Bosnia and HerzegovinaConflict Analysis

Steering Board Ambassadors/Board of Principles/ meeting

Sarajevo, 8 October 2013

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Overview 1. Methodology2. State of mind3. Perception of problems4. Institutions and governance5. International Community enagegment6. Agents of change7. Citizen participation8. Varying views with regard to B&H perspective (table)9. Views of the past and reconcilliation10. Vision of B&H11. Security: likelyhood of violence12. Focus grups: main issues13. Conclusions

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1. Methodology1. Multidimensional Questionnaire

2. Prism research Public Opinion Poll, May 7th to 22nd 2013;Research sample and size: –1500 respondents ;–805 Bosniaks, 178 Croats and 462 Serbs; –840 of the respondents live in rural, 660 in urban areas.

3. Desk review

4. Interviews and consultations–Interviews with key stakeholders–Focus groups, May 24 – June 4. 2013 :

• Youth, working class, demobilized soldiers and women; • Over 50 participants in total from across BiH; • Facilitated and assisted by several local experts.

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2. State of mind• 50.2% of the respondents describe their state of mind over

the past year in negative terms (lethargic); • 12% satisfied, optimistic or content;

• 52.2% feel their life is the same;• 39.6% worse than a year ago;

• 49.3% expect it to be the same by the next year;• 33.1% worse by the next year.

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State of Mind

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Total

B&H Bosniak Croat Serb OtherLethargic 50.2 54.1 41.0 46.3 53.5Neither happy nor unhappy 13.8 12.3 9.9 18.2 12.9Angry 9.4 10.5 14.8 5.6 6.5Pessimistic 7.2 5.2 10.3 9.8 4.4Satisfied 6.8 6.1 10.5 6.1 9.3Depressed 4.8 5.6 5.5 3.4 4.4Optimistic 4.4 3.2 5.9 6.3 2.0Content 2.2 1.9 1.6 3.0 1.5Happy 1.0 .8 .5 1.3 3.5Frustrated .2 .2 .0 .0 2.0

Ethnicity

3. Perception of Problems

• 72.4% of respondents see corruption as the main problem across the country;

• 59% see economy as the main problem;

• 50.5% see politics as the main problem;

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4. Institutions and governance - Trust

• 51.8% have confidence in the police;

• 42.7% in religious leaders;

• 28.6% trust international community

• 24.4 % and 16.6 % trust entity and cantonal governments, and

• 11.4 % trust the politicians,

• Only one in 10 citizens trust local politicians.

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Institutions and governance: Levels of trust

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Total

B&H Bosniak Croat Serb OtherPolice 51.8 45.5 50.3 63.5 60.8Religious leaders 42.7 36.2 57.1 49.5 38.4European Union 39.0 42.5 58.4 26.1 40.5Army 37.4 45.9 48.3 18.7 38.6United Nations 31.2 32.3 43.8 24.9 33.3The courts 29.1 29.0 23.2 31.7 35.6Your municipal authority 29.0 22.8 19.5 42.6 43.9EUFOR 24.7 30.0 34.6 11.2 35.6OHR 24.7 29.9 42.5 8.9 27.7Your entity government 24.4 18.4 19.0 37.5 24.0International Tribunal for former Yugoslavia

23.4 30.2 34.5 7.4 27.6Cantonal government 16.6 17.5 23.0 12.5 19.9Council of ministers 14.0 16.6 18.3 8.0 14.3Political parties 11.4 10.8 17.6 10.3 11.8

Ethnicity

5. International Community engagement

• Active engagement: 69.6% (FB&H) 71.5% (Bosniak)25.3% (RS) 18.2% (Serb)

57.4% (BD) 61.3% (Croat)

• No engagement:9.6% (FB&H) 11.2%(Bosniak)48.8% (RS) 52.4%(Serb)11.7% (BD) 11.4%(Croat) 9

6. Agents of change

• 63.0% youth

• 50.5% citizens

• 26.1 % intellectuals

• 24.2% international community

• 53.0% support active international engagement.10

7. Citizen participationDisinterest in actively participating in changing the society:• 53.85 % willing to vote in the elections;

• 34.5 % willing to leave the country; • 31.1 % would demonstrate;

• 16.7% willing to join a citizens’ action group;

• 14.5% a political party;

• 6.6% ready to use force or violence if necessary.11

8. Varying views with regard to B&H`s EU perspective

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FB&H RS BD Urban Rural

EU membership It is the only w ay how BiH can survive

32.1 25.8 25.0 25.6 32.7

The membership is preferable, but not critical for the survival of the country

36.3 21.4 28.1 31.5 30.0

The membership is important, but ethnic interests are more important

4.9 9.9 16.7 8.3 6.1

EU w ill fall apart before BiH becomes a member

7.4 17.7 20.9 12.2 11.1

BiH w ill fall apart before becoming a member

5.1 11.8 4.7 9.1 6.3

I do not care about EU 7.0 7.3 4.6 7.7 6.6EU does not care about BiH anymore 4.1 5.0 .0 4.5 4.1Other .0 .1 .0 .1 .0No answ er 3.1 1.0 .0 1.0 3.2

Entity Type of settlement

9. Views of the past and reconcilliationEthnic groups have starkly different views of the past conflict:

• 39.7% of the respondents believe that there has been reconciliation in BiH;

• 13 % believe that reconcilliation is possible;

• 73% would prefer to live in communities dominated by their own ethic group.

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10. Vision of B&H• 71.9% of Serbs and 53.6% Croats wish to live in

independent mono-ethnic entities;

• 36.7% of Bosniaks desire to live in B&H within its current borders,

• 20.6% of them wish to live in an independent Bosniak entity;

• 28.5% of them accept living inB&H within it‘s current borderds and entities.

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11. Security: likelyhood of violence• 2/3 believe that the outbreak of new armed conflict in the

Balkan region is not likely in the next 5 years;

• 35.7 % from all ethnic groups think that there could be some violence (criminal acts, violent protests, separate ethnic incidents,broader ethnic conflict);

• Likelihood of B&H not splitting peacefully?o 58.8 % Bosniakso 55% Croatso 44.7% Serbs

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Security: likelyhood of violenceIf integrity of BiH was threatened…Use peaceful means • 54.4% Bosniaks• 45% Croats• 30.6% Serbs Willing to take up arms• 13.5% Bosniaks • 12.6% Croats and • 1.5% Serbs

Not engage at all• 28.4% Bosniaks, • 40.1% Croats and• 64.9% Serbs would not engage in any way.

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12. Focus groups: main issues

• Democratic process: high level of election fraud;

• Corruption as a parallel system, more trusted than administration;

• Heavily dependent on the international community.

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13. Conclusions• Lethargy prevents change

• Citizens passive, unless threatened…

• But majority feel their ethnic group still being threatened

• Wrong perception of international engagement

• Crisis of common identity and all levels of society (that no constitutional reform can fix)

• Future uncertain and unpredictable

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