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Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa: Strategic Implica7ons for the United States Josh Busby Associate Professor LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Aus=n American Security Project, Washington, DC December 2013
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Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS)
• Causal connec=ons between climate change and security
• Governance and climate change
• Foreign aid and adapta=on
Background
• Under what condi=ons could U.S. strategic interests and na=onal security be affected by climate change?
• Where do U.S. strategic interests intersect with climate security vulnerability in Africa?
• What are the implica=ons of these findings?
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Overview
• “With a French military incursion into Mali, terrorism spreading, Somalia struggling for a foothold, and narco-‐ and arms trafficking across West Africa, among other security concerns, the U.S. military has plenty to worry about.”
– 2013 Foreign Policy ar5cle “Africa on the Brain in the Pentagon”
• “[C]limate change effects in Africa destabilize fragile states by overloading the poli=cal systems and eroding governmental legi=macy. Many of these states determine con=nued US success in achieving na=onal security objec=ves, such as securing strategic mineral and fuel source access; maintaining freedom of naviga=on covering choke points and sea lines of communica=on; comba=ng terrorism; maintaining geopoli=cal influence; promo=ng democracy; and, establishing strong market economies.” – 2011 Defense Science Board report on
climate change and security
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Impetus
Ø Jennifer Hazen, Todd G. Smith, Nisha Krishnan, Mesfin Bekalo
Ø Overlays of strategic significance on base layer of climate security vulnerability
• Strategic interests • Climate security
vulnerability • Strategic overlays • Implica=ons • Applica=ons
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Overview
Strategic Interests
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Strategic Interests
Ø Direct threat to homeland Ø Threats to Americans Ø Threats to interests
– Allies – Cri=cal security partners – Key nodes in the global economy – Key pathways for transporta=on of goods – Natural resources and economic markets – Violent extremist groups
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Climate Security Vulnerability
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Ø Where large numbers of people at risk of death from exposure to climate related hazards
Ø Chronic Ø Rela=ve to rest of Africa Ø Security
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Climate Security Vulnerability Model (CSVM 3.0)
• Climate Related Hazard Exposure
• Popula=on Density • Household and Community Resilience
• Governance hBp://ccaps.aiddata.org/climate
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Comparing 2.0 to 3.0
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2.0 3.0
Changes from 2.0 to 3.0
• Mul=plica=ve model • New normaliza=on procedure on 0 to 1 scale • New admin 1 shape files for Africa • New, revised indicators in physical basket • New sub-‐na=onal indicators in household basket
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Strategic Overlays
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• Raw Materials – Oil – Cri=cal minerals
• Terrorism Events • Piracy Events • US Embassies/Consulates
Strategic Interests
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Implica7ons
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Possible Links Between Climate and Security
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Causal Links
• Causal: Nega=ve security outcomes • Causal: Posi=ve security outcomes • Security spillovers • Independent and unrelated
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Applica7ons
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Somalia Security Outcomes of Interest • Conflict Onset (1991) • Conflict Con=nua=on
(1991 -‐ ) • Leadership Turnover
(1991) • Famine (1992, 2011) • Terrorism Events
(mid-‐2000s) • Piracy (mid-‐2000s)
• Did climate-‐related factors play a role in any of these outcomes? – Answer: Most clearly in the
famines. No direct trigger before the 1991 coup and violence. Possible trend in the lead up to 1991 as well con=nua=on of violence. Limited evidence associated terrorism and piracy, though perhaps indirectly through economic growth
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General Trends
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General Trends -‐ Maystadt
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Specific Events – 1991 Coup
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Dry MSCP over 12 months Wet MSCP over 1 months
Rainfall Anomalies in Somalia June 1989-June 1995
Specific Events – 1991 Coup -‐ Trends
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Specific Events – Famines
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Dry Anomalies in Somalia
Terrorism Events
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Piracy Events
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Basket Maps
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CLIMATE RELATED HAZARDS DATA SOURCES
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POPULATION DENSITY DATA SOURCES
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HOUSEHOLD RESILIENCE DATA SOURCES
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GOVERNANCE DATA SOURCES
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External Valida7on
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