bullseyeupdated2
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Forecasting Page Views & Ad Impressions for Bullseye Ad Campaigns
David Feng
Statistical Analyst Intern
GEL, Trax
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What is Bullseye?
• Cross-game advertising– A client’s ad campaign runs
exclusively on a selected game space for a set amount of time.
• Example– I want to advertise for a new
football game I created.– I feel that Madden players
would be interested in my game.
– I buy a Bullseye campaign on Madden NFL 09, since I am targetting Madden players.
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Existing Bullseye Procedures
• Sales team has two options– Propose a predicted number of ad
impressions to the client (but how much?)
– Charge a flat rate on the Bullseye campaign (Halo 3 = Balls of Fury)
• Problems– Under-delivery: must compensate
client in some other way – make goods
– Over-delivery: lost opportunity for revenue
– Flat-rate pricing: lost opportunity for revenue on AAA games
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Bullseye
Q1’07 Q2’07 Q3’07 Q4’07 Q1’08 Q2’08
eCPM (censored)
% of GS Revenue 9% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2%
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The Bullseye Predictive Model
• Objective: To provide a more objective means for predicting the number of advertising impressions in a game space.
• 4 phasesI. Data-collection and processing
II. Predict number of page views for a game space 30 days, 60 days and 90 days in advance
III. Find the relationship between page views and advertising impressions
IV. Test validity of models and develop business rules
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The Bullseye Predictive Model
• Objective: To provide a more objective means for predicting the number of advertising impressions in a game space.
• 4 phasesI. Data-collection and processing
II. Predict number of page views for a game space 30 days, 60 days and 90 days in advance
III. Find the relationship between page views and advertising impressions
IV. Test validity of models and develop business rules
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I. Data Collection
• Gathered data on all games released from 1/1/06 to 5/31/08 using Trax– Data pulled in Mon-Sun increments
• 3782 games, ~2700-2800 after removing irrelevant games
• Computed lifecycle data for all games on the weekly level
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II: Predicting Page Views
• Predict page views because it should be the strongest determinant of ad impressions
• DeterminantsFrom Trax
oUsersoPage ViewsoSearchesoVideos ServedoTotal Users TrackingoNew Users TrackingoPrice ChecksoForum Activity
Pre-existing AwarenessoIP Type (Original, Sequel, Licensed)oMilestones (News, Previews, Videos)
Quality of GameoAverage Review Score (as a stand-in for preview score)
Gamespot TrafficoQuarter game is released
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Heteroskedasticity: Big Games = Big Errors
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Constructing the Forecast Interval
• Two sources of uncertainty– Standard Error of Regression (SER)
– Coefficient Uncertainty
• SER– Future is uncertain (see figure)
– Reduce through stratification (e.g. separate models for X360 games, casual games, Q4, high PV-growth)
• Coefficient Uncertainty– Uncertain coefficients, so uncertain
dependent variable
– Ignored
– Sample size not large enough
– Software limitation
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Solution
• Sell Bullseye ad campaigns on at least 3 SKUs to reduce risk of underdelivery
• Just need to reduce the SER to improve models’ goodness-of-fit
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Summary of Results – 30 Days
Platform Week0 Week1 Week2 Week-1 Month1
X360
PS3
Wii
PC
DS
PSP
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Summary of Results – 60 Days
Platform Week0 Week1 Week2 Week-1 Month1
X360
PS3
Wii
PC
DS
PSP
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Summary of Results – 90 Days
Platform Week0 Week1 Week2 Week-1 Month1
X360
PS3
Wii
PC
DS
PSP
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Testing Validity of Models
• Use games released after 5/31/08• Test Interface & Final Interface• Interface will eventually be automated into a new
tool, so that the sales rep only needs to put in the game ID, and all data will be pulled from Trax
• A new Bullseye tool and/or an internal version of Trax could be created to ease testing and usage of the models
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Next Steps
• Test models• Finalize relationship between page views and ad
impressions (need 2007 Bullseye campaign data)• Generate models for 120-day and 180-day windows• Establish business rules using the results of testing
– New rules on Bullseye ad campaigns (e.g. at least 3 SKUs)– Ability to revise projections at the 90-day, 60-day, 30-day windows– All Bullseye ad campaigns can convert to the CPM model
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Acknowledgements
• Sara Borthwick (manager)• Entire Trax Team (Anne, Christian, Christie, Colina,
Marisa, Matt, Maura, Shanna)• Product Marketing (Andrew, Nina)• Statisticians (Erika, Phil)• Excel Master (Jared)