columbia university center for hazards and risk research overview cendim/chrr urm workshop october...
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Columbia University
Center for
Hazards and Risk Research
Overview
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
October 25-26, 2001
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 2
Center for Hazards and Risk Research
Organized April 2001 Part of Columbia Earth Institute Based at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Partners include The Wharton School,
Bogazici University, London School of Economics, others.
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 3
Organizing Themes for Hazard and Risk Studies
Science in service of Sustainable International Development
– Reducing Vulnerability / Building Resiliency
– Methods and Mechanisms of Risk Assessment and Risk Management
– Technological and social measures of risk
Multiple Hazards, Aggregate Risk
– Interactions, triggers, and amplification
Human activities that generate risk
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 4
Organizing Themes for Hazard and Risk Studies (cont.)
Community Knowledge System
– Assessments of Predictive Skill in S&T
– Assessment and communication of risk
– Assessment and communication of uncertainty
– Understanding decision strategies and mechanisms, and their inputs and outcomes
– Feedbacks for integrated studies
– Appropriate use of technology
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 5
What Is the relationship between “Hazard” and “Risk”?
“Hazard” is a process which has potential human impacts.
“Risk” is a function of both “hazard” and accumulated human assets.
“Concentration of assets” contributes to quantitative measures of risk.
Source: USGS, CIESIN
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 6
Risk is a Cultural Quantity
Different societies have different asset exposures
System effects can amplify the evaluation of risk
The study of risk mixes hazards (physical science) and vulnerability (engineering, social science)
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 7
Technical Risk vs. Social Risk
Asset census and Asset fragility
Integration over many scales Complexities due to
interdependencies not included
Not normative Measured in replacement
and repair costs (or loss of use)
Useful for cost-benefit analysis
Risk transference as an economic cost
Measures social and cultural disruptions
Measured in risk tolerance in relation to a self-defined state of well being
Highly normative Social and cultural
interdependencies critical Useful for choice analysis Issues of risk transference
harder to quantify, and hinge on moral arguments
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 8
Prediction and Predictability
New science is available to improve predictability of events and their impacts
New science is both empirical and model-based
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 9
Stress ‘climate’ is a manifestation of plate tectonics, but simple models of deformation are surprisingly good at predicting seismicity. (source: J. Deng, Ph.D. Thesis 1996, Columbia)
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 10
Research Model
Basic Research
Basic Research
Integrated Research
Integrated Research
Physical Science/Engineering Social Science
Extension/ApplicationsExtension/
Applications
Risk Assessment Risk Management
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 11
Fig. 1: Conceptual Illustration of Some Hazards and Their Process, Impact,
and Management Interactions
Research Investment: Hazard Reduction Impact Reduction
New Knowledge and/or Externalities and/or Externalities
Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Index: Reflects or illustrates 1) Physical Processes and Human Impacts Plus
2) Resource Allocation and Trade Offs Among Hazard Mitigation/Management Options
- Solid Earth
Processes
- Weather/Climate
Processes
- Human Activity
(e.g., Land-Use)
- Landslides
- Floods
- Structural (e.g.,
Dam Failure)
- Deaths
- Water Quality
Processes
- Earthquakes
- Severe Storms
- Water Pollution
Primary Hazards
Secondary Hazards
Primary Impacts
- Structural Design
- Policy (Zoning,
Land Use,
Regulation)
- Insurance
- Emergency
Response
Risk Reduction
Events
- Economic
- Human Health
- Ecological
Secondary Impacts
Risk Management
Source: K. Boyer
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 12
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Earth Processes Underlying Earthquakes, Landslides, Volcanoes
IRI Climate/Extreme Weather
Processes and Severe Storms, Floods, Droughts
SEASStructural Response,
Chemical Exposure, Built Environment and System
Response
CIESINData Integration,
Spatial Data Warehousing, Decision
Support ToolsCSTEP/SIPA/GSB/GSAPP Public Health
Regional Studies, Economics, Urban Planning, Policy,
Epidemiology
Hazards Research CenterCore Research
Multi-Hazard ProcessesCase Studies
Multi-Hazard Vulnerability IndexRisk Assessment/Management
Center for the Decision Sciences
Decision Making
EESJMedia
CSPO Science Policy
Illustration: K. Boyer
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 13
Center Programmatic Components
Basic Disciplinary Research Integrated Research Research Extension Training Extension Graduate and Other Formal Education
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 14
Improving Resilience
Emergency Response Hardening Built Environment Hardening Social Constructs
– Political– Economic– Cultural
Alternative Development Paths– Responsible Planning– Altered States
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 15
Single Hazard Model
Hazard Impact Risk Action
Knowledge areas incomplete, research required
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 16
Single Hazard Model
EarthquakeProcess Model
Fracture Mechanics
Tectonic Stress Model
Fault Topology
Anelastic structure
Near-surface structure
Event Genesis
Wave Propagation Model
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 17
Single Hazard Model
Impact
Process Model
(Built Environment)
Ground Motion
Structural Design
Soil-Structure Interactions
Structure Dynamics
Primary and SecondarySystem Response
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 18
Single Hazard Model
Risk andRisk Perception
Categorization
Tolerance Levels
Asset Concentrations(space and time)
Resiliency
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 19
Multiple Hazard Model(1st Generation)
Hazard Impact Risk Action
Hazard Impact Risk Action
Hazard Impact Risk Action
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 20
Multiple Hazard Model(2nd Generation)
Hazard Impact Risk
Hazard Impact Risk Action
Hazard Impact Risk
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 21
Multiple Hazard Model(3rd Generation)
IntegratedRisk
System
Action
IntegratedHazardSystem
IntegratedImpactSystem
Hazard Impact Risk
Hazard Impact Risk
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 22
Improving Resilience:Knowledge System Approach
“Product” orientation widely used to match scientific output to end-user needs.
Product design at provider level often assumes end-user knowledge is capped.
Elevating community knowledge base will produce higher-level outcomes
User-mediated science and technology outputs
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 23
Third Generation Multiple Hazard+ Information Technology
Action
IntegratedHazardSystem
IntegratedImpactSystem
Hazard Impact Risk
Hazard Impact Risk
Provider/UserCommunity
Interaction Model
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 24
Community Interaction Model
Links observational, modeling, simulation, prediction science
Links science to technology (engineering solutions)
Links solutions to risk management community
If near-real-time, links response and emergency management communities.
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 25
Community Feedback Loops
Feedback between sectors important for modulating basic S&T output.
Knowledge base kept high by combination of push and interactive technologies.
Heightened curiosity hastens application of new S&T advances in the field.
Move beyond virtual knowledge product generation.
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 26
IT Requirements for Implementation
Spatial data integration Monitoring and near-real-time data assimilation of time series Data QC, preliminary analysis, archiving, management for research and
products Physical descriptions: Characterizations and models Modeling and simulation codes and results Scenario building, description, and dissemination Data integration from other components Servicing decision pathways and community interactions
– Mitigation planning– Emergency response
Capturing feedbacks Formal and informal education Community outreach Products (push, interactive, user-mediated)
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 27
Education and Outreach
Certificate and Degree Programs Student and investigator exchange Integrated Project studios Professional awareness Public/political awareness Identifying stakeholders Links with digital media.
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 28
Highlights: TurkeyIncreased earthquake risk in Istanbul
• The 1999 Earthquake Sequence in Northwest Turkey points to the high likelihood of even more damaging earthquakes in the Marmara Sea (Istanbul) region, during the next few decades.
• The Center for Disaster Management (CENDIM) of Bogazici University and Columbia are initiating an alliance in research and education dealing with earthquake hazard risk reduction. Will extend Columbia’s current scientific work in the Marmara region and expand into structural and socio-economic risk assessment and risk management activity.
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 29
From: Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein, Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened
Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science 2000 288: 661-665
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 30
From: Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein,
Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science 2000 288: 661-665
Fig. 1. (A) Stress change caused by earthquakes since 1900. Shown are the maximum Coulomb stress changes between 0 and 20 km depth on optimally oriented vertical strike-slip faults (44). The assumed friction coefficient is 0.2, as has been found for strike-slip faults with large cumulative slip (45, 46). A 100-bar deviatoric tectonic stress with compression oriented N55°W (47) is used, under which optimally oriented right-lateral faults strike E-W except along the rupture surface. The 1993 to July 1999 seismicity recorded since installation of IZINET (7) has uniform coverage over the region shown. Calculated stress increases are associated with heightened seismicity rates and with the future epicenter of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake (indicated by star); sites of decreased stress exhibit low seismicity. (B) Izmit aftershocks are associated with stress increases caused by the main rupture [first 12 days from IZINET (7)], such as the Yalova cluster southeast of "Y," and the occurrence of the 12 November 1999 Düzce earthquake. Faults: Y, Yalova; P, Prince's Islands; M, Marmara; I, Izmit.
October 25-26, 2001 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop 31
From: Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein, Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened Odds
of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science 2000 288: 661-665
Figure 4. (A) Observed and modeled transient response to stress transfer. The 13 M 6.8 North Anatolian earthquakes for which the stress at the future epicenter was increased by 0.5 bars are plottedas a function of time. The earthquake rate decays as t-1 in a manner identical to aftershocks, as predicted by (29-32).
(B) Calculated probability of a M 7 earthquake (equivalent to MMI VIII shaking in greater Istanbul) as a function of time. The probability on each of three faults is summed (43). The large but decaying probability increase is caused by the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake. "Background” tracks the probability from earthquake renewal; "interaction" includes renewal and stress transfer. Light blue curve gives the probability had the Izmit earthquake not occurred.