3/15/2016

TO:

FROM:

DATE:

City of San Juan Capistrano Agenda Memorandum

Honorable Mayor and Members of the City Council

Council Member Allevato

March 15, 2016

SUBJECT: Discuss Memorandum Provided by LSA Associates, Inc. Regarding the 2002 Strategic Transportation Plan Prepared for the City of San Juan Capistrano Pertaining to the Ortega Highway Widening Improvement Project

RECOMMENDATION:

Discuss the February 24, 2016, Memorandum from LSA Associates, Inc., regarding the 2002 Strategic Transportation Plan prepared for the City of San Juan Capistrano pertaining to the Ortega Highway Widening Improvement Project.

SITUATION:

Les Card of LSA Associates, Inc. has provided a Memorandum dated February 24, 2016 (Attachment 1 ), in response to an inquiry from me in regard to the 2002 Strategic Transportation Plan (Attachment 2) which was prepared by him for the City.

I would like the City Council to discuss the Memorandum from LSA Associates, Inc., as it relates to the Ortega Highway Widening Improvement Project. On January 5, 2016, the majority of the City Council denied approval to move forward with the preparation of the plans, specifications, and cost estimates for the project.

Attachment 1 -February 24, 2016- Memorandum from LSA Associates, Inc. Attachment 2 - 2002 Strategic Transportation Plan

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L SA LSA /I SS OC:IA Tt!S , INC. 20 f. Xf:CUT IV I' I'A RK, SUITf. 200 IRVI N!! , C/ILifOk NIA 02614

94!l.!i!i9 . 0GGG TEL 940.553.8076 FAX

MEMORANDUM

DATE. February 24, 2016

TO t Councilman Sam Allevato

FROM, Les Card

SUBJECT, Lower Ortega Highway Improvement Project

DERK~ LEY CARLSD/IP

FRESNO PALM SPRIN GS PT. RICIIMONP

RIVERSIDE ROCKLIN SAN L.UIS ODISPO

This memo is in response to your inquiry regarding the Strategic Transportation Plan prepared for the City of San Juan Capistrano in September 2002. That plan outlined a set of both primary and secondary strategies based on conditions known at that time, over foUiteen years ago. The plan suggested that primary strategies should be implemented ahead of secondary strategies. However, the plan also suggested that the "City may proceed with Secondary Strategies if it believes there are circumstances that warrant the projects implementation sooner than later. Secondary Strategies should be carefully and thoughtfully evaluated prior to proceeding with their implementation (page 11-Strategic Transportation Plan September 2002)."

Supporting this approach of "careful and thoughtful evaluation," the proposed improvements to lower Ortega Highway have been evaluated in the EIR certified in November 2009. The purpose of that project is to "relieve existing and future traffic congestion and improve the flow of traffic on SR-74."

The technical studies contained in that EIR clearly demonstrate that this existing two lane section of Ortega Highway is and will continue to be a choke point that results in severe traffic congestion and excessive delay if the widening does not proceed.

Without the project, residents in adjacent communities will experience significant delays getting onto Ortega Highway within the project limits. With the project, eastbound left tum lanes at unsignalized intersections will allow vehicles exiting minor streets to tUin right to eastbound SR-74 and complete a U-tum at the next available intersection. This is a significant safety benefit of the project to local residents.

Without the improvements, local traffic attempting to get onto Ortega Highway will be severely restricted due to limited gaps in congested traffic streams. This condition may result in motorists attempting unsafe turns due to len,6rthy delays.

A further consideration is that the La Pata Gap Closure will be completed as a four lane Primary Highway in the next year. That facility will provide traffic destined to and from the south with a direct route to San Clemente and the 1-5 freeway at Vista Hermosa or Pico (with a new improved interchange), and thus reduce pressure on Ortega Highway. This La Pata project provides a key facility for diversion of traffic around San Juan Capistrano, which was the primary objective of the Strategic Transportation Plan.

In summary, the proposed project to complete the overall Ortega Highway four lane improvement provides direct safety benefits to local residents requiring access to and from Ortega Highway, and will eliminate a congested bottleneck to thru traffic.

2124/16 (H:\LES\Lower Ortega Highway lmprovemenl 2·24-16 Mcmo.docx)

ATIACHMENT 1

San Juan Capistrano

September 2002

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ATTACHMENT 2

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I ntrod ucti.on The City of San juan Capistrano is faced with a number of planned local and regional transportation and land development projects that have the potential to sign!ncantly Impact traffic on City streets and State highways. In this context the City Initiated an evaluation of these planned projects in relation to specitk objectives to first divert through traffic from the community and second manage remaining congestion within the community. A number of planned transportation improvements and a major land development (Rancho Missjon Viejo [RMV]) were identified for evaluation and assessment relative to these key objectives. A review of existing transportation issues, identification of all potential future transportation improvements, conside ration o f adopted General Plan policies, and technical analysis through appllr.ation of the City's trafflc model were accomplished to develop the recommendations for the Strategic Transportation Plan (STP).

All long-range analysis assumed the City General Plan land use, adopted databases, for surrounding commu­nities, rer.ently filed land use and circulation plans for RMV undeveloped property, and long-range circula­tion plans, except as noted on page 1.

Background An initial effort for the STP was an evaluation of existing tr:msportation issues through review of planning documents, traffic studies, and other pertinent reports to establish a dear and consistent understanding of the City's transportation issues. Appendix A provides a listing of the documents and studies that were reviewed and a summary of key conclusions or facts that relate to the development of the STP.

Key conclusions of those studies include the following:

• Antonio Parkway and Ladera Environmental Impact Report (EIR) was completed in May, 1996. The envlronmentDI analysis assumed that La Pata extension to San Clemente would be completed by 2000. The Avery Parkway connection to Ortega Parkway was deleted from the Master Plan of Arterial Highways (MPAH) through this EIR.

• In 1997 daily traffic volumes on Ortega Highway were 25,400 ncar I-5 and 10,600 at the eastern city limits.

• Antonio Parkway opened in mid-1999. While there was little change in daily traffic volumes, the peak hour changes and directional redistribution resulted In significant improvements In the morning peak hour (from 1.06 to 0.63 Intersection Capacity Utilization [ICUJ) of the northbound 1-5 ramp intersec­tion and a moderate negative impact in the afternoon peak hour (from 0.79 to 0.94 ICU) at the same intersection. Some of the change at the northbound ramp can also be attributed to an Improvement tl1at occurred prior to Antonio opening.

• General Plan updated in December, 1999, There is a stated intent not to extend San Juan Creek Road or Las Ramblas subject to OCTA concurrence,

• Crown Valley Parkway Bridge opening in June, 2001, did not have a significant impact on traffic vol­umes on Ortega Highway or Antonio Parkway just north of Ortega Highway.

• OCTA releases In july, 2001, updated traffic model (OCTAM 3. 1) using OCP-2000 socioeconomic data. This plann'lng document represents the cun·ent policy statement by OCTA and the County regarding future growth (up to 2025) in the undeveloped area east of the City. East of the City, 21 ,000 dwelling units are projected.

• Daily traffic projections for the 2025 horizon on Ortega Highway are 34,000 west of Antonio Parkway and 53,000 between Rancho Viejo and La Novia. These forecasts are higher (40 percent near I-5) than the projections presented in the City's 1999 General Plan EIR

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• The CUy's General Plan traffic analysis used OCP-1996 socioeconomic data as a planning base. For the undeveloped area east of the City, the assumed dwelling units increased by over 11,000 when comparlng OCP-2000 to OCP-1996. There were also similar employment Increases. These increases would have a direct influence on traffic volumes for key roadways like Ortega Highway.

• In March, 2002, the County released a preliminary development plan for the RMV property allowing technical studies for the STP to be prepared. According to preliminary information from RMV, the proposed dwelllng units will be on the order of 14,000 units compared to over 21,000 assumed In OCP-2000. The 14,000 units may be reduced through the review and approval process.

• The extension of La Pata to San Clemente and Foothlll Transportation Corridor- South to 1-5 have continuously been assumed in all County planning studies. Currently the County ls preparing a Request for Proposal to Initiate the prellmlnary design efforts for the La Pata extension.

• The Talega Valley Specific Plan has general transportation mitigation measures that require demonstra­tion of sufficient roadway capacity for each phase of development. Several circulation phasing alterna­tives were evaluated during the entitlement process, Including a phased extension of La Pata, first to Camino Las Ramblas and then to Ortega Highway.

• Rivers]de County has initiated studies, known as CETAP, for a connection to Orange County. Potential corridors Initially Identified Include Ortega Highway, as well as new routes through central and southern Orange County.

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Identification of Preliminary Strategies The City has Identified two specific objectives for the STP.

Primary: Identify transportation strategies that divert through traffic from the community.

Secondary: After diversion strategies have been achieved, reduce the remaining traffic congestion

within the community.

With the background Information as a foundation, coupled with consideration of the primary and secondary transportation objectives, prelimlnary strategies were identified.

Primary Strategies

1, Extension of La Polo from Avenido Plea to Ortega Highway.

2. Extension of Foothill Transportation Corridor South jFTC-S) to 1-5.

3. Extension of Crown Volley Parkway east to FTC-S to connect to Oso Parkway forming a loop. This

is a planned facility of the MPAH.

4. Extension of Avery Parkway to Ortego Highway. This highway was deleted from the MPAH in

1995.

5. Extension of a highway from Crown Volley Parkway extension to Ortego Highway.

6. Highway connections to

Riverside County north of Orlega Highway.

7. Southbound 1-5 off-romp at Stonehill Drive.

The following additional strategies address the secondary objective of reducing congestion once the maximum through traffic diversion has been achieved. This ls an important understanding, since the following strategies may attract additional traffic if the diversion strategies have not been imple­mented:

Secondary Strategie5

8. Eastbound free right turn Iones

at Del Obispo end Camino Capistrano intersection.

9. Traffic signal coordination plan on Ortego Hignwoy end

downtown.

1 0. Major reconstruction of Ortega Highway/I-S Interchange.

11. Widening Ortega Highway to i ~ four Iones to eostem city limits. t.:.' ..:.·..:·:.:.. .. .._ ___ ...:s;'Lf._:L~~..c:.:~~L~.:_~-~====!1

Evaluation of Preliminary Strategies With the identification of preliminary strategies, the next step was to review all previous technical analysis that might provide Information relative to the consistency (or not) of each strategy with the plan objectives. It was also a stated desire of the City to be as firm as possible with any recommendation and to provide the highest levels of assurance that the strategies would, In fact, accomplish the objectives.

The strategies were at first qualitatively evaluated with available data and then each one was quantitatively analyzed applying the City's General Plan build out traffic model.

To accompllsh this procedure the City's traffic model was updated with the OCP-2000 database to be consistent with all other local and regional planning efforts. In addition , for all long-range analyses the land use and circulation plans recently flied by RMV for the undeveloped property to the east of the City were lnpulln place of the previous County forecast In OCP-2000. All of the long-range analyses maintained a consistent land use assumption (I.e .. City General Plan and OCP-2000 modlfied by the RMV plan) and ch·culatlon plan with the following modifications:

• No extension of San juan Creek Road to La Pata:

• No extension of Las Ramblas except as noted for spec! ftc strategy analysis;

• No exteflsion of Camino Los Padres between Golden Lantern and Camino Capistrano.

Intersection Level of Service (LOS)

LOS ICU Range

A 0.51-0.60

B

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E F

0.61-0.70

0.71-0.80

0.81-0.90

0.91-1.00

>1.00

Varlous highway network alternat!ves were then developed In an effort to Isolate U1c lmpar.l of each of the slrntegies, as well as to assess cumulative conditions. The output data, both daily traftlc volumes and peak hour intersection turn movements, were then analyzed and weighed against the primary and secondary objectives of the plan. Both average dally traffic (ADT) volumes and a .m. and p.m. peak hour intersection tum movements were ana1yzcd to provide the highest level of assurance regarding technical conclusions. The data presented in the following exhibits include both AD' I' vol.umes, which are weekday 24 hour two-way traffic volumes, expressed in thousands. The intersection data are expressed as an ICU or volume to capacity ratio. These ICUs can also be expressed In Level of Service (LOS) terms based on the noted ranges. For tliis evaluation process it is relevant to focus on changes !n actual ratios not just LOS s ince a signlficant lmpact can occur within an LOS range and could be missed If only LOS level~ were reported. Jn the following analyses and exhibits only those intersecUons that experienced measurable changes are reported. A measur­able change is defined as about one-half LOS or 0.05 !CU. The following evaluation of each specific prelimi­nary strategy applies this procedure.

Primary Strategies

1. Extension of La Pata from Avenida Pico (San Clemente) to Ortega Highway

La Pata Extension Benefits:

• 2,000-3,000 ADT reduction on Ortega Highway

The extension ofLa Pata was studied in the Talega Valley EIR In 1988. It was viewed as a mitigation measure provldlng alternate access to 1-5 first through Camino Las Ram bias and then to Ortega Highway In later phases of Talega development. The incremental extensions of La Patn nUowed the Talcga devel­opment to increase dwelling unit maximums proportionately.

• One-half LOS Improvement @ Ortega/1-5 ramps With this trend of providing more capacity for Talega development, the exten·

slon of La Pata would, at first, appear contra!)' to the objectives of San Juan Capistrano to divert through traffic from the community. Based on Tal ega traffic

alone, the extension of La Pata to either Camino Las Ram bias or Ortega Highway would !tkely result ln additional through traffic on Camino Las Ram bias and Ortega Highway desiring access to 1-5 northbound

and the reverse movement in the opposite peak hour.

However, this extension could also serve Ladera and other similar oriented traffic with access to San Clemente and 1-5 to the south instead of using Antonio Parkway to Ortega Highway to 1-5, through San Juan Capistrano.

The current technical evaluation has confirmed the benefit of the La Pata extension. The analysis examined both ADT and peak hour intersection conditions. Daily traffic volumes are decreased on Ortega Highway between Antonio Parkway and 1-5 by about 2,000 ADT in the near term and 2,000 to 3,000 ADT in the long range. This is equivalent to about five to ten percent, but more Important there are measurable benefits at the Interchange of Ortega Highway and I-5 when La Pata is extended to Ortega Highway. These conclusions are confirmed with both existing land use and long-range 2025 with RMV proposed land use plans. Volumes on I-5 through the City are also reduced by about 10,000 ADT in the long range when La Pata Is eKtended.

A mid-term analysis was also conducted assuming the comple­tion of the Ladera and Tal ega developments as they are currently approved. This evaluation also confrrmed the previous results that the completion of La Pata exten­sion provides a reduction of the traffic volumes on Ortega Highway similar to the data previously reported. The figures at right illustrate this information.

The extension ofLa Pata from Ortega Highway south to San Clemente is consistent with the objective to divert traffic around the community. There Is little benefit to an Incremental exten­sion from San Clemente to Camino Las Ram bias.

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2. Extension of Foothill Transportation Corridor South (FTC-S) to 1-5

The extension of FI'C-S was studied by the Transportation Corridor Agencies in 1990 and is currently being reevaluated il'] a federal environmental process. Based on the 1990 studies, the following conclusions, all assuming the same land use base, are supported:

• The No Project scenario results in the highest traffic demand on 1-5 and remaining parallel arterial highways such as the extension of La Pata and Antonio Parkway.

• Phasing FTC-S, i.e., nol construcllng the facility all the way to 1-5 and stopping at Ortega Highway, would substantially alter the traffic impacts of the complete facility. Jn other words, significant negative impacts would occur to Ortega Highway if FTC-South was phased to Initially stop at Ortega Highway.

• In the City's 1999 Updated General Plan, Policy 5.1 states: "Support the Implementation of the Orange County MPAH and the South Foothill Tollway Segment (CP Alignment)."

FTC-South Benefits:

• 20,000-25,000 ADT reduc­tion on 1-5

• ti,OOO ADT reduction on OrtegaHwy.

• Full LOS benefit at intersec­tions on Ortega Hwy. and Camino Capistrano

Consideration of this Information leads to the conclusion that a complete FTC-S extension to 1-5 Is consis­tent with the objectives of the strategic plan, i,e., divert through traffic frorn the community. A phased completion of the FTC would have the opposite effect and is not recommended.

The results of the traffic modeling confirm the prellminal)' conclusions, In that an extension ofFI'C-S (CP

--6-~ S1rategh; Tramportolion Plrm

Alignment) provides a 20,000 to 25,000 ADT reduction (about seven percent) in daily traffic volumes on l-5 through San Juan Capistrano and a 20,000 ADT reduction on Antonio Parkway. Reductions on Ortega Highway between Antonio and the 1-5 are

51/71 about 5,000 ADT ancl represent about a ten percent reduction with the FTC-S extension. Peak hour intersection perfonnance along Ortega Highway at the intersections of Rancho Viejo and La Novia and Camino Capistrano at the intersections of Ortega, Del Obispo, and San Juan Creek Road is also improved, as illustrated to the left.

Whlle these trends are not likely to change, it 1s important to note that extensive traffic analysiS is currently underway for the FTC-S federal environmental process exainin!ng numerous additional alternative corridor alignments and functional designs that mny influence these conclusions.

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3. Extension of Crown Valley Parkway Easterly of Antonio Parkway Consistent with the Master Plan of Arterial Highways (MPAH)

The current MPAH envisions an extension or Crown Valley Parkway from Antonio Parkway easterly to an lntocchange with FTC-S and further connection to a loop of Oso Parkway. All previous FTC-S studies have assumed this interchange with Crown Valley Parkway. As we understand the RMV plans recently filed, this MPAH facility is proposed to be deleted.

The results of the traffic modeling Indicate that consideration of the extension of Crown Valley Parkway east of Antonio Parkway by itself does not have a measurable Impact on daily traffic or peak hour Intersection performance in the core area of San Juan Capistrano. This conclusion Is the same with or without consideration of the extension of FTC-S. However, there are other MPAH facillties (Avery Parkway and Crown Valley Parkway) ln the area that should be studied at the same time and, therefore, consideration of deletion of this facility from the MPAH should involve the adopted cooperative study process wlth San Juan Capistrano as an active participant.

4. Extension of Avery Parkway to Ortega Highway

This highway link was deleted from the MPAH in 1995 during the Planned Community (PC) approval process for Ladera Ranch. A typical MPAH amendment cooperative process involving affected communities was not undertaken. Based on the traffic studies completed for ladera Tlanch (May, 1995), the extension of Avery Parkway to Ortega Highway does provide a measurable traffic reduction to Ortega Highway within San juan Capistrano.

The results of the traffic modeling confirm the previous conclusions that the extension of Avery Parkway does reduce daily volumes (about 5,000 ADT) on Ortega Highway within the city limits. Daily volumes are also reduced (4,000 to 6,000 ADT) on Antonio Parkway, Crown Valley Parkway, and I-5 between Ortega Highway and Avery Parkway. Peak hour intersection perfor­mance along Ortega Highway at the intersections or Rancho Viejo and La Novia is also measurably Improved (by about one full level of service). The figure at right illustrates this information.

It is significant to note that the studies used by the

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Avery Parkway Extension Benefits;

• 5,000 ADT reduction on Ortega Hwy.

• Significant intersection LOS Improve­ment on Ortega at La Novia and Rancho Viejo

• 4,000-6,000 ADT reduction on Antonio, Crown Valley, and I-5

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County to analyze the impacts of deleting Avery Parkway in 1995 did not include the large RMV development currently being considered east of the City. The County used data known as OCP-92, which assumed about 5,000 dwelling units east of the City. The current planning data, known as OCP-2000, assume about 21,000 units east of the City, and the recently filed plans by RMV would reduce that to about 14,000 units. The point is that, at a minimum, an additional 9,000 units are now planned in the area that would contribute directly to the need for Avery Parl1way and this represents a reason­able foundation to request reconsideration of Avery Parl~way.

While the evaluation of Avery Parkway assumed the historical alignment from the MPAH, i.e., connection to Ortega Highway, the recently filed RMV plan suggests another option. Connection to North River Road, which is parallel to Ortega Highway. connects to Antonio Parkway in a tee intersection. Based on the high daily volumes (in excess of 70,000 ADT) River Road is projected to cany, it appears logical to consider connecting lt to Avery Parkway. This alignment of Avery Parkway was modeled, and the results do indicate a significant Improvement (ten percent reductions in ADT) to Antonio Parkway and Crown Valley Parkway. The impacts to Ortega Highway within the City are the same as with the historical MPAH connection to Ortega Highway.

5. Extension of Crown Valley Parkway Easterly to North River Road

The function of this extension, which would generally parallel the planned alignment of FTC-S to Ortega Highway, would also duplicate some of the FTC's purpose Jf both facilities were built. However, with the uncertainty of FTC-S it is recommended that this type of extension be evaluated to determine potential traffic implications. It could serve as an attractive cutoff for Riverside County traffic destined for FTC-North, Mission Viejo, and Lake Forest. There may be significant topographic and other engineering and environmental issues associated with pursuing this facility. This facility ls evaluated assuming no extension of FTC-South.

This concept was conceived prior to the availability of the land use and circulation plan submitted by RMV for the area east of the City. The proposed RMV plan has two similar facilities known as 'A Street' and "C Street' connecting Oso Parkway and North River Road and FTC-S to Ortega I fighway, respectively. "A Street' is not, however, attracting an arterial highway level of traffic, probably due to the assumed classification and/

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Crown Valley Parkway .Easterly Extension Benefits:

or access to development areas. 'C Street" Is projected to carry at least a four lane demand of traffic.

• Significant ADT reduction on Antonio (9,000) and North River (11,000)

• One-half to full LOS Improvement on Ortega @ La Novia and Ranch Viejo Intersections in peak hours

The technical evaluation suggests that this type of facility would lessen the high dally volume demand on Antonio Parkway and North River Road and provide measurable peak hour intersection benefits along Ortega Highway at La Novia and Rancho Viejo. These results are shown at left.

• 2,000 ADT reduction on Ortega Highway

The potential function and benefits of this type of facility could be considered In the context of the ongoing cooperative planning effort for the RMV property. In this setting the proper relationship of this concept to the environmental, t.opographic, and land use Issues can be considered.

6. Connec.ion.s to Riverside County Northerly of Ortega Highway

Studies of alternative transportation corridors connect~ Jng Orange and Riverside counties have been stalled pending further discussions between the two counties. In the near term it appears that efforts wlll be focused on improvements to the Route 91 freeway before considering new corridors. When and if the study process resumes, the City should suggest a corridor alignment northerly of Ortega Highway connecting to TIC-South. The function of this type of facility would be to reduce demand to Ortega Highway Into San juan Capistrano.

7. Southbound 1·5 Off-Ramp at Stonehill Drive

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The technical analysi:l of this proposed southbound off-ramp is currently being refined; however, based on the initial evaluation, this improvement would provide minimal benefit to Ortega Highway/l-5 interchange and a greater benefit to the Camino Capistrano and Pacific Coast Highway southbound off-ramp intersection. This evaluation has been reviewed by several traffic analysts, and there is a high level of confidence in this conclusion of minimal diverSion from Ortega Highway Interchange. This ramp diverts some traffic from the Ortega southbound off-ramp (50 a.m./60 p.m. trips) and a greater amount from the Camino Capistrano ramp (150 a.m./160 p.m. trips). While the construction costs are significant, it is an improvement that meets the strategic plan objectives, and it is recommended to continue project development advancement through

preparation of a Project Study Report and Project Report. It may also be desirable to keep it packaged as long as possible with the Ortega Highway/I-5 interchange improvement process.

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Secondary Strategies

The remaining secondary strategic plan concepts address the objective of reducing congestion once the maximum through traffic diversion has been achieved . This is an important understanding, since the following strategies may attract additional traffic if the diversion strategies have not been implemented.

h1 general the Primary Strategies should be implemented ahead of the Secondary Strategies. However, the City may proceed with a Secondary Strategy if it believes there are circumstances that wan·ant the project's implementation sooner than later. Secondary Strategies should be carefully and thoughtfully evaluated prlor to proceeding with their Implementation. Analysis oft he impacts to the existing roadway networl1 on a short-term and mid -term basis should be carefully reviewed when considering the Secondary Strategies.

8. Eastbound Free Right Turn Lane at Del Obispo/Camino Capistrano Intersection

This is an Intersection improvement that would be designed to further encoumge traffic destined for 1-5 northbound to take Camino Capistrano to San juan Creek Road rather than use the Ortega Highway Inter­change. lt is recommended that a preliminary engineering plan and traffic analysis be inillated to determine cost, feasibility, right-of-way requirements, and beneflts.

9. Traffic Signal Coordination Plan on Ortega Highway and Downtown

The purpose of this strategy is to optimize and coordinate the operation of these traffic signals in an effort to improve traffic flow and reduce congestion and delay. Physical capacity is not increased. This strategy is being implemented by City staff.

10. Major Reconstruction of Ortega Highway/I-S Interchange

The engineering and traffic studies for this improvement are well underway, and it is prudent to continue the project development process in a timely manner. The levels of service at both intersections of the freeway ramps are projected to significantly degrade in the future. At the southbound ramp intersection the LOS i.~ projected to decrease from LOS C toE and LOS C to F In the morning and afternoon peak hours, respec­tively. It should be noted that these LOS levels consider the intersection only in isolation and not from an operational perspective, which would result in lower levels of service. For purposes of the analysis In this report we are looking for significant changes on a long range basis, to intersection levels of service. The operational analysis, which looks at issues of how an intersection's operation may be affected by closely spaced adjacent lntersectlons, would not yield any additional Information relative to the influence of the various roadway alternatives studied. Therefore, utilizing only the individual intersection LOS is justified as it provides a valuable tool !n revealing whether the proposed road improvements being considered are trending toward bettering or worsening the LOS. At the northbound ramps the. LOS is projected to decrease from LOS C to F and LOS B to E in the a.m./p.m. peak hours, respectively. The alternative designs being considered increase capacity and reduce congestion. Improvements to the Junipero Serra/I-5 interchange will also be considered as alternatives in this engineering and traffic study.

It should also be noted that improvements to the southbound 1-5 off-ramp intersection at Camino Capistrano are being implemented through the OCTA Freeway Chokepoint Program. A Project Study Report has been completed, and engineering and construction funds have been approved.

11. Widening Orteg~ Highway to Four L~nes to Easterly City Limits

Assuming the same traffic volume, this improvement will reduce congestion along this section of highway; however, without prudent traffic diversion strategies, traffic volumes could Increase, resulting 1n the same, or worse, congestion levels, only now with four Janes instead of two. This project Is directly related to the planned improvements at the interchange with I-5 and should not occur until the interchange is Improved, as existing interchange congestion would be exacerbated. It is further suggested that the City pursue and achieve commitments or resolution to the first five recommended strategies prior to further discussions or commitments to the widening of Ortega Highway.

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Recommendations The purpose of the STP Is to specifically IdentiFy community policies related ICi thr lmplerrwntllllon of transpol'lolion improvements thal will complement the object ives of I) uivertlng through traffic <nound the community and 2) effectively managing the traffic that remains. With thut purpose amlthe result~ of the previously documented technical evaluation, the following strategies are recommended:

Primary Strategies

1. Support the early implementation of the extension of La Polo from Avenido Pica to Ortega High­way as a single phase project.

2. Support the extension of Foothill Transportation Corridor- South from Oso Parkway to 1-5, south of Son Clemente, os o single phase project .

3. Request participation in any cooperative study process initiated by OCTA to consider deletion of Crown Volley Parkway from the MPAH. At this time the potential benefits of this facility are not clearly understood and, therefore, a distinct policy position is not recommended.

4. Support reconsideration of Avery Parkway extension from 1-5 to Ortega Highway, or connecting to River Road. Request through the RMV planning process specific evaluation of this facility as previously included on the MPAH.

5, Support, through the RMV planning process, an extension of Crown Valley Parkway easterly to North River Road (an arterial highway parallel to Antonio Parkway), which may be required if FTC­Sis not extended.

6. Monitor the transportation planning activities between Riverside and Orarge counties and request active participation if specific corridor studies ore initiated that consider connections between the lake Elsinore area and Orange County.

7. Pursue project development efforts foro southbound 1-5 off-ramp at Stonehill, if it is determined beneficial os a result of the City's current anplysis of the Ortega Highway Interchange alterna­tives.

Secondary Strategies

1n general the Prim my Strategies :.hould he lmpll!mcntc:d nhelld of the Sr.conclery Strategic~ . However, the Ctty m11.y proceed wllh a Secondary Strategy If it believes there are clr ·umstnnccs U1at wnrrnnt the project's lmplcmentaLion sooner than later. Secondary Strateglr.s should be Cllrcdully and thoughtfully evaluated prlor to proceeding wllh their hnplcmentat!on. Analysis of the lmpncts to the c:dstlng roadway nctworlt on a short-term and mid-term basis should be carefully reviewed when conslderlne the Secondary Strategies.

8. Proceed with preparation of preliminary engineering and a Project Report to fully analyze tne costs ond benefits of constructing on eastbound free right turn at Del Obispo/Camino Capistrano intersection.

9. Continue with a traffic signal coordination plan on Ortega Highway and downtown.

10, Continua the project development process for major improvements of the Ortega Highwoy/1-5 interchange.

11. Table the project development activities for widening Ortega Highway until commitments or resolution is achieved on strategies 1 through 5 and 1 0.

Slralegit lronsportoUon Pion ! 11

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Appendix A

Strategic Transportation Plan Summary of Traffic Studies and Reports

Antonio Parkway and Ladera EIR- May, 1995

Contrary to actual conditions In 2001, the La Pata extension to San Clemente was assumed completed In the Year 2000 Antonio Parkway and Ladera environmental analysis.

The Avery Parkway connection to Ortega Highway was deleted from the MPAH through this EIR proce~s.

Ortega Highway Traffic Mitigation Study- May, 1997

Expanded use of landfill (I.e., Imported trash) will marginally Increase truck traffic on Ortega Highway. Initial estimates were 50 to 100 loads per day each way. ln!tial reports were only 30 percent of maxlmum permitted, i.e., 600 tons/day.

Existing (1997) Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on Ortega Highway near 1-5 is 25,400, decreasing to 10,600 at the eastern city limits.

Traffic has increased 18,000 ADT in the past 20 years. Increases of 12,000 ADT are projected in the next20 years.

ADT on Ortega Highway west of Antonio Parkway was expected to drop 8,000 ADT upon opening of Anto­nlo Parkway. (This did not occur; there was only a minor change of 1,000 ADT.)

The maximum trash truck Increase (100 loads per day or 200 trips) constitutes about one percent of the total ADT (200/26,400 = 0.008).

Ortega Highway Is designated for special safety enforcement, and fines are doubled.

Eighty-seven pE:lrcent of all accidents occur within a three block segment between La Novia and 1-5.

Substantial congestion occurs at the I-5 ramps. The westbound left tum to southbound f-5 exceeds storage and blocks through lanes. The addition of 50 to 100 trash t!Ucks is expected to exacerbate this deficiency significantly.

Antonio Parkway Extension Before and After -June, 1 999

Ortega Highway west of Antonio dropped only 1,000 ADTwith Antonio Parkway (13K to 12K), and there was no change between I-5 and Rancho Viejo.

However, a substantial change did occur in the peak hour at the Intersection of the 1-5 northbound ramps and Ortega Highway: from 1.06 to .63 Intersection Capacity Utilization (ICU) in the a.m. (a four LOS improvement) and in p.m. from .79 to .94 ICU (one LOS ciecrease).

In summary, while there was little change in ADT, the peak hour changes and directional redistribution resulted in significant benefits (four LOS) to the a.m. 1-5 northbound ramp intersection and a moderate negative Impact (1.5 LOS) to the p.m. northbound ramp intersection. There were no changes to the I-5 southbound ramp intersection.

.Stralllglc l1or'lspcd~tion Plart-Appendi~~o A ! I

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Ortego Highway Traffic Forecasts- August, 1999

This report updates the previous forecast of Antonio Parkway impacts and revises the impact substantially to no ADT change with Antonio Parkway opening. However, peak hour llnk volumes near Antonio Parkway do change significantly: 43 percent Increase In a.m. (31 percent In peak direction) and 29 percent increase In p.m. (18 percent In peak direction).

City General Plan- December, 1999

The stated intent Is not to eKtend San juan Creek Road or Las Ramblas subject to OCTA concurrence.

The General Plan traffic analysis used OCP·96 as the basis for growth outside the City's sphere. ApproKi· mately 10,000 dwelling units were assllmed for the unincorporated areas east of the City. The proposed RMV plan would Increase that to 14.000 units. Traffic volumes on Ortega Highway near 1·5 are projected to be 20 percent higher. The additional development contributed to this increase.

Policy 1.5 · Reduce congestion at Ortega Highway/I-S

Policy 5.1 · Support CP alignment of FTC -South

Crown Valley Parkway Bridge Opening- June, 2001

Before and after traffic counts were taken to document the e£fect of this roadway connection between Mar· guerlte and Antonio Parkway. On a daily volume basis, there was no measura ble effect on Ortega Highway or Antonio Parkway just north of Ortega Highway. On a peak hour basis, there were some variations at the five intersections counted along Ortega Highway, both higher and lower, but no trend was apparent.

OCP 2000 and OCTAM. 3.1 -July, 2001

Thls planning document represents the most recem policy statement by Orange County regarding future growth In the undeveloped area east of the City. Between 2000 and 2025, total dwelling units are planned to increase by over 21 ,000 in thls area. '

Daily traffic forecasts for the 2025 horizon on Ortega Highway are 34,000 west of Antonio Parkway and 53,000 between Rancho Viejo Road and La Novia. These forecasts are higher (40 percent higher near 1·5) than the long .. range ADT reported in the City's 1999 Ccneral Plan EIR. which used OCP-96 as a foundation.

According to preliminary information from Rancho Mission Viejo, the proposed dwelling units will be about 7,000 units lower than currently assumed ln OCP-2000.

La 'Pata Assumptions

Consistent with the Master Plan of Arterial Highways, the La Pata Avenue extension to San Cl~mente is included in all OCP-96 and OCP-2000 traffic models.

Talega Volley Specific Plan

The transportation mitigation measures for this development require the demonstration that sufficient roadway capacity exists to accommodate each phase of development. Several circulation phasing alternatives were evaluated during the entitlement process, including provisions for the phased extension of La Pata, first to Camino Las Ramblas, and then to Ortega Highway.