Risks in future water use, energy development and environment in the western Balkan region due to climate

change

Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia

Temperatura zraka na Kredarici statistično značilno narašča

CO2 CH4 N2O concentrations in the atmosphere are still rising…

Summer temperature in Europe

Barriopedro et al., 2011

EEA www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/

Main drought events in Europe, 2000–2009

+ 2012

Recurrence of flood events in Europe

(EEA, 2011)

ENVSEC, 2012

ENVSEC, 2012

3 classes of water problems in Balkan

• too little water

• too much water

• water pollution

Can (and will) be exacerbated by climate change

Business class

Over the edge

Creative societies

Shared responsabilities

Markets first

Tribal society

Security first

Battlefield

Cybertopia

‘Clash of civilizations’

Barbarization

Prism

Just do it

Ecologically driven

Regional stewardship

Global sustainability

Local stewardship

Provincial enterprise

‘The end of history’

‘No Logo’

‘Our Common Future ‘

B2

A1 B1

A2

Hyper individualism

Changing courseNew global age

Have & have- nots

The hundred flowers

Sustainability first

Policy first

Great transitions

Turbulent neighbourhoods

Cultural pluralism

Voluntary simplicity

Market World

Transformed World

Fortress World

New Empires

Change without progress

EEA, 2011

ENVSEC, 2012

Source: Knutti & Sedlacek (2012)

Environmental State and Pressures

Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using IMAGE model suite

CO2 concentrations

3 - 6°C by 2100

450 ppm

Europe: Geographic ChangesEurope: Geographic Changes

+10

-1

+50%

-50%

2080-20992080-2099 Minus Minus 1980-19991980-1999 (A1B)(A1B)

Risks in key sectorsWater: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand

Agriculture: Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand

Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums

Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro)

WaterFood

EnergyInfrastructuretransport

Urban space

Land use

Governance

Climate change

JRC DG Regio‘s 2020 „THE CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGE FOR EUROPEAN REGIONS“

Adaptive capacity “the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and changes“ (IPCC 2007)

• Awareness• Technology and

infrastructure• Economic resources • Institutions

Vulnerability to climate change “ is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity” (IPCC 2007).

• Countries which expect a high increase in impact seem to be less able to adapt•Climate change would trigger a deepening of the existing socio-economic imbalances between the core of Europe and its periphery.

Future runs counter to territorial cohesion ?

Magnitude of dependence on hydropower Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008

Relative change of average (1961-90) total discharge volumes calculated with WaterGAP 2.1 for the

2020s

Relative change of average (1961-90) total discharge volumes calculated with WaterGAP 2.1 for the

2070s

Climate change effects on hydroelectric production potential

Pumped storage hydropower

Reservoir hydropower

Run-of-river hydropower

Framework of climate change effects on different characteristics of hydropower schemes

Discharge, temporal variability, and glacial melt do not apply to pure pumped storage, which is not connected to a river network. Only evaporation is applicable to reservoir surface area to volume ratio (SA:Vol).

BALKAN areas: impacts of climate change

– Decrease of runoff (reduction of hydropower production)

– Increase of (catastrophic) drought periods

• Critical situation for run of river HPP production• Importance of the storage capacity will rise

(multipurpose use!)• Restrictions for the operation of thermal power

plants because of a lack of cooling water or the water temperature is to high

• High electricity demand because of air conditioning

Impacts on the hydropower generationThe effects of the climate change scenarios on the water regime in Europe are:•very uncertain•locally different

►Still difficult to have clear strategies

In alpine and mountain areas (most scenarios show) •decrease of summer runoff, increase of winter runoff•decrease of the snowpack, glaciers• increase of extreme events (floods and droughts)

► Importance of the storage capacity will rise• Flood protection by storage HPP on a local scale• Positive influence on the run-off during drought periods• New rules regarding dam safety (new hydrological methods)• Sediment problems will increase (permafrost level in alpine areas)

Conclusions

• Climate change is a serious issue for the whole electricity industry

• Hydropower is still the most important renewable energy source in Europe and the role of renewable energy sources will further increase

• Hydropower operators must have a strong focus on climate change and have to learn to deal with uncertainty

• At this point in time, the impacts are not sufficiently quantified in Balkan region and adaptation and mitigation strategies not in place

• CO2 avoidance by Hydropower

• 1 GWh from Hydropower corresponds to approximately 220 tonns oil

• 1 GWh from Hydropower corresponds to approximately 330 tonns hard coal

Conclusions

• South East Europe faces formidable climate change challenges.

• At this point in time, the impacts are not sufficiently quantified in SEE region and adaptation and mitigation strategies not in place.

Proportion of severe water stress EU river basins likely to increase from 19% today to 35% by 2070.

Areas affected by droughts will increase.

Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC , 2011)

• There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration.

• This applies to regions including southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, NE Brazil, and S Africa.

The net change in territorial emissions (1990–2008) together with the change in the net emission transfer between each country and non-Annex B countries.

The red stars represent pledged emission reduction commitments in the Kyoto Protocol.

Europe (EU27 + Croatia, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland.Peters et al., 2011