climate change adaptation 101 dr. lara hansen, chief scientist and executive director, ecoadapt...

Climate Change Adaptation 101

Dr. Lara Hansen, Chief Scientist and Executive Director, EcoAdapt

Approaching Adaptation Jennie Hoffman, EcoAdapt

WHMSI III, Asuncion Paraguay

July 24, 2008

Climate Change Adaptation is:

* A set of methodologies to reduce the vulnerability of species, communities, processes, etc. to climate change

* A new way of thinking about what we do and how we do it

-Consider time as well as space-Change is the only constant

1) Protect Adequate and Appropriate Space as dictated by climate change

2) Limit all Non-climate Stresses that are made worse by or worsen the effects of climate change

3) Use Adaptive Management & start testing strategies now

4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions to limit the amount of stress

New Conservation Paradigm

1) Protect adequate and appropriate space for a changing world:

• Representation– Networks of reserves– Gradients (latitude, elevation)– Diversity of habitats

• Replication

• Protect resistant and resilient communities

• Create/protect refugia

Adequate/appropriate space, cont’d• Protect ecosystem linkages

– Protect entire watersheds– Protect coastal buffer to allow inland

movement

• Design reserves based on features less likely to change

• Protect key ecosystem features– Breeding grounds– Migratory species stopover areas

© WWF-Canon / Jürgen

FREUND

2) Reduce non-climate stresses likely to negatively interact with effects of climate change

Unsustainable Harvest

Pollution & Habitat Degradation

Invasive Species

©WWF-Canon/ Edward PARKER

©WWF/Kjell-Arne LARSSON

Agriculture & Habitat Fragmentation

3) Employ active adaptive management approaches and start testing strategies

© WWF/ Eric Mielbrecht

“integration of design, management, and monitoring to systematically test assumptions in order to adapt and learn” (Salafsky et al., 2002)

**COMBINE RESEARCH AND ACTION: We need to act now, and we need to learn what works

Identify threats

Describe current status

Define goals/targets

Develop action/monitoring

plan

Implement plan, monitor success

Adjust management

as neededCombine research and action: “Fail early and

often”

4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

For some systems resilience building options are scarce and mitigation is needed

• Adaptation: anything that increases a community’s ability to remain intact and functional in the face of climate change

• Resistance: ability to withstand change

• Resilience: ability to recover from change

How do we do adaptation?

1. How vulnerable are the communities, ecosystems, species, social structures, etc. that we care about to climate change? [vulnerability assessment]

2. What can we do to limit or reduce vulnerability/support resistance or resilience? [adaptation planning]

Reducing vulnerability to climate change revolves around two key questions:

Two basic approaches: Top Down and Bottom Up

1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES

Changes in: temperature, precipitation amount and timing, currents, sea level, water chemistry, stratification, etc.

What might change?How much?How soon?

How certain are we?

TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS


2. IDENTIFY IMPACTSWhat ecological effects are likely to result from these changes

(e.g. range changes, timing of seasonal events, species interactions, etc.)?

What cultural, economic, and subsistence effects are likely to result from these changes?

What might change? How much? How soon?How certain are we?



2. IDENTIFY IMPACTS

3. PRIORITIZE VULNERABILITIES

What critical ecological/social/economic/cultural structures and processes are most resilient? Most at risk?


1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES

What variables (ecological/social/economic/cultural) are critical to ecosystem or community function?

What conservation priorities have been identified for the ecoregion?

BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES , SPECIES AND PROCESSES

2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES

How do climatic forces influence these key species, structures, processes, priorities, etc.?





What climatic changes are predicted for the region in question? How will these affect key structures, processes, and priorities?

What will my protected area, farm, etc. look like in 50 years?


How do you use vulnerability assessments to design adaptation strategies?

IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES

IDENTIFY IMPACTS

PRIORITIZE VULNERABILITIES

BUILDING ADAPTATION PLANNING INTO YOUR VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

ADAPTATION OPTION:Protect/restore forests

(forests increase retention of moisture in air & soil,

increase rainfall)

PHYSICAL CHANGE:Increasing dryness





ADAPTATION OPTION:Manage dams to support adequate flow or remove

dams altogether; minimize warming of water by protecting/restoring riverside vegetation

KEY SPECIES:Salmon

CLIMATIC INFLUENCES:River temperature and flow

Climatic Change Likely effects Possible adaptation options

Climatic Change Likely effects Possible adaptation options

Increasing sea level Decreased sea turtle nesting beach habitat

Protect areas inland of beaches to allow natural

shift in location

Altered wind patternsPossible effect on bird migration paths and

energetics

Protect good stopover habitat along migratory routes that may become

more heavily used

Adding in a few complicating factors:

Climate change is not happening in a vacuum


IDENTIFY IMPACTS

IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES

TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS

IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS

What non-climate stressors (e.g. unsustainable land use, conflict over water, wars, etc.) threaten ecosystem or community function in the area of

concern?


IDENTIFY IMPACTS



IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON-

CLIMATE STRESSORS

How will predicted climate changes influence non-climate stressors and vice versa (e.g. increase in drought and demand for fresh

water, increase in heavy rainfall and deforestation, coastal development and sea

level rise)?



IDENTIFY IMPACTS

IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIESHow do interactions between climate and non-climate stressors

affect vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning?


IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE

STRESSORS



IDENTIFY IMPACTS



IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE

STRESSORS


ADAPTATION OPTION:Focus clean-up efforts on target pollutants; change laws to reduce

maximum allowable levels of target pollutants

NON-CLIMATE STRESSOR:Pollution

INTERACTION:Some pollutants are more toxic in warmer

conditions; others increase heat

sensitivity of animals

Broaden your thinking

• Human communities will change their behavior in response to climate change; what does this mean for conservation of migratory species?

• Changes in one biome can affect another

drought

flood food migration

Warm-phase ENSO(El Niño conditions)

More insect and plant food resources for

pre-migrationconditioning (presumably)

Higher late winterrainfall on wintering

ranges in west Mexico

More fledglingsin Pacific Northwest

Birds migrate earlier, arrive in better condition

Effects of ENSO on

neotropical-wintering species

Courtesy of Institute for Bird Populations

**The relationships between El Nino and rainfall in Central America vary spatially; where birds overwinter influences the effect of El Nino on their population

**The effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on seabirds and hole-nesting birds is reversed at higher and lower latitudes

**Climate change and its effects are also likely to vary spatially.

A few examples of adaptation options

Multiple benefits: hurricane-resistance, sustainable agriculture, better habitat

Cover-crops

Terraces

Interplanting

Breeding salt-tolerant bald-cypress trees in south-eastern US

Water quality and bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef

•Bleaching correlates with water quality as well as temperature

•GBRMPA working with national, regional, local governments as well as watershed landowners/land users to improve water quality

Three things to remember about why to do adaptation:

• Climate change is happening right now

• Climate change is an opportunity for creative new thinking

• Failing to include climate change in your work means your work is vulnerable

Three things to remember about how to do adaptation:• Adaptation is not rocket science (but it does

require a thoughtful approach)

• Context matters – Ecological, Political, Sociocultural, Organizational

• YOU are an expert on your region/species– Combine available data and models with your

understanding of how things work where you are

It’s BREAKOUT TIME!

WE provide information, suggestions, feedbackYOU take the lead:

it’s YOUR day it’s your time for strategic DOING

Go home with something useful!

No one can tell you the best solution for your organization, region, sector, or biome.

YOU create the solution!

Extreme rainfall events become more common

Increased sedimentation of reefs, mangroves, sea turtle nests

Increased soil erosion River organisms stressed by extreme currents, turbidity

Sample top-down approach

Predicted Physical Changes:

Ecological Effects:

Human Community Effects:

Loss of crops

Loss of coastal protection

Loss of habitat for commercially or culturally important species (e.g. crabs, fish, shrimp, turtles, manatees)

Loss of coral reef tourism

Mangrove forests

Sample bottom-up approach

Predicted Change:

Climatic influences:

Key structures, processes, etc:

Sediment input: too much can smother trees, too little reduces accretion rate

Submergence time: determines location of trees

Temperature: Min/max temp tolerance

Increasing temp increases evaporation, can increase salinity, stressing trees

For intermediate rates of sea level rise, mangroves shift inland

If sea level rise is slow, soil accretion keeps pace and mangroves stay put

For rapid sea level rise, mangroves drown

climate change adaptation 101 dr. lara hansen, chief scientist and executive director, ecoadapt...

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