Climate  Security  Vulnerability  in  Africa:  Strategic  Implica7ons  for  the  United  States    Josh  Busby    Associate  Professor  LBJ  School  of  Public  Affairs,  University  of  Texas  at  Aus=n    American  Security  Project,  Washington,  DC  December  2013  

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Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS)  

•  Causal  connec=ons  between  climate  change  and  security  

•  Governance  and  climate  change  

•  Foreign  aid  and  adapta=on  

 

Background

•  Under  what  condi=ons  could  U.S.  strategic  interests  and  na=onal  security  be  affected  by  climate  change?  

•  Where  do  U.S.  strategic  interests  intersect  with  climate  security  vulnerability  in  Africa?  

•  What  are  the  implica=ons  of  these  findings?    

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Overview  

•  “With  a  French  military  incursion  into  Mali,  terrorism  spreading,  Somalia  struggling  for  a  foothold,  and  narco-­‐  and  arms  trafficking  across  West  Africa,  among  other  security  concerns,  the  U.S.  military  has  plenty  to  worry  about.”  

–  2013  Foreign  Policy  ar5cle  “Africa  on  the  Brain  in  the  Pentagon”  

 

•  “[C]limate  change  effects  in  Africa  destabilize  fragile  states  by  overloading  the  poli=cal  systems  and  eroding  governmental  legi=macy.  Many  of  these  states  determine  con=nued  US  success  in  achieving  na=onal  security  objec=ves,  such  as  securing  strategic  mineral  and  fuel  source  access;  maintaining  freedom  of  naviga=on  covering  choke  points  and  sea  lines  of  communica=on;  comba=ng  terrorism;  maintaining  geopoli=cal  influence;  promo=ng  democracy;  and,  establishing  strong  market  economies.”    –  2011  Defense  Science  Board  report  on  

climate  change  and  security      

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Impetus  

Ø  Jennifer  Hazen,  Todd  G.  Smith,  Nisha  Krishnan,  Mesfin  Bekalo  

Ø  Overlays  of  strategic  significance  on  base  layer  of  climate  security  vulnerability  

 

•  Strategic  interests  •  Climate  security  

vulnerability  •  Strategic  overlays  •  Implica=ons  •  Applica=ons  

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Overview  

Strategic  Interests  

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Strategic  Interests  

Ø Direct  threat  to  homeland  Ø Threats  to  Americans  Ø Threats  to  interests  

– Allies  – Cri=cal  security  partners  – Key  nodes  in  the  global  economy  – Key  pathways  for  transporta=on  of  goods  – Natural  resources  and  economic  markets  – Violent  extremist  groups  

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Climate  Security  Vulnerability    

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Ø Where  large  numbers  of  people  at  risk  of  death  from  exposure  to  climate  related  hazards  

Ø  Chronic  Ø  Rela=ve  to  rest  of  Africa  Ø  Security    

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Climate  Security  Vulnerability  Model  (CSVM  3.0)  

•  Climate  Related  Hazard  Exposure    

•  Popula=on  Density  •  Household  and  Community  Resilience  

•  Governance  hBp://ccaps.aiddata.org/climate    

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Comparing  2.0  to  3.0  

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2.0   3.0  

Changes  from  2.0  to  3.0  

•  Mul=plica=ve  model  •  New  normaliza=on  procedure  on  0  to  1  scale  •  New  admin  1  shape  files  for  Africa  •  New,  revised  indicators  in  physical  basket  •  New  sub-­‐na=onal  indicators  in  household  basket  

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Strategic  Overlays    

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•  Raw  Materials  – Oil  – Cri=cal  minerals  

•  Terrorism  Events  •  Piracy  Events  •  US  Embassies/Consulates    

Strategic  Interests  

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Implica7ons  

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Possible  Links  Between  Climate  and  Security    

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Causal  Links    

•  Causal:  Nega=ve  security  outcomes  •  Causal:  Posi=ve  security  outcomes  •  Security  spillovers  •  Independent  and  unrelated  

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Applica7ons  

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Somalia  Security  Outcomes  of  Interest  •  Conflict  Onset  (1991)  •  Conflict  Con=nua=on  

(1991  -­‐  )  •  Leadership  Turnover  

(1991)  •  Famine  (1992,  2011)  •  Terrorism  Events  

(mid-­‐2000s)  •  Piracy  (mid-­‐2000s)  

•  Did  climate-­‐related  factors  play  a  role  in  any  of  these  outcomes?  –  Answer:  Most  clearly  in  the  

famines.  No  direct  trigger  before  the  1991  coup  and  violence.  Possible  trend  in  the  lead  up  to  1991  as  well  con=nua=on  of  violence.  Limited  evidence  associated  terrorism  and  piracy,  though  perhaps  indirectly  through  economic  growth  

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General  Trends  

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General  Trends  -­‐  Maystadt  

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Specific  Events  –  1991  Coup  

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Dry MSCP over 12 months Wet MSCP over 1 months

Rainfall Anomalies in Somalia June 1989-June 1995

Specific  Events  –  1991  Coup  -­‐  Trends  

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Dry Anomalies in Somalia

Specific  Events  –  Famines  

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Dry Anomalies in Somalia

Terrorism  Events  

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Piracy  Events  

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Basket  Maps  

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CLIMATE  RELATED  HAZARDS  DATA  SOURCES    

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POPULATION  DENSITY  DATA  SOURCES    

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HOUSEHOLD  RESILIENCE  DATA  SOURCES    

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GOVERNANCE  DATA  SOURCES    

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External  Valida7on  

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