climate change: it is not too late if farmers act now lučka kajfež bogataj university of ljubljana...

CLIMATE CHANGE: IT IS NOT TOO LATE

IF FARMERS ACT NOWLučka Kajfež BogatajUniversity of Ljubljana

Slovenia

WMO/COST 718 ETWCF Meeting Geneva, 15-18 November, 2004

Weather, Climate and Farmers

OBSERVEDCHANGE

Observed Global Temperature Change 1861-2003

Annual surface temperature trends for periods 1901 to 2000, 1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1975, and 1976 to 2000 (°C/decade)

Source: Folland et al. (2001)

More than Global Warming

Summer 2003 in EuropeChanges in Extremes

Tem

per

atu

re c

han

ge

C 1.0

0.5

0

-0.5

Regional temperature change 1900 to 2000

1900

2000 1900 2000

model natural factors

North America

Asia Europe

1900 2000

model natural + human factors

observations

Models are based on physics and not history. Match is because climate must obey the laws of physics. The warming since 1950 is not natural…

Computer models versus observations: finding a human signal

PREDICTIONS

Global Temperature 1000 – 2100 AD (IPCC)

2.0

0.0

6.0

4.0

Cha

nge

(°C

) fr

om 1

961-

90 a

vera

ge

1000 1500 2000

Observations (proxy data)

Observations (instrumental)

Projections

A1

B1

A2

B2

Economic

Environmental

Global Regional

Population

Econ

omy

Tech

nolo

gy

Energy

(Land-use)

Agriculture

D r i v i n g F o r c e s

The SRES driving forces and storylines

Nakicenovic et al. (2000)

IPCC Data Distribution Centrehttp://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk

Provides climate and related data, impact and adaptation assessment

with emphasis on the needs of developing countries

- climate model projections and observed climate data- socio-economic baseline and scenario data- other environmental information (atm. composition, sea level)- supporting documentation and guidance material

http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/asres/scatter_plots/scatterplots_home.html

Hard copies available

South Europe and N Africa (Region 14): 2010-2039

General Circulation Model

Crop

model

spatial

variability

model

uncertainties

output

processing

Climate change

scenario

cropforecastfor futureL

arg

e ar

ea m

od

el

Regional climate model

H O M E C D M G H G d a t a T T : C L E A R S I T E M A P | F A Q | T E X T V E R S I O N | C O N T A C T U S | D I S C L A I M E R

S e a r c h :

E s s e n t i a l B a c k g r o u n d D o c u m e n t a t i o n M e e t i n g s C o o p e r a t i o n & S u p p o r t A d a p t a t i o n T e c h n o l o g y N a t i o n a l R e p o r t s M e t h o d s & S c i e n c e L a n d U s e , L a n d - U s e C h a n g e a n d F o r e s t r y I m p a c t s , V u l n e r a b i l i t y & A d a p t a t i o n M i t i g a t i o n E m i s s i o n s f r o m i n t l . T r a n s p o r t ( B u n k e r F u e l s ) R e s e a r c h & S y s t e m a t i c O b s e r v a t i o n O t h e r M e t h o d o l o g i c a l I s s u e s K y o t o M e c h a n i s m s P a r t i e s & O b s e r v e r s P r e s s S e c r e t a r i a t I s s u e s Q u i c k f i n d e r :

P l e a s e c h o o s e

Y o u r l o c a t i o n : H o m e > M e t h o d s & S c i e n c e > I m p a c t s , V u l n e r a b i l i t y & A d a p t a t i o n

M e t h o d o l o g i e s a n d T o o l s t o E v a l u a t e C l i m a t e C h a n g e I m p a c t s a n d A d a p t a t i o n

C o m p e n d i u m o n m e t h o d s a n d t o o l s t o e v a l u a t e i m p a c t s o f , v u l n e r a b i l i t y a n d a d a p t a t i o n t o c l i m a t e c h a n g e . F i n a l d r a f t

4 S e c t o r - S p e c i f i c T o o l s 4 . 1 A g r i c u l t u r e T h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r t o o l s d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s c o m p e n d i u m , l i s t e d i n T a b l e 4 . 1 , r a n g e f r o m s e c t o r - w i d e e c o n o m i c a n a l y s e s t o f a r m - l e v e l c r o p m o d e l s . T h e c r o p p r o c e s s m o d e l s a d d r e s s t h e i m p a c t o f v a r i o u s m a n a g e m e n t a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e s c e n a r i o s o n s i n g l e c r o p s ( e . g . , W O F O S T , I C A S A , A L F A L F A , O R Y Z A ) , m u l t i p l e c r o p s ( e . g . , A P S I M ) , a n d e n t i r e e c o s y s t e m s ( e . g . , C E N T U R Y ) . O t h e r t o o l s c a n b e u s e d t o e x a m i n e p a r t i c u l a r e c o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s o r p r o c e s s e s ( e . g . , A C R U ) o r s u p p o r t b i g g e r p i c t u r e s t r a t e g i c a d a p t a t i o n d e c i s i o n s ( e . g . , M A A C V , R R I ) . T h e e c o n o m i c m o d e l s ( e . g . , R i c a r d i a n a n a l y s i s a n d i n p u t - o u t p u t a c c o u n t i n g ) a s s i s t t h e u s e r i n e v a l u a t i n g t h e e c o n o m i c i m p a c t s o f c h a n g i n g l a n d v a l u e s , s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d , a n d c o m m o d i t y p r o d u c t i o n r e s u l t i n g f r o m c l i m a t e c h a n g e . T h e r e a r e s u b s t a n t i a l l y m o r e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r t o o l s t h a n t h e r e a r e t o o l s i n o t h e r s e c t o r s . T h i s i s b e c a u s e m a n y a g r i c u l t u r a l m o d e l s a r e c r o p s p e c i f i c o r a r e a p p l i c a b l e o n l y t o p a r t i c u l a r r e g i o n s , w h e r e a s m o d e l s i n o t h e r s e c t o r s t e n d t o b e m o r e g e n e r a l l y a p p l i c a b l e .

T a b l e 4 . 1 . T o o l s c o v e r e d i n a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r 4 . 1 A g r i c u l t u r e S e c t o r T o o l s

A P S I M ( A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c t i o n S y s t e m s s I M u l a t o r ) ( 1 5 2 k B )

W O F O S T ( 1 3 5 k B )

A C R U ( A g r i c u l t u r a l C a t c h m e n t s R e s e a r c h U n i t ) ( 1 6 6 k B )

P r o c e s s S o i l a n d C r o p M o d e l s : C E N T U R Y ( 1 6 4 k B )

O R Y Z A 2 0 0 0 ( 1 5 4 k B )

I n f o r m a t i o n a n d D e c i s i o n S u p p o r t S y s t e m f o r C l i m a t e C h a n g e S t u d i e s i n S o u t h E a s t S o u t h A m e r i c a ( I D S S - S E S A C l i m a t e C h a n g e ) ( 1 6 9 k B )

D e c i s i o n S u p p o r t S y s t e m s L i n k i n g A g r o - C l i m a t i c I n d i c e s w i t h G C M - O r i g i n a t e d C l i m a t e C h a n g e S c e n a r i o s ( 1 7 8 k B )

M o d e l o f A g r i c u l t u r a l A d a p t a t i o n t o C l i m a t i c V a r i a t i o n ( M A A C V ) ( 1 3 9 k B )

R e l a t i v e R i s k I n d e x ( R R I ) ( 1 0 9 k B )

G o v e r n m e n t S u p p o r t i n A g r i c u l t u r e f o r L o s s e s d u e t o C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y ( 1 1 7 k B )

P r o c e s s C r o p M o d e l s : I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n s o r t i u m f o r A p p l i c a t i o n o f S y s t e m s A p p r o a c h e s t o A g r i c u l t u r e ( I C A S A ) — I n t e r n a t i o n a l B e n c h m a r k S i t e s N e t w o r k f o r A g r o t e c h n o l o g y T r a n s f e r ( I B S N A T ) F a m i l y o f M o d e l s ( 1 5 5 k B )

P r o c e s s C r o p M o d e l s : G e n e r a l - P u r p o s e A t m o s p h e r i c P l a n t S o i l S i m u l a t o r ( G A P S 3 . 1 ) ( 1 4 7 k B )

P r o c e s s C r o p M o d e l s : E r o s i o n P r o d u c t i v i t y I m p a c t C a l c u l a t o r ( E P I C ) ( 1 5 2 k B )

I r r i g a t i o n M o d e l : C R O P W A T ( 1 3 2 k B )

P r o c e s s C r o p M o d e l s : A l f a l f a 1 . 4 ( 1 2 5 k B )

P r o c e s s C r o p M o d e l s : A F R C - W h e a t ( 1 5 1 k B )

P r o c e s s C r o p M o d e l s : R I C E M O D ( 1 3 3 k B )

P r o c e s s C r o p M o d e l s : G O S S Y M / C O M A X ( 1 3 4 k B )

P r o c e s s C r o p M o d e l s : G L Y C I M ( 1 3 4 k B )

E c o n o m i c M o d e l s : E c o n o m e t r i c ( R i c a r d i a n - b a s e d ) M o d e l s ( 1 4 9 k B )

E c o n o m i c M o d e l s : I n p u t - O u t p u t M o d e l i n g ( w i t h I M P L A N ) ( 1 6 5 k B )

http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vulnerability_and_adaptation/items/570.php

Changes in rainfall with doubled CO2 (CSIRO model)

>25.6

Daily rainfall class (mm day–1)

0.2-0.4 0.4-0.8 0.8-1.6 1.6-3.2 3.2-6.4 6.4-12.8 12.8-25.6

160

140

120

80

60

40

20

0

–20

100

Change infrequency

(%)

40°N 40°S

UNCERTAINTY

Cascade of uncertainty

• CO2 concentration• Global-mean sea level• Global-mean temperature• Regional temperatures• Regional temperature extremes• Regional precipitation• Cloud cover• Climatic variability / extremes

High confidence

Low confidence

Cascade of Uncertainty in Assessment of Impacts

IMPACTS

The climate change affects on agriculture

• Productivity (quantity and quality)

• Agricultural practices (changes of water use, agricultural inputs -herbicides, insecticides, fertilizers)

• Environmental level (frequency and intensity of soil drainage -nitrogen leaching, soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity)

• Rural space (loss of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, hydraulic amenities)

Several changing parameters impact agriculture

• a direct effect is the composition of the earth atmosphere :CO2 and ozone (CH4, NO2 and CFC to have no impact on physiological processus).

• some indirect effects are climate parameters resulting from climate change : temperature, insolation, rainfall, humidity

• other indirect effects are the side effects due to the climatic changes : increase of the sea level, changes in ocean currents, tornadoes..

Additional People at Risk of Hunger under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios,(Parry, et al. in Global Environmental Change, 2004)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2020 2050 2080

Add

ition

al M

illio

ns o

f P

eopl

e

A2 - Regional Enterprise B2 - Local Stewardship

Key impacts on wheat yields for different regions%

Yie

ld +

0

- N. India

S. Europe

N. England

Local food production ?

Regional food security ?

Global food security ?

0.5 1.0 Deg C

Coastal vulnerability

Poorer nutrition and health infrastructure

Economic structure

Closer to margin of tolerance

Why farmers in developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change

1) Impacts are worse

2) Lower capacity to adapt

Availability of technology

Institutional capacity

Know-how and education

Financial capacity

http://www.agr.state.il.us/kidspage/onfarm.html

Climate Sensitivity Functions of the US and India Mendelsohn and Dinar (2000)

0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.2

-1.4

-1.60 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

US Response Function

India Response Function

Temperature Change, oC

Impa

ct o

n F

arm

Val

ue/N

et

Inco

me

(bil

lion

s of

US

$)

MITIGATION1. no uncertainty on the need to stabilize GHG

concentration in atmosphere

2. need to initiate mitigation urgently

Agriculture has many unique opportunities to manage greenhouse gases

ReduceGreenhouse gas

emissions

Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-

based energy, chemicals and materials

ReplaceAtmospheric C to store

in soils and perennial crops

Remove

Opportunities for mitigationin agriculture

• Carbon sequestration (possibly increasing N2O)

– Land management (tillage, irrigation management, fertilizer management, cover crops, eliminating fallow)

– Land use change to grassland, forest

• Emission reduction: CO2, N2O, methane– Energy emissions (direct, induced energy use)

– Livestock: enteric fermentation, manure management

– Bio-energy products, renewables (reduces energy CO2 emissions)

GHG Mitigation Potential from Agriculture

Sink Enhancing Management Practices• Increase no-till

• Decrease summerfallow

• Increase hay in crop rotation

• Improve grazing management

• Increase permanent cover

• Increase shelterbelts

GHG Source-Reducing Management Practices• Improve nutrient

management

• Improve feeding management

• Improve manure management

Sink Enhancing Management Practices• Increase no-till

• Decrease summerfallow

• Increase hay in crop rotation

• Improve grazing management

• Increase permanent cover

• Increase shelterbelts

GHG Source-Reducing Management Practices• Improve nutrient

management

• Improve feeding management

• Improve manure management

TimeTime

Change in Soil Carbon (Sinks)Change in Soil Carbon (Sinks)

Old management New management

Org

anic

C

TimeTime

Change in Soil Carbon (Sinks)Change in Soil Carbon (Sinks)

Old managementOld management New managementNew management

Org

anic

C

REDUCE, REMOVE, REPLACE + RESPOND

ReduceGreenhouse gas

emissions

AgriculturalGHG

Management

Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-

based energy, chemicals and materials

ReplaceAtmospheric C to store in soils and perennial

crops

Remove

The climate is goingto change requiring

adaptation

Respond

ADAPTATION‘adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in response

to actual or expected climate stimuli and their impacts … ...to moderate damages or to

benefit from opportunities associated with climate change’

Concept of adaptation in agriculture

Adaptation refers to responses by •individuals, •groups and

•governments to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects• to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or damage potential,

•or to realize opportunities

associated with climate change (Dolan et al., 2001).

Responses should be beneficial regardless of how or whether climate changes

Adaptation Options • Possible at various levels - farmer, economic agent, macro• Potential and costs of adaptation - possibly through historic

analysis of technology penetration• Reilly and Schimmelpfenng (1999) show the relative speed of

adoption of various measures:

Adaptation Measure Adjustment Time (years)Variety Adoption 3-14Dams and Irrigation 50-100Variety Development 8-15Tillage Systems 10-12Opening New Lands 3-10Irrigation Equipment 20-25Fertilizer Adoption 10

Relative Inertia in Adaptation

Adaptation CostNo changeChange mix of crops already grown *Change crops grown **Change machinery owned **Change labour mix **Change crop storage capacity ***Change animal housing capacity ***Add irrigation capacity ****Change enterprise *****

Climate adaptation should be iterative

Adaptation options (+technique needs) Development and adoption of new technologies Promotion of agriculture extension services Improving water management Improving farm management Diversification of income earning and

employment opportunities Institutional planning and implementation Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive

capacity including investment and accumulation of capital.

Development and adoption of new technologies

• Mechanical innovations - irrigation - conservation tillage - integrated drainage systems

• Crop breeding (“climate” resistant varieties) - improved resistance to changing diseases and insects - heat and drought resistant crop varieties - use of traditional varieties bred for storm and drought resistance - investment in seed banks

• Biotechnology

Biotechnology:Splicing in a gene to raise the max T of photosynthesis (tobacco with gene from Arabidosis thaliana)

Genetically modified

Promotion of agriculture extension services key role in promoting agriculture productivity in

developing countries

Improving water management • better water distribution strategies • changing crop and irrigation schedules to use rainfall more effectively • improving irrigation technologies• water recycling and the conjunctive use of groundwater• water price

Improving farm management• changing farm production practices • diversification of crop and livestock varieties • replacement of plant types, cultivars and animal breeds

with climate resistant new varieties • altering the intensity of fertilizer, pesticide application• modernization and improving farm level managerial

capacity: altering capital and labor inputs to reduce risks

Diversification of income earning and employment opportunities

• alternative livelihood options need to be encouraged• income diversification • off farm activities (trading home produced goods,

providing services)

• Institutional reforms (to achive decision-making structures that support long term planning and enhance adaptations to both short and long term climate impacts)

• The governments need to reverse declining investments in agricultural research and extension

• Improved training and general education of populations dependent on agriculture

Institutional planning and implementation

Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive capacity, including investment and accumulation of capital

• The adjustment of capital (and labor) inputs can

help farmers to make the necessary adaptations

• Removal of subsidies, which can, by limiting changes

in prices, mask the climate change signal in the marketplace

• Food programs and other social security programs

to provide insurance against supply changes

What do we know about the connections between mitigation, adaptation and impacts ?

No action

Allmitigation

All adaptation

Mix ofmitigate/ adapt/

impact

Cost ofadaptation

less more

Cost of

mitigation

less

more

Cos

t of

impa

cts

less

mor

e

(Holdridge diagram)

Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change

CONCLUSIONSAgrometeorologist should help farmers make transition

from “passive acceptance” of climate change by equipping them to make an “active response”

Both agrometeorologists and farmers should realize as soon as possible that

• The past may not longer be a good guide

for the future.• Adaptation cannot be a substitute

mitigation

climate change: it is not too late if farmers act now lučka kajfež bogataj university of ljubljana...

Documents

uncertainty slide

40n40s slide

adap slide

observed change slide

assessment of impacts

human signal slide

guidance material slide

global temperature change