of delay with respect to the initial schedule of the project. This have resulted in delays in the expected date for the startup of the hydroelectric facility, which was initially estimated for December 2018. As a consequence, Porvenir II lost its
rights to reliability charge which we estimate as a crucial part to guarantee the financial feasibility of the project. Furthermore Celsia had to pay a guarantee of COP 34,626 mn in
Jan-15 (the provision of the guarantee was accounted for in 3Q14 results). It is worth noting that the ownership of the project is in hands of the local firm Producción
de Energía S.A.S. E.S.P. (“Proesas”); Celsia signed a purchase agreement with this company to acquire the project, conditioned to the procurement of the environmental
permits. Currently, the deal is expecting the permits to be in force, which is the contractual condition to close the purchase agreement. On the other hand, in Jun-14 Celsia renegotiated the purchase agreement with Proesas in order to recognize the new
conditions of the project, adjusting the cost of acquisition of the project (the details of the agreement are not public).
Celsia has ratified its interest in the development of the project and have stated that it is analyzing the terms of the environmental permits to advance in the construction of the
facility. However, given the complexity of the new conditions of the project and the uncertainty on the new terms of the purchase agreements and the financial feasibility of the
construction, we are excluding Porvenir II from our analysis and expecting more information about the final decision of the company to continue with the development of the plant.
Concerns regarding sustainability of the natural gas supply in the long term.
Recently, concerns regarding the sustainability of the natural gas supply in Colombia have increased. Although there is no consensus, some players of the sector have alerted that Colombia could lose its self-sustainability, leading to imports of LNG. In fact, the
government have promoted an initiative to build an LNG facility in the north of the country to allow natural gas imports to guarantee the thermal generation supply. Unless effective
measures are taken to secure gas supply in the country, the expected scarcity could result in a domestic price increase in the commodity, negatively affecting margins of thermal generation and power prices.
5
Although the
acquisition doesn’t seem like a bargain, we like the deal and
believe it is in line with the company’s
strategy
Acquisition In Panama And Puerto Rico
In August 2014 Celsia announced the acquisition of power facilities with a 530 MW installed capacity in Costa Rica and Panama from GDF Suez, for an enterprise value of USD 840 mn (USD 560mn equity value).
The acquisition increased Celsia’s installed capacity by 30%. The acquired assets include
50 MW of wind power, 118 MW run of the river hydro, and 367 MW thermal facilities (24% fuel oil, 44% heavy fuel oil, and 33% coal). The assets have a consolidated EBITDA margin of 30%-32%. With this acquisition, Celsia became the second largest power generator in
Panama and the fifth in Costa Rica, while venturing in the business of non-conventional renewable power sources with the wind farm.
According to Celsia, the transaction was closed at 9.8x EV/EBITDA 2015E multiple, which compares to the 9.1x observed in power generation companies in Latam. Although the
acquisition doesn’t seem like a bargain, we like the deal and believe it is in line with the company’s strategy. Further, not requiring an equity offering to fund the transaction, is very
positive.
Source: Celsia, Credicorp Capital
Celsia - Acquired assets from GDF Suez in Central America
Guanacaste
wind facility
50 MW
Complejo Dos Mares run of
the river hydro facility
Gualaca: 25 MW
Lorena: 34 MW
Prudencia: 59 MW
Cativá thermal facility
Fuel oil: 87 MW
Bahía Las Minas
thermal facility
Fuel oil: 160 MW
Coal: 120 MW
6
According to our
estimates, the tax reform represents a
15% reduction in our target price.
Our new forecast represents a 53.9%
increase in 2015E revenues compared
with our previous forecast
Updating estimates; what has changed?
We are updating our expectations on macroeconomic assumptions and our expected performance of the power demand and power prices. Furthermore we are including the effect of the tax reform in Colombia and excluding from our valuation model the
development of the hydroelectric Porvenir II as there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the new conditions of the project. On the other hand, we are including the new facilities
acquired in Costa Rica and Panama in our forecast. We expect Central America to generate revenue for COP 651 bn in 2015 and to have an EBITDA margin of 30%.
Tax reform in Colombia to negatively impact our valuation. According to our valuation model, the effect of the 2014 tax reform resulted in a decrease in the fair price of the
company The main points of the reform that affect Celsia are: 1) a gradual increase of the total legal
tax rate (income tax + CREE) which will go up from 34% in 2014 to 39% in 2015, 40% in 2016, 42% in 2017 and 43% in 2018; and 2) a renewal of the wealth tax which must be
paid over the net shareholder’s equity of the companies between 2015 and 2018, at a decreasing rate of 1.15%, 1.0%, 0.4%, and 0.0%, respectively. We expect the tax reform to significantly increase effective tax rates for our utilities companies sample in the next 4
years, and to negatively impact valuation.
Tariff revisions in power transmission and distribution to reduce our revenues forecast. We adjusted our revenues forecast for power distribution due to the tariff revision that is currently taking place in Colombia. We expect a reduction of 5% in distribution rates
from 2Q15 onwards.
Assets in Panama and Costa Rica to boost financials from 2015 onwards but to tighten margins. The incorporation of the acquisition in Central America resulted in an expected increase of 25% in revenues in 2015, which along with the expected growth of
7.9% in Colombia, resulted in an expected increase in revenues of 34% in 2015.
Our new forecast represents a 53.9% increase in our 2015E revenues estimates compared with our previous forecast, mainly explained by the combined effect of the revenues from Central America and higher estimates of power prices in contracts. On the other hand, we
now expect a lower EBITDA margin than expected in our previous update.
Update Prior Diff Update Prior Diff Update Prior Diff
Rev enues 3,444,476 2,238,352 53.9% 3,340,355 2,336,216 43.0% 3,465,456 2,483,679 39.5%
EBITDA 1,122,858 872,957 28.6% 1,086,141 876,081 24.0% 1,149,140 931,379 23.4%
Net Income 280,368 229,049 22.4% 269,437 222,535 21.1% 285,942 236,555 20.9%
EPS 390 318 22.4% 374 309 21.1% 397 329 20.9%
EBITDA Margin 32.6% 39.0% -6.4% 32.5% 37.5% -5.0% 33.2% 37.5% -4.3%
Net Margin 8.1% 10.2% -2.1% 8.1% 9.5% -1.5% 8.3% 9.5% -1.3%
CAPEX 332,224 462,525 -28.2% 167,018 403,634 -58.6% 173,273 409,513 -57.7%
Tax es 242,193 220,999 9.6% 244,127 214,714 13.7% 284,943 228,241 24.8%
2015E 2016E 2017E
7
We expect power demand to maintain
its growth pace at a 2014-2024 CAGR of
2.9%.
We expect power
prices in contracts to grow at a 2014-
2024 CAGR of 1.7%.
We do not expect the deterioration of the macroeconomic outlook to significantly impact power demand. The new macroeconomic environment, mainly triggered by the
performance of the oil and gas sector, has increased the market fear of a spillover across the economy. In the last six months we have gradually reviewed our growth expectations of
the Colombian economy from 4.7% y/y in the next two years to 3.7% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016. However, we do not expect the slowdown in the economy to significantly deteriorate financials of the power generation companies, as we expect power demand to maintain its
growth pace at a 2014-2024 CAGR of 2.9%.
Power prices in contracts to grow at a slow pace; spot prices to adjust. We expect
power prices in contracts to grow at a 2014-2024 CAGR of 1.7%. On the other hand we expect power spot prices to show a correction in coming months and trade once again around prices in contracts with a smaller dispersion. We expect power prices to be affected
by significant supply shocks, as it is expected that the total installed capacity of the system will increase by 30% between 2014 and 2022.
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Power demand Colombian GDP
Colombian GDP and Power Demand Growth Estimates
Sources: UPME & Credicorp Capital
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Price in contracts Spot price
Power price forecast
Sources: Credicorp Capital
8
Valuation
Our 2015E target price of COP 6,440 is the result of a DCF model discounted at an
average rolling WACC of 9.0%, assuming a perpetual growth rate of 2%. This price represents a 2015 EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x and a 2015 P/E of 16.1x.
We are reducing our target price from COP 7,020 to COP 6,220 but upgrading our recommendation on Celsia from Hold to Buy given the seep dropt observed on shares
which opened an interesting room for appreciation relative to our new target price.
Operating Cash Flow (COP mn) 2014 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E
EBITDA 894,289 1,122,863 1,086,165 1,149,159
Capex -2,311,407 -332,224 -167,018 -173,273
Working Capital Needs 22,975 34,191 6,704 8,468
Operating Tax es -293,598 -343,351 -337,522 -378,417
Free Cash Flow -1,687,741 481,479 588,329 605,937
Risk Free Rate 2.1% 2014 Debt 3,737,794
Risk Premium 6.0% 2014 Cash & Equiv alents 589,500
Lev ered Beta 0.8 2014E Minority Interest 1,350,524
Country Risk Premium 3.4% Other Assets/liabilities 15,240
Cost of Equity (COP) 10.8% Equity Value (COP mn) 4,500,667
Pre-tax Cost of Debt 4.7% Ex change Rate 2015E (COP/USD) 2,250
WACC (COP) 9.0% Outstanding Shares (mn) 720
Prerpetuty Grow th 2.0% 2015YE T.P. (COP) 6,250
EV from DCF (COP mn) 4,012,932 Current Price (COP) 5,070
EV from Perpetuity (COP mn 4,971,312 Div. Yield 2015E 2.5%
Total EV (COP mn) 8,984,245 Total Return 25.7%
9
Relative Valuation
Currently Celsia is trading at a 2015E EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.2x and a 2015E P/E of 13.0x which is below the average multiples observed in power generation companies in
LATAM which are at 2015E EV/EBITDA of 8.9x and a 2015E P/E of 16.9x. We think that the low multiples are explained by the market not incorporating the expected financial figures coming from the acquisition of the assets in Central America given the uncertainty
on those assets and the limited information provided so far.
2015E EV/EBITDA vs. 2015E P/E
P/E 12M Forward EV/EBITDA 12M Forward
Endesa Chile
E-CL
AES Gener Colbun
Enersur
Edegel
AES Tiete
Tractebel
Cesp
Celsia
Isagen
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0 23.0
2015
E E
V/E
BIT
DA
2015E P/E
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15
8
13
18
23
28
33
38
43
Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15
10
Comparable Companies
Mkt. Cap P/BV ROE
Company USD mn 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E LTM LTM
Latam Gx
Endesa Chile 13,065 20.2 15.6 10.7 9.2 2.9 46.3% 12.4% 2.5%
E-CL 1,721 18.0 16.3 7.4 7.0 1.0 24.9% 5.1% 2.6%
AES Gener 4,848 22.0 21.1 11.4 10.6 2.1 32.6% 7.9% 5.1%
Colbun 5,484 20.0 19.5 10.5 10.2 1.6 35.6% 4.4% 0.4%
Enersur 1,704 12.4 12.0 7.7 5.8 2.9 44.8% 20.3% 2.4%
Edegel 2,561 19.1 18.2 13.1 12.6 3.2 53.8% 18.9% 3.9%
Celsia 1,374 12.5 13.0 7.1 7.3 0.9 34.5% 5.0% 3.9%
Isagen 3,453 19.5 18.9 10.2 10.2 2.1 31.9% 10.5% 5.5%
AES Tiete 2,083 10.6 12.7 5.9 6.6 4.0 28.7% 37.1% 13.9%
Tractebel 7,948 20.7 11.9 10.0 6.7 3.7 46.4% 27.5% 4.5%
Cesp 2,668 11.3 18.1 4.2 8.0 0.8 34.1% 7.3% 12.9%
Electrobras 3,553 n.a. 11.5 n.a. 21.1 0.2 3.2% -6.0% 4.8%
Latam Gx Avg. 16.9 15.7 8.9 9.6 2.1 34.7% 12.5% 5.2%
Latam Intergrated
EEB 5,975 12.6 11.5 9.3 8.4 1.4 89.7% 11.2% 7.3%
Enersis 18,091 16.3 15.3 7.0 6.3 1.8 31.7% 9.8% 2.8%
Light S.A. 1,136 8.9 6.2 5.8 5.2 0.8 18.1% 20.6% 4.8%
Equatorial 2,165 15.9 10.1 9.6 7.4 1.7 19.6% 20.9% 2.3%
Cemig 6,280 10.4 9.9 7.5 7.5 1.5 31.6% 31.3% 22.6%
Latam Int. Avg. 12.6 10.2 7.7 6.9 1.4 38.1% 18.8% 7.9%
World Electric Utilities
EDF 46,539 11.1 11.3 4.9 4.8 0.9 24.9% 10.0% 5.4%
GDF Suez 51,822 15.5 14.3 6.9 6.6 0.8 16.5% 4.8% 6.0%
Enel 44,533 13.5 13.4 6.6 6.6 0.7 30.6% 0.6% 3.0%
Iberdola 42,734 16.3 15.2 8.9 8.5 1.0 22.9% 7.1% 3.5%
Endesa España 21,415 18.6 17.7 7.9 7.8 2.1 14.5% 42.7% 60.4%
AES Corp 9,317 10.5 10.0 6.8 6.7 1.3 24.2% 10.4% 1.9%
Duke Energy Corp 55,487 16.8 15.8 10.3 9.8 1.4 36.6% 4.6% 4.0%
E.On 32,032 17.5 17.9 6.1 6.2 1.0 7.2% -13.0% 4.1%
RWE 15,151 11.6 13.4 4.7 4.9 1.1 14.5% 16.9% 4.4%
World Ut. Gx Avg. 14.6 14.3 7.0 6.9 1.1 21.3% 9.4% 10.3%
P/E EV/EBITDA EBITDA
Mg.
Div. Yield
2015E
11
Financial Statements
Income Statement
COP mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Revenues 2,381,116 2,588,782 3,444,476 3,340,355 3,465,456
Cost of sales 1,436,495 1,579,262 2,108,832 2,050,093 2,127,487
Gross profit 944,621 1,009,520 1,335,644 1,290,263 1,337,969
Gross margin 39.7% 39.0% 38.8% 38.6% 38.6%
SG&A 228,504 263,989 365,328 360,284 344,954
EBIT 716,117 745,531 970,316 929,979 993,015
EBIT mgn 30.1% 28.8% 28.2% 27.8% 28.7%
EBITDA 864,563 894,289 1,122,858 1,086,141 1,149,140
EBITDA mgn 36.3% 34.5% 32.6% 32.5% 33.2%
Non operating income 199,282 73,299 89,334 77,759 80,410
Non operating ex penses (192,968) (265,107) (363,189) (327,820) (317,809)
FX result (12,969) (3,251) (6,452) (1,788) (1,797)
Earnings before taxes 709,461 550,472 690,010 678,130 753,819
Tax es 194,597 216,782 242,193 244,127 284,943
Minority interest 141,219 163,163 167,449 164,566 182,934
Net Income 373,645 170,527 280,368 269,437 285,942
Net mgn 15.7% 6.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.3%
Balance Sheet
COP mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Cash and equiv alents 897,759 589,500 309,814 319,147 330,453
Accounts receiv able 324,206 524,153 633,234 652,378 675,223
Inv entories 57,208 72,318 103,587 106,708 110,488
Fix ed Assets 3,805,469 5,968,118 6,147,801 6,158,656 6,175,803
Other 2,241,903 2,289,261 2,289,261 2,289,261 2,289,261
Assets 7,326,544 9,443,350 9,483,696 9,526,150 9,581,229
Financial debt 1,786,159 3,737,794 3,366,216 3,164,972 2,960,864
Accounts pay able 549,041 787,073 961,615 990,584 1,025,678
Pension liabilities 80,864 81,585 84,585 87,123 89,736
Liabilities 2,416,064 4,606,452 4,412,415 4,242,679 4,076,278
Minority Interest 1,622,157 1,350,524 1,392,386 1,433,528 1,479,261
Shareholders equity 3,288,325 3,486,374 3,678,895 3,849,944 4,025,690
Sources: Company reports and Credicorp Capital; E Credicorp Capital Estimates
12
Operating Figures and Financial Ratios
Ratios
COP mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Profitability
ROE 11.4% 4.9% 7.6% 7.0% 7.1%
Net margin 15.7% 6.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.3%
Rev enues / Assets 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Assets / Equity 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4
ROA 5.1% 1.8% 3.0% 2.8% 3.0%
ROIC 12.4% 6.8% 9.3% 8.9% 9.3%
Margins
Gross mgn 39.7% 39.0% 38.8% 38.6% 38.6%
EBIT mgn 30.1% 28.8% 28.2% 27.8% 28.7%
EBITDA mgn 36.3% 34.5% 32.6% 32.5% 33.2%
Net mgn 15.7% 6.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.3%
Leverage
Debt/ Equity 54.3% 107.2% 91.5% 82.2% 73.5%
Debt/ Assets 24.4% 39.6% 35.5% 33.2% 30.9%
Debt/ EBITDA 2.1 4.2 3.0 2.9 2.6
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.0 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.3
Valuation
Multiples
FV/EBITDA 7.6 9.7 7.2 7.5 7.1
P/E 10.9 24.8 13.0 13.5 12.8
P/CF 3.6 6.2 3.0 3.2 2.9
P/BV 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9
Div . Yield 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 2.8% 3.1%
Sources: Company reports and Credicorp Capital; E Credicorp Capital Estimates
13
Stock Price
Celsia vs. Colcap, Last 5 years Celsia vs. Colcap, Last 3 years
Sources: Bloomberg, Credicorp Capital Sources: Bloomberg, Credicorp Capital
Celsia vs. Colcap, LTM Celsia vs. Colcap, Last 3 years
Sources: Bloomberg, Credicorp Capital Sources: Bloomberg, Credicorp Capital
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15
Volume Celsia Colcap
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14
Volume Celsia Colcap
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
Volume Celsia Colcap
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15
Volume Celsia Colcap
14
Important Disclosures This research report was prepared by CredicorpCapital Peru S.A and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or IM Trust S.A. Corredores de Bolsa, companies authorized to engage in securities activ ities in Peru, Colombia and
Chile, respectively and indirect subsidiaries of Credicorp Capital Ltd. (jointly referred to as “Credicorp Capital”). None of the companies jointly referred to as Credicorp Capital are regis tered as broker-dealers in the United S tates and, therefore, they are not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. This research report
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Credicorp Securities Inc. accepts responsibili ty for the contents of this research report, subject to the terms set out below, to the extent that it is delivered to a U.S. person other than a major U.S. institutional investor.
Any analyst whose name appears on this research report is not regis tered or qualified as a research analyst with the Financial
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The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the cover.
Regulation AC - Analyst Certification: Each Equity Research Analyst listed on the front-page of this report is princ ipally responsible for the preparation and content of all or any identified portion of this research report and hereby certifies thatwith
respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or security that the Equity Research Analyst covers in this research report, all of the v iews expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal v iews about
those issuer(s) or securities. Each Equity Research Analyst also certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly , related to the specific recommendation(s) or v iew(s) expressed by that Equity Research Analyst in this research report.
Each Equity Research Analyst certifies that he or she is acting independently and impartially from the referenced
company/shareholders, directors and is not affected by any current or potential conflic t of interest that may arise from any of the companies‟ activ ities.
Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of this research report attest(s) that no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly , related to the specific recommendations that
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information relating to research and conflict of interest management.
15
B.Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Neither Credicorp Securities Inc. or its affiliates „beneficially own‟, as determined in accordance with Section 13(d) of the Exchange
Act, 1% or more of the equity securities of the company referenced in this report. Credicorp Securities Inc., its affi liates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may have interests, or long or short positions, and may at any time make purchases or
sales as a principal or agent of the securities referred to herein. C.Compensation and Investment Banking Activities
Neither Credicorp Securities Inc. or any of its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months. Within the last 12 months, Credicorp Securities Inc. or its affiliates have received compensation for
investment banking serv ices rom the subject company in the past 12 months. Credicorp Securities Inc. or its affiliates do expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking serv ices from the subject company in the next 3 months.
D. Rating System
Stock ratings are based on the analyst‟s expectation of the stock‟s total return during the twelve to eighteen months following assignment of the rating. This v iew is based on the target price, set as described below, and on the analyst‟s opinion, general market conditions and economic developments.
Buy: Expected returns of 5 percentage points or more in excess over the expected return of the local index, over the next 12-18
months. Hold: Expected returns of +/- 5% in excess/below the expected return of the local index over the next 12-18 months. Underperform: Expected to underperform the local index by 5 percentage points or more over the next 12-18 months.
Under Review / Restricted: Company coverage is under rev iew or restricted.
The IPSA, COLCAP and IGBVL indexes are the selective equity indexes calculated by the Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago, the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, and the Bolsa de Valores de Lima, respectively .
In making a recommendation, the analyst compares the target price with the actual share price, and compares the resulting expected return for the IPSA, the COLCAP, and/or the IGBVL indexes, as estimated by IM Trust Corredores de Bolsa S.A.,
Credicorp Capital Colombia Sociedad Comisionis ta de Bolsa, and/or CredicorpCapital Peru S.A, and then makes a recommendation derived from the difference in upside potential between the shares and the respective index.
E. Distribution of Ratings
Rating
N° of Companies covered with this
rating
Companies covered with this rating
(% )
Buy 32 39%
Hold 41 49%
Underperform 7 8%
Under Review /
Restricted 3 4%
Total 83 100%
16
F. Price Target
Unless otherwise s tated in the text of this report, target prices in this report are based on either a discounted cash flow valuation or
comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst‟s v iews on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation
method is used there is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the company‟s products. Such demand variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activ ity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be
affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in certain industries, in regulations. Investment in overseas markets and instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, and
political and social conditions. This discussion of valuation methods and risk factors is not comprehensive – further information is available upon request.
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This product is not for retail clients or private indiv iduals. The information contained in this publication was obtained from various publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but has not
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17
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18
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19
Heinrich Lessau Hugo Horta
Director of Research Director of Sales & Trading
[email protected] [email protected]
CHILE COLOMBIA PERU Hernán Arellano
Head of Equities
Francisca Manuschevich César Cuervo Héctor Collantes [email protected]
Head of Equity Research Head of North Andean Equity Research Head of Equity Research
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2446 1798 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1012 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 33052 Javier Günther Marilyn Macdonald Cristián Castillo
International Equity Sales International Equity Sales International Sales Trader
Christopher DiSalvatore Jaime Pedroza Fernando Pereda [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Associate: Retail & Financials Senior Analyst: Utilities Senior Analyst: Cement & Utilities # (562) 2450 1695 # (4477) 7151 5855 # (786) 999 1633
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2446 1724 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1025 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 37856 CHILE PERU COLOMBIA
Arturo Prado Juan C. Domínguez Iván Bogarín René Ossa Rodrigo Zavala Juan A. Jiménez
Senior Analyst: Natural Resources Senior Analyst: Banks Senior Analyst: Retail & Others International Equity Sales Head of Equity - Peru Head of International Equity Sales
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2450 1688 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1026 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 33055 # (562) 2651 9324 # (511) 313 2918 Ext 36044 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1701
Andrés Ossa Sebastián Gallego Tamara Vasquez Christian Munchmeyer Ursula Mitterhofer Santiago Castro
Analyst: Utilities, Telecom & I.T. Analyst: Oil & Gas Research Assistant International Sales & Trading Sales & Trading International Sales & Trading
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2651 9332 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1594 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 37946 # (562) 2450 1613 # (511) 313 2918 Ext 32922 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1344
Tomás Sanhueza Carlos E. Rodriguez
Analyst: Food & Beverages, Healthcare Analyst: GEA & infrastructure
[email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2446 1751 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1365
Pilar González
Analyst: Transport
# (562) 2446 1768 Felipe García
Head of Fixed Income
Lourdes Alamos [email protected]
Research Coordinator & Holdings Analyst
# (562) 2450 1609 CHILE COLOMBIA PERU
Gonzalo Covarrubias Carlos Sanchez Alfredo Bejar
Head of Capital Markets Head of Fixed Income Head of Fixed Income / FX Trading
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
CHILE COLOMBIA PERU # (562) 2450 1635 # (571) 323 9154 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36148
Paulina Yazigi Daniel Velandia Irvin León Guido Riquelme Christian Jarrin Vallerie Yong
Head of Research & Chief Economist Head of Research & Chief Economist Senior Fixed Income Analyst Head of Sales RM Fixed Income Offshore Local FI Senior Trader
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2450 1637 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1505 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 37854 # (562) 2446 1712 # (571) 340 2591 # (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908
Felipe Lubiano Sergio Ferro Alberto Zapata Belén Larraín Andrés Valderrama Evangeline Arapoglou
Senior Fixed Income Analyst Fixed Income Analyst Fixed Income Analyst Head of International FI Sales Fixed Income Trader Senior International FI Trader
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2651 9308 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1609 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36018 # (562) 2446 1720 # (571) 323 9163 # (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908
Paulina Valdivieso Camilo A. Durán Paz Stepke José Andrés Riveros Lizeth Espíritu
Fixed Income Analyst Macro Analyst International Fixed Income Sales Fixed Income Trader Fixed Income Trader
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2651 9337 # (5511) 339 4400 Ext. 1383 # (562) 2651 9336 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1180 # (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908
Andrés Osorio Benjamín Diaz
Economist Local Fixed Income Sales
[email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2446 1760 # (562) 2446 1738
FIXED INCOME & ECONOMICS RESEARCH
CONTACT LIST
ANDEAN RESEARCH TEAM SALES & TRADING
EQUITY RESEARCH EQUITY SALES & TRADING
FIXED INCOME SALES & TRADING