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8/13/2019 CigaretteTax VN

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Revenue implications to the Vietnamese government of using taxes to curb

cigarette smoking

Christopher M. Doran a,, Joshua M Byrnes a, Hideki Higashi b, Khoa Truong c

a National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Australiab School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Australiac Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, United States of America

a b s t r a c ta r t i c l e i n f o

Keywords:

Tobacco

Revenue

Government

Vietnam

This study explores the impact on government taxation revenue from increasing excise on cigarettes inVietnam. A dynamic population model is used to estimate future patterns (both prevalence and

consumption) of tobacco use in Vietnam, with and without changes to tobacco excise for the period

20062016. Three increases in the base case excise tax rate of 55% are modelled: 65%, 75% and 90%. Various

price elasticities are used to examine variations in cigarette consumption while cross price elasticities are

used to explore shifts from cigarette to other forms of tobacco. Revenue implications for the period 2006

2016 are reported as discounted net present values (NPV) in 2006 values. The model predicts that smoking

rates in 2016, for both males and females, are marginally lower than base case estimates for all taxation

excise options with higher price elasticities generating greater reductions in prevalence. In all cases,

compared to base case estimates, the results indicate a fall in number of smokers, a reduction in amount of

tobacco consumed and an increase in overall taxation revenue. The additional gain in government revenue,

expressed in NPV terms, ranges from a low of VND 69,579 billion (or USD $4.35 billion) to a high of VND

108,492 billion (or USD $6.79 billion). Increases in tobacco excise provide an opportunity for the Vietnamese

government to increase revenue at the same time as reducing tobacco consumption. Further research into

the wider social and economic consequences of increasing tobacco excise in Vietnam is warranted.

2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

In Vietnam, almost 1 in 2 males (47%) and 1 in 50 females (2%)

consume some form of tobacco (General Statistics Ofce, 2007a).

Smoking prevalence is lower than a decade earlier when more than

50% of men and 3% of women smoked tobacco products, although

most of this reduction appears to have taken place between 1993 and

1998 (General Statistics Ofce, 1994, 2000). Smoking prevalence

appears to be evenly distributed between urban and rural areas

although tobacco users in different areas appear to smoke different

products. Waterpipe smoking is more prevalent in rural areas while

cigarettes are more popular in urban areas (Ministry of Health, 2003).

Among urban male smokers, 48.6% smoked cigarettes only and 3.8%

smoked waterpipe tobacco only. This is in comparison to rural male

smokers of whom 35.6% smoked cigarettes only and 16.0% smoked

waterpipe tobacco only (Ministry of Health, 2003).

Theproduction of cigarettes hasincreased steadily since 2000 (Asian

Development Bank, 2009). In the period 200006, total cigarette

production increased by approximately 42% (Asian Development

Bank, 2009). In 2007, production was estimated at 4320 million packs

(Asian Development Bank, 2009). The introduction of tax stamps, and

therefore more accurate reporting, is attributed to the majority of the

32% growth in cigarette output in 2000 (Kinh & Bales, 2003).

The tobacco industry in Vietnam is largely under government

control, with a few joint ventures with multinational companies.

These joint ventures between the government and multinational

companies are involved with all stages of production, from tobacco

growing and processing (joint venture with British American

Tobacco) to cigarette manufacturing (joint venture with Philip

Morris) and accessory production (joint venture with New Toyo).

Themajority of cigarettes produced in Vietnam aremade by the state-

owned Vietnam Tobacco Corporation (Vinataba) and its subsidiaries,

which currently own 11 of the country's 17 factories and produce

more than 200 brands nationwide (Euromonitor, 2007).

Vietnam has a tropical climate, which is very conducive to tobacco

cultivation, though output is unstable (Kinh & Bales, 2003). Between

2000 and 2005 Vietnam produced between 23,000 and 33,000 tons of

tobacco leaves annually (General Statistics Ofce, 2007b). Vietnam is

both an exporter and an importer of tobacco leaves, and primarily an

importer of various other inputs into the tobacco industry such as

special papers and aromas added to tobacco to make cigarettes.

Addictive Behaviors 35 (2010) 10891093

Corresponding author. National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of

New South Wales, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. Tel.:

+61 2 93850324; fax: +61 2 93850222.

E-mail address:[email protected](C.M. Doran).

0306-4603/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.addbeh.2010.07.010

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Addictive Behaviors
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2010.07.010http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2010.07.010http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2010.07.010mailto:[email protected]://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2010.07.010http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03064603http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03064603http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2010.07.010mailto:[email protected]://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2010.07.010


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Between 2001 and 2004, Vietnam imported between 12,000 and

15,000 tons yearly (about 40 to 50% of local production) ( General

Statistics Ofce, 2007b). High-quality cigarette brands with lters

tend to be produced using tobacco grown and processed abroad.

Several types of cigarettes are produced with imported tobacco leaves

processed domestically. The lower quality cigarettes rely primarily on

domestic supply of tobacco leaf or illegal imports of tobacco from

China (Kinh & Bales,2003). Thegovernment's expansionpolicy forthe

tobacco-growing sector aims to stabilize annual productionby 2010 ataround 40,000 ha under cultivation and 80,000 tons of processed leaf,

with a stated goal ofdomesticating tobacco supplyby 2015 so that

all cigarette production companies will use only domestically

processed tobacco (Guindon, 2010).

Tobacco cultivation employed about 72,000 full-time equivalent

(FTE) workers in 2006, or about 0.2% of the workforce (0.4% of

agricultural workers) (General Statistics Ofce, 2007b). Previous

estimates byKinh and Bales (2003)report the size of the workforce

involved in cultivation and simple post-harvest processing to be as

high 136,000 FTE workers. Tobacco farmers receive wide support

from Vinataba in the form of seeds, capital and rural infrastructure. As

of 2006, cigarette production employed around 18,000 workers or

0.05% of Vietnam's workforce (General Statistics Ofce, 2007b).

Employment in cigarette manufacturing remains stable amidst

increasing production suggesting gains in production efciency. In

general, workers' incomes in cigarette factories are reported as high

relative to the average worker income in the same localities (Kinh &

Bales, 2003). Despite the presence of an ofcial licensing system, the

number of people involved in cigarette distribution is largely

unknown. The number of FTE employed in cigarette distribution has

been estimated at approximately 23,000 (Kinh & Bales,2003). In total,

the tobacco industry accounts for approximately 0.3% of all jobs in

Vietnam with the number employed in cultivation appearing to have

been declining for some time.

Tobacco control in Vietnam has over the past few decades

undergone signicant transformations. The rst sign of commitment

to tobacco control began in 1989 with the government of Vietnam

introducing a law banning smoking in designated public places. The

law was reinforced in 1991 by a government decree and in May 1991,the Ministry of Health establishes the Vietnam Committee on

Smoking and Health (VINACOSH), a steering committee for Tobacco

Control. In 2000, the government furthers its commitment to tobacco

control by adopting a national tobacco control policy with the overall

objective of reducing the male smoking rate from 50% to 20% and

maintain the female smoking rate below 2%.

Tobacco products in Vietnam are taxed under three separate

taxation policies: a special consumption tax (tobacco excise), a value-

added tax and an enterprise tax. An excise tax rate of 65% is charged

on the pre-tax factory price of cigarettes and cigars; VAT is charged at

a rate of 10% of thepre-VAT retailpriceof cigarettes; and an enterprise

tax rate of 28% is applied on the net prots of enterprises selling

cigarettes.

A plethora of research indicates that taxation is one of the mostcost-effective strategies to reduce the burden of harm from tobacco

use (Gallet & List, 2003; Jha et al., 2006). Higher taxes are relatively

inexpensive to introduce and have the dual benet of addressing a

serious public health problem at the same time as raising additional

revenue. Higher taxes work by preventing the uptake of smoking by

the young and creating an incentive for regular smokers to either

quit or reduce smoking (Kinh et al (2006)). Governments achieve a

net increase in revenue as the additional revenue collected from the

higher tax paid by existing smokers is greater than foregone

revenue from those smokers that quit or reduce their consumption.

However, countries such as Vietnam, that have a vested interest in

tobacco production, cultivation and use, may question the revenue

implications of using tobacco taxation to impact on the industry.

This study explores the impact on government revenue collected

from excise and value-added tax as a consequence of increasing the

cigarette excise tax rate in Vietnam.

2. Method

In order to estimate the revenue implications of higher tobacco

taxes, the number of cigarettes sold without government intervention

(i.e., no tax rise) is compared to the number of cigarettes sold with

government intervention (i.e., tax rise). The excise tax is applied to thefactory price of manufactured cigarettes, which was derived by dividing

the value of output reported by the General Statistics Ofce (2007b)by

the volume of cigarettes produced reported by theAsian Development

Bank (2009). Value-added tax is calculated on the retail price of

cigarettes. The average retail price of cigarettes was estimated by taking

the weighted average of low grade cigarettes and high grade cigarette

prices based on market share. Retail and factory prices are assumed to

remainconstant in real terms.Tax increases areonly applied to the legal

sales of cigarettes, approximately 91% of the cigarette market. Further,

the proportion of illegal cigarette sales is assumed to remain constant

and unresponsive to increases in the price of legal cigarettes. The year

2006 is used as our base year with future projections over the

subsequent 10 years. A constant discount rate of 3% is applied to future

taxation revenue to provide a present value estimate for comparison

and evaluation.

2.1. Base case

The base case or business as usual scenario estimates the age-

specic smoking uptake and cessation rates bytting the parameters to

the observed prevalence data between 1993 and 2006 from the

Vietnam Living Standard Surveys (VLSS) (General Statistics Ofce,

1994, 2000, 2007a). Weighted least square method is used for

estimation. The estimated age-specic uptake and cessation rates are

then used to project the future prevalence of smoking in Vietnam

without the proposed interventions. This projection utilises a dynamic

population model thereby accounting for population growth.

The future rates of smoking prevalence in Vietnam are then

disaggregated by tobacco product, namely, cigarettes and waterpipe.The proportion of cigarette smokers for 1998 was taken from the

VLSS. The future proportion of cigarette to waterpipe smokers was

projected using International Monetary Fund (2009) forecast for

Vietnam growth in GDP and the switching income elasticity from

rustic tobacco to cigarettes measure from Laxminarayan and

Deolalikar (2004).

2.2. Increase in tobacco excise tax

The increase in excise tax is modelled as an increase in the tax rate

applicable in 2006. The base tax rate is 55% for 2006. Three increases

are modelled, increasing the 2006 excise rate to 65%, 75% and 90%.

A single price elasticity estimate is used for the whole

population. The price elasticity estimate derived by Kinh et al.(2006) for Vietnam is utilised to calculate the impact on

participation (number of smokers) and quantity (smoked by

those who still continue to smoke). Kinh et al. (2006) elasticity

estimates for participation and quantity are 0.94 (dividing the

estimated log coefcient of cigarette price by the smoking

prevalence in 2002, i.e. 0.529/0.56) and 0.469 respectively.

Kinh et al. (2006) calculate that using these estimates for

participation and quantity results in a total price elasticity estimate

1.41. However, we calculated the price elasticity for participation

by dividing the coefcient by the smoking prevalence observed in

1998 (i.e. 51%) to make it consistent with the year of data the

coefcient was estimated from. Within the literature, total price

elasticity estimates vary to some extent. As such, participation

estimates of

0.446,

0.206 and quantity estimates of

0.192 and

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0.088 are used to supplement the ndings. Table 1 presents the

participation and quantity estimates employed in this analysis.

Laxminarayan and Deolalikar (2004) provide evidence that an

increase in the real price of cigarettes not only has an initial impact on

the decision to smoke or not but a continuing effect on individuals'

initiation into smoking. Laxminarayan and Deolalikar (2004) nd a

1.175 own price elasticity on the initiation into smoking cigarettes.

A sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the impact on our nal

estimates of taxation revenue from incorporating the continuing

impact of higher cigarette prices to dissuade initiation into smoking.

As was mentioned earlier, waterpipe or rustic tobacco in Vietnam is

not taxed. Furthermore, illegally smuggled cigarettes are estimated at

up to 9% of the total cigarette market in Asia (Framework Convention

Alliance, 2008). As such, an increase in the price of legal cigarettes

comparative to other tobacco products provides incentives for smokers

to change their tobacco preferences. This has the potential to reducethetaxation revenue collected from tobacco in Vietnam. Laxminarayan and

Deolalikar (2004)provide an estimate of the impact of cigarette price

increases on smokers switching from cigarettes to rustic tobacco. This

estimate suggests that a 10% increase in the nal price of cigarettes

results in a 13.95% switch from cigarettes to rustic tobacco. A sensitivity

analysis is performed to measure the impact on taxation revenue from

incorporating the potential effect of cigarette smokers moving from

cigarettes to waterpipe tobacco.

3. Results

Results of the impact upon the prevalence of smoking and the

impact upon taxation revenue (excise and VAT) are presented for the

base case and the tobacco excise interventions.

3.1. Base case

The base case or business as usual scenario predicts the

prevalence of smoking, the number of manufactured cigarettes

legally sold and the resulting taxation revenue that would occur in

the absence of government intervention. Table 2 presents a

summary of the results for the base case. It can be seen from this

table that despite falling smoking prevalence rates, the number of

cigarette smokers is predicted to increase over time. For example,

male smoking prevalence falls from 49.5% in 2006 to 45.4% in 2016

whilst the number of male cigarette smokers increases from

11,862,000 males to 13,547,000 males. This result reects the

population growth and the effect of rising incomes on smokers'

preference for cigarettes over rustic tobacco. The total taxation

revenue derived from tobacco excise tax and value-added tax for

the period 2006 to 2016 is VND 113,979 billion. Applying a 3%discount rate to future revenue collected, the net present value

(NPV) in 2006 of the tax revenue from 2006 to 2016 is VND

95,518 billion, equivalent to USD $5.97 billion.

3.2. Increase in tobacco excise tax results

Table 3presents a summary of the 2016 smoking prevalence rates,

number of smokers, quantity of cigarettes consumed, sales, taxation

receipts and net present value of these taxation receipts for the period

20062016. The table summarizes these results for each of the three

taxation policy options using the varying price elasticity estimates.

Smoking prevalence rates in 2016, for both male and females, are

marginally lower after increasing the excise tax rate to 90% compared

with other taxation excise options and the base case estimates. It is

important to note the impact on prevalence of using a higher price

elasticity estimate (i.e., price elasticity 1) compared with a lower price

elasticity estimate (i.e., price elasticity 3). For example, increasing the

excise rate to 75% using price elasticity 1 results in an estimated 2016

male smoking prevalence of 41.8% compared with a male smoking

prevalence rate of 44.7% using price elasticity estimate 3.

In all cases of higher taxation, the results indicate a decrease in

number of total smokers and amount of tobacco consumed, compared

with the base case. These decreases are achieved in conjunction with

higher overall tobacco taxation receipts. Although the amount of

revenue generated by VAT decreases, as a consequence of a decrease in

packets sold, the increased revenue obtained from excise more than

offsets this. The NPV of total taxation receipts under all options is

substantially higher than base case estimates. The additional gain in

government revenue, expressed in NPV terms, ranges from VND69,579 billion (or USD $4.35 billion) to VND 108,492 billion (or USD

$6.79 billion) for a 90% excise rate price elasticity 1 and 3, respectively.

3.3. Sensitivity analysis

The results after the inclusion of a continuing impact upon

initiation (Scenario 2) are compared with the results produced from

accounting for a switch from cigarettes to rustic tobacco (Scenario 3);

Table 1

Price effect on participation and quantity.

Price elasticity estimate Participation Quantity

1 1.039 0.469

2 0.446 0.192

3 0.206 0.088

Table 2

Base case results: 20062016.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PrevalenceMale 49.5% 48.6% 47.8% 47.1% 46.6% 46.3% 46.1% 46.0% 45.8% 45.6% 45.4%

Female 1.61% 1.51% 1.43% 1.35% 1.28% 1.21% 1.14% 1.09% 1.03% 0.98% 0.93%

Cigarette smokers ('000s)

Male 11,862 12,053 12,242 12,392 12,537 12,710 12,905 13,096 13,273 13,423 13,547

Female 413 404 394 383 371 359 348 337 326 316 305

Total 12,275 12,457 12,636 12,775 12,908 13,069 13,253 13,432 13,600 13,739 13,852

Cigarette quantity (million packs)

Male 2503 2544 2583 2615 2646 2682 2723 2764 2801 2833 2859

Female 61 60 58 57 55 53 52 50 48 47 45

Total 2564 2603 2642 2672 2701 2735 2775 2814 2849 2880 2904

Sales (VND billion) 21,120 21,441 21,757 22,004 22,242 22,527 22,854 23,171 23,467 23,715 23,916

Taxation (VND billion)

Excise 5078 5155 5231 5291 5348 5417 5495 5571 5643 5702 5751

VAT 4620 4690 4759 4813 4865 4928 4999 5069 5133 5188 5232

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the results derived from including both effects (Scenario 4) and not

includingthe effects (Scenario1). Allscenarios account foran increase

in the excise rate to 75% using price elasticity 2. A comparison of the

2016 male and female smoking prevalence rates, the 2016 number of

cigarette smokers and the NPV of taxation revenue over the period

2006 to 2016 using a 3% discountrateis presented in Table 4. Itis clear

fromTable 4that the inclusion of a continuing impact upon initiation

rates from an increase in price (Scenario 2) has only a marginal effect

upon both prevalence and taxation revenue estimates when com-

pared with Scenario 1. However, accounting for the potential for

continuingcigarette smokers to switch their tobacco preferences has a

signicant impact upon the taxation revenue estimate with no effect

on the overall smoking prevalence for males or females.

4. Discussion

The purpose of this study was to explore the impact upon

government taxation revenue collected from excise and value-

added tax from increasing the excise tax rate applicable to cigarettes

in Vietnam. The results of this analysis suggest that taxation increases

are an effective policy option that can be used by the Vietnam

government to simultaneously curb tobacco use and raise revenue.

Although this is not surprising given the international evidence

around the cost-effectiveness of tobacco taxation, these results are

useful for governments of developing countries contemplating the

implementation of more effective tobacco control policies.

From the results presented in this study it is evident that

assumptions regarding the level of smokers' responsiveness to price

inuence the net impact on prevalence rates and subsequent revenue

from increases in tobacco taxes. Although a range of price elasticities

were applied in this study, each rate was applied for the whole

population. International evidence suggests that the responsiveness

to price is likely to differ by age, income and geographic location.

Another potential limitation of our analysis is the lack of attention to

non-taxed tobacco products such as waterpipe tobacco. The option of

substituting cigarettes for water pipe tobacco or other types of black

market tobacco may have an impact on government revenue from

increased cigarette excise rates and undermine the effectiveness of

taxation strategies on reducing smoking prevalence rates. This studyalso did not consider any potential increase in smuggling of illegal

cigarettes into Vietnam as a result of increases in the legal cigarette

price. Although it may be argued that price is only one of many factors

that contribute to smuggling activity, increases in the retail price of

legal cigarettes may be expected to have some effect. Further, our

analysis did not take into account other tobacco control policies and

factors that can affect the predicted smoking prevalence.

In spite of the potential caveats, the results of this study

demonstrate that increases in tobacco excise provide an opportunity

for the Vietnamese government to increase revenue at the same time

as reducing tobacco consumption. However, as noted above, taxation

implications are but one consequence of tobacco policy. Further

research into the wider social and economic consequences of

increasing tobacco excise in Vietnam is warranted.

Role of funding sources

The researchers would like to acknowledge the University of Queensland and

Atlantic Philanthropies for nancial support. The funders had no role in the study

design, collection, analysis or interpretation of the data, writing the manuscript, or the

decision to submit the paper for publication.

Contributors

All authors participated in the conception, analysis and writing of the manuscript.

In addition Doran was responsible for submitting the manuscript to Addictive

Behaviors. All authors have reviewed the nal manuscript submission and have

approved the submission of this manuscript to Addictive Behaviors.

Conict of interest

No authors have any actual or potential conict of interest.

Table 3

Excise rate results for 2016.

Base

case

Excise rate =65% Excise rate =75% Excise rate =90%

PE =1 PE = 2 PE =3 PE =1 PE =2 PE =3 PE =1 PE =2 PE = 3

Prevalence

Male 45.4% 43.6% 44.6% 45.0% 41.8% 43.8% 44.7% 39.2% 42.7% 44.1%

Female 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9%


Male 13,547 12,801 13,154 13,297 12,180 12,888 13,175 11,238 12,489 12,991

Female 305 285 295 299 267 287 295 241 276 290

Total 13,852 13,086 13,449 13,595 12,447 13,176 13,470 11,479 12,765 13,282


Male 2859 2637 2749 2793 2448 2667 2755 2173 2545 2698

Female 45 41 43 44 38 42 43 33 40 42

Total 2904 2678 2792 2838 2485 2709 2799 2206 2585 2741

Sales (VND billion) 23,916 22,056 22,994 23,368 20,468 22,306 23,048 18,169 21,289 22,572

Taxation (VND billion)

Excise 5751 6268 6534 6641 6711 7314 7557 7149 8376 8881

VAT 5232 4825 5030 5112 4477 4879 5042 3974 4657 4938

Net present value (VND billion) 95,518 165,521 172,343 175,069 166,545 181,063 186,937 165,097 192,648 204,010

Net present value (USD billion)* 5.97 10.35 10.78 10.95 10.42 11.32 11.69 10.33 12.05 12.76

*VND: USD exchange rate=15,988:1 (XE currency converter); PE refers to price elasticity and values correspond to those reported in Table 1.

Table 4

Sensitivity analysis results: 2016.

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Prevalence

Male 43.8% 43.0% 43.8% 43.0%

Female 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%


Male 12,888 12,652 11,800 11,583

Female 287 286 263 262

Total 13,176 12,937 12,063 11,845

Net present value (VND billion) 103,869 102,980 93,344 92,544

Net present value (USD billion) 6 .50 6.44 5.84 5.79

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Professor Jan Barendregt (University of Queens-

land) for assistance in forecasting smoking prevalence and the cost-effectiveness team

at Health Strategy and Policy Institute.

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