burnaby real estate market report first quarter 2019 · 2020-01-12 · detached home sales by area...

KLEIN GROUPBURNABY REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORTFIRST QUARTER 2019

www.kleingroup.com

Q1-2019 MARKET SUMMARY

Burnaby sales continued to be relatively slow within the larger context of the Lower Mainland, primarily due to a combination of Federal and Provincial economic and mortgage policies. Q1-2019 volume and unit sales, as well as average prices, were well down from Q1-2018, while listings inventory and expired listings were up, all of which favoured buyers. That said, such a market al-ways presents great opportunities. Klein Group market research and service are second to none, so please con-tact us to find out how we can give you an edge when you decide to buy or sell.

DOWN

DOWN22%

DOWN DOWN

Mortgage News And Insights . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Residential Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Detached Homes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

VOLUME: $382,251,619 – down 40% from Q1-2018UNITS: 488 – down 30% AVERAGE PRICE: $783,302 – down 15%SALES/LISTINGS RATIO: 13% – down 17%

VOLUME: $140,147,938 – down 51% from Q1-2018UNITS: 93 – down 42%AVERAGE PRICE: $1,506,967 – down 16%SALES/LISTINGS RATIO: 7% – down 4%

Townhouses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

VOLUME: $56,224,560 – down 40% from Q1-2018UNITS: 79 – down 37%AVERAGE PRICE: $710,709 – down 2%SALES/LISTINGS RATIO: 16%

Condominiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

VOLUME: $183,299,501 – down 32% from Q1-2018UNITS: 315 – down 23%AVERAGE PRICE: $581,903 – down 9%SALES/LISTINGS RATIO: 17% – down 41%

KLEIN GROUP ©2019BURNABY MARKET REPORT: FIRST QUARTER 2019 2

RESIDENTIAL SALES OVERVIEW First Quarter Volume Sales: 2017 – 2018 – 2019

Monthly Unit Sales: 2017 – 2018 – 2019

Monthly Volume Sales: 2017 – 2018 – 2019

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017

HIGHLIGHTS AND INSIGHTS

Q1-2019 VOLUME SALES DOWN 40% FROM Q1-2018Unit sales down 30%. Sales/listing ratio of 13% – Buyers’ Market.

Q1-2019 NEW LISTINGS UP 62%, EXPIRED LISTINGS UP 60% On average: sale times up 17 days; sellers got 95.6% of asking price.

BEST PRICE BRACKETS FOR BUYERS Detached $2,000,000-$2,999,999 /// Townhouse $900,000- $1,499,999 /// Condo $900,000-$1,499,999

BEST PRICE BRACKETS FOR SELLERS Detached $900,000-$1,499,999 /// Townhouse $400,000- $899,999 /// Condo $200,000-$399,999


RESIDENTIAL SALES IN DETAIL

2017 2018 2019 2018 - 2019

Volume Sales $618,212,739 $640,153,595 $382,251,619 -40%

Unit Sales 755 694 488 -30%

Listings Inventory 2,348 2,351 3,815 +62%

Sales/Listings Ratio 32% 30% 13% -17%

Expired Listings 161 193 310 +60%

Sale Price / Asking Price Ratio 98.9% 99.9% 95.6% -4.3%

Average Days-On-Market 31 28 45 +61%

Average Sale Price $818,825 $922,412 $783,302 -15%

8

264 259

80

120

80 28

11 2 0

114

292

128 99

74 22

7 6 1 15

73 48

63 59 27 16 8

201720182019

First Quarter Unit Sales By Price: 2017 – 2018 – 2019

First Quarter Sales And Listings Summary: 2017 – 2018 – 2019

2018

2019

2017


DETACHED HOME SALES First Quarter Volume Sales: 2017 – 2018 – 2019



2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017


Q1-2019 VOLUME SALES DOWN 51% FROM Q1-2018Unit sales down 42%. Expired listings down 1%.

Q1-2019 SALES/LISTINGS RATIO 7% – BUYERS’ MARKET On average: sale times down 1 day; sellers got 93.6% of asking price.

BEST MARKETS FOR BUYERSEast Burnaby, Edmonds, Buckingham Heights, Brentwood Park

BEST MARKETS FOR SELLERSSuncrest, Upper Deer Lake, Willingdon Heights, Burnaby Lake,


DETACHED HOME SALES BY AREA

Detached Home Sales And Listings: April 2018 - March 2019

Unit Sales By Area: March 2019

Detached Home Average Sale Prices: April 2018 - March 2019

Sales Active Listings

Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Big Bend 0 3 $0 --

Brentwood Park 0 11 $1,375,900 -8.2%

Buckingham Hts. 0 14 $2,139,900 -9.9%

Burnaby Hospital 1 14 $1,416,600 -10.8%

Burnaby Lake 3 17 $1,324,400 -8.4%

Capitol Hill 3 38 $1,356,700 -7.2%

Cariboo 0 0 $0 --

Central 0 10 $1,214,700 -9.1%

Central Park 1 10 $1,340,300 -10.3%

Deer Lake 0 9 $2,074,600 -12.9%

Deer Lake Place 1 11 $1,604,600 -7.5%

East Burnaby 0 39 $1,062,600 -12.0%


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Edmonds 0 18 $1,196,100 -9.7%

Forest Glen 2 15 $1,596,800 -9.7%

Forest Hills 0 4 $0 --

Garden Village 0 8 $1,402,400 -12.5%

Greentree Village 0 8 $1,017,000 -7.8%

Government Rd. 1 22 $1,682,300 -9.5%

Highgate 2 14 $1,319,600 -3.4%

Lake City Industrial 0 0 $0 --

Metrotown 1 24 $1,793,800 -6.3%

Montecito 1 10 $1,423,100 -10.8%

Oakdale 1 0 $0 --

Oaklands 0 0 $0 --

Sales ActiveListings

Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Parkcrest 2 23 $1,425,300 -7.0%

Simon Fraser Hills 0 0 $0 --

Simon Fraser U. 0 7 $1,612,300 -9.0%

South Slope 2 51 $1,570,900 -4.0%

Sperling-Duthie 1 28 $1,465,800 -10.7%

Sullivan Heights 0 3 $1,044,500 -16.6%

Suncrest 3 4 $1,180,200 -8.5%

The Crest 0 10 $1,328,100 -11.6%

Upper Deer Lake 5 17 $1,607,300 -10.5%

Vancouver Hts. 1 26 $1,371,600 -6.9%

Westridge 1 10 $1,463,500 -13.6%

Willingdon Hts. 4 16 $1,301,400 -6.7%

TOTAL 36 494 $1,498,575 -8.0%


TOWNHOUSE SALES First Quarter Volume Sales: 2017 – 2018 – 2019



2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017


Q1-2019 VOLUME SALES DOWN 40% FROM Q1-2018Unit sales down 37%. Average price/sq.ft. of $548 down 12%.

Q1-2019 SALES/LISTINGS RATIO 16% – BALANCED MARKET On average: sale times up 24 days; sellers got 95.7% of asking price.

BEST MARKETS FOR BUYERSOaklands, Simon Fraser U, Greentree Village, South Slope

BEST MARKETS FOR SELLERSThe Crest, Simon Fraser Hills, Forest Hills, East Burnaby


TOWNHOUSE SALES BY AREA

Townhouse Sales And Listings: April 2018 - March 2019


Townhouse Average Sale Prices: April 2018 - March 2019


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Big Bend 1 0 $0 --

Brentwood Park 1 10 $818,700 -6.4%

Buckingham Hts. 0 0 $0 --

Burnaby Hospital 1 0 $809,900 -5.5%

Burnaby Lake 1 10 $856,300 -0.5%

Capitol Hill 0 0 $673,000 -10.4%

Cariboo 1 2 $0 --

Central 1 5 $793,900 -9.1%

Central Park 2 6 $873,900 -8.0%

Deer Lake 0 0 $0 --

Deer Lake Place 0 0 $0 --

East Burnaby 2 1 $0 --


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Edmonds 3 12 $553,600 -5.6%

Forest Glen 0 4 $888,600 -7.5%

Forest Hills 2 5 $752,500 -3.8%

Garden Village 0 0 $0 --

Greentree Village 0 5 $837,200 -6.6%

Government Rd. 1 3 $851,600 +0.0%

Highgate 3 21 $563,200 -2.6%


Metrotown 3 26 $724,900 -8.0%

Montecito 1 7 $599,000 -0.1%

Oakdale 0 0 $0 --

Oaklands 0 7 $1,281,600 -9.5%


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Parkcrest 0 1 $0 --

Simon Fraser Hills 3 6 $629,700 +0.1%

Simon Fraser U. 0 7 $714,600 -3.5%

South Slope 1 12 $837,500 -6.1%

Sperling-Duthie 1 4 $0 --

Sullivan Heights 0 2 $811,000 -4.5%

Suncrest 0 0 $0 --

The Crest 4 8 $968,200 -0.5%

Upper Deer Lake 0 1 $0 --

Vancouver Hts. 0 4 $828,100 -3.4%

Westridge 0 2 $607,000 -2.5%

Willingdon Hts. 1 1 $822,500 -8.7%

TOTAL 33 172 $753,564 -4.2%


CONDOMINIUM SALES First Quarter Volume Sales: 2017 – 2018 – 2019



2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017


Q1-2019 SALES VOLUME DOWN 32% FROM Q1-2018Unit sales down 23%. Average price/sq.ft. of $712 down 5%.

Q1-2019 SALES/LISTINGS RATIO 17% – BALANCED MARKET On average: sale times up 26 days; sellers got 95.4% of asking price.

BEST MARKETS FOR BUYERSForest Glen, Edmonds, Sullivan Heights, Metrotown

BEST MARKETS FOR SELLERSCariboo, Central Park, Highgate, Capitol Hill


CONDOMINIUM SALES BY AREA

Condominium Sales And Listings: April 2018 - March 2019


Condominium Average Sale Prices: April 2018 - March 2019


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Big Bend 0 0 $0 --

Brentwood Park 22 114 $750,400 -10.1%

Buckingham Hts. 0 0 $0 --

Burnaby Hospital 1 1 $612,000 -3.7%

Burnaby Lake 0 0 $0 --

Capitol Hill 3 8 $415,400 +1.1%

Cariboo 3 4 $458,900 +2.3%

Central 2 15 $476,700 -2.9%

Central Park 7 21 $723,800 -5.4%

Deer Lake 0 0 $0 --

Deer Lake Place 0 0 $0 --

East Burnaby 0 2 $0 --


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Edmonds 3 30 $722,500 -10.4%

Forest Glen 3 32 $764,600 -6.0%

Forest Hills 0 0 $0 --

Garden Village 0 0 $0 --

Greentree Village 0 0 $0 --

Government Rd. 2 16 $507,500 +1.4%

Highgate 12 58 $636,600 -6.6%


Metrotown 33 248 $660,800 -8.5%

Montecito 0 1 $0 --

Oakdale 0 0 $0 --

Oaklands 1 3 $644,700 -4.8%


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Parkcrest 0 2 $0 --

Simon Fraser Hills 0 1 $385,000 -3.9%

Simon Fraser U. 7 45 $610,000 -7.8%

South Slope 5 30 $722,900 +1.5%

Sperling-Duthie 0 0 $0 --

Sullivan Heights 4 32 $375,400 -5.3%

Suncrest 0 0 $0 --

The Crest 0 0 $0 --

Upper Deer Lake 0 2 $0 --

Vancouver Hts. 2 13 $628,100 -0.2%

Westridge 0 0 $0 --

Willingdon Hts. 2 4 $547,100 -2.1%

TOTAL 112 682 $622,644 -6.6%


MORTGAGE NEWS AND INSIGHTSMortgage Rate Outlook

The once bright outlook for the Canadian economy darkened toward the end of 2018 amidst disruptions in Alberta oil production and a policy-in-duced slowdown in the Canadian housing market. This slowdown, along with global economic growth concerns, prompted a dramatic revision in market expectations for future Bank of Canada rate tightening. As a re-sult, key benchmarks for bank borrowing costs plummeted, reversing course after a year of steady increases.

While those key benchmarks were falling, Canadian lenders delayed passing on savings to borrowers as the B20 mortgage stress test stifled growth in mortgage credit. However, as we move into the traditionally competitive spring housing market, mortgage rates are heading down-ward. The average contract rate for 5-year mortgages has declined about 30 basis points from its peak in 2018, reaching 3.44 per cent in March. Unfortunately, this still means a stress test rate of 5.44 per cent, even for the highest quality borrowers. While contract rates are falling, the posted 5-year qualifying rate for insured mortgages has not budged in 11 months at 5.34 per cent. If 5-year bond yields sustain at their cur-rent level, a 5-year qualifying rate under 5 per cent should follow suit.

We are forecasting that lower mortgage rates will prevail for 2019 with the average 5-year contract rate falling to 3.30 per cent through the spring and early summer and the 5-year qualifying rate finally moving below 5 per cent for the remainder of the year. While there is an outside chance of a rate cut from the Bank of Canada, our baseline is for the Bank to remain on hold in 2019. Therefore, we are forecasting no change in the prime rate, from which variable rates are discounted.

Economic Outlook

The Canadian economy sputtered to the finish line in 2018, growing just 0.4 per cent in Q4 and contracting in December. This weak hand-off to the Q1-2019, drag from lower Alberta oil production and the ongoing

TERM FIRSTQUARTER

SECOND QUARTER

THIRD QUARTER

FOURTH QUARTER

Prime Rate 3.95% 3.95% 3.95% 3.95%

5-YearQualifying

Rate5.34% 4.99% 4.84% 4.99%

5-Year Average

DiscountedRate

3.60% 3.44% 3.30% 3.44%

Mortgage Rate Forecast For 2019

Source: Bank of Canada; BCREA Economics; Rate SpyNote: Average 5-year discounted rate is the average rate available in the market, offered at a discount from the posted 5-year qualifying rate.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission

negative impact of the mortgage stress test, compounded by rising interest rates last year, mean that slow growth will continue into the first half of this year.

We expect the Canadian economy will expand just 1.5 per cent in 2019 as it struggles to rotate from consumption and residential in-vestment led growth to export and business investment led growth. The latter will be a particularly difficult shift as the Alberta energy sector continues to face significant challenges.

Of note, the Canadian yield curve has inverted, with the 10-year rate falling below the yield on a 3-month Treasury bill. This means that the average bond market investor expects an economic slow-down, substantial enough for the Bank of Canada to decrease its policy rate. While not always a reliable indicator of recession, an inverted yield curve does often portend slower growth ahead.


16,000 FollowersOver

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$330Bof assets under management•

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182,000 LEAD

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2019

Referral relationships with top U.S. and international real estate companies

Powerful Leads & Referrals Channels

Connecting Youwith more Canadians

nationwide

7 Social Media Channels

17,000 LikesOver

15,000 FollowersOver

Supporting the Community

Royal LePage Shelter Foundation

$29Mraisedthrough

royallepage.ca

Incredible Reach

per year from digital channels

100% Canadian

The Voice of Canadian Real Estate

Most Influential

Phil SoperPresident & CEO of Royal LePage named most influential leader in Canadian Real Estate.

#1 ⸋

◊ Based on market share and/or agent count. ∇ Google Analytics January 1 - December 31, 2018. ⸋ Phil Soper, Royal LePage President & CEO, named Most Influential Canadian every year from 2015 to 2018 by Swanepoel Power 200. º 2017. ● 2018.

FebruaryBy The Numbers

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Industry Leadership

#1markets nationwide

in

100◊

of all transactional dollar volume in Canada.º35%in transactional

dollar volume.º$90BOver Participated in

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media impressions in 20182.7 BILLION

We’ve doubled the size of the company, and tripled

revenue since 2002

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UnstoppableMomentum and Growth

A Strong Heritage

media impressions than the closest competitor

~41M VISI

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KLEIN GROUP ROYAL LEPAGE SUSSEX

Klein Group Residential is a multiple award-winning team of real estate advisors specializing in re-sale, investment and new home marketing throughout the Greater Vancouver area.

With an emphasis on in-depth market insights, innovative marketing, a wide range of services and highly-personalized client care, we consistently deliver in any market – whether you’re buying or selling a principal resi-dence, a vacation getaway or an investment property. Trust, integrity and years of proven results are our hallmark.

At Klein Group we have been very fortunate and feel a great responsbility to give back. Here are some organizations we support:

• Royal LePage Shelter Foundation • Summits of Hope• Blanket BC Society• Dress for Success• Arts Club Theatre Company

• Chamber of Commerce, North and West Vancouver • Friends of Tupper Alumni Scholarship Fund• REALTORS® Care Foundation

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burnaby real estate market report first quarter 2019 · 2020-01-12 · detached home sales by area...

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