bookexpo america -- book industry trends 2009
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Book Industry TRENDS 2009BookExpo America 2009
Working to create a more informed, efficient and empowered book industry
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Agenda
Introduction Methodology and Sources of Data Key Highlights and Findings Questions and Answers
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Michael HealyExecutive Director, Book Industry Study Group,
Inc.
Introduction
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The book industry’s leading trade association for policy, standards and research
Develops and maintains standards and best practices that support effective communications between all parts of the supply chain
Conducts research and gathers data on issues affecting the whole book industry
About BISG
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BISG’s mission
Working to create a moreinformed, empowered and efficient
book industry.
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How we accomplish our mission
Providing a meeting point for the book industry Policy development Best working practices Consensus on industry issues
Developing and maintaining standards Researching key issues affecting the industry
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Research and publications
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Book Industry TRENDS 2009
The only complete view of today’s book-publishing industry
Detailed tables, charts and analysis
An up-to-date report that covers the entire industry, including the growing segment of small to mid-size publishers and top tier players
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TRENDS 2009: availability and pricing
Available July 2009 Will be published in printed and electronic editions Single-use and multi-use PDFs will be available Free to most categories of BISG members
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The only worldwide research and advisory firm serving the media and information industry
Global team of 50+ Track publishing segments in the US, Europe and Asia Provide fact-based analysis of markets, companies, trends,
technology Deliver actionable advice to CEOs and their teams in 300+
firms Offer subscription, membership and custom consulting
services
About Outsell
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Michael Healy: Book Industry Study Group Leigh Watson Healy: Outsell, Inc.
Methodology and Sources of Data
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TRENDS 2009 Objectives
Provide comprehensive data on publishers’ sales Fully integrate small, medium and large publisher
sales estimates in one data set Analyze book sales by updated category, channel
and format definitions Deliver insight into book sales performance and
projections
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Research Methodology
Identify book publishing universe Collect sales data from publishers via online survey Interview large and midsize publishers Compile and analyze resulting data Incorporate secondary data sources, Outsell industry
data and knowledge, and expert network insight Create projections and relate to past TRENDS data at
various levels
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Book Publishing Universe
From Bowker database: 130,477 active publishers in 2008 Number of active publishers increased 27%
Total number of publishers continues to increase Virtually all of this increase occurs in the under-
$50M/year small-publisher category
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Book Publishing’s Long Tail
31.5%
68.5%
Publishers > $50MPublishers < $50M
$12.7 Billion
$27.6 Billion
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Integrated view of long-tail and large publishers’ sales
Analyzed survey data by expanded key segments– Format– Category– Channel– Foreign vs. domestic– Frontlist/backlist
Additional analysis to ensure consistency with past TRENDS estimates
Fully Integrated Projections
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Leigh Watson Healy, Chief AnalystOutsell, Inc.
Book Industry Trends
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Book Publishing $40.3 Billion in 2008
27%
9%
6%22%
4%
18%
14%Adult Trade
JuvenileTrade Religious
Professional
Scholarly
Elhi
College
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Growth Leaders and Laggards, 2008Book Industry Growth – 1%
-10.0%
-2.3%
-1.3%
3.9%
4.0%
4.5%
4.5% College
Elhi
Professional
Scholarly
Juvenile Trade
Adult Trade
Religious
1%
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Projected Growth, 2008-2010Book Industry Growth – 2.1% CAGR
-0.5%
0.6%
1.5%
1.6%
2.4%
3.0%
3.5% College
Elhi
Professional
Adult Trade
Scholarly
Juvenile Trade
Religious
2.1% CAGR
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2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
All Book Publishing Segments
Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M)
2007 to 2008 -1.5%
2008 to2009 0.7%
2009 to 2010 2.2%
CAGR 2007-2010 0.4%
CAGR 2008-2010 1.5%
Publishers’ Unit Sales (M)
39,936 40,321 41,04042,028
2007 to 2008 1.0%
2008 to 2009 1.8%
2009 to 2010 2.4%
CAGR 2007-2010 1.7%
CAGR 2008-2010 2.1%
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
3,127
3,0793,101
3,169
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Trade Book Publishing
Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M)
2007 to 2008 -1.9%
2008 to 2009 0.5%
2009 to 2010 2.0%
CAGR 2007-2010 0.2%
CAGR 2008-2010 1.3%
Publishers’ Unit Sales (M)
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
15,048 14,734 14,812 15,135
2007 to 2008 -2.1%
2008 to 2009 0.5%
2009 to 2010 2.2%
CAGR 2007-2010 0.2%
CAGR 2008-2010 1.4%
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
2,282
2,238 2,2482,294
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Adult Trade
Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M)
2007 to 2008 -2.3%
2008 to 2009 0.9%
2009 to 2010 2.4%
CAGR 2007-2010 0.3%
CAGR 2008-2010 1.7%
Publishers’ Unit Sales (M)
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
11,39211,125
11,214 11,483
2007 to 2008 -2.3%
2008 to 2009 0.8%
2009 to 2010 2.4%
CAGR 2007-2010 0.3%
CAGR 2008-2010 1.6%
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
1,381 1,348 1,361 1,393
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Juvenile Trade
Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M)
2007 to 2008 -1.3%
2008 to 2009 -0.2%
2009 to 2010 1.5%
CAGR 2007-2010 0.0%
CAGR 2008-2010 0.7%
Publishers’ Unit Sales (M)
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
3,657 3,609 3,598 3,652
2007 to 2008 -1.3%
2008 to 2009 -0.3%
2009 to 2010 1.5%
CAGR 2007-2010 0.0%
CAGR 2008-2010 0.6%
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
901 889 888 901
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Religious Publishing
Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M)
2007 to 2008 -10.0%
2008 to 2009 -3.2%
2009 to 2010 3.2%
CAGR 2007-2010 -3.5%
CAGR 2008-2010 0.0%
Publishers’ Unit Sales (M)
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
2,575
2,3182,225
2,296
2007 to 2008 -10.0%
2008 to 2009 -4.0%
2009 to 2010 -3.2%
CAGR 2007-2010 -3.8%
CAGR 2008-2010 -0.5%
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
275
247 239 247
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Professional Publishing
Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M)
2007 to 2008 4.0%
2008 to 2009 3.4%
2009 to 2010 1.7%
CAGR 2007-2010 3.0%
CAGR 2008-2010 2.5%
Publishers’ Unit Sales (M)
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
8,358
8,696
8,9619,116
2007 to 2008 4.0%
2008 to 2009 3.0%
2009 to 2010 1.7%
CAGR 2007-2010 2.9%
CAGR 2008-2010 2.4%
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
246256
265269
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Scholarly Publishing
Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M)
2007 to 2008 3.9%
2008 to 2009 1.7%
2009 to 2010 1.7%
CAGR 2007-2010 2.4%
CAGR 2008-2010 1.7%
Publishers’ Unit Sales (M)
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
1,375
1,4281,446
1,470
2007 to 2008 3.9%
2008 to 2009 1.3%
2009 to 2010 1.7%
CAGR 2007-2010 2.3%
CAGR 2008-2010 1.5%
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
7275 76 77
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Elhi Publishing
Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M)
2007 to 2008 4.2%
2008 to 2009 3.5%
2009 to 2010 2.9%
CAGR 2007-2010 3.5%
CAGR 2008-2010 3.2%
Publishers’ Unit Sales (M)
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
7,056
7,373
7,606
7,827
2007 to 2008 4.5%
2008 to 2009 3.2%
2009 to 2010 2.9%
CAGR 2007-2010 3.5%
CAGR 2008-2010 3.0%
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
175182
189194
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College Publishing
Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M)
2007 to 2008 4.5%
2008 to 2009 4.2%
2009 to 2010 3.2%
CAGR 2007-2010 4.0%
CAGR 2008-2010 3.7%
Publishers’ Unit Sales (M)
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
5,524
5,772
5,9906,184
2007 to 2008 4.5%
2008 to 2009 3.8%
2009 to 2010 3.2%
CAGR 2007-2010 3.8%
CAGR 2008-2010 3.5%
2007 2008 2009 (proj.) 2010 (proj.)
78
81
84
87
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2008 sales data confirms “flat is the new up” Book publishing revenues will grow 1.8% in 2009 Sector performance will vary in 2009
Religious – decline less steep in 2009 Adult & juvenile trade – flat Scholarly – slight growth Professional, elhi and college – growth, but slowing
All sectors will grow – moderately – in 2010
Conclusions
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Publishing leaders expect return to growth in 2010 Recession as opportunity to become stronger:
Act on organization, process and business model changes Develop strategic marketing muscle Keep customers at the core Engage the social network for editorial and marketing Understand how digital evolution is changing markets
Essentials: innovation and focus on execution
Looking Ahead
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