columnist for Agweb.comAGRIMoney.com FACEBOOK https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk TWITTER @WXRISKCOMemail: wxrisk@comcast.net SPRING FORECAST 2012.David Tolleris

yes it was a WIERD WINTER!!! Wet ECB No snow build up like last 2 winters LA NINA fading by MAY

OVERSEAS Argentina Drought severe cold coming Ukraine sw Rusisa very dry Manchuria

WINTER 2011-12 WHAT WINTER? SUPER WARM EAST OF THE ROCKIES

RATHER INACTIVE or NOT STORMY

NEAR RECORD WARMTH EAST OF THE ROCKIES . DEC 2011 JAN 2012 and FEB 2012

WHAT HE PREDICTED FOR WINTER 2011-12 SEVERE COLD IN EASTERN US ALL OF JAN 2012

MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL UK / WESTERN EUROPE

MASSIVE NE US SNOWSTORM JAN 11-14 it was in the 50s and 60s

COLD & SNOWY DEC IN UKRAINE / W. RUSSIA near record warmth

SEVERE HEAT MID JAN 2012 IN AUSTRALIA Bingo!

WINTER 2012 USA

WINTER 2012 USA

WHY was this WINTER so NON WINTRY? Pattern in early & Mid NOV got off to a terrible start and it never recoveredDevelopment of HUGE Upper Low in the Jet stream at 500 MB Alaska/ Bering Sea. This feature NEVER moved.Acted like a PLUG or barrier keeping all severe cold over Alaska so there was no build up of large cold air masses in central & eastern CanadaThis featured ensured very strong Pacific Jet which was resistant to any sort of Big troughs formingNAO very Positive: near record levels

NOTE the HUGE UPPER LOW that is located over ALASKA here in early NOV 2011 and VERY POSITIVE NAO OVER GREENLAND

Typical Winter cold PATTERN

Large UPPER LOW --BLUE over ALASKAMeans NO +PNA and NO way for cold to reach into central & eastern CONUS

12/26/2011 UPPER LOW over Alaska has not moved

PATTERN WINTER2010-11

Drought Indicators

In SPRING 2011 Soil Moisture maps showed 1) large area of saturated grounds over Upper Plains/Upper Miss valley 2) large Drought area over Deep South. The mean Jet stream closely followed this alignment of wet & dry areas and so did the main area of super active severe wx season of 2011

Going into SPRING 2012 Soil Moisture maps show a large area of saturated grounds over Ohio Valley into the Northeast and a large very Dry and Drought area over Deep South. This sort of pattern suggests a mean Jet stream fairly similar to SPRING 2011 season -- in others words a severe weather season with the most active area over the OHIO and / or TN valley

Current Status of La Nina

Current Status of La Nina Last Winters La Nina was STRONG this one MODERATE

Current Status of La Nina

JAN 15 FEB 15 La Nina Begins to decay in SPRING 2012 reaching NEUTRAL by MAY and WEAK El Nino by JULY?

What we are Looking for are SHORT Duration La Nina events that were either WEAK or MODERATE in intensity that DIED off late SPRING or Early SUMMER2011 20081985 1996 1968

the 5 possible analog years indicate pretty cold MAM for Canada MN and the Dakotas

the 5 possible analog years indicate WET ECB/ Ohio valley

SENSIBLE WEATHER.. 2001-02 and 1972-73 Were both VERY MILD and either snowless OR almost snowless winters

IRI CLIMATE MODEL from FEB valid for MARCH APRIL MAY (MAM) TEMPERATURES

IRI CLIMATE MODEL from FEB valid for MARCH APRIL MAY (MAM) PRECIPIATAION

CFS climate model FEB 23 shows a WET MARCH 2012 over the Midwest

CFS climate model FEB 23 shows a very warm MARCH 2012

This is the real wild card for the Summer of 2012. Rather than looking at ALL El Nino events since 1950 that have occurred in the Summer lets look at those El Nino events that BEGAN in MAY or JUNE. If we look at Just those event we come with the following El Nino events as possible analogs 19631965 1972 1982 19911997 and 2002 what if we move into EL NINO by JUNE?

EL NINO precip patterns for the 7 events than Began in MAY or JUNE

EL NINO Temperature patterns for the 7 events than Began in MAY or JUNE

As a general rule I HATE making early season calls like for the NEXT season. But if we look at Just those El Nino event that began in MAY or JUNE (19631965 1972 1982 19911997 and 2002) only 1 of those Hurricane seasons has 10+ named TC (2002) only 1 Intense TC -- category 3-4-5 hit the US (Betsy) the vast Majority of all TC activity formed out side or North of the MDR Main Development Region.

Over past 30 days central & eastern ARG gas seen BIG increases in rainfall some areas now wetter than Normal: but east central Brazil TURNED extremely dry

WHY the drought over ARG & SE BRAZIL? See the LARGE pool of super warm Sea surface Temps off the ARG/ se Brazil ? That pool has altered weather patterns

SURFACE MOISTURE

FEB actual FEB Rainfall Rainfall anomaly

FEB actual FEB RAINFALL Rainfall Anomaly

IRI model RAINFALL for MAM shows a DRY pattern for SW BRAZiL

IRI model for TEMPS for MAM shows a warm central Argentina

RAINFALL ANOMALIES JAN 22-FEB22

CHINA rainfall anomaly for JANUARY note the 25% or less over much of North China Plain into southern Manchuria

Still DRY of FEB 2012 over North China Plain

SOIL MOISTURE

IRI model TEMPS for MAM shows a warm northern China

IRI model RAINFALL for MAM shows a DRY northern China

FEB 2012 ACTUAL RAINFALL

FEB 2012 RAINFALL ANOMALIES -- is there a Drought developing for FRANCE and SPAIN?

IRI model for TEMPS for MAM shows a WARM western and central EUROPE

IRI model RAINFALL for MAM gives off no strong signal for either wetter or drier than Normal conditions

CANADA

RUSSIAN Rainfall end of winter

RUSSIAN Soil Moisture % of Normal at end of FEB 2012

RUSSIAN Sub Surface Soil Moisture at the of FEB 2012

SUMMARY SPRING starts off Wet ECB dry or Normal Lower WCB DRY Upper Plains & N WCB Weakening La NINA -- cold dry Canada delayed planting there WET over ECB: Upper Plains DRY

SUMMARY Ukraine Russia cold & snowy MARCH 2012 warm and dry over France DROUGHT over Spain will get worse in March MELTING SNOWS in Ukraine & sw Russia FLOODING issues DRYNESS over Manchuria and NCP in China could get worse this March and April