climate change science policy atiq bcas

8/2/2019 Climate Change Science Policy Atiq BCAS

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Brief Presentation on

Climate Change: Basic Concepts

(science, causes and consequences)

atUNDP, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Presented by

Dr. A. Atiq RahmanExecutive Director, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)

Visiting Professor, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,

Tufts University & Harvard University, USA

Chairman, Climate Action NetworkSouth Asia (CANSA)

13 March 2007


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Major Greenhouse Gas and Global

Warming Potential

Carbon dioxide (CO2) GWP 1

Methane (CH4

) GWP 24

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) GWP 310

CFC12 (CCI2F2) GWP 6200-7200

HCFC22(CHCIF2) GWP 1300-1400


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Molecular Structures

C

H

H C H

H

F

Cl C X

X

H

O

H

Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4)

Chlorofluorocarbons (CXn) Water (H2O)


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Sources of GHGs

Energy Sector

Energy Industry Manufacturing Industries

Transport

Residential Sector

Commercial

Agriculture

Agriculture Sector

Crop Agriculture

Livestock and Manure Management-

Landuse Change and Forestry

Conversion of Land

Consumption of Timber and Deforestation


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It is also found that over the last 400,000 years the Earth's

climate has been unstable, with very significant

temperature changes, going from a warm climate to an ice

age in as rapidly as a few decades.

Relationship betweenCO2 Concentration & Temperature

It is evident that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has

strong relationship with temperature.

These rapid changes suggest that climate may be quite

sensitive to internal or external climate forcings and

feedbacks.


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Is Climate Change a Reality?

Phases

Phase I (80ies): does Climate Change occur

and how much

Phase II (90ies): what are the impacts andvulnerabilities, emission reduction (mitigation)

Phase III (ongoing): adaptation

In Bangladesh awareness, concern and acceptance are

growing


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The best estimate is that the global average surface

temperature has increased by 0.6 +- 0.2 OC


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Simulate Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures


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The Global Climate of the 21st Century


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Expert Groupon Technology

Transfer

Institutions and Linkage

COP/MOP

Compliance Committee

Facilitative

Branch

Enforcement

Branch

Bureau

Plenary

CDM Executive

Board

Article 6

SupervisoryCommittee

Joint WorkingGroup

IPCC

COP

Bureau Bureau

SBSTA

SBI

Bureau

Secretariat

LDC ExpertGroup

Non-Annex-I

ConsultativeGroup of Expert

Financial

Mechanism


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Negotiating Blocks

Annex-I and Non-Annex I under convention

Responsibility and Commitment

Five Regional Groups

Africa, Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin Americaand the Caribbean states (GRULAC), and the WesternEurope and Others Group (WEOG)

In the negotiations

G77 and China

AOSIS

LDC

EU

Umbrella OPEC

Observer Organizations and Media


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Evolution of IPCC Assessment Report

IPCC FirstAssessment

Report

IPCC SecondAssessment

Report

IPCC ThirdAssessment

Report

IPCC FourthAssessment

Report

Climate+ Impacts

(Cost-effectiveness)

Climate+ Impacts

Cost-effectiveness

(Equity)

Climate+ Impacts

Cost-effectiveness

Equity

(AlternativeDevelopment

Pathway)

Climate+ Impacts

Cost-effectiveness

Equity

AlternativeDevelopment

Pathway

(SustainableDevelopment)

Najam et al.,(2003)


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Climate Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Human interference

MITIGATIONof climate change via

GHG sources and sinks

CLIMATE CHANGE including

variability

Policy responses

PlannedADAPTATION

to the impacts andvulnerabilities

Exposure,Sensitivity

Initial Impactsor Effects

AutonomousAdjustments

Residual orNet Impacts

IMP

AC

TS

V

U

LN

ERABILIT

IES

Source: IPCC


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Link between Climate Change and Development

SustainableDevelopment

Policies

SustainableDevelopment

ClimateChangePolicies

Climate Change Alternative Development Pathways Sectoral Environmental/economic policies Institutional/Managerial Change Innovation/technological Change

Avoided climate change damage Ancillary benefits/cost Direct national/sectoral cost Innovation/technical change

Source: Swart et al.., 2003


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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in bothhemispheres. Widespread decreases in glaciers and ice caps have

contributed to sea level rise Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per

year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003,about 3.1 mm per year.

Long-term trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in

precipitation amount over many large regions. Significantlyincreased precipitation has been observed in eastern parts of Northand South America, northern Europe and northern and centralAsia.

Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed

over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold nights and frost havebecome less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waveshave become more frequent


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Robust Findings(from 3rd assessment report)

Earth surface is warming. 1990 very likelywarmest decade in instrumental record

Concentration of main anthropogenic greenhouse

gases increased substantially since 1750 (CO2: 280

ppmv to 368 ppmv in 2000)

21 century increases mainly due to fossil fuels

Stabilization to

450, 650 or 1000 ppmv levels Would require to go back to 1990 levels in

two decade, one century or two century


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Unit Pre-ind 2000 2025 2050 2100

CO2 ppmv 280 368 540

970

Temp OC since1990

0.4 0.8 1.4

1.1 2.6 5.8

Prec Varies in 21st century from 5/20 % to + 5/20 %

SLR cm since1990 3 5 9

14 32 88


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Adverse impacts are expected to be more in

tropical and sub-tropical zones and fall

disproportionately upon developing countries and

poor persons within those countries

Adaptation

Has the potential t reduce adverse impacts of

climate change and can often produce

immediate ancillary benefit, but will not preventall damage

Can complement mitigation in a cost-effective

strategy to reduce climate change risks


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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process

1988 : World Meteorological Organization (WMO)establish the IPCC. The UN General Assembly takes up

climate change for the first time.

1990 : First Assessment Report of IPCC. Establishes anIntergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) for

framework convention on climate change.

1992 : UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC) adopted at the fifth session of the INC at New

York and Open for signature at the Earth Summit in

Brazil.


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1994 : 21 March, the convention enters into force afterratification by 58 Parities.

Objectives of the UNFCCC

Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in theatmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous

anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Such level should be achievedwithin a timeframe

sufficient toallow ecosystems to adapt naturally toclimate change, to ensure thatfood production is not

threatenedand to enable economic development to

proceedin a sustainable manner


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1995 : First Session of the Conference of the Parties COP1,Berlin, Germany.

Established the Ad hoc Group on Berlin Mandate (AGBM)

to carry out a process that would enable it to take

appropriate action beyond the year 2000, including the

strengthening of the commitments of the Annex I Parties

through a protocol or other legal instrument.

1996 : Second Session of the Conference of the Parties

COP2, Geneva, Switzerland

Ministerial Declaration confirming the findings of the IPCCSecond Assessment Report (SAR) and calling for legally

binding commitments

US announced its support for a legally binding protocol or

other legal instrument


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1997 : Third Session of Conference of the Parties (COP),Kyoto, Japan

Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP)

with the unprecedented, legally enforced ambition of

limiting and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions Average reduction target is 5.2 percent

Three Flexible Mechanisms, Joint Implementation,

Emission Trading, and Clean Development Mechanism

1998 : The Kyoto Protocol opened for signature at UN

headquarters in New York. It has an equation of 55

countries and 55% emission of Annex I countries to enter

into force.


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1998 : Fourth Session of the Conference of the Parties,

Buenos Aires, Argentina

Adopts the Buenos Aires Plan ofAction.

The Parties declared their determination to strengthen the

implementation of the Convention and prepare for the

future entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol.

The Plan contains the Partiesresolution to demonstrate

substantial progress on:

the financial mechanism;

the development and transfer of technology;

the implementation of FCCC Articles 4.8 and 4.9, as

well as Protocol Articles 2.3 and 3.14; activities implemented jointly (AIJ);

the mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol; and

the preparations for COP/MOP-1.


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1999 : Fifth Session of the Conference of the Parties,Bonn, Germany

Parties set a two-year deadline for strengthening FCCC

implementation and preparing for the future entry into

force of the Kyoto Protocol.

2000 : Sixth session of the Conference of the Parties held

in the Hague, The Netherlands Could not came to a consensus on the implementation of

the convention and adoption of the protocol.

2001 : Second part of the sixth session of the Conference

of the Parties held on 18-27 July at Bonn to come to a

consensus. Finally Parties to UNFCCC came to a consensus to

implement KP.


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2001 : Seventh Session of the Conference of the Parties,Marrakech, Morocco

Sought to finalize agreement on the operational details for

commitments on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases

under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

Sought agreement on actions to strengthen

implementation of the UNFCCC

finalized procedures and modalities of the flexible

mechanism

Decisions known as Marrakech Accords3 decisionsadopted

LDC funds for Preparation of NAPA (UNEF and UNDP)

Establishment of LDC Expert Group

Adopted Terms of References of the LEG


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2002 : Eighth Session of the Conference of the Parties,

New Delhi, India

Delhi Declaration

reaffirms the development and poverty eradication is

an overriding priority of the developing countries

Need to address both mitigation and adaptation

measures

Urge Parties to Ratify Kyoto Protocol

Investment in Innovative Technologies and StrengthenTechnology Transfer


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2003 : Ninth Session of the Conference of the Parties,Milan, Italy

Key Issues

Agreement on the Findings of the Third Assessment

Report Review of Methodological Issue under UNFCCC and

KP

Finalization of modalities of Afforestation and

Refforestation under the CDM

FundingSpecial Climate Change Fund, LDC Fund,and Adaptation Fund

Technology Transfer and

Information Dissemination and Capacity Building


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2004 : Tenth Session of the Conference of the Parties,

Buenos Aires, Argentina

Key Issues

Implementation of decision 5 of COP7 known as

5/CP7 related to article 4.8 and 4.9

Finalization of Operational Modalities of Different

Funds prepared by GEF

Finalization of modalities of Afforestation and

Refforestation under the CDM

FundingSpecial Climate Change Fund, LDC Fund,

and Adaptation Fund

Education, Awareness and InformationDissemination

Capacity Building

Issues Related to LDC


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Commitments under UNFCCC

UNFCC : Article 4 contains all commitments of the

Parities. It has 9 sub-articles explaining commitments and

responsibilities of the Parties.

Article 4.1 : Develop.update.national inventories..emissions by sources.implement regional programmes

containing measures to mitigate climate change.

Article 4.2 : Annex I Parties shall adopt national policesand take corresponding measures on the mitigation of

climate change,.


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Commitments under UNFCCC (continued.)

Article 4.3 : The developed country parties.shall

provide new and additional financial resources to meet the

agreed full cost incurred by developing country parties...

Article 4.4 : Developed country parties.shall also assistthe developing country parties.in meeting cost of

adaptation to adverse impacts of climate change.

Article 4.5 : Developed country parties.shall takepracticable steps to promote..environmentally sound

technologies..to.developing country parties.


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Article 4.6 : Certain degree of flexibility shall be allowed

by the conference of the parties to the partiesundergoing

the process of transition to a market economy.....

Article 4.7 : Commitment of the developing country

parties will depend on effective implementation of the

commitments of the developed country parties related to

financial resources.


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Article 4.8 : action related to funding, insurance and thetransfer of technology to meet the needs and concerns of

developing country parties arising from the adverse effects

of climate change, especially on:

a. small island countries;

b. countries with low-lying coastal areas

c. countries with arid and semi-arid areas, forested

areas and areas liable to forest decay;

d. countries with area liable to natural disasters;

e. countries with areas liable to drought anddesertification

f. countries with areas of high urban atmospheric

pollution

g. fragile ecosystem


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Article 4.9 : funding and technology transfer

Article 4.10 : The parties shall consider situation of the

developing country parties to implement commitment ofthe convention


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The Kyoto Protocol

to the Convention on Climate Change

To meet the commitment under UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol

has devised three flexible mechanism for reducing

greenhouse gases.

The protocol has 28 articles, 3 of which will help annex I

countries to meet their reduction commitment under

UNFCCC.

These are Joint Implementation (article 6), Clean

Development Mechanism (article 12) and Emission

Trading (article 17).


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The Kyoto Protocol

to the Convention on Climate Change

Article 6 : Annex I may transfer to, or acquire from, any

other such party emission reduction unit (ERU).

Article 12 : CDM shall have to assist parties not included

in Annex I in achieving sustainable development..and

to assist parties included in Annex I in achieving

compliance with their quantified emission limitation and

reduction commitments.

Article 17 : Annex-B parties may participate in emission

trading to fulfill their commitments. This is a non-project

based activity.


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Bangladesh Position in Negotiation

In Climate Change Negotiation, Government of

Bangladesh supports the negotiating position of Group 77

plus China.

Group 77 plus China is supportive to the Kyoto Protocoland pursuing for ratification by Annex I countries.

There are some level of disagreements on few issues

among them due to its nature of diverseness.


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What is being done

DNA

Climate Cell & CDMP NAPA

LDC Leadership

CDM Projects

BCAS

Solar PV with GrameenShakti

Efficient Florescent

Bulb with GrameenShakti and EnergyPac

Waste Concern

Municipal WasteManagement

GEF Funding

NAPA

Institutional Team

Projects

Experiences


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Climate Change Studies in Bangladesh

1992: Study on Vulnerability to Climate Change by BCAS

with support from USEPA

Effect of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise on

Bangladesh By Dr. Fasiuddin Mahtab (1989) Sponsored by

Commonwealth Institute

The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change: An

Assessment of the Effects on Bangladesh By Bangladesh

Unnayan Parishad, CEARS New Zealand and Climate

Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, UK, 1993

Country Study on Bangladesh under Regional Study of

Global Environmental Issues Project (Asian Development

Bank TA No. 5463) on the Impact of Climate Change inBangladesh, the Available Options for Adaptation and

Mitigation Measure and Response Strategies, 1994 By

Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS),

Dhaka, Bangladesh.


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Climate Change Studies in Bangladesh

Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Climate Change and Sea Level RiseBy Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) /Resource

Analysis (RA) /Approtech Ltd., 1994 with support from TheNetherlands Government.

Climate Change Country Study Bangladesh under U. S. ClimateChange Study Programme By Bangladesh Centre for AdvancedStudies (BCAS)/BIDS/BUP, 1996 with support from USGovernment.

Reconnaissance Study on the Use of Ozone Depleting Substances(ODS) in Bangladesh By Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies(BCAS), 1993

Update of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) in Bangladesh ByBangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), 1996

Asian Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)

by BCAS, BIDS, BUET and BUP, 1998 with support from AsianDevelopment Bank.

Initial National Communication to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Formulation of Bangladesh Adaptation Programme of Action for

Adaptation to Climate Change (NAPA)

TEMPERATURE CONDITION OF BANGLADESH IN 2030 & 2075


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INTERNATIONALBOUNDARY

COASTALBOUNDARY

Temperature in 1990 C

Dhaka Chittagong Sylhet Rajshahi Khulna

January 18.40 19.90 16.90 18.30 20.40

July 28.50 27.70 28.50 29.00 28.60December 19.40 20.50 18.40 19.30 20.90

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January July December

1990

2030

2075



January 18.40 19.90 16.90 18.30 20.40July 28.50 27.70 28.50 29.00 28.60

December 19.40 20.50 18.40 19.30 20.90



January 19.53 19.90 17.89 20.28 21.25

July 30.06 29.40 30.20 30.70 30.16December 21.67 22.48 20.67 21.43 22.88

YEAR

MAPS SHOWING EXISTING DROUGHT,


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AND DROUGHT IN THE YEAR 2030 & 2075

EXISTING DROUGHT

DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON)

Very Severe DroughtSevere Drought

Moderate Drought

Less Moderate Drought

Slight Drought

Very Slight to Nil

Severe & Moderate

Moderate & Less Moderate

Sunderbans

Forest

ADDITIONAL DROUGHT

PRONE AREAS IN 2030

ADDITIONAL DROUGHT

PRONE AREAS IN 2075



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AND DROUGHT IN THE YEAR 2030 & 2075

EXISTING DROUGHT

DROUGHT CLASSES (KHARIF SEASON)

Very Severe DroughtSevere Drought

Moderate Drought

Less Moderate Drought

Slight Drought

Very Slight to NilSevere & Moderate

Moderate & Less Moderate

Sunderbans

Forest

ADDITIONAL DROUGHT

PRONE AREAS IN 2030

ADDITIONAL DROUGHT

PRONE AREAS IN 2075


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Most Vulnerable Sectors and

Adaptation Options

Vulnerable Sectors

Coastal zone resources

Freshwater resources

Agriculture

Human health

Ecosystem and Biodiversity

Area of Adaptation Physical

Institutional

Social


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Responding toClimate Change

The Basic Concepts:Politics & Negotiations


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Approaches to solutions and actions

Mitigation

Kyoto Protocol (the first limited action)

Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI, Emissions

Trading)

Adaptation

First potential for funding

NAPA (National Action Plan for Adaption)


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Southern Perspectives

Is there a South?

What is a Southern Perspective? There are many, infact

G77+China

NICs (potentially large emitters): China, India, Brazil,Indonesia, South Africa

High per capita emitters: South Korea, Singapore,Malaysia

OPEC

AOSIS: Threatened and extremely vulnerable

LDCs: Poorer and Vulnerable


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Developing Countries

Development Priority

Climate Sensitive Development

Decarbonization of Production/ConsumptionProcesses

Institutional Development & Capacity Building

Agenda Setting

Research

Negotiations

Local and (or versus?) Global Good

E l ti d E t f th


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Evolution and Engagement of the

South

INC (1-11)

Rio Declaration UNFCCC

Berlin Mandate (COP-1)

Kyoto Protocol and Mechanisms

Marrakech Accord: Adaptation

Beyond Kyoto


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North-South Dialogue

1. Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility2. Those who committed MUST ACT

Early Beginning Inadequate No-hurt syndrome

3. KP was an Intra-North Dialogue First CommitmentPeriod

4. Committed Emitters vs. Emerging Emitters5. Kyoto Mechanisms:

Real GHG Reduction Not Transfer of Carbon


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Climate Convention Signed:

But Whose Climate?

Kyoto Protocol agreed:

Who reduces?

E hi l B i f E i


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Ethical Basis for Equity

Two Concepts:

1. All human beings are equal (UN)2. All people must have equal rights to global

commons including the atmosphere and oceans(GFEP Declaration, UNCED)

Per capita entitlement concept Subsistence vs. non-subsistence GHG

(greenhouse gas) emissions (CH4, CO2) Cooking vs. Car mileage Right to Sustainable Development vs.

Responsibility to Sustainable Development At what rate is mass death is genocide?! Slavery, poverty convention!


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Issues and Concerns

Responsibility for Climate Change and Role of North

Is it new for Environmental Colonialism?

Capacity Building Who will pay?

Role of Government

Is it an Unfair Trade: Climate Change is a newdimension

Small Countries: Low Polluters can they benefitfrom Climate Change


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Issues and Concerns

Per capita allocation

Future:

1990 Baseline

Per capita Annex 1 emissions when reached

graduate Is it compatible with global reduction need

Ecological Integrity

Uncertainties

In Science (IPCC) Costing: of Actions, Non-Actions

Beyond Kyoto (Second [+] Commitment Period[s])

Northern and Southern views


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Northern and Southern views

Northern view: the South mustparticipate Southern view:

The North is the cause of climate change (interms of historical emissions)

The North is not doing enough

Kyoto is in trouble US: abandoned its commitments

EU: Slow to react

First inadequate small steps

Science (IPCC) requires rapid reduction


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Government perspective from China

The developed countries should take the lead inchanging the ways of production andconsumption that are inconsistent with

sustainable development, take a more activepart in addressing the global environmentalissues and help the developing countries withconcrete deeds


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Government perspective from China

More transfers of funds and technology shouldbe made to the developing countries toensure their rights to equal development in

the age of economic globalization andpromote capacity building in these countriesPresident of PRC, Jiang Zemin


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Government perspective from Bangladesh

As a natural disaster-prone country, Bangladesh havedeveloped a variety of coping mechanisms at formaland informal levels. This has greatly reduced theloss of life and property from such disasters.

However, in recent yeas, the frequency of extremeclimatic events, such as floods and cyclones haveincreased worldwide. This is causing great havocparticularly to the LDCs.Prime Minister of

Bangladesh, Begum Khaleda Zia


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The South is Acting

China: Energy shift, Energy Efficiency

India: Wind Energy

Bangladesh: Massive Tree Plantation

Brazil: Alcohol Fuel

Kenya, India, Bangladesh: Off-grid Solar PVinitiatives


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Country case studies of the South

Bangladesh: Most Vulnerable

Displacement

Ecosystem Threatened

Threatening Development Food Security

Doing a lot

CDM and Adaptation (NAPA)


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Country case studies of the South

Maldives Threatened

Can do very little

Sovereignty in question

Nepal

Elevated rate of snow melt

Glacial Loss

Ecosystem threatened Social Instability

Sustainable Development Implementation:

Different levels of interactive Management and Decision Making


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Different levels of interactive Management and Decision Making

MEGA

MESO

MICRO

MACRO

Super-Macro

Sub-Mega

SUB-NATIONAL LEVEL

District, Local Government, River Basic

Eco-specific

LOCAL LEVEL

Community, Family,Individuals

NATIONAL LEVEL

National Government,National Civil Society

REGIONAL LEVEL

ADB, ESCAP, APNCSD, APEC, SAARC,Regional Civil Society

GLOBAL LEVEL

UN, UNFCCC, CSD, WTO, WB, IMF,International Civil Society

The Greenhouse Gases and their


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Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4)

CFCs, HCFCs, CCl4, Methyl bromide

Oxides of nitrogen (N2), NOx) Carbon monoxide (CO)

Water vapour

Concepts on GHGs

Total Amount

Concentration

Global Warming Potential

The Greenhouse Gases and their

political significance

Typology of Natural Disaster Likely


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Typology of Natural Disaster Likely

Impact of Climate Change

Floods and inundations Saline Intrusion

Cyclones, Typhoons, Storm Surges, Tornadoes, Hurricanes Droughts Pests/Locusts

Disease: Outbreaks and Vectors

Forest Fires Landslides

Heat Waves/Cold Waves, Temperature Extremes Sea Level Rise Riverbank Erosion

Increase

None


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Key Stressors

Temperature Increase

SLR (Sea Level Rise) Population Shift

Carbon Concentration Increase

Sectors

Extent of Events

Intensity

Frequency

Desertification/Drought

Salt Water/Flood/Inundation

Ecosystem: Extent Food Security - Poverty

A preliminary vulnerability assessment


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for agriculture

Identification of the crops, geographical regions,and rural populations most likely to be vulnerable

Description of the vulnerable crops, regions andgroups as well as the reasons for their

vulnerability Analysis of analogous regions (e.g., warmer

regions of the country) under current climateregimes to help identify implications for future

response to climate change



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for agriculture

Projections of the expected magnitude of theimpacts, expressed qualitatively (e.g.,positive, negative, or no impact on crop yield)

Examination of potential adaptationmeasures, with explicit study of theirexpected effectiveness and costs.


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Challenges ahead

1. Universal participation

2. Low emission/high development paradigm

3. Capacity in the South

4. Science to Action

5. Technology funding

6. Government/Private Sector/NGOs collaboration

7. Kyoto without ratification

8. Building on good practices

Th R liti f Cli t Ch


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The Realities of Climate Change

Emerging Scientific Consensus on Climate Change(IPCC)

Ground Realities:

Increasing Awareness of Communities

Increasing Extreme Weather Events

Experiences of Coping with Climate Variability

How to respond to Climate Change

All developments assumed Climate Change

Agriculture

Infrastructure Ecosystem Management

Precipitation

Responses


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Responses

Global: IPCC Understanding Scienceand Reducing Uncertainty

Climate Convention Inter-government

Block Negotiations Lowest Common Denominator

Big on talks, low on action

Kyoto Protocol: First Small Step

Bogged Down South is compromising

lowering bar

Global risk increasing

R


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Responses

National: Create Awareness Some Actions, More Reports

Institutionalization

Some Integration in Sectors

Private Sector: Early Initiations of CDM

Delay dampen enthusiasms

New Climate Change Marketing

Some feel threatened others look foropportunities

R


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NGOs:Greater Research

Raising Concerns and Awareness

Equity Issues Highlighted

Lower Thrust on Commitment, more on

Technical Options

Increasingly reaching from Environment

to Development

Appreciation of Mitigation and

adaptation

Southern NGOs, mostly left

unsupported

Responses


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Disaster Management

Impact-Adaptation Relationship

=

X X

Intensity of

Event

BaselineConditions AdaptiveCapacity

ImpactEvent

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