business forum 2010 economic update
DESCRIPTION
One of Australia’s leading and incisive economists, Craig James explains how Australia’s performance has shown signs of strength and resilience compared to other economies and shows signs of recovery. He also delves into what is likely to happen and affect our economy into the future. As a seasoned professional within banking, finance and journalism over the last 27 years, Craig is currently Chief Equities Economist at Commonwealth Securities, where he interprets 'big picture' economic and financial trends for customers, clients and staff. http://www.charteredaccountants.com.auTRANSCRIPT
W1 - Economic update
Craig James
Chief Equities Economist
CommSec
Economy 2010: “May you find what you are looking for”
Craig JamesChief Economist, CommSec, April 2010
media.merchantcircle.com
Important information
This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the
objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual.
Before acting on the information in this seminar, you should consider its
appropriateness to your circumstances and, if necessary, seek
appropriate professional advice.
Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399
AFSL 238814 (CommSec) is a wholly owned but non-guaranteed
subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124
and a Participant of the ASX Group.
Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.
Australia & the World
� Global healing process
� Two speed global economy
� Asia’s decade
� Two-speed domestic economyeconomy
� China & population
� World focus is on debt
� Australia’s focus is on sustainable prosperity.
The Big Picture
Drivers of world economyContribution to growth 2010
percentage points
0.85China0.76United States
0.19India0.17Japan0.15Newly indust.Asia 0.15Newly indust.Asia
0.15Brazil0.12ASEAN 5
0.08Russia0.07Germany0.07France
0.07Canada0.06Mexico
1.46Other countries
4.2WORLD
Source: IMF, CommSec
* Newly industrialised Asia - Hong Kong, Taiwan
Singapore and South Korea
ASEAN 5 - Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand
Phillipines, Vietnam
World in recovery
� US economy recovers…but major hopes rest with China… www.flixsnips.com/hong-kong-advertisment-skyline/
China awakes
� Land of 1.3 billion people industrialises…Major resource demands…
www.novinite.com
China on industrialisation path
� Same path, different sizes of population.
www.thenewmans.id.au
Australia in 2010 and beyond
� No recession
� China, population & construction
� Managing prosperity
� Two-speed?� Two-speed?
� Housing shortage
� Tightening job market
� Policy challenges.
New commodity boom
Population & Construction
� Population growth…opportunities & challenges…Construction pipeline is full…
Two speed economy
� Western Australia & Queensland:65% of exports; 50% of investment…
Housing issues
� High prices?…demand & supply…but is housing really unaffordable?
So What?
Home prices to rise 5-8% in 2010
Business & Consumers
� Confidence rebounds to near record highs……but reluctant to spend & borrow…
WHAT WE SPENT IN 2009selected, percent change on year ago
39.1BOATS, CARAVANS, BICYCLES
17.7WATER & SEWERAGE CHARGES 17.7WATER & SEWERAGE CHARGES
16.9SPORTING & RECREATIONAL SERVICES
13.8TAKE-AWAY FOOD
13.6MEDICINES MEDICAL AIDS
13.3LIQUOR STORES
-4.3PURCHASE OF VEHICLES
-11.4JEWELLERY, WATCHES, CLOCKS
-12.9MOTORING FUEL
-13.2NEWSPAPERS & BOOKS
Source: CommSec, based on ABS data
Looking ahead
Winners
� Housing-dependent industries & retailers
� Large retailers
� Consumers� Consumers
� Imports
Losers/Challenges
� Tourist operators/regions
� Small retailers
� ‘Old economy’.
Outlook for jobs
� Firms didn’t fire, didn’t hire…Flexible work practices to continue…
So What?
Skilled staff in demand; wage costs to rise
Outlook for interest rates
� RBA near normal…where do we go from here? Savers are key winners…
So What?
More rate hikes in 2010; Fix vs. Variable
Aussie dollar & shares
� Shares to rise in line with stronger economies…Aussie may ease, but still above-average…
So What?
Competition for funds;Budgeting, exports
Global Wall of Worry
� Debt, debt and debt
� Stimulus to be withdrawn
� Double-dip recession?
� US mortgage foreclosures
World's largest economies% total2009, US$ billion
24.6$14,256United States18.7$5,068Japan28.5$4,909China35.8$3,353Germany44.6$2,676France5
foreclosures
� Commercial property
� Dubai, Greece, Spain
� China boom, yuan.
3.8$2,184United Kingdom63.7$2,118Italy72.7$1,574Brazil82.5$1,464Spain92.3$1,336Canada102.1$1,236India112.1$1,229Russia121.7$997Australia13
0.6$331Greece28
Source: IMF, CommSec
Budgets & Debt
CommSec forecasts
FORECASTS
1.70% in 2009Economic growth3.25% in 20102.50% mid-2010Inflation2.75% end-20105.25% mid-2010Unemployment 5.25% mid-2010Unemployment4.75% end-20104.50% mid-2010Cash rate4.75-5.00% end-2010
5,150 by June 2010Sharemarket
5,600 by December 2010US95c in June 2010Australian dollarUS90c in December 2010
www.despair.com
Disclaimer: This paper represents the opinion of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia (the Institute) or its members.The contents are for general information only. They are not intended as professional advice - for that you should consult a Chartered Accountant or other suitably qualified professional.The Institute expressly disclaims all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information The Institute expressly disclaims all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information in these papers.