Climate Leadership Conference February 23rd, 2015

Communicating Climate Change and the Case for Action

Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD emaibach@gmu.edu

My remit – to answer four key questions:

• What does the public think about climate change? • Who are they listening to? • Who do they expect to take action? • What do they want to see done?

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• Climate change is real • It’s human-caused • It’s harmful to humans • It’s solvable

Support for Societal

Response

Support for Climate Policies

Five key beliefs about climate change contribute to a range of helpful attitudes and actions

Sources: Ding-Ding et al., 2012; Lewandowsky et al., 2012; Roser-Renouf et al., 2014; Krosnick et al., 2006

Political & Consumer Activism

Experts agree: human-caused

climate change is happening

The “big five” key beliefs

Do you think global warming is happening? Base: Americans 18+. October, 2014. Note: Respondents who either said they “don’t know” or who did not answer the question are not included in the chart. As a result, percentages sum to less than 100%.

Majority of Americans Think Global Warming Is Happening

- Continuing decline in the number of Americans who think it is not happening -

71%

57% 61% 64% 63% 66% 70%

63% 63% 64% 66%

10%

20% 18% 18% 17% 14% 12% 16%

23% 19%

16% 0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

11/2008(n=2,164)

1/2010(n=1,001)

6/2010(n=1,024)

5/2011(n=1,010)

11/2011(n=1,000)

3/2012(n=1,008)

9/2012(n=1,061)

4/2013(n=1,045)

11/2013(n=830)

4/2014(n=1,013)

10/2014(n=1,275)

Believe GW is happening Believe GW is NOT happening

Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is… Base: Americans 18+. October, 2014.

Half of Americans Think That If Global Warming Is Happening, It Is Mostly Human Caused

57%

47% 50% 47% 50% 46%

54% 49% 47%

52% 50%

32% 36% 34% 35% 33%

37% 30%

33% 37%

32% 32%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

11/2008(n=2,164)

1/2010(n=1,001)

6/2010(n=1,024)

5/2011(n=1,010)

11/2011(n=1,000)

3/2012(n=1,008)

9/2012(n=1,061)

4/2013(n=1,045)

11/2013(n=830)

4/2014(n=1,013)

10/2014(n=1,275)

Think GW is mostly caused by human activities

Think GW is mostly caused by natural changes in the environment

Which comes closest to your own view? Base: Americans 18+.

Four in Ten Americans Believe Most Scientists Think Global Warming Is Happening

47%

34% 34% 39%

41%

35%

44% 42% 42% 40% 44%

33%

40% 45%

40%

39%

41%

36% 33% 33% 32% 31%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

11/2008(n=2,164)

1/2010(n=1,001)

6/2010(n=1,024)

5/2011(n=1,010)

11/2011(n=1,000)

3/2012(n=1,008)

9/2012(n=1,061)

4/2013(n=1,045)

11/2013(n=830)

4/2014(n=1,013)

10/2014(n=1,275)

Most scientists think global warming is happening

There is a lot of disagreement among scientists about global warming

How much do you think global warming will harm…? Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,275). October, 2014.

Most Americans Think Global Warming Is a Relatively Distant Threat

12% 15% 16% 23% 24% 29% 44% 46% 24%

28% 27% 30% 29% 26%

20% 18%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Youpersonally

Your family People inyour

community

People in theU.S

People inother

industrializedcountries

People indevelopingcountries

Plant/animalspecies

Futuregenerations

of people

GW will cause a great deal of harm Moderate amount of harm

36% 42% 43%

53% 53% 55% 64% 64%

When do you think global warming will start to harm people…? Base: Americans 18+. October, 2014.

One in Three Americans Thinks People in the U.S. Are Being Harmed “Right Now” by Global Warming

34%

25% 29% 32% 30% 30%

36% 34% 34% 32% 33%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

11/2008(n=2,164)

1/2010(n=1,001)

6/2010(n=1,024)

5/2011(n=1,010)

11/2011(n=1,000)

3/2012(n=1,008)

9/2012(n=1,061)

4/2013(n=1,045)

11/2013(n=830)

4/2014(n=1,013)

10/2014(n=1,275)

How worried are you about global warming? Base: Americans 18+. October, 2014.

Over Half of Americans Are Worried About Global Warming, But Few Are “Very” Worried

17% 12% 12% 9% 12% 11% 16% 14% 15% 15% 11%

46%

38% 41% 43% 42% 43% 42%

37% 38% 41% 45%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

11/2008(n=2,164)

1/2010(n=1,001)

6/2010(n=1,024)

5/2011(n=1,010)

11/2011(n=1,000)

3/2012(n=1,008)

9/2012(n=1,061)

4/2013(n=1,045)

11/2013(n=830)

4/2014(n=1,013)

10/2014(n=1,275)

Very worried Somewhat worried

63%

50% 53% 52% 54% 54% 58%

51% 53% 55% 56%

Few Americans Are Optimistic Humans Will Reduce Global Warming

Which of the following statements comes closest to your view?

Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,275). October, 2014.

51%

45% 47%

41%

47% 46% 49%

45%

40% 42%

44%

22%

17%

21% 25% 25%

21% 22% 24%

25% 25% 22%

16% 15% 18%

18% 15% 20% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17%

6%

13% 10% 11%

10% 9% 8%

11% 13%

10% 10%

5%

10%

5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 3%

5% 6% 7%

0%

25%

50%

11/08(n=2,164)

1/2010(n=1,001)

6/2010(n=1,024)

5/2011(n=1,010)

11/2011(n=1,000)

3/2012(n=1,008)

9/2012(n=1,061)

4/2013(n=1,045)

11/2013(n=830)

4/2014(n=1,013)

10/2014(n=1,275)

Humans could reduce global warming, but it’s unclear at this point whether we will do what’s necessary

Humans could reduce global warming, but people aren’t willing to change their behavior, so we’re not going to

Humans can’t reduce global warming, even if it is happening

Global warming isn’t happening

Humans can reduce global warming and we are going to do so successfully

My remit – to answer four key questions:

• What does the public think about climate change? • Who are they listening to? • Who do they expect to take action? • What do they want to see done?

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Americans Trust Climate Scientists, Friends & Family Most As Sources Of Information About Global Warming

- % of Americans who strongly or somewhat trust… -

How much do you trust or distrust the following as a source of information about global warming? Base: Americans 18+.

13%

19%

23%

29%

37%

42%

51%

53%

59%

60%

64%

66%

67%

71%

73%

75%

76%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Oil & gas companies (2012)

Car companies (2012)

Consumer goods companies (2012)

Your U.S. Congressperson (2011)

Mainstream news media (2012)

Religious leaders (2010)

Barack Obama (2012)

Your primary care doctor (2011)

T.V. weather reporters (2012)

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (2011)

Environmental organizations (2008)

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2011)

Other kinds of scientists (i.e., not climate scientists) (2012)

National Park Service (2011)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (2011)

Friends & family (2008)

Climate scientists (2012)

My remit – to answer four key questions:

• What does the public think about climate change? • Who are they listening to? • Who do they expect to take action? • What do they want to see done?

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Americans Are Most Likely to Say Corporations and Industry, as Well as Citizens Themselves, Should be Doing More to Address

Global Warming

16%

16%

15%

17%

21%

23%

35%

34%

37%

39%

37%

36%

39%

32%

26%

28%

28%

27%

23%

24%

20%

9%

9%

8%

9%

10%

6%

5%

13%

10%

10%

10%

11%

8%

7%

0% 50% 100%

President Obama

My governor

My local governmentofficials

My member of Congress

The U.S. Congress

Citizens themselves

Corporations and industry

Should be doing much more More Currently doing right amount Less Much less

Do you think each of the following should be doing more or less to address global warming? Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,275). October, 2014.

My remit – to answer four key questions:

• What does the public think about climate change? • Who are they listening to? • Who do they expect to take action? • What do they want to see done?

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Do you think that global warming should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the president and Congress? Do you think that developing sources of clean energy should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the president and Congress? Base: Americans 18+.

Majorities of Americans Think Developing Clean Energy And Global Warming Should Be Priorities

For The President and Congress

89% 94% 91% 90% 92% 92%

87% 87% 86%

83%

69% 77%

70% 70% 72% 77%

71% 73% 71%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

11/2008(n=2,164)

1/2010(n=1,001)

6/2010(n=1,024)

5/2011(n=1,010)

11/2011(n=1,000)

3/2012(n=1,008)

9/2012(n=1,061)

4/2013(n=1,045)

11/2013(n=830)

10/2014(n=1,275)

Think developing clean energy sources should be medium/high/very high priority

Think global warming should be medium/high/very high priority

Americans Support a Broad Range of Policies That Will Help Reduce or Prepare for the Impacts of Global Warming

26%

29%

36%

36%

31%

36%

46%

41%

41%

52%

20%

13%

13%

12%

10%

16%

11%

9%

9%

7%

0% 50% 100%

Require electric utilities to produce at least 20% of theirelectricity from wind, solar, or other renewable energy

sources, even if it costs the average household an extra$100 a year

Regulate carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) asa pollutant

Provide tax rebates for people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels

Fund more research into renewable energy sources, suchas solar and wind power

Increase funding for improvements to local roads, bridges,and buildings to make them more resistant to extreme

weather

Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

How much do you support or oppose the following policies? Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,275). October, 2014.

How much do you support or oppose the following policy? Set strict carbon dioxide emission limits on existing coal-fired power plants to reduce global warming and improve public health. Power plants would have to reduce their emissions and/or invest in renewable energy and energy efficiency. The cost of electricity to consumers and companies would likely increase. Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,275). October, 2014.

Two in Three Americans Support Setting Strict Carbon Dioxide Emission Limits on Existing Coal-Fired Power Plants to Reduce

Global Warming and Improve Public Health

Strongly support (23%)

Strongly oppose (15%)

Somewhat support (44%)

Somewhat oppose (17%)

A very important caveat:

Only 1 in 4 Americans holds strong views about climate change

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Global Warming’s “Six Americas”

Yale/George Mason, Oct. 2014; N=1,272

In summary: • What does the public think about climate change?

– About 2/3rds are on board, but only 13% have strong views – However, the 13% who object also have very strong views

• Who are they listening to? – They aren’t hearing much (except from politicians & pundits)

• Who do they expect to take action? – The business community, government, ordinary Americans

• What do they want to see done? – Clean energy clean air & water better health

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