Adaptation Workbook Process

Step 1: DEFINE location, project, and management goals.

Key Question: Where are you working? What are your management goals

and objectives for this area?

Step 1: DEFINE location, project, and management goals.

Property or Project Area:

Kulungi dairy farm; Kucera crop lands

Location: Leelanau Peninsula, MI; Des Moines lobe area, IA

Management Unit or Topic Management Goals Management Objectives

Split out any areas with different commodities or uses (optional): Cropland Forest

Broad, general intention of management, such as: Improve farm

production and revenue

Measurable, planned results to achieve goals, such as: Maintain animal health Expand herd from 800 to 150

animals over next 5 years

Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.

Key Question: How might the area be uniquely

affected by climatic change and subsequent impacts?

How might regional impacts be different in the project area?

Resource: Climate Change Assessments

Adaptation Workbook Process

Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.

Regional Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities From regional vulnerability assessments

Mgmt. Unit or Topic

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities

Regional For the Property or Project AreaFrom vulnerability assessments Based on your knowledge of the site

cropland More extreme precipitation events Slope and soil texture on east side of property is vulnerable to flooding

Increased potential for summer drought

Hill tops are especially vulnerable to growing season moisture stress

Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.

Vulnerability Determination

Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.

Example—Kucera FarmRegional Climate Change

Impacts and VulnerabilitiesClimate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities

for the Area of InterestVulnerability

DeterminationWarmer temperatures: Nebraska temperatures have warmed about 1°F since 1895 and are projected to increase another 4‐5°F to 8‐9°F by 2071‐99. Extreme heat days & waves are expected to continue increasing.

Longer/warmer growing seasons: two more weeks by mid‐century

Increased potential for drought: due to higher temperature and increased temp variability

Altered precipitation: Little change in winter/spring; Potential for drier summer

Increased extreme precipitation events

Warmer temperatures: Big impact in 2012. Warmer temps and reduced soil moisture killed cover crop; reduced yields.

Cropland is most affected by changes in precipitation: drought

extreme precipitation events

The Kucera property is less vulnerable to both drought and runoff than the local average because of the no‐till system and work done to date to improve soil quality and infiltration and reduce evaporation

Crops are each affected differently based on their biology—influenced by annual rainfall patterns

Short term: L owAnnual eathervariability has big influence, but ability to cope with some change

Long term: HigherProjections point to warm temps, lower soil moisture, and increased variability; geology doesn’t really support irrigation

Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

Key Question: What management challenges or

opportunities might occur? Can current management meet

management goals? Do goals need to change?

Management Unit or Topic – From Step 1Management Objectives – From Step 1

Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

Challenges to Meeting Management Objective with Climate Change – Things that will make it harder to achieve the management objective due to climate change.

**Focus on on-farm challenges (not global markets, changes to insurance programs, etc.)

Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

Opportunities to Meeting Management Objective with Climate Change – Things that will make it easier to achieve the management objective due to climate change.

**Focus on on-farm challenges (not global markets, changes to insurance programs, etc.)

Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

Feasibility – Can you meet your management objectives using current (busineass-as-usual) management actions?High: We can do it!

Opportunities > Challenges Low: We’ll need more resources or effort.

Challenges > Opportunities

Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

Other Considerations – Social, financial, or other factors that also affect your ability to meet objectives.

Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

Slow down!

Are you going to continue with these

management objectives?

Example – Kucera Farm

Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

Management Objective

(from Step #1)

Challenges to Meeting Objective with Climate

Change Opportunities for Meeting

Objective with Climate Change

Feasibility under Current Management

Maintain or increase crop yields

Increasing variability of rainfall: probably too little or at the wrong time

Very extreme rainfall could cause crop damage

Increases in pests and diseases

This system allows site to take advantage of heavier rainfall, could increase recharge (as long as not too great)

Utilize high carbon‐nitrogen ratio cover crops following wheat harvest to increase the amount of residue cover during hot dry summer months

High

Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.

Key Question: What actions can enhance the ability

of the project area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet management goals?

Resource: Adaptation Strategies & Approaches

Resource: Climate Change Assessments

Adaptation Workbook Process

Approach – Select from the menu. Pick any that seem to make sense and help address the challenges.

Tactic – Describe a specific action you can take.

These details should ideally answer what, where, and how you will implement the actions.

Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.

Approaches Tactics

Timeframe – Specify when you will implement the tactic.

For example: • Summer 2016• Winter 2016-7• Within 3 years of…• After…

Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.

Benefits – Describe why the tactic is good.

For example: • addresses biggest or multiple challenges• is cheap and easy• has co-benefits• is likely to succeed

Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.

Drawbacks and Barriers – Describe why it’s not so good.

For example: • it may have negative side effects, • Requires high cost or effort• may not be successful• has social, financial, or other barriers

Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.

Practicability – Is it both effective (will meet desired intent) and feasible (capable of being implemented)?

• High: Yes to both!

• Moderate: Yeah, but it will take some additional effort or planning…

• Low: No, the barriers/drawbacks seem too big or the benefits too small.

Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.

Recommend Tactic– Given all this, is this tactic likely to be helpful?

Also consider: trade-offs, urgency, likelihood of success, cost, and effort…

Yes: look to integrate into plan, prescription, or other activities

No: not useful at this time

Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.

Example – Kucera Farm

Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.

Adaptation Approach(es)

(from list) TacticTime

Frames Benefits Drawbacks & BarriersPracticability

of TacticRecommend

Tactic?

Maintain and restore soil health.

Use legume cover crops after wheat in years that are projected to have wetter conditions to retain soil moisture

Any Provides ground cover and forage for grazing animals Improves soil

food web Can provide

nitrogen Increase SOM Improves soil

properties

Getting sufficient soil water for germination

Can draw water from subsequent crops

More cost Curl mites and green

bridge for wheat‐streak mosaic disease might get worse

Moderate‐High

Yes

Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.

Key Question: How do we know if the selected

actions were effective? What can we learn from these

actions to inform future management?

Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.

Adaptation Monitoring Variable – What you will measure

Criteria for Evaluation – a value or threshold that is meaningful for assessing effectiveness or informing future decisions

Monitoring Implementation– How you will gather the information

Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.

Example – Kucera Farm

Monitoring Item Criteria for Evaluation Monitoring ImplementationCrop productivity (bushels per acre per year)

Similar or better yields over a 10‐year period

Continue current record‐keeping

Runoff after heavy storms, such as the degree of erosion or runoff after a 2‐inch or higher precipitation event

Times erosion or runoff is observed per season

Severity or extent of erosion and runoff in a specific location that tends to be especially susceptible

Gully or ephemeral gully erosion noted.

Need to record