commodity risk management - oliver wyman

global Risk Center

IN PRACTICE GUIDEsix stePs to assess commoditY risK exPosure

About this RepoRt

this report and the associated workbook provide guidance for companies to better

understand and quantify the impact of commodity risks on earnings in order to improve an

organizationrsquos commodity risk management

the supporting excel workbook is available by clicking on the pushpin icon this guide is a

companion piece to ldquoVolatility not Vulnerabilityrdquo published by the Association for Financial

professionals (AFp) and oliver Wyman in october 2011 the article is available by clicking on

the pushpin icon or can be found online at wwwoliverwymancom

CoRpoRAte ChAllenges in mAnAging Commodity Risk

bull developing management strategies (pricing procurement and hedging) using a holistic risk-return perspective instead of just heuristics to make decisions

bull evaluating portfolios of potential mitigation strategies which have impact on internal diversification and aggregation in adequate depth

bull Automating the aggregation and integration of a wide range of data and assumptions (eg purchasing contracts commodity forecasts ability to pass-through)

bull Applying sufficient tools to engage suppliers on contract terms using a risk-return perspective and to develop innovative structures that are mutually beneficial

bull engaging champions and senior sponsors who are passionate about implementing long-term risk mitigation strategies such as revised contract structures or pricing changes

bull treating commodity price risk management as a ldquomargin stabilizationrdquo process rather than a ldquocostrdquo

Global Risk Center

VOLATILITY NOT VULNERABILITYTO SURVIVE SWINGS IN COMMODITY PRICES COMPANIES MUST FIRST BUILD A RISK-MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

Historically most businesses could simply withstand changes in commodity prices given that the swings were usually temporary cyclicalmdashand manageable However structural changes in the global economy are creating wilder swings in commodity prices that are not only affecting short-term profits but also long-term planning and investment In this environment every company must develop a formal risk management approach to counter the growing volatility in commodity prices For corporate leaders this means building the infrastructure governance programs and analytical capabilities that can help them better manage their exposure to commodities

1 COMMODITY PRICES AND VOLATILITY

After a brief respite in 2009 the volatility that has come to define many commodity markets

roared back in the latter half of 2010mdashmuch to the dismay of businesses for whom oil

industrial metals and other raw materials comprise a significant share of their costs Crude

oil cracked the psychological barrier of $100 per barrel major food price indexes reached

record highs in the first quarter of 2011 and base and industrial metals such as copper and

aluminum also reached new highs mdashcreating significant pain for buyers (see Exhibit 1) Even

where prices pulled back the cost of many commodities remained higher than beforemdashthe

result of structural shifts in supply and demand on both a local and global scale (For a closer

look at the causes of volatility see Exhibit 2)

These commodity shocks are not only cutting into corporate profits but are testing the

abilities of even the best businesses to plan for and invest in the future Already in 2011 the

CEOs of consumer-facing companies as diverse as PepsiCo Kraft Kimberly-Clark and Levirsquos

have said they expect commodity price inflation to pose a significant challenge to continued

earnings growth over the next several years Those in the middle of the value chain have a

tougher challenge as they cannot easily raise prices to recover lost margins Few expect this

storm to pass quickly The 2011 World Economic Forum Global Risks Survey found corporate

executives in agreement that a key risk they face in the coming decade is extreme volatility in

energy and other commodity prices1

1 World Economic Forum ldquoGlobal Risks 2011rdquo 6th edition January 2011 Oliver Wyman was a contributor to that report

EXHIBIT 1 COMMODITY PRICES ARE SOARING INDEX

8

12

10

6

4

2

0

14

MULTIPLE OF INITIAL PRICEREAL PRICE HISTORY

1987 1991 1995 2003 20111999 2007

Crude Oil

Copper

Wheat

source Datastream 2011

Copyright copy 2011 Oliver Wyman 3

ExhIBIT 2 WhY ThE VOLATILITY

CAUSE DESCRIPTION

Erratic weather Catastrophic weather events have affected production (2009 drought in Australia affected global wheat prices)

Emerging markets Growth in emerging markets has increased demand for food energy and raw materials Global food output will have to rise 70 by 2050 to meet demand while global energy demand is predicted to increase by 36 between 2008-2035

Speculation Emergence of commodities as an investment class (development of commodities-based ETFs)

Infrastructure spending Deteriorating infrastructure in developed countries and a lack of infrastructure in emerging economies hampers the physical flow of commodities

Supply-country strategies Development of market-distorting trade policies (Russian wheat export ban followed crop shortfall in 2010)

Purchasing-country strategies

Countries developing more sophisticated buying capabilities (Korea opened a grain-trading office in Chicago in 2011)

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations World Summit on Food Security November 2009

International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2010

This volatility could persist for years particularly given that governments appear willing to disrupt or intervene in markets including halting exports These collective forces have created pressure for corporations to develop strategies to mitigate this growing risk While companies in agri-processing oil refining and wholesale electricity generation have developed formal approaches to trading and risk management programs the majority of companies need to do moremdashmuch more

Given the likelihood of further volatility in commodity prices every company must adopt an analytic risk framework based on a clear understanding of its exposure This paper offers guidance on developing a plan for managing commodity risks that draws on the best practices of companies from around the world The approach is built around the three pillars of a ldquobest practicesrdquo program governance infrastructure and analytics The paper provides an in-depth review of the role of analytics and outlines a new systematic approach to managing commodity risk illustrated through case studies

ONE COMPANYrsquoS MOVES TO TAME ITS VULNERABILITY TO VOLATILITY

A leading industrial company failed to deliver its projected earnings due to a decline in the profitability of non-core energy activities To measure the companyrsquos total exposure to energy volatilitymdashand quantify the potential effect on future profits it needed to develop an integrated energy risk profile In other words the company needed the ability to aggregate the energy exposure of each business unit and evaluate the effectiveness of existing mitigation efforts before it could truly understand net exposure

The company analyzed commodity volatilities and correlations to produce a probabilistic analysis and derive ldquoEPS-at-riskrdquo estimates demonstrating the portion of earnings that were vulnerable to these price volatilities It then adopted a risk assessment tool capable of performing scenario analysis linked to alternative market states and specific events integrating this discipline by training both operational and financial staff in Treasury Procurement Planning and Operations This helped the company to gain insights into the aspects of its energy exposure that were most sensitive to price movements under different future states and thus were targets for mitigation efforts


2 COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

DEVELOPING A COMMODITY RISK GOVERNANCE PROGRAM

A crude oil producermarketer in Eastern Europe was recently seeking to enhance margins by creating regional physical trading capability First the Board required stakeholder alignment on a multi-dimensional risk appetite statement to guide risk and scale considerations High level loss limits were linked to the risk appetite and from these ldquodesk-levelrdquo limits were calculated By codifying the risk limits in policies the equity usage growth targets and working capital requirements were made explicit and served to support all later decisions on the business expansion plan

A structured commodity risk management framework is built around three pillars

Governance Infrastructure and Analytics Together these pillars support both short-

term tactical decisions and long-term strategic initiatives (see Exhibit 3)

GOVERNANCE

The first pillar of this framework is Governance in which an organization identifies the main

objectives of its commodity risk management program Companies first create a risk

appetite statement In this critical step an organization defines its risk tolerance and

aligns it with its broader performance objectives The risk appetite statement thus

establishes the basis of the organizationrsquos risk limits

ExhIBIT 3 COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

SHORT-TERM TACTICAL DECISION MAKING

LONG-TERM STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING

GOVERNANCE

bull Risk appetite and corporate objectivesbull Risk limits bull Risk policybull Delegations of Authoritybull Decision frameworks

INFRASTRUCTURE

bull Reportingbull Accountingbull ITsystemsbull Organizational designbull Human capital

ANALYTICS

bull Price forecastingbull Commodity exposure modeling bull Stress and scenario testingbull Hedge optimization


INFRASTRUCTURE

The second pillar Infrastructure comprises the organizational structure systems and

human capital that companies need to measure and manage risks Organizations need to

assess whether they have the systems to capture and monitor the necessary data flows The

organizational structure is important because the volatility in commodity markets requires

discipline and a tight alignment between managing cost- and revenue-related risks across

the enterprise historically these functions worked independently but today that results in

inefficiencies or even conflicting actions by different internal teams human capital is also

key In some cases a corporation may not have the experience or capabilities to manage

commodity risks effectively While a company can outsource risk management to financial

institutions or other market participants it pays a significant premium for that service and

potentially forfeits any upside potential In the process it gives its ldquopartnerrdquo proprietary

information they can use to trade for solely their own benefit

INCREASING EFFECTIVENESS ThROUGh IMPROVED INFRASTRUCTURE

The effects of steady growth were slowly compromising the risk management effectiveness of a major North American crude and distillates marketertrader Reporting timeliness was eroding error rates were climbing and managementrsquos confidence in risk control was decreasing prompting a full review of the organizational design and processes This revealed that the risk control function (middle office) was still performing much of the trade reconciliation that trade details were transmitted by email and that most reporting was done through spreadsheets

Several straightforward organizational shifts and systems enhancements eliminated a number of bottlenecks and enabled risk reporting down to the cargo level by desk and counterparty

ANALYTICS

The third pillar of a commodity risk management program is Analytics Organizations

cannot assess their financial exposure to commodity price swings without robust analytical

tools These analytics (or ldquomodelingrdquo) platforms support decision making at every level

mdash by helping managers model the future paths of commodity prices conduct stress- and

scenario-testing and evaluate and optimize risk-return profiles using a range of price-risk

management strategies however analytical capabilities vary dramatically from firm to firm

Companies should take a sequential approach to developing a robust analytics framework

that will support commodity risk management


ThINK LIKE A TRADER

Trading is viewed as a necessary evil by some corporations given the connotations of excessive speculation and risk-taking with derivatives (in this case commodity futures contracts) A recent review of annual reports reveals that many companies disclosing commodity positions caution that these are strictly for hedging purposes and that the company ldquodoes not hold financial derivative positions for the purposes of tradingrdquo

Whether they realize it or not many companies are in fact speculating on commodity pricesmdashon both the cost and revenue sides Procurement officers are tasked with getting the best price on purchases for the company and its business units So the procurement staff commonly enters into forward fixed-price arrangements to guarantee both supply and pricing Just like traders they have thus made a bet on future prices and concluded price risk management with that view in mind

Companies need to accept that the days of a ldquoset it and forget itrdquo approach to risk management are over That approach was fine when volatility was low and prices increased gradually over time Today companies need to empower designated executives to think like traders ldquoIs this a good or bad price Should I buy more or run down inventoryrdquo Since most companies arenrsquot traders by nature they need to create a trading playbook that is integrated with their overall game plans

First a company must understand its commodity risk profile This helps the organization

assess its net exposure to commodity pricesmdashand their inevitable volatilitymdashacross

business and customer segments Detailed analysis also allows the organization to then

develop long-term strategies to mitigate commodity-related risks

A commodity risk profile provides a common understanding for senior management and

a fact-based foundation for evaluating the effectiveness of risk-mitigation actions With

this knowledge management can determine if the companyrsquos current commodity risk

exposure is within its risk tolerance and whether it has communicated these expectations

to stakeholders This analysis also helps the management team evaluate different risk

management strategies It promotes risk mitigation at the portfolio level which helps

reveal any risks lurking in individual business units or departments In short this analysis

will allow the company to optimize risk-return positioning

ThE NET ExPOSURE ChALLENGE

Determining true net exposure requires consideration of several factors gross commodity exposure existing risk mitigations foreign exchange flows demand sensitivity and the interactions among these This can be challenging for an enterprise with wide-spread operations or multiple product lines Typically each factorrsquos net impact at the corporate level is first assessed and any offsets across factors can then be accounted for


To manage commodity price risks in ways that are consistent with broader corporate

objectives companies need a robust set of analytic tools to calculate the current exposure

Exhibit 4 offers a six-step analytical approach that companies can use to determine the

effect of commodity price risks and mitigation efforts on key financial metrics

The first step in the analytical framework requires management to build a forecast

of commodity prices using simulations or other techniques The company should

complement these forecasts with an analysis of alternative price outcomes based on ldquostress

eventsrdquo to understand fully how prices may evolve

In the second step the management team estimates the volume of future commodity

purchases across the enterprise In Step 3 this demand forecast is combined with

price projections to determine the firmrsquos gross commodity exposure In Step 4 the risk

management strategies already in place are identified Then in Step 5 these are applied

against the gross exposure to generate a ldquonet commodity exposurerdquo for the enterprise The

process ends with Step 6 the creation of a holistic company-wide risk profile ndash with the

sensitivities in price projections identified in Step 1 used to explore the potential impact on

EBITDA debt covenants and other financial metrics


ExhIBIT 4 CREATING A hOLISTIC COMMODITY RISK PROFILE

bull Use analytic engines to simulate potential commodity price pathways (data driven)

bull Incorporate market context and paradigm shiftsscenario analysis ( judgment driven)

bull Integrates historical patterns market intelligence and fundamental analysis

bull Unifies disparate views of expected and highlow commodity price scenarios across organization

bull Incorporates interrelationships and correlations between commodities and currencies

STEP ANALYSIS BENEFITS

bull Centralizes commodity requirements across business units and geographies

bull Enables testing of alternative commodity purchase requirements using price elasticity analysis

bull Determine expected commodity purchase volume based on sales expectations

bull Gives context of expected commodity exposure compared to PampL and other risks

bull Accounts for ldquonatural hedgesrdquo in the portfolio

bull Shows shifts due to changes in business mix commodity price expectations

bull Calculate expected commodity exposure (eg price multiplied by volume)

bull Brings together and coordinates dierent functions of the organization (eg Strategy Procurement Treasury) and geographies

bull Sets understanding of risk management options for key commodity exposures

bull Define options for managing commodity price risk

bull Centralize risk management options undertaken across organization

bull Helps management assess the eectiveness of the risk management portfolio vs desired exposure

bull Provides understanding of how commodity price risk flows through the organization

bull Calculate exposure after incorporating current risk management portfolio

bull Enables objective evaluation and comparison of a range of risk management strategies

bull Promotes risk mitigation at a portfolio level to minimize sub-optimal risk mitigation at individual business unit or department level

bull Provides view of the earnings impact from commodity prices at dierent levels of probability

bull Determine impact of commodity price projections and exposure on financial metrics (eg EBITDA cash flow debt covenants)

COMMODITY PRICEPROJECTIONS

SALES PRICINGANDPURCHASE VOLUMES

GROSS EXPOSURE

RISK MANAGEMENTPORTFOLIO

NET EXPOSURE

HOLISTIC COMMODITYRISK PROFILE

Source Oliver Wyman


IMPROVING COMPETIVENESS WITh A STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO COMMODITY VOLATILITY

A global food ingredient processor was losing sales to much smaller competitors solely because those firms were much more responsive to the highly volatile product price By analyzing the impacts of its forward sales process and market price uncertainty a new strategy was developed to migrate customers to shorter term contracts and to begin linking prices to market indices ndash which immediately improved the firmrsquos competitive positioning

STRATEGIES FOR MANAGING COMMODITY RISK

With a well-defined risk profile and an understanding of its ability to manage risk a

company can build a plan that matches its net exposure to commodities with its tolerance

for risk To manage commodity prices in the short term companies generally have three

tools at their disposal

bull Product pricingmdash identifying customer segments where the company has the ability to

raise prices or create pricing structures that mitigate risk

bull Procurement contract structuringmdashdeveloping innovative risk-sharing contracts with

suppliers

bull Financial hedgingmdashusing financial instruments for hedging to reduce overall

risk exposure

The effectiveness of these short-term strategies depends on the size of the organizationrsquos

exposure to a given commodity mdash and the commodity itself For example financial hedging

works best in commodity markets that are liquid (eg energy products such as crude oil and

natural gas or agricultural products such as wheat and corn) Meanwhile passing higher

commodity costs to customers through price increases is often ineffective in competitive

markets such as consumer products however when commodity cost increases are

significant and widespread pass-through pricing might be more viable Some companies

have taken creative approaches to raising prices For instance a number of consumer

products companies have reduced the volume of productmdashwhile keeping the same

package sizemdashto maintain margins in the face of higher commodity costs Other firms have

substituted cheaper ingredients to lower their net product costs

Over the long term volatility in commodity prices affects the behaviors of consumers

companies and their suppliers In response some companiesmdashand even countries--have

embedded commodity risk strategies into their long-term strategic plans


CONCLUSION

Large and sustained commodity price swings are reshaping whole industries This means

that commodity risk management can no longer be considered the sole responsibility of

the procurement or finance staff With rising commodity prices affecting both the short-

term earnings and long-term strategies it is imperative that C-level executives develop a

deeper understanding of how to mitigate these risks Developing a structured commodity

risk management program built around the components outlined here is crucial Given

the new realities of higher prices and more volatility in commodities organizations must

integrate commodity risk management into their day-to-day operations They also must

build it into their long-term strategies to ensure the viability of the firm itself

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

MICHAEL J DENTON

Partner Global Risk amp Trading Oliver Wyman

Michael J Denton PhD is a New York based Partner in Oliver Wymanrsquos Global Risk amp Trading practice with specialized experience in

energy agriculture and the commodities risk and trading sector As a practitioner and as a consultant he has worked extensively in market

risk modeling portfolio dynamics and risk-based decision frameworks Recent projects have focused on due diligence evaluations

competitive contracting and counterparty credit risk mitigation

ALEX WITTENBERG


Alex is the Managing Partner of Oliver Wymanrsquos Global Risk Center and has over 20 years of cross-industry experience in risk management

advisory and risk transfer solutions Alex specializes in integrating risk into strategic decision-making and financial performance designing

risk governance for Boards and Management and developing corporate risk monitoring mitigation and transfer frameworks


Copyright copy 2011 Oliver Wyman All rights reserved This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the written permission of Oliver Wyman and Oliver Wyman accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Oliver Wyman

This report is not a substitute for tailored professional advice on how a specific financial institution should execute its strategy This report is not investment advice and should not be relied on for such advice or as a substitute for consultation with professional accountants tax legal or financial advisers Oliver Wyman has made every effort to use reliable up-to-date and comprehensive information and analysis but all information is provided without warranty of any kind express or implied Oliver Wyman disclaims any responsibility to update the information or conclusions in this report Oliver Wyman accepts no liability for any loss arising from any action taken or refrained from as a result of information contained in this report or any reports or sources of information referred to herein or for any consequential special or similar damages even if advised of the possibility of such damages

This report may not be sold without the written consent of Oliver Wyman

wwwoliverwymancom

Oliver Wyman is a leading global management consulting firm that combines deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in strategy operations risk management organizational transformation and leadership development Oliver Wymanrsquos Global Risk Center is dedicated to analyzing increasingly complex risks that are reshaping industries governments and societies Its mission is to assist decision makers in addressing risks by combining Oliver Wymanrsquos rigorous analytical approach to risk management with leading thinking from professional associations non-governmental organizations and academic institutions For further information please visit wwwoliverwymancomglobalriskcenter

The Association for Financial Professionals (AFP) headquartered outside Washington DC serves a network of more than 16000 members with news economic research and data treasury certification programs networking events financial analytical tools training and public policy representation to legislators and regulators AFP is the daily resource for the finance profession

For more information please contact

MIChAEL J DENTON

Partner Global Risk amp Trading Oliver Wyman +16463648423 michaeldentonoliverwymancom

ALEx WITTENBERG

Partner Global Risk amp Trading Oliver Wyman +16463648440 alexwittenbergoliverwymancom

BRIAN T KALISh

Director Finance Practice Lead +13019616564 bkalishafponlineorg

Oliver Wyman
File Attachment
Commodity volatilitypdf

intRoduCtion

given the current and future trends in commodity prices and volatility every company must

better understand its true commodity exposure Companies can often be squeezed by

rising and volatile commodity input prices that cannot be passed along to customers in

their entirety A commodity risk management program can help not all organizations can

or should adopt the sophisticated mechanisms of a pure commodity business however

most organizations particularly those in the middle of the value chain can improve their

commodity risk analytics

exhibit 1 CompAnies ARe ChAllenged by Rising Commodity volAtility

Output prices

bull Competitive pressuresbull Limited ability to pass

through higher costs

COMPANY

bull Understand current forecasts (starting position and price curve)

bull Trace impact of price volatility to earnings

bull Align commodity risk management program strategy with corporate objectives

Commodity risk management program strategy instruments etc

Input prices

bull Increasing volatilitybull Increasing absolute pricebull Breakdown in correlations

the starting point is to understand the companyrsquos holistic commodity risk profile using

analytics and modeling tools A holistic commodity risk profile helps the organization assess

its individual and net exposure to commodity pricesmdashand the inevitable volatilitymdashacross

business and customer segments on a forward-looking basis the profile provides a common

understanding for senior management and a ldquofact-basedrdquo foundation for evaluating the

effectiveness of current risk-mitigation actions and alternative risk management strategies

With this knowledge management teams can determine if current commodity risk exposure

is within the companyrsquos risk tolerance and communicate these expectations to stakeholders

it also helps to promote risk mitigation at the portfolio level by identifying the most

important drivers of overall risk and ensuring the capture of any offsetting risks that may be

present in short this analysis will allow the company to optimize risk-return positioning

this In Practice Guide provides an overview of a stepwise approach and analytic processes

necessary to develop an organizationrsquos net commodity exposure

Copyright copy 2012 oliver Wyman 3

six steps to deteRmining Commodity exposuRe And impACts

exhibit 2 provides an overview of a six-step analytical approach to determine the impact of

commodity price risks on key financial metrics

exhibit 2 six steps to CReAte A holistiC Commodity Risk pRoFile

6 HOLISTIC COMMODITY RISK PROFILE

5 NET EXPOSURE

4 RISK MANAGEMENT

PORTFOLIO

3 GROSS EXPOSURE

2 SALES PRICING AND COMMODITY

PURCHASE VOLUMES

1 COMMODITY PRICE

PROJECTIONS

STEPS

ANALYSISUse analytic engines to simulate potential commodity price pathways (data driven)

Incorporate market context and paradigm shifts scenario analysis (judgement driven)

Calculate expected commodity exposure (ie price multiplied by volume)

Define options for managing commodity price risk

Centralize risk management options undertaken across organization

Calculate exposure after incorporating current risk management portfolio

Determine impact of commodity price projections and exposure on financial metrics (eg EBITDA cash flow debt covenants)

Determine expected commodity purchase volume based on sales expectations


step 1 Commodity pRiCe pRojeCtions

CoRe AnAlysis user-defined baseline commodity prices and volatilities for a predefined set of commodity

inputs are incorporated into a standard simulation process to generate a distribution of

potential future price paths for each commodity

outputs A distribution of terminal price values for each commodity and time horizon

beneFits bull integrates historical patterns market intelligence and fundamental analysis

bull unifies views of commodity price scenarios across the organization

bull incorporates interrelationships and correlations between commodities and other price

risk factors (eg currencies)

the first step in the analytical framework requires

management to build assumptions for commodity

prices in the future using simulation or other techniques

the management team should complement these

forecasts with an analysis of alternative price outcomes

based on ldquostress eventsrdquo to understand fully how prices

may evolve

A simple price simulation model is presented in the

attached workbook (accessed through the pushpin

icon) the inputs for these simulations are located on

the tab labeled ldquointerfacerdquo under the heading ldquoprice

and volatilityrdquo the user defines base case prices and

volatilities for each commodity and forward period

(ie 1st quarter 2nd quarter and so on) the simulated

terminal value prices or outcomes for each commodity

and time horizon are shown on the tab labeled ldquoCmdy

price projrdquo each of these values reflects possible future

outcomes for commodity prices based on three factors

mean price volatility and time

the outputs of the simulations for each commodity are

summarized on the ldquointerfacerdquo page in the ldquoCommodity

price projectionsrdquo section in each case 5th and 95th

percentile outcomes are shown along with the baseline

price scenario over the course of the time period to

provide a richer understanding of possible outcomes

versus a single static forecast not surprisingly the

uncertainty of price forecasts grows with the increasing

time horizon


ReadMe

OverviewThe workbook has been prepared as a supplement to the In Practice Guide Six Steps to Assess Commodity Risk Exposure prepared by Oliver Wyman for AFP members and available at wwwafponlineorg The purpose of this workbook is to provide a simple tool for illustration purposes only to better understand and quantify commodity risk impacts on earmings The example focuses on a corporation which utilizes key commodities including natural gas diesel fuel sugar electricity and aluminum The components of the workbook include a primary Interface worksheet as well as support worksheets which house the calculations used to generate outputs on the Interface sheet Note that all user inputs and outputs are exclusively contained in the Interface sheet - all other sheets are for reference only Cells in white in the User Inputs block represent input cells (prices volatilities and hedge designation) Any changes in outputs are generated by using the Calculate button The Interface worksheet receives inputs and provides outputs for a probabilistic earnings forecast model and illustrates the impacts of commodity prices and volatilities on the earnings profile In particular each of the outputs reflects one of the steps in the 6 step process Outputs include(1) Commodity price projections - User-defined baseline commodity prices and volatilities for a pre-defined set of commodity inputs are incorporated into a standard simulation process to generate a distribution of potential future price paths for each commodity(2) Estimated commodity volumes - A predefined set of commodity volumes reflecting commodity demand over time(3) Gross commodity exposure - User-defined baseline prices are combined with simulated price paths and volumes to generate commodity exposure - measured as the difference between the 95th percentile worst case outcome and the baseline expected outcome (4) Net commodity exposure - Gross commodity exposure is adjusted for any financial or physical hedges for each of the commodities Hedges are assumed to lock in the commodity at the baseline expected price Price correlations between commodities are taken into account(5) Holistic commodity risk profile - Commodity exposures are combined with predefined estimates for revenues and other fixed costsSGA to illustrate both positive and negative impacts on the earnings profileKey assumptionsKey assumptions in the model include the following - A GBM process is used to simulate all of the commodity price paths - Correlations are predefined and fixed resulting in a static set of shocks used in the simulation process- User defined volumes and revenues are static- User defined prices and volatiliities are used as baseline assumptions for each quarter

Interface

Interface

REF
1

Cmdy Price Proj

Invisible
Grey
Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
124418764137
1367693617635
2648580611483
786217932233
803244438443
5605736599794
124418764137
4238042982159
1367693617635
1589462370676
2648580611483
803244438443
786217932233
0
803244438443

Correlations

5
95
Mean
Sugar
01107087317
03452715728
02
00854552129
04050827214
021
00695646039
04616729635
022
0061034605
05340468686
023

Sales Pricing Volumes

Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum

Gross Exposure

REF
EPS-at-risk
1

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

REF
EBITDA
1

Simulation Net Exposure

Diesel
Electricity
Natural gas
Crude oil
Price change
EPS impact
Invisible
Grey
Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
1912572265773
1138117311849
1319658025171
11406289411
1162397994146
3734236225276
1912572265773
2596118913427
1138117311849
1276460888256
1319658025171
1162397994146
11406289411
0
1162397994146
5
95
Mean
Natural Gas
40688610903
79154680028
57310928297
32742030186
84855775584
57310928297
28887025303
92658501718
57310928297
26679947564
10281600624
57310928297

Net Exposure

5
95
Mean
Electricity
344141498094
1003995388957
622705433902
264877650618
1259146360173
622705433902
219723962528
1384358671012
6227
15528763279
1491896493046
622705433902

Fin Statement

5
95
Mean
Diesel
16508189205
29538139317
22444582473
14672697038
31955148416
22444582473
13074767002
36018057848
22444582473
11953891033
37258114813
22444582473

Price shock contuity

5
95
Mean
Aluminum
134769028369
254013105136
1878
119721652401
284279599425
187771063122
106347176349
316018108859
187771063122
95839609124
346925945325
187771063122

Graph support

Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
128
96
1
16
16
134
101
1
168
17
141
106
1
176
18
150
111
1
185
19

95ile
5ile
Earnings statement
-161353539101
1326569803377
611516334878
-421367106558
1798147036403
760774397443
-642177203637
2144399264928
918591594906
-1050874848209
2521161989213
1080153466317

Simulation of commodity prices provides a richer understanding of possible price outcomes vs a single static forecast Simulations also support analysis of possible physical andor financial hedging strategies
Disclaimer The calculation methodology is intended to support an illustrative high-level example of risk exposure determination More robust and accurate methods should be used to determine forward price evolution and subsequent risk measurement and mitigation

Correlations among commodity prices dictate the way in which commodity prices move together and are used to develop commodity price projections via simulation

Commodity volumes may be determined by reviewing sales and demand planning forecasts Volumes may be aggregated when sourced from different business divisions or regions to arrive at a corporate-wide volume estimate


Oliver Wyman
File Attachment
AFP-OW Commodity Risk Calculatorxls

step 2 sAles pRiCing And puRChAsing volumes

CoRe AnAlysis user-defined commodity volumes for the predefined set of commodities are coupled

with the distribution of price outcomes to support the determination of gross and net

exposures to commodities sales volumes and prices are incorporated into the pro forma

financial statement to understand earnings impacts from commodity exposures

outputs A predefined set of commodity volumes reflecting commodity demand over time

beneFits bull Centralizes commodity requirements across business units and geographies

bull enables testing of alternative commodity purchase requirements using price

elasticity analysis

in the second step the management team must

estimate the volume of future commodity purchases

across the enterprise the estimated volumes for inputs

are going to be directly linked to sales forecasts and

thus may be derived from product demand profiles

While the current model focuses on price uncertainty

it is important to recognize the presence of volume

uncertainty as well the static volumes are estimated

and then entered by the user on the tab labeled

ldquointerfacerdquo under the heading ldquoCommodity volumesrdquo

Assumptions for product sales volumes and prices are

also entered on the ldquointerfacerdquo tab for later use in the

holistic commodity risk profile assessment

step 3 gRoss exposuRe

CoRe AnAlysis user-defined baseline prices are combined with simulated price paths and volumes to

generate commodity exposure as measured by the difference between the 95th percentile

worst case outcome and the baseline expected outcome

outputs A firmrsquos gross commodity exposure given commodity price and volume

beneFits bull gives context of expected commodity exposure in comparison to pampl and other risks

bull shows changes over time due to either changes in business mix or changes in

commodity price expectations

in the third step the expected gross commodity

exposure is determined the 95th percentile worst case

commodity costs located on the tab labeled ldquogross

exposurerdquo are found by multiplying each commodity

volume by price gross exposure is determined by

summing the difference between the baseline cost and

the simulated 95th percentile worst case cost for each

individual commodity exposure Alternative percentiles

may be selected using the ldquoexposure risk levelrdquo input

value on the ldquointerfacerdquo tab


step 4 Risk mAnAgement poRtFolio

CoRe AnAlysis Risk management strategies currently in place are identified

outputs portfolio of existing risk management options (eg a set of commodity derivative hedges)

beneFits bull brings together and coordinates different functions of the organization (ie strategy

sales and marketing procurement treasury) and geographies

bull sets common understanding of risk management options for key commodity exposures

After determining gross commodity exposure the next

step in the process is to identify existing risk management

strategies the tab labeled ldquoRisk mgmt portfoliordquo has

a predefined list of risk management options available

which limit the management decision to financial

hedges that are assumed to lock-in the commodity at the

baseline expected price on the tab labeled ldquointerfacerdquo

under the heading ldquohedge selectionrdquo the user selects

ldquoyesrdquo or ldquonordquo for each commodity depending on whether

the firm plans to hedge that particular commodity it

is important to note that management of commodity

price risk is not limited only to financial hedging rather

it typically involves a combination of four broad levers

ndash each (or a combination thereof) may be effective as

illustrated in exhibit 3

besides recognizing current risk management

strategies this step also alerts management of other

potential risk mitigation options that may be available to

manage key commodities exposures


exhibit 3 Risk mAnAgement options

a Product Pricing (incl ldquoPass-throughrdquo)

b Procurement contracts

c Financial hedging

d Value chain integration long-term strategies

oVerView bull use market pricing

power to recover

change in input costs ndash

revenue management

bull balancesharetransfer

risk on purchases ndash

cost management

bull transfer risk to third

party through markets

structured deals

(Reinsurers also providing

capacity here)

bull up or downstream

integration eg

sourcing raw materials

retail trading

examPle strategies

bull employ cost pass-through

mechanisms (across

all or a portion of the

product portfolio)

bull Align price risk transfer

mechanisms with sales and

purchase contracts

bull include contract

mechanisms that mitigate

risk (eg price ceilings

floors price bands knock-

inknock-out clauses)

bull hedge price exposure

with swaps to set the price

or options or collars to

limit downside

bull Cross-hedge exposure

with contracts with

strong correlation to

underlying exposure

bull Acquire upstream company

to ensure supply and

diversify risk exposure

bull identify drivers that

contribute greatest

percentage to overall risk

Pros bull Raw materials costs fully

or partially passed through

to customers

bull stabilized margins and

earnings certainty

bull protection against price

moves and volatility

bull transition risk back

to supplier under

certain structures

bull protection against

feed stock price moves

and volatility

bull no impact on product

pricingsupplier contracts

bull holistic approach to cost

and margin management

bull diversification of

risk exposure

cons bull Customers may substitute

products or move to

lower priced competitor

brands in response to

product price

bull suppliers demand

premium (higher price)

for risk sharing

bull need to find

receptive suppliers

bull liquidity premium and

market non-availability

for many commodities

bull basis risk from

cross-hedging

bull Requires appropriate

capital and expertise

for joint ventures

or acquisitions

bull increased organizational

complexity


step 5 net exposuRe

CoRe AnAlysis predefined financial hedges and price correlations between commodities are applied to

gross commodity exposure to determine net commodity exposure for the enterprise

outputs A firmrsquos net commodity exposure after incorporating its current risk management portfolio

beneFits bull Accounts for natural hedges

bull provides management with an understanding of the effectiveness of the risk

management portfolio vs desired exposure

bull provides broad understanding of how commodity price risk flows through

the organization

While calculating net exposure management must also

take into account the correlation between commodity

prices price movements of one commodity may be related

to the price movement of other commodities thereby

increasing or decreasing exposure depending on the

relative strength of the relationship to account for this the

net exposure of the portfolio must be determined on the

tab labeled ldquosimulation net exposurerdquo the distribution

of terminal price values for each commodity and time

period (eg 1st quarter 2nd quarter etc) are multiplied

against volume for that same time period A distribution

of net exposures is generated and 5th and 95th percentile

outcomes for the portfolio series are selected

A companyrsquos net exposure to commodity price volatility is

shown on the tab labeled ldquonet exposurerdquo the predefined

volume levels are multiplied by the new correlated prices

to determine the 95th percentile worst case net exposure

if the company is employing a hedging strategy for a

commodity then it has no exposure for that particular

commodity since hedges are assumed to lock-in the

commodity at the baseline expected price

step 6 holistiC Commodity Risk pRoFile

CoRe AnAlysis Commodity exposures and price projections are combined with predefined estimates for

revenues and other fixed costssgA to illustrate both positive and negative impacts on the

earnings profile

outputs pro forma financial statement with predefined revenue and fixed costsgA reflecting the

impact of price variations and hedging on earnings

beneFits bull enables objective evaluation and comparison of a wide variety of risk

management strategies

bull promotes risk mitigation at a portfolio level to minimize sub-optimal risk mitigation at an

individual bu level

bull gives management a view of earnings impact from commodity prices at different levels

of probability

the process of determining net commodity exposure

ends with the creation of a holistic company-wide

risk profile ndash with the sensitivities in price projections

identified in step 1 used to explore the potential impact

on ebitdA debt covenants and other financial metrics

this impact is shown on the tab labeled lsquointerfacersquo in the

section called ldquoholistic commodity profile and impact

on earningsrdquo


ConClusion

large and sustained commodity price swings are quickly reshaping industries and the

businesses that exist within them in this environment commodity risk management must

be firmly integrated into the strategy of the company and structured under a commodity risk

management framework

executives need to recognize that their strategies may have to change to accommodate how

volatile commodity prices are redefining their competitive landscape and develop a process

to manage them across functions decisions around commodity risk management must be

based on a forward-looking view this process can include a series of tough questions about

the sustainability of business models such as

bull Will a perception of scarcity resulting from sustained volatile commodity prices impact

that commodityrsquos availability

bull Will changing commodity correlations invalidate diversification plays to hedge against

other commodities

bull Will consumers shift to cheaper private label alternatives or change their lifestyles to

avoid expenses introduced by higher commodity prices

the companies who are first to define their risk management metrics to include extreme

prices and anticipate how they can best benefit from them will have a significant

competitive advantage




michael denton Partner global risk and trading oliver wyman

+16463648440 michaeldentonoliverwymancom

michael denton is a new york-based partner in oliver Wymanrsquos global Risk amp trading practice with specialized experience in energy agriculture and the commodities risk and trading sector As a practitioner and as a consultant he has worked extensively in market risk modelling portfolio dynamics and risk-based decision frameworks

alex wittenberg Partner global risk and trading oliver wyman

+16463648440 alexwittenbergoliverwymancom

Alex Wittenberg has over 20 years of cross-industry experience in risk management advisory and risk transfer solutions Alex specializes in integrating risk into strategic decision making and financial performance designing risk governance for boards and management and developing corporate risk monitoring mitigation and transfer frameworks

brian t Kalish director Finance Practice lead

+13019616564 bkalishafponlineorg

brian t kalish is the director and Finance practice lead of the Association of Financial professionals he is responsible for the Finance practice which includes Corporate Finance Risk management Capital markets investor Relations Financial planning amp Analysis Accounting and Financial Reporting

oliveR WymAn And the AssoCiAtion FoR FinAnCiAl pRoFessionAls the FinAnCiAl insights seRies

this is part of series of papers by international management consulting firm oliver Wyman and the Association for Financial professionals that address critical issues for finance professionals oliver Wyman and AFp welcome your thoughts on the ideas presented in this paper if you would like to provide feedback or be alerted when we schedule events or other activities for corporate finance professionals please contact one of the individuals listed below

oliver Wyman is an international management consulting firm that combines deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in strategy operations risk management organizational transformation and leadership development

the Association for Financial professionals (AFp) headquartered outside Washington dC serves a network of more than 16000 members with news economic research and data treasury certification programs networking events financial analytical tools training and public policy representation to legislators and regulators AFp is the daily resource for the finance profession

wwwoliverwymancom

Copyright copy oliver Wyman All rights reserved

AuthoRs




Gross Exposure graph support (stacked graph and waterfall)

Graph data 2012 Gross Exposure Sugar Natural gas Electricity Diesel Aluminum Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total

Invisible 5606 4238 1589 803 00

Grey 1244 1368 2649 786 803

Sugar 1244 186 261 341 456 1244

Natural gas 1368 210 278 375 505 1368

Electricity 2649 381 636 762 869 2649

Diesel 786 113 160 239 274 786

Aluminum 803 106 164 231 302 803

Commodities volume graph support

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sugar 12800 13400 14100 15000

Natural gas 960 1010 1060 1110

Electricity 100 100 100 100

Diesel 1600 1680 1760 1850

Aluminum 160 170 180 190

Net exposure graph support


Invisible 3734 2596 1276 1162 00

Grey 1913 1138 1320 114 1162

Sugar 1913 207 404 530 771 1913

Natural gas 1138 168 250 348 372 1138

Electricity 1320 221 266 331 502 1320

Diesel 114 26 39 12 38 114

Aluminum 1162 151 223 340 448 1162

Financial statement graph support

Cost (95)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total

Simulated commodity costs

Sugar 463 686 840 1116 463 686 840 1116 3105

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500 463 686 840 1116 3105 Unhedged

Price 036 051 060 074

Natural gas 718 829 956 1008 718 829 956 1008 3511

Volume 96 101 106 111 718 829 956 1008 3511 Unhedged

Price 75 82 90 91

Electricity 844 888 953 1125 844 888 953 1125 3810

Volume 10 10 10 10 844 888 953 1125 3810 Unhedged

Price 844 888 953 1125

Diesel 385 416 407 453 385 416 407 453 1660

Volume 160 168 176 185 385 416 407 453 1660 Unhedged

Price 24 25 23 24

Aluminum 451 543 678 805 451 543 678 805 2477

Volume 16 17 18 19 451 543 678 805 2476841735006 Unhedged

Price 282 319 377 424

Total 2861 3361 3834 4507 2861 3361 3834 4507 14564

2861 3361 3834 4507 14563772697504 Unhedged

Cost (5)



Sugar 179 142 141 119 179 142 141 119 581


Price 014 011 010 008

Natural gas 347 283 251 241 347 283 251 241 1123

Volume 96 101 106 111 347 283 251 241 1123 Unhedged

Price 36 28 24 22

Electricity 332 223 176 138 332 223 176 138 868

Volume 10 10 10 10 332 223 176 138 868 Unhedged

Price 332 223 176 138

Diesel 275 264 244 231 275 264 244 231 1015

Volume 160 168 176 185 275 264 244 231 1015 Unhedged

Price 17 16 14 12

Aluminum 241 230 236 205 241 230 236 205 911

Volume 16 17 18 19 241 230 236 205 911127595797 Unhedged

Price 150 135 131 108

Total 1373 1142 1048 935 1373 1142 1048 935 4498

95ile 5ile

Sales 480 504 529 556 480 504 529 556

Fixed Costs 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

Variable Costs 286 336 383 451 137 114 105 93

General amp Admin Exp 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

EBITDA (16) (42) (64) (105) 133 180 214 252

Title To quickly check to make sure prices are still the same filter the prices on the tab proj 3 to go in order 1 to 100 and this should match

[Optional comments]

no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes































































yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes



































Earnings statement

all figures in millions (except prices) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012

Sales 48000 50400 52920 55560 206880

Volume 320000 336000 352800 370400 1379200

Price ($) 015 015 015 015

000

Cost of Goods Sold 32885 33792 34734 35758 137170

Fixed Costs 12000 12000 12000 12000 48000

Sugar ($lbs) 2560 2814 3102 3450 11926

Volume (lbs) 12800 13400 14100 15000

Price 020 021 022 023

000

Natural gas ($Kcf) - Henry Hub 5502 5788 6075 6362 23727

Volume 960 1010 1060 1110

Price 573 573 573 573

000

Electricity ($MWh) - NY ISO 6227 6227 6227 6227 24908

Volume 100 100 100 100

Price 6227 6227 6227 6227

000

Diesel ($gal) - NY Harbour 3591 3771 3950 4152 15464

Volume 1600 1680 1760 1850

Price 224 224 224 224

000

Aluminum 3005 3192 3380 3568 13144

Volume 160 170 180 190

Price 1878 1878 1878 1878

Variable Costs 20885 21792 22734 23758 89170

000

General amp Admin Exp 9000 9000 9000 9000 36000

000

EBITDA 6115 7608 9186 10802 33710

Impact of hedging

all figures in millions (except prices)

Futures Used

Sugar No

Natural gas No

Electricity No

Diesel No

Aluminum No

Net exposure (95)



Sugar 463 686 840 1116 207 404 530 771 1913

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500

Price 036 051 060 074

00 00 00 00 00

Natural gas 718 829 956 1008 168 250 348 372 1138

Volume 96 101 106 111

Price 75 82 90 91

00 00 00 00 00

Electricity 844 888 953 1125 221 266 331 502 1320

Volume 10 10 10 10

Price 844 888 953 1125

00 00 00 00 00

Diesel 385 416 407 453 26 39 12 38 114

Volume 160 168 176 185

Price 24 25 23 24

00 00 00 00 00

Aluminum 451 543 678 805 151 223 340 448 1162

Volume 16 17 18 19

Price 282 319 377 424

Total 2861 3361 3834 4507 773 1182 1561 2131 5647

Correlated Price Simulations

Commodity prices are simulated through geometric brownian motion and utilize correlated random shocks based on an input correlation matrix

Sugar Natural gas Electricity Diesel Aluminum Total Net Exposure

Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full-Year

Mean 020 021 022 023 573 573 573 573 6227 6227 6227 6227 224 224 224 224 1878 1878 1878 1878

Volatility 070 070 070 070 048 048 048 048 069 069 069 069 037 037 037 037 032 032 032 032

Time 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100

Volume 12800 13400 14100 15000 960 1010 1060 1110 100 100 100 100 1600 1680 1760 1850 160 170 180 190

Simulated

5 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081 48715

95 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238 145722

Std Dev 007 010 012 016 135 186 238 270 2100 3074 3713 4521 044 062 077 091 339 493 596 707

Mean

Net Exposure Net Portfolio Exposure

32380 47 008 005 004 004 308 247 192 177 2637 1898 1408 972 133 105 086 075 1126 925 815 739 32380

33948 42 012 010 008 006 296 216 169 151 2310 1435 986 771 150 121 109 090 1253 1054 940 789 33948

39948 55 012 009 008 006 353 282 228 208 3268 2446 1989 1481 157 129 112 111 1155 968 849 685 39948

43542 60 013 012 010 009 370 298 275 241 3023 2238 1947 1441 142 117 100 085 1524 1373 1335 1103 43542

44977 68 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081 44977

48911 50 016 014 012 010 409 346 296 273 3448 2728 2433 1680 165 158 139 134 1336 1151 989 956 48911

49824 97 011 009 007 006 416 329 290 268 3611 2898 2629 1945 186 179 158 148 1560 1397 1335 1168 49824

52614 9 017 017 016 015 434 352 335 309 3687 2659 2208 1557 167 147 126 120 1507 1377 1248 1173 52614

54247 89 017 015 016 016 439 390 356 319 4202 3278 2938 2741 165 140 135 115 1302 1087 949 834 54247

54467 29 011 008 006 006 422 348 290 276 4695 3992 3213 2735 174 165 142 131 1689 1645 1658 1518 54467

56081 37 018 016 015 015 431 389 338 303 4107 3434 3157 2520 187 171 151 142 1348 1200 1067 959 56081

56950 66 016 015 015 013 456 401 376 341 4018 3011 2673 2147 167 150 131 133 1735 1631 1514 1358 56950

58740 44 016 014 014 014 417 358 318 288 4373 3420 2897 2543 179 161 145 128 1837 1849 1811 1783 58740

59233 63 013 011 010 008 463 424 354 346 3838 3269 2540 2223 192 178 165 159 1915 1908 1952 1890 59233

60239 11 011 008 006 005 449 408 354 334 4758 3935 3524 3236 195 191 176 153 1871 1777 1795 1751 60239

60316 3 010 008 007 006 446 413 362 318 4810 4104 3705 3050 217 227 218 212 1520 1456 1268 1213 60316

61664 56 016 014 013 014 465 409 371 337 4004 3018 2627 2306 213 212 214 195 1723 1644 1539 1573 61664

65269 4 012 010 009 008 499 466 440 399 4679 4289 4175 3630 227 222 202 207 1564 1407 1328 1321 65269

65273 92 019 019 017 020 468 452 412 386 4681 3784 3476 3030 202 189 181 173 1550 1325 1272 1204 65273

65764 69 014 014 013 012 469 456 424 396 4095 3235 2716 2469 232 218 235 215 1846 1783 1769 1759 65764

65876 93 009 007 005 004 487 414 388 392 5470 4414 3990 3422 216 208 204 197 1936 1918 2013 2008 65876

66078 87 017 017 017 017 459 442 370 359 4358 3610 2995 2507 211 198 192 184 1850 1834 1860 1886 66078

66116 74 012 010 009 007 506 470 436 431 5243 4758 4687 3999 194 178 162 148 1729 1608 1574 1632 66116

66562 28 016 013 012 012 466 437 425 368 4837 4339 3786 3072 208 203 201 172 1790 1811 1739 1686 66562

66781 5 014 012 014 010 479 493 416 361 5031 4209 3839 3683 225 222 228 236 1494 1374 1259 1205 66781

68244 27 015 014 012 013 505 465 422 433 6111 5940 5338 4822 170 152 131 134 1540 1373 1368 1291 68244

69290 94 012 011 009 008 525 506 477 455 5461 5197 4182 3541 207 214 183 193 1749 1664 1613 1559 69290

69701 32 029 030 034 038 498 443 395 349 4147 3298 2974 2512 194 179 169 151 1517 1360 1312 1209 69701

70796 10 029 033 037 040 417 389 337 296 4868 4408 3809 3401 181 167 143 145 1538 1394 1279 1158 70796

71222 62 013 011 011 009 569 530 507 493 5343 4890 4534 4122 232 225 235 244 1432 1283 1141 991 71222

71261 45 024 026 026 026 468 423 393 370 4820 3878 3436 2825 208 203 188 169 1724 1672 1721 1691 71261

72702 91 011 010 008 007 510 496 467 432 5667 5025 4150 4024 221 204 200 193 2037 2135 2235 2228 72702

73734 20 012 009 008 008 545 525 532 483 4964 4978 4418 3734 252 246 240 242 1773 1793 1792 1550 73734

73801 52 014 013 011 011 544 544 491 505 6007 5243 4823 4922 188 177 166 155 1851 1899 1771 1806 73801

74108 88 015 015 012 012 521 472 428 410 5694 5653 4597 4234 237 251 240 237 1725 1626 1572 1414 74108

74317 1 013 012 011 009 497 415 414 379 5566 5460 4956 4077 238 249 243 227 2014 2054 1994 2024 74317

74660 22 022 024 022 024 539 489 513 474 5323 4839 4078 3974 207 195 204 187 1525 1374 1241 1160 74660

74808 31 016 014 013 013 551 524 504 420 5722 4948 4442 4039 196 175 162 159 2100 2133 2163 2368 74808

74998 82 025 028 027 031 459 404 360 341 4251 3653 3090 2716 218 209 213 217 2113 2139 2220 2171 74998

75350 8 015 015 012 011 534 484 458 411 5691 5348 5296 5469 186 179 154 161 2101 2134 2257 2146 75350

75850 85 019 019 019 018 568 505 491 479 6077 5656 5435 5757 203 183 174 162 1503 1310 1234 1158 75850

76270 2 021 018 018 018 538 515 500 489 5231 5090 4596 4623 223 220 231 203 1613 1450 1451 1409 76270

78037 30 017 016 015 014 548 513 485 504 6066 6050 5382 5314 221 227 218 204 1640 1495 1485 1375 78037

78226 23 016 015 014 011 529 506 495 414 5761 6103 5365 4695 208 203 199 201 2090 2095 2089 2103 78226

81022 96 016 016 014 014 534 539 504 468 6087 5637 6034 5187 234 241 239 242 1821 1777 1749 1662 81022

82068 99 021 021 022 021 546 510 479 489 5851 5276 5787 4832 232 222 218 237 1745 1706 1664 1748 82068

82643 35 012 010 009 008 551 532 565 488 6985 7363 6872 6115 212 219 201 204 1956 2033 1866 1858 82643

87060 14 016 014 012 011 603 590 570 649 6301 6010 5819 5771 221 210 220 213 2139 2281 2226 2447 87060

87614 83 032 040 045 058 565 534 572 519 5492 5063 4457 4135 200 189 189 176 1395 1244 1164 1068 87614

89614 46 019 020 020 019 576 637 610 610 6533 6598 6666 6786 204 207 181 181 1946 1988 2078 1928 89614

90297 100 016 014 012 011 571 562 594 523 6238 6149 6375 6392 261 271 285 290 2084 2148 2302 2267 90297

91492 49 015 015 013 014 588 581 590 582 7612 9229 8377 8573 202 190 182 178 1837 1833 1815 1762 91492

92285 79 028 030 037 038 563 538 538 539 6069 6428 5732 5382 207 198 178 169 1997 2051 2146 2150 92285

92517 80 021 020 024 023 624 649 634 649 5664 5628 4862 4865 249 276 277 279 1991 1978 2042 2079 92517

92520 58 025 029 028 032 611 702 664 720 5773 6288 5346 5787 224 215 201 208 1695 1604 1501 1466 92520

93297 38 025 028 030 029 581 611 525 547 5830 4962 4681 4374 253 261 269 270 2207 2307 2331 2511 93297

93492 84 020 018 018 018 624 658 693 620 6792 7087 6486 6822 229 248 240 235 1872 1857 1800 1782 93492

94010 72 019 016 017 016 645 637 681 608 6432 6267 6364 5536 276 315 309 338 1695 1730 1689 1702 94010

95355 25 022 022 023 024 617 614 641 661 7381 7741 7734 7355 201 183 181 167 1952 1996 2017 1982 95355

95981 51 022 021 024 022 631 654 628 656 6512 6238 6863 5733 235 237 228 245 2106 2188 2174 2310 95981

96590 70 019 020 019 018 640 674 670 672 6785 6304 6419 6186 250 247 247 241 2062 2175 2421 2430 96590

96659 59 015 015 013 011 641 694 682 672 6932 7099 7472 6962 253 283 294 282 1955 1988 1919 1987 96659

98984 39 022 024 024 027 682 674 703 690 6289 6707 6188 5735 233 249 244 250 2093 2091 2235 2335 98984

99473 64 014 013 011 010 665 685 674 711 7254 7577 8242 7389 276 284 312 343 1902 1877 1784 1881 99473

100438 18 021 024 021 021 643 705 699 679 7545 8706 7888 7960 234 236 232 234 1795 1682 1688 1643 100438

104925 26 030 040 036 047 638 646 611 644 7631 8381 7592 8300 200 186 176 173 1881 1847 1746 1805 104925

106683 71 020 021 023 022 667 677 707 752 8146 8325 8879 8341 237 241 236 242 2093 2275 2232 2274 106683

107046 48 031 036 038 043 681 774 787 860 5782 6008 6054 5691 259 262 265 272 1842 1834 1805 1657 107046

108929 75 028 030 034 039 705 726 835 795 6408 6759 6094 5739 270 286 301 326 1937 1954 1896 1922 108929

109789 17 016 015 014 013 706 792 871 828 9457 9496 9557 11733 234 246 232 254 1799 1710 1649 1544 109789

109940 98 026 031 032 038 703 764 801 853 7465 7940 7971 6489 264 280 283 303 1679 1496 1411 1393 109940

111963 61 022 024 022 025 715 776 784 849 7281 8061 8721 8562 266 276 283 281 2104 2187 2130 2121 111963

113140 41 025 030 027 031 709 722 813 858 8066 8128 9075 8288 271 290 305 319 1724 1582 1602 1558 113140

114475 15 025 029 032 034 680 714 712 755 8168 8424 9094 8582 269 290 309 299 1998 1996 1966 1927 114475

115420 76 023 024 021 021 682 710 721 788 7888 7858 8900 8340 300 338 360 392 2170 2212 2295 2479 115420

115470 12 020 020 022 023 665 668 712 637 9215 11363 13842 14327 222 215 215 184 1873 1818 1809 1839 115470

115543 43 018 017 016 014 708 740 776 888 8939 10641 10054 10632 273 289 295 316 1937 1932 1994 1938 115543

115599 16 023 026 023 027 735 805 871 836 7317 8319 8599 9260 256 267 265 313 2153 2255 2268 2233 115599

115628 95 014 012 011 010 653 681 623 720 8745 9344 10628 11302 292 316 329 347 2366 2750 2806 3056 115628

115695 13 021 021 020 023 783 842 842 907 8811 9563 8686 9220 246 234 246 254 2124 2197 2307 2336 115695

116747 78 025 025 024 031 675 707 764 751 8609 9940 9632 11128 260 266 267 275 2037 2116 2033 2058 116747

118794 33 023 024 027 029 678 695 724 732 7868 8230 8443 8449 255 275 265 294 2745 3142 3492 3808 118794

120798 67 023 023 025 028 701 829 848 816 8495 9001 9754 9979 295 315 344 372 1881 1975 1968 1960 120798

122134 7 021 024 023 025 704 782 813 827 9526 10396 11149 12151 277 296 312 350 1785 1741 1742 1729 122134

123516 73 022 024 026 026 738 788 831 860 8206 8564 9419 8704 321 362 377 440 2082 2305 2281 2263 123516

125606 90 029 035 042 044 638 663 758 822 8360 9427 9758 9092 272 294 308 317 2294 2392 2612 2639 125606

126928 54 036 045 051 053 751 805 954 911 7050 7643 7510 7316 268 283 290 317 2151 2212 2363 2417 126928

128846 77 037 043 046 053 728 846 879 845 8603 8376 9776 10368 237 249 263 261 1994 2163 2185 2264 128846

128878 6 025 028 028 035 774 786 849 960 8847 8937 10590 13150 263 285 280 313 2148 2332 2371 2513 128878

130807 34 035 040 049 054 782 843 925 979 7755 7821 8166 8865 288 307 344 334 1997 2059 2095 2239 130807

140398 19 017 016 016 015 791 795 881 1053 10420 12831 14842 14880 276 294 302 301 2645 3061 3158 3517 140398

142414 81 036 049 058 075 682 763 821 821 8688 10002 9662 11595 256 263 267 272 2539 2827 3224 3603 142414

143917 53 017 016 016 014 796 919 1029 1080 10035 12687 12587 16905 290 319 368 353 2432 2804 2919 3292 143917

145005 65 026 029 035 036 791 844 898 1008 9727 10940 12787 13483 301 335 351 371 2458 2857 3022 3126 145005

145638 36 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238 145638

147330 40 025 030 035 033 768 823 834 969 10134 12586 13876 15668 292 311 371 392 2352 2714 2751 2883 147330

149955 86 025 028 029 031 822 902 905 1027 9657 11730 12287 13947 371 443 494 567 2146 2219 2432 2437 149955

167385 24 025 028 027 033 889 1039 1216 1304 11617 15334 16748 19296 285 288 321 318 2559 2842 3200 3467 167385

178469 57 035 044 057 076 868 941 1085 1127 10866 14632 17431 20089 263 292 289 318 2723 3330 3618 3836 178469

195830 21 026 028 031 033 980 1173 1531 1623 12934 17045 20568 25587 356 432 504 555 2168 2201 2225 2430 195830

Risk management portfolio

Futures Description

Sugar Futures or OTC contracts may be used to lock in or fix commodity prices for defined periods of time

Natural gas Futures or OTC contracts may be used to lock in or fix commodity prices for defined periods of time

Electricity Futures or OTC contracts may be used to lock in or fix commodity prices for defined periods of time

Diesel Futures or OTC contracts may be used to lock in or fix commodity prices for defined periods of time

Aluminum Futures or OTC contracts may be used to lock in or fix commodity prices for defined periods of time

Gross exposure calculations

Gross Exposure

all figures in millions (except prices) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total


Sugar 442 543 651 801 186 261 341 456 1244

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500

Price 035 041 046 053

00 00 00 00 00

Natural gas 760 857 982 1141 210 278 375 505 1368

Volume (MMBTU) 96 101 106 111

Price 792 849 927 1028

00 00 00 00 00

Electricity 1004 1259 1384 1492 381 636 762 869 2649

Volume (MWh) 10 10 10 10

Price 1004 1259 1384 1492

00 00 00 00 00

Diesel 473 537 634 689 113 160 239 274 786

Volume (gal) 160 168 176 185

Price 295 320 360 373

00 00 00 00 00

Aluminum 406 483 569 659 106 164 231 302 803

Volume (tons) 16 17 18 19

Price 2540 2843 3160 3469

Total 3085 3679 4220 4783 996 1500 1947 2407 6850

Sales Pricing and Volumes


Sales 48000 50400 52920 55560 206880

Volume 320000 336000 352800 370400 1379200

Price ($) 015 015 015 015 016

000

Cost of Commodity Goods Sold 32885 33792 34734 35758 137170

Fixed Costs 12000 12000 12000 12000 48000

Sugar ($) 2560 2814 3102 3450 11926

Volume (lb) 12800 13400 14100 15000

($lb) 020 021 022 023

000

Natural gas ($) 5502 5788 6075 6362 23727

Volume (MMBTU) 960 1010 1060 1110

Price ($MMBTU) 573 573 573 573

000

Electricity ($) 6227 6227 6227 6227 24908

Volume 100 100 100 100

Price 6227 6227 6227 6227

000

Diesel ($l) 3591 3771 3950 4152 15464

Volume 1600 1680 1760 1850

Price 224 224 224 224

000

Aluminum ($) 3005 3192 3380 3568 13144

Volume 160 170 180 190

Price 1878 1878 1878 1878

Variable Costs 20885 21792 22734 23758 89170

Correlations

Correlated random shocks generated from correlation matrix

Correlations Sugar Natural gas Electricity Diesel Aluminum

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sugar Q1 100 099 099 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q2 099 100 099 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q3 099 099 100 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q4 099 099 099 100 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Nat Gas Q1 065 065 065 065 100 099 099 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q2 065 065 065 065 099 100 099 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q3 065 065 065 065 099 099 100 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q4 065 065 065 065 099 099 099 100 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Electricity Q1 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 100 099 099 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q2 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 100 099 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q3 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 099 100 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q4 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 099 099 100 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Diesel Q1 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 100 099 099 099 066 066 066 066

Q2 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 100 099 099 066 066 066 066

Q3 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 099 100 099 066 066 066 066

Q4 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 099 099 100 066 066 066 066

Aluminum Q1 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 100 099 099 099

Q2 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 100 099 099

Q3 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 099 100 099

Q4 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 099 099 100

Column C C C C G G G G - 0 K K K - 0 O O O S S S S

Indirect C_Prices - 0 - 0

Correlated Sugar Natural gas Electricity Diesel Aluminum

N(01) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

1 (108) (092) (082) (107) (047) (078) (057) (062) (015) (003) (008) (027) 041 052 041 022 052 051 036 039

2 031 (007) (006) (003) (015) (014) (012) (009) (033) (017) (021) (009) 005 005 026 (009) (087) (103) (079) (074)

3 (176) (167) (159) (155) (092) (079) (090) (098) (058) (061) (057) (069) (009) 018 007 002 (124) (101) (128) (121)

4 (134) (119) (112) (122) (046) (044) (043) (052) (066) (052) (037) (044) 016 009 (016) (003) (106) (116) (111) (094)

5 (075) (080) (049) (077) (063) (028) (057) (072) (045) (056) (051) (042) 011 010 021 032 (135) (127) (130) (123)

6 082 082 072 095 137 110 115 132 119 098 119 143 095 104 085 108 092 107 098 107

7 035 050 038 044 098 108 105 100 140 129 127 131 123 119 119 139 (024) (022) (013) (010)

8 (056) (044) (076) (066) (017) (033) (033) (045) (009) (007) 003 016 (091) (074) (102) (071) 078 068 080 058

9 (025) (015) (023) (027) (104) (127) (109) (105) (135) (150) (144) (166) (149) (148) (165) (151) (130) (126) (134) (131)

10 126 116 115 112 (120) (097) (107) (114) (054) (046) (052) (053) (107) (099) (125) (099) (117) (120) (125) (135)

11 (166) (182) (173) (174) (090) (083) (095) (089) (061) (070) (065) (060) (066) (048) (061) (084) 006 (013) (002) (006)

12 014 014 034 034 074 062 073 046 131 148 164 155 003 (003) 002 (035) 006 (003) 000 010

13 034 028 011 035 142 130 113 120 118 112 086 091 060 030 044 052 085 081 088 084

14 (048) (059) (063) (068) 033 026 020 050 021 017 019 023 001 (012) 009 005 089 097 075 099

15 079 091 090 091 083 082 073 081 096 086 093 081 107 112 115 096 047 038 030 024

16 058 071 034 059 116 117 122 103 064 084 084 092 081 080 068 108 093 092 082 070

17 (046) (041) (043) (048) 099 112 121 101 138 111 102 126 031 049 027 052 (019) (030) (033) (045)

18 030 052 025 024 060 078 068 059 073 093 069 070 031 033 026 030 (020) (037) (024) (026)

19 (034) (031) (025) (026) 146 114 124 151 166 173 175 161 121 116 108 097 222 227 201 212

20 (119) (138) (136) (114) (009) (009) 003 (012) (048) (021) (028) (040) 073 048 037 039 (028) (009) (003) (044)

21 092 081 085 085 236 228 257 241 229 231 230 239 259 264 269 263 098 082 075 097

22 047 052 031 042 (014) (030) (006) (016) (028) (027) (041) (031) (035) (040) (014) (031) (122) (127) (135) (134)

23 (043) (047) (046) (069) (021) (019) (014) (044) (005) 020 005 (006) (032) (025) (021) (012) 075 060 052 051

24 082 083 064 089 195 192 202 195 198 209 195 198 138 109 128 113 201 194 206 208

25 039 030 035 039 042 037 048 054 067 069 066 059 (050) (065) (051) (061) 032 038 040 033

26 130 157 113 138 057 052 036 048 076 085 063 076 (053) (058) (061) (052) 009 004 (012) 004

27 (063) (063) (067) (046) (041) (045) (053) (035) 012 015 004 (003) (140) (136) (152) (120) (116) (127) (101) (101)

28 (051) (067) (068) (058) (075) (063) (051) (068) (056) (050) (053) (068) (031) (025) (019) (053) (022) (005) (014) (018)

29 (165) (163) (176) (155) (115) (130) (143) (128) (065) (067) (081) (085) (128) (105) (126) (127) (058) (047) (031) (050)

30 (029) (031) (029) (032) (007) (016) (019) (003) 010 018 005 012 001 017 007 (007) (077) (089) (071) (081)

31 (040) (055) (058) (043) (004) (009) (010) (041) (007) (023) (027) (028) (065) (082) (086) (075) 078 068 065 089

32 123 098 102 105 (047) (059) (069) (079) (101) (106) (094) (097) (069) (074) (072) (089) (125) (131) (115) (122)

33 057 052 066 070 082 074 077 075 085 082 081 079 079 090 068 091 245 239 238 237

34 174 156 162 156 142 131 136 135 081 071 075 086 143 133 150 126 046 052 053 071

35 (121) (127) (111) (122) (004) (005) 018 (009) 051 059 046 032 (021) 003 (018) (008) 034 046 012 013

36 187 205 195 203 123 123 130 120 105 097 101 120 046 051 025 042 262 246 265 270

37 (019) (031) (029) (029) (106) (097) (106) (108) (103) (098) (084) (097) (090) (092) (107) (106) (199) (187) (190) (194)

38 080 080 081 069 018 036 (001) 014 (002) (022) (018) (017) 074 071 073 069 109 102 092 107

39 040 053 044 058 085 065 070 063 020 040 029 023 029 053 042 047 076 059 077 084

40 085 100 108 089 134 123 111 133 158 169 164 168 151 138 173 169 149 174 152 150

41 082 097 061 076 101 085 105 108 092 079 093 076 111 111 112 113 (045) (064) (044) (042)

42 (123) (134) (135) (147) (263) (271) (274) (254) (270) (276) (279) (268) (210) (223) (208) (227) (245) (244) (236) (255)

43 (016) (018) (018) (034) 100 092 094 115 122 134 110 112 115 109 102 111 027 024 035 026

44 (048) (052) (042) (035) (120) (122) (121) (119) (085) (098) (098) (095) (112) (115) (120) (132) (006) 005 001 (000)

45 069 067 059 054 (073) (073) (070) (067) (057) (073) (070) (080) (033) (026) (039) (057) (045) (040) (018) (017)

46 005 011 013 005 014 048 036 037 031 036 041 047 (043) (018) (052) (039) 030 037 050 024

47 (235) (256) (232) (222) (247) (231) (242) (221) (232) (219) (219) (235) (272) (277) (282) (278) (312) (301) (287) (275)

48 143 131 119 126 084 106 097 108 (004) 017 025 021 087 072 067 071 (004) 001 (000) (023)

49 (063) (045) (054) (035) 023 021 028 027 075 105 080 081 (048) (052) (049) (045) (006) 001 002 (004)

50 (055) (060) (066) (079) (129) (132) (138) (130) (154) (145) (127) (155) (157) (121) (133) (121) (205) (205) (217) (195)

51 039 028 044 031 052 056 043 052 030 025 046 023 035 034 022 042 079 079 067 081

52 (087) (075) (088) (067) (009) 002 (016) (002) 007 (011) (013) 000 (087) (077) (079) (081) (001) 016 (007) 004

53 (032) (024) (025) (035) 149 156 161 156 156 170 148 179 148 147 170 141 170 188 173 191

54 186 179 168 155 124 117 143 121 053 066 061 058 106 101 095 112 093 084 097 095

55 (135) (144) (137) (150) (190) (192) (201) (188) (170) (167) (161) (174) (185) (199) (201) (171) (296) (281) (273) (299)

56 (052) (051) (058) (040) (075) (083) (084) (087) (111) (124) (115) (109) (019) (009) 002 (019) (046) (047) (058) (039)

57 173 174 186 206 185 163 174 165 179 199 202 204 095 113 095 113 240 264 251 239

58 076 087 072 084 039 077 056 072 (005) 026 004 024 008 (004) (018) (002) (056) (058) (067) (061)

59 (072) (037) (056) (072) 059 073 063 057 048 051 060 051 074 102 100 080 033 037 022 034

60 (109) (093) (104) (106) (170) (175) (156) (156) (192) (185) (165) (178) (238) (234) (237) (243) (122) (127) (109) (150)

61 044 048 032 047 104 106 096 106 063 077 086 081 102 092 089 080 079 079 059 054

62 (105) (101) (086) (094) 009 (006) (009) (007) (027) (025) (023) (025) 026 015 030 041 (161) (157) (166) (184)

63 (095) (103) (105) (122) (077) (072) (095) (081) (123) (108) (120) (115) (077) (075) (081) (075) 020 018 028 018

64 (079) (070) (083) (086) 074 070 060 069 062 065 077 059 121 103 119 133 016 011 (005) 017

65 096 093 106 097 146 131 129 142 147 140 150 146 169 166 156 154 176 197 186 175

66 (049) (046) (037) (042) (084) (088) (081) (084) (110) (125) (112) (120) (149) (140) (151) (124) (042) (051) (064) (085)

67 061 045 052 064 096 126 115 098 107 100 105 103 157 142 150 155 009 034 031 029

68 (085) (114) (100) (117) (180) (194) (192) (178) (165) (186) (182) (184) (135) (123) (134) (140) (131) (134) (116) (157)

69 (084) (062) (057) (060) (071) (050) (052) (053) (104) (110) (109) (100) 028 002 031 008 (003) (012) (008) (004)

70 (002) 011 007 002 058 065 058 057 042 027 035 034 069 050 045 037 066 076 106 097

71 023 024 035 027 075 066 071 081 095 084 089 077 039 040 032 039 076 096 076 076

72 (005) (026) (008) (013) 061 048 062 036 027 026 034 017 121 143 116 129 (056) (025) (024) (015)

73 048 050 056 053 118 111 110 109 097 090 099 083 203 196 178 200 072 102 084 074

74 (119) (122) (110) (137) (040) (041) (045) (036) (033) (031) (018) (030) (071) (076) (086) (093) (044) (057) (050) (028)

75 114 095 103 110 098 087 111 092 026 041 026 023 109 106 108 120 027 029 017 023

76 057 048 022 022 085 080 076 090 086 072 090 077 167 169 163 169 098 084 086 103

77 190 171 152 155 112 132 124 105 111 085 105 108 040 053 065 059 046 074 069 075

78 077 059 048 077 080 079 090 080 111 120 103 119 089 077 070 073 059 064 042 045

79 118 100 116 107 005 (002) 006 011 010 031 016 013 (033) (034) (056) (059) 046 050 062 058

80 033 017 045 032 047 053 045 050 (010) 004 (012) (001) 066 093 082 077 045 034 044 048

81 182 197 190 205 085 101 107 099 114 122 103 125 081 073 071 071 197 192 209 220

82 076 081 062 078 (080) (086) (091) (084) (093) (085) (087) (086) (006) (014) (000) 009 082 069 074 061

83 156 153 147 166 006 (004) 020 003 (019) (018) (026) (025) (052) (052) (037) (048) (178) (171) (159) (160)

84 017 (010) (000) 003 048 058 066 040 042 051 037 048 020 052 037 030 006 006 (001) (000)

85 006 007 006 (000) 009 (020) (017) (013) 010 005 007 023 (045) (064) (063) (069) (131) (148) (138) (135)

86 078 080 076 077 162 150 131 145 144 154 144 151 281 273 262 269 091 085 107 097

87 (034) (019) (010) (011) (080) (060) (085) (074) (086) (087) (093) (097) (024) (034) (033) (036) (001) 001 010 017

88 (070) (046) (064) (058) (028) (040) (049) (046) (009) 005 (021) (021) 038 056 036 033 (045) (052) (050) (073)

89 (031) (037) (025) (013) (099) (097) (094) (098) (097) (107) (096) (084) (158) (167) (144) (163) (221) (230) (232) (238)

90 123 130 136 128 057 060 088 099 103 109 105 089 112 116 115 112 133 118 133 122

91 (146) (126) (133) (132) (037) (026) (029) (035) (010) (020) (038) (029) 000 (024) (020) (022) 059 068 077 069

92 (001) 007 (009) 018 (073) (053) (058) (058) (065) (078) (068) (070) (048) (052) (051) (052) (112) (143) (127) (123)

93 (226) (202) (225) (216) (056) (079) (073) (055) (020) (046) (045) (052) (011) (017) (014) (016) 027 021 039 037

94 (131) (113) (112) (115) (025) (019) (023) (024) (021) (013) (037) (047) (034) (005) (048) (023) (037) (042) (041) (042)

95 (087) (084) (091) (090) 066 068 041 072 116 108 119 121 152 144 136 136 152 180 159 168

96 (042) (035) (040) (038) (018) (001) (010) (018) 011 004 025 008 031 040 035 039 (011) (013) (012) (022)

97 (151) (157) (167) (162) (122) (147) (143) (134) (141) (132) (114) (134) (093) (074) (093) (093) (108) (119) (109) (132)

98 096 101 091 109 097 102 101 107 070 074 071 040 097 098 089 099 (062) (089) (089) (077)

99 033 028 029 021 (008) (017) (022) (009) (001) (010) 018 (002) 027 008 007 033 (038) (031) (030) (006)

100 (055) (051) (066) (067) 011 011 029 005 018 022 034 038 091 085 091 088 073 071 087 075

Price Simulations


Sugar Natural gas Electricity Diesel Aluminum

Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mean 020 021 022 023 573 573 573 573 6227 6227 6227 6227 224 224 224 224 1878 1878 1878 1878

Volatility 070 070 070 070 048 048 048 048 069 069 069 069 037 037 037 037 032 032 032 032

Time 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100

Simulated

5 011 009 007 006 407 327 289 267 3441 2649 2197 1553 165 147 131 120 1348 1197 1063 958

95 035 041 046 053 792 849 927 1028 10040 12591 13844 14919 295 320 360 373 2540 2843 3160 3469

Std Dev 007 010 012 016 135 186 238 270 2100 3074 3713 4521 044 062 077 091 339 493 596 707

1 013 012 011 009 497 415 414 379 5566 5460 4956 4077 238 249 243 227 2014 2054 1994 2024

2 021 018 018 018 538 515 500 489 5231 5090 4596 4623 223 220 231 203 1613 1450 1451 1409

3 010 008 007 006 446 413 362 318 4810 4104 3705 3050 217 227 218 212 1520 1456 1268 1213

4 012 010 009 008 499 466 440 399 4679 4289 4175 3630 227 222 202 207 1564 1407 1328 1321

5 014 012 014 010 479 493 416 361 5031 4209 3839 3683 225 222 228 236 1494 1374 1259 1205

6 025 028 028 035 774 786 849 960 8847 8937 10590 13150 263 285 280 313 2148 2332 2371 2513

7 021 024 023 025 704 782 813 827 9526 10396 11149 12151 277 296 312 350 1785 1741 1742 1729

8 015 015 012 011 534 484 458 411 5691 5348 5296 5469 186 179 154 161 2101 2134 2257 2146

9 017 017 016 015 434 352 335 309 3687 2659 2208 1557 167 147 126 120 1507 1377 1248 1173

10 029 033 037 040 417 389 337 296 4868 4408 3809 3401 181 167 143 145 1538 1394 1279 1158

11 011 008 006 005 449 408 354 334 4758 3935 3524 3236 195 191 176 153 1871 1777 1795 1751

12 020 020 022 023 665 668 712 637 9215 11363 13842 14327 222 215 215 184 1873 1818 1809 1839

13 021 021 020 023 783 842 842 907 8811 9563 8686 9220 246 234 246 254 2124 2197 2307 2336

14 016 014 012 011 603 590 570 649 6301 6010 5819 5771 221 210 220 213 2139 2281 2226 2447

15 025 029 032 034 680 714 712 755 8168 8424 9094 8582 269 290 309 299 1998 1996 1966 1927

16 023 026 023 027 735 805 871 836 7317 8319 8599 9260 256 267 265 313 2153 2255 2268 2233

17 016 015 014 013 706 792 871 828 9457 9496 9557 11733 234 246 232 254 1799 1710 1649 1544

18 021 024 021 021 643 705 699 679 7545 8706 7888 7960 234 236 232 234 1795 1682 1688 1643

19 017 016 016 015 791 795 881 1053 10420 12831 14842 14880 276 294 302 301 2645 3061 3158 3517

20 012 009 008 008 545 525 532 483 4964 4978 4418 3734 252 246 240 242 1773 1793 1792 1550

21 026 028 031 033 980 1173 1531 1623 12934 17045 20568 25587 356 432 504 555 2168 2201 2225 2430

22 022 024 022 024 539 489 513 474 5323 4839 4078 3974 207 195 204 187 1525 1374 1241 1160

23 016 015 014 011 529 506 495 414 5761 6103 5365 4695 208 203 199 201 2090 2095 2089 2103

24 025 028 027 033 889 1039 1216 1304 11617 15334 16748 19296 285 288 321 318 2559 2842 3200 3467

25 022 022 023 024 617 614 641 661 7381 7741 7734 7355 201 183 181 167 1952 1996 2017 1982

26 030 040 036 047 638 646 611 644 7631 8381 7592 8300 200 186 176 173 1881 1847 1746 1805

27 015 014 012 013 505 465 422 433 6111 5940 5338 4822 170 152 131 134 1540 1373 1368 1291

28 016 013 012 012 466 437 425 368 4837 4339 3786 3072 208 203 201 172 1790 1811 1739 1686

29 011 008 006 006 422 348 290 276 4695 3992 3213 2735 174 165 142 131 1689 1645 1658 1518

30 017 016 015 014 548 513 485 504 6066 6050 5382 5314 221 227 218 204 1640 1495 1485 1375

31 016 014 013 013 551 524 504 420 5722 4948 4442 4039 196 175 162 159 2100 2133 2163 2368

32 029 030 034 038 498 443 395 349 4147 3298 2974 2512 194 179 169 151 1517 1360 1312 1209

33 023 024 027 029 678 695 724 732 7868 8230 8443 8449 255 275 265 294 2745 3142 3492 3808

34 035 040 049 054 782 843 925 979 7755 7821 8166 8865 288 307 344 334 1997 2059 2095 2239

35 012 010 009 008 551 532 565 488 6985 7363 6872 6115 212 219 201 204 1956 2033 1866 1858

36 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238

37 018 016 015 015 431 389 338 303 4107 3434 3157 2520 187 171 151 142 1348 1200 1067 959

38 025 028 030 029 581 611 525 547 5830 4962 4681 4374 253 261 269 270 2207 2307 2331 2511

39 022 024 024 027 682 674 703 690 6289 6707 6188 5735 233 249 244 250 2093 2091 2235 2335

40 025 030 035 033 768 823 834 969 10134 12586 13876 15668 292 311 371 392 2352 2714 2751 2883

41 025 030 027 031 709 722 813 858 8066 8128 9075 8288 271 290 305 319 1724 1582 1602 1558

42 012 010 008 006 296 216 169 151 2310 1435 986 771 150 121 109 090 1253 1054 940 789

43 018 017 016 014 708 740 776 888 8939 10641 10054 10632 273 289 295 316 1937 1932 1994 1938

44 016 014 014 014 417 358 318 288 4373 3420 2897 2543 179 161 145 128 1837 1849 1811 1783

45 024 026 026 026 468 423 393 370 4820 3878 3436 2825 208 203 188 169 1724 1672 1721 1691

46 019 020 020 019 576 637 610 610 6533 6598 6666 6786 204 207 181 181 1946 1988 2078 1928

47 008 005 004 004 308 247 192 177 2637 1898 1408 972 133 105 086 075 1126 925 815 739

48 031 036 038 043 681 774 787 860 5782 6008 6054 5691 259 262 265 272 1842 1834 1805 1657

49 015 015 013 014 588 581 590 582 7612 9229 8377 8573 202 190 182 178 1837 1833 1815 1762

50 016 014 012 010 409 346 296 273 3448 2728 2433 1680 165 158 139 134 1336 1151 989 956

51 022 021 024 022 631 654 628 656 6512 6238 6863 5733 235 237 228 245 2106 2188 2174 2310

52 014 013 011 011 544 544 491 505 6007 5243 4823 4922 188 177 166 155 1851 1899 1771 1806

53 017 016 016 014 796 919 1029 1080 10035 12687 12587 16905 290 319 368 353 2432 2804 2919 3292

54 036 045 051 053 751 805 954 911 7050 7643 7510 7316 268 283 290 317 2151 2212 2363 2417

55 012 009 008 006 353 282 228 208 3268 2446 1989 1481 157 129 112 111 1155 968 849 685

56 016 014 013 014 465 409 371 337 4004 3018 2627 2306 213 212 214 195 1723 1644 1539 1573

57 035 044 057 076 868 941 1085 1127 10866 14632 17431 20089 263 292 289 318 2723 3330 3618 3836

58 025 029 028 032 611 702 664 720 5773 6288 5346 5787 224 215 201 208 1695 1604 1501 1466

59 015 015 013 011 641 694 682 672 6932 7099 7472 6962 253 283 294 282 1955 1988 1919 1987

60 013 012 010 009 370 298 275 241 3023 2238 1947 1441 142 117 100 085 1524 1373 1335 1103

61 022 024 022 025 715 776 784 849 7281 8061 8721 8562 266 276 283 281 2104 2187 2130 2121

62 013 011 011 009 569 530 507 493 5343 4890 4534 4122 232 225 235 244 1432 1283 1141 991

63 013 011 010 008 463 424 354 346 3838 3269 2540 2223 192 178 165 159 1915 1908 1952 1890

64 014 013 011 010 665 685 674 711 7254 7577 8242 7389 276 284 312 343 1902 1877 1784 1881

65 026 029 035 036 791 844 898 1008 9727 10940 12787 13483 301 335 351 371 2458 2857 3022 3126

66 016 015 015 013 456 401 376 341 4018 3011 2673 2147 167 150 131 133 1735 1631 1514 1358

67 023 023 025 028 701 829 848 816 8495 9001 9754 9979 295 315 344 372 1881 1975 1968 1960

68 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081

69 014 014 013 012 469 456 424 396 4095 3235 2716 2469 232 218 235 215 1846 1783 1769 1759

70 019 020 019 018 640 674 670 672 6785 6304 6419 6186 250 247 247 241 2062 2175 2421 2430

71 020 021 023 022 667 677 707 752 8146 8325 8879 8341 237 241 236 242 2093 2275 2232 2274

72 019 016 017 016 645 637 681 608 6432 6267 6364 5536 276 315 309 338 1695 1730 1689 1702

73 022 024 026 026 738 788 831 860 8206 8564 9419 8704 321 362 377 440 2082 2305 2281 2263

74 012 010 009 007 506 470 436 431 5243 4758 4687 3999 194 178 162 148 1729 1608 1574 1632

75 028 030 034 039 705 726 835 795 6408 6759 6094 5739 270 286 301 326 1937 1954 1896 1922

76 023 024 021 021 682 710 721 788 7888 7858 8900 8340 300 338 360 392 2170 2212 2295 2479

77 037 043 046 053 728 846 879 845 8603 8376 9776 10368 237 249 263 261 1994 2163 2185 2264

78 025 025 024 031 675 707 764 751 8609 9940 9632 11128 260 266 267 275 2037 2116 2033 2058

79 028 030 037 038 563 538 538 539 6069 6428 5732 5382 207 198 178 169 1997 2051 2146 2150

80 021 020 024 023 624 649 634 649 5664 5628 4862 4865 249 276 277 279 1991 1978 2042 2079

81 036 049 058 075 682 763 821 821 8688 10002 9662 11595 256 263 267 272 2539 2827 3224 3603

82 025 028 027 031 459 404 360 341 4251 3653 3090 2716 218 209 213 217 2113 2139 2220 2171

83 032 040 045 058 565 534 572 519 5492 5063 4457 4135 200 189 189 176 1395 1244 1164 1068

84 020 018 018 018 624 658 693 620 6792 7087 6486 6822 229 248 240 235 1872 1857 1800 1782

85 019 019 019 018 568 505 491 479 6077 5656 5435 5757 203 183 174 162 1503 1310 1234 1158

86 025 028 029 031 822 902 905 1027 9657 11730 12287 13947 371 443 494 567 2146 2219 2432 2437

87 017 017 017 017 459 442 370 359 4358 3610 2995 2507 211 198 192 184 1850 1834 1860 1886

88 015 015 012 012 521 472 428 410 5694 5653 4597 4234 237 251 240 237 1725 1626 1572 1414

89 017 015 016 016 439 390 356 319 4202 3278 2938 2741 165 140 135 115 1302 1087 949 834

90 029 035 042 044 638 663 758 822 8360 9427 9758 9092 272 294 308 317 2294 2392 2612 2639

91 011 010 008 007 510 496 467 432 5667 5025 4150 4024 221 204 200 193 2037 2135 2235 2228

92 019 019 017 020 468 452 412 386 4681 3784 3476 3030 202 189 181 173 1550 1325 1272 1204

93 009 007 005 004 487 414 388 392 5470 4414 3990 3422 216 208 204 197 1936 1918 2013 2008

94 012 011 009 008 525 506 477 455 5461 5197 4182 3541 207 214 183 193 1749 1664 1613 1559

95 014 012 011 010 653 681 623 720 8745 9344 10628 11302 292 316 329 347 2366 2750 2806 3056

96 016 016 014 014 534 539 504 468 6087 5637 6034 5187 234 241 239 242 1821 1777 1749 1662

97 011 009 007 006 416 329 290 268 3611 2898 2629 1945 186 179 158 148 1560 1397 1335 1168

98 026 031 032 038 703 764 801 853 7465 7940 7971 6489 264 280 283 303 1679 1496 1411 1393

99 021 021 022 021 546 510 479 489 5851 5276 5787 4832 232 222 218 237 1745 1706 1664 1748

100 016 014 012 011 571 562 594 523 6238 6149 6375 6392 261 271 285 290 2084 2148 2302 2267

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2

3 3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1

1

185947613236 209700016612 381289955056 113496909508 105940968217

261410846662 278202957602 636440926272 159777507841 164064511715

340758878594 374684278258 761658671012 238893166595 230844682326

456070302878 505106365162 869191059145 27405034829 302394276185

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

2012 Gross Exposure 2012 Gross Exposure 2012 Gross Exposure 2012 Gross Exposure 2012 Gross Exposure 2012 Gross Exposure 2012 Gross Exposure

Sugar Sugar Sugar Sugar Sugar Sugar Sugar

Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas

Electricity Electricity Electricity Electricity Electricity Electricity Electricity

Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel

Aluminum Aluminum Aluminum Aluminum Aluminum Aluminum Aluminum

1

Oliver Wyman Six Steps to Assess Commodity Risk Exposure

USER INPUTS RISK PROFILE OUTPUTS

Date 1112 5 Holistic commodity profile and impact on earnings (baseline 95 confidence band 5 confidence band)

Price and Volatility Base 5th -ile 95th -ile

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Un hedged Hedged Impact Un hedged Hedged Impact

Price Volatility Price Volatlity Price Volatility Price Volatility of hedge of hedge

Sugar ($lbs) $ 020 70 $ 021 70 $ 022 70 $ 023 70 Sales 2069 2069 2069 - 0 2069 2069 - 0

Natural gas ($MMBTU) $ 573 48 $ 573 48 $ 573 48 $ 573 48 Cost of Goods Sold

Electricity ($MWh) $ 6227 69 $ 6227 69 $ 6227 69 $ 6227 69 Fixed Costs 480 480 480 - 0 480 480 - 0

Diesel ($gal) $ 224 37 $ 224 37 $ 224 37 $ 224 37 Sugar 119 58 58 - 0 311 311 - 0

Aluminum ($KTon) $ 1878 32 $ 1878 32 $ 1878 32 $ 1878 32 Natural gas 237 112 112 - 0 351 351 - 0

Electricity 249 87 87 - 0 381 381 - 0

Exposure risk level 95 Diesel 155 101 101 - 0 166 166 - 0

Aluminum 131 91 91 - 0 248 248 - 0

Commodity volumes (in millions) Variable Costs 892 450 450 - 0 1456 1456 - 0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total COGS 1372 930 930 - 0 1936 1936 - 0

Sugar (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500 Gen amp Admin Exp 360 360 360 - 0 360 360 - 0

Natural gas (MMBTU) 96 101 106 111 EBITDA 337 779 779 - 0 (228) (228) - 0

Electricity (MWh) 10 10 10 10

Diesel (gal) 160 168 176 185

Aluminum (KTon) 16 17 18 19 4 Net commodity exposure 2012 by commodity (in millions $)

Other financial statement assumptions

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sales volume (in millions) 3200 3360 3528 3704

Sales price ($) 015 015 015 015

Fixed costs ($ millions) 120 120 120 120

GampA Exp ($ millions) 90 90 90 90

Hedge Selection

Futures

Sugar No

Natural gas No

Electricity No

Diesel No

Aluminum No

3 Gross commodity exposure 2012 (in millions $)

a) By quarter b) By commodity

All exposures reported as the difference between the 95th percentile highest exposure and the expected baseline gross commodity exposure

2 Estimated commodity volumes for 2012 by quarters (variable units in millions $)

1 Commodity price projections (baseline 95 confidence band 5 confidence band)


Read Me - File Overview

About this RepoRt

this report and the associated workbook provide guidance for companies to better

understand and quantify the impact of commodity risks on earnings in order to improve an

organizationrsquos commodity risk management

the supporting excel workbook is available by clicking on the pushpin icon this guide is a

companion piece to ldquoVolatility not Vulnerabilityrdquo published by the Association for Financial

professionals (AFp) and oliver Wyman in october 2011 the article is available by clicking on

the pushpin icon or can be found online at wwwoliverwymancom

CoRpoRAte ChAllenges in mAnAging Commodity Risk

bull developing management strategies (pricing procurement and hedging) using a holistic risk-return perspective instead of just heuristics to make decisions

bull evaluating portfolios of potential mitigation strategies which have impact on internal diversification and aggregation in adequate depth

bull Automating the aggregation and integration of a wide range of data and assumptions (eg purchasing contracts commodity forecasts ability to pass-through)

bull Applying sufficient tools to engage suppliers on contract terms using a risk-return perspective and to develop innovative structures that are mutually beneficial

bull engaging champions and senior sponsors who are passionate about implementing long-term risk mitigation strategies such as revised contract structures or pricing changes

bull treating commodity price risk management as a ldquomargin stabilizationrdquo process rather than a ldquocostrdquo

Global Risk Center
























8

12

10

6

4

2

0

14


1987 1991 1995 2003 20111999 2007

Crude Oil

Copper

Wheat




CAUSE DESCRIPTION






















GOVERNANCE









GOVERNANCE


INFRASTRUCTURE


ANALYTICS



INFRASTRUCTURE
















ANALYTICS










ThINK LIKE A TRADER































































GROSS EXPOSURE


NET EXPOSURE


Source Oliver Wyman












suppliers


risk exposure
















CONCLUSION










ABOUT THE AUTHORS

MICHAEL J DENTON






ALEX WITTENBERG










wwwoliverwymancom




MIChAEL J DENTON


ALEx WITTENBERG


BRIAN T KALISh


Oliver Wyman
File Attachment

intRoduCtion









Output prices



COMPANY





Input prices





















5 NET EXPOSURE

4 RISK MANAGEMENT

PORTFOLIO

3 GROSS EXPOSURE


PURCHASE VOLUMES

1 COMMODITY PRICE

PROJECTIONS

STEPS

























may evolve





















time horizon


ReadMe


Interface

Interface

REF
1

Cmdy Price Proj

Invisible
Grey
Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
124418764137
1367693617635
2648580611483
786217932233
803244438443
5605736599794
124418764137
4238042982159
1367693617635
1589462370676
2648580611483
803244438443
786217932233
0
803244438443

Correlations

5
95
Mean
Sugar
01107087317
03452715728
02
00854552129
04050827214
021
00695646039
04616729635
022
0061034605
05340468686
023


Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum

Gross Exposure

REF
EPS-at-risk
1

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

REF
EBITDA
1


Diesel
Electricity
Natural gas
Crude oil
Price change
EPS impact
Invisible
Grey
Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
1912572265773
1138117311849
1319658025171
11406289411
1162397994146
3734236225276
1912572265773
2596118913427
1138117311849
1276460888256
1319658025171
1162397994146
11406289411
0
1162397994146
5
95
Mean
Natural Gas
40688610903
79154680028
57310928297
32742030186
84855775584
57310928297
28887025303
92658501718
57310928297
26679947564
10281600624
57310928297

Net Exposure

5
95
Mean
Electricity
344141498094
1003995388957
622705433902
264877650618
1259146360173
622705433902
219723962528
1384358671012
6227
15528763279
1491896493046
622705433902

Fin Statement

5
95
Mean
Diesel
16508189205
29538139317
22444582473
14672697038
31955148416
22444582473
13074767002
36018057848
22444582473
11953891033
37258114813
22444582473


5
95
Mean
Aluminum
134769028369
254013105136
1878
119721652401
284279599425
187771063122
106347176349
316018108859
187771063122
95839609124
346925945325
187771063122

Graph support

Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
128
96
1
16
16
134
101
1
168
17
141
106
1
176
18
150
111
1
185
19

95ile
5ile
Earnings statement
-161353539101
1326569803377
611516334878
-421367106558
1798147036403
760774397443
-642177203637
2144399264928
918591594906
-1050874848209
2521161989213
1080153466317





Oliver Wyman
File Attachment









elasticity analysis






























































c Financial hedging



power to recover


revenue management



cost management



structured deals


capacity here)


integration eg


retail trading

examPle strategies


mechanisms (across


product portfolio)



purchase contracts









limit downside


with contracts with


underlying exposure





contribute greatest




to customers


earnings certainty




to supplier under

certain structures



and volatility






risk exposure


products or move to



product price



for risk sharing

bull need to find

receptive suppliers





cross-hedging



for joint ventures

or acquisitions


complexity


step 5 net exposuRe








the organization

























earnings profile






individual bu level


of probability








on earningsrdquo


ConClusion













other commodities






















wwwoliverwymancom


AuthoRs






Invisible 5606 4238 1589 803 00

Grey 1244 1368 2649 786 803

Sugar 1244 186 261 341 456 1244

Natural gas 1368 210 278 375 505 1368

Electricity 2649 381 636 762 869 2649

Diesel 786 113 160 239 274 786

Aluminum 803 106 164 231 302 803


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sugar 12800 13400 14100 15000

Natural gas 960 1010 1060 1110


Diesel 1600 1680 1760 1850

Aluminum 160 170 180 190



Invisible 3734 2596 1276 1162 00

Grey 1913 1138 1320 114 1162

Sugar 1913 207 404 530 771 1913

Natural gas 1138 168 250 348 372 1138

Electricity 1320 221 266 331 502 1320

Diesel 114 26 39 12 38 114

Aluminum 1162 151 223 340 448 1162


Cost (95)



Sugar 463 686 840 1116 463 686 840 1116 3105


Price 036 051 060 074

Natural gas 718 829 956 1008 718 829 956 1008 3511

Volume 96 101 106 111 718 829 956 1008 3511 Unhedged

Price 75 82 90 91

Electricity 844 888 953 1125 844 888 953 1125 3810

Volume 10 10 10 10 844 888 953 1125 3810 Unhedged

Price 844 888 953 1125

Diesel 385 416 407 453 385 416 407 453 1660

Volume 160 168 176 185 385 416 407 453 1660 Unhedged

Price 24 25 23 24

Aluminum 451 543 678 805 451 543 678 805 2477

Volume 16 17 18 19 451 543 678 805 2476841735006 Unhedged

Price 282 319 377 424

Total 2861 3361 3834 4507 2861 3361 3834 4507 14564

2861 3361 3834 4507 14563772697504 Unhedged

Cost (5)



Sugar 179 142 141 119 179 142 141 119 581


Price 014 011 010 008

Natural gas 347 283 251 241 347 283 251 241 1123

Volume 96 101 106 111 347 283 251 241 1123 Unhedged

Price 36 28 24 22

Electricity 332 223 176 138 332 223 176 138 868

Volume 10 10 10 10 332 223 176 138 868 Unhedged

Price 332 223 176 138

Diesel 275 264 244 231 275 264 244 231 1015

Volume 160 168 176 185 275 264 244 231 1015 Unhedged

Price 17 16 14 12

Aluminum 241 230 236 205 241 230 236 205 911

Volume 16 17 18 19 241 230 236 205 911127595797 Unhedged

Price 150 135 131 108

Total 1373 1142 1048 935 1373 1142 1048 935 4498

95ile 5ile

Sales 480 504 529 556 480 504 529 556

Fixed Costs 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

Variable Costs 286 336 383 451 137 114 105 93


EBITDA (16) (42) (64) (105) 133 180 214 252


[Optional comments]



































































































Earnings statement


Sales 48000 50400 52920 55560 206880

Volume 320000 336000 352800 370400 1379200

Price ($) 015 015 015 015

000


Fixed Costs 12000 12000 12000 12000 48000

Sugar ($lbs) 2560 2814 3102 3450 11926

Volume (lbs) 12800 13400 14100 15000

Price 020 021 022 023

000


Volume 960 1010 1060 1110

Price 573 573 573 573

000


Volume 100 100 100 100

Price 6227 6227 6227 6227

000


Volume 1600 1680 1760 1850

Price 224 224 224 224

000

Aluminum 3005 3192 3380 3568 13144

Volume 160 170 180 190

Price 1878 1878 1878 1878

Variable Costs 20885 21792 22734 23758 89170

000


000

EBITDA 6115 7608 9186 10802 33710

Impact of hedging


Futures Used

Sugar No

Natural gas No

Electricity No

Diesel No

Aluminum No

Net exposure (95)



Sugar 463 686 840 1116 207 404 530 771 1913

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500

Price 036 051 060 074

00 00 00 00 00

Natural gas 718 829 956 1008 168 250 348 372 1138

Volume 96 101 106 111

Price 75 82 90 91

00 00 00 00 00

Electricity 844 888 953 1125 221 266 331 502 1320

Volume 10 10 10 10

Price 844 888 953 1125

00 00 00 00 00

Diesel 385 416 407 453 26 39 12 38 114

Volume 160 168 176 185

Price 24 25 23 24

00 00 00 00 00

Aluminum 451 543 678 805 151 223 340 448 1162

Volume 16 17 18 19

Price 282 319 377 424

Total 2861 3361 3834 4507 773 1182 1561 2131 5647





Mean 020 021 022 023 573 573 573 573 6227 6227 6227 6227 224 224 224 224 1878 1878 1878 1878

Volatility 070 070 070 070 048 048 048 048 069 069 069 069 037 037 037 037 032 032 032 032

Time 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100

Volume 12800 13400 14100 15000 960 1010 1060 1110 100 100 100 100 1600 1680 1760 1850 160 170 180 190

Simulated

5 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081 48715

95 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238 145722

Std Dev 007 010 012 016 135 186 238 270 2100 3074 3713 4521 044 062 077 091 339 493 596 707

Mean


32380 47 008 005 004 004 308 247 192 177 2637 1898 1408 972 133 105 086 075 1126 925 815 739 32380

33948 42 012 010 008 006 296 216 169 151 2310 1435 986 771 150 121 109 090 1253 1054 940 789 33948

39948 55 012 009 008 006 353 282 228 208 3268 2446 1989 1481 157 129 112 111 1155 968 849 685 39948

43542 60 013 012 010 009 370 298 275 241 3023 2238 1947 1441 142 117 100 085 1524 1373 1335 1103 43542

44977 68 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081 44977

48911 50 016 014 012 010 409 346 296 273 3448 2728 2433 1680 165 158 139 134 1336 1151 989 956 48911

49824 97 011 009 007 006 416 329 290 268 3611 2898 2629 1945 186 179 158 148 1560 1397 1335 1168 49824

52614 9 017 017 016 015 434 352 335 309 3687 2659 2208 1557 167 147 126 120 1507 1377 1248 1173 52614

54247 89 017 015 016 016 439 390 356 319 4202 3278 2938 2741 165 140 135 115 1302 1087 949 834 54247

54467 29 011 008 006 006 422 348 290 276 4695 3992 3213 2735 174 165 142 131 1689 1645 1658 1518 54467

56081 37 018 016 015 015 431 389 338 303 4107 3434 3157 2520 187 171 151 142 1348 1200 1067 959 56081

56950 66 016 015 015 013 456 401 376 341 4018 3011 2673 2147 167 150 131 133 1735 1631 1514 1358 56950

58740 44 016 014 014 014 417 358 318 288 4373 3420 2897 2543 179 161 145 128 1837 1849 1811 1783 58740

59233 63 013 011 010 008 463 424 354 346 3838 3269 2540 2223 192 178 165 159 1915 1908 1952 1890 59233

60239 11 011 008 006 005 449 408 354 334 4758 3935 3524 3236 195 191 176 153 1871 1777 1795 1751 60239

60316 3 010 008 007 006 446 413 362 318 4810 4104 3705 3050 217 227 218 212 1520 1456 1268 1213 60316

61664 56 016 014 013 014 465 409 371 337 4004 3018 2627 2306 213 212 214 195 1723 1644 1539 1573 61664

65269 4 012 010 009 008 499 466 440 399 4679 4289 4175 3630 227 222 202 207 1564 1407 1328 1321 65269

65273 92 019 019 017 020 468 452 412 386 4681 3784 3476 3030 202 189 181 173 1550 1325 1272 1204 65273

65764 69 014 014 013 012 469 456 424 396 4095 3235 2716 2469 232 218 235 215 1846 1783 1769 1759 65764

65876 93 009 007 005 004 487 414 388 392 5470 4414 3990 3422 216 208 204 197 1936 1918 2013 2008 65876

66078 87 017 017 017 017 459 442 370 359 4358 3610 2995 2507 211 198 192 184 1850 1834 1860 1886 66078

66116 74 012 010 009 007 506 470 436 431 5243 4758 4687 3999 194 178 162 148 1729 1608 1574 1632 66116

66562 28 016 013 012 012 466 437 425 368 4837 4339 3786 3072 208 203 201 172 1790 1811 1739 1686 66562

66781 5 014 012 014 010 479 493 416 361 5031 4209 3839 3683 225 222 228 236 1494 1374 1259 1205 66781

68244 27 015 014 012 013 505 465 422 433 6111 5940 5338 4822 170 152 131 134 1540 1373 1368 1291 68244

69290 94 012 011 009 008 525 506 477 455 5461 5197 4182 3541 207 214 183 193 1749 1664 1613 1559 69290

69701 32 029 030 034 038 498 443 395 349 4147 3298 2974 2512 194 179 169 151 1517 1360 1312 1209 69701

70796 10 029 033 037 040 417 389 337 296 4868 4408 3809 3401 181 167 143 145 1538 1394 1279 1158 70796

71222 62 013 011 011 009 569 530 507 493 5343 4890 4534 4122 232 225 235 244 1432 1283 1141 991 71222

71261 45 024 026 026 026 468 423 393 370 4820 3878 3436 2825 208 203 188 169 1724 1672 1721 1691 71261

72702 91 011 010 008 007 510 496 467 432 5667 5025 4150 4024 221 204 200 193 2037 2135 2235 2228 72702

73734 20 012 009 008 008 545 525 532 483 4964 4978 4418 3734 252 246 240 242 1773 1793 1792 1550 73734

73801 52 014 013 011 011 544 544 491 505 6007 5243 4823 4922 188 177 166 155 1851 1899 1771 1806 73801

74108 88 015 015 012 012 521 472 428 410 5694 5653 4597 4234 237 251 240 237 1725 1626 1572 1414 74108

74317 1 013 012 011 009 497 415 414 379 5566 5460 4956 4077 238 249 243 227 2014 2054 1994 2024 74317

74660 22 022 024 022 024 539 489 513 474 5323 4839 4078 3974 207 195 204 187 1525 1374 1241 1160 74660

74808 31 016 014 013 013 551 524 504 420 5722 4948 4442 4039 196 175 162 159 2100 2133 2163 2368 74808

74998 82 025 028 027 031 459 404 360 341 4251 3653 3090 2716 218 209 213 217 2113 2139 2220 2171 74998

75350 8 015 015 012 011 534 484 458 411 5691 5348 5296 5469 186 179 154 161 2101 2134 2257 2146 75350

75850 85 019 019 019 018 568 505 491 479 6077 5656 5435 5757 203 183 174 162 1503 1310 1234 1158 75850

76270 2 021 018 018 018 538 515 500 489 5231 5090 4596 4623 223 220 231 203 1613 1450 1451 1409 76270

78037 30 017 016 015 014 548 513 485 504 6066 6050 5382 5314 221 227 218 204 1640 1495 1485 1375 78037

78226 23 016 015 014 011 529 506 495 414 5761 6103 5365 4695 208 203 199 201 2090 2095 2089 2103 78226

81022 96 016 016 014 014 534 539 504 468 6087 5637 6034 5187 234 241 239 242 1821 1777 1749 1662 81022

82068 99 021 021 022 021 546 510 479 489 5851 5276 5787 4832 232 222 218 237 1745 1706 1664 1748 82068

82643 35 012 010 009 008 551 532 565 488 6985 7363 6872 6115 212 219 201 204 1956 2033 1866 1858 82643

87060 14 016 014 012 011 603 590 570 649 6301 6010 5819 5771 221 210 220 213 2139 2281 2226 2447 87060

87614 83 032 040 045 058 565 534 572 519 5492 5063 4457 4135 200 189 189 176 1395 1244 1164 1068 87614

89614 46 019 020 020 019 576 637 610 610 6533 6598 6666 6786 204 207 181 181 1946 1988 2078 1928 89614

90297 100 016 014 012 011 571 562 594 523 6238 6149 6375 6392 261 271 285 290 2084 2148 2302 2267 90297

91492 49 015 015 013 014 588 581 590 582 7612 9229 8377 8573 202 190 182 178 1837 1833 1815 1762 91492

92285 79 028 030 037 038 563 538 538 539 6069 6428 5732 5382 207 198 178 169 1997 2051 2146 2150 92285

92517 80 021 020 024 023 624 649 634 649 5664 5628 4862 4865 249 276 277 279 1991 1978 2042 2079 92517

92520 58 025 029 028 032 611 702 664 720 5773 6288 5346 5787 224 215 201 208 1695 1604 1501 1466 92520

93297 38 025 028 030 029 581 611 525 547 5830 4962 4681 4374 253 261 269 270 2207 2307 2331 2511 93297

93492 84 020 018 018 018 624 658 693 620 6792 7087 6486 6822 229 248 240 235 1872 1857 1800 1782 93492

94010 72 019 016 017 016 645 637 681 608 6432 6267 6364 5536 276 315 309 338 1695 1730 1689 1702 94010

95355 25 022 022 023 024 617 614 641 661 7381 7741 7734 7355 201 183 181 167 1952 1996 2017 1982 95355

95981 51 022 021 024 022 631 654 628 656 6512 6238 6863 5733 235 237 228 245 2106 2188 2174 2310 95981

96590 70 019 020 019 018 640 674 670 672 6785 6304 6419 6186 250 247 247 241 2062 2175 2421 2430 96590

96659 59 015 015 013 011 641 694 682 672 6932 7099 7472 6962 253 283 294 282 1955 1988 1919 1987 96659

98984 39 022 024 024 027 682 674 703 690 6289 6707 6188 5735 233 249 244 250 2093 2091 2235 2335 98984

99473 64 014 013 011 010 665 685 674 711 7254 7577 8242 7389 276 284 312 343 1902 1877 1784 1881 99473

100438 18 021 024 021 021 643 705 699 679 7545 8706 7888 7960 234 236 232 234 1795 1682 1688 1643 100438

104925 26 030 040 036 047 638 646 611 644 7631 8381 7592 8300 200 186 176 173 1881 1847 1746 1805 104925

106683 71 020 021 023 022 667 677 707 752 8146 8325 8879 8341 237 241 236 242 2093 2275 2232 2274 106683

107046 48 031 036 038 043 681 774 787 860 5782 6008 6054 5691 259 262 265 272 1842 1834 1805 1657 107046

108929 75 028 030 034 039 705 726 835 795 6408 6759 6094 5739 270 286 301 326 1937 1954 1896 1922 108929

109789 17 016 015 014 013 706 792 871 828 9457 9496 9557 11733 234 246 232 254 1799 1710 1649 1544 109789

109940 98 026 031 032 038 703 764 801 853 7465 7940 7971 6489 264 280 283 303 1679 1496 1411 1393 109940

111963 61 022 024 022 025 715 776 784 849 7281 8061 8721 8562 266 276 283 281 2104 2187 2130 2121 111963

113140 41 025 030 027 031 709 722 813 858 8066 8128 9075 8288 271 290 305 319 1724 1582 1602 1558 113140

114475 15 025 029 032 034 680 714 712 755 8168 8424 9094 8582 269 290 309 299 1998 1996 1966 1927 114475

115420 76 023 024 021 021 682 710 721 788 7888 7858 8900 8340 300 338 360 392 2170 2212 2295 2479 115420

115470 12 020 020 022 023 665 668 712 637 9215 11363 13842 14327 222 215 215 184 1873 1818 1809 1839 115470

115543 43 018 017 016 014 708 740 776 888 8939 10641 10054 10632 273 289 295 316 1937 1932 1994 1938 115543

115599 16 023 026 023 027 735 805 871 836 7317 8319 8599 9260 256 267 265 313 2153 2255 2268 2233 115599

115628 95 014 012 011 010 653 681 623 720 8745 9344 10628 11302 292 316 329 347 2366 2750 2806 3056 115628

115695 13 021 021 020 023 783 842 842 907 8811 9563 8686 9220 246 234 246 254 2124 2197 2307 2336 115695

116747 78 025 025 024 031 675 707 764 751 8609 9940 9632 11128 260 266 267 275 2037 2116 2033 2058 116747

118794 33 023 024 027 029 678 695 724 732 7868 8230 8443 8449 255 275 265 294 2745 3142 3492 3808 118794

120798 67 023 023 025 028 701 829 848 816 8495 9001 9754 9979 295 315 344 372 1881 1975 1968 1960 120798

122134 7 021 024 023 025 704 782 813 827 9526 10396 11149 12151 277 296 312 350 1785 1741 1742 1729 122134

123516 73 022 024 026 026 738 788 831 860 8206 8564 9419 8704 321 362 377 440 2082 2305 2281 2263 123516

125606 90 029 035 042 044 638 663 758 822 8360 9427 9758 9092 272 294 308 317 2294 2392 2612 2639 125606

126928 54 036 045 051 053 751 805 954 911 7050 7643 7510 7316 268 283 290 317 2151 2212 2363 2417 126928

128846 77 037 043 046 053 728 846 879 845 8603 8376 9776 10368 237 249 263 261 1994 2163 2185 2264 128846

128878 6 025 028 028 035 774 786 849 960 8847 8937 10590 13150 263 285 280 313 2148 2332 2371 2513 128878

130807 34 035 040 049 054 782 843 925 979 7755 7821 8166 8865 288 307 344 334 1997 2059 2095 2239 130807

140398 19 017 016 016 015 791 795 881 1053 10420 12831 14842 14880 276 294 302 301 2645 3061 3158 3517 140398

142414 81 036 049 058 075 682 763 821 821 8688 10002 9662 11595 256 263 267 272 2539 2827 3224 3603 142414

143917 53 017 016 016 014 796 919 1029 1080 10035 12687 12587 16905 290 319 368 353 2432 2804 2919 3292 143917

145005 65 026 029 035 036 791 844 898 1008 9727 10940 12787 13483 301 335 351 371 2458 2857 3022 3126 145005

145638 36 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238 145638

147330 40 025 030 035 033 768 823 834 969 10134 12586 13876 15668 292 311 371 392 2352 2714 2751 2883 147330

149955 86 025 028 029 031 822 902 905 1027 9657 11730 12287 13947 371 443 494 567 2146 2219 2432 2437 149955

167385 24 025 028 027 033 889 1039 1216 1304 11617 15334 16748 19296 285 288 321 318 2559 2842 3200 3467 167385

178469 57 035 044 057 076 868 941 1085 1127 10866 14632 17431 20089 263 292 289 318 2723 3330 3618 3836 178469

195830 21 026 028 031 033 980 1173 1531 1623 12934 17045 20568 25587 356 432 504 555 2168 2201 2225 2430 195830


Futures Description







Gross Exposure



Sugar 442 543 651 801 186 261 341 456 1244

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500

Price 035 041 046 053

00 00 00 00 00

Natural gas 760 857 982 1141 210 278 375 505 1368

Volume (MMBTU) 96 101 106 111

Price 792 849 927 1028

00 00 00 00 00

Electricity 1004 1259 1384 1492 381 636 762 869 2649

Volume (MWh) 10 10 10 10

Price 1004 1259 1384 1492

00 00 00 00 00

Diesel 473 537 634 689 113 160 239 274 786

Volume (gal) 160 168 176 185

Price 295 320 360 373

00 00 00 00 00

Aluminum 406 483 569 659 106 164 231 302 803


Price 2540 2843 3160 3469

Total 3085 3679 4220 4783 996 1500 1947 2407 6850



Sales 48000 50400 52920 55560 206880

Volume 320000 336000 352800 370400 1379200

Price ($) 015 015 015 015 016

000


Fixed Costs 12000 12000 12000 12000 48000

Sugar ($) 2560 2814 3102 3450 11926

Volume (lb) 12800 13400 14100 15000

($lb) 020 021 022 023

000

Natural gas ($) 5502 5788 6075 6362 23727

Volume (MMBTU) 960 1010 1060 1110

Price ($MMBTU) 573 573 573 573

000

Electricity ($) 6227 6227 6227 6227 24908

Volume 100 100 100 100

Price 6227 6227 6227 6227

000

Diesel ($l) 3591 3771 3950 4152 15464

Volume 1600 1680 1760 1850

Price 224 224 224 224

000

Aluminum ($) 3005 3192 3380 3568 13144

Volume 160 170 180 190

Price 1878 1878 1878 1878

Variable Costs 20885 21792 22734 23758 89170

Correlations




Sugar Q1 100 099 099 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q2 099 100 099 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q3 099 099 100 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q4 099 099 099 100 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Nat Gas Q1 065 065 065 065 100 099 099 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q2 065 065 065 065 099 100 099 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q3 065 065 065 065 099 099 100 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q4 065 065 065 065 099 099 099 100 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Electricity Q1 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 100 099 099 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q2 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 100 099 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q3 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 099 100 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q4 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 099 099 100 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Diesel Q1 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 100 099 099 099 066 066 066 066

Q2 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 100 099 099 066 066 066 066

Q3 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 099 100 099 066 066 066 066

Q4 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 099 099 100 066 066 066 066

Aluminum Q1 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 100 099 099 099

Q2 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 100 099 099

Q3 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 099 100 099

Q4 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 099 099 100





1 (108) (092) (082) (107) (047) (078) (057) (062) (015) (003) (008) (027) 041 052 041 022 052 051 036 039

2 031 (007) (006) (003) (015) (014) (012) (009) (033) (017) (021) (009) 005 005 026 (009) (087) (103) (079) (074)

3 (176) (167) (159) (155) (092) (079) (090) (098) (058) (061) (057) (069) (009) 018 007 002 (124) (101) (128) (121)

4 (134) (119) (112) (122) (046) (044) (043) (052) (066) (052) (037) (044) 016 009 (016) (003) (106) (116) (111) (094)

5 (075) (080) (049) (077) (063) (028) (057) (072) (045) (056) (051) (042) 011 010 021 032 (135) (127) (130) (123)

6 082 082 072 095 137 110 115 132 119 098 119 143 095 104 085 108 092 107 098 107

7 035 050 038 044 098 108 105 100 140 129 127 131 123 119 119 139 (024) (022) (013) (010)

8 (056) (044) (076) (066) (017) (033) (033) (045) (009) (007) 003 016 (091) (074) (102) (071) 078 068 080 058

9 (025) (015) (023) (027) (104) (127) (109) (105) (135) (150) (144) (166) (149) (148) (165) (151) (130) (126) (134) (131)

10 126 116 115 112 (120) (097) (107) (114) (054) (046) (052) (053) (107) (099) (125) (099) (117) (120) (125) (135)

11 (166) (182) (173) (174) (090) (083) (095) (089) (061) (070) (065) (060) (066) (048) (061) (084) 006 (013) (002) (006)

12 014 014 034 034 074 062 073 046 131 148 164 155 003 (003) 002 (035) 006 (003) 000 010

13 034 028 011 035 142 130 113 120 118 112 086 091 060 030 044 052 085 081 088 084

14 (048) (059) (063) (068) 033 026 020 050 021 017 019 023 001 (012) 009 005 089 097 075 099

15 079 091 090 091 083 082 073 081 096 086 093 081 107 112 115 096 047 038 030 024

16 058 071 034 059 116 117 122 103 064 084 084 092 081 080 068 108 093 092 082 070

17 (046) (041) (043) (048) 099 112 121 101 138 111 102 126 031 049 027 052 (019) (030) (033) (045)

18 030 052 025 024 060 078 068 059 073 093 069 070 031 033 026 030 (020) (037) (024) (026)

19 (034) (031) (025) (026) 146 114 124 151 166 173 175 161 121 116 108 097 222 227 201 212

20 (119) (138) (136) (114) (009) (009) 003 (012) (048) (021) (028) (040) 073 048 037 039 (028) (009) (003) (044)

21 092 081 085 085 236 228 257 241 229 231 230 239 259 264 269 263 098 082 075 097

22 047 052 031 042 (014) (030) (006) (016) (028) (027) (041) (031) (035) (040) (014) (031) (122) (127) (135) (134)

23 (043) (047) (046) (069) (021) (019) (014) (044) (005) 020 005 (006) (032) (025) (021) (012) 075 060 052 051

24 082 083 064 089 195 192 202 195 198 209 195 198 138 109 128 113 201 194 206 208

25 039 030 035 039 042 037 048 054 067 069 066 059 (050) (065) (051) (061) 032 038 040 033

26 130 157 113 138 057 052 036 048 076 085 063 076 (053) (058) (061) (052) 009 004 (012) 004

27 (063) (063) (067) (046) (041) (045) (053) (035) 012 015 004 (003) (140) (136) (152) (120) (116) (127) (101) (101)

28 (051) (067) (068) (058) (075) (063) (051) (068) (056) (050) (053) (068) (031) (025) (019) (053) (022) (005) (014) (018)

29 (165) (163) (176) (155) (115) (130) (143) (128) (065) (067) (081) (085) (128) (105) (126) (127) (058) (047) (031) (050)

30 (029) (031) (029) (032) (007) (016) (019) (003) 010 018 005 012 001 017 007 (007) (077) (089) (071) (081)

31 (040) (055) (058) (043) (004) (009) (010) (041) (007) (023) (027) (028) (065) (082) (086) (075) 078 068 065 089

32 123 098 102 105 (047) (059) (069) (079) (101) (106) (094) (097) (069) (074) (072) (089) (125) (131) (115) (122)

33 057 052 066 070 082 074 077 075 085 082 081 079 079 090 068 091 245 239 238 237

34 174 156 162 156 142 131 136 135 081 071 075 086 143 133 150 126 046 052 053 071

35 (121) (127) (111) (122) (004) (005) 018 (009) 051 059 046 032 (021) 003 (018) (008) 034 046 012 013

36 187 205 195 203 123 123 130 120 105 097 101 120 046 051 025 042 262 246 265 270

37 (019) (031) (029) (029) (106) (097) (106) (108) (103) (098) (084) (097) (090) (092) (107) (106) (199) (187) (190) (194)

38 080 080 081 069 018 036 (001) 014 (002) (022) (018) (017) 074 071 073 069 109 102 092 107

39 040 053 044 058 085 065 070 063 020 040 029 023 029 053 042 047 076 059 077 084

40 085 100 108 089 134 123 111 133 158 169 164 168 151 138 173 169 149 174 152 150

41 082 097 061 076 101 085 105 108 092 079 093 076 111 111 112 113 (045) (064) (044) (042)

42 (123) (134) (135) (147) (263) (271) (274) (254) (270) (276) (279) (268) (210) (223) (208) (227) (245) (244) (236) (255)

43 (016) (018) (018) (034) 100 092 094 115 122 134 110 112 115 109 102 111 027 024 035 026

44 (048) (052) (042) (035) (120) (122) (121) (119) (085) (098) (098) (095) (112) (115) (120) (132) (006) 005 001 (000)

45 069 067 059 054 (073) (073) (070) (067) (057) (073) (070) (080) (033) (026) (039) (057) (045) (040) (018) (017)

46 005 011 013 005 014 048 036 037 031 036 041 047 (043) (018) (052) (039) 030 037 050 024

47 (235) (256) (232) (222) (247) (231) (242) (221) (232) (219) (219) (235) (272) (277) (282) (278) (312) (301) (287) (275)

48 143 131 119 126 084 106 097 108 (004) 017 025 021 087 072 067 071 (004) 001 (000) (023)

49 (063) (045) (054) (035) 023 021 028 027 075 105 080 081 (048) (052) (049) (045) (006) 001 002 (004)

50 (055) (060) (066) (079) (129) (132) (138) (130) (154) (145) (127) (155) (157) (121) (133) (121) (205) (205) (217) (195)

51 039 028 044 031 052 056 043 052 030 025 046 023 035 034 022 042 079 079 067 081

52 (087) (075) (088) (067) (009) 002 (016) (002) 007 (011) (013) 000 (087) (077) (079) (081) (001) 016 (007) 004

53 (032) (024) (025) (035) 149 156 161 156 156 170 148 179 148 147 170 141 170 188 173 191

54 186 179 168 155 124 117 143 121 053 066 061 058 106 101 095 112 093 084 097 095

55 (135) (144) (137) (150) (190) (192) (201) (188) (170) (167) (161) (174) (185) (199) (201) (171) (296) (281) (273) (299)

56 (052) (051) (058) (040) (075) (083) (084) (087) (111) (124) (115) (109) (019) (009) 002 (019) (046) (047) (058) (039)

57 173 174 186 206 185 163 174 165 179 199 202 204 095 113 095 113 240 264 251 239

58 076 087 072 084 039 077 056 072 (005) 026 004 024 008 (004) (018) (002) (056) (058) (067) (061)

59 (072) (037) (056) (072) 059 073 063 057 048 051 060 051 074 102 100 080 033 037 022 034

60 (109) (093) (104) (106) (170) (175) (156) (156) (192) (185) (165) (178) (238) (234) (237) (243) (122) (127) (109) (150)

61 044 048 032 047 104 106 096 106 063 077 086 081 102 092 089 080 079 079 059 054

62 (105) (101) (086) (094) 009 (006) (009) (007) (027) (025) (023) (025) 026 015 030 041 (161) (157) (166) (184)

63 (095) (103) (105) (122) (077) (072) (095) (081) (123) (108) (120) (115) (077) (075) (081) (075) 020 018 028 018

64 (079) (070) (083) (086) 074 070 060 069 062 065 077 059 121 103 119 133 016 011 (005) 017

65 096 093 106 097 146 131 129 142 147 140 150 146 169 166 156 154 176 197 186 175

66 (049) (046) (037) (042) (084) (088) (081) (084) (110) (125) (112) (120) (149) (140) (151) (124) (042) (051) (064) (085)

67 061 045 052 064 096 126 115 098 107 100 105 103 157 142 150 155 009 034 031 029

68 (085) (114) (100) (117) (180) (194) (192) (178) (165) (186) (182) (184) (135) (123) (134) (140) (131) (134) (116) (157)

69 (084) (062) (057) (060) (071) (050) (052) (053) (104) (110) (109) (100) 028 002 031 008 (003) (012) (008) (004)

70 (002) 011 007 002 058 065 058 057 042 027 035 034 069 050 045 037 066 076 106 097

71 023 024 035 027 075 066 071 081 095 084 089 077 039 040 032 039 076 096 076 076

72 (005) (026) (008) (013) 061 048 062 036 027 026 034 017 121 143 116 129 (056) (025) (024) (015)

73 048 050 056 053 118 111 110 109 097 090 099 083 203 196 178 200 072 102 084 074

74 (119) (122) (110) (137) (040) (041) (045) (036) (033) (031) (018) (030) (071) (076) (086) (093) (044) (057) (050) (028)

75 114 095 103 110 098 087 111 092 026 041 026 023 109 106 108 120 027 029 017 023

76 057 048 022 022 085 080 076 090 086 072 090 077 167 169 163 169 098 084 086 103

77 190 171 152 155 112 132 124 105 111 085 105 108 040 053 065 059 046 074 069 075

78 077 059 048 077 080 079 090 080 111 120 103 119 089 077 070 073 059 064 042 045

79 118 100 116 107 005 (002) 006 011 010 031 016 013 (033) (034) (056) (059) 046 050 062 058

80 033 017 045 032 047 053 045 050 (010) 004 (012) (001) 066 093 082 077 045 034 044 048

81 182 197 190 205 085 101 107 099 114 122 103 125 081 073 071 071 197 192 209 220

82 076 081 062 078 (080) (086) (091) (084) (093) (085) (087) (086) (006) (014) (000) 009 082 069 074 061

83 156 153 147 166 006 (004) 020 003 (019) (018) (026) (025) (052) (052) (037) (048) (178) (171) (159) (160)

84 017 (010) (000) 003 048 058 066 040 042 051 037 048 020 052 037 030 006 006 (001) (000)

85 006 007 006 (000) 009 (020) (017) (013) 010 005 007 023 (045) (064) (063) (069) (131) (148) (138) (135)

86 078 080 076 077 162 150 131 145 144 154 144 151 281 273 262 269 091 085 107 097

87 (034) (019) (010) (011) (080) (060) (085) (074) (086) (087) (093) (097) (024) (034) (033) (036) (001) 001 010 017

88 (070) (046) (064) (058) (028) (040) (049) (046) (009) 005 (021) (021) 038 056 036 033 (045) (052) (050) (073)

89 (031) (037) (025) (013) (099) (097) (094) (098) (097) (107) (096) (084) (158) (167) (144) (163) (221) (230) (232) (238)

90 123 130 136 128 057 060 088 099 103 109 105 089 112 116 115 112 133 118 133 122

91 (146) (126) (133) (132) (037) (026) (029) (035) (010) (020) (038) (029) 000 (024) (020) (022) 059 068 077 069

92 (001) 007 (009) 018 (073) (053) (058) (058) (065) (078) (068) (070) (048) (052) (051) (052) (112) (143) (127) (123)

93 (226) (202) (225) (216) (056) (079) (073) (055) (020) (046) (045) (052) (011) (017) (014) (016) 027 021 039 037

94 (131) (113) (112) (115) (025) (019) (023) (024) (021) (013) (037) (047) (034) (005) (048) (023) (037) (042) (041) (042)

95 (087) (084) (091) (090) 066 068 041 072 116 108 119 121 152 144 136 136 152 180 159 168

96 (042) (035) (040) (038) (018) (001) (010) (018) 011 004 025 008 031 040 035 039 (011) (013) (012) (022)

97 (151) (157) (167) (162) (122) (147) (143) (134) (141) (132) (114) (134) (093) (074) (093) (093) (108) (119) (109) (132)

98 096 101 091 109 097 102 101 107 070 074 071 040 097 098 089 099 (062) (089) (089) (077)

99 033 028 029 021 (008) (017) (022) (009) (001) (010) 018 (002) 027 008 007 033 (038) (031) (030) (006)

100 (055) (051) (066) (067) 011 011 029 005 018 022 034 038 091 085 091 088 073 071 087 075

Price Simulations




Mean 020 021 022 023 573 573 573 573 6227 6227 6227 6227 224 224 224 224 1878 1878 1878 1878

Volatility 070 070 070 070 048 048 048 048 069 069 069 069 037 037 037 037 032 032 032 032

Time 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100

Simulated

5 011 009 007 006 407 327 289 267 3441 2649 2197 1553 165 147 131 120 1348 1197 1063 958

95 035 041 046 053 792 849 927 1028 10040 12591 13844 14919 295 320 360 373 2540 2843 3160 3469

Std Dev 007 010 012 016 135 186 238 270 2100 3074 3713 4521 044 062 077 091 339 493 596 707

1 013 012 011 009 497 415 414 379 5566 5460 4956 4077 238 249 243 227 2014 2054 1994 2024

2 021 018 018 018 538 515 500 489 5231 5090 4596 4623 223 220 231 203 1613 1450 1451 1409

3 010 008 007 006 446 413 362 318 4810 4104 3705 3050 217 227 218 212 1520 1456 1268 1213

4 012 010 009 008 499 466 440 399 4679 4289 4175 3630 227 222 202 207 1564 1407 1328 1321

5 014 012 014 010 479 493 416 361 5031 4209 3839 3683 225 222 228 236 1494 1374 1259 1205

6 025 028 028 035 774 786 849 960 8847 8937 10590 13150 263 285 280 313 2148 2332 2371 2513

7 021 024 023 025 704 782 813 827 9526 10396 11149 12151 277 296 312 350 1785 1741 1742 1729

8 015 015 012 011 534 484 458 411 5691 5348 5296 5469 186 179 154 161 2101 2134 2257 2146

9 017 017 016 015 434 352 335 309 3687 2659 2208 1557 167 147 126 120 1507 1377 1248 1173

10 029 033 037 040 417 389 337 296 4868 4408 3809 3401 181 167 143 145 1538 1394 1279 1158

11 011 008 006 005 449 408 354 334 4758 3935 3524 3236 195 191 176 153 1871 1777 1795 1751

12 020 020 022 023 665 668 712 637 9215 11363 13842 14327 222 215 215 184 1873 1818 1809 1839

13 021 021 020 023 783 842 842 907 8811 9563 8686 9220 246 234 246 254 2124 2197 2307 2336

14 016 014 012 011 603 590 570 649 6301 6010 5819 5771 221 210 220 213 2139 2281 2226 2447

15 025 029 032 034 680 714 712 755 8168 8424 9094 8582 269 290 309 299 1998 1996 1966 1927

16 023 026 023 027 735 805 871 836 7317 8319 8599 9260 256 267 265 313 2153 2255 2268 2233

17 016 015 014 013 706 792 871 828 9457 9496 9557 11733 234 246 232 254 1799 1710 1649 1544

18 021 024 021 021 643 705 699 679 7545 8706 7888 7960 234 236 232 234 1795 1682 1688 1643

19 017 016 016 015 791 795 881 1053 10420 12831 14842 14880 276 294 302 301 2645 3061 3158 3517

20 012 009 008 008 545 525 532 483 4964 4978 4418 3734 252 246 240 242 1773 1793 1792 1550

21 026 028 031 033 980 1173 1531 1623 12934 17045 20568 25587 356 432 504 555 2168 2201 2225 2430

22 022 024 022 024 539 489 513 474 5323 4839 4078 3974 207 195 204 187 1525 1374 1241 1160

23 016 015 014 011 529 506 495 414 5761 6103 5365 4695 208 203 199 201 2090 2095 2089 2103

24 025 028 027 033 889 1039 1216 1304 11617 15334 16748 19296 285 288 321 318 2559 2842 3200 3467

25 022 022 023 024 617 614 641 661 7381 7741 7734 7355 201 183 181 167 1952 1996 2017 1982

26 030 040 036 047 638 646 611 644 7631 8381 7592 8300 200 186 176 173 1881 1847 1746 1805

27 015 014 012 013 505 465 422 433 6111 5940 5338 4822 170 152 131 134 1540 1373 1368 1291

28 016 013 012 012 466 437 425 368 4837 4339 3786 3072 208 203 201 172 1790 1811 1739 1686

29 011 008 006 006 422 348 290 276 4695 3992 3213 2735 174 165 142 131 1689 1645 1658 1518

30 017 016 015 014 548 513 485 504 6066 6050 5382 5314 221 227 218 204 1640 1495 1485 1375

31 016 014 013 013 551 524 504 420 5722 4948 4442 4039 196 175 162 159 2100 2133 2163 2368

32 029 030 034 038 498 443 395 349 4147 3298 2974 2512 194 179 169 151 1517 1360 1312 1209

33 023 024 027 029 678 695 724 732 7868 8230 8443 8449 255 275 265 294 2745 3142 3492 3808

34 035 040 049 054 782 843 925 979 7755 7821 8166 8865 288 307 344 334 1997 2059 2095 2239

35 012 010 009 008 551 532 565 488 6985 7363 6872 6115 212 219 201 204 1956 2033 1866 1858

36 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238

37 018 016 015 015 431 389 338 303 4107 3434 3157 2520 187 171 151 142 1348 1200 1067 959

38 025 028 030 029 581 611 525 547 5830 4962 4681 4374 253 261 269 270 2207 2307 2331 2511

39 022 024 024 027 682 674 703 690 6289 6707 6188 5735 233 249 244 250 2093 2091 2235 2335

40 025 030 035 033 768 823 834 969 10134 12586 13876 15668 292 311 371 392 2352 2714 2751 2883

41 025 030 027 031 709 722 813 858 8066 8128 9075 8288 271 290 305 319 1724 1582 1602 1558

42 012 010 008 006 296 216 169 151 2310 1435 986 771 150 121 109 090 1253 1054 940 789

43 018 017 016 014 708 740 776 888 8939 10641 10054 10632 273 289 295 316 1937 1932 1994 1938

44 016 014 014 014 417 358 318 288 4373 3420 2897 2543 179 161 145 128 1837 1849 1811 1783

45 024 026 026 026 468 423 393 370 4820 3878 3436 2825 208 203 188 169 1724 1672 1721 1691

46 019 020 020 019 576 637 610 610 6533 6598 6666 6786 204 207 181 181 1946 1988 2078 1928

47 008 005 004 004 308 247 192 177 2637 1898 1408 972 133 105 086 075 1126 925 815 739

48 031 036 038 043 681 774 787 860 5782 6008 6054 5691 259 262 265 272 1842 1834 1805 1657

49 015 015 013 014 588 581 590 582 7612 9229 8377 8573 202 190 182 178 1837 1833 1815 1762

50 016 014 012 010 409 346 296 273 3448 2728 2433 1680 165 158 139 134 1336 1151 989 956

51 022 021 024 022 631 654 628 656 6512 6238 6863 5733 235 237 228 245 2106 2188 2174 2310

52 014 013 011 011 544 544 491 505 6007 5243 4823 4922 188 177 166 155 1851 1899 1771 1806

53 017 016 016 014 796 919 1029 1080 10035 12687 12587 16905 290 319 368 353 2432 2804 2919 3292

54 036 045 051 053 751 805 954 911 7050 7643 7510 7316 268 283 290 317 2151 2212 2363 2417

55 012 009 008 006 353 282 228 208 3268 2446 1989 1481 157 129 112 111 1155 968 849 685

56 016 014 013 014 465 409 371 337 4004 3018 2627 2306 213 212 214 195 1723 1644 1539 1573

57 035 044 057 076 868 941 1085 1127 10866 14632 17431 20089 263 292 289 318 2723 3330 3618 3836

58 025 029 028 032 611 702 664 720 5773 6288 5346 5787 224 215 201 208 1695 1604 1501 1466

59 015 015 013 011 641 694 682 672 6932 7099 7472 6962 253 283 294 282 1955 1988 1919 1987

60 013 012 010 009 370 298 275 241 3023 2238 1947 1441 142 117 100 085 1524 1373 1335 1103

61 022 024 022 025 715 776 784 849 7281 8061 8721 8562 266 276 283 281 2104 2187 2130 2121

62 013 011 011 009 569 530 507 493 5343 4890 4534 4122 232 225 235 244 1432 1283 1141 991

63 013 011 010 008 463 424 354 346 3838 3269 2540 2223 192 178 165 159 1915 1908 1952 1890

64 014 013 011 010 665 685 674 711 7254 7577 8242 7389 276 284 312 343 1902 1877 1784 1881

65 026 029 035 036 791 844 898 1008 9727 10940 12787 13483 301 335 351 371 2458 2857 3022 3126

66 016 015 015 013 456 401 376 341 4018 3011 2673 2147 167 150 131 133 1735 1631 1514 1358

67 023 023 025 028 701 829 848 816 8495 9001 9754 9979 295 315 344 372 1881 1975 1968 1960

68 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081

69 014 014 013 012 469 456 424 396 4095 3235 2716 2469 232 218 235 215 1846 1783 1769 1759

70 019 020 019 018 640 674 670 672 6785 6304 6419 6186 250 247 247 241 2062 2175 2421 2430

71 020 021 023 022 667 677 707 752 8146 8325 8879 8341 237 241 236 242 2093 2275 2232 2274

72 019 016 017 016 645 637 681 608 6432 6267 6364 5536 276 315 309 338 1695 1730 1689 1702

73 022 024 026 026 738 788 831 860 8206 8564 9419 8704 321 362 377 440 2082 2305 2281 2263

74 012 010 009 007 506 470 436 431 5243 4758 4687 3999 194 178 162 148 1729 1608 1574 1632

75 028 030 034 039 705 726 835 795 6408 6759 6094 5739 270 286 301 326 1937 1954 1896 1922

76 023 024 021 021 682 710 721 788 7888 7858 8900 8340 300 338 360 392 2170 2212 2295 2479

77 037 043 046 053 728 846 879 845 8603 8376 9776 10368 237 249 263 261 1994 2163 2185 2264

78 025 025 024 031 675 707 764 751 8609 9940 9632 11128 260 266 267 275 2037 2116 2033 2058

79 028 030 037 038 563 538 538 539 6069 6428 5732 5382 207 198 178 169 1997 2051 2146 2150

80 021 020 024 023 624 649 634 649 5664 5628 4862 4865 249 276 277 279 1991 1978 2042 2079

81 036 049 058 075 682 763 821 821 8688 10002 9662 11595 256 263 267 272 2539 2827 3224 3603

82 025 028 027 031 459 404 360 341 4251 3653 3090 2716 218 209 213 217 2113 2139 2220 2171

83 032 040 045 058 565 534 572 519 5492 5063 4457 4135 200 189 189 176 1395 1244 1164 1068

84 020 018 018 018 624 658 693 620 6792 7087 6486 6822 229 248 240 235 1872 1857 1800 1782

85 019 019 019 018 568 505 491 479 6077 5656 5435 5757 203 183 174 162 1503 1310 1234 1158

86 025 028 029 031 822 902 905 1027 9657 11730 12287 13947 371 443 494 567 2146 2219 2432 2437

87 017 017 017 017 459 442 370 359 4358 3610 2995 2507 211 198 192 184 1850 1834 1860 1886

88 015 015 012 012 521 472 428 410 5694 5653 4597 4234 237 251 240 237 1725 1626 1572 1414

89 017 015 016 016 439 390 356 319 4202 3278 2938 2741 165 140 135 115 1302 1087 949 834

90 029 035 042 044 638 663 758 822 8360 9427 9758 9092 272 294 308 317 2294 2392 2612 2639

91 011 010 008 007 510 496 467 432 5667 5025 4150 4024 221 204 200 193 2037 2135 2235 2228

92 019 019 017 020 468 452 412 386 4681 3784 3476 3030 202 189 181 173 1550 1325 1272 1204

93 009 007 005 004 487 414 388 392 5470 4414 3990 3422 216 208 204 197 1936 1918 2013 2008

94 012 011 009 008 525 506 477 455 5461 5197 4182 3541 207 214 183 193 1749 1664 1613 1559

95 014 012 011 010 653 681 623 720 8745 9344 10628 11302 292 316 329 347 2366 2750 2806 3056

96 016 016 014 014 534 539 504 468 6087 5637 6034 5187 234 241 239 242 1821 1777 1749 1662

97 011 009 007 006 416 329 290 268 3611 2898 2629 1945 186 179 158 148 1560 1397 1335 1168

98 026 031 032 038 703 764 801 853 7465 7940 7971 6489 264 280 283 303 1679 1496 1411 1393

99 021 021 022 021 546 510 479 489 5851 5276 5787 4832 232 222 218 237 1745 1706 1664 1748

100 016 014 012 011 571 562 594 523 6238 6149 6375 6392 261 271 285 290 2084 2148 2302 2267

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2

3 3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1

1

185947613236 209700016612 381289955056 113496909508 105940968217

261410846662 278202957602 636440926272 159777507841 164064511715

340758878594 374684278258 761658671012 238893166595 230844682326

456070302878 505106365162 869191059145 27405034829 302394276185

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4







1







Sugar ($lbs) $ 020 70 $ 021 70 $ 022 70 $ 023 70 Sales 2069 2069 2069 - 0 2069 2069 - 0



Diesel ($gal) $ 224 37 $ 224 37 $ 224 37 $ 224 37 Sugar 119 58 58 - 0 311 311 - 0


Electricity 249 87 87 - 0 381 381 - 0


Aluminum 131 91 91 - 0 248 248 - 0


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total COGS 1372 930 930 - 0 1936 1936 - 0




Diesel (gal) 160 168 176 185



Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4


Sales price ($) 015 015 015 015



Hedge Selection

Futures

Sugar No

Natural gas No

Electricity No

Diesel No

Aluminum No








Global Risk Center
























8

12

10

6

4

2

0

14


1987 1991 1995 2003 20111999 2007

Crude Oil

Copper

Wheat




CAUSE DESCRIPTION






















GOVERNANCE









GOVERNANCE


INFRASTRUCTURE


ANALYTICS



INFRASTRUCTURE
















ANALYTICS










ThINK LIKE A TRADER































































GROSS EXPOSURE


NET EXPOSURE


Source Oliver Wyman












suppliers


risk exposure
















CONCLUSION










ABOUT THE AUTHORS

MICHAEL J DENTON






ALEX WITTENBERG










wwwoliverwymancom




MIChAEL J DENTON


ALEx WITTENBERG


BRIAN T KALISh


Oliver Wyman
File Attachment

intRoduCtion









Output prices



COMPANY





Input prices





















5 NET EXPOSURE

4 RISK MANAGEMENT

PORTFOLIO

3 GROSS EXPOSURE


PURCHASE VOLUMES

1 COMMODITY PRICE

PROJECTIONS

STEPS

























may evolve





















time horizon


ReadMe


Interface

Interface

REF
1

Cmdy Price Proj

Invisible
Grey
Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
124418764137
1367693617635
2648580611483
786217932233
803244438443
5605736599794
124418764137
4238042982159
1367693617635
1589462370676
2648580611483
803244438443
786217932233
0
803244438443

Correlations

5
95
Mean
Sugar
01107087317
03452715728
02
00854552129
04050827214
021
00695646039
04616729635
022
0061034605
05340468686
023


Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum

Gross Exposure

REF
EPS-at-risk
1

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

REF
EBITDA
1


Diesel
Electricity
Natural gas
Crude oil
Price change
EPS impact
Invisible
Grey
Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
1912572265773
1138117311849
1319658025171
11406289411
1162397994146
3734236225276
1912572265773
2596118913427
1138117311849
1276460888256
1319658025171
1162397994146
11406289411
0
1162397994146
5
95
Mean
Natural Gas
40688610903
79154680028
57310928297
32742030186
84855775584
57310928297
28887025303
92658501718
57310928297
26679947564
10281600624
57310928297

Net Exposure

5
95
Mean
Electricity
344141498094
1003995388957
622705433902
264877650618
1259146360173
622705433902
219723962528
1384358671012
6227
15528763279
1491896493046
622705433902

Fin Statement

5
95
Mean
Diesel
16508189205
29538139317
22444582473
14672697038
31955148416
22444582473
13074767002
36018057848
22444582473
11953891033
37258114813
22444582473


5
95
Mean
Aluminum
134769028369
254013105136
1878
119721652401
284279599425
187771063122
106347176349
316018108859
187771063122
95839609124
346925945325
187771063122

Graph support

Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
128
96
1
16
16
134
101
1
168
17
141
106
1
176
18
150
111
1
185
19

95ile
5ile
Earnings statement
-161353539101
1326569803377
611516334878
-421367106558
1798147036403
760774397443
-642177203637
2144399264928
918591594906
-1050874848209
2521161989213
1080153466317





Oliver Wyman
File Attachment









elasticity analysis






























































c Financial hedging



power to recover


revenue management



cost management



structured deals


capacity here)


integration eg


retail trading

examPle strategies


mechanisms (across


product portfolio)



purchase contracts









limit downside


with contracts with


underlying exposure





contribute greatest




to customers


earnings certainty




to supplier under

certain structures



and volatility






risk exposure


products or move to



product price



for risk sharing

bull need to find

receptive suppliers





cross-hedging



for joint ventures

or acquisitions


complexity


step 5 net exposuRe








the organization

























earnings profile






individual bu level


of probability








on earningsrdquo


ConClusion













other commodities






















wwwoliverwymancom


AuthoRs






Invisible 5606 4238 1589 803 00

Grey 1244 1368 2649 786 803

Sugar 1244 186 261 341 456 1244

Natural gas 1368 210 278 375 505 1368

Electricity 2649 381 636 762 869 2649

Diesel 786 113 160 239 274 786

Aluminum 803 106 164 231 302 803


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sugar 12800 13400 14100 15000

Natural gas 960 1010 1060 1110


Diesel 1600 1680 1760 1850

Aluminum 160 170 180 190



Invisible 3734 2596 1276 1162 00

Grey 1913 1138 1320 114 1162

Sugar 1913 207 404 530 771 1913

Natural gas 1138 168 250 348 372 1138

Electricity 1320 221 266 331 502 1320

Diesel 114 26 39 12 38 114

Aluminum 1162 151 223 340 448 1162


Cost (95)



Sugar 463 686 840 1116 463 686 840 1116 3105


Price 036 051 060 074

Natural gas 718 829 956 1008 718 829 956 1008 3511

Volume 96 101 106 111 718 829 956 1008 3511 Unhedged

Price 75 82 90 91

Electricity 844 888 953 1125 844 888 953 1125 3810

Volume 10 10 10 10 844 888 953 1125 3810 Unhedged

Price 844 888 953 1125

Diesel 385 416 407 453 385 416 407 453 1660

Volume 160 168 176 185 385 416 407 453 1660 Unhedged

Price 24 25 23 24

Aluminum 451 543 678 805 451 543 678 805 2477

Volume 16 17 18 19 451 543 678 805 2476841735006 Unhedged

Price 282 319 377 424

Total 2861 3361 3834 4507 2861 3361 3834 4507 14564

2861 3361 3834 4507 14563772697504 Unhedged

Cost (5)



Sugar 179 142 141 119 179 142 141 119 581


Price 014 011 010 008

Natural gas 347 283 251 241 347 283 251 241 1123

Volume 96 101 106 111 347 283 251 241 1123 Unhedged

Price 36 28 24 22

Electricity 332 223 176 138 332 223 176 138 868

Volume 10 10 10 10 332 223 176 138 868 Unhedged

Price 332 223 176 138

Diesel 275 264 244 231 275 264 244 231 1015

Volume 160 168 176 185 275 264 244 231 1015 Unhedged

Price 17 16 14 12

Aluminum 241 230 236 205 241 230 236 205 911

Volume 16 17 18 19 241 230 236 205 911127595797 Unhedged

Price 150 135 131 108

Total 1373 1142 1048 935 1373 1142 1048 935 4498

95ile 5ile

Sales 480 504 529 556 480 504 529 556

Fixed Costs 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

Variable Costs 286 336 383 451 137 114 105 93


EBITDA (16) (42) (64) (105) 133 180 214 252


[Optional comments]



































































































Earnings statement


Sales 48000 50400 52920 55560 206880

Volume 320000 336000 352800 370400 1379200

Price ($) 015 015 015 015

000


Fixed Costs 12000 12000 12000 12000 48000

Sugar ($lbs) 2560 2814 3102 3450 11926

Volume (lbs) 12800 13400 14100 15000

Price 020 021 022 023

000


Volume 960 1010 1060 1110

Price 573 573 573 573

000


Volume 100 100 100 100

Price 6227 6227 6227 6227

000


Volume 1600 1680 1760 1850

Price 224 224 224 224

000

Aluminum 3005 3192 3380 3568 13144

Volume 160 170 180 190

Price 1878 1878 1878 1878

Variable Costs 20885 21792 22734 23758 89170

000


000

EBITDA 6115 7608 9186 10802 33710

Impact of hedging


Futures Used

Sugar No

Natural gas No

Electricity No

Diesel No

Aluminum No

Net exposure (95)



Sugar 463 686 840 1116 207 404 530 771 1913

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500

Price 036 051 060 074

00 00 00 00 00

Natural gas 718 829 956 1008 168 250 348 372 1138

Volume 96 101 106 111

Price 75 82 90 91

00 00 00 00 00

Electricity 844 888 953 1125 221 266 331 502 1320

Volume 10 10 10 10

Price 844 888 953 1125

00 00 00 00 00

Diesel 385 416 407 453 26 39 12 38 114

Volume 160 168 176 185

Price 24 25 23 24

00 00 00 00 00

Aluminum 451 543 678 805 151 223 340 448 1162

Volume 16 17 18 19

Price 282 319 377 424

Total 2861 3361 3834 4507 773 1182 1561 2131 5647





Mean 020 021 022 023 573 573 573 573 6227 6227 6227 6227 224 224 224 224 1878 1878 1878 1878

Volatility 070 070 070 070 048 048 048 048 069 069 069 069 037 037 037 037 032 032 032 032

Time 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100

Volume 12800 13400 14100 15000 960 1010 1060 1110 100 100 100 100 1600 1680 1760 1850 160 170 180 190

Simulated

5 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081 48715

95 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238 145722

Std Dev 007 010 012 016 135 186 238 270 2100 3074 3713 4521 044 062 077 091 339 493 596 707

Mean


32380 47 008 005 004 004 308 247 192 177 2637 1898 1408 972 133 105 086 075 1126 925 815 739 32380

33948 42 012 010 008 006 296 216 169 151 2310 1435 986 771 150 121 109 090 1253 1054 940 789 33948

39948 55 012 009 008 006 353 282 228 208 3268 2446 1989 1481 157 129 112 111 1155 968 849 685 39948

43542 60 013 012 010 009 370 298 275 241 3023 2238 1947 1441 142 117 100 085 1524 1373 1335 1103 43542

44977 68 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081 44977

48911 50 016 014 012 010 409 346 296 273 3448 2728 2433 1680 165 158 139 134 1336 1151 989 956 48911

49824 97 011 009 007 006 416 329 290 268 3611 2898 2629 1945 186 179 158 148 1560 1397 1335 1168 49824

52614 9 017 017 016 015 434 352 335 309 3687 2659 2208 1557 167 147 126 120 1507 1377 1248 1173 52614

54247 89 017 015 016 016 439 390 356 319 4202 3278 2938 2741 165 140 135 115 1302 1087 949 834 54247

54467 29 011 008 006 006 422 348 290 276 4695 3992 3213 2735 174 165 142 131 1689 1645 1658 1518 54467

56081 37 018 016 015 015 431 389 338 303 4107 3434 3157 2520 187 171 151 142 1348 1200 1067 959 56081

56950 66 016 015 015 013 456 401 376 341 4018 3011 2673 2147 167 150 131 133 1735 1631 1514 1358 56950

58740 44 016 014 014 014 417 358 318 288 4373 3420 2897 2543 179 161 145 128 1837 1849 1811 1783 58740

59233 63 013 011 010 008 463 424 354 346 3838 3269 2540 2223 192 178 165 159 1915 1908 1952 1890 59233

60239 11 011 008 006 005 449 408 354 334 4758 3935 3524 3236 195 191 176 153 1871 1777 1795 1751 60239

60316 3 010 008 007 006 446 413 362 318 4810 4104 3705 3050 217 227 218 212 1520 1456 1268 1213 60316

61664 56 016 014 013 014 465 409 371 337 4004 3018 2627 2306 213 212 214 195 1723 1644 1539 1573 61664

65269 4 012 010 009 008 499 466 440 399 4679 4289 4175 3630 227 222 202 207 1564 1407 1328 1321 65269

65273 92 019 019 017 020 468 452 412 386 4681 3784 3476 3030 202 189 181 173 1550 1325 1272 1204 65273

65764 69 014 014 013 012 469 456 424 396 4095 3235 2716 2469 232 218 235 215 1846 1783 1769 1759 65764

65876 93 009 007 005 004 487 414 388 392 5470 4414 3990 3422 216 208 204 197 1936 1918 2013 2008 65876

66078 87 017 017 017 017 459 442 370 359 4358 3610 2995 2507 211 198 192 184 1850 1834 1860 1886 66078

66116 74 012 010 009 007 506 470 436 431 5243 4758 4687 3999 194 178 162 148 1729 1608 1574 1632 66116

66562 28 016 013 012 012 466 437 425 368 4837 4339 3786 3072 208 203 201 172 1790 1811 1739 1686 66562

66781 5 014 012 014 010 479 493 416 361 5031 4209 3839 3683 225 222 228 236 1494 1374 1259 1205 66781

68244 27 015 014 012 013 505 465 422 433 6111 5940 5338 4822 170 152 131 134 1540 1373 1368 1291 68244

69290 94 012 011 009 008 525 506 477 455 5461 5197 4182 3541 207 214 183 193 1749 1664 1613 1559 69290

69701 32 029 030 034 038 498 443 395 349 4147 3298 2974 2512 194 179 169 151 1517 1360 1312 1209 69701

70796 10 029 033 037 040 417 389 337 296 4868 4408 3809 3401 181 167 143 145 1538 1394 1279 1158 70796

71222 62 013 011 011 009 569 530 507 493 5343 4890 4534 4122 232 225 235 244 1432 1283 1141 991 71222

71261 45 024 026 026 026 468 423 393 370 4820 3878 3436 2825 208 203 188 169 1724 1672 1721 1691 71261

72702 91 011 010 008 007 510 496 467 432 5667 5025 4150 4024 221 204 200 193 2037 2135 2235 2228 72702

73734 20 012 009 008 008 545 525 532 483 4964 4978 4418 3734 252 246 240 242 1773 1793 1792 1550 73734

73801 52 014 013 011 011 544 544 491 505 6007 5243 4823 4922 188 177 166 155 1851 1899 1771 1806 73801

74108 88 015 015 012 012 521 472 428 410 5694 5653 4597 4234 237 251 240 237 1725 1626 1572 1414 74108

74317 1 013 012 011 009 497 415 414 379 5566 5460 4956 4077 238 249 243 227 2014 2054 1994 2024 74317

74660 22 022 024 022 024 539 489 513 474 5323 4839 4078 3974 207 195 204 187 1525 1374 1241 1160 74660

74808 31 016 014 013 013 551 524 504 420 5722 4948 4442 4039 196 175 162 159 2100 2133 2163 2368 74808

74998 82 025 028 027 031 459 404 360 341 4251 3653 3090 2716 218 209 213 217 2113 2139 2220 2171 74998

75350 8 015 015 012 011 534 484 458 411 5691 5348 5296 5469 186 179 154 161 2101 2134 2257 2146 75350

75850 85 019 019 019 018 568 505 491 479 6077 5656 5435 5757 203 183 174 162 1503 1310 1234 1158 75850

76270 2 021 018 018 018 538 515 500 489 5231 5090 4596 4623 223 220 231 203 1613 1450 1451 1409 76270

78037 30 017 016 015 014 548 513 485 504 6066 6050 5382 5314 221 227 218 204 1640 1495 1485 1375 78037

78226 23 016 015 014 011 529 506 495 414 5761 6103 5365 4695 208 203 199 201 2090 2095 2089 2103 78226

81022 96 016 016 014 014 534 539 504 468 6087 5637 6034 5187 234 241 239 242 1821 1777 1749 1662 81022

82068 99 021 021 022 021 546 510 479 489 5851 5276 5787 4832 232 222 218 237 1745 1706 1664 1748 82068

82643 35 012 010 009 008 551 532 565 488 6985 7363 6872 6115 212 219 201 204 1956 2033 1866 1858 82643

87060 14 016 014 012 011 603 590 570 649 6301 6010 5819 5771 221 210 220 213 2139 2281 2226 2447 87060

87614 83 032 040 045 058 565 534 572 519 5492 5063 4457 4135 200 189 189 176 1395 1244 1164 1068 87614

89614 46 019 020 020 019 576 637 610 610 6533 6598 6666 6786 204 207 181 181 1946 1988 2078 1928 89614

90297 100 016 014 012 011 571 562 594 523 6238 6149 6375 6392 261 271 285 290 2084 2148 2302 2267 90297

91492 49 015 015 013 014 588 581 590 582 7612 9229 8377 8573 202 190 182 178 1837 1833 1815 1762 91492

92285 79 028 030 037 038 563 538 538 539 6069 6428 5732 5382 207 198 178 169 1997 2051 2146 2150 92285

92517 80 021 020 024 023 624 649 634 649 5664 5628 4862 4865 249 276 277 279 1991 1978 2042 2079 92517

92520 58 025 029 028 032 611 702 664 720 5773 6288 5346 5787 224 215 201 208 1695 1604 1501 1466 92520

93297 38 025 028 030 029 581 611 525 547 5830 4962 4681 4374 253 261 269 270 2207 2307 2331 2511 93297

93492 84 020 018 018 018 624 658 693 620 6792 7087 6486 6822 229 248 240 235 1872 1857 1800 1782 93492

94010 72 019 016 017 016 645 637 681 608 6432 6267 6364 5536 276 315 309 338 1695 1730 1689 1702 94010

95355 25 022 022 023 024 617 614 641 661 7381 7741 7734 7355 201 183 181 167 1952 1996 2017 1982 95355

95981 51 022 021 024 022 631 654 628 656 6512 6238 6863 5733 235 237 228 245 2106 2188 2174 2310 95981

96590 70 019 020 019 018 640 674 670 672 6785 6304 6419 6186 250 247 247 241 2062 2175 2421 2430 96590

96659 59 015 015 013 011 641 694 682 672 6932 7099 7472 6962 253 283 294 282 1955 1988 1919 1987 96659

98984 39 022 024 024 027 682 674 703 690 6289 6707 6188 5735 233 249 244 250 2093 2091 2235 2335 98984

99473 64 014 013 011 010 665 685 674 711 7254 7577 8242 7389 276 284 312 343 1902 1877 1784 1881 99473

100438 18 021 024 021 021 643 705 699 679 7545 8706 7888 7960 234 236 232 234 1795 1682 1688 1643 100438

104925 26 030 040 036 047 638 646 611 644 7631 8381 7592 8300 200 186 176 173 1881 1847 1746 1805 104925

106683 71 020 021 023 022 667 677 707 752 8146 8325 8879 8341 237 241 236 242 2093 2275 2232 2274 106683

107046 48 031 036 038 043 681 774 787 860 5782 6008 6054 5691 259 262 265 272 1842 1834 1805 1657 107046

108929 75 028 030 034 039 705 726 835 795 6408 6759 6094 5739 270 286 301 326 1937 1954 1896 1922 108929

109789 17 016 015 014 013 706 792 871 828 9457 9496 9557 11733 234 246 232 254 1799 1710 1649 1544 109789

109940 98 026 031 032 038 703 764 801 853 7465 7940 7971 6489 264 280 283 303 1679 1496 1411 1393 109940

111963 61 022 024 022 025 715 776 784 849 7281 8061 8721 8562 266 276 283 281 2104 2187 2130 2121 111963

113140 41 025 030 027 031 709 722 813 858 8066 8128 9075 8288 271 290 305 319 1724 1582 1602 1558 113140

114475 15 025 029 032 034 680 714 712 755 8168 8424 9094 8582 269 290 309 299 1998 1996 1966 1927 114475

115420 76 023 024 021 021 682 710 721 788 7888 7858 8900 8340 300 338 360 392 2170 2212 2295 2479 115420

115470 12 020 020 022 023 665 668 712 637 9215 11363 13842 14327 222 215 215 184 1873 1818 1809 1839 115470

115543 43 018 017 016 014 708 740 776 888 8939 10641 10054 10632 273 289 295 316 1937 1932 1994 1938 115543

115599 16 023 026 023 027 735 805 871 836 7317 8319 8599 9260 256 267 265 313 2153 2255 2268 2233 115599

115628 95 014 012 011 010 653 681 623 720 8745 9344 10628 11302 292 316 329 347 2366 2750 2806 3056 115628

115695 13 021 021 020 023 783 842 842 907 8811 9563 8686 9220 246 234 246 254 2124 2197 2307 2336 115695

116747 78 025 025 024 031 675 707 764 751 8609 9940 9632 11128 260 266 267 275 2037 2116 2033 2058 116747

118794 33 023 024 027 029 678 695 724 732 7868 8230 8443 8449 255 275 265 294 2745 3142 3492 3808 118794

120798 67 023 023 025 028 701 829 848 816 8495 9001 9754 9979 295 315 344 372 1881 1975 1968 1960 120798

122134 7 021 024 023 025 704 782 813 827 9526 10396 11149 12151 277 296 312 350 1785 1741 1742 1729 122134

123516 73 022 024 026 026 738 788 831 860 8206 8564 9419 8704 321 362 377 440 2082 2305 2281 2263 123516

125606 90 029 035 042 044 638 663 758 822 8360 9427 9758 9092 272 294 308 317 2294 2392 2612 2639 125606

126928 54 036 045 051 053 751 805 954 911 7050 7643 7510 7316 268 283 290 317 2151 2212 2363 2417 126928

128846 77 037 043 046 053 728 846 879 845 8603 8376 9776 10368 237 249 263 261 1994 2163 2185 2264 128846

128878 6 025 028 028 035 774 786 849 960 8847 8937 10590 13150 263 285 280 313 2148 2332 2371 2513 128878

130807 34 035 040 049 054 782 843 925 979 7755 7821 8166 8865 288 307 344 334 1997 2059 2095 2239 130807

140398 19 017 016 016 015 791 795 881 1053 10420 12831 14842 14880 276 294 302 301 2645 3061 3158 3517 140398

142414 81 036 049 058 075 682 763 821 821 8688 10002 9662 11595 256 263 267 272 2539 2827 3224 3603 142414

143917 53 017 016 016 014 796 919 1029 1080 10035 12687 12587 16905 290 319 368 353 2432 2804 2919 3292 143917

145005 65 026 029 035 036 791 844 898 1008 9727 10940 12787 13483 301 335 351 371 2458 2857 3022 3126 145005

145638 36 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238 145638

147330 40 025 030 035 033 768 823 834 969 10134 12586 13876 15668 292 311 371 392 2352 2714 2751 2883 147330

149955 86 025 028 029 031 822 902 905 1027 9657 11730 12287 13947 371 443 494 567 2146 2219 2432 2437 149955

167385 24 025 028 027 033 889 1039 1216 1304 11617 15334 16748 19296 285 288 321 318 2559 2842 3200 3467 167385

178469 57 035 044 057 076 868 941 1085 1127 10866 14632 17431 20089 263 292 289 318 2723 3330 3618 3836 178469

195830 21 026 028 031 033 980 1173 1531 1623 12934 17045 20568 25587 356 432 504 555 2168 2201 2225 2430 195830


Futures Description







Gross Exposure



Sugar 442 543 651 801 186 261 341 456 1244

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500

Price 035 041 046 053

00 00 00 00 00

Natural gas 760 857 982 1141 210 278 375 505 1368

Volume (MMBTU) 96 101 106 111

Price 792 849 927 1028

00 00 00 00 00

Electricity 1004 1259 1384 1492 381 636 762 869 2649

Volume (MWh) 10 10 10 10

Price 1004 1259 1384 1492

00 00 00 00 00

Diesel 473 537 634 689 113 160 239 274 786

Volume (gal) 160 168 176 185

Price 295 320 360 373

00 00 00 00 00

Aluminum 406 483 569 659 106 164 231 302 803


Price 2540 2843 3160 3469

Total 3085 3679 4220 4783 996 1500 1947 2407 6850



Sales 48000 50400 52920 55560 206880

Volume 320000 336000 352800 370400 1379200

Price ($) 015 015 015 015 016

000


Fixed Costs 12000 12000 12000 12000 48000

Sugar ($) 2560 2814 3102 3450 11926

Volume (lb) 12800 13400 14100 15000

($lb) 020 021 022 023

000

Natural gas ($) 5502 5788 6075 6362 23727

Volume (MMBTU) 960 1010 1060 1110

Price ($MMBTU) 573 573 573 573

000

Electricity ($) 6227 6227 6227 6227 24908

Volume 100 100 100 100

Price 6227 6227 6227 6227

000

Diesel ($l) 3591 3771 3950 4152 15464

Volume 1600 1680 1760 1850

Price 224 224 224 224

000

Aluminum ($) 3005 3192 3380 3568 13144

Volume 160 170 180 190

Price 1878 1878 1878 1878

Variable Costs 20885 21792 22734 23758 89170

Correlations




Sugar Q1 100 099 099 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q2 099 100 099 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q3 099 099 100 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q4 099 099 099 100 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Nat Gas Q1 065 065 065 065 100 099 099 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q2 065 065 065 065 099 100 099 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q3 065 065 065 065 099 099 100 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q4 065 065 065 065 099 099 099 100 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Electricity Q1 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 100 099 099 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q2 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 100 099 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q3 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 099 100 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q4 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 099 099 100 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Diesel Q1 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 100 099 099 099 066 066 066 066

Q2 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 100 099 099 066 066 066 066

Q3 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 099 100 099 066 066 066 066

Q4 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 099 099 100 066 066 066 066

Aluminum Q1 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 100 099 099 099

Q2 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 100 099 099

Q3 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 099 100 099

Q4 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 099 099 100





1 (108) (092) (082) (107) (047) (078) (057) (062) (015) (003) (008) (027) 041 052 041 022 052 051 036 039

2 031 (007) (006) (003) (015) (014) (012) (009) (033) (017) (021) (009) 005 005 026 (009) (087) (103) (079) (074)

3 (176) (167) (159) (155) (092) (079) (090) (098) (058) (061) (057) (069) (009) 018 007 002 (124) (101) (128) (121)

4 (134) (119) (112) (122) (046) (044) (043) (052) (066) (052) (037) (044) 016 009 (016) (003) (106) (116) (111) (094)

5 (075) (080) (049) (077) (063) (028) (057) (072) (045) (056) (051) (042) 011 010 021 032 (135) (127) (130) (123)

6 082 082 072 095 137 110 115 132 119 098 119 143 095 104 085 108 092 107 098 107

7 035 050 038 044 098 108 105 100 140 129 127 131 123 119 119 139 (024) (022) (013) (010)

8 (056) (044) (076) (066) (017) (033) (033) (045) (009) (007) 003 016 (091) (074) (102) (071) 078 068 080 058

9 (025) (015) (023) (027) (104) (127) (109) (105) (135) (150) (144) (166) (149) (148) (165) (151) (130) (126) (134) (131)

10 126 116 115 112 (120) (097) (107) (114) (054) (046) (052) (053) (107) (099) (125) (099) (117) (120) (125) (135)

11 (166) (182) (173) (174) (090) (083) (095) (089) (061) (070) (065) (060) (066) (048) (061) (084) 006 (013) (002) (006)

12 014 014 034 034 074 062 073 046 131 148 164 155 003 (003) 002 (035) 006 (003) 000 010

13 034 028 011 035 142 130 113 120 118 112 086 091 060 030 044 052 085 081 088 084

14 (048) (059) (063) (068) 033 026 020 050 021 017 019 023 001 (012) 009 005 089 097 075 099

15 079 091 090 091 083 082 073 081 096 086 093 081 107 112 115 096 047 038 030 024

16 058 071 034 059 116 117 122 103 064 084 084 092 081 080 068 108 093 092 082 070

17 (046) (041) (043) (048) 099 112 121 101 138 111 102 126 031 049 027 052 (019) (030) (033) (045)

18 030 052 025 024 060 078 068 059 073 093 069 070 031 033 026 030 (020) (037) (024) (026)

19 (034) (031) (025) (026) 146 114 124 151 166 173 175 161 121 116 108 097 222 227 201 212

20 (119) (138) (136) (114) (009) (009) 003 (012) (048) (021) (028) (040) 073 048 037 039 (028) (009) (003) (044)

21 092 081 085 085 236 228 257 241 229 231 230 239 259 264 269 263 098 082 075 097

22 047 052 031 042 (014) (030) (006) (016) (028) (027) (041) (031) (035) (040) (014) (031) (122) (127) (135) (134)

23 (043) (047) (046) (069) (021) (019) (014) (044) (005) 020 005 (006) (032) (025) (021) (012) 075 060 052 051

24 082 083 064 089 195 192 202 195 198 209 195 198 138 109 128 113 201 194 206 208

25 039 030 035 039 042 037 048 054 067 069 066 059 (050) (065) (051) (061) 032 038 040 033

26 130 157 113 138 057 052 036 048 076 085 063 076 (053) (058) (061) (052) 009 004 (012) 004

27 (063) (063) (067) (046) (041) (045) (053) (035) 012 015 004 (003) (140) (136) (152) (120) (116) (127) (101) (101)

28 (051) (067) (068) (058) (075) (063) (051) (068) (056) (050) (053) (068) (031) (025) (019) (053) (022) (005) (014) (018)

29 (165) (163) (176) (155) (115) (130) (143) (128) (065) (067) (081) (085) (128) (105) (126) (127) (058) (047) (031) (050)

30 (029) (031) (029) (032) (007) (016) (019) (003) 010 018 005 012 001 017 007 (007) (077) (089) (071) (081)

31 (040) (055) (058) (043) (004) (009) (010) (041) (007) (023) (027) (028) (065) (082) (086) (075) 078 068 065 089

32 123 098 102 105 (047) (059) (069) (079) (101) (106) (094) (097) (069) (074) (072) (089) (125) (131) (115) (122)

33 057 052 066 070 082 074 077 075 085 082 081 079 079 090 068 091 245 239 238 237

34 174 156 162 156 142 131 136 135 081 071 075 086 143 133 150 126 046 052 053 071

35 (121) (127) (111) (122) (004) (005) 018 (009) 051 059 046 032 (021) 003 (018) (008) 034 046 012 013

36 187 205 195 203 123 123 130 120 105 097 101 120 046 051 025 042 262 246 265 270

37 (019) (031) (029) (029) (106) (097) (106) (108) (103) (098) (084) (097) (090) (092) (107) (106) (199) (187) (190) (194)

38 080 080 081 069 018 036 (001) 014 (002) (022) (018) (017) 074 071 073 069 109 102 092 107

39 040 053 044 058 085 065 070 063 020 040 029 023 029 053 042 047 076 059 077 084

40 085 100 108 089 134 123 111 133 158 169 164 168 151 138 173 169 149 174 152 150

41 082 097 061 076 101 085 105 108 092 079 093 076 111 111 112 113 (045) (064) (044) (042)

42 (123) (134) (135) (147) (263) (271) (274) (254) (270) (276) (279) (268) (210) (223) (208) (227) (245) (244) (236) (255)

43 (016) (018) (018) (034) 100 092 094 115 122 134 110 112 115 109 102 111 027 024 035 026

44 (048) (052) (042) (035) (120) (122) (121) (119) (085) (098) (098) (095) (112) (115) (120) (132) (006) 005 001 (000)

45 069 067 059 054 (073) (073) (070) (067) (057) (073) (070) (080) (033) (026) (039) (057) (045) (040) (018) (017)

46 005 011 013 005 014 048 036 037 031 036 041 047 (043) (018) (052) (039) 030 037 050 024

47 (235) (256) (232) (222) (247) (231) (242) (221) (232) (219) (219) (235) (272) (277) (282) (278) (312) (301) (287) (275)

48 143 131 119 126 084 106 097 108 (004) 017 025 021 087 072 067 071 (004) 001 (000) (023)

49 (063) (045) (054) (035) 023 021 028 027 075 105 080 081 (048) (052) (049) (045) (006) 001 002 (004)

50 (055) (060) (066) (079) (129) (132) (138) (130) (154) (145) (127) (155) (157) (121) (133) (121) (205) (205) (217) (195)

51 039 028 044 031 052 056 043 052 030 025 046 023 035 034 022 042 079 079 067 081

52 (087) (075) (088) (067) (009) 002 (016) (002) 007 (011) (013) 000 (087) (077) (079) (081) (001) 016 (007) 004

53 (032) (024) (025) (035) 149 156 161 156 156 170 148 179 148 147 170 141 170 188 173 191

54 186 179 168 155 124 117 143 121 053 066 061 058 106 101 095 112 093 084 097 095

55 (135) (144) (137) (150) (190) (192) (201) (188) (170) (167) (161) (174) (185) (199) (201) (171) (296) (281) (273) (299)

56 (052) (051) (058) (040) (075) (083) (084) (087) (111) (124) (115) (109) (019) (009) 002 (019) (046) (047) (058) (039)

57 173 174 186 206 185 163 174 165 179 199 202 204 095 113 095 113 240 264 251 239

58 076 087 072 084 039 077 056 072 (005) 026 004 024 008 (004) (018) (002) (056) (058) (067) (061)

59 (072) (037) (056) (072) 059 073 063 057 048 051 060 051 074 102 100 080 033 037 022 034

60 (109) (093) (104) (106) (170) (175) (156) (156) (192) (185) (165) (178) (238) (234) (237) (243) (122) (127) (109) (150)

61 044 048 032 047 104 106 096 106 063 077 086 081 102 092 089 080 079 079 059 054

62 (105) (101) (086) (094) 009 (006) (009) (007) (027) (025) (023) (025) 026 015 030 041 (161) (157) (166) (184)

63 (095) (103) (105) (122) (077) (072) (095) (081) (123) (108) (120) (115) (077) (075) (081) (075) 020 018 028 018

64 (079) (070) (083) (086) 074 070 060 069 062 065 077 059 121 103 119 133 016 011 (005) 017

65 096 093 106 097 146 131 129 142 147 140 150 146 169 166 156 154 176 197 186 175

66 (049) (046) (037) (042) (084) (088) (081) (084) (110) (125) (112) (120) (149) (140) (151) (124) (042) (051) (064) (085)

67 061 045 052 064 096 126 115 098 107 100 105 103 157 142 150 155 009 034 031 029

68 (085) (114) (100) (117) (180) (194) (192) (178) (165) (186) (182) (184) (135) (123) (134) (140) (131) (134) (116) (157)

69 (084) (062) (057) (060) (071) (050) (052) (053) (104) (110) (109) (100) 028 002 031 008 (003) (012) (008) (004)

70 (002) 011 007 002 058 065 058 057 042 027 035 034 069 050 045 037 066 076 106 097

71 023 024 035 027 075 066 071 081 095 084 089 077 039 040 032 039 076 096 076 076

72 (005) (026) (008) (013) 061 048 062 036 027 026 034 017 121 143 116 129 (056) (025) (024) (015)

73 048 050 056 053 118 111 110 109 097 090 099 083 203 196 178 200 072 102 084 074

74 (119) (122) (110) (137) (040) (041) (045) (036) (033) (031) (018) (030) (071) (076) (086) (093) (044) (057) (050) (028)

75 114 095 103 110 098 087 111 092 026 041 026 023 109 106 108 120 027 029 017 023

76 057 048 022 022 085 080 076 090 086 072 090 077 167 169 163 169 098 084 086 103

77 190 171 152 155 112 132 124 105 111 085 105 108 040 053 065 059 046 074 069 075

78 077 059 048 077 080 079 090 080 111 120 103 119 089 077 070 073 059 064 042 045

79 118 100 116 107 005 (002) 006 011 010 031 016 013 (033) (034) (056) (059) 046 050 062 058

80 033 017 045 032 047 053 045 050 (010) 004 (012) (001) 066 093 082 077 045 034 044 048

81 182 197 190 205 085 101 107 099 114 122 103 125 081 073 071 071 197 192 209 220

82 076 081 062 078 (080) (086) (091) (084) (093) (085) (087) (086) (006) (014) (000) 009 082 069 074 061

83 156 153 147 166 006 (004) 020 003 (019) (018) (026) (025) (052) (052) (037) (048) (178) (171) (159) (160)

84 017 (010) (000) 003 048 058 066 040 042 051 037 048 020 052 037 030 006 006 (001) (000)

85 006 007 006 (000) 009 (020) (017) (013) 010 005 007 023 (045) (064) (063) (069) (131) (148) (138) (135)

86 078 080 076 077 162 150 131 145 144 154 144 151 281 273 262 269 091 085 107 097

87 (034) (019) (010) (011) (080) (060) (085) (074) (086) (087) (093) (097) (024) (034) (033) (036) (001) 001 010 017

88 (070) (046) (064) (058) (028) (040) (049) (046) (009) 005 (021) (021) 038 056 036 033 (045) (052) (050) (073)

89 (031) (037) (025) (013) (099) (097) (094) (098) (097) (107) (096) (084) (158) (167) (144) (163) (221) (230) (232) (238)

90 123 130 136 128 057 060 088 099 103 109 105 089 112 116 115 112 133 118 133 122

91 (146) (126) (133) (132) (037) (026) (029) (035) (010) (020) (038) (029) 000 (024) (020) (022) 059 068 077 069

92 (001) 007 (009) 018 (073) (053) (058) (058) (065) (078) (068) (070) (048) (052) (051) (052) (112) (143) (127) (123)

93 (226) (202) (225) (216) (056) (079) (073) (055) (020) (046) (045) (052) (011) (017) (014) (016) 027 021 039 037

94 (131) (113) (112) (115) (025) (019) (023) (024) (021) (013) (037) (047) (034) (005) (048) (023) (037) (042) (041) (042)

95 (087) (084) (091) (090) 066 068 041 072 116 108 119 121 152 144 136 136 152 180 159 168

96 (042) (035) (040) (038) (018) (001) (010) (018) 011 004 025 008 031 040 035 039 (011) (013) (012) (022)

97 (151) (157) (167) (162) (122) (147) (143) (134) (141) (132) (114) (134) (093) (074) (093) (093) (108) (119) (109) (132)

98 096 101 091 109 097 102 101 107 070 074 071 040 097 098 089 099 (062) (089) (089) (077)

99 033 028 029 021 (008) (017) (022) (009) (001) (010) 018 (002) 027 008 007 033 (038) (031) (030) (006)

100 (055) (051) (066) (067) 011 011 029 005 018 022 034 038 091 085 091 088 073 071 087 075

Price Simulations




Mean 020 021 022 023 573 573 573 573 6227 6227 6227 6227 224 224 224 224 1878 1878 1878 1878

Volatility 070 070 070 070 048 048 048 048 069 069 069 069 037 037 037 037 032 032 032 032

Time 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100

Simulated

5 011 009 007 006 407 327 289 267 3441 2649 2197 1553 165 147 131 120 1348 1197 1063 958

95 035 041 046 053 792 849 927 1028 10040 12591 13844 14919 295 320 360 373 2540 2843 3160 3469

Std Dev 007 010 012 016 135 186 238 270 2100 3074 3713 4521 044 062 077 091 339 493 596 707

1 013 012 011 009 497 415 414 379 5566 5460 4956 4077 238 249 243 227 2014 2054 1994 2024

2 021 018 018 018 538 515 500 489 5231 5090 4596 4623 223 220 231 203 1613 1450 1451 1409

3 010 008 007 006 446 413 362 318 4810 4104 3705 3050 217 227 218 212 1520 1456 1268 1213

4 012 010 009 008 499 466 440 399 4679 4289 4175 3630 227 222 202 207 1564 1407 1328 1321

5 014 012 014 010 479 493 416 361 5031 4209 3839 3683 225 222 228 236 1494 1374 1259 1205

6 025 028 028 035 774 786 849 960 8847 8937 10590 13150 263 285 280 313 2148 2332 2371 2513

7 021 024 023 025 704 782 813 827 9526 10396 11149 12151 277 296 312 350 1785 1741 1742 1729

8 015 015 012 011 534 484 458 411 5691 5348 5296 5469 186 179 154 161 2101 2134 2257 2146

9 017 017 016 015 434 352 335 309 3687 2659 2208 1557 167 147 126 120 1507 1377 1248 1173

10 029 033 037 040 417 389 337 296 4868 4408 3809 3401 181 167 143 145 1538 1394 1279 1158

11 011 008 006 005 449 408 354 334 4758 3935 3524 3236 195 191 176 153 1871 1777 1795 1751

12 020 020 022 023 665 668 712 637 9215 11363 13842 14327 222 215 215 184 1873 1818 1809 1839

13 021 021 020 023 783 842 842 907 8811 9563 8686 9220 246 234 246 254 2124 2197 2307 2336

14 016 014 012 011 603 590 570 649 6301 6010 5819 5771 221 210 220 213 2139 2281 2226 2447

15 025 029 032 034 680 714 712 755 8168 8424 9094 8582 269 290 309 299 1998 1996 1966 1927

16 023 026 023 027 735 805 871 836 7317 8319 8599 9260 256 267 265 313 2153 2255 2268 2233

17 016 015 014 013 706 792 871 828 9457 9496 9557 11733 234 246 232 254 1799 1710 1649 1544

18 021 024 021 021 643 705 699 679 7545 8706 7888 7960 234 236 232 234 1795 1682 1688 1643

19 017 016 016 015 791 795 881 1053 10420 12831 14842 14880 276 294 302 301 2645 3061 3158 3517

20 012 009 008 008 545 525 532 483 4964 4978 4418 3734 252 246 240 242 1773 1793 1792 1550

21 026 028 031 033 980 1173 1531 1623 12934 17045 20568 25587 356 432 504 555 2168 2201 2225 2430

22 022 024 022 024 539 489 513 474 5323 4839 4078 3974 207 195 204 187 1525 1374 1241 1160

23 016 015 014 011 529 506 495 414 5761 6103 5365 4695 208 203 199 201 2090 2095 2089 2103

24 025 028 027 033 889 1039 1216 1304 11617 15334 16748 19296 285 288 321 318 2559 2842 3200 3467

25 022 022 023 024 617 614 641 661 7381 7741 7734 7355 201 183 181 167 1952 1996 2017 1982

26 030 040 036 047 638 646 611 644 7631 8381 7592 8300 200 186 176 173 1881 1847 1746 1805

27 015 014 012 013 505 465 422 433 6111 5940 5338 4822 170 152 131 134 1540 1373 1368 1291

28 016 013 012 012 466 437 425 368 4837 4339 3786 3072 208 203 201 172 1790 1811 1739 1686

29 011 008 006 006 422 348 290 276 4695 3992 3213 2735 174 165 142 131 1689 1645 1658 1518

30 017 016 015 014 548 513 485 504 6066 6050 5382 5314 221 227 218 204 1640 1495 1485 1375

31 016 014 013 013 551 524 504 420 5722 4948 4442 4039 196 175 162 159 2100 2133 2163 2368

32 029 030 034 038 498 443 395 349 4147 3298 2974 2512 194 179 169 151 1517 1360 1312 1209

33 023 024 027 029 678 695 724 732 7868 8230 8443 8449 255 275 265 294 2745 3142 3492 3808

34 035 040 049 054 782 843 925 979 7755 7821 8166 8865 288 307 344 334 1997 2059 2095 2239

35 012 010 009 008 551 532 565 488 6985 7363 6872 6115 212 219 201 204 1956 2033 1866 1858

36 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238

37 018 016 015 015 431 389 338 303 4107 3434 3157 2520 187 171 151 142 1348 1200 1067 959

38 025 028 030 029 581 611 525 547 5830 4962 4681 4374 253 261 269 270 2207 2307 2331 2511

39 022 024 024 027 682 674 703 690 6289 6707 6188 5735 233 249 244 250 2093 2091 2235 2335

40 025 030 035 033 768 823 834 969 10134 12586 13876 15668 292 311 371 392 2352 2714 2751 2883

41 025 030 027 031 709 722 813 858 8066 8128 9075 8288 271 290 305 319 1724 1582 1602 1558

42 012 010 008 006 296 216 169 151 2310 1435 986 771 150 121 109 090 1253 1054 940 789

43 018 017 016 014 708 740 776 888 8939 10641 10054 10632 273 289 295 316 1937 1932 1994 1938

44 016 014 014 014 417 358 318 288 4373 3420 2897 2543 179 161 145 128 1837 1849 1811 1783

45 024 026 026 026 468 423 393 370 4820 3878 3436 2825 208 203 188 169 1724 1672 1721 1691

46 019 020 020 019 576 637 610 610 6533 6598 6666 6786 204 207 181 181 1946 1988 2078 1928

47 008 005 004 004 308 247 192 177 2637 1898 1408 972 133 105 086 075 1126 925 815 739

48 031 036 038 043 681 774 787 860 5782 6008 6054 5691 259 262 265 272 1842 1834 1805 1657

49 015 015 013 014 588 581 590 582 7612 9229 8377 8573 202 190 182 178 1837 1833 1815 1762

50 016 014 012 010 409 346 296 273 3448 2728 2433 1680 165 158 139 134 1336 1151 989 956

51 022 021 024 022 631 654 628 656 6512 6238 6863 5733 235 237 228 245 2106 2188 2174 2310

52 014 013 011 011 544 544 491 505 6007 5243 4823 4922 188 177 166 155 1851 1899 1771 1806

53 017 016 016 014 796 919 1029 1080 10035 12687 12587 16905 290 319 368 353 2432 2804 2919 3292

54 036 045 051 053 751 805 954 911 7050 7643 7510 7316 268 283 290 317 2151 2212 2363 2417

55 012 009 008 006 353 282 228 208 3268 2446 1989 1481 157 129 112 111 1155 968 849 685

56 016 014 013 014 465 409 371 337 4004 3018 2627 2306 213 212 214 195 1723 1644 1539 1573

57 035 044 057 076 868 941 1085 1127 10866 14632 17431 20089 263 292 289 318 2723 3330 3618 3836

58 025 029 028 032 611 702 664 720 5773 6288 5346 5787 224 215 201 208 1695 1604 1501 1466

59 015 015 013 011 641 694 682 672 6932 7099 7472 6962 253 283 294 282 1955 1988 1919 1987

60 013 012 010 009 370 298 275 241 3023 2238 1947 1441 142 117 100 085 1524 1373 1335 1103

61 022 024 022 025 715 776 784 849 7281 8061 8721 8562 266 276 283 281 2104 2187 2130 2121

62 013 011 011 009 569 530 507 493 5343 4890 4534 4122 232 225 235 244 1432 1283 1141 991

63 013 011 010 008 463 424 354 346 3838 3269 2540 2223 192 178 165 159 1915 1908 1952 1890

64 014 013 011 010 665 685 674 711 7254 7577 8242 7389 276 284 312 343 1902 1877 1784 1881

65 026 029 035 036 791 844 898 1008 9727 10940 12787 13483 301 335 351 371 2458 2857 3022 3126

66 016 015 015 013 456 401 376 341 4018 3011 2673 2147 167 150 131 133 1735 1631 1514 1358

67 023 023 025 028 701 829 848 816 8495 9001 9754 9979 295 315 344 372 1881 1975 1968 1960

68 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081

69 014 014 013 012 469 456 424 396 4095 3235 2716 2469 232 218 235 215 1846 1783 1769 1759

70 019 020 019 018 640 674 670 672 6785 6304 6419 6186 250 247 247 241 2062 2175 2421 2430

71 020 021 023 022 667 677 707 752 8146 8325 8879 8341 237 241 236 242 2093 2275 2232 2274

72 019 016 017 016 645 637 681 608 6432 6267 6364 5536 276 315 309 338 1695 1730 1689 1702

73 022 024 026 026 738 788 831 860 8206 8564 9419 8704 321 362 377 440 2082 2305 2281 2263

74 012 010 009 007 506 470 436 431 5243 4758 4687 3999 194 178 162 148 1729 1608 1574 1632

75 028 030 034 039 705 726 835 795 6408 6759 6094 5739 270 286 301 326 1937 1954 1896 1922

76 023 024 021 021 682 710 721 788 7888 7858 8900 8340 300 338 360 392 2170 2212 2295 2479

77 037 043 046 053 728 846 879 845 8603 8376 9776 10368 237 249 263 261 1994 2163 2185 2264

78 025 025 024 031 675 707 764 751 8609 9940 9632 11128 260 266 267 275 2037 2116 2033 2058

79 028 030 037 038 563 538 538 539 6069 6428 5732 5382 207 198 178 169 1997 2051 2146 2150

80 021 020 024 023 624 649 634 649 5664 5628 4862 4865 249 276 277 279 1991 1978 2042 2079

81 036 049 058 075 682 763 821 821 8688 10002 9662 11595 256 263 267 272 2539 2827 3224 3603

82 025 028 027 031 459 404 360 341 4251 3653 3090 2716 218 209 213 217 2113 2139 2220 2171

83 032 040 045 058 565 534 572 519 5492 5063 4457 4135 200 189 189 176 1395 1244 1164 1068

84 020 018 018 018 624 658 693 620 6792 7087 6486 6822 229 248 240 235 1872 1857 1800 1782

85 019 019 019 018 568 505 491 479 6077 5656 5435 5757 203 183 174 162 1503 1310 1234 1158

86 025 028 029 031 822 902 905 1027 9657 11730 12287 13947 371 443 494 567 2146 2219 2432 2437

87 017 017 017 017 459 442 370 359 4358 3610 2995 2507 211 198 192 184 1850 1834 1860 1886

88 015 015 012 012 521 472 428 410 5694 5653 4597 4234 237 251 240 237 1725 1626 1572 1414

89 017 015 016 016 439 390 356 319 4202 3278 2938 2741 165 140 135 115 1302 1087 949 834

90 029 035 042 044 638 663 758 822 8360 9427 9758 9092 272 294 308 317 2294 2392 2612 2639

91 011 010 008 007 510 496 467 432 5667 5025 4150 4024 221 204 200 193 2037 2135 2235 2228

92 019 019 017 020 468 452 412 386 4681 3784 3476 3030 202 189 181 173 1550 1325 1272 1204

93 009 007 005 004 487 414 388 392 5470 4414 3990 3422 216 208 204 197 1936 1918 2013 2008

94 012 011 009 008 525 506 477 455 5461 5197 4182 3541 207 214 183 193 1749 1664 1613 1559

95 014 012 011 010 653 681 623 720 8745 9344 10628 11302 292 316 329 347 2366 2750 2806 3056

96 016 016 014 014 534 539 504 468 6087 5637 6034 5187 234 241 239 242 1821 1777 1749 1662

97 011 009 007 006 416 329 290 268 3611 2898 2629 1945 186 179 158 148 1560 1397 1335 1168

98 026 031 032 038 703 764 801 853 7465 7940 7971 6489 264 280 283 303 1679 1496 1411 1393

99 021 021 022 021 546 510 479 489 5851 5276 5787 4832 232 222 218 237 1745 1706 1664 1748

100 016 014 012 011 571 562 594 523 6238 6149 6375 6392 261 271 285 290 2084 2148 2302 2267

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2

3 3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1

1

185947613236 209700016612 381289955056 113496909508 105940968217

261410846662 278202957602 636440926272 159777507841 164064511715

340758878594 374684278258 761658671012 238893166595 230844682326

456070302878 505106365162 869191059145 27405034829 302394276185

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4







1







Sugar ($lbs) $ 020 70 $ 021 70 $ 022 70 $ 023 70 Sales 2069 2069 2069 - 0 2069 2069 - 0



Diesel ($gal) $ 224 37 $ 224 37 $ 224 37 $ 224 37 Sugar 119 58 58 - 0 311 311 - 0


Electricity 249 87 87 - 0 381 381 - 0


Aluminum 131 91 91 - 0 248 248 - 0


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total COGS 1372 930 930 - 0 1936 1936 - 0




Diesel (gal) 160 168 176 185



Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4


Sales price ($) 015 015 015 015



Hedge Selection

Futures

Sugar No

Natural gas No

Electricity No

Diesel No

Aluminum No






























8

12

10

6

4

2

0

14


1987 1991 1995 2003 20111999 2007

Crude Oil

Copper

Wheat




CAUSE DESCRIPTION






















GOVERNANCE









GOVERNANCE


INFRASTRUCTURE


ANALYTICS



INFRASTRUCTURE
















ANALYTICS










ThINK LIKE A TRADER































































GROSS EXPOSURE


NET EXPOSURE


Source Oliver Wyman












suppliers


risk exposure
















CONCLUSION










ABOUT THE AUTHORS

MICHAEL J DENTON






ALEX WITTENBERG










wwwoliverwymancom




MIChAEL J DENTON


ALEx WITTENBERG


BRIAN T KALISh


Oliver Wyman
File Attachment

intRoduCtion









Output prices



COMPANY





Input prices





















5 NET EXPOSURE

4 RISK MANAGEMENT

PORTFOLIO

3 GROSS EXPOSURE


PURCHASE VOLUMES

1 COMMODITY PRICE

PROJECTIONS

STEPS

























may evolve





















time horizon


ReadMe


Interface

Interface

REF
1

Cmdy Price Proj

Invisible
Grey
Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
124418764137
1367693617635
2648580611483
786217932233
803244438443
5605736599794
124418764137
4238042982159
1367693617635
1589462370676
2648580611483
803244438443
786217932233
0
803244438443

Correlations

5
95
Mean
Sugar
01107087317
03452715728
02
00854552129
04050827214
021
00695646039
04616729635
022
0061034605
05340468686
023


Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum

Gross Exposure

REF
EPS-at-risk
1

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

REF
EBITDA
1


Diesel
Electricity
Natural gas
Crude oil
Price change
EPS impact
Invisible
Grey
Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
1912572265773
1138117311849
1319658025171
11406289411
1162397994146
3734236225276
1912572265773
2596118913427
1138117311849
1276460888256
1319658025171
1162397994146
11406289411
0
1162397994146
5
95
Mean
Natural Gas
40688610903
79154680028
57310928297
32742030186
84855775584
57310928297
28887025303
92658501718
57310928297
26679947564
10281600624
57310928297

Net Exposure

5
95
Mean
Electricity
344141498094
1003995388957
622705433902
264877650618
1259146360173
622705433902
219723962528
1384358671012
6227
15528763279
1491896493046
622705433902

Fin Statement

5
95
Mean
Diesel
16508189205
29538139317
22444582473
14672697038
31955148416
22444582473
13074767002
36018057848
22444582473
11953891033
37258114813
22444582473


5
95
Mean
Aluminum
134769028369
254013105136
1878
119721652401
284279599425
187771063122
106347176349
316018108859
187771063122
95839609124
346925945325
187771063122

Graph support

Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
128
96
1
16
16
134
101
1
168
17
141
106
1
176
18
150
111
1
185
19

95ile
5ile
Earnings statement
-161353539101
1326569803377
611516334878
-421367106558
1798147036403
760774397443
-642177203637
2144399264928
918591594906
-1050874848209
2521161989213
1080153466317





Oliver Wyman
File Attachment









elasticity analysis






























































c Financial hedging



power to recover


revenue management



cost management



structured deals


capacity here)


integration eg


retail trading

examPle strategies


mechanisms (across


product portfolio)



purchase contracts









limit downside


with contracts with


underlying exposure





contribute greatest




to customers


earnings certainty




to supplier under

certain structures



and volatility






risk exposure


products or move to



product price



for risk sharing

bull need to find

receptive suppliers





cross-hedging



for joint ventures

or acquisitions


complexity


step 5 net exposuRe








the organization

























earnings profile






individual bu level


of probability








on earningsrdquo


ConClusion













other commodities






















wwwoliverwymancom


AuthoRs






Invisible 5606 4238 1589 803 00

Grey 1244 1368 2649 786 803

Sugar 1244 186 261 341 456 1244

Natural gas 1368 210 278 375 505 1368

Electricity 2649 381 636 762 869 2649

Diesel 786 113 160 239 274 786

Aluminum 803 106 164 231 302 803


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sugar 12800 13400 14100 15000

Natural gas 960 1010 1060 1110


Diesel 1600 1680 1760 1850

Aluminum 160 170 180 190



Invisible 3734 2596 1276 1162 00

Grey 1913 1138 1320 114 1162

Sugar 1913 207 404 530 771 1913

Natural gas 1138 168 250 348 372 1138

Electricity 1320 221 266 331 502 1320

Diesel 114 26 39 12 38 114

Aluminum 1162 151 223 340 448 1162


Cost (95)



Sugar 463 686 840 1116 463 686 840 1116 3105


Price 036 051 060 074

Natural gas 718 829 956 1008 718 829 956 1008 3511

Volume 96 101 106 111 718 829 956 1008 3511 Unhedged

Price 75 82 90 91

Electricity 844 888 953 1125 844 888 953 1125 3810

Volume 10 10 10 10 844 888 953 1125 3810 Unhedged

Price 844 888 953 1125

Diesel 385 416 407 453 385 416 407 453 1660

Volume 160 168 176 185 385 416 407 453 1660 Unhedged

Price 24 25 23 24

Aluminum 451 543 678 805 451 543 678 805 2477

Volume 16 17 18 19 451 543 678 805 2476841735006 Unhedged

Price 282 319 377 424

Total 2861 3361 3834 4507 2861 3361 3834 4507 14564

2861 3361 3834 4507 14563772697504 Unhedged

Cost (5)



Sugar 179 142 141 119 179 142 141 119 581


Price 014 011 010 008

Natural gas 347 283 251 241 347 283 251 241 1123

Volume 96 101 106 111 347 283 251 241 1123 Unhedged

Price 36 28 24 22

Electricity 332 223 176 138 332 223 176 138 868

Volume 10 10 10 10 332 223 176 138 868 Unhedged

Price 332 223 176 138

Diesel 275 264 244 231 275 264 244 231 1015

Volume 160 168 176 185 275 264 244 231 1015 Unhedged

Price 17 16 14 12

Aluminum 241 230 236 205 241 230 236 205 911

Volume 16 17 18 19 241 230 236 205 911127595797 Unhedged

Price 150 135 131 108

Total 1373 1142 1048 935 1373 1142 1048 935 4498

95ile 5ile

Sales 480 504 529 556 480 504 529 556

Fixed Costs 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

Variable Costs 286 336 383 451 137 114 105 93


EBITDA (16) (42) (64) (105) 133 180 214 252


[Optional comments]



































































































Earnings statement


Sales 48000 50400 52920 55560 206880

Volume 320000 336000 352800 370400 1379200

Price ($) 015 015 015 015

000


Fixed Costs 12000 12000 12000 12000 48000

Sugar ($lbs) 2560 2814 3102 3450 11926

Volume (lbs) 12800 13400 14100 15000

Price 020 021 022 023

000


Volume 960 1010 1060 1110

Price 573 573 573 573

000


Volume 100 100 100 100

Price 6227 6227 6227 6227

000


Volume 1600 1680 1760 1850

Price 224 224 224 224

000

Aluminum 3005 3192 3380 3568 13144

Volume 160 170 180 190

Price 1878 1878 1878 1878

Variable Costs 20885 21792 22734 23758 89170

000


000

EBITDA 6115 7608 9186 10802 33710

Impact of hedging


Futures Used

Sugar No

Natural gas No

Electricity No

Diesel No

Aluminum No

Net exposure (95)



Sugar 463 686 840 1116 207 404 530 771 1913

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500

Price 036 051 060 074

00 00 00 00 00

Natural gas 718 829 956 1008 168 250 348 372 1138

Volume 96 101 106 111

Price 75 82 90 91

00 00 00 00 00

Electricity 844 888 953 1125 221 266 331 502 1320

Volume 10 10 10 10

Price 844 888 953 1125

00 00 00 00 00

Diesel 385 416 407 453 26 39 12 38 114

Volume 160 168 176 185

Price 24 25 23 24

00 00 00 00 00

Aluminum 451 543 678 805 151 223 340 448 1162

Volume 16 17 18 19

Price 282 319 377 424

Total 2861 3361 3834 4507 773 1182 1561 2131 5647





Mean 020 021 022 023 573 573 573 573 6227 6227 6227 6227 224 224 224 224 1878 1878 1878 1878

Volatility 070 070 070 070 048 048 048 048 069 069 069 069 037 037 037 037 032 032 032 032

Time 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100

Volume 12800 13400 14100 15000 960 1010 1060 1110 100 100 100 100 1600 1680 1760 1850 160 170 180 190

Simulated

5 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081 48715

95 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238 145722

Std Dev 007 010 012 016 135 186 238 270 2100 3074 3713 4521 044 062 077 091 339 493 596 707

Mean


32380 47 008 005 004 004 308 247 192 177 2637 1898 1408 972 133 105 086 075 1126 925 815 739 32380

33948 42 012 010 008 006 296 216 169 151 2310 1435 986 771 150 121 109 090 1253 1054 940 789 33948

39948 55 012 009 008 006 353 282 228 208 3268 2446 1989 1481 157 129 112 111 1155 968 849 685 39948

43542 60 013 012 010 009 370 298 275 241 3023 2238 1947 1441 142 117 100 085 1524 1373 1335 1103 43542

44977 68 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081 44977

48911 50 016 014 012 010 409 346 296 273 3448 2728 2433 1680 165 158 139 134 1336 1151 989 956 48911

49824 97 011 009 007 006 416 329 290 268 3611 2898 2629 1945 186 179 158 148 1560 1397 1335 1168 49824

52614 9 017 017 016 015 434 352 335 309 3687 2659 2208 1557 167 147 126 120 1507 1377 1248 1173 52614

54247 89 017 015 016 016 439 390 356 319 4202 3278 2938 2741 165 140 135 115 1302 1087 949 834 54247

54467 29 011 008 006 006 422 348 290 276 4695 3992 3213 2735 174 165 142 131 1689 1645 1658 1518 54467

56081 37 018 016 015 015 431 389 338 303 4107 3434 3157 2520 187 171 151 142 1348 1200 1067 959 56081

56950 66 016 015 015 013 456 401 376 341 4018 3011 2673 2147 167 150 131 133 1735 1631 1514 1358 56950

58740 44 016 014 014 014 417 358 318 288 4373 3420 2897 2543 179 161 145 128 1837 1849 1811 1783 58740

59233 63 013 011 010 008 463 424 354 346 3838 3269 2540 2223 192 178 165 159 1915 1908 1952 1890 59233

60239 11 011 008 006 005 449 408 354 334 4758 3935 3524 3236 195 191 176 153 1871 1777 1795 1751 60239

60316 3 010 008 007 006 446 413 362 318 4810 4104 3705 3050 217 227 218 212 1520 1456 1268 1213 60316

61664 56 016 014 013 014 465 409 371 337 4004 3018 2627 2306 213 212 214 195 1723 1644 1539 1573 61664

65269 4 012 010 009 008 499 466 440 399 4679 4289 4175 3630 227 222 202 207 1564 1407 1328 1321 65269

65273 92 019 019 017 020 468 452 412 386 4681 3784 3476 3030 202 189 181 173 1550 1325 1272 1204 65273

65764 69 014 014 013 012 469 456 424 396 4095 3235 2716 2469 232 218 235 215 1846 1783 1769 1759 65764

65876 93 009 007 005 004 487 414 388 392 5470 4414 3990 3422 216 208 204 197 1936 1918 2013 2008 65876

66078 87 017 017 017 017 459 442 370 359 4358 3610 2995 2507 211 198 192 184 1850 1834 1860 1886 66078

66116 74 012 010 009 007 506 470 436 431 5243 4758 4687 3999 194 178 162 148 1729 1608 1574 1632 66116

66562 28 016 013 012 012 466 437 425 368 4837 4339 3786 3072 208 203 201 172 1790 1811 1739 1686 66562

66781 5 014 012 014 010 479 493 416 361 5031 4209 3839 3683 225 222 228 236 1494 1374 1259 1205 66781

68244 27 015 014 012 013 505 465 422 433 6111 5940 5338 4822 170 152 131 134 1540 1373 1368 1291 68244

69290 94 012 011 009 008 525 506 477 455 5461 5197 4182 3541 207 214 183 193 1749 1664 1613 1559 69290

69701 32 029 030 034 038 498 443 395 349 4147 3298 2974 2512 194 179 169 151 1517 1360 1312 1209 69701

70796 10 029 033 037 040 417 389 337 296 4868 4408 3809 3401 181 167 143 145 1538 1394 1279 1158 70796

71222 62 013 011 011 009 569 530 507 493 5343 4890 4534 4122 232 225 235 244 1432 1283 1141 991 71222

71261 45 024 026 026 026 468 423 393 370 4820 3878 3436 2825 208 203 188 169 1724 1672 1721 1691 71261

72702 91 011 010 008 007 510 496 467 432 5667 5025 4150 4024 221 204 200 193 2037 2135 2235 2228 72702

73734 20 012 009 008 008 545 525 532 483 4964 4978 4418 3734 252 246 240 242 1773 1793 1792 1550 73734

73801 52 014 013 011 011 544 544 491 505 6007 5243 4823 4922 188 177 166 155 1851 1899 1771 1806 73801

74108 88 015 015 012 012 521 472 428 410 5694 5653 4597 4234 237 251 240 237 1725 1626 1572 1414 74108

74317 1 013 012 011 009 497 415 414 379 5566 5460 4956 4077 238 249 243 227 2014 2054 1994 2024 74317

74660 22 022 024 022 024 539 489 513 474 5323 4839 4078 3974 207 195 204 187 1525 1374 1241 1160 74660

74808 31 016 014 013 013 551 524 504 420 5722 4948 4442 4039 196 175 162 159 2100 2133 2163 2368 74808

74998 82 025 028 027 031 459 404 360 341 4251 3653 3090 2716 218 209 213 217 2113 2139 2220 2171 74998

75350 8 015 015 012 011 534 484 458 411 5691 5348 5296 5469 186 179 154 161 2101 2134 2257 2146 75350

75850 85 019 019 019 018 568 505 491 479 6077 5656 5435 5757 203 183 174 162 1503 1310 1234 1158 75850

76270 2 021 018 018 018 538 515 500 489 5231 5090 4596 4623 223 220 231 203 1613 1450 1451 1409 76270

78037 30 017 016 015 014 548 513 485 504 6066 6050 5382 5314 221 227 218 204 1640 1495 1485 1375 78037

78226 23 016 015 014 011 529 506 495 414 5761 6103 5365 4695 208 203 199 201 2090 2095 2089 2103 78226

81022 96 016 016 014 014 534 539 504 468 6087 5637 6034 5187 234 241 239 242 1821 1777 1749 1662 81022

82068 99 021 021 022 021 546 510 479 489 5851 5276 5787 4832 232 222 218 237 1745 1706 1664 1748 82068

82643 35 012 010 009 008 551 532 565 488 6985 7363 6872 6115 212 219 201 204 1956 2033 1866 1858 82643

87060 14 016 014 012 011 603 590 570 649 6301 6010 5819 5771 221 210 220 213 2139 2281 2226 2447 87060

87614 83 032 040 045 058 565 534 572 519 5492 5063 4457 4135 200 189 189 176 1395 1244 1164 1068 87614

89614 46 019 020 020 019 576 637 610 610 6533 6598 6666 6786 204 207 181 181 1946 1988 2078 1928 89614

90297 100 016 014 012 011 571 562 594 523 6238 6149 6375 6392 261 271 285 290 2084 2148 2302 2267 90297

91492 49 015 015 013 014 588 581 590 582 7612 9229 8377 8573 202 190 182 178 1837 1833 1815 1762 91492

92285 79 028 030 037 038 563 538 538 539 6069 6428 5732 5382 207 198 178 169 1997 2051 2146 2150 92285

92517 80 021 020 024 023 624 649 634 649 5664 5628 4862 4865 249 276 277 279 1991 1978 2042 2079 92517

92520 58 025 029 028 032 611 702 664 720 5773 6288 5346 5787 224 215 201 208 1695 1604 1501 1466 92520

93297 38 025 028 030 029 581 611 525 547 5830 4962 4681 4374 253 261 269 270 2207 2307 2331 2511 93297

93492 84 020 018 018 018 624 658 693 620 6792 7087 6486 6822 229 248 240 235 1872 1857 1800 1782 93492

94010 72 019 016 017 016 645 637 681 608 6432 6267 6364 5536 276 315 309 338 1695 1730 1689 1702 94010

95355 25 022 022 023 024 617 614 641 661 7381 7741 7734 7355 201 183 181 167 1952 1996 2017 1982 95355

95981 51 022 021 024 022 631 654 628 656 6512 6238 6863 5733 235 237 228 245 2106 2188 2174 2310 95981

96590 70 019 020 019 018 640 674 670 672 6785 6304 6419 6186 250 247 247 241 2062 2175 2421 2430 96590

96659 59 015 015 013 011 641 694 682 672 6932 7099 7472 6962 253 283 294 282 1955 1988 1919 1987 96659

98984 39 022 024 024 027 682 674 703 690 6289 6707 6188 5735 233 249 244 250 2093 2091 2235 2335 98984

99473 64 014 013 011 010 665 685 674 711 7254 7577 8242 7389 276 284 312 343 1902 1877 1784 1881 99473

100438 18 021 024 021 021 643 705 699 679 7545 8706 7888 7960 234 236 232 234 1795 1682 1688 1643 100438

104925 26 030 040 036 047 638 646 611 644 7631 8381 7592 8300 200 186 176 173 1881 1847 1746 1805 104925

106683 71 020 021 023 022 667 677 707 752 8146 8325 8879 8341 237 241 236 242 2093 2275 2232 2274 106683

107046 48 031 036 038 043 681 774 787 860 5782 6008 6054 5691 259 262 265 272 1842 1834 1805 1657 107046

108929 75 028 030 034 039 705 726 835 795 6408 6759 6094 5739 270 286 301 326 1937 1954 1896 1922 108929

109789 17 016 015 014 013 706 792 871 828 9457 9496 9557 11733 234 246 232 254 1799 1710 1649 1544 109789

109940 98 026 031 032 038 703 764 801 853 7465 7940 7971 6489 264 280 283 303 1679 1496 1411 1393 109940

111963 61 022 024 022 025 715 776 784 849 7281 8061 8721 8562 266 276 283 281 2104 2187 2130 2121 111963

113140 41 025 030 027 031 709 722 813 858 8066 8128 9075 8288 271 290 305 319 1724 1582 1602 1558 113140

114475 15 025 029 032 034 680 714 712 755 8168 8424 9094 8582 269 290 309 299 1998 1996 1966 1927 114475

115420 76 023 024 021 021 682 710 721 788 7888 7858 8900 8340 300 338 360 392 2170 2212 2295 2479 115420

115470 12 020 020 022 023 665 668 712 637 9215 11363 13842 14327 222 215 215 184 1873 1818 1809 1839 115470

115543 43 018 017 016 014 708 740 776 888 8939 10641 10054 10632 273 289 295 316 1937 1932 1994 1938 115543

115599 16 023 026 023 027 735 805 871 836 7317 8319 8599 9260 256 267 265 313 2153 2255 2268 2233 115599

115628 95 014 012 011 010 653 681 623 720 8745 9344 10628 11302 292 316 329 347 2366 2750 2806 3056 115628

115695 13 021 021 020 023 783 842 842 907 8811 9563 8686 9220 246 234 246 254 2124 2197 2307 2336 115695

116747 78 025 025 024 031 675 707 764 751 8609 9940 9632 11128 260 266 267 275 2037 2116 2033 2058 116747

118794 33 023 024 027 029 678 695 724 732 7868 8230 8443 8449 255 275 265 294 2745 3142 3492 3808 118794

120798 67 023 023 025 028 701 829 848 816 8495 9001 9754 9979 295 315 344 372 1881 1975 1968 1960 120798

122134 7 021 024 023 025 704 782 813 827 9526 10396 11149 12151 277 296 312 350 1785 1741 1742 1729 122134

123516 73 022 024 026 026 738 788 831 860 8206 8564 9419 8704 321 362 377 440 2082 2305 2281 2263 123516

125606 90 029 035 042 044 638 663 758 822 8360 9427 9758 9092 272 294 308 317 2294 2392 2612 2639 125606

126928 54 036 045 051 053 751 805 954 911 7050 7643 7510 7316 268 283 290 317 2151 2212 2363 2417 126928

128846 77 037 043 046 053 728 846 879 845 8603 8376 9776 10368 237 249 263 261 1994 2163 2185 2264 128846

128878 6 025 028 028 035 774 786 849 960 8847 8937 10590 13150 263 285 280 313 2148 2332 2371 2513 128878

130807 34 035 040 049 054 782 843 925 979 7755 7821 8166 8865 288 307 344 334 1997 2059 2095 2239 130807

140398 19 017 016 016 015 791 795 881 1053 10420 12831 14842 14880 276 294 302 301 2645 3061 3158 3517 140398

142414 81 036 049 058 075 682 763 821 821 8688 10002 9662 11595 256 263 267 272 2539 2827 3224 3603 142414

143917 53 017 016 016 014 796 919 1029 1080 10035 12687 12587 16905 290 319 368 353 2432 2804 2919 3292 143917

145005 65 026 029 035 036 791 844 898 1008 9727 10940 12787 13483 301 335 351 371 2458 2857 3022 3126 145005

145638 36 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238 145638

147330 40 025 030 035 033 768 823 834 969 10134 12586 13876 15668 292 311 371 392 2352 2714 2751 2883 147330

149955 86 025 028 029 031 822 902 905 1027 9657 11730 12287 13947 371 443 494 567 2146 2219 2432 2437 149955

167385 24 025 028 027 033 889 1039 1216 1304 11617 15334 16748 19296 285 288 321 318 2559 2842 3200 3467 167385

178469 57 035 044 057 076 868 941 1085 1127 10866 14632 17431 20089 263 292 289 318 2723 3330 3618 3836 178469

195830 21 026 028 031 033 980 1173 1531 1623 12934 17045 20568 25587 356 432 504 555 2168 2201 2225 2430 195830


Futures Description







Gross Exposure



Sugar 442 543 651 801 186 261 341 456 1244

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500

Price 035 041 046 053

00 00 00 00 00

Natural gas 760 857 982 1141 210 278 375 505 1368

Volume (MMBTU) 96 101 106 111

Price 792 849 927 1028

00 00 00 00 00

Electricity 1004 1259 1384 1492 381 636 762 869 2649

Volume (MWh) 10 10 10 10

Price 1004 1259 1384 1492

00 00 00 00 00

Diesel 473 537 634 689 113 160 239 274 786

Volume (gal) 160 168 176 185

Price 295 320 360 373

00 00 00 00 00

Aluminum 406 483 569 659 106 164 231 302 803


Price 2540 2843 3160 3469

Total 3085 3679 4220 4783 996 1500 1947 2407 6850



Sales 48000 50400 52920 55560 206880

Volume 320000 336000 352800 370400 1379200

Price ($) 015 015 015 015 016

000


Fixed Costs 12000 12000 12000 12000 48000

Sugar ($) 2560 2814 3102 3450 11926

Volume (lb) 12800 13400 14100 15000

($lb) 020 021 022 023

000

Natural gas ($) 5502 5788 6075 6362 23727

Volume (MMBTU) 960 1010 1060 1110

Price ($MMBTU) 573 573 573 573

000

Electricity ($) 6227 6227 6227 6227 24908

Volume 100 100 100 100

Price 6227 6227 6227 6227

000

Diesel ($l) 3591 3771 3950 4152 15464

Volume 1600 1680 1760 1850

Price 224 224 224 224

000

Aluminum ($) 3005 3192 3380 3568 13144

Volume 160 170 180 190

Price 1878 1878 1878 1878

Variable Costs 20885 21792 22734 23758 89170

Correlations




Sugar Q1 100 099 099 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q2 099 100 099 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q3 099 099 100 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q4 099 099 099 100 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Nat Gas Q1 065 065 065 065 100 099 099 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q2 065 065 065 065 099 100 099 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q3 065 065 065 065 099 099 100 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q4 065 065 065 065 099 099 099 100 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Electricity Q1 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 100 099 099 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q2 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 100 099 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q3 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 099 100 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q4 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 099 099 100 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Diesel Q1 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 100 099 099 099 066 066 066 066

Q2 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 100 099 099 066 066 066 066

Q3 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 099 100 099 066 066 066 066

Q4 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 099 099 100 066 066 066 066

Aluminum Q1 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 100 099 099 099

Q2 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 100 099 099

Q3 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 099 100 099

Q4 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 099 099 100





1 (108) (092) (082) (107) (047) (078) (057) (062) (015) (003) (008) (027) 041 052 041 022 052 051 036 039

2 031 (007) (006) (003) (015) (014) (012) (009) (033) (017) (021) (009) 005 005 026 (009) (087) (103) (079) (074)

3 (176) (167) (159) (155) (092) (079) (090) (098) (058) (061) (057) (069) (009) 018 007 002 (124) (101) (128) (121)

4 (134) (119) (112) (122) (046) (044) (043) (052) (066) (052) (037) (044) 016 009 (016) (003) (106) (116) (111) (094)

5 (075) (080) (049) (077) (063) (028) (057) (072) (045) (056) (051) (042) 011 010 021 032 (135) (127) (130) (123)

6 082 082 072 095 137 110 115 132 119 098 119 143 095 104 085 108 092 107 098 107

7 035 050 038 044 098 108 105 100 140 129 127 131 123 119 119 139 (024) (022) (013) (010)

8 (056) (044) (076) (066) (017) (033) (033) (045) (009) (007) 003 016 (091) (074) (102) (071) 078 068 080 058

9 (025) (015) (023) (027) (104) (127) (109) (105) (135) (150) (144) (166) (149) (148) (165) (151) (130) (126) (134) (131)

10 126 116 115 112 (120) (097) (107) (114) (054) (046) (052) (053) (107) (099) (125) (099) (117) (120) (125) (135)

11 (166) (182) (173) (174) (090) (083) (095) (089) (061) (070) (065) (060) (066) (048) (061) (084) 006 (013) (002) (006)

12 014 014 034 034 074 062 073 046 131 148 164 155 003 (003) 002 (035) 006 (003) 000 010

13 034 028 011 035 142 130 113 120 118 112 086 091 060 030 044 052 085 081 088 084

14 (048) (059) (063) (068) 033 026 020 050 021 017 019 023 001 (012) 009 005 089 097 075 099

15 079 091 090 091 083 082 073 081 096 086 093 081 107 112 115 096 047 038 030 024

16 058 071 034 059 116 117 122 103 064 084 084 092 081 080 068 108 093 092 082 070

17 (046) (041) (043) (048) 099 112 121 101 138 111 102 126 031 049 027 052 (019) (030) (033) (045)

18 030 052 025 024 060 078 068 059 073 093 069 070 031 033 026 030 (020) (037) (024) (026)

19 (034) (031) (025) (026) 146 114 124 151 166 173 175 161 121 116 108 097 222 227 201 212

20 (119) (138) (136) (114) (009) (009) 003 (012) (048) (021) (028) (040) 073 048 037 039 (028) (009) (003) (044)

21 092 081 085 085 236 228 257 241 229 231 230 239 259 264 269 263 098 082 075 097

22 047 052 031 042 (014) (030) (006) (016) (028) (027) (041) (031) (035) (040) (014) (031) (122) (127) (135) (134)

23 (043) (047) (046) (069) (021) (019) (014) (044) (005) 020 005 (006) (032) (025) (021) (012) 075 060 052 051

24 082 083 064 089 195 192 202 195 198 209 195 198 138 109 128 113 201 194 206 208

25 039 030 035 039 042 037 048 054 067 069 066 059 (050) (065) (051) (061) 032 038 040 033

26 130 157 113 138 057 052 036 048 076 085 063 076 (053) (058) (061) (052) 009 004 (012) 004

27 (063) (063) (067) (046) (041) (045) (053) (035) 012 015 004 (003) (140) (136) (152) (120) (116) (127) (101) (101)

28 (051) (067) (068) (058) (075) (063) (051) (068) (056) (050) (053) (068) (031) (025) (019) (053) (022) (005) (014) (018)

29 (165) (163) (176) (155) (115) (130) (143) (128) (065) (067) (081) (085) (128) (105) (126) (127) (058) (047) (031) (050)

30 (029) (031) (029) (032) (007) (016) (019) (003) 010 018 005 012 001 017 007 (007) (077) (089) (071) (081)

31 (040) (055) (058) (043) (004) (009) (010) (041) (007) (023) (027) (028) (065) (082) (086) (075) 078 068 065 089

32 123 098 102 105 (047) (059) (069) (079) (101) (106) (094) (097) (069) (074) (072) (089) (125) (131) (115) (122)

33 057 052 066 070 082 074 077 075 085 082 081 079 079 090 068 091 245 239 238 237

34 174 156 162 156 142 131 136 135 081 071 075 086 143 133 150 126 046 052 053 071

35 (121) (127) (111) (122) (004) (005) 018 (009) 051 059 046 032 (021) 003 (018) (008) 034 046 012 013

36 187 205 195 203 123 123 130 120 105 097 101 120 046 051 025 042 262 246 265 270

37 (019) (031) (029) (029) (106) (097) (106) (108) (103) (098) (084) (097) (090) (092) (107) (106) (199) (187) (190) (194)

38 080 080 081 069 018 036 (001) 014 (002) (022) (018) (017) 074 071 073 069 109 102 092 107

39 040 053 044 058 085 065 070 063 020 040 029 023 029 053 042 047 076 059 077 084

40 085 100 108 089 134 123 111 133 158 169 164 168 151 138 173 169 149 174 152 150

41 082 097 061 076 101 085 105 108 092 079 093 076 111 111 112 113 (045) (064) (044) (042)

42 (123) (134) (135) (147) (263) (271) (274) (254) (270) (276) (279) (268) (210) (223) (208) (227) (245) (244) (236) (255)

43 (016) (018) (018) (034) 100 092 094 115 122 134 110 112 115 109 102 111 027 024 035 026

44 (048) (052) (042) (035) (120) (122) (121) (119) (085) (098) (098) (095) (112) (115) (120) (132) (006) 005 001 (000)

45 069 067 059 054 (073) (073) (070) (067) (057) (073) (070) (080) (033) (026) (039) (057) (045) (040) (018) (017)

46 005 011 013 005 014 048 036 037 031 036 041 047 (043) (018) (052) (039) 030 037 050 024

47 (235) (256) (232) (222) (247) (231) (242) (221) (232) (219) (219) (235) (272) (277) (282) (278) (312) (301) (287) (275)

48 143 131 119 126 084 106 097 108 (004) 017 025 021 087 072 067 071 (004) 001 (000) (023)

49 (063) (045) (054) (035) 023 021 028 027 075 105 080 081 (048) (052) (049) (045) (006) 001 002 (004)

50 (055) (060) (066) (079) (129) (132) (138) (130) (154) (145) (127) (155) (157) (121) (133) (121) (205) (205) (217) (195)

51 039 028 044 031 052 056 043 052 030 025 046 023 035 034 022 042 079 079 067 081

52 (087) (075) (088) (067) (009) 002 (016) (002) 007 (011) (013) 000 (087) (077) (079) (081) (001) 016 (007) 004

53 (032) (024) (025) (035) 149 156 161 156 156 170 148 179 148 147 170 141 170 188 173 191

54 186 179 168 155 124 117 143 121 053 066 061 058 106 101 095 112 093 084 097 095

55 (135) (144) (137) (150) (190) (192) (201) (188) (170) (167) (161) (174) (185) (199) (201) (171) (296) (281) (273) (299)

56 (052) (051) (058) (040) (075) (083) (084) (087) (111) (124) (115) (109) (019) (009) 002 (019) (046) (047) (058) (039)

57 173 174 186 206 185 163 174 165 179 199 202 204 095 113 095 113 240 264 251 239

58 076 087 072 084 039 077 056 072 (005) 026 004 024 008 (004) (018) (002) (056) (058) (067) (061)

59 (072) (037) (056) (072) 059 073 063 057 048 051 060 051 074 102 100 080 033 037 022 034

60 (109) (093) (104) (106) (170) (175) (156) (156) (192) (185) (165) (178) (238) (234) (237) (243) (122) (127) (109) (150)

61 044 048 032 047 104 106 096 106 063 077 086 081 102 092 089 080 079 079 059 054

62 (105) (101) (086) (094) 009 (006) (009) (007) (027) (025) (023) (025) 026 015 030 041 (161) (157) (166) (184)

63 (095) (103) (105) (122) (077) (072) (095) (081) (123) (108) (120) (115) (077) (075) (081) (075) 020 018 028 018

64 (079) (070) (083) (086) 074 070 060 069 062 065 077 059 121 103 119 133 016 011 (005) 017

65 096 093 106 097 146 131 129 142 147 140 150 146 169 166 156 154 176 197 186 175

66 (049) (046) (037) (042) (084) (088) (081) (084) (110) (125) (112) (120) (149) (140) (151) (124) (042) (051) (064) (085)

67 061 045 052 064 096 126 115 098 107 100 105 103 157 142 150 155 009 034 031 029

68 (085) (114) (100) (117) (180) (194) (192) (178) (165) (186) (182) (184) (135) (123) (134) (140) (131) (134) (116) (157)

69 (084) (062) (057) (060) (071) (050) (052) (053) (104) (110) (109) (100) 028 002 031 008 (003) (012) (008) (004)

70 (002) 011 007 002 058 065 058 057 042 027 035 034 069 050 045 037 066 076 106 097

71 023 024 035 027 075 066 071 081 095 084 089 077 039 040 032 039 076 096 076 076

72 (005) (026) (008) (013) 061 048 062 036 027 026 034 017 121 143 116 129 (056) (025) (024) (015)

73 048 050 056 053 118 111 110 109 097 090 099 083 203 196 178 200 072 102 084 074

74 (119) (122) (110) (137) (040) (041) (045) (036) (033) (031) (018) (030) (071) (076) (086) (093) (044) (057) (050) (028)

75 114 095 103 110 098 087 111 092 026 041 026 023 109 106 108 120 027 029 017 023

76 057 048 022 022 085 080 076 090 086 072 090 077 167 169 163 169 098 084 086 103

77 190 171 152 155 112 132 124 105 111 085 105 108 040 053 065 059 046 074 069 075

78 077 059 048 077 080 079 090 080 111 120 103 119 089 077 070 073 059 064 042 045

79 118 100 116 107 005 (002) 006 011 010 031 016 013 (033) (034) (056) (059) 046 050 062 058

80 033 017 045 032 047 053 045 050 (010) 004 (012) (001) 066 093 082 077 045 034 044 048

81 182 197 190 205 085 101 107 099 114 122 103 125 081 073 071 071 197 192 209 220

82 076 081 062 078 (080) (086) (091) (084) (093) (085) (087) (086) (006) (014) (000) 009 082 069 074 061

83 156 153 147 166 006 (004) 020 003 (019) (018) (026) (025) (052) (052) (037) (048) (178) (171) (159) (160)

84 017 (010) (000) 003 048 058 066 040 042 051 037 048 020 052 037 030 006 006 (001) (000)

85 006 007 006 (000) 009 (020) (017) (013) 010 005 007 023 (045) (064) (063) (069) (131) (148) (138) (135)

86 078 080 076 077 162 150 131 145 144 154 144 151 281 273 262 269 091 085 107 097

87 (034) (019) (010) (011) (080) (060) (085) (074) (086) (087) (093) (097) (024) (034) (033) (036) (001) 001 010 017

88 (070) (046) (064) (058) (028) (040) (049) (046) (009) 005 (021) (021) 038 056 036 033 (045) (052) (050) (073)

89 (031) (037) (025) (013) (099) (097) (094) (098) (097) (107) (096) (084) (158) (167) (144) (163) (221) (230) (232) (238)

90 123 130 136 128 057 060 088 099 103 109 105 089 112 116 115 112 133 118 133 122

91 (146) (126) (133) (132) (037) (026) (029) (035) (010) (020) (038) (029) 000 (024) (020) (022) 059 068 077 069

92 (001) 007 (009) 018 (073) (053) (058) (058) (065) (078) (068) (070) (048) (052) (051) (052) (112) (143) (127) (123)

93 (226) (202) (225) (216) (056) (079) (073) (055) (020) (046) (045) (052) (011) (017) (014) (016) 027 021 039 037

94 (131) (113) (112) (115) (025) (019) (023) (024) (021) (013) (037) (047) (034) (005) (048) (023) (037) (042) (041) (042)

95 (087) (084) (091) (090) 066 068 041 072 116 108 119 121 152 144 136 136 152 180 159 168

96 (042) (035) (040) (038) (018) (001) (010) (018) 011 004 025 008 031 040 035 039 (011) (013) (012) (022)

97 (151) (157) (167) (162) (122) (147) (143) (134) (141) (132) (114) (134) (093) (074) (093) (093) (108) (119) (109) (132)

98 096 101 091 109 097 102 101 107 070 074 071 040 097 098 089 099 (062) (089) (089) (077)

99 033 028 029 021 (008) (017) (022) (009) (001) (010) 018 (002) 027 008 007 033 (038) (031) (030) (006)

100 (055) (051) (066) (067) 011 011 029 005 018 022 034 038 091 085 091 088 073 071 087 075

Price Simulations




Mean 020 021 022 023 573 573 573 573 6227 6227 6227 6227 224 224 224 224 1878 1878 1878 1878

Volatility 070 070 070 070 048 048 048 048 069 069 069 069 037 037 037 037 032 032 032 032

Time 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100

Simulated

5 011 009 007 006 407 327 289 267 3441 2649 2197 1553 165 147 131 120 1348 1197 1063 958

95 035 041 046 053 792 849 927 1028 10040 12591 13844 14919 295 320 360 373 2540 2843 3160 3469

Std Dev 007 010 012 016 135 186 238 270 2100 3074 3713 4521 044 062 077 091 339 493 596 707

1 013 012 011 009 497 415 414 379 5566 5460 4956 4077 238 249 243 227 2014 2054 1994 2024

2 021 018 018 018 538 515 500 489 5231 5090 4596 4623 223 220 231 203 1613 1450 1451 1409

3 010 008 007 006 446 413 362 318 4810 4104 3705 3050 217 227 218 212 1520 1456 1268 1213

4 012 010 009 008 499 466 440 399 4679 4289 4175 3630 227 222 202 207 1564 1407 1328 1321

5 014 012 014 010 479 493 416 361 5031 4209 3839 3683 225 222 228 236 1494 1374 1259 1205

6 025 028 028 035 774 786 849 960 8847 8937 10590 13150 263 285 280 313 2148 2332 2371 2513

7 021 024 023 025 704 782 813 827 9526 10396 11149 12151 277 296 312 350 1785 1741 1742 1729

8 015 015 012 011 534 484 458 411 5691 5348 5296 5469 186 179 154 161 2101 2134 2257 2146

9 017 017 016 015 434 352 335 309 3687 2659 2208 1557 167 147 126 120 1507 1377 1248 1173

10 029 033 037 040 417 389 337 296 4868 4408 3809 3401 181 167 143 145 1538 1394 1279 1158

11 011 008 006 005 449 408 354 334 4758 3935 3524 3236 195 191 176 153 1871 1777 1795 1751

12 020 020 022 023 665 668 712 637 9215 11363 13842 14327 222 215 215 184 1873 1818 1809 1839

13 021 021 020 023 783 842 842 907 8811 9563 8686 9220 246 234 246 254 2124 2197 2307 2336

14 016 014 012 011 603 590 570 649 6301 6010 5819 5771 221 210 220 213 2139 2281 2226 2447

15 025 029 032 034 680 714 712 755 8168 8424 9094 8582 269 290 309 299 1998 1996 1966 1927

16 023 026 023 027 735 805 871 836 7317 8319 8599 9260 256 267 265 313 2153 2255 2268 2233

17 016 015 014 013 706 792 871 828 9457 9496 9557 11733 234 246 232 254 1799 1710 1649 1544

18 021 024 021 021 643 705 699 679 7545 8706 7888 7960 234 236 232 234 1795 1682 1688 1643

19 017 016 016 015 791 795 881 1053 10420 12831 14842 14880 276 294 302 301 2645 3061 3158 3517

20 012 009 008 008 545 525 532 483 4964 4978 4418 3734 252 246 240 242 1773 1793 1792 1550

21 026 028 031 033 980 1173 1531 1623 12934 17045 20568 25587 356 432 504 555 2168 2201 2225 2430

22 022 024 022 024 539 489 513 474 5323 4839 4078 3974 207 195 204 187 1525 1374 1241 1160

23 016 015 014 011 529 506 495 414 5761 6103 5365 4695 208 203 199 201 2090 2095 2089 2103

24 025 028 027 033 889 1039 1216 1304 11617 15334 16748 19296 285 288 321 318 2559 2842 3200 3467

25 022 022 023 024 617 614 641 661 7381 7741 7734 7355 201 183 181 167 1952 1996 2017 1982

26 030 040 036 047 638 646 611 644 7631 8381 7592 8300 200 186 176 173 1881 1847 1746 1805

27 015 014 012 013 505 465 422 433 6111 5940 5338 4822 170 152 131 134 1540 1373 1368 1291

28 016 013 012 012 466 437 425 368 4837 4339 3786 3072 208 203 201 172 1790 1811 1739 1686

29 011 008 006 006 422 348 290 276 4695 3992 3213 2735 174 165 142 131 1689 1645 1658 1518

30 017 016 015 014 548 513 485 504 6066 6050 5382 5314 221 227 218 204 1640 1495 1485 1375

31 016 014 013 013 551 524 504 420 5722 4948 4442 4039 196 175 162 159 2100 2133 2163 2368

32 029 030 034 038 498 443 395 349 4147 3298 2974 2512 194 179 169 151 1517 1360 1312 1209

33 023 024 027 029 678 695 724 732 7868 8230 8443 8449 255 275 265 294 2745 3142 3492 3808

34 035 040 049 054 782 843 925 979 7755 7821 8166 8865 288 307 344 334 1997 2059 2095 2239

35 012 010 009 008 551 532 565 488 6985 7363 6872 6115 212 219 201 204 1956 2033 1866 1858

36 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238

37 018 016 015 015 431 389 338 303 4107 3434 3157 2520 187 171 151 142 1348 1200 1067 959

38 025 028 030 029 581 611 525 547 5830 4962 4681 4374 253 261 269 270 2207 2307 2331 2511

39 022 024 024 027 682 674 703 690 6289 6707 6188 5735 233 249 244 250 2093 2091 2235 2335

40 025 030 035 033 768 823 834 969 10134 12586 13876 15668 292 311 371 392 2352 2714 2751 2883

41 025 030 027 031 709 722 813 858 8066 8128 9075 8288 271 290 305 319 1724 1582 1602 1558

42 012 010 008 006 296 216 169 151 2310 1435 986 771 150 121 109 090 1253 1054 940 789

43 018 017 016 014 708 740 776 888 8939 10641 10054 10632 273 289 295 316 1937 1932 1994 1938

44 016 014 014 014 417 358 318 288 4373 3420 2897 2543 179 161 145 128 1837 1849 1811 1783

45 024 026 026 026 468 423 393 370 4820 3878 3436 2825 208 203 188 169 1724 1672 1721 1691

46 019 020 020 019 576 637 610 610 6533 6598 6666 6786 204 207 181 181 1946 1988 2078 1928

47 008 005 004 004 308 247 192 177 2637 1898 1408 972 133 105 086 075 1126 925 815 739

48 031 036 038 043 681 774 787 860 5782 6008 6054 5691 259 262 265 272 1842 1834 1805 1657

49 015 015 013 014 588 581 590 582 7612 9229 8377 8573 202 190 182 178 1837 1833 1815 1762

50 016 014 012 010 409 346 296 273 3448 2728 2433 1680 165 158 139 134 1336 1151 989 956

51 022 021 024 022 631 654 628 656 6512 6238 6863 5733 235 237 228 245 2106 2188 2174 2310

52 014 013 011 011 544 544 491 505 6007 5243 4823 4922 188 177 166 155 1851 1899 1771 1806

53 017 016 016 014 796 919 1029 1080 10035 12687 12587 16905 290 319 368 353 2432 2804 2919 3292

54 036 045 051 053 751 805 954 911 7050 7643 7510 7316 268 283 290 317 2151 2212 2363 2417

55 012 009 008 006 353 282 228 208 3268 2446 1989 1481 157 129 112 111 1155 968 849 685

56 016 014 013 014 465 409 371 337 4004 3018 2627 2306 213 212 214 195 1723 1644 1539 1573

57 035 044 057 076 868 941 1085 1127 10866 14632 17431 20089 263 292 289 318 2723 3330 3618 3836

58 025 029 028 032 611 702 664 720 5773 6288 5346 5787 224 215 201 208 1695 1604 1501 1466

59 015 015 013 011 641 694 682 672 6932 7099 7472 6962 253 283 294 282 1955 1988 1919 1987

60 013 012 010 009 370 298 275 241 3023 2238 1947 1441 142 117 100 085 1524 1373 1335 1103

61 022 024 022 025 715 776 784 849 7281 8061 8721 8562 266 276 283 281 2104 2187 2130 2121

62 013 011 011 009 569 530 507 493 5343 4890 4534 4122 232 225 235 244 1432 1283 1141 991

63 013 011 010 008 463 424 354 346 3838 3269 2540 2223 192 178 165 159 1915 1908 1952 1890

64 014 013 011 010 665 685 674 711 7254 7577 8242 7389 276 284 312 343 1902 1877 1784 1881

65 026 029 035 036 791 844 898 1008 9727 10940 12787 13483 301 335 351 371 2458 2857 3022 3126

66 016 015 015 013 456 401 376 341 4018 3011 2673 2147 167 150 131 133 1735 1631 1514 1358

67 023 023 025 028 701 829 848 816 8495 9001 9754 9979 295 315 344 372 1881 1975 1968 1960

68 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081

69 014 014 013 012 469 456 424 396 4095 3235 2716 2469 232 218 235 215 1846 1783 1769 1759

70 019 020 019 018 640 674 670 672 6785 6304 6419 6186 250 247 247 241 2062 2175 2421 2430

71 020 021 023 022 667 677 707 752 8146 8325 8879 8341 237 241 236 242 2093 2275 2232 2274

72 019 016 017 016 645 637 681 608 6432 6267 6364 5536 276 315 309 338 1695 1730 1689 1702

73 022 024 026 026 738 788 831 860 8206 8564 9419 8704 321 362 377 440 2082 2305 2281 2263

74 012 010 009 007 506 470 436 431 5243 4758 4687 3999 194 178 162 148 1729 1608 1574 1632

75 028 030 034 039 705 726 835 795 6408 6759 6094 5739 270 286 301 326 1937 1954 1896 1922

76 023 024 021 021 682 710 721 788 7888 7858 8900 8340 300 338 360 392 2170 2212 2295 2479

77 037 043 046 053 728 846 879 845 8603 8376 9776 10368 237 249 263 261 1994 2163 2185 2264

78 025 025 024 031 675 707 764 751 8609 9940 9632 11128 260 266 267 275 2037 2116 2033 2058

79 028 030 037 038 563 538 538 539 6069 6428 5732 5382 207 198 178 169 1997 2051 2146 2150

80 021 020 024 023 624 649 634 649 5664 5628 4862 4865 249 276 277 279 1991 1978 2042 2079

81 036 049 058 075 682 763 821 821 8688 10002 9662 11595 256 263 267 272 2539 2827 3224 3603

82 025 028 027 031 459 404 360 341 4251 3653 3090 2716 218 209 213 217 2113 2139 2220 2171

83 032 040 045 058 565 534 572 519 5492 5063 4457 4135 200 189 189 176 1395 1244 1164 1068

84 020 018 018 018 624 658 693 620 6792 7087 6486 6822 229 248 240 235 1872 1857 1800 1782

85 019 019 019 018 568 505 491 479 6077 5656 5435 5757 203 183 174 162 1503 1310 1234 1158

86 025 028 029 031 822 902 905 1027 9657 11730 12287 13947 371 443 494 567 2146 2219 2432 2437

87 017 017 017 017 459 442 370 359 4358 3610 2995 2507 211 198 192 184 1850 1834 1860 1886

88 015 015 012 012 521 472 428 410 5694 5653 4597 4234 237 251 240 237 1725 1626 1572 1414

89 017 015 016 016 439 390 356 319 4202 3278 2938 2741 165 140 135 115 1302 1087 949 834

90 029 035 042 044 638 663 758 822 8360 9427 9758 9092 272 294 308 317 2294 2392 2612 2639

91 011 010 008 007 510 496 467 432 5667 5025 4150 4024 221 204 200 193 2037 2135 2235 2228

92 019 019 017 020 468 452 412 386 4681 3784 3476 3030 202 189 181 173 1550 1325 1272 1204

93 009 007 005 004 487 414 388 392 5470 4414 3990 3422 216 208 204 197 1936 1918 2013 2008

94 012 011 009 008 525 506 477 455 5461 5197 4182 3541 207 214 183 193 1749 1664 1613 1559

95 014 012 011 010 653 681 623 720 8745 9344 10628 11302 292 316 329 347 2366 2750 2806 3056

96 016 016 014 014 534 539 504 468 6087 5637 6034 5187 234 241 239 242 1821 1777 1749 1662

97 011 009 007 006 416 329 290 268 3611 2898 2629 1945 186 179 158 148 1560 1397 1335 1168

98 026 031 032 038 703 764 801 853 7465 7940 7971 6489 264 280 283 303 1679 1496 1411 1393

99 021 021 022 021 546 510 479 489 5851 5276 5787 4832 232 222 218 237 1745 1706 1664 1748

100 016 014 012 011 571 562 594 523 6238 6149 6375 6392 261 271 285 290 2084 2148 2302 2267

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2

3 3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1

1

185947613236 209700016612 381289955056 113496909508 105940968217

261410846662 278202957602 636440926272 159777507841 164064511715

340758878594 374684278258 761658671012 238893166595 230844682326

456070302878 505106365162 869191059145 27405034829 302394276185

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4







1







Sugar ($lbs) $ 020 70 $ 021 70 $ 022 70 $ 023 70 Sales 2069 2069 2069 - 0 2069 2069 - 0



Diesel ($gal) $ 224 37 $ 224 37 $ 224 37 $ 224 37 Sugar 119 58 58 - 0 311 311 - 0


Electricity 249 87 87 - 0 381 381 - 0


Aluminum 131 91 91 - 0 248 248 - 0


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total COGS 1372 930 930 - 0 1936 1936 - 0




Diesel (gal) 160 168 176 185



Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4


Sales price ($) 015 015 015 015



Hedge Selection

Futures

Sugar No

Natural gas No

Electricity No

Diesel No

Aluminum No









CAUSE DESCRIPTION






















GOVERNANCE









GOVERNANCE


INFRASTRUCTURE


ANALYTICS



INFRASTRUCTURE
















ANALYTICS










ThINK LIKE A TRADER































































GROSS EXPOSURE


NET EXPOSURE


Source Oliver Wyman












suppliers


risk exposure
















CONCLUSION










ABOUT THE AUTHORS

MICHAEL J DENTON






ALEX WITTENBERG










wwwoliverwymancom




MIChAEL J DENTON


ALEx WITTENBERG


BRIAN T KALISh


Oliver Wyman
File Attachment

intRoduCtion









Output prices



COMPANY





Input prices





















5 NET EXPOSURE

4 RISK MANAGEMENT

PORTFOLIO

3 GROSS EXPOSURE


PURCHASE VOLUMES

1 COMMODITY PRICE

PROJECTIONS

STEPS

























may evolve





















time horizon


ReadMe


Interface

Interface

REF
1

Cmdy Price Proj

Invisible
Grey
Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
124418764137
1367693617635
2648580611483
786217932233
803244438443
5605736599794
124418764137
4238042982159
1367693617635
1589462370676
2648580611483
803244438443
786217932233
0
803244438443

Correlations

5
95
Mean
Sugar
01107087317
03452715728
02
00854552129
04050827214
021
00695646039
04616729635
022
0061034605
05340468686
023


Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum

Gross Exposure

REF
EPS-at-risk
1

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

REF
EBITDA
1


Diesel
Electricity
Natural gas
Crude oil
Price change
EPS impact
Invisible
Grey
Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
2012 Gross Exposure
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
Aluminum
1912572265773
1138117311849
1319658025171
11406289411
1162397994146
3734236225276
1912572265773
2596118913427
1138117311849
1276460888256
1319658025171
1162397994146
11406289411
0
1162397994146
5
95
Mean
Natural Gas
40688610903
79154680028
57310928297
32742030186
84855775584
57310928297
28887025303
92658501718
57310928297
26679947564
10281600624
57310928297

Net Exposure

5
95
Mean
Electricity
344141498094
1003995388957
622705433902
264877650618
1259146360173
622705433902
219723962528
1384358671012
6227
15528763279
1491896493046
622705433902

Fin Statement

5
95
Mean
Diesel
16508189205
29538139317
22444582473
14672697038
31955148416
22444582473
13074767002
36018057848
22444582473
11953891033
37258114813
22444582473


5
95
Mean
Aluminum
134769028369
254013105136
1878
119721652401
284279599425
187771063122
106347176349
316018108859
187771063122
95839609124
346925945325
187771063122

Graph support

Sugar
Natural gas
Electricity
Diesel
Aluminum
128
96
1
16
16
134
101
1
168
17
141
106
1
176
18
150
111
1
185
19

95ile
5ile
Earnings statement
-161353539101
1326569803377
611516334878
-421367106558
1798147036403
760774397443
-642177203637
2144399264928
918591594906
-1050874848209
2521161989213
1080153466317





Oliver Wyman
File Attachment









elasticity analysis






























































c Financial hedging



power to recover


revenue management



cost management



structured deals


capacity here)


integration eg


retail trading

examPle strategies


mechanisms (across


product portfolio)



purchase contracts









limit downside


with contracts with


underlying exposure





contribute greatest




to customers


earnings certainty




to supplier under

certain structures



and volatility






risk exposure


products or move to



product price



for risk sharing

bull need to find

receptive suppliers





cross-hedging



for joint ventures

or acquisitions


complexity


step 5 net exposuRe








the organization

























earnings profile






individual bu level


of probability








on earningsrdquo


ConClusion













other commodities






















wwwoliverwymancom


AuthoRs






Invisible 5606 4238 1589 803 00

Grey 1244 1368 2649 786 803

Sugar 1244 186 261 341 456 1244

Natural gas 1368 210 278 375 505 1368

Electricity 2649 381 636 762 869 2649

Diesel 786 113 160 239 274 786

Aluminum 803 106 164 231 302 803


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sugar 12800 13400 14100 15000

Natural gas 960 1010 1060 1110


Diesel 1600 1680 1760 1850

Aluminum 160 170 180 190



Invisible 3734 2596 1276 1162 00

Grey 1913 1138 1320 114 1162

Sugar 1913 207 404 530 771 1913

Natural gas 1138 168 250 348 372 1138

Electricity 1320 221 266 331 502 1320

Diesel 114 26 39 12 38 114

Aluminum 1162 151 223 340 448 1162


Cost (95)



Sugar 463 686 840 1116 463 686 840 1116 3105


Price 036 051 060 074

Natural gas 718 829 956 1008 718 829 956 1008 3511

Volume 96 101 106 111 718 829 956 1008 3511 Unhedged

Price 75 82 90 91

Electricity 844 888 953 1125 844 888 953 1125 3810

Volume 10 10 10 10 844 888 953 1125 3810 Unhedged

Price 844 888 953 1125

Diesel 385 416 407 453 385 416 407 453 1660

Volume 160 168 176 185 385 416 407 453 1660 Unhedged

Price 24 25 23 24

Aluminum 451 543 678 805 451 543 678 805 2477

Volume 16 17 18 19 451 543 678 805 2476841735006 Unhedged

Price 282 319 377 424

Total 2861 3361 3834 4507 2861 3361 3834 4507 14564

2861 3361 3834 4507 14563772697504 Unhedged

Cost (5)



Sugar 179 142 141 119 179 142 141 119 581


Price 014 011 010 008

Natural gas 347 283 251 241 347 283 251 241 1123

Volume 96 101 106 111 347 283 251 241 1123 Unhedged

Price 36 28 24 22

Electricity 332 223 176 138 332 223 176 138 868

Volume 10 10 10 10 332 223 176 138 868 Unhedged

Price 332 223 176 138

Diesel 275 264 244 231 275 264 244 231 1015

Volume 160 168 176 185 275 264 244 231 1015 Unhedged

Price 17 16 14 12

Aluminum 241 230 236 205 241 230 236 205 911

Volume 16 17 18 19 241 230 236 205 911127595797 Unhedged

Price 150 135 131 108

Total 1373 1142 1048 935 1373 1142 1048 935 4498

95ile 5ile

Sales 480 504 529 556 480 504 529 556

Fixed Costs 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

Variable Costs 286 336 383 451 137 114 105 93


EBITDA (16) (42) (64) (105) 133 180 214 252


[Optional comments]



































































































Earnings statement


Sales 48000 50400 52920 55560 206880

Volume 320000 336000 352800 370400 1379200

Price ($) 015 015 015 015

000


Fixed Costs 12000 12000 12000 12000 48000

Sugar ($lbs) 2560 2814 3102 3450 11926

Volume (lbs) 12800 13400 14100 15000

Price 020 021 022 023

000


Volume 960 1010 1060 1110

Price 573 573 573 573

000


Volume 100 100 100 100

Price 6227 6227 6227 6227

000


Volume 1600 1680 1760 1850

Price 224 224 224 224

000

Aluminum 3005 3192 3380 3568 13144

Volume 160 170 180 190

Price 1878 1878 1878 1878

Variable Costs 20885 21792 22734 23758 89170

000


000

EBITDA 6115 7608 9186 10802 33710

Impact of hedging


Futures Used

Sugar No

Natural gas No

Electricity No

Diesel No

Aluminum No

Net exposure (95)



Sugar 463 686 840 1116 207 404 530 771 1913

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500

Price 036 051 060 074

00 00 00 00 00

Natural gas 718 829 956 1008 168 250 348 372 1138

Volume 96 101 106 111

Price 75 82 90 91

00 00 00 00 00

Electricity 844 888 953 1125 221 266 331 502 1320

Volume 10 10 10 10

Price 844 888 953 1125

00 00 00 00 00

Diesel 385 416 407 453 26 39 12 38 114

Volume 160 168 176 185

Price 24 25 23 24

00 00 00 00 00

Aluminum 451 543 678 805 151 223 340 448 1162

Volume 16 17 18 19

Price 282 319 377 424

Total 2861 3361 3834 4507 773 1182 1561 2131 5647





Mean 020 021 022 023 573 573 573 573 6227 6227 6227 6227 224 224 224 224 1878 1878 1878 1878

Volatility 070 070 070 070 048 048 048 048 069 069 069 069 037 037 037 037 032 032 032 032

Time 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100

Volume 12800 13400 14100 15000 960 1010 1060 1110 100 100 100 100 1600 1680 1760 1850 160 170 180 190

Simulated

5 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081 48715

95 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238 145722

Std Dev 007 010 012 016 135 186 238 270 2100 3074 3713 4521 044 062 077 091 339 493 596 707

Mean


32380 47 008 005 004 004 308 247 192 177 2637 1898 1408 972 133 105 086 075 1126 925 815 739 32380

33948 42 012 010 008 006 296 216 169 151 2310 1435 986 771 150 121 109 090 1253 1054 940 789 33948

39948 55 012 009 008 006 353 282 228 208 3268 2446 1989 1481 157 129 112 111 1155 968 849 685 39948

43542 60 013 012 010 009 370 298 275 241 3023 2238 1947 1441 142 117 100 085 1524 1373 1335 1103 43542

44977 68 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081 44977

48911 50 016 014 012 010 409 346 296 273 3448 2728 2433 1680 165 158 139 134 1336 1151 989 956 48911

49824 97 011 009 007 006 416 329 290 268 3611 2898 2629 1945 186 179 158 148 1560 1397 1335 1168 49824

52614 9 017 017 016 015 434 352 335 309 3687 2659 2208 1557 167 147 126 120 1507 1377 1248 1173 52614

54247 89 017 015 016 016 439 390 356 319 4202 3278 2938 2741 165 140 135 115 1302 1087 949 834 54247

54467 29 011 008 006 006 422 348 290 276 4695 3992 3213 2735 174 165 142 131 1689 1645 1658 1518 54467

56081 37 018 016 015 015 431 389 338 303 4107 3434 3157 2520 187 171 151 142 1348 1200 1067 959 56081

56950 66 016 015 015 013 456 401 376 341 4018 3011 2673 2147 167 150 131 133 1735 1631 1514 1358 56950

58740 44 016 014 014 014 417 358 318 288 4373 3420 2897 2543 179 161 145 128 1837 1849 1811 1783 58740

59233 63 013 011 010 008 463 424 354 346 3838 3269 2540 2223 192 178 165 159 1915 1908 1952 1890 59233

60239 11 011 008 006 005 449 408 354 334 4758 3935 3524 3236 195 191 176 153 1871 1777 1795 1751 60239

60316 3 010 008 007 006 446 413 362 318 4810 4104 3705 3050 217 227 218 212 1520 1456 1268 1213 60316

61664 56 016 014 013 014 465 409 371 337 4004 3018 2627 2306 213 212 214 195 1723 1644 1539 1573 61664

65269 4 012 010 009 008 499 466 440 399 4679 4289 4175 3630 227 222 202 207 1564 1407 1328 1321 65269

65273 92 019 019 017 020 468 452 412 386 4681 3784 3476 3030 202 189 181 173 1550 1325 1272 1204 65273

65764 69 014 014 013 012 469 456 424 396 4095 3235 2716 2469 232 218 235 215 1846 1783 1769 1759 65764

65876 93 009 007 005 004 487 414 388 392 5470 4414 3990 3422 216 208 204 197 1936 1918 2013 2008 65876

66078 87 017 017 017 017 459 442 370 359 4358 3610 2995 2507 211 198 192 184 1850 1834 1860 1886 66078

66116 74 012 010 009 007 506 470 436 431 5243 4758 4687 3999 194 178 162 148 1729 1608 1574 1632 66116

66562 28 016 013 012 012 466 437 425 368 4837 4339 3786 3072 208 203 201 172 1790 1811 1739 1686 66562

66781 5 014 012 014 010 479 493 416 361 5031 4209 3839 3683 225 222 228 236 1494 1374 1259 1205 66781

68244 27 015 014 012 013 505 465 422 433 6111 5940 5338 4822 170 152 131 134 1540 1373 1368 1291 68244

69290 94 012 011 009 008 525 506 477 455 5461 5197 4182 3541 207 214 183 193 1749 1664 1613 1559 69290

69701 32 029 030 034 038 498 443 395 349 4147 3298 2974 2512 194 179 169 151 1517 1360 1312 1209 69701

70796 10 029 033 037 040 417 389 337 296 4868 4408 3809 3401 181 167 143 145 1538 1394 1279 1158 70796

71222 62 013 011 011 009 569 530 507 493 5343 4890 4534 4122 232 225 235 244 1432 1283 1141 991 71222

71261 45 024 026 026 026 468 423 393 370 4820 3878 3436 2825 208 203 188 169 1724 1672 1721 1691 71261

72702 91 011 010 008 007 510 496 467 432 5667 5025 4150 4024 221 204 200 193 2037 2135 2235 2228 72702

73734 20 012 009 008 008 545 525 532 483 4964 4978 4418 3734 252 246 240 242 1773 1793 1792 1550 73734

73801 52 014 013 011 011 544 544 491 505 6007 5243 4823 4922 188 177 166 155 1851 1899 1771 1806 73801

74108 88 015 015 012 012 521 472 428 410 5694 5653 4597 4234 237 251 240 237 1725 1626 1572 1414 74108

74317 1 013 012 011 009 497 415 414 379 5566 5460 4956 4077 238 249 243 227 2014 2054 1994 2024 74317

74660 22 022 024 022 024 539 489 513 474 5323 4839 4078 3974 207 195 204 187 1525 1374 1241 1160 74660

74808 31 016 014 013 013 551 524 504 420 5722 4948 4442 4039 196 175 162 159 2100 2133 2163 2368 74808

74998 82 025 028 027 031 459 404 360 341 4251 3653 3090 2716 218 209 213 217 2113 2139 2220 2171 74998

75350 8 015 015 012 011 534 484 458 411 5691 5348 5296 5469 186 179 154 161 2101 2134 2257 2146 75350

75850 85 019 019 019 018 568 505 491 479 6077 5656 5435 5757 203 183 174 162 1503 1310 1234 1158 75850

76270 2 021 018 018 018 538 515 500 489 5231 5090 4596 4623 223 220 231 203 1613 1450 1451 1409 76270

78037 30 017 016 015 014 548 513 485 504 6066 6050 5382 5314 221 227 218 204 1640 1495 1485 1375 78037

78226 23 016 015 014 011 529 506 495 414 5761 6103 5365 4695 208 203 199 201 2090 2095 2089 2103 78226

81022 96 016 016 014 014 534 539 504 468 6087 5637 6034 5187 234 241 239 242 1821 1777 1749 1662 81022

82068 99 021 021 022 021 546 510 479 489 5851 5276 5787 4832 232 222 218 237 1745 1706 1664 1748 82068

82643 35 012 010 009 008 551 532 565 488 6985 7363 6872 6115 212 219 201 204 1956 2033 1866 1858 82643

87060 14 016 014 012 011 603 590 570 649 6301 6010 5819 5771 221 210 220 213 2139 2281 2226 2447 87060

87614 83 032 040 045 058 565 534 572 519 5492 5063 4457 4135 200 189 189 176 1395 1244 1164 1068 87614

89614 46 019 020 020 019 576 637 610 610 6533 6598 6666 6786 204 207 181 181 1946 1988 2078 1928 89614

90297 100 016 014 012 011 571 562 594 523 6238 6149 6375 6392 261 271 285 290 2084 2148 2302 2267 90297

91492 49 015 015 013 014 588 581 590 582 7612 9229 8377 8573 202 190 182 178 1837 1833 1815 1762 91492

92285 79 028 030 037 038 563 538 538 539 6069 6428 5732 5382 207 198 178 169 1997 2051 2146 2150 92285

92517 80 021 020 024 023 624 649 634 649 5664 5628 4862 4865 249 276 277 279 1991 1978 2042 2079 92517

92520 58 025 029 028 032 611 702 664 720 5773 6288 5346 5787 224 215 201 208 1695 1604 1501 1466 92520

93297 38 025 028 030 029 581 611 525 547 5830 4962 4681 4374 253 261 269 270 2207 2307 2331 2511 93297

93492 84 020 018 018 018 624 658 693 620 6792 7087 6486 6822 229 248 240 235 1872 1857 1800 1782 93492

94010 72 019 016 017 016 645 637 681 608 6432 6267 6364 5536 276 315 309 338 1695 1730 1689 1702 94010

95355 25 022 022 023 024 617 614 641 661 7381 7741 7734 7355 201 183 181 167 1952 1996 2017 1982 95355

95981 51 022 021 024 022 631 654 628 656 6512 6238 6863 5733 235 237 228 245 2106 2188 2174 2310 95981

96590 70 019 020 019 018 640 674 670 672 6785 6304 6419 6186 250 247 247 241 2062 2175 2421 2430 96590

96659 59 015 015 013 011 641 694 682 672 6932 7099 7472 6962 253 283 294 282 1955 1988 1919 1987 96659

98984 39 022 024 024 027 682 674 703 690 6289 6707 6188 5735 233 249 244 250 2093 2091 2235 2335 98984

99473 64 014 013 011 010 665 685 674 711 7254 7577 8242 7389 276 284 312 343 1902 1877 1784 1881 99473

100438 18 021 024 021 021 643 705 699 679 7545 8706 7888 7960 234 236 232 234 1795 1682 1688 1643 100438

104925 26 030 040 036 047 638 646 611 644 7631 8381 7592 8300 200 186 176 173 1881 1847 1746 1805 104925

106683 71 020 021 023 022 667 677 707 752 8146 8325 8879 8341 237 241 236 242 2093 2275 2232 2274 106683

107046 48 031 036 038 043 681 774 787 860 5782 6008 6054 5691 259 262 265 272 1842 1834 1805 1657 107046

108929 75 028 030 034 039 705 726 835 795 6408 6759 6094 5739 270 286 301 326 1937 1954 1896 1922 108929

109789 17 016 015 014 013 706 792 871 828 9457 9496 9557 11733 234 246 232 254 1799 1710 1649 1544 109789

109940 98 026 031 032 038 703 764 801 853 7465 7940 7971 6489 264 280 283 303 1679 1496 1411 1393 109940

111963 61 022 024 022 025 715 776 784 849 7281 8061 8721 8562 266 276 283 281 2104 2187 2130 2121 111963

113140 41 025 030 027 031 709 722 813 858 8066 8128 9075 8288 271 290 305 319 1724 1582 1602 1558 113140

114475 15 025 029 032 034 680 714 712 755 8168 8424 9094 8582 269 290 309 299 1998 1996 1966 1927 114475

115420 76 023 024 021 021 682 710 721 788 7888 7858 8900 8340 300 338 360 392 2170 2212 2295 2479 115420

115470 12 020 020 022 023 665 668 712 637 9215 11363 13842 14327 222 215 215 184 1873 1818 1809 1839 115470

115543 43 018 017 016 014 708 740 776 888 8939 10641 10054 10632 273 289 295 316 1937 1932 1994 1938 115543

115599 16 023 026 023 027 735 805 871 836 7317 8319 8599 9260 256 267 265 313 2153 2255 2268 2233 115599

115628 95 014 012 011 010 653 681 623 720 8745 9344 10628 11302 292 316 329 347 2366 2750 2806 3056 115628

115695 13 021 021 020 023 783 842 842 907 8811 9563 8686 9220 246 234 246 254 2124 2197 2307 2336 115695

116747 78 025 025 024 031 675 707 764 751 8609 9940 9632 11128 260 266 267 275 2037 2116 2033 2058 116747

118794 33 023 024 027 029 678 695 724 732 7868 8230 8443 8449 255 275 265 294 2745 3142 3492 3808 118794

120798 67 023 023 025 028 701 829 848 816 8495 9001 9754 9979 295 315 344 372 1881 1975 1968 1960 120798

122134 7 021 024 023 025 704 782 813 827 9526 10396 11149 12151 277 296 312 350 1785 1741 1742 1729 122134

123516 73 022 024 026 026 738 788 831 860 8206 8564 9419 8704 321 362 377 440 2082 2305 2281 2263 123516

125606 90 029 035 042 044 638 663 758 822 8360 9427 9758 9092 272 294 308 317 2294 2392 2612 2639 125606

126928 54 036 045 051 053 751 805 954 911 7050 7643 7510 7316 268 283 290 317 2151 2212 2363 2417 126928

128846 77 037 043 046 053 728 846 879 845 8603 8376 9776 10368 237 249 263 261 1994 2163 2185 2264 128846

128878 6 025 028 028 035 774 786 849 960 8847 8937 10590 13150 263 285 280 313 2148 2332 2371 2513 128878

130807 34 035 040 049 054 782 843 925 979 7755 7821 8166 8865 288 307 344 334 1997 2059 2095 2239 130807

140398 19 017 016 016 015 791 795 881 1053 10420 12831 14842 14880 276 294 302 301 2645 3061 3158 3517 140398

142414 81 036 049 058 075 682 763 821 821 8688 10002 9662 11595 256 263 267 272 2539 2827 3224 3603 142414

143917 53 017 016 016 014 796 919 1029 1080 10035 12687 12587 16905 290 319 368 353 2432 2804 2919 3292 143917

145005 65 026 029 035 036 791 844 898 1008 9727 10940 12787 13483 301 335 351 371 2458 2857 3022 3126 145005

145638 36 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238 145638

147330 40 025 030 035 033 768 823 834 969 10134 12586 13876 15668 292 311 371 392 2352 2714 2751 2883 147330

149955 86 025 028 029 031 822 902 905 1027 9657 11730 12287 13947 371 443 494 567 2146 2219 2432 2437 149955

167385 24 025 028 027 033 889 1039 1216 1304 11617 15334 16748 19296 285 288 321 318 2559 2842 3200 3467 167385

178469 57 035 044 057 076 868 941 1085 1127 10866 14632 17431 20089 263 292 289 318 2723 3330 3618 3836 178469

195830 21 026 028 031 033 980 1173 1531 1623 12934 17045 20568 25587 356 432 504 555 2168 2201 2225 2430 195830


Futures Description







Gross Exposure



Sugar 442 543 651 801 186 261 341 456 1244

Volume (lbs) 1280 1340 1410 1500

Price 035 041 046 053

00 00 00 00 00

Natural gas 760 857 982 1141 210 278 375 505 1368

Volume (MMBTU) 96 101 106 111

Price 792 849 927 1028

00 00 00 00 00

Electricity 1004 1259 1384 1492 381 636 762 869 2649

Volume (MWh) 10 10 10 10

Price 1004 1259 1384 1492

00 00 00 00 00

Diesel 473 537 634 689 113 160 239 274 786

Volume (gal) 160 168 176 185

Price 295 320 360 373

00 00 00 00 00

Aluminum 406 483 569 659 106 164 231 302 803


Price 2540 2843 3160 3469

Total 3085 3679 4220 4783 996 1500 1947 2407 6850



Sales 48000 50400 52920 55560 206880

Volume 320000 336000 352800 370400 1379200

Price ($) 015 015 015 015 016

000


Fixed Costs 12000 12000 12000 12000 48000

Sugar ($) 2560 2814 3102 3450 11926

Volume (lb) 12800 13400 14100 15000

($lb) 020 021 022 023

000

Natural gas ($) 5502 5788 6075 6362 23727

Volume (MMBTU) 960 1010 1060 1110

Price ($MMBTU) 573 573 573 573

000

Electricity ($) 6227 6227 6227 6227 24908

Volume 100 100 100 100

Price 6227 6227 6227 6227

000

Diesel ($l) 3591 3771 3950 4152 15464

Volume 1600 1680 1760 1850

Price 224 224 224 224

000

Aluminum ($) 3005 3192 3380 3568 13144

Volume 160 170 180 190

Price 1878 1878 1878 1878

Variable Costs 20885 21792 22734 23758 89170

Correlations




Sugar Q1 100 099 099 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q2 099 100 099 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q3 099 099 100 099 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Q4 099 099 099 100 065 065 065 065 055 055 055 055 047 047 047 047 043 043 043 043

Nat Gas Q1 065 065 065 065 100 099 099 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q2 065 065 065 065 099 100 099 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q3 065 065 065 065 099 099 100 099 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Q4 065 065 065 065 099 099 099 100 094 094 094 094 086 086 086 086 069 069 069 069

Electricity Q1 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 100 099 099 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q2 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 100 099 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q3 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 099 100 099 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Q4 055 055 055 055 094 094 094 094 099 099 099 100 082 082 082 082 071 071 071 071

Diesel Q1 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 100 099 099 099 066 066 066 066

Q2 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 100 099 099 066 066 066 066

Q3 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 099 100 099 066 066 066 066

Q4 047 047 047 047 086 086 086 086 082 082 082 082 099 099 099 100 066 066 066 066

Aluminum Q1 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 100 099 099 099

Q2 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 100 099 099

Q3 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 099 100 099

Q4 043 043 043 043 069 069 069 069 071 071 071 071 066 066 066 066 099 099 099 100





1 (108) (092) (082) (107) (047) (078) (057) (062) (015) (003) (008) (027) 041 052 041 022 052 051 036 039

2 031 (007) (006) (003) (015) (014) (012) (009) (033) (017) (021) (009) 005 005 026 (009) (087) (103) (079) (074)

3 (176) (167) (159) (155) (092) (079) (090) (098) (058) (061) (057) (069) (009) 018 007 002 (124) (101) (128) (121)

4 (134) (119) (112) (122) (046) (044) (043) (052) (066) (052) (037) (044) 016 009 (016) (003) (106) (116) (111) (094)

5 (075) (080) (049) (077) (063) (028) (057) (072) (045) (056) (051) (042) 011 010 021 032 (135) (127) (130) (123)

6 082 082 072 095 137 110 115 132 119 098 119 143 095 104 085 108 092 107 098 107

7 035 050 038 044 098 108 105 100 140 129 127 131 123 119 119 139 (024) (022) (013) (010)

8 (056) (044) (076) (066) (017) (033) (033) (045) (009) (007) 003 016 (091) (074) (102) (071) 078 068 080 058

9 (025) (015) (023) (027) (104) (127) (109) (105) (135) (150) (144) (166) (149) (148) (165) (151) (130) (126) (134) (131)

10 126 116 115 112 (120) (097) (107) (114) (054) (046) (052) (053) (107) (099) (125) (099) (117) (120) (125) (135)

11 (166) (182) (173) (174) (090) (083) (095) (089) (061) (070) (065) (060) (066) (048) (061) (084) 006 (013) (002) (006)

12 014 014 034 034 074 062 073 046 131 148 164 155 003 (003) 002 (035) 006 (003) 000 010

13 034 028 011 035 142 130 113 120 118 112 086 091 060 030 044 052 085 081 088 084

14 (048) (059) (063) (068) 033 026 020 050 021 017 019 023 001 (012) 009 005 089 097 075 099

15 079 091 090 091 083 082 073 081 096 086 093 081 107 112 115 096 047 038 030 024

16 058 071 034 059 116 117 122 103 064 084 084 092 081 080 068 108 093 092 082 070

17 (046) (041) (043) (048) 099 112 121 101 138 111 102 126 031 049 027 052 (019) (030) (033) (045)

18 030 052 025 024 060 078 068 059 073 093 069 070 031 033 026 030 (020) (037) (024) (026)

19 (034) (031) (025) (026) 146 114 124 151 166 173 175 161 121 116 108 097 222 227 201 212

20 (119) (138) (136) (114) (009) (009) 003 (012) (048) (021) (028) (040) 073 048 037 039 (028) (009) (003) (044)

21 092 081 085 085 236 228 257 241 229 231 230 239 259 264 269 263 098 082 075 097

22 047 052 031 042 (014) (030) (006) (016) (028) (027) (041) (031) (035) (040) (014) (031) (122) (127) (135) (134)

23 (043) (047) (046) (069) (021) (019) (014) (044) (005) 020 005 (006) (032) (025) (021) (012) 075 060 052 051

24 082 083 064 089 195 192 202 195 198 209 195 198 138 109 128 113 201 194 206 208

25 039 030 035 039 042 037 048 054 067 069 066 059 (050) (065) (051) (061) 032 038 040 033

26 130 157 113 138 057 052 036 048 076 085 063 076 (053) (058) (061) (052) 009 004 (012) 004

27 (063) (063) (067) (046) (041) (045) (053) (035) 012 015 004 (003) (140) (136) (152) (120) (116) (127) (101) (101)

28 (051) (067) (068) (058) (075) (063) (051) (068) (056) (050) (053) (068) (031) (025) (019) (053) (022) (005) (014) (018)

29 (165) (163) (176) (155) (115) (130) (143) (128) (065) (067) (081) (085) (128) (105) (126) (127) (058) (047) (031) (050)

30 (029) (031) (029) (032) (007) (016) (019) (003) 010 018 005 012 001 017 007 (007) (077) (089) (071) (081)

31 (040) (055) (058) (043) (004) (009) (010) (041) (007) (023) (027) (028) (065) (082) (086) (075) 078 068 065 089

32 123 098 102 105 (047) (059) (069) (079) (101) (106) (094) (097) (069) (074) (072) (089) (125) (131) (115) (122)

33 057 052 066 070 082 074 077 075 085 082 081 079 079 090 068 091 245 239 238 237

34 174 156 162 156 142 131 136 135 081 071 075 086 143 133 150 126 046 052 053 071

35 (121) (127) (111) (122) (004) (005) 018 (009) 051 059 046 032 (021) 003 (018) (008) 034 046 012 013

36 187 205 195 203 123 123 130 120 105 097 101 120 046 051 025 042 262 246 265 270

37 (019) (031) (029) (029) (106) (097) (106) (108) (103) (098) (084) (097) (090) (092) (107) (106) (199) (187) (190) (194)

38 080 080 081 069 018 036 (001) 014 (002) (022) (018) (017) 074 071 073 069 109 102 092 107

39 040 053 044 058 085 065 070 063 020 040 029 023 029 053 042 047 076 059 077 084

40 085 100 108 089 134 123 111 133 158 169 164 168 151 138 173 169 149 174 152 150

41 082 097 061 076 101 085 105 108 092 079 093 076 111 111 112 113 (045) (064) (044) (042)

42 (123) (134) (135) (147) (263) (271) (274) (254) (270) (276) (279) (268) (210) (223) (208) (227) (245) (244) (236) (255)

43 (016) (018) (018) (034) 100 092 094 115 122 134 110 112 115 109 102 111 027 024 035 026

44 (048) (052) (042) (035) (120) (122) (121) (119) (085) (098) (098) (095) (112) (115) (120) (132) (006) 005 001 (000)

45 069 067 059 054 (073) (073) (070) (067) (057) (073) (070) (080) (033) (026) (039) (057) (045) (040) (018) (017)

46 005 011 013 005 014 048 036 037 031 036 041 047 (043) (018) (052) (039) 030 037 050 024

47 (235) (256) (232) (222) (247) (231) (242) (221) (232) (219) (219) (235) (272) (277) (282) (278) (312) (301) (287) (275)

48 143 131 119 126 084 106 097 108 (004) 017 025 021 087 072 067 071 (004) 001 (000) (023)

49 (063) (045) (054) (035) 023 021 028 027 075 105 080 081 (048) (052) (049) (045) (006) 001 002 (004)

50 (055) (060) (066) (079) (129) (132) (138) (130) (154) (145) (127) (155) (157) (121) (133) (121) (205) (205) (217) (195)

51 039 028 044 031 052 056 043 052 030 025 046 023 035 034 022 042 079 079 067 081

52 (087) (075) (088) (067) (009) 002 (016) (002) 007 (011) (013) 000 (087) (077) (079) (081) (001) 016 (007) 004

53 (032) (024) (025) (035) 149 156 161 156 156 170 148 179 148 147 170 141 170 188 173 191

54 186 179 168 155 124 117 143 121 053 066 061 058 106 101 095 112 093 084 097 095

55 (135) (144) (137) (150) (190) (192) (201) (188) (170) (167) (161) (174) (185) (199) (201) (171) (296) (281) (273) (299)

56 (052) (051) (058) (040) (075) (083) (084) (087) (111) (124) (115) (109) (019) (009) 002 (019) (046) (047) (058) (039)

57 173 174 186 206 185 163 174 165 179 199 202 204 095 113 095 113 240 264 251 239

58 076 087 072 084 039 077 056 072 (005) 026 004 024 008 (004) (018) (002) (056) (058) (067) (061)

59 (072) (037) (056) (072) 059 073 063 057 048 051 060 051 074 102 100 080 033 037 022 034

60 (109) (093) (104) (106) (170) (175) (156) (156) (192) (185) (165) (178) (238) (234) (237) (243) (122) (127) (109) (150)

61 044 048 032 047 104 106 096 106 063 077 086 081 102 092 089 080 079 079 059 054

62 (105) (101) (086) (094) 009 (006) (009) (007) (027) (025) (023) (025) 026 015 030 041 (161) (157) (166) (184)

63 (095) (103) (105) (122) (077) (072) (095) (081) (123) (108) (120) (115) (077) (075) (081) (075) 020 018 028 018

64 (079) (070) (083) (086) 074 070 060 069 062 065 077 059 121 103 119 133 016 011 (005) 017

65 096 093 106 097 146 131 129 142 147 140 150 146 169 166 156 154 176 197 186 175

66 (049) (046) (037) (042) (084) (088) (081) (084) (110) (125) (112) (120) (149) (140) (151) (124) (042) (051) (064) (085)

67 061 045 052 064 096 126 115 098 107 100 105 103 157 142 150 155 009 034 031 029

68 (085) (114) (100) (117) (180) (194) (192) (178) (165) (186) (182) (184) (135) (123) (134) (140) (131) (134) (116) (157)

69 (084) (062) (057) (060) (071) (050) (052) (053) (104) (110) (109) (100) 028 002 031 008 (003) (012) (008) (004)

70 (002) 011 007 002 058 065 058 057 042 027 035 034 069 050 045 037 066 076 106 097

71 023 024 035 027 075 066 071 081 095 084 089 077 039 040 032 039 076 096 076 076

72 (005) (026) (008) (013) 061 048 062 036 027 026 034 017 121 143 116 129 (056) (025) (024) (015)

73 048 050 056 053 118 111 110 109 097 090 099 083 203 196 178 200 072 102 084 074

74 (119) (122) (110) (137) (040) (041) (045) (036) (033) (031) (018) (030) (071) (076) (086) (093) (044) (057) (050) (028)

75 114 095 103 110 098 087 111 092 026 041 026 023 109 106 108 120 027 029 017 023

76 057 048 022 022 085 080 076 090 086 072 090 077 167 169 163 169 098 084 086 103

77 190 171 152 155 112 132 124 105 111 085 105 108 040 053 065 059 046 074 069 075

78 077 059 048 077 080 079 090 080 111 120 103 119 089 077 070 073 059 064 042 045

79 118 100 116 107 005 (002) 006 011 010 031 016 013 (033) (034) (056) (059) 046 050 062 058

80 033 017 045 032 047 053 045 050 (010) 004 (012) (001) 066 093 082 077 045 034 044 048

81 182 197 190 205 085 101 107 099 114 122 103 125 081 073 071 071 197 192 209 220

82 076 081 062 078 (080) (086) (091) (084) (093) (085) (087) (086) (006) (014) (000) 009 082 069 074 061

83 156 153 147 166 006 (004) 020 003 (019) (018) (026) (025) (052) (052) (037) (048) (178) (171) (159) (160)

84 017 (010) (000) 003 048 058 066 040 042 051 037 048 020 052 037 030 006 006 (001) (000)

85 006 007 006 (000) 009 (020) (017) (013) 010 005 007 023 (045) (064) (063) (069) (131) (148) (138) (135)

86 078 080 076 077 162 150 131 145 144 154 144 151 281 273 262 269 091 085 107 097

87 (034) (019) (010) (011) (080) (060) (085) (074) (086) (087) (093) (097) (024) (034) (033) (036) (001) 001 010 017

88 (070) (046) (064) (058) (028) (040) (049) (046) (009) 005 (021) (021) 038 056 036 033 (045) (052) (050) (073)

89 (031) (037) (025) (013) (099) (097) (094) (098) (097) (107) (096) (084) (158) (167) (144) (163) (221) (230) (232) (238)

90 123 130 136 128 057 060 088 099 103 109 105 089 112 116 115 112 133 118 133 122

91 (146) (126) (133) (132) (037) (026) (029) (035) (010) (020) (038) (029) 000 (024) (020) (022) 059 068 077 069

92 (001) 007 (009) 018 (073) (053) (058) (058) (065) (078) (068) (070) (048) (052) (051) (052) (112) (143) (127) (123)

93 (226) (202) (225) (216) (056) (079) (073) (055) (020) (046) (045) (052) (011) (017) (014) (016) 027 021 039 037

94 (131) (113) (112) (115) (025) (019) (023) (024) (021) (013) (037) (047) (034) (005) (048) (023) (037) (042) (041) (042)

95 (087) (084) (091) (090) 066 068 041 072 116 108 119 121 152 144 136 136 152 180 159 168

96 (042) (035) (040) (038) (018) (001) (010) (018) 011 004 025 008 031 040 035 039 (011) (013) (012) (022)

97 (151) (157) (167) (162) (122) (147) (143) (134) (141) (132) (114) (134) (093) (074) (093) (093) (108) (119) (109) (132)

98 096 101 091 109 097 102 101 107 070 074 071 040 097 098 089 099 (062) (089) (089) (077)

99 033 028 029 021 (008) (017) (022) (009) (001) (010) 018 (002) 027 008 007 033 (038) (031) (030) (006)

100 (055) (051) (066) (067) 011 011 029 005 018 022 034 038 091 085 091 088 073 071 087 075

Price Simulations




Mean 020 021 022 023 573 573 573 573 6227 6227 6227 6227 224 224 224 224 1878 1878 1878 1878

Volatility 070 070 070 070 048 048 048 048 069 069 069 069 037 037 037 037 032 032 032 032

Time 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100 025 050 075 100

Simulated

5 011 009 007 006 407 327 289 267 3441 2649 2197 1553 165 147 131 120 1348 1197 1063 958

95 035 041 046 053 792 849 927 1028 10040 12591 13844 14919 295 320 360 373 2540 2843 3160 3469

Std Dev 007 010 012 016 135 186 238 270 2100 3074 3713 4521 044 062 077 091 339 493 596 707

1 013 012 011 009 497 415 414 379 5566 5460 4956 4077 238 249 243 227 2014 2054 1994 2024

2 021 018 018 018 538 515 500 489 5231 5090 4596 4623 223 220 231 203 1613 1450 1451 1409

3 010 008 007 006 446 413 362 318 4810 4104 3705 3050 217 227 218 212 1520 1456 1268 1213

4 012 010 009 008 499 466 440 399 4679 4289 4175 3630 227 222 202 207 1564 1407 1328 1321

5 014 012 014 010 479 493 416 361 5031 4209 3839 3683 225 222 228 236 1494 1374 1259 1205

6 025 028 028 035 774 786 849 960 8847 8937 10590 13150 263 285 280 313 2148 2332 2371 2513

7 021 024 023 025 704 782 813 827 9526 10396 11149 12151 277 296 312 350 1785 1741 1742 1729

8 015 015 012 011 534 484 458 411 5691 5348 5296 5469 186 179 154 161 2101 2134 2257 2146

9 017 017 016 015 434 352 335 309 3687 2659 2208 1557 167 147 126 120 1507 1377 1248 1173

10 029 033 037 040 417 389 337 296 4868 4408 3809 3401 181 167 143 145 1538 1394 1279 1158

11 011 008 006 005 449 408 354 334 4758 3935 3524 3236 195 191 176 153 1871 1777 1795 1751

12 020 020 022 023 665 668 712 637 9215 11363 13842 14327 222 215 215 184 1873 1818 1809 1839

13 021 021 020 023 783 842 842 907 8811 9563 8686 9220 246 234 246 254 2124 2197 2307 2336

14 016 014 012 011 603 590 570 649 6301 6010 5819 5771 221 210 220 213 2139 2281 2226 2447

15 025 029 032 034 680 714 712 755 8168 8424 9094 8582 269 290 309 299 1998 1996 1966 1927

16 023 026 023 027 735 805 871 836 7317 8319 8599 9260 256 267 265 313 2153 2255 2268 2233

17 016 015 014 013 706 792 871 828 9457 9496 9557 11733 234 246 232 254 1799 1710 1649 1544

18 021 024 021 021 643 705 699 679 7545 8706 7888 7960 234 236 232 234 1795 1682 1688 1643

19 017 016 016 015 791 795 881 1053 10420 12831 14842 14880 276 294 302 301 2645 3061 3158 3517

20 012 009 008 008 545 525 532 483 4964 4978 4418 3734 252 246 240 242 1773 1793 1792 1550

21 026 028 031 033 980 1173 1531 1623 12934 17045 20568 25587 356 432 504 555 2168 2201 2225 2430

22 022 024 022 024 539 489 513 474 5323 4839 4078 3974 207 195 204 187 1525 1374 1241 1160

23 016 015 014 011 529 506 495 414 5761 6103 5365 4695 208 203 199 201 2090 2095 2089 2103

24 025 028 027 033 889 1039 1216 1304 11617 15334 16748 19296 285 288 321 318 2559 2842 3200 3467

25 022 022 023 024 617 614 641 661 7381 7741 7734 7355 201 183 181 167 1952 1996 2017 1982

26 030 040 036 047 638 646 611 644 7631 8381 7592 8300 200 186 176 173 1881 1847 1746 1805

27 015 014 012 013 505 465 422 433 6111 5940 5338 4822 170 152 131 134 1540 1373 1368 1291

28 016 013 012 012 466 437 425 368 4837 4339 3786 3072 208 203 201 172 1790 1811 1739 1686

29 011 008 006 006 422 348 290 276 4695 3992 3213 2735 174 165 142 131 1689 1645 1658 1518

30 017 016 015 014 548 513 485 504 6066 6050 5382 5314 221 227 218 204 1640 1495 1485 1375

31 016 014 013 013 551 524 504 420 5722 4948 4442 4039 196 175 162 159 2100 2133 2163 2368

32 029 030 034 038 498 443 395 349 4147 3298 2974 2512 194 179 169 151 1517 1360 1312 1209

33 023 024 027 029 678 695 724 732 7868 8230 8443 8449 255 275 265 294 2745 3142 3492 3808

34 035 040 049 054 782 843 925 979 7755 7821 8166 8865 288 307 344 334 1997 2059 2095 2239

35 012 010 009 008 551 532 565 488 6985 7363 6872 6115 212 219 201 204 1956 2033 1866 1858

36 036 051 060 074 748 821 902 908 8439 8883 9535 11248 240 248 231 245 2820 3191 3766 4238

37 018 016 015 015 431 389 338 303 4107 3434 3157 2520 187 171 151 142 1348 1200 1067 959

38 025 028 030 029 581 611 525 547 5830 4962 4681 4374 253 261 269 270 2207 2307 2331 2511

39 022 024 024 027 682 674 703 690 6289 6707 6188 5735 233 249 244 250 2093 2091 2235 2335

40 025 030 035 033 768 823 834 969 10134 12586 13876 15668 292 311 371 392 2352 2714 2751 2883

41 025 030 027 031 709 722 813 858 8066 8128 9075 8288 271 290 305 319 1724 1582 1602 1558

42 012 010 008 006 296 216 169 151 2310 1435 986 771 150 121 109 090 1253 1054 940 789

43 018 017 016 014 708 740 776 888 8939 10641 10054 10632 273 289 295 316 1937 1932 1994 1938

44 016 014 014 014 417 358 318 288 4373 3420 2897 2543 179 161 145 128 1837 1849 1811 1783

45 024 026 026 026 468 423 393 370 4820 3878 3436 2825 208 203 188 169 1724 1672 1721 1691

46 019 020 020 019 576 637 610 610 6533 6598 6666 6786 204 207 181 181 1946 1988 2078 1928

47 008 005 004 004 308 247 192 177 2637 1898 1408 972 133 105 086 075 1126 925 815 739

48 031 036 038 043 681 774 787 860 5782 6008 6054 5691 259 262 265 272 1842 1834 1805 1657

49 015 015 013 014 588 581 590 582 7612 9229 8377 8573 202 190 182 178 1837 1833 1815 1762

50 016 014 012 010 409 346 296 273 3448 2728 2433 1680 165 158 139 134 1336 1151 989 956

51 022 021 024 022 631 654 628 656 6512 6238 6863 5733 235 237 228 245 2106 2188 2174 2310

52 014 013 011 011 544 544 491 505 6007 5243 4823 4922 188 177 166 155 1851 1899 1771 1806

53 017 016 016 014 796 919 1029 1080 10035 12687 12587 16905 290 319 368 353 2432 2804 2919 3292

54 036 045 051 053 751 805 954 911 7050 7643 7510 7316 268 283 290 317 2151 2212 2363 2417

55 012 009 008 006 353 282 228 208 3268 2446 1989 1481 157 129 112 111 1155 968 849 685

56 016 014 013 014 465 409 371 337 4004 3018 2627 2306 213 212 214 195 1723 1644 1539 1573

57 035 044 057 076 868 941 1085 1127 10866 14632 17431 20089 263 292 289 318 2723 3330 3618 3836

58 025 029 028 032 611 702 664 720 5773 6288 5346 5787 224 215 201 208 1695 1604 1501 1466

59 015 015 013 011 641 694 682 672 6932 7099 7472 6962 253 283 294 282 1955 1988 1919 1987

60 013 012 010 009 370 298 275 241 3023 2238 1947 1441 142 117 100 085 1524 1373 1335 1103

61 022 024 022 025 715 776 784 849 7281 8061 8721 8562 266 276 283 281 2104 2187 2130 2121

62 013 011 011 009 569 530 507 493 5343 4890 4534 4122 232 225 235 244 1432 1283 1141 991

63 013 011 010 008 463 424 354 346 3838 3269 2540 2223 192 178 165 159 1915 1908 1952 1890

64 014 013 011 010 665 685 674 711 7254 7577 8242 7389 276 284 312 343 1902 1877 1784 1881

65 026 029 035 036 791 844 898 1008 9727 10940 12787 13483 301 335 351 371 2458 2857 3022 3126

66 016 015 015 013 456 401 376 341 4018 3011 2673 2147 167 150 131 133 1735 1631 1514 1358

67 023 023 025 028 701 829 848 816 8495 9001 9754 9979 295 315 344 372 1881 1975 1968 1960

68 014 011 010 008 362 280 237 218 3315 2228 1757 1379 172 157 139 125 1503 1351 1309 1081

69 014 014 013 012 469 456 424 396 4095 3235 2716 2469 232 218 235 215 1846 1783 1769 1759

70 019 020 019 018 640 674 670 672 6785 6304 6419 6186 250 247 247 241 2062 2175 2421 2430

71 020 021 023 022 667 677 707 752 8146 8325 8879 8341 237 241 236 242 2093 2275 2232 2274

72 019 016 017 016 645 637 681 608 6432 6267 6364 5536 276 315 309 338 1695 1730 1689 1702

73 022 024 026 026 738 788 831 860 8206 8564 9419 8704 321 362 377 440 2082 2305 2281 2263

74 012 010 009 007 506 470 436 431 5243 4758 4687 3999 194 178 162 148 1729 1608 1574 1632

75 028 030 034 039 705 726 835 795 6408 6759 6094 5739 270 286 301 326 1937 1954 1896 1922

76 023 024 021 021 682 710 721 788 7888 7858 8900 8340 300 338 360 392 2170 2212 2295 2479

77 037 043 046 053 728 846 879 845 8603 8376 9776 10368 237 249 263 261 1994 2163 2185 2264

78 025 025 024 031 675 707 764 751 8609 9940 9632 11128 260 266 267 275 2037 2116 2033 2058

79 028 030 037 038 563 538 538 539 6069 6428 5732 5382 207 198 178 169 1997 2051 2146 2150

80 021 020 024 023 624 649 634 649 5664 5628 4862 4865 249 276 277 279 1991 1978 2042 2079

81 036 049 058 075 682 763 821 821 8688 10002 9662 11595 256 263 267 272 2539 2827 3224 3603

82 025 028 027 031 459 404 360 341 4251 3653 3090 2716 218 209 213 217 2113 2139 2220 2171

83 032 040 045 058 565 534 572 519 5492 5063 4457 4135 200 189 189 176 1395 1244 1164 1068

84 020 018 018 018 624 658 693 620 6792 7087 6486 6822 229 248 240 235 1872 1857 1800 1782

85 019 019 019 018 568 505 491 479 6077 5656 5435 5757 203 183 174 162 1503 1310 1234 1158

86 025 028 029 031 822 902 905 1027 9657 11730 12287 13947 371 443 494 567 2146 2219 2432 2437

87 017 017 017 017 459 442 370 359 4358 3610 2995 2507 211 198 192 184 1850 1834 1860 1886

88 015 015 012 012 521 472 428 410 5694 5653 4597 4234 237 251 240 237 1725 1626 1572 1414

89 017 015 016 016 439 390 356 319 4202 3278 2938 2741 165 140 135 115 1302 1087 949 834

90 029 035 042 044 638 663 758 822 8360 9427 9758 9092 272 294 308 317 2294 2392 2612 2639

91 011 010 008 007 510 496 467 432 5667 5025 4150 4024 221 204 200 193 2037 2135 2235 2228

92 019 019 017 020 468 452 412 386 4681 3784 3476 3030 202 189 181 173 1550 1325 1272 1204

93 009 007 005 004 487 414 388 392 5470 4414 3990 3422 216 208 204 197 1936 1918 2013 2008

94 012 011 009 008 525 506 477 455 5461 5197 4182 3541 207 214 183 193 1749 1664 1613 1559

95 014 012 011 010 653 681 623 720 8745 9344 10628 11302 292 316 329 347 2366 2750 2806 3056

96 016 016 014 014 534 539 504 468 6087 5637 6034 5187 234 241 239 242 1821 1777 1749 1662

97 011 009 007 006 416 329 290 268 3611 2898 2629 1945 186 179 158 148 1560 1397 1335 1168

98 026 031 032 038 703 764 801 853 7465 7940 7971 6489 264 280 283 303 1679 1496 1411 1393

99 021 021 022 021 546 510 479 489 5851 5276 5787 4832 232 222 218 237 1745 1706 1664 1748

100 016 014 012 011 571 562 594 523 6238 6149 6375 6392 261 271 285 290 2084 2148 2302 2267

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2

3 3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4

1

1

185947613236 209700016612 381289955056 113496909508 105940968217

261410846662 278202957602 636440926272 159777507841 164064511715

340758878594 374684278258 761658671012 238893166595 230844682326

456070302878 505106365162 869191059145 27405034829 302394276185

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

4 4 4







1







Sugar ($lbs) $ 020 70 $ 021 70 $ 022 70 $ 023 70 Sales 2069 2069 2069 - 0 2069 2069 - 0



Diesel ($gal) $ 224 37 $ 224 37 $ 224 37 $ 224 37 Sugar 119 58 58 - 0 311 311 - 0


Electricity 249 87 87 - 0 381 381 - 0


Aluminum 131 91 91 - 0 248 248 - 0


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total COGS 1372 930 930 - 0 1936 1936 - 0




Diesel (gal) 160 168 176 185



Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4


Sales price ($) 015 015 015 015



Hedge Selection

Futures

Sugar No

Natural gas No

Electricity No

Diesel No

Aluminum No










Gross Exposure graph support (stacked graph and waterfall)

Graph data		2012 Gross Exposure		Sugar		Natural gas		Electricity		Diesel		Aluminum		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Total

Invisible			5606		4238		1589		803		00

Grey			1244		1368		2649		786		803

Sugar		1244							186		261		341		456		1244

Natural gas		1368							210		278		375		505		1368

Electricity		2649							381		636		762		869		2649

Diesel		786							113		160		239		274		786

Aluminum		803							106		164		231		302		803

Commodities volume graph support

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4

Sugar		12800		13400		14100		15000

Natural gas		960		1010		1060		1110

Electricity		100		100		100		100

Diesel		1600		1680		1760		1850

Aluminum		160		170		180		190

Net exposure graph support

Graph data		2012 Gross Exposure		Sugar		Natural gas		Electricity		Diesel		Aluminum		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Total

Invisible			3734		2596		1276		1162		00

Grey			1913		1138		1320		114		1162

Sugar		1913							207		404		530		771		1913

Natural gas		1138							168		250		348		372		1138

Electricity		1320							221		266		331		502		1320

Diesel		114							26		39		12		38		114

Aluminum		1162							151		223		340		448		1162

Financial statement graph support

								Cost (95)

			Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4			Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Total

Simulated commodity costs

Sugar				463		686		840		1116			463		686		840		1116		3105

	Volume (lbs)			1280		1340		1410		1500			463		686		840		1116		3105		Unhedged

	Price			036		051		060		074

Natural gas				718		829		956		1008			718		829		956		1008		3511

	Volume			96		101		106		111			718		829		956		1008		3511		Unhedged

	Price			75		82		90		91

Electricity				844		888		953		1125			844		888		953		1125		3810

	Volume			10		10		10		10			844		888		953		1125		3810		Unhedged

	Price			844		888		953		1125

Diesel				385		416		407		453			385		416		407		453		1660

	Volume			160		168		176		185			385		416		407		453		1660		Unhedged

	Price			24		25		23		24

Aluminum				451		543		678		805			451		543		678		805		2477

	Volume			16		17		18		19			451		543		678		805		2476841735006		Unhedged

	Price			282		319		377		424

Total				2861		3361		3834		4507			2861		3361		3834		4507		14564

								2861		3361		3834		4507		14563772697504		Unhedged

								Cost (5)

			Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4			Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Total

Simulated commodity costs

Sugar				179		142		141		119			179		142		141		119		581

	Volume (lbs)			1280		1340		1410		1500			179		142		141		119		581		Unhedged

	Price			014		011		010		008

Natural gas				347		283		251		241			347		283		251		241		1123

	Volume			96		101		106		111			347		283		251		241		1123		Unhedged

	Price			36		28		24		22

Electricity				332		223		176		138			332		223		176		138		868

	Volume			10		10		10		10			332		223		176		138		868		Unhedged

	Price			332		223		176		138

Diesel				275		264		244		231			275		264		244		231		1015

	Volume			160		168		176		185			275		264		244		231		1015		Unhedged

	Price			17		16		14		12

Aluminum				241		230		236		205			241		230		236		205		911

	Volume			16		17		18		19			241		230		236		205		911127595797		Unhedged

	Price			150		135		131		108

Total				1373		1142		1048		935			1373		1142		1048		935		4498

95ile								5ile

Sales				480		504		529		556			480		504		529		556

Fixed Costs				120		120		120		120			120		120		120		120

Variable Costs				286		336		383		451			137		114		105		93

General amp Admin Exp				90		90		90		90			90		90		90		90

EBITDA				(16)		(42)		(64)		(105)			133		180		214		252



Earnings statement

all figures in millions (except prices)		Q1	Q2		Q3	Q4	2012

Sales		48000	50400		52920	55560	206880

Volume		320000	336000		352800	370400	1379200

Price ($)		015	015		015	015

				000

Cost of Goods Sold		32885	33792		34734	35758	137170

Fixed Costs		12000	12000		12000	12000	48000

Sugar ($lbs)		2560	2814		3102	3450	11926

	Volume (lbs)	12800	13400		14100	15000

	Price	020	021		022	023

				000

Natural gas ($Kcf) - Henry Hub		5502	5788		6075	6362	23727

	Volume	960	1010		1060	1110

	Price	573	573		573	573

				000

Electricity ($MWh) - NY ISO		6227	6227		6227	6227	24908

	Volume	100	100		100	100

	Price	6227	6227		6227	6227

				000

Diesel ($gal) - NY Harbour		3591	3771		3950	4152	15464

	Volume	1600	1680		1760	1850

	Price	224	224		224	224

				000

Aluminum		3005	3192		3380	3568	13144

	Volume	160	170		180	190

	Price	1878	1878		1878	1878

Variable Costs		20885	21792		22734	23758	89170

				000

General amp Admin Exp		9000	9000		9000	9000	36000

				000

EBITDA		6115	7608		9186	10802	33710



Impact of hedging

all figures in millions (except prices)

Futures		Used

	Sugar	No

	Natural gas	No

	Electricity	No

	Diesel	No

	Aluminum	No

							Net exposure (95)

		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Total

Simulated commodity costs

Sugar			463		686		840		1116		207		404		530		771		1913

	Volume (lbs)		1280		1340		1410		1500

	Price		036		051		060		074

							00		00	00		00		00

Natural gas			718		829		956		1008		168		250		348		372		1138

	Volume		96		101		106		111

	Price		75		82		90		91

							00		00	00		00		00

Electricity			844		888		953		1125		221		266		331		502		1320

	Volume		10		10		10		10

	Price		844		888		953		1125

							00		00	00		00		00

Diesel			385		416		407		453		26		39		12		38		114

	Volume		160		168		176		185

	Price		24		25		23		24

							00		00	00		00		00

Aluminum			451		543		678		805		151		223		340		448		1162

	Volume		16		17		18		19

	Price		282		319		377		424

Total			2861		3361		3834		4507		773		1182		1561		2131		5647



	Correlated Price Simulations

	Commodity prices are simulated through geometric brownian motion and utilize correlated random shocks based on an input correlation matrix

		Sugar					Natural gas					Electricity					Diesel					Aluminum					Total Net Exposure

	Period		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Full-Year

	Mean		020		021		022		023		573		573		573		573		6227		6227		6227		6227		224		224		224		224		1878		1878		1878		1878

	Volatility		070		070		070		070		048		048		048		048		069		069		069		069		037		037		037		037		032		032		032		032

	Time		025		050		075		100		025		050		075		100		025		050		075		100		025		050		075		100		025		050		075		100

	Volume		12800		13400		14100		15000		960		1010		1060		1110		100		100		100		100		1600		1680		1760		1850		160		170		180		190

	Simulated

	5		014		011		010		008		362		280		237		218		3315		2228		1757		1379		172		157		139		125		1503		1351		1309		1081		48715

	95		036		051		060		074		748		821		902		908		8439		8883		9535		11248		240		248		231		245		2820		3191		3766		4238		145722

	Std Dev		007		010		012		016		135		186		238		270		2100		3074		3713		4521		044		062		077		091		339		493		596		707

	Mean

Net Exposure																							Net Portfolio Exposure

32380		47		008		005		004		004		308		247		192		177		2637		1898		1408		972		133		105		086		075		1126		925		815		739		32380

33948		42		012		010		008		006		296		216		169		151		2310		1435		986		771		150		121		109		090		1253		1054		940		789		33948

39948		55		012		009		008		006		353		282		228		208		3268		2446		1989		1481		157		129		112		111		1155		968		849		685		39948

43542		60		013		012		010		009		370		298		275		241		3023		2238		1947		1441		142		117		100		085		1524		1373		1335		1103		43542

44977		68		014		011		010		008		362		280		237		218		3315		2228		1757		1379		172		157		139		125		1503		1351		1309		1081		44977

48911		50		016		014		012		010		409		346		296		273		3448		2728		2433		1680		165		158		139		134		1336		1151		989		956		48911

49824		97		011		009		007		006		416		329		290		268		3611		2898		2629		1945		186		179		158		148		1560		1397		1335		1168		49824

52614		9		017		017		016		015		434		352		335		309		3687		2659		2208		1557		167		147		126		120		1507		1377		1248		1173		52614

54247		89		017		015		016		016		439		390		356		319		4202		3278		2938		2741		165		140		135		115		1302		1087		949		834		54247

54467		29		011		008		006		006		422		348		290		276		4695		3992		3213		2735		174		165		142		131		1689		1645		1658		1518		54467

56081		37		018		016		015		015		431		389		338		303		4107		3434		3157		2520		187		171		151		142		1348		1200		1067		959		56081

56950		66		016		015		015		013		456		401		376		341		4018		3011		2673		2147		167		150		131		133		1735		1631		1514		1358		56950

58740		44		016		014		014		014		417		358		318		288		4373		3420		2897		2543		179		161		145		128		1837		1849		1811		1783		58740

59233		63		013		011		010		008		463		424		354		346		3838		3269		2540		2223		192		178		165		159		1915		1908		1952		1890		59233

60239		11		011		008		006		005		449		408		354		334		4758		3935		3524		3236		195		191		176		153		1871		1777		1795		1751		60239

60316		3		010		008		007		006		446		413		362		318		4810		4104		3705		3050		217		227		218		212		1520		1456		1268		1213		60316

61664		56		016		014		013		014		465		409		371		337		4004		3018		2627		2306		213		212		214		195		1723		1644		1539		1573		61664

65269		4		012		010		009		008		499		466		440		399		4679		4289		4175		3630		227		222		202		207		1564		1407		1328		1321		65269

65273		92		019		019		017		020		468		452		412		386		4681		3784		3476		3030		202		189		181		173		1550		1325		1272		1204		65273

65764		69		014		014		013		012		469		456		424		396		4095		3235		2716		2469		232		218		235		215		1846		1783		1769		1759		65764

65876		93		009		007		005		004		487		414		388		392		5470		4414		3990		3422		216		208		204		197		1936		1918		2013		2008		65876

66078		87		017		017		017		017		459		442		370		359		4358		3610		2995		2507		211		198		192		184		1850		1834		1860		1886		66078

66116		74		012		010		009		007		506		470		436		431		5243		4758		4687		3999		194		178		162		148		1729		1608		1574		1632		66116

66562		28		016		013		012		012		466		437		425		368		4837		4339		3786		3072		208		203		201		172		1790		1811		1739		1686		66562

66781		5		014		012		014		010		479		493		416		361		5031		4209		3839		3683		225		222		228		236		1494		1374		1259		1205		66781

68244		27		015		014		012		013		505		465		422		433		6111		5940		5338		4822		170		152		131		134		1540		1373		1368		1291		68244

69290		94		012		011		009		008		525		506		477		455		5461		5197		4182		3541		207		214		183		193		1749		1664		1613		1559		69290

69701		32		029		030		034		038		498		443		395		349		4147		3298		2974		2512		194		179		169		151		1517		1360		1312		1209		69701

70796		10		029		033		037		040		417		389		337		296		4868		4408		3809		3401		181		167		143		145		1538		1394		1279		1158		70796

71222		62		013		011		011		009		569		530		507		493		5343		4890		4534		4122		232		225		235		244		1432		1283		1141		991		71222

71261		45		024		026		026		026		468		423		393		370		4820		3878		3436		2825		208		203		188		169		1724		1672		1721		1691		71261

72702		91		011		010		008		007		510		496		467		432		5667		5025		4150		4024		221		204		200		193		2037		2135		2235		2228		72702

73734		20		012		009		008		008		545		525		532		483		4964		4978		4418		3734		252		246		240		242		1773		1793		1792		1550		73734

73801		52		014		013		011		011		544		544		491		505		6007		5243		4823		4922		188		177		166		155		1851		1899		1771		1806		73801

74108		88		015		015		012		012		521		472		428		410		5694		5653		4597		4234		237		251		240		237		1725		1626		1572		1414		74108

74317		1		013		012		011		009		497		415		414		379		5566		5460		4956		4077		238		249		243		227		2014		2054		1994		2024		74317

74660		22		022		024		022		024		539		489		513		474		5323		4839		4078		3974		207		195		204		187		1525		1374		1241		1160		74660

74808		31		016		014		013		013		551		524		504		420		5722		4948		4442		4039		196		175		162		159		2100		2133		2163		2368		74808

74998		82		025		028		027		031		459		404		360		341		4251		3653		3090		2716		218		209		213		217		2113		2139		2220		2171		74998

75350		8		015		015		012		011		534		484		458		411		5691		5348		5296		5469		186		179		154		161		2101		2134		2257		2146		75350

75850		85		019		019		019		018		568		505		491		479		6077		5656		5435		5757		203		183		174		162		1503		1310		1234		1158		75850

76270		2		021		018		018		018		538		515		500		489		5231		5090		4596		4623		223		220		231		203		1613		1450		1451		1409		76270

78037		30		017		016		015		014		548		513		485		504		6066		6050		5382		5314		221		227		218		204		1640		1495		1485		1375		78037

78226		23		016		015		014		011		529		506		495		414		5761		6103		5365		4695		208		203		199		201		2090		2095		2089		2103		78226

81022		96		016		016		014		014		534		539		504		468		6087		5637		6034		5187		234		241		239		242		1821		1777		1749		1662		81022

82068		99		021		021		022		021		546		510		479		489		5851		5276		5787		4832		232		222		218		237		1745		1706		1664		1748		82068

82643		35		012		010		009		008		551		532		565		488		6985		7363		6872		6115		212		219		201		204		1956		2033		1866		1858		82643

87060		14		016		014		012		011		603		590		570		649		6301		6010		5819		5771		221		210		220		213		2139		2281		2226		2447		87060

87614		83		032		040		045		058		565		534		572		519		5492		5063		4457		4135		200		189		189		176		1395		1244		1164		1068		87614

89614		46		019		020		020		019		576		637		610		610		6533		6598		6666		6786		204		207		181		181		1946		1988		2078		1928		89614

90297		100		016		014		012		011		571		562		594		523		6238		6149		6375		6392		261		271		285		290		2084		2148		2302		2267		90297

91492		49		015		015		013		014		588		581		590		582		7612		9229		8377		8573		202		190		182		178		1837		1833		1815		1762		91492

92285		79		028		030		037		038		563		538		538		539		6069		6428		5732		5382		207		198		178		169		1997		2051		2146		2150		92285

92517		80		021		020		024		023		624		649		634		649		5664		5628		4862		4865		249		276		277		279		1991		1978		2042		2079		92517

92520		58		025		029		028		032		611		702		664		720		5773		6288		5346		5787		224		215		201		208		1695		1604		1501		1466		92520

93297		38		025		028		030		029		581		611		525		547		5830		4962		4681		4374		253		261		269		270		2207		2307		2331		2511		93297

93492		84		020		018		018		018		624		658		693		620		6792		7087		6486		6822		229		248		240		235		1872		1857		1800		1782		93492

94010		72		019		016		017		016		645		637		681		608		6432		6267		6364		5536		276		315		309		338		1695		1730		1689		1702		94010

95355		25		022		022		023		024		617		614		641		661		7381		7741		7734		7355		201		183		181		167		1952		1996		2017		1982		95355

95981		51		022		021		024		022		631		654		628		656		6512		6238		6863		5733		235		237		228		245		2106		2188		2174		2310		95981

96590		70		019		020		019		018		640		674		670		672		6785		6304		6419		6186		250		247		247		241		2062		2175		2421		2430		96590

96659		59		015		015		013		011		641		694		682		672		6932		7099		7472		6962		253		283		294		282		1955		1988		1919		1987		96659

98984		39		022		024		024		027		682		674		703		690		6289		6707		6188		5735		233		249		244		250		2093		2091		2235		2335		98984

99473		64		014		013		011		010		665		685		674		711		7254		7577		8242		7389		276		284		312		343		1902		1877		1784		1881		99473

100438		18		021		024		021		021		643		705		699		679		7545		8706		7888		7960		234		236		232		234		1795		1682		1688		1643		100438

104925		26		030		040		036		047		638		646		611		644		7631		8381		7592		8300		200		186		176		173		1881		1847		1746		1805		104925

106683		71		020		021		023		022		667		677		707		752		8146		8325		8879		8341		237		241		236		242		2093		2275		2232		2274		106683

107046		48		031		036		038		043		681		774		787		860		5782		6008		6054		5691		259		262		265		272		1842		1834		1805		1657		107046

108929		75		028		030		034		039		705		726		835		795		6408		6759		6094		5739		270		286		301		326		1937		1954		1896		1922		108929

109789		17		016		015		014		013		706		792		871		828		9457		9496		9557		11733		234		246		232		254		1799		1710		1649		1544		109789

109940		98		026		031		032		038		703		764		801		853		7465		7940		7971		6489		264		280		283		303		1679		1496		1411		1393		109940

111963		61		022		024		022		025		715		776		784		849		7281		8061		8721		8562		266		276		283		281		2104		2187		2130		2121		111963

113140		41		025		030		027		031		709		722		813		858		8066		8128		9075		8288		271		290		305		319		1724		1582		1602		1558		113140

114475		15		025		029		032		034		680		714		712		755		8168		8424		9094		8582		269		290		309		299		1998		1996		1966		1927		114475

115420		76		023		024		021		021		682		710		721		788		7888		7858		8900		8340		300		338		360		392		2170		2212		2295		2479		115420

115470		12		020		020		022		023		665		668		712		637		9215		11363		13842		14327		222		215		215		184		1873		1818		1809		1839		115470

115543		43		018		017		016		014		708		740		776		888		8939		10641		10054		10632		273		289		295		316		1937		1932		1994		1938		115543

115599		16		023		026		023		027		735		805		871		836		7317		8319		8599		9260		256		267		265		313		2153		2255		2268		2233		115599

115628		95		014		012		011		010		653		681		623		720		8745		9344		10628		11302		292		316		329		347		2366		2750		2806		3056		115628

115695		13		021		021		020		023		783		842		842		907		8811		9563		8686		9220		246		234		246		254		2124		2197		2307		2336		115695

116747		78		025		025		024		031		675		707		764		751		8609		9940		9632		11128		260		266		267		275		2037		2116		2033		2058		116747

118794		33		023		024		027		029		678		695		724		732		7868		8230		8443		8449		255		275		265		294		2745		3142		3492		3808		118794

120798		67		023		023		025		028		701		829		848		816		8495		9001		9754		9979		295		315		344		372		1881		1975		1968		1960		120798

122134		7		021		024		023		025		704		782		813		827		9526		10396		11149		12151		277		296		312		350		1785		1741		1742		1729		122134

123516		73		022		024		026		026		738		788		831		860		8206		8564		9419		8704		321		362		377		440		2082		2305		2281		2263		123516

125606		90		029		035		042		044		638		663		758		822		8360		9427		9758		9092		272		294		308		317		2294		2392		2612		2639		125606

126928		54		036		045		051		053		751		805		954		911		7050		7643		7510		7316		268		283		290		317		2151		2212		2363		2417		126928

128846		77		037		043		046		053		728		846		879		845		8603		8376		9776		10368		237		249		263		261		1994		2163		2185		2264		128846

128878		6		025		028		028		035		774		786		849		960		8847		8937		10590		13150		263		285		280		313		2148		2332		2371		2513		128878

130807		34		035		040		049		054		782		843		925		979		7755		7821		8166		8865		288		307		344		334		1997		2059		2095		2239		130807

140398		19		017		016		016		015		791		795		881		1053		10420		12831		14842		14880		276		294		302		301		2645		3061		3158		3517		140398

142414		81		036		049		058		075		682		763		821		821		8688		10002		9662		11595		256		263		267		272		2539		2827		3224		3603		142414

143917		53		017		016		016		014		796		919		1029		1080		10035		12687		12587		16905		290		319		368		353		2432		2804		2919		3292		143917

145005		65		026		029		035		036		791		844		898		1008		9727		10940		12787		13483		301		335		351		371		2458		2857		3022		3126		145005

145638		36		036		051		060		074		748		821		902		908		8439		8883		9535		11248		240		248		231		245		2820		3191		3766		4238		145638

147330		40		025		030		035		033		768		823		834		969		10134		12586		13876		15668		292		311		371		392		2352		2714		2751		2883		147330

149955		86		025		028		029		031		822		902		905		1027		9657		11730		12287		13947		371		443		494		567		2146		2219		2432		2437		149955

167385		24		025		028		027		033		889		1039		1216		1304		11617		15334		16748		19296		285		288		321		318		2559		2842		3200		3467		167385

178469		57		035		044		057		076		868		941		1085		1127		10866		14632		17431		20089		263		292		289		318		2723		3330		3618		3836		178469

195830		21		026		028		031		033		980		1173		1531		1623		12934		17045		20568		25587		356		432		504		555		2168		2201		2225		2430		195830



	Risk management portfolio

	Futures			Description

	Sugar			Futures or OTC contracts may be used to lock in or fix commodity prices for defined periods of time

	Natural gas			Futures or OTC contracts may be used to lock in or fix commodity prices for defined periods of time

	Electricity			Futures or OTC contracts may be used to lock in or fix commodity prices for defined periods of time

	Diesel			Futures or OTC contracts may be used to lock in or fix commodity prices for defined periods of time

	Aluminum			Futures or OTC contracts may be used to lock in or fix commodity prices for defined periods of time



Gross exposure calculations

				Gross Exposure

all figures in millions (except prices)		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3	Q4	Total

Simulated commodity costs

Sugar		442	543	651	801		186		261		341	456	1244

	Volume (lbs)	1280	1340	1410	1500

	Price	035	041	046	053

				00	00	00		00		00

Natural gas		760	857	982	1141		210		278		375	505	1368

	Volume (MMBTU)	96	101	106	111

	Price	792	849	927	1028

				00	00	00		00		00

Electricity		1004	1259	1384	1492		381		636		762	869	2649

	Volume (MWh)	10	10	10	10

	Price	1004	1259	1384	1492

				00	00	00		00		00

Diesel		473	537	634	689		113		160		239	274	786

	Volume (gal)	160	168	176	185

	Price	295	320	360	373

				00	00	00		00		00

Aluminum		406	483	569	659		106		164		231	302	803

	Volume (tons)	16	17	18	19

	Price	2540	2843	3160	3469

Total		3085	3679	4220	4783		996		1500		1947	2407	6850



Sales Pricing and Volumes

all figures in millions (except prices)		Q1	Q2		Q3	Q4	2012

Sales		48000	50400		52920	55560	206880

Volume		320000	336000		352800	370400	1379200

Price ($)		015	015		015	015	016

				000

Cost of Commodity Goods Sold		32885	33792		34734	35758	137170

Fixed Costs		12000	12000		12000	12000	48000

Sugar ($)		2560	2814		3102	3450	11926

	Volume (lb)	12800	13400		14100	15000

	($lb)	020	021		022	023

				000

Natural gas ($)		5502	5788		6075	6362	23727

	Volume (MMBTU)	960	1010		1060	1110

	Price ($MMBTU)	573	573		573	573

				000

Electricity ($)		6227	6227		6227	6227	24908

	Volume	100	100		100	100

	Price	6227	6227		6227	6227

				000

Diesel ($l)		3591	3771		3950	4152	15464

	Volume	1600	1680		1760	1850

	Price	224	224		224	224

				000

Aluminum ($)		3005	3192		3380	3568	13144

	Volume	160	170		180	190

	Price	1878	1878		1878	1878

Variable Costs		20885	21792		22734	23758	89170



Correlations

Correlated random shocks generated from correlation matrix

Correlations			Sugar					Natural gas					Electricity					Diesel					Aluminum

		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4

Sugar		Q1		100		099		099		099		065		065		065		065		055		055		055		055		047		047		047		047		043		043		043		043

	Q2		099		100		099		099		065		065		065		065		055		055		055		055		047		047		047		047		043		043		043		043

	Q3		099		099		100		099		065		065		065		065		055		055		055		055		047		047		047		047		043		043		043		043

	Q4		099		099		099		100		065		065		065		065		055		055		055		055		047		047		047		047		043		043		043		043

Nat Gas		Q1		065		065		065		065		100		099		099		099		094		094		094		094		086		086		086		086		069		069		069		069

	Q2		065		065		065		065		099		100		099		099		094		094		094		094		086		086		086		086		069		069		069		069

	Q3		065		065		065		065		099		099		100		099		094		094		094		094		086		086		086		086		069		069		069		069

	Q4		065		065		065		065		099		099		099		100		094		094		094		094		086		086		086		086		069		069		069		069

Electricity		Q1		055		055		055		055		094		094		094		094		100		099		099		099		082		082		082		082		071		071		071		071

	Q2		055		055		055		055		094		094		094		094		099		100		099		099		082		082		082		082		071		071		071		071

	Q3		055		055		055		055		094		094		094		094		099		099		100		099		082		082		082		082		071		071		071		071

	Q4		055		055		055		055		094		094		094		094		099		099		099		100		082		082		082		082		071		071		071		071

Diesel		Q1		047		047		047		047		086		086		086		086		082		082		082		082		100		099		099		099		066		066		066		066

	Q2		047		047		047		047		086		086		086		086		082		082		082		082		099		100		099		099		066		066		066		066

	Q3		047		047		047		047		086		086		086		086		082		082		082		082		099		099		100		099		066		066		066		066

	Q4		047		047		047		047		086		086		086		086		082		082		082		082		099		099		099		100		066		066		066		066

Aluminum		Q1		043		043		043		043		069		069		069		069		071		071		071		071		066		066		066		066		100		099		099		099

	Q2		043		043		043		043		069		069		069		069		071		071		071		071		066		066		066		066		099		100		099		099

	Q3		043		043		043		043		069		069		069		069		071		071		071		071		066		066		066		066		099		099		100		099

	Q4		043		043		043		043		069		069		069		069		071		071		071		071		066		066		066		066		099		099		099		100

Column			C		C		C		C		G		G		G		G		- 0		K		K		K		- 0		O		O		O		S		S		S		S

Indirect			C_Prices									- 0					- 0

Correlated			Sugar					Natural gas					Electricity					Diesel					Aluminum

N(01)			Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4

1			(108)		(092)		(082)		(107)		(047)		(078)		(057)		(062)		(015)		(003)		(008)		(027)		041		052		041		022		052		051		036		039

2			031		(007)		(006)		(003)		(015)		(014)		(012)		(009)		(033)		(017)		(021)		(009)		005		005		026		(009)		(087)		(103)		(079)		(074)

3			(176)		(167)		(159)		(155)		(092)		(079)		(090)		(098)		(058)		(061)		(057)		(069)		(009)		018		007		002		(124)		(101)		(128)		(121)

4			(134)		(119)		(112)		(122)		(046)		(044)		(043)		(052)		(066)		(052)		(037)		(044)		016		009		(016)		(003)		(106)		(116)		(111)		(094)

5			(075)		(080)		(049)		(077)		(063)		(028)		(057)		(072)		(045)		(056)		(051)		(042)		011		010		021		032		(135)		(127)		(130)		(123)

6			082		082		072		095		137		110		115		132		119		098		119		143		095		104		085		108		092		107		098		107

7			035		050		038		044		098		108		105		100		140		129		127		131		123		119		119		139		(024)		(022)		(013)		(010)

8			(056)		(044)		(076)		(066)		(017)		(033)		(033)		(045)		(009)		(007)		003		016		(091)		(074)		(102)		(071)		078		068		080		058

9			(025)		(015)		(023)		(027)		(104)		(127)		(109)		(105)		(135)		(150)		(144)		(166)		(149)		(148)		(165)		(151)		(130)		(126)		(134)		(131)

10			126		116		115		112		(120)		(097)		(107)		(114)		(054)		(046)		(052)		(053)		(107)		(099)		(125)		(099)		(117)		(120)		(125)		(135)

11			(166)		(182)		(173)		(174)		(090)		(083)		(095)		(089)		(061)		(070)		(065)		(060)		(066)		(048)		(061)		(084)		006		(013)		(002)		(006)

12			014		014		034		034		074		062		073		046		131		148		164		155		003		(003)		002		(035)		006		(003)		000		010

13			034		028		011		035		142		130		113		120		118		112		086		091		060		030		044		052		085		081		088		084

14			(048)		(059)		(063)		(068)		033		026		020		050		021		017		019		023		001		(012)		009		005		089		097		075		099

15			079		091		090		091		083		082		073		081		096		086		093		081		107		112		115		096		047		038		030		024

16			058		071		034		059		116		117		122		103		064		084		084		092		081		080		068		108		093		092		082		070

17			(046)		(041)		(043)		(048)		099		112		121		101		138		111		102		126		031		049		027		052		(019)		(030)		(033)		(045)

18			030		052		025		024		060		078		068		059		073		093		069		070		031		033		026		030		(020)		(037)		(024)		(026)

19			(034)		(031)		(025)		(026)		146		114		124		151		166		173		175		161		121		116		108		097		222		227		201		212

20			(119)		(138)		(136)		(114)		(009)		(009)		003		(012)		(048)		(021)		(028)		(040)		073		048		037		039		(028)		(009)		(003)		(044)

21			092		081		085		085		236		228		257		241		229		231		230		239		259		264		269		263		098		082		075		097

22			047		052		031		042		(014)		(030)		(006)		(016)		(028)		(027)		(041)		(031)		(035)		(040)		(014)		(031)		(122)		(127)		(135)		(134)

23			(043)		(047)		(046)		(069)		(021)		(019)		(014)		(044)		(005)		020		005		(006)		(032)		(025)		(021)		(012)		075		060		052		051

24			082		083		064		089		195		192		202		195		198		209		195		198		138		109		128		113		201		194		206		208

25			039		030		035		039		042		037		048		054		067		069		066		059		(050)		(065)		(051)		(061)		032		038		040		033

26			130		157		113		138		057		052		036		048		076		085		063		076		(053)		(058)		(061)		(052)		009		004		(012)		004

27			(063)		(063)		(067)		(046)		(041)		(045)		(053)		(035)		012		015		004		(003)		(140)		(136)		(152)		(120)		(116)		(127)		(101)		(101)

28			(051)		(067)		(068)		(058)		(075)		(063)		(051)		(068)		(056)		(050)		(053)		(068)		(031)		(025)		(019)		(053)		(022)		(005)		(014)		(018)

29			(165)		(163)		(176)		(155)		(115)		(130)		(143)		(128)		(065)		(067)		(081)		(085)		(128)		(105)		(126)		(127)		(058)		(047)		(031)		(050)

30			(029)		(031)		(029)		(032)		(007)		(016)		(019)		(003)		010		018		005		012		001		017		007		(007)		(077)		(089)		(071)		(081)

31			(040)		(055)		(058)		(043)		(004)		(009)		(010)		(041)		(007)		(023)		(027)		(028)		(065)		(082)		(086)		(075)		078		068		065		089

32			123		098		102		105		(047)		(059)		(069)		(079)		(101)		(106)		(094)		(097)		(069)		(074)		(072)		(089)		(125)		(131)		(115)		(122)

33			057		052		066		070		082		074		077		075		085		082		081		079		079		090		068		091		245		239		238		237

34			174		156		162		156		142		131		136		135		081		071		075		086		143		133		150		126		046		052		053		071

35			(121)		(127)		(111)		(122)		(004)		(005)		018		(009)		051		059		046		032		(021)		003		(018)		(008)		034		046		012		013

36			187		205		195		203		123		123		130		120		105		097		101		120		046		051		025		042		262		246		265		270

37			(019)		(031)		(029)		(029)		(106)		(097)		(106)		(108)		(103)		(098)		(084)		(097)		(090)		(092)		(107)		(106)		(199)		(187)		(190)		(194)

38			080		080		081		069		018		036		(001)		014		(002)		(022)		(018)		(017)		074		071		073		069		109		102		092		107

39			040		053		044		058		085		065		070		063		020		040		029		023		029		053		042		047		076		059		077		084

40			085		100		108		089		134		123		111		133		158		169		164		168		151		138		173		169		149		174		152		150

41			082		097		061		076		101		085		105		108		092		079		093		076		111		111		112		113		(045)		(064)		(044)		(042)

42			(123)		(134)		(135)		(147)		(263)		(271)		(274)		(254)		(270)		(276)		(279)		(268)		(210)		(223)		(208)		(227)		(245)		(244)		(236)		(255)

43			(016)		(018)		(018)		(034)		100		092		094		115		122		134		110		112		115		109		102		111		027		024		035		026

44			(048)		(052)		(042)		(035)		(120)		(122)		(121)		(119)		(085)		(098)		(098)		(095)		(112)		(115)		(120)		(132)		(006)		005		001		(000)

45			069		067		059		054		(073)		(073)		(070)		(067)		(057)		(073)		(070)		(080)		(033)		(026)		(039)		(057)		(045)		(040)		(018)		(017)

46			005		011		013		005		014		048		036		037		031		036		041		047		(043)		(018)		(052)		(039)		030		037		050		024

47			(235)		(256)		(232)		(222)		(247)		(231)		(242)		(221)		(232)		(219)		(219)		(235)		(272)		(277)		(282)		(278)		(312)		(301)		(287)		(275)

48			143		131		119		126		084		106		097		108		(004)		017		025		021		087		072		067		071		(004)		001		(000)		(023)

49			(063)		(045)		(054)		(035)		023		021		028		027		075		105		080		081		(048)		(052)		(049)		(045)		(006)		001		002		(004)

50			(055)		(060)		(066)		(079)		(129)		(132)		(138)		(130)		(154)		(145)		(127)		(155)		(157)		(121)		(133)		(121)		(205)		(205)		(217)		(195)

51			039		028		044		031		052		056		043		052		030		025		046		023		035		034		022		042		079		079		067		081

52			(087)		(075)		(088)		(067)		(009)		002		(016)		(002)		007		(011)		(013)		000		(087)		(077)		(079)		(081)		(001)		016		(007)		004

53			(032)		(024)		(025)		(035)		149		156		161		156		156		170		148		179		148		147		170		141		170		188		173		191

54			186		179		168		155		124		117		143		121		053		066		061		058		106		101		095		112		093		084		097		095

55			(135)		(144)		(137)		(150)		(190)		(192)		(201)		(188)		(170)		(167)		(161)		(174)		(185)		(199)		(201)		(171)		(296)		(281)		(273)		(299)

56			(052)		(051)		(058)		(040)		(075)		(083)		(084)		(087)		(111)		(124)		(115)		(109)		(019)		(009)		002		(019)		(046)		(047)		(058)		(039)

57			173		174		186		206		185		163		174		165		179		199		202		204		095		113		095		113		240		264		251		239

58			076		087		072		084		039		077		056		072		(005)		026		004		024		008		(004)		(018)		(002)		(056)		(058)		(067)		(061)

59			(072)		(037)		(056)		(072)		059		073		063		057		048		051		060		051		074		102		100		080		033		037		022		034

60			(109)		(093)		(104)		(106)		(170)		(175)		(156)		(156)		(192)		(185)		(165)		(178)		(238)		(234)		(237)		(243)		(122)		(127)		(109)		(150)

61			044		048		032		047		104		106		096		106		063		077		086		081		102		092		089		080		079		079		059		054

62			(105)		(101)		(086)		(094)		009		(006)		(009)		(007)		(027)		(025)		(023)		(025)		026		015		030		041		(161)		(157)		(166)		(184)

63			(095)		(103)		(105)		(122)		(077)		(072)		(095)		(081)		(123)		(108)		(120)		(115)		(077)		(075)		(081)		(075)		020		018		028		018

64			(079)		(070)		(083)		(086)		074		070		060		069		062		065		077		059		121		103		119		133		016		011		(005)		017

65			096		093		106		097		146		131		129		142		147		140		150		146		169		166		156		154		176		197		186		175

66			(049)		(046)		(037)		(042)		(084)		(088)		(081)		(084)		(110)		(125)		(112)		(120)		(149)		(140)		(151)		(124)		(042)		(051)		(064)		(085)

67			061		045		052		064		096		126		115		098		107		100		105		103		157		142		150		155		009		034		031		029

68			(085)		(114)		(100)		(117)		(180)		(194)		(192)		(178)		(165)		(186)		(182)		(184)		(135)		(123)		(134)		(140)		(131)		(134)		(116)		(157)

69			(084)		(062)		(057)		(060)		(071)		(050)		(052)		(053)		(104)		(110)		(109)		(100)		028		002		031		008		(003)		(012)		(008)		(004)

70			(002)		011		007		002		058		065		058		057		042		027		035		034		069		050		045		037		066		076		106		097

71			023		024		035		027		075		066		071		081		095		084		089		077		039		040		032		039		076		096		076		076

72			(005)		(026)		(008)		(013)		061		048		062		036		027		026		034		017		121		143		116		129		(056)		(025)		(024)		(015)

73			048		050		056		053		118		111		110		109		097		090		099		083		203		196		178		200		072		102		084		074

74			(119)		(122)		(110)		(137)		(040)		(041)		(045)		(036)		(033)		(031)		(018)		(030)		(071)		(076)		(086)		(093)		(044)		(057)		(050)		(028)

75			114		095		103		110		098		087		111		092		026		041		026		023		109		106		108		120		027		029		017		023

76			057		048		022		022		085		080		076		090		086		072		090		077		167		169		163		169		098		084		086		103

77			190		171		152		155		112		132		124		105		111		085		105		108		040		053		065		059		046		074		069		075

78			077		059		048		077		080		079		090		080		111		120		103		119		089		077		070		073		059		064		042		045

79			118		100		116		107		005		(002)		006		011		010		031		016		013		(033)		(034)		(056)		(059)		046		050		062		058

80			033		017		045		032		047		053		045		050		(010)		004		(012)		(001)		066		093		082		077		045		034		044		048

81			182		197		190		205		085		101		107		099		114		122		103		125		081		073		071		071		197		192		209		220

82			076		081		062		078		(080)		(086)		(091)		(084)		(093)		(085)		(087)		(086)		(006)		(014)		(000)		009		082		069		074		061

83			156		153		147		166		006		(004)		020		003		(019)		(018)		(026)		(025)		(052)		(052)		(037)		(048)		(178)		(171)		(159)		(160)

84			017		(010)		(000)		003		048		058		066		040		042		051		037		048		020		052		037		030		006		006		(001)		(000)

85			006		007		006		(000)		009		(020)		(017)		(013)		010		005		007		023		(045)		(064)		(063)		(069)		(131)		(148)		(138)		(135)

86			078		080		076		077		162		150		131		145		144		154		144		151		281		273		262		269		091		085		107		097

87			(034)		(019)		(010)		(011)		(080)		(060)		(085)		(074)		(086)		(087)		(093)		(097)		(024)		(034)		(033)		(036)		(001)		001		010		017

88			(070)		(046)		(064)		(058)		(028)		(040)		(049)		(046)		(009)		005		(021)		(021)		038		056		036		033		(045)		(052)		(050)		(073)

89			(031)		(037)		(025)		(013)		(099)		(097)		(094)		(098)		(097)		(107)		(096)		(084)		(158)		(167)		(144)		(163)		(221)		(230)		(232)		(238)

90			123		130		136		128		057		060		088		099		103		109		105		089		112		116		115		112		133		118		133		122

91			(146)		(126)		(133)		(132)		(037)		(026)		(029)		(035)		(010)		(020)		(038)		(029)		000		(024)		(020)		(022)		059		068		077		069

92			(001)		007		(009)		018		(073)		(053)		(058)		(058)		(065)		(078)		(068)		(070)		(048)		(052)		(051)		(052)		(112)		(143)		(127)		(123)

93			(226)		(202)		(225)		(216)		(056)		(079)		(073)		(055)		(020)		(046)		(045)		(052)		(011)		(017)		(014)		(016)		027		021		039		037

94			(131)		(113)		(112)		(115)		(025)		(019)		(023)		(024)		(021)		(013)		(037)		(047)		(034)		(005)		(048)		(023)		(037)		(042)		(041)		(042)

95			(087)		(084)		(091)		(090)		066		068		041		072		116		108		119		121		152		144		136		136		152		180		159		168

96			(042)		(035)		(040)		(038)		(018)		(001)		(010)		(018)		011		004		025		008		031		040		035		039		(011)		(013)		(012)		(022)

97			(151)		(157)		(167)		(162)		(122)		(147)		(143)		(134)		(141)		(132)		(114)		(134)		(093)		(074)		(093)		(093)		(108)		(119)		(109)		(132)

98			096		101		091		109		097		102		101		107		070		074		071		040		097		098		089		099		(062)		(089)		(089)		(077)

99			033		028		029		021		(008)		(017)		(022)		(009)		(001)		(010)		018		(002)		027		008		007		033		(038)		(031)		(030)		(006)

100			(055)		(051)		(066)		(067)		011		011		029		005		018		022		034		038		091		085		091		088		073		071		087		075



Price Simulations

Commodity prices are simulated through geometric brownian motion and utilize correlated random shocks based on an input correlation matrix

	Sugar			Natural gas			Electricity			Diesel			Aluminum

Period		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1		Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2		Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4

Mean		020	021	022	023	573		573	573	573	6227	6227		6227	6227	224	224	224	224	1878	1878	1878	1878

Volatility		070	070	070	070	048		048	048	048	069	069		069	069	037	037	037	037	032	032	032	032

Time		025	050	075	100	025		050	075	100	025	050		075	100	025	050	075	100	025	050	075	100

Simulated

5		011	009	007	006	407		327	289	267	3441	2649		2197	1553	165	147	131	120	1348	1197	1063	958

95		035	041	046	053	792		849	927	1028	10040	12591		13844	14919	295	320	360	373	2540	2843	3160	3469

Std Dev		007	010	012	016	135		186	238	270	2100	3074		3713	4521	044	062	077	091	339	493	596	707

1		013	012	011	009	497		415	414	379	5566	5460		4956	4077	238	249	243	227	2014	2054	1994	2024

2		021	018	018	018	538		515	500	489	5231	5090		4596	4623	223	220	231	203	1613	1450	1451	1409

3		010	008	007	006	446		413	362	318	4810	4104		3705	3050	217	227	218	212	1520	1456	1268	1213

4		012	010	009	008	499		466	440	399	4679	4289		4175	3630	227	222	202	207	1564	1407	1328	1321

5		014	012	014	010	479		493	416	361	5031	4209		3839	3683	225	222	228	236	1494	1374	1259	1205

6		025	028	028	035	774		786	849	960	8847	8937		10590	13150	263	285	280	313	2148	2332	2371	2513

7		021	024	023	025	704		782	813	827	9526	10396		11149	12151	277	296	312	350	1785	1741	1742	1729

8		015	015	012	011	534		484	458	411	5691	5348		5296	5469	186	179	154	161	2101	2134	2257	2146

9		017	017	016	015	434		352	335	309	3687	2659		2208	1557	167	147	126	120	1507	1377	1248	1173

10		029	033	037	040	417		389	337	296	4868	4408		3809	3401	181	167	143	145	1538	1394	1279	1158

11		011	008	006	005	449		408	354	334	4758	3935		3524	3236	195	191	176	153	1871	1777	1795	1751

12		020	020	022	023	665		668	712	637	9215	11363		13842	14327	222	215	215	184	1873	1818	1809	1839

13		021	021	020	023	783		842	842	907	8811	9563		8686	9220	246	234	246	254	2124	2197	2307	2336

14		016	014	012	011	603		590	570	649	6301	6010		5819	5771	221	210	220	213	2139	2281	2226	2447

15		025	029	032	034	680		714	712	755	8168	8424		9094	8582	269	290	309	299	1998	1996	1966	1927

16		023	026	023	027	735		805	871	836	7317	8319		8599	9260	256	267	265	313	2153	2255	2268	2233

17		016	015	014	013	706		792	871	828	9457	9496		9557	11733	234	246	232	254	1799	1710	1649	1544

18		021	024	021	021	643		705	699	679	7545	8706		7888	7960	234	236	232	234	1795	1682	1688	1643

19		017	016	016	015	791		795	881	1053	10420	12831		14842	14880	276	294	302	301	2645	3061	3158	3517

20		012	009	008	008	545		525	532	483	4964	4978		4418	3734	252	246	240	242	1773	1793	1792	1550

21		026	028	031	033	980		1173	1531	1623	12934	17045		20568	25587	356	432	504	555	2168	2201	2225	2430

22		022	024	022	024	539		489	513	474	5323	4839		4078	3974	207	195	204	187	1525	1374	1241	1160

23		016	015	014	011	529		506	495	414	5761	6103		5365	4695	208	203	199	201	2090	2095	2089	2103

24		025	028	027	033	889		1039	1216	1304	11617	15334		16748	19296	285	288	321	318	2559	2842	3200	3467

25		022	022	023	024	617		614	641	661	7381	7741		7734	7355	201	183	181	167	1952	1996	2017	1982

26		030	040	036	047	638		646	611	644	7631	8381		7592	8300	200	186	176	173	1881	1847	1746	1805

27		015	014	012	013	505		465	422	433	6111	5940		5338	4822	170	152	131	134	1540	1373	1368	1291

28		016	013	012	012	466		437	425	368	4837	4339		3786	3072	208	203	201	172	1790	1811	1739	1686

29		011	008	006	006	422		348	290	276	4695	3992		3213	2735	174	165	142	131	1689	1645	1658	1518

30		017	016	015	014	548		513	485	504	6066	6050		5382	5314	221	227	218	204	1640	1495	1485	1375

31		016	014	013	013	551		524	504	420	5722	4948		4442	4039	196	175	162	159	2100	2133	2163	2368

32		029	030	034	038	498		443	395	349	4147	3298		2974	2512	194	179	169	151	1517	1360	1312	1209

33		023	024	027	029	678		695	724	732	7868	8230		8443	8449	255	275	265	294	2745	3142	3492	3808

34		035	040	049	054	782		843	925	979	7755	7821		8166	8865	288	307	344	334	1997	2059	2095	2239

35		012	010	009	008	551		532	565	488	6985	7363		6872	6115	212	219	201	204	1956	2033	1866	1858

36		036	051	060	074	748		821	902	908	8439	8883		9535	11248	240	248	231	245	2820	3191	3766	4238

37		018	016	015	015	431		389	338	303	4107	3434		3157	2520	187	171	151	142	1348	1200	1067	959

38		025	028	030	029	581		611	525	547	5830	4962		4681	4374	253	261	269	270	2207	2307	2331	2511

39		022	024	024	027	682		674	703	690	6289	6707		6188	5735	233	249	244	250	2093	2091	2235	2335

40		025	030	035	033	768		823	834	969	10134	12586		13876	15668	292	311	371	392	2352	2714	2751	2883

41		025	030	027	031	709		722	813	858	8066	8128		9075	8288	271	290	305	319	1724	1582	1602	1558

42		012	010	008	006	296		216	169	151	2310	1435		986	771	150	121	109	090	1253	1054	940	789

43		018	017	016	014	708		740	776	888	8939	10641		10054	10632	273	289	295	316	1937	1932	1994	1938

44		016	014	014	014	417		358	318	288	4373	3420		2897	2543	179	161	145	128	1837	1849	1811	1783

45		024	026	026	026	468		423	393	370	4820	3878		3436	2825	208	203	188	169	1724	1672	1721	1691

46		019	020	020	019	576		637	610	610	6533	6598		6666	6786	204	207	181	181	1946	1988	2078	1928

47		008	005	004	004	308		247	192	177	2637	1898		1408	972	133	105	086	075	1126	925	815	739

48		031	036	038	043	681		774	787	860	5782	6008		6054	5691	259	262	265	272	1842	1834	1805	1657

49		015	015	013	014	588		581	590	582	7612	9229		8377	8573	202	190	182	178	1837	1833	1815	1762

50		016	014	012	010	409		346	296	273	3448	2728		2433	1680	165	158	139	134	1336	1151	989	956

51		022	021	024	022	631		654	628	656	6512	6238		6863	5733	235	237	228	245	2106	2188	2174	2310

52		014	013	011	011	544		544	491	505	6007	5243		4823	4922	188	177	166	155	1851	1899	1771	1806

53		017	016	016	014	796		919	1029	1080	10035	12687		12587	16905	290	319	368	353	2432	2804	2919	3292

54		036	045	051	053	751		805	954	911	7050	7643		7510	7316	268	283	290	317	2151	2212	2363	2417

55		012	009	008	006	353		282	228	208	3268	2446		1989	1481	157	129	112	111	1155	968	849	685

56		016	014	013	014	465		409	371	337	4004	3018		2627	2306	213	212	214	195	1723	1644	1539	1573

57		035	044	057	076	868		941	1085	1127	10866	14632		17431	20089	263	292	289	318	2723	3330	3618	3836

58		025	029	028	032	611		702	664	720	5773	6288		5346	5787	224	215	201	208	1695	1604	1501	1466

59		015	015	013	011	641		694	682	672	6932	7099		7472	6962	253	283	294	282	1955	1988	1919	1987

60		013	012	010	009	370		298	275	241	3023	2238		1947	1441	142	117	100	085	1524	1373	1335	1103

61		022	024	022	025	715		776	784	849	7281	8061		8721	8562	266	276	283	281	2104	2187	2130	2121

62		013	011	011	009	569		530	507	493	5343	4890		4534	4122	232	225	235	244	1432	1283	1141	991

63		013	011	010	008	463		424	354	346	3838	3269		2540	2223	192	178	165	159	1915	1908	1952	1890

64		014	013	011	010	665		685	674	711	7254	7577		8242	7389	276	284	312	343	1902	1877	1784	1881

65		026	029	035	036	791		844	898	1008	9727	10940		12787	13483	301	335	351	371	2458	2857	3022	3126

66		016	015	015	013	456		401	376	341	4018	3011		2673	2147	167	150	131	133	1735	1631	1514	1358

67		023	023	025	028	701		829	848	816	8495	9001		9754	9979	295	315	344	372	1881	1975	1968	1960

68		014	011	010	008	362		280	237	218	3315	2228		1757	1379	172	157	139	125	1503	1351	1309	1081

69		014	014	013	012	469		456	424	396	4095	3235		2716	2469	232	218	235	215	1846	1783	1769	1759

70		019	020	019	018	640		674	670	672	6785	6304		6419	6186	250	247	247	241	2062	2175	2421	2430

71		020	021	023	022	667		677	707	752	8146	8325		8879	8341	237	241	236	242	2093	2275	2232	2274

72		019	016	017	016	645		637	681	608	6432	6267		6364	5536	276	315	309	338	1695	1730	1689	1702

73		022	024	026	026	738		788	831	860	8206	8564		9419	8704	321	362	377	440	2082	2305	2281	2263

74		012	010	009	007	506		470	436	431	5243	4758		4687	3999	194	178	162	148	1729	1608	1574	1632

75		028	030	034	039	705		726	835	795	6408	6759		6094	5739	270	286	301	326	1937	1954	1896	1922

76		023	024	021	021	682		710	721	788	7888	7858		8900	8340	300	338	360	392	2170	2212	2295	2479

77		037	043	046	053	728		846	879	845	8603	8376		9776	10368	237	249	263	261	1994	2163	2185	2264

78		025	025	024	031	675		707	764	751	8609	9940		9632	11128	260	266	267	275	2037	2116	2033	2058

79		028	030	037	038	563		538	538	539	6069	6428		5732	5382	207	198	178	169	1997	2051	2146	2150

80		021	020	024	023	624		649	634	649	5664	5628		4862	4865	249	276	277	279	1991	1978	2042	2079

81		036	049	058	075	682		763	821	821	8688	10002		9662	11595	256	263	267	272	2539	2827	3224	3603

82		025	028	027	031	459		404	360	341	4251	3653		3090	2716	218	209	213	217	2113	2139	2220	2171

83		032	040	045	058	565		534	572	519	5492	5063		4457	4135	200	189	189	176	1395	1244	1164	1068

84		020	018	018	018	624		658	693	620	6792	7087		6486	6822	229	248	240	235	1872	1857	1800	1782

85		019	019	019	018	568		505	491	479	6077	5656		5435	5757	203	183	174	162	1503	1310	1234	1158

86		025	028	029	031	822		902	905	1027	9657	11730		12287	13947	371	443	494	567	2146	2219	2432	2437

87		017	017	017	017	459		442	370	359	4358	3610		2995	2507	211	198	192	184	1850	1834	1860	1886

88		015	015	012	012	521		472	428	410	5694	5653		4597	4234	237	251	240	237	1725	1626	1572	1414

89		017	015	016	016	439		390	356	319	4202	3278		2938	2741	165	140	135	115	1302	1087	949	834

90		029	035	042	044	638		663	758	822	8360	9427		9758	9092	272	294	308	317	2294	2392	2612	2639

91		011	010	008	007	510		496	467	432	5667	5025		4150	4024	221	204	200	193	2037	2135	2235	2228

92		019	019	017	020	468		452	412	386	4681	3784		3476	3030	202	189	181	173	1550	1325	1272	1204

93		009	007	005	004	487		414	388	392	5470	4414		3990	3422	216	208	204	197	1936	1918	2013	2008

94		012	011	009	008	525		506	477	455	5461	5197		4182	3541	207	214	183	193	1749	1664	1613	1559

95		014	012	011	010	653		681	623	720	8745	9344		10628	11302	292	316	329	347	2366	2750	2806	3056

96		016	016	014	014	534		539	504	468	6087	5637		6034	5187	234	241	239	242	1821	1777	1749	1662

97		011	009	007	006	416		329	290	268	3611	2898		2629	1945	186	179	158	148	1560	1397	1335	1168

98		026	031	032	038	703		764	801	853	7465	7940		7971	6489	264	280	283	303	1679	1496	1411	1393

99		021	021	022	021	546		510	479	489	5851	5276		5787	4832	232	222	218	237	1745	1706	1664	1748

100		016	014	012	011	571		562	594	523	6238	6149		6375	6392	261	271	285	290	2084	2148	2302	2267

185947613236	209700016612	381289955056	113496909508	105940968217

261410846662	278202957602	636440926272	159777507841	164064511715

340758878594	374684278258	761658671012	238893166595	230844682326

456070302878	505106365162	869191059145	27405034829	302394276185



Oliver Wyman Six Steps to Assess Commodity Risk Exposure

USER INPUTS												RISK PROFILE OUTPUTS

Date		1112											5 Holistic commodity profile and impact on earnings (baseline 95 confidence band 5 confidence band)

Price and Volatility																				Base			5th -ile				95th -ile

	Q1			Q2			Q3			Q4													2012		Un hedged		Hedged		Impact		Un hedged		Hedged		Impact

	Price		Volatility		Price		Volatlity		Price		Volatility		Price		Volatility															of hedge				of hedge

Sugar ($lbs)		$ 020		70		$ 021		70		$ 022		70		$ 023		70									Sales				2069		2069		2069		- 0		2069	2069	- 0

Natural gas ($MMBTU)		$ 573		48		$ 573		48		$ 573		48		$ 573		48									Cost of Goods Sold

Electricity ($MWh)		$ 6227		69		$ 6227		69		$ 6227		69		$ 6227		69									Fixed Costs				480		480		480		- 0		480	480	- 0

Diesel ($gal)		$ 224		37		$ 224		37		$ 224		37		$ 224		37									Sugar				119		58		58		- 0		311	311	- 0

Aluminum ($KTon)		$ 1878		32		$ 1878		32		$ 1878		32		$ 1878		32									Natural gas				237		112		112		- 0		351	351	- 0

																	Electricity			249		87		87		- 0		381		381		- 0

Exposure risk level		95																	Diesel			155		101		101		- 0		166		166		- 0

																	Aluminum			131		91		91		- 0		248		248		- 0

Commodity volumes (in millions)																		Variable Costs			892		450		450		- 0		1456		1456		- 0

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4													Total COGS				1372		930		930		- 0		1936		1936		- 0

Sugar (lbs)		1280		1340		1410		1500													Gen amp Admin Exp				360		360		360		- 0		360		360		- 0

Natural gas (MMBTU)		96		101		106		111													EBITDA				337		779		779		- 0		(228)		(228)		- 0

Electricity (MWh)		10		10		10		10

Diesel (gal)		160		168		176		185

Aluminum (KTon)		16		17		18		19								4 Net commodity exposure 2012 by commodity (in millions $)

Other financial statement assumptions

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4

Sales volume (in millions)		3200		3360		3528		3704

Sales price ($)		015		015		015		015

Fixed costs ($ millions)		120		120		120		120

GampA Exp ($ millions)		90		90		90		90

Hedge Selection

	Futures

Sugar		No

Natural gas		No

Electricity		No

Diesel		No

Aluminum		No

											3 Gross commodity exposure 2012 (in millions $)

											a) By quarter							b) By commodity

											All exposures reported as the difference between the 95th percentile highest exposure and the expected baseline gross commodity exposure

											2 Estimated commodity volumes for 2012 by quarters (variable units in millions $)

											1 Commodity price projections (baseline 95 confidence band 5 confidence band)



Oliver Wyman Six Steps to Assess Commodity Risk Exposure

Read Me - File Overview

commodity risk management - oliver wyman

Documents

ReadMe

Interface

Interface

Cmdy Price Proj

Correlations

Sales Pricing Volumes

Gross Exposure

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

Simulation Net Exposure

Net Exposure

Fin Statement

Price shock contuity

Graph support

ReadMe

Interface

Interface

Cmdy Price Proj

Correlations

Sales Pricing Volumes

Gross Exposure

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

Simulation Net Exposure

Net Exposure

Fin Statement

Price shock contuity

Graph support

ReadMe

Interface

Interface

Cmdy Price Proj

Correlations

Sales Pricing Volumes

Gross Exposure

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

Simulation Net Exposure

Net Exposure

Fin Statement

Price shock contuity

Graph support

ReadMe

Interface

Interface

Cmdy Price Proj

Correlations

Sales Pricing Volumes

Gross Exposure

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

Simulation Net Exposure

Net Exposure

Fin Statement

Price shock contuity

Graph support

ReadMe

Interface

Interface

Cmdy Price Proj

Correlations

Sales Pricing Volumes

Gross Exposure

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

Simulation Net Exposure

Net Exposure

Fin Statement

Price shock contuity

Graph support

ReadMe

Interface

Interface

Cmdy Price Proj

Correlations

Sales Pricing Volumes

Gross Exposure

Risk Mgmt Portfolio

Simulation Net Exposure

Net Exposure

Fin Statement

Price shock contuity

Graph support