classical geopolitics iii: the cold war - colorado.edu · critical views i: context. causality....
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Critical Views I: Context. Causality. Continuity.
Who caused the Cold War?1) Orthodox School: USSR2) Revisionist School: USA3) Post-Revisionist School: USA + USSR4) World-Systems School: unequal exchange
Critical Views II: “Cold” War?
Five Phases of the Cold War
1) First Cold War (‘47-’53)
2) Oscillatory Antagonism (‘53-’67)
3) First Détente (‘67-’79)
4) Second Cold War (‘80-’86)
5) Second Détente (‘86-’89)
Containment II: Kennan
Kennan’s Policy Prescriptions
1) Reduce Soviet capacity to project external influence
2) Encourage self-confidence against USSR expansion
3) Don’t fuel Soviet paranoia via antagonism
4) Alter USSR’s worldview from confrontation to negotiation
5) Diplomatic: Restore European balance of power
6) Economic: Rebuild war-torn economies (Europe/Japan)
7) Dynamic: Selective containment (W. Europe/E.Asia/Mid-East)
8) Divide international communism
9) Use local troops
10) Not monolithic strategy; adapt to local context
Containment III: Global Threats
Strategic Soviet Objectives According to NSC (1950)1) Secure Communist regime and USSR2) Maintain E.Europe + China in Soviet Bloc3) Eliminate American influence from Eurasia; isolate USA4) Expand Communist power throughout Russia5) Eliminate USA as competing power6) Spread Communism worldwide as “fanatical faith”
Containment IV: FormalCodes
American Geopolitical Codes
1) Truman Doctrine (‘47-’49): -Kennan’s regional containment
2) NSC-68 (‘50-’53):-Globalist containment
3) Eisenhower-Dulles (‘53-’60):-”New Look”
4) Kennedy-Johnson (‘61-’66):-”Flexible Response”
5) Nixon-Ford-Carter (‘69-’79):-Détente
6) Reagan Cold War II (‘80-’87):-”Rollback”
(a) Kennan vs. (b) NSC-681) Geopolitical Strategy
a) Deny USSR key areasb) Do not give an inch
2) USSR as threata) Only if balance upsetb) Constant threat
3) How to fight Communisma) Economicb) military
4) USA capabilitiesa) Limitedb) Unlimited
5) Role of diplomacya) importantb) not important
6) Role of strength perceptionsa) Not importantb) important
7) Goals of US policy vs. USSRa) Act to maintain equilibriumb) ‘frustrate Kremlin design’
8) Local vs American troopsa) locals w/US supportb) commit Americas
Popular Discourses II: Reagan, Roll-back, + Realism
Central Arguments in Reagan’s Geopolitical Analysis1) Form all-oceans alliance vs. USSR; focus on seapower via chokepoints2) Ally with regionally strong states (South Africa; Brazil)3) Soviet threat is geostrategic + ideological4) Power: objective (population; economy; military)5) Power: subjective (national strategy; national will)
Popular Discourses III: “chokepoints”
1) Cape Horn
2) Panama Canal
3) Cape of Good Hope
4) Suez Canal
5) GIUK Gap
6) English Channel
7) Baltic Straits
8) Strait of Gibraltar
9) Bosporus/Dardanelles
10) Bab El Mandeb
11) Strait of Hormuz
12) Malaccan Straits
Competing Explanations I: shatterbelt regions (Cohen)
1) Complex ethnic/cultural mosaic2) Location of global resource (oil)3) History of local conflicts4) Attracts interests of world powers5) Global-local alliances via regions/realms/gateways6) Potential for major extra-regional conflict