chapter 4 charts: predicting inflation · retail sales: general merchandise stores (gms) &...

Predicting the MarketsChapter 4 Charts:

Predicting InflationYardeni Research, Inc.

March 27, 2020

Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist

Mali QuintanaSenior Economist

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

March 27, 2020 / Chapter 4 Charts: Predicting Inflation www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Predicting Inflation 1-26

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Feb

yardeni.com

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 1.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Feb

CPI InflationHeadlineCore*

yardeni.com

* Excluding food and energy.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 2.

Predicting Inflation

Page 1 / March 27, 2020 / Chapter 4 Charts: Predicting Inflation www.yardeni.com


67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 842

7

12

17

22

27

32

3742

2

7

12

17

22

27

32

3742

WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE1967-1984

(dollars per barrel, monthly, ratio scale)

* Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly from 1946 to 1984, daily thereafter.Source: Haver Analytics.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 3.

67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 842

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX &AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: 1967-1984

(yearly percent change)

InflationAverage Hourly Earnings*CPI

* Production & nonsupervisory workers.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.




80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

T

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS*(yearly percent change)

Feb

* Production & nonsupervisory workers.Note: T = President Reagan fires members of PATCO on August 5, 1981. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau ofEconomic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 215

10

15

20

5

10

15

20

2019

UNION MEMBERS(as a percent of private wage & salary employment)

Private SectorUnion Membership


yardeni.com

Figure 6.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

Feb

AGE WAVE & INFLATION

Inflation Trend**

Age Wave*

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.** Five-year percent change in CPI at annual rate.* Percent of labor force 16-34 years old.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240

2

4

6

0

2

4

6

PRODUCTIVITY: NONFARM BUSINESS(20-quarter percent change, annual rate)

Q4

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.




64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240

200

400

600

800

0

200

400

600

800

Q4

GDP IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS(2012=100)

Price DeflatorsInformation ProcessingEquipmentSoftware

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan

RETAIL SALES: GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES (GMS) & ONLINE SHOPPING(as percent of total In-Store + Online GAFO*)

Percent of Total GAFO*Online**GMS: Warehouse Clubs & Super StoresGMS: Department Stores & Others

* GAFO (general merchandise, apparel and accessories, furniture, and other sales) includes retailers that specialize in department-store types of merchandisesuch as furniture & home furnishings, electronics & appliances, clothing & accessories, sporting goods, hobby, book, and music, general merchandise,office supply, stationery, and gift stores.

** Electronic shopping and mail order houses.Source: Census Bureau and Haver Analytics.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 10.




18001810

18201830

18401850

18601870

18801890

19001910

19201930

19401950

20

40

60

80

100

20

40

60

80

100US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: 1800-1947

War of 1812(1812-1815)

Civil War(1861-1865)

World War I(1914-1918)

World War II(1939-1945)

* Annual data. Base index from 1800 to 1947 is 1967 = 100.** 1982-84=100.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States.

yardeni.com

19481958

19681978

19881998

20082018

2028

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

OctCPI**

Cold War(1947-1989)

Figure 11.

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Dec

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: ADVANCED ECONOMIES(yearly percent change)

yardeni.com

Source: IMF.

Figure 12.




72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Feb

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JAPAN(yearly percent change)

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Feb

CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES: DURABLE GOODS(percent change)

USEurozoneJapanSwedenSwitzerlandTaiwanUK


yardeni.com

Figure 14.




98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Feb

CHINA: PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Feb

CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

yardeni.com

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 16.




49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2590

95

100

105

110

90

95

100

105

110

OUTPUT GAP: ACTUAL DIVIDED BY POTENTIAL REAL GDP(percent)

Q4

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Congressional Budget Office and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2490

95

100

105

110

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

Feb

RESOURCE UTILIZATION RATE & OUTPUT GAP(percent)

Resource Utilization Rate*

Output Gap**

* Average of all industries’ capacity utilization rate and employment rate, i.e., percentage of labor force that is employed.** Actual divided by potential real GDP in percent.

Source: Congressional Budget Office, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.




49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 274.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5NON-ACCELERATING INFLATION RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT (NAIRU):ESTIMATED & PROJECTED(percent)

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09 14 19 24 29-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Q4

NAIRU* MINUS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(percent)

* Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment.Source: Congressional Budget Office.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.




62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 242

4

6

8

10

12

2

4

6

8

10

12

Feb

US MONEY MULTIPLIER(M2 as a ratio of Monetary Base)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 241.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

2.20

2.25

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

2.20

2.25

Q4

M2 VELOCITY(Nominal GDP as a ratio of M2)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.




64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

WAGE INFLATION & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(using average hourly earnings)

FebFeb

Average Hourly Earnings*(yearly percent change)

Unemployment Rate(percent)


yardeni.com

Figure 23.

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 242

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES(percent, sa)

Feb

U-6 Rate**

Underemployment Rate*Plus Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* Total number of people working part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus part time for economic reasonsas percent of civilian labor force.

** Unemployed plus marginally attached


Figure 24.




74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

5.2

5.6

JOB OPENINGS: NATIONAL & SMALL BUSINESS(percent, 3-month average)

Feb

NFIB: Small Businesswith Job Openings**

JOLTS: Job Openings Rate*

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus job openings level.** First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Independent Business.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

2

4

6

8

10

12

Feb

NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Feb

NFIB: Small Businesswith Job Openings*(percent, 3-month average)


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Independent Business.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.




74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 245

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Feb

WAGE INFLATION & SMALL BUSINESS JOB OPENINGS

FebNFIB: Small Businesswith Job Openings**(percent, 3-month average,12 months ahead)

Average Hourly Earnings*(yearly percent change)

* Production & nonsupervisory workers

** First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Federation of Independent Business.

Figure 27.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

0

50

100

150

Feb

QUITS RATE & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

Consumer ConfidenceIndex (1985=100, sa)

Quits Rate*(percent, sa)

* Private industry.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.




2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan

TOTAL UNEMPLOYED AS RATIO OF JOB OPENINGS


yardeni.com

Figure 29.

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Feb

Feb

NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & QUALIFIED APPLICANTS(percent, sa)

Percent Small Business

With Job Openings*

With Few or no qualifiedapplicants for job openings

* First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.Source: National Federation of Independent Business.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.




64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 241.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS(yearly percent change)

Feb

Average Hourly EarningsPrivate Industry (3.0)Production &Nonsupervisory Workers (3.3)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: MANUFACTURING*(yearly percent change)

Feb

yardeni.com


Figure 32.




81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Q4

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX: PRIVATE INDUSTRY(yearly percent change)

Employment Cost IndexTotal CompensationWages & SalariesBenefits


yardeni.com

Figure 33.

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 231.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

Feb

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS& EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI)(yearly percent change)

Average Hourly Earnings*ECI Wages & Salaries**

* Production and nonsupervisory workers.** All private industry.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.




64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-5

0

5

10

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

Feb

Q4

HOURLY COMPENSATION & AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS(yearly percent change)

Hourly Compensation: Nonfarm BusinessAHE: Production & Nonsupervisory Workers


yardeni.com

Figure 35.

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q4

HOURLY COMPENSATION & EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX(yearly percent change)

Hourly Compensation: Nonfarm BusinessECI: Private Industry Workers


yardeni.com

Figure 36.




83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 231.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

Feb

Feb

ATLANTA FED’S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER(yearly percent change)

Wage Growth Tracker*Average Hourly Earnings**

* Three-month moving average of median wage growth.** Production & Nonsupervisory Workers.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Feb

Feb

ATLANTA FED’S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER*(yearly percent change)

Job StayerJob Switcher

* Three-month moving average of median wage growth.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

yardeni.com

Figure 38.




58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Feb

Feb

Core CPI*(yearly percent change)


* Excluding food and energy.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 39.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-5

0

5

10

15

-5

0

5

10

15

Q4

NONFARM BUSINESS: IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR & HOURLY COMPENSATION(yearly percent change)

Nonfarm BusinessImplicit Price DeflatorHourly Compensation


Figure 40.




98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Feb

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JAPAN(yearly percent change)

BOJ’s Inflation Target

CPI InflationHeadline (0.5)Core* (0.2)

yardeni.com

* Excluding energy, food, alcohol.Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

Figure 41.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Feb

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: EUROZONE(yearly percent change)

ECB’s Inflation Target

CPI InflationHeadlineCore*

* Excluding energy and unprocessed food.Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 42.




98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Feb

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATORS(yearly percent change)

PCED

Fed’s Inflation Target

HeadlineCore*

* Excluding food and energy pricesSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 43.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.4.6.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.43.63.84.04.24.44.64.85.05.2

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

QE1 QE2 QE3

S&P 500 INDEX & QE

3/26

3/25

S&P 500 Index

US Treasuries+ Agency Debt+ MBS(trillion dollars)

Note: QE1 (11/25/08) = Fed starts buying $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/16/2009) = Fed starts buying $300bn in Treasuries.QE2 (11/3/10) = Fed starts buying $600bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12) = Fed starts buying $40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended).QE3 expanded (12/12/12) = Fed starts buying $45bn/month in Treasuries.Source: Federal Reserve Board and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 44.




58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2490

190

290

390

490

590

690

790

890990

90

190

290

390

490

590

690

790

890990

Feb

FebCONSUMER PRICE INDEX & PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(indexed 1959 =100, ratio scale)

Headline

Personal ConsumptionExpenditures Deflator

Consumer Price Index

yardeni.com

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 45.

58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2490

190

290

390

490

590

690

790

890990

90

190

290

390

490

590

690

790

890990

Feb

FebCONSUMER PRICE INDEX & PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(indexed 1959 =100, ratio scale)

Ex Food & Energy

Personal ConsumptionExpenditures Deflator

Consumer Price Index

yardeni.com


Figure 46.




90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Feb

Feb

CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)

Headline Inflation

PCED*CPI

* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 47.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Feb

Feb


Core Inflation*

PCED**CPI

* Excluding food and energy.** Personal consumption expenditures deflator.


yardeni.com

Figure 48.




2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Feb

Feb

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

CPI Inflation

Core Excluding ShelterRent of Shelter

yardeni.com


Figure 49.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

3

6

9

12

0

3

6

9

12

Feb


Medical Care ServicesCPIPCED*

* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 50.




90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5.5

-4.5

-3.5

-2.5

-1.5

-.5

.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

-5.5

-4.5

-3.5

-2.5

-1.5

-.5

.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

Feb


Consumer Durable GoodsCPIPCED*

* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 51.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Feb

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR(yearly percent change)

Core PCED

Market Based*Official

* Market-based PCE is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludesmost implicit prices (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenses of nonprofit institutionsserving households.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 52.




http://blog.yardeni.com

http://blog.yardeni.com

[email protected]

Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2020. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted onwww.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issuedwithout regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needsof any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guideto future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, butshould not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed asrecommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futurescontracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. andconstitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps may be downloaded, transmitted,broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwisedisseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent ofYardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from YardeniResearch, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietaryand intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. YardeniResearch, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/orto track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without furthernotice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civilremedies for the violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmittedby this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available onrequest.

chapter 4 charts: predicting inflation · retail sales: general merchandise stores (gms) &...

Documents