climate change and flooding in wisconsin ken potter department of civil & environmental...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin
Ken PotterDepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering
University of WisconsinMadison, WI
2011 WAFSCM Annual ConferenceNovember 3, 2011 - Pewaukee
![Page 2: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Global Circulation (Climate) Models (GCMs)
• WICCI findings based on statistical downscaling of GCMs
• New findings based on Regional Circulation (Climate) Models (RCMs)
• NOAA Atlas 14
• Storm transposition for vulnerability assessment
![Page 3: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
General Circulation Models
IPCC 2007
General Circulation Models (GCMs)simulate the effects of incoming and outgoing thermal radiation on global circulation, and include:
Atmosphere
Clouds
Oceans
Topography
Rainfall
etc.
![Page 4: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Dynamical Downscaling(Regional Circulation Models, RCMs)
Statistical Downscalingof GCM output
6 RCMs drivenby 4 GCMs
North Americandomain
Modern: 1970-2000Future: 2038-2070
3-hourly output,Many variables
(T, P, H, SM, etc.)50 km horizontal
resolution
20 GCMsWisconsin
domainModern: 1950-2000Future: 2001-2100
Daily output,Fewer variables
(T, P, H?)
10 km horizontalresolution
Climate Model Projections
![Page 5: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant to climate impacts in Wisconsin
Wisconsin Initiative for Climate Change Impacts• Used 14 General Circulation Models (GCM’s) from IPCC 2007 assessment
• Debiased and downscaled using historical Wisconsin weather station data
• Result: a statistical range of potential climate change
GCM grid Downscaled (8x8 km) grid
D. Vimont, UW-Madison
![Page 6: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Temperature (°F)
Significant warming is projected
Change in average annual temp 1980 to 2055
![Page 7: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
PrecipitationChange in annual average
1980 to 2055 (inches)
1.25” to 2.25” and 2-3 days/decade = modest future increase
Increase in 2” rainfalls 1980 to 2055 (days/decade)
![Page 8: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Winter Precipitation1980 to 2055
Precipitation as snow reduced by 20% by mid-century
= 30% decrease in midwinter snow depth
Notaro et al. 2010
Reduced Snowfall (%)Increasing (water inches)
![Page 9: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Increased Winter Rainfall
Potter and Liebl, 2010
![Page 10: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
More rain in winter
+More intense rainfall
= More high water events?
= More groundwater recharge?
Gordy Stephenson
Cottle
Vulnerability is already high during winter and spring
DNR
Increased Winter-Spring Flooding?
![Page 11: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Based on statistically downscaled data developed by Kucharik, Lorenz, Notaro, and Vimont, UW Madison.
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
92
4-h
ou
r R
ain
fall
De
pth
(in
)
1961- 2000 2046 - 2065 2081 - 2100
2-Year Recurrence Interval
100-Year Recurrence Interval
Quantile Projections: Madison
![Page 12: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Large Uncertainty in Rainfall Projections
Which 100-year event do you prefer ?
6”or 9”
Projected size of 100-year 24-hour storm for Madison, WI, based on 14 GCMs
Schuster, et al
? Wetter or drier in summer ?
![Page 13: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
What about Regional Circulation Models (RCMs)?
• Recently developed by North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)
• 6 RCMs driven by 4 GCMs
• North American domain
• 1970-99; 2040-69
• 3-hourly output
• 50 km resolution
![Page 14: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
RCM 100-Year, 24-Hour Rainfalls for Madison
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
De
pth
inc
he
s
Observed
1970-1999 2040-2069
![Page 15: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
RCM 100-Year, 24-Hour Rainfalls for Green Bay
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
De
pth
inc
he
s
Observed
1970-1999 2040-2069
![Page 16: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
RCM 100-Year, 24-Hour Rainfalls for Milwaukee
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Dep
thin
ches
Observed
1970-1999 2040-2069
![Page 17: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Quantile-Quantile Plots for Top 100 Daily RCM Rainfalls: Madison
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 1 2 3 4 5
HRM3_hadcm3
Mo
del
ed R
ain
fall
(in
ches
)
Historical Rainfall(inches)
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6
CCRM_ccsm
Mo
del
led
Rai
nfa
ll(i
mch
es)
Historical Rainfall(inches)
![Page 18: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Quantile-Quantile Plots forTop 100 Daily Rainfalls: Green Bay
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 1 2 3 4 5
CRCM_ccsm
Mo
del
ed R
ain
fall
(in
ches
)
Historical Rainfall(inches)
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6
HRM3_hadcm3
Mo
del
ed R
ain
fall
(in
ches
)
Historical(inches)
![Page 19: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Quantile-Quantile Plots forTop 100 Daily Rainfalls: Milwaukee
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
HRM3_hadcm3
Mo
del
ed R
ain
fall
(in
ches
)
Historical Rainfall(inches)
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 1 2 3 4 5
CRCM_ccsm
Mo
del
ed R
ain
fall
(in
ches
)
Historical Rainfall(inches)
![Page 20: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Quantile-Quantile Plot forTop 100 Daily Rainfalls: Milwaukee
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
RCM3_gfdl
Mo
del
ed R
ain
fall
(in
ches
)
Historical Rainfall(inches)
![Page 21: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
What do others think about precipitation modeling?
Science Magazine, October 2011:
When the Seattle Public Utility asked University of Washington climate scientist
Clifford Mass how big they should build the pipes in a $750M storm drainage system, he
“couldn’t give them an answer.”
![Page 22: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
And a University of Wisconsin professor…
In the same Science article, University of Wisconsin Professor Greg Tripoli points out that global circulation models can’t
“create the medium-size weather systems that they should be sending into any embedded regional model.”
![Page 23: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
So what should we do about engineering design?
![Page 24: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
The record we use may actually reflect a drier period (TP40, 1938-1958).
Are we designing for historical climate?
Hydrologic design is based on experience. (i.e. history)
![Page 25: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
NOAA Atlas 14Updating TP-40
Provides data for locations
vs. TP-40 isohyetal maps
South Beloit. IL
More stations
TP-40 vs. NOAA Atlas 14
Record n Years (avg)
Hourly Stations 200 vs. 994 14 vs. 40
Daily Stations 1350 vs. 2846 16 vs. 63
Longer period of record
Revised statistical method
![Page 26: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Davis Todd, et al 2006
NOAA Atlas 14 – Updated Design Storms
Davis Todd, C.E., J.M Harbor, B. Tyner, Increasing Magnitudes and Frequencies of Extreme Precipitation Events Used for Hydraulic Analysis in the Midwest,
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, (61)4:179-184, 2006
![Page 27: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
NOAA Atlas 14 - a work in progressMidwest States - due late 2012
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/current_projects.html
![Page 28: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Storm transposition can be used to asses vulnerability?
The 2008 storm in the Midwest could be used this way.
What else can we do, given GCM uncertainties?
![Page 29: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
“Build upon the experiences of communities that have experienced recent extreme rainfalls to guide a state-wide evaluation of vulnerabilities...” - WICCI Stormwater Working Group
Vulnerability assessment
Assess: • Floodplains and surface flooding• At-risk road-crossings• Stormwater BMPs• Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration• Emergency response capacity• Wells and septic systems• Hazardous materials storage
![Page 30: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Building Long Term Resilience
• Planning for impacts 25 or 50 years out is challenging
• Adaptation to low-risk high-cost events requires political support
• Can use simulations to understand high water impacts
![Page 31: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Conclusions
• Rain event intensities will likely increase in WI due to climate change, but the modeling results do not provide a sufficient basis for engineering design.
• Winter-spring precipitation changes appear to be better supported. Runoff implications need further study.
![Page 32: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Conclusions
• NOAA Atlas 14 should be adopted statewide when available.
• Storm transposition should be explored as a method of evaluating vulnerabilities and increasing resilience.
![Page 33: Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 2011 WAFSCM Annual](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e9d5503460f94b9db73/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Questions?