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Brief Presentation on
Climate Change: Basic Concepts
(science, causes and consequences)
atUNDP, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Presented by
Dr. A. Atiq RahmanExecutive Director, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)
Visiting Professor, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,
Tufts University & Harvard University, USA
Chairman, Climate Action NetworkSouth Asia (CANSA)
13 March 2007
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Major Greenhouse Gas and Global
Warming Potential
Carbon dioxide (CO2) GWP 1
Methane (CH4
) GWP 24
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) GWP 310
CFC12 (CCI2F2) GWP 6200-7200
HCFC22(CHCIF2) GWP 1300-1400
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Molecular Structures
C
H
H C H
H
F
Cl C X
X
H
O
H
Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4)
Chlorofluorocarbons (CXn) Water (H2O)
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Sources of GHGs
Energy Sector
Energy Industry Manufacturing Industries
Transport
Residential Sector
Commercial
Agriculture
Agriculture Sector
Crop Agriculture
Livestock and Manure Management-
Landuse Change and Forestry
Conversion of Land
Consumption of Timber and Deforestation
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It is also found that over the last 400,000 years the Earth's
climate has been unstable, with very significant
temperature changes, going from a warm climate to an ice
age in as rapidly as a few decades.
Relationship betweenCO2 Concentration & Temperature
It is evident that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has
strong relationship with temperature.
These rapid changes suggest that climate may be quite
sensitive to internal or external climate forcings and
feedbacks.
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Is Climate Change a Reality?
Phases
Phase I (80ies): does Climate Change occur
and how much
Phase II (90ies): what are the impacts andvulnerabilities, emission reduction (mitigation)
Phase III (ongoing): adaptation
In Bangladesh awareness, concern and acceptance are
growing
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The best estimate is that the global average surface
temperature has increased by 0.6 +- 0.2 OC
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Simulate Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures
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Simulate Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures
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Simulate Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures
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The Global Climate of the 21st Century
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The Global Climate of the 21st Century
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The Global Climate of the 21st Century
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Expert Groupon Technology
Transfer
Institutions and Linkage
COP/MOP
Compliance Committee
Facilitative
Branch
Enforcement
Branch
Bureau
Plenary
CDM Executive
Board
Article 6
SupervisoryCommittee
Joint WorkingGroup
IPCC
COP
Bureau Bureau
SBSTA
SBI
Bureau
Secretariat
LDC ExpertGroup
Non-Annex-I
ConsultativeGroup of Expert
Financial
Mechanism
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Negotiating Blocks
Annex-I and Non-Annex I under convention
Responsibility and Commitment
Five Regional Groups
Africa, Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin Americaand the Caribbean states (GRULAC), and the WesternEurope and Others Group (WEOG)
In the negotiations
G77 and China
AOSIS
LDC
EU
Umbrella OPEC
Observer Organizations and Media
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Evolution of IPCC Assessment Report
IPCC FirstAssessment
Report
IPCC SecondAssessment
Report
IPCC ThirdAssessment
Report
IPCC FourthAssessment
Report
Climate+ Impacts
(Cost-effectiveness)
Climate+ Impacts
Cost-effectiveness
(Equity)
Climate+ Impacts
Cost-effectiveness
Equity
(AlternativeDevelopment
Pathway)
Climate+ Impacts
Cost-effectiveness
Equity
AlternativeDevelopment
Pathway
(SustainableDevelopment)
Najam et al.,(2003)
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Climate Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
Human interference
MITIGATIONof climate change via
GHG sources and sinks
CLIMATE CHANGE including
variability
Policy responses
PlannedADAPTATION
to the impacts andvulnerabilities
Exposure,Sensitivity
Initial Impactsor Effects
AutonomousAdjustments
Residual orNet Impacts
IMP
AC
TS
V
U
LN
ERABILIT
IES
Source: IPCC
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Link between Climate Change and Development
SustainableDevelopment
Policies
SustainableDevelopment
ClimateChangePolicies
Climate Change Alternative Development Pathways Sectoral Environmental/economic policies Institutional/Managerial Change Innovation/technological Change
Avoided climate change damage Ancillary benefits/cost Direct national/sectoral cost Innovation/technical change
Source: Swart et al.., 2003
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in bothhemispheres. Widespread decreases in glaciers and ice caps have
contributed to sea level rise Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per
year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003,about 3.1 mm per year.
Long-term trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in
precipitation amount over many large regions. Significantlyincreased precipitation has been observed in eastern parts of Northand South America, northern Europe and northern and centralAsia.
Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed
over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold nights and frost havebecome less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waveshave become more frequent
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Robust Findings(from 3rd assessment report)
Earth surface is warming. 1990 very likelywarmest decade in instrumental record
Concentration of main anthropogenic greenhouse
gases increased substantially since 1750 (CO2: 280
ppmv to 368 ppmv in 2000)
21 century increases mainly due to fossil fuels
Stabilization to
450, 650 or 1000 ppmv levels Would require to go back to 1990 levels in
two decade, one century or two century
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Robust Findings(from 3rd assessment report)
Unit Pre-ind 2000 2025 2050 2100
CO2 ppmv 280 368 540
970
Temp OC since1990
0.4 0.8 1.4
1.1 2.6 5.8
Prec Varies in 21st century from 5/20 % to + 5/20 %
SLR cm since1990 3 5 9
14 32 88
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Robust Findings(from 3rd assessment report)
Adverse impacts are expected to be more in
tropical and sub-tropical zones and fall
disproportionately upon developing countries and
poor persons within those countries
Adaptation
Has the potential t reduce adverse impacts of
climate change and can often produce
immediate ancillary benefit, but will not preventall damage
Can complement mitigation in a cost-effective
strategy to reduce climate change risks
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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process
1988 : World Meteorological Organization (WMO)establish the IPCC. The UN General Assembly takes up
climate change for the first time.
1990 : First Assessment Report of IPCC. Establishes anIntergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) for
framework convention on climate change.
1992 : UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) adopted at the fifth session of the INC at New
York and Open for signature at the Earth Summit in
Brazil.
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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process
1994 : 21 March, the convention enters into force afterratification by 58 Parities.
Objectives of the UNFCCC
Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in theatmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Such level should be achievedwithin a timeframe
sufficient toallow ecosystems to adapt naturally toclimate change, to ensure thatfood production is not
threatenedand to enable economic development to
proceedin a sustainable manner
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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process
1995 : First Session of the Conference of the Parties COP1,Berlin, Germany.
Established the Ad hoc Group on Berlin Mandate (AGBM)
to carry out a process that would enable it to take
appropriate action beyond the year 2000, including the
strengthening of the commitments of the Annex I Parties
through a protocol or other legal instrument.
1996 : Second Session of the Conference of the Parties
COP2, Geneva, Switzerland
Ministerial Declaration confirming the findings of the IPCCSecond Assessment Report (SAR) and calling for legally
binding commitments
US announced its support for a legally binding protocol or
other legal instrument
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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process
1997 : Third Session of Conference of the Parties (COP),Kyoto, Japan
Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP)
with the unprecedented, legally enforced ambition of
limiting and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions Average reduction target is 5.2 percent
Three Flexible Mechanisms, Joint Implementation,
Emission Trading, and Clean Development Mechanism
1998 : The Kyoto Protocol opened for signature at UN
headquarters in New York. It has an equation of 55
countries and 55% emission of Annex I countries to enter
into force.
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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process
1998 : Fourth Session of the Conference of the Parties,
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Adopts the Buenos Aires Plan ofAction.
The Parties declared their determination to strengthen the
implementation of the Convention and prepare for the
future entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol.
The Plan contains the Partiesresolution to demonstrate
substantial progress on:
the financial mechanism;
the development and transfer of technology;
the implementation of FCCC Articles 4.8 and 4.9, as
well as Protocol Articles 2.3 and 3.14; activities implemented jointly (AIJ);
the mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol; and
the preparations for COP/MOP-1.
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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process
1999 : Fifth Session of the Conference of the Parties,Bonn, Germany
Parties set a two-year deadline for strengthening FCCC
implementation and preparing for the future entry into
force of the Kyoto Protocol.
2000 : Sixth session of the Conference of the Parties held
in the Hague, The Netherlands Could not came to a consensus on the implementation of
the convention and adoption of the protocol.
2001 : Second part of the sixth session of the Conference
of the Parties held on 18-27 July at Bonn to come to a
consensus. Finally Parties to UNFCCC came to a consensus to
implement KP.
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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process
2001 : Seventh Session of the Conference of the Parties,Marrakech, Morocco
Sought to finalize agreement on the operational details for
commitments on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases
under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
Sought agreement on actions to strengthen
implementation of the UNFCCC
finalized procedures and modalities of the flexible
mechanism
Decisions known as Marrakech Accords3 decisionsadopted
LDC funds for Preparation of NAPA (UNEF and UNDP)
Establishment of LDC Expert Group
Adopted Terms of References of the LEG
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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process
2002 : Eighth Session of the Conference of the Parties,
New Delhi, India
Delhi Declaration
reaffirms the development and poverty eradication is
an overriding priority of the developing countries
Need to address both mitigation and adaptation
measures
Urge Parties to Ratify Kyoto Protocol
Investment in Innovative Technologies and StrengthenTechnology Transfer
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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process
2003 : Ninth Session of the Conference of the Parties,Milan, Italy
Key Issues
Agreement on the Findings of the Third Assessment
Report Review of Methodological Issue under UNFCCC and
KP
Finalization of modalities of Afforestation and
Refforestation under the CDM
FundingSpecial Climate Change Fund, LDC Fund,and Adaptation Fund
Technology Transfer and
Information Dissemination and Capacity Building
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Key Landmarks in the Climate Change Process
2004 : Tenth Session of the Conference of the Parties,
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Key Issues
Implementation of decision 5 of COP7 known as
5/CP7 related to article 4.8 and 4.9
Finalization of Operational Modalities of Different
Funds prepared by GEF
Finalization of modalities of Afforestation and
Refforestation under the CDM
FundingSpecial Climate Change Fund, LDC Fund,
and Adaptation Fund
Education, Awareness and InformationDissemination
Capacity Building
Issues Related to LDC
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Commitments under UNFCCC
UNFCC : Article 4 contains all commitments of the
Parities. It has 9 sub-articles explaining commitments and
responsibilities of the Parties.
Article 4.1 : Develop.update.national inventories..emissions by sources.implement regional programmes
containing measures to mitigate climate change.
Article 4.2 : Annex I Parties shall adopt national policesand take corresponding measures on the mitigation of
climate change,.
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Commitments under UNFCCC (continued.)
Article 4.3 : The developed country parties.shall
provide new and additional financial resources to meet the
agreed full cost incurred by developing country parties...
Article 4.4 : Developed country parties.shall also assistthe developing country parties.in meeting cost of
adaptation to adverse impacts of climate change.
Article 4.5 : Developed country parties.shall takepracticable steps to promote..environmentally sound
technologies..to.developing country parties.
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Commitments under UNFCCC (continued.)
Article 4.6 : Certain degree of flexibility shall be allowed
by the conference of the parties to the partiesundergoing
the process of transition to a market economy.....
Article 4.7 : Commitment of the developing country
parties will depend on effective implementation of the
commitments of the developed country parties related to
financial resources.
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Commitments under UNFCCC (continued.)
Article 4.8 : action related to funding, insurance and thetransfer of technology to meet the needs and concerns of
developing country parties arising from the adverse effects
of climate change, especially on:
a. small island countries;
b. countries with low-lying coastal areas
c. countries with arid and semi-arid areas, forested
areas and areas liable to forest decay;
d. countries with area liable to natural disasters;
e. countries with areas liable to drought anddesertification
f. countries with areas of high urban atmospheric
pollution
g. fragile ecosystem
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Commitments under UNFCCC (continued.)
Article 4.9 : funding and technology transfer
Article 4.10 : The parties shall consider situation of the
developing country parties to implement commitment ofthe convention
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The Kyoto Protocol
to the Convention on Climate Change
To meet the commitment under UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol
has devised three flexible mechanism for reducing
greenhouse gases.
The protocol has 28 articles, 3 of which will help annex I
countries to meet their reduction commitment under
UNFCCC.
These are Joint Implementation (article 6), Clean
Development Mechanism (article 12) and Emission
Trading (article 17).
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The Kyoto Protocol
to the Convention on Climate Change
Article 6 : Annex I may transfer to, or acquire from, any
other such party emission reduction unit (ERU).
Article 12 : CDM shall have to assist parties not included
in Annex I in achieving sustainable development..and
to assist parties included in Annex I in achieving
compliance with their quantified emission limitation and
reduction commitments.
Article 17 : Annex-B parties may participate in emission
trading to fulfill their commitments. This is a non-project
based activity.
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Bangladesh Position in Negotiation
In Climate Change Negotiation, Government of
Bangladesh supports the negotiating position of Group 77
plus China.
Group 77 plus China is supportive to the Kyoto Protocoland pursuing for ratification by Annex I countries.
There are some level of disagreements on few issues
among them due to its nature of diverseness.
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What is being done
DNA
Climate Cell & CDMP NAPA
LDC Leadership
CDM Projects
BCAS
Solar PV with GrameenShakti
Efficient Florescent
Bulb with GrameenShakti and EnergyPac
Waste Concern
Municipal WasteManagement
GEF Funding
NAPA
Institutional Team
Projects
Experiences
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Climate Change Studies in Bangladesh
1992: Study on Vulnerability to Climate Change by BCAS
with support from USEPA
Effect of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise on
Bangladesh By Dr. Fasiuddin Mahtab (1989) Sponsored by
Commonwealth Institute
The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change: An
Assessment of the Effects on Bangladesh By Bangladesh
Unnayan Parishad, CEARS New Zealand and Climate
Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, UK, 1993
Country Study on Bangladesh under Regional Study of
Global Environmental Issues Project (Asian Development
Bank TA No. 5463) on the Impact of Climate Change inBangladesh, the Available Options for Adaptation and
Mitigation Measure and Response Strategies, 1994 By
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS),
Dhaka, Bangladesh.
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Climate Change Studies in Bangladesh
Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Climate Change and Sea Level RiseBy Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) /Resource
Analysis (RA) /Approtech Ltd., 1994 with support from TheNetherlands Government.
Climate Change Country Study Bangladesh under U. S. ClimateChange Study Programme By Bangladesh Centre for AdvancedStudies (BCAS)/BIDS/BUP, 1996 with support from USGovernment.
Reconnaissance Study on the Use of Ozone Depleting Substances(ODS) in Bangladesh By Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies(BCAS), 1993
Update of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) in Bangladesh ByBangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), 1996
Asian Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)
by BCAS, BIDS, BUET and BUP, 1998 with support from AsianDevelopment Bank.
Initial National Communication to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Formulation of Bangladesh Adaptation Programme of Action for
Adaptation to Climate Change (NAPA)
TEMPERATURE CONDITION OF BANGLADESH IN 2030 & 2075
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INTERNATIONALBOUNDARY
COASTALBOUNDARY
Temperature in 1990 C
Dhaka Chittagong Sylhet Rajshahi Khulna
January 18.40 19.90 16.90 18.30 20.40
July 28.50 27.70 28.50 29.00 28.60December 19.40 20.50 18.40 19.30 20.90
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January July December
1990
2030
2075
Temperature in 2030 C
Dhaka Chittagong Sylhet Rajshahi Khulna
January 18.40 19.90 16.90 18.30 20.40July 28.50 27.70 28.50 29.00 28.60
December 19.40 20.50 18.40 19.30 20.90
Temperature in 2075 C
Dhaka Chittagong Sylhet Rajshahi Khulna
January 19.53 19.90 17.89 20.28 21.25
July 30.06 29.40 30.20 30.70 30.16December 21.67 22.48 20.67 21.43 22.88
YEAR
MAPS SHOWING EXISTING DROUGHT,
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AND DROUGHT IN THE YEAR 2030 & 2075
EXISTING DROUGHT
DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON)
Very Severe DroughtSevere Drought
Moderate Drought
Less Moderate Drought
Slight Drought
Very Slight to Nil
Severe & Moderate
Moderate & Less Moderate
Sunderbans
Forest
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT
PRONE AREAS IN 2030
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT
PRONE AREAS IN 2075
MAPS SHOWING EXISTING DROUGHT,
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MAPS SHOWING EXISTING DROUGHT,
AND DROUGHT IN THE YEAR 2030 & 2075
EXISTING DROUGHT
DROUGHT CLASSES (KHARIF SEASON)
Very Severe DroughtSevere Drought
Moderate Drought
Less Moderate Drought
Slight Drought
Very Slight to NilSevere & Moderate
Moderate & Less Moderate
Sunderbans
Forest
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT
PRONE AREAS IN 2030
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT
PRONE AREAS IN 2075
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Most Vulnerable Sectors and
Adaptation Options
Vulnerable Sectors
Coastal zone resources
Freshwater resources
Agriculture
Human health
Ecosystem and Biodiversity
Area of Adaptation Physical
Institutional
Social
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Responding toClimate Change
The Basic Concepts:Politics & Negotiations
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Approaches to solutions and actions
Mitigation
Kyoto Protocol (the first limited action)
Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI, Emissions
Trading)
Adaptation
First potential for funding
NAPA (National Action Plan for Adaption)
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Southern Perspectives
Is there a South?
What is a Southern Perspective? There are many, infact
G77+China
NICs (potentially large emitters): China, India, Brazil,Indonesia, South Africa
High per capita emitters: South Korea, Singapore,Malaysia
OPEC
AOSIS: Threatened and extremely vulnerable
LDCs: Poorer and Vulnerable
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Developing Countries
Development Priority
Climate Sensitive Development
Decarbonization of Production/ConsumptionProcesses
Institutional Development & Capacity Building
Agenda Setting
Research
Negotiations
Local and (or versus?) Global Good
E l ti d E t f th
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Evolution and Engagement of the
South
INC (1-11)
Rio Declaration UNFCCC
Berlin Mandate (COP-1)
Kyoto Protocol and Mechanisms
Marrakech Accord: Adaptation
Beyond Kyoto
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North-South Dialogue
1. Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility2. Those who committed MUST ACT
Early Beginning Inadequate No-hurt syndrome
3. KP was an Intra-North Dialogue First CommitmentPeriod
4. Committed Emitters vs. Emerging Emitters5. Kyoto Mechanisms:
Real GHG Reduction Not Transfer of Carbon
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Climate Convention Signed:
But Whose Climate?
Kyoto Protocol agreed:
Who reduces?
E hi l B i f E i
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Ethical Basis for Equity
Two Concepts:
1. All human beings are equal (UN)2. All people must have equal rights to global
commons including the atmosphere and oceans(GFEP Declaration, UNCED)
Per capita entitlement concept Subsistence vs. non-subsistence GHG
(greenhouse gas) emissions (CH4, CO2) Cooking vs. Car mileage Right to Sustainable Development vs.
Responsibility to Sustainable Development At what rate is mass death is genocide?! Slavery, poverty convention!
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Issues and Concerns
Responsibility for Climate Change and Role of North
Is it new for Environmental Colonialism?
Capacity Building Who will pay?
Role of Government
Is it an Unfair Trade: Climate Change is a newdimension
Small Countries: Low Polluters can they benefitfrom Climate Change
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Issues and Concerns
Per capita allocation
Future:
1990 Baseline
Per capita Annex 1 emissions when reached
graduate Is it compatible with global reduction need
Ecological Integrity
Uncertainties
In Science (IPCC) Costing: of Actions, Non-Actions
Beyond Kyoto (Second [+] Commitment Period[s])
Northern and Southern views
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Northern and Southern views
Northern view: the South mustparticipate Southern view:
The North is the cause of climate change (interms of historical emissions)
The North is not doing enough
Kyoto is in trouble US: abandoned its commitments
EU: Slow to react
First inadequate small steps
Science (IPCC) requires rapid reduction
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Government perspective from China
The developed countries should take the lead inchanging the ways of production andconsumption that are inconsistent with
sustainable development, take a more activepart in addressing the global environmentalissues and help the developing countries withconcrete deeds
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Government perspective from China
More transfers of funds and technology shouldbe made to the developing countries toensure their rights to equal development in
the age of economic globalization andpromote capacity building in these countriesPresident of PRC, Jiang Zemin
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Government perspective from Bangladesh
As a natural disaster-prone country, Bangladesh havedeveloped a variety of coping mechanisms at formaland informal levels. This has greatly reduced theloss of life and property from such disasters.
However, in recent yeas, the frequency of extremeclimatic events, such as floods and cyclones haveincreased worldwide. This is causing great havocparticularly to the LDCs.Prime Minister of
Bangladesh, Begum Khaleda Zia
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The South is Acting
China: Energy shift, Energy Efficiency
India: Wind Energy
Bangladesh: Massive Tree Plantation
Brazil: Alcohol Fuel
Kenya, India, Bangladesh: Off-grid Solar PVinitiatives
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Country case studies of the South
Bangladesh: Most Vulnerable
Displacement
Ecosystem Threatened
Threatening Development Food Security
Doing a lot
CDM and Adaptation (NAPA)
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Country case studies of the South
Maldives Threatened
Can do very little
Sovereignty in question
Nepal
Elevated rate of snow melt
Glacial Loss
Ecosystem threatened Social Instability
Sustainable Development Implementation:
Different levels of interactive Management and Decision Making
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Different levels of interactive Management and Decision Making
MEGA
MESO
MICRO
MACRO
Super-Macro
Sub-Mega
SUB-NATIONAL LEVEL
District, Local Government, River Basic
Eco-specific
LOCAL LEVEL
Community, Family,Individuals
NATIONAL LEVEL
National Government,National Civil Society
REGIONAL LEVEL
ADB, ESCAP, APNCSD, APEC, SAARC,Regional Civil Society
GLOBAL LEVEL
UN, UNFCCC, CSD, WTO, WB, IMF,International Civil Society
The Greenhouse Gases and their
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Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4)
CFCs, HCFCs, CCl4, Methyl bromide
Oxides of nitrogen (N2), NOx) Carbon monoxide (CO)
Water vapour
Concepts on GHGs
Total Amount
Concentration
Global Warming Potential
The Greenhouse Gases and their
political significance
Typology of Natural Disaster Likely
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Typology of Natural Disaster Likely
Impact of Climate Change
Floods and inundations Saline Intrusion
Cyclones, Typhoons, Storm Surges, Tornadoes, Hurricanes Droughts Pests/Locusts
Disease: Outbreaks and Vectors
Forest Fires Landslides
Heat Waves/Cold Waves, Temperature Extremes Sea Level Rise Riverbank Erosion
Increase
None
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Key Stressors
Temperature Increase
SLR (Sea Level Rise) Population Shift
Carbon Concentration Increase
Sectors
Extent of Events
Intensity
Frequency
Desertification/Drought
Salt Water/Flood/Inundation
Ecosystem: Extent Food Security - Poverty
A preliminary vulnerability assessment
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A preliminary vulnerability assessment
for agriculture
Identification of the crops, geographical regions,and rural populations most likely to be vulnerable
Description of the vulnerable crops, regions andgroups as well as the reasons for their
vulnerability Analysis of analogous regions (e.g., warmer
regions of the country) under current climateregimes to help identify implications for future
response to climate change
A preliminary vulnerability assessment
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A preliminary vulnerability assessment
for agriculture
Projections of the expected magnitude of theimpacts, expressed qualitatively (e.g.,positive, negative, or no impact on crop yield)
Examination of potential adaptationmeasures, with explicit study of theirexpected effectiveness and costs.
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Challenges ahead
1. Universal participation
2. Low emission/high development paradigm
3. Capacity in the South
4. Science to Action
5. Technology funding
6. Government/Private Sector/NGOs collaboration
7. Kyoto without ratification
8. Building on good practices
Th R liti f Cli t Ch
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The Realities of Climate Change
Emerging Scientific Consensus on Climate Change(IPCC)
Ground Realities:
Increasing Awareness of Communities
Increasing Extreme Weather Events
Experiences of Coping with Climate Variability
How to respond to Climate Change
All developments assumed Climate Change
Agriculture
Infrastructure Ecosystem Management
Precipitation
Responses
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Responses
Global: IPCC Understanding Scienceand Reducing Uncertainty
Climate Convention Inter-government
Block Negotiations Lowest Common Denominator
Big on talks, low on action
Kyoto Protocol: First Small Step
Bogged Down South is compromising
lowering bar
Global risk increasing
R
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Responses
National: Create Awareness Some Actions, More Reports
Institutionalization
Some Integration in Sectors
Private Sector: Early Initiations of CDM
Delay dampen enthusiasms
New Climate Change Marketing
Some feel threatened others look foropportunities
R
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NGOs:Greater Research
Raising Concerns and Awareness
Equity Issues Highlighted
Lower Thrust on Commitment, more on
Technical Options
Increasingly reaching from Environment
to Development
Appreciation of Mitigation and
adaptation
Southern NGOs, mostly left
unsupported
Responses
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Disaster Management
Impact-Adaptation Relationship
=
X X
Intensity of
Event
BaselineConditions AdaptiveCapacity
ImpactEvent