chapters outline prepared by: thomas j. cottrell modified by: carlos vecino hec-montreal chapter 9...
TRANSCRIPT
Chapters Outline
Prepared by: Thomas J. CottrellModified by: Carlos Vecino HEC-Montreal
Chapter 9Net Present Value and Other Investment Criteria
9.1 Net Present Value
Chapter 10Making Capital Investment Decisions
10.1 Project Cash Flows: A First Look
10.2 Incremental Cash Flows
10.3 Pro Forma Financial Statements and Project Cash Flows
Chapter 11Project Analysis and Evaluation
11.3 Break-Even Analysis 11.4 Operating Cash Flow, Sales Volume, and Break-Even 11.5 Operating Leverage
Irwin/McGraw-Hill copyright © 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 2
NPV Illustrated
Assume you have the following information on Project X:
Initial outlay -$1,100 Required return = 10%
Annual cash revenues and expenses are as follows:
Year Revenues Expenses
1 $1,000 $500
2 2,000 1,000
Draw a time line and compute the NPV of project X.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 3
NPV Illustrated (concluded)
0 1 2
Initial outlay($1,100)
Revenues $1,000Expenses 500
Cash flow $500
Revenues $2,000Expenses 1,000
Cash flow $1,000
– $1,100.00
+454.55
+826.45
+$181.00
1$500 x 1.10
1$1,000 x 1.10
2
NPV
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 4
Underpinnings of the NPV Rule
Why does the NPV rule work? And what does “work” mean? Look at it this way:
A “firm” is created when securityholders supply the funds to acquire assets that will be used to produce and sell a good or a service;
The market value of the firm is based on the present value of the cash flows it is expected to generate;
Additional investments are “good” if the present value of the incremental expected cash flows exceeds their cost;
Thus, “good” projects are those which increase firm value - or, put another way, good projects are those projects that have positive NPVs!
Moral of the story: Invest only in projects with positive NPVs.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 5
Fundamental Principles of Project Evaluation
Fundamental Principles of Project Evaluation:
Project evaluation - the application of one or more capital budgeting decision rules to estimated relevant project cash flows in order to make the investment decision.
Relevant cash flows - the incremental cash flows associated with the decision to invest in a project.
The incremental cash flows for project evaluation consist of any and all changes in the firm’s future cash
flows that are a direct consequence of taking the project.
Stand-alone principle - evaluation of a project based on the project’s incremental cash flows.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 6
Example: Preparing Pro Forma Statements
Suppose we want to prepare a set of pro forma financial statements for a project for Norma Desmond Enterprises. In order to do so, we must have some background information. In this case, assume:
1. Sales of 10,000 units/year @ $5/unit.
2. Variable cost per unit is $3. Fixed costs are $5,000 per year. The project has no salvage value. Project life is 3 years.
3. Project cost is $21,000. Depreciation is $7,000/year.
4. Additional net working capital is $10,000.
5. The firm’s required return is 20%. The tax rate is 34%.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 7
Example: Preparing Pro Forma Statements (continued)
Pro Forma Financial Statements
Projected Income Statements
Sales $______
Var. costs ______
$20,000
Fixed costs 5,000
Depreciation 7,000
EBIT $______
Taxes (34%) 2,720
Net income $______
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 8
Example: Preparing Pro Forma Statements (continued)
Pro Forma Financial Statements
Projected Income Statements
Sales $50,000
Var. costs 30,000
$20,000
Fixed costs 5,000
Depreciation 7,000
EBIT $ 8,000
Taxes (34%) 2,720
Net income $ 5,280
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 9
Example: Preparing Pro Forma Statements (concluded)
Projected Balance Sheets
0 1 2 3
NWC $______ $10,000 $10,000 $10,000
NFA 21,000 ______ ______ 0
Total $31,000 $24,000 $17,000 $10,000
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 10
Example: Preparing Pro Forma Statements (concluded)
Projected Balance Sheets
0 1 2 3
NWC $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000
NFA 21,000 14,000 7,000 0
Total $31,000 $24,000 $17,000 $10,000
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 11
Example: Using Pro Formas for Project Evaluation
Now let’s use the information from the previous example to do a capital budgeting analysis.
Project operating cash flow (OCF):
EBIT $8,000
Depreciation +7,000
Taxes -2,720
OCF $12,280
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 12
Example: Using Pro Formas for Project Evaluation (continued)
Project Cash Flows
0 1 2 3
OCF $12,280 $12,280 $12,280
Chg. NWC ______ ______
Cap. Sp. -21,000
Total ______ $12,280 $12,280 $______
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 13
Example: Using Pro Formas for Project Evaluation (continued)
Project Cash Flows
0 1 2 3
OCF $12,280 $12,280 $12,280
Chg. NWC -10,000 10,000
Cap. Sp. -21,000
Total -31,000 $12,280 $12,280 $22,280
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 14
Example: Using Pro Formas for Project Evaluation (concluded)
Capital Budgeting Evaluation:
NPV = -$31,000 + $12,280/1.201 + $12,280/1.20 2 + $22,280/1.20
3
= $655
IRR = 21%
Should the firm invest in this project? Why or why not?
Yes -- the NPV > 0, and the IRR > required return
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 15
Evaluating NPV Estimates I: The Basic Problem
The basic problem: How reliable is our NPV estimate? Projected vs. Actual cash flows
Estimated cash flows are based on a distribution of possible outcomes each period
Forecasting risk
The possibility of a bad decision due to errors in cash flow projections - the GIGO phenomenon
Sources of value
What conditions must exist to create the estimated NPV?
“What If” analysis
A. Scenario analysis
B. Sensitivity analysis
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 16
Evaluating NPV Estimates II: Scenario and Other “What-If” Analyses
Scenario and Other “What-If” Analyses “Base case” estimation
Estimated NPV based on initial cash flow projections
Scenario analysis
Posit best- and worst-case scenarios and calculate NPVs
Sensitivity analysis
How does the estimated NPV change when one of the input variables changes?
Simulation analysis
Vary several input variables simultaneously, then construct a distribution of possible NPV estimates
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 17
T11.12 Summary of Break-Even Measures (Table 11.1)
I. The General Expression
Q = (FC + OCF)/(P - V)
where: FC = total fixed costsP = Price per unitv = variable cost per unit
II. The Accounting Break-Even Point
Q = (FC + D)/(P - V)
At the Accounting BEP, net income = 0, NPV is negative, and IRR of 0.
III. The Cash Break-Even Point
Q = FC/(P - V)
At the Cash BEP, operating cash flow = 0, NPV is negative, and IRR = -100%.
IV. The Financial Break-Even Point
Q = (FC + OCF*)/(P - V)
At the Financial BEP, NPV = 0 and IRR = required return.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 18
Fairways Driving Range Example
Fairways Driving Range expects rentals to be 20,000 buckets at $3 per bucket. Equipment costs $20,000 and will be depreciated using SL over 5 years and have a $0 salvage value. Variable costs are 10% of rentals and fixed costs are $40,000 per year. Assume no increase in working capital nor any additional capital outlays. The required return is 15% and the tax rate is 15%.
Revenues $60,000
Variable costs 6,000
Fixed costs 40,000
Depreciation 4,000
EBIT $10,000
Taxes (@15%) 1500
Net income $ 8,500
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 19
Fairways Driving Range Sensitivity Analysis
INPUTS FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Base case: Rentals are 20,000 buckets, variable costs are 10% of revenues, fixed costs are $40,000, depreciation is $4,000 per year, and the tax rate is 15%.
Best case: Rentals are 25,000 buckets and revenues are $75,000. All other variables are unchanged.
Worst case: Rentals are 18,000 buckets and revenues are $54,000. All other variables are unchanged.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 20
T11.6 Fairways Driving Range Sensitivity Analysis (concluded)
Net ProjectScenario Rentals Revenues income cash flow NPV
Best case 25,000 $75,000 $19,975 $23,975 $60,364
Base case 20,000 60,000 8,500 12,500 21,900
Worst case 18,000 54,000 3,910 7,910 6,514
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 21
Fairways Driving Range: Rentals vs. NPV
Fairways Sensitivity Analysis - Rentals vs. NPV
Base case
NPV = $21,900
NPV
Worst case
NPV = $3,437
Rentals per Year
Best case
NPV = $60,035
0
-$60,00015,000
25,00020,000
$60,000
x
x
x
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 22
Total Cost = Variable cost + Fixed cost
Variable Fixed Total TotalRentals Revenue cost cost cost Depr. acct. cost
0 $0 $0 $40,000 $40,000 $4,000 $44,000
15,000 45,000 4,500 40,000 44,500 4,000 48,500
20,000 60,000 6,000 40,000 46,000 4,000 50,000
25,000 75,000 7,500 40,000 47,500 4,000 51,500
Fairways Driving Range: Total Cost Calculations
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 23
Fairways Driving Range: Break-Even AnalysisFairways Break-Even Analysis - Sales vs. Costs and Rentals
Accounting
break-even point
16,296 Buckets
Rentals per Year
$50,000
$20,00015,000
25,000
$80,000
Total revenues
Fixed costs + Dep
$44,000
Net
Income < 0
Net
Income > 0
20,000
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 24
Fairways Driving Range: Accounting Break-Even Quantity
Fairways Accounting Break-Even Quantity (Q)
Q = (Fixed costs + Depreciation)/(Price per unit - Variable cost per unit)
= (FC + D)/(P - V)
= ($40,000 + 4,000)/($3.00 - .30)
= 16,296 buckets
If sales do not reach 16,296 buckets, the firm will incur losses in both the accounting sense and the financial sense .
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 25
Operating Leverage
Basic Idea: “Operating Leverage” is the degree to which a project or a firm relies on fixed production costs.
Measuring Operating Leverage: If the quantity sold rises by X%, what will be the percentage change in operating cash flow?This percentage change (%) in Operating Cash Flow (OCF) is called the Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL).
Percentage change (%) in OCF = DOL x Percentage change (%) in Q
DOL = 1 + (Fixed Costs / OCF)
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (HEC-MONTREAL) Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2002 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Ltd Slide 26
Fairways Driving Range DOL
Since % in OCF = DOL % in Q, DOL is a “multiplier” which measures the effect of a change in quantity sold on OCF.
For Fairways, let Q = 20,000 buckets. Ignoring taxes,
OCF = $14,000 and fixed costs = $40,000, and
Fairway’s DOL = 1 + FC/OCF = 1 + $40,000/$14,000 = 3.857.
In other words, a 10% increase (decrease) in quantity sold will result in a 38.57% increase (decrease) in OCF.
Two points should be kept in mind: Higher DOL suggests greater volatility (i.e., risk) in OCF; Leverage is a two-edged sword - sales decreases will be
magnified as much as increases.