bonterra energy corporate presentation
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TRANSCRIPT
TSX: BNE |
INVESTOR UPDATE APRIL 2012
TSX: BNE
TSX: BNE |
Certain statements contained in this Presentation include statements which contain words such as “anticipate”, “could”, “should”, “expect”, “seek”, “may”, “intend”, “likely”, “will”, “believe” and similar expressions, statements relating to matters that are not historical facts, and such statements of our beliefs, intentions and expectations about development, results and events which will or may occur in the future, constitute “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by us derived from our experience and perceptions. Forward-looking information in this Presentation includes, but is not limited to: expected cash provided by continuing operations; cash distributions; future capital expenditures, including the amount and nature thereof; oil and natural gas prices and demand; expansion and other development trends of the oil and gas industry; business strategy and outlook; expansion and growth of our business and operations; and maintenance of existing customer, supplier and partner relationships; supply channels; accounting policies; credit risks; and other such matters.
All such forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions and analyses made by us in light of our experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors we believe are appropriate in the circumstances. The risks, uncertainties, and assumptions are difficult to predict and may affect operations, and may include, without limitation: foreign exchange fluctuations; equipment and labour shortages and inflationary costs; general economic conditions; industry conditions; changes in applicable environmental, taxation and other laws and regulations as well as how such laws and regulations are interpreted and enforced; the ability of oil and natural gas trusts to raise capital; the effect of weather conditions on operations and facilities; the existence of operating risks; volatility of oil and natural gas prices; oil and gas product supply and demand; risks inherent in the ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations to meet current and future obligations; increased competition; stock market volatility; opportunities available to or pursued by us; and other factors, many of which are beyond our control. The foregoing factors are not exhaustive.
Actual results, performance or achievements could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, this forward-looking information and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking information will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits will be derived therefrom. Except as required by law, Bonterra disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
The forward-looking information contained herein is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
FORWARD LOOKING INFORMATION
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* Based on March 27, 2012 closing price of $51.43 ** Funds flow is not a recognized measure under IFRS. For these purposes, the Company defines funds flow as funds provided by operations including proceeds from sale of investments and investment income received excluding the effects of changes in non-cash operating working capital items, restricted cash and decommissioning expenditures settled.
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
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Shares issued 19.6 million Market capitalization $1.01 billion* Directors/employee ownership 25 percent Payout ratio based on funds flow 50 – 65 percent Current monthly dividend $0.26/share Current annualized yield 6.1 percent* Production profile 71% oil / 29% nat. gas
Cash netback (full year 2011) $42.47 Drilling inventory > 14 years Tax pools $402 million Tax horizon Beyond 2016 Debt (at 12/31/2011 including working capital) $122 million
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2012 Capital Development Budget $65 million
33 gross (23.83 net) wells are planned with 21 gross (13.33 net) wells targeting the main pool of the Pembina Cardium, most notably in the Blue Rapids and Berrymoor Cardium units and 11 gross (9.5 net) wells targeting the halo area of the Pembina Cardium and Willesden Green fields. Bonterra will also be drilling at least one new oil play using horizontal technology in 2012.
Production Levels 6,700 - 7,000 BOE per day Targets a 10 percent increase over 2011 levels
Operating Costs ~$15.00 per BOE Consistent with estimated 2011 costs
Payout Ratio 50 to 65 percent Anticipate fully funding capital development program from cash flow, exercise of stock options, sale of investments and bank borrowing facility.
Debt 1.0:1 to 1.5:1 range Sustainable capital program
2012 GUIDANCE
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Sensitivity Analysis(1) (estimate for 2012) Cash Flow Cash Flow
Per Share (2)
U.S. $1.00 per barrel $1,300,000 $0.066
Canadian $0.10 per MCF $360,000 $0.018
Change of Canadian $0.01 / U.S. $ exchange rate $930,000 $0.048
(1) Based on Sproule Proved Developed Producing production of 5,553 BOE per day (2) Based on year end outstanding common shares of 19,571,316
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2011 HIGHLIGHTS • Maintained focus on providing investors with continued growth on a per
share basis, sustainable pace of development and monthly income through its dividend policy.
• Increased dividends twice in 2011 and paid out $3.04 per share, a 22% increase compared with 2010.
• Horizontal drill success in 2011 with 21 gross (15.3 net) operated Cardium horizontal wells drilled in the Halo areas of the Pembina and Willesden Green Fields, 4 gross (0.86 net) non-operated Cardium horizontal wells in the main Pembina pool and 1 gross (0.13 net) non-operated horizontal well in southeast SK, all with a 100% success rate.
• Average daily production increased by 12.3 percent to a record 6,322 BOE/day for 2011 compared to 2010. The company also had record daily production of 6,679 BOE per day in Q4 2011, an increase of 9.9 percent compared to Q4 2010.
• Reserve Life Index (P+P) of 16.9 years is one of the highest among conventional producers.
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FINANCIAL RESULTS Highlights (000s except per share amounts)
Year 2011
Year 2010
Year 2009(2)
Funds Flow(1) $101,988 $74,385 $69,975
Per share – basic $5.27 $3.95 $3.89
Payout ratio 58% 64% 44%
Cash flow from operations $97,409 $66,238 $38,893
Per share - basic $5.04 $3.52 $2.16
Payout ratio 61% 72% 79%
Net earnings 43,608 39,954 68,563
Per share - basic 2.25 2.12 3.81
Capital expenditures and acquisitions (net of dispositions) 62,686 70,680 5,640
Working capital deficiency $51,576 $17,905 $10,162
Long-term debt $69,916 $85,386 $59,823
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(1) Funds flow is not a recognized measure under IFRS. For these purposes, the Company defines funds flow as funds provided by operations including proceeds from sale of investments and investment income received excluding the effects of changes in non-cash working capital items, restricted cash, investment tax credit receivable and decommissioning expenditures settled.
(2) The comparative highlights for 2009 are under Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) prior to the adoption of IFRS. (3) At December 31, 2010, long-term debt includes bank debt and subordinated promissory note.
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HISTORY OF DIVIDEND GROWTH
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2011
Average Price $106 per barrel WTI
Differential +$3 to -$5
Quality Adjustment -$4
Net to Bonterra $97 to $105
OIL PRICES: WTI VS. EDMONTON PAR
2012
Average Price $106 per barrel WTI
Differential -$15 to -$20
Quality Adjustment -$4
Net to Bonterra $82 to $87
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$100,000 Investment: Bonterra Investment Bank Investment
Dividend Rate 6.1% $6,100 Interest Rate 1.25% $1,250
AB Tax Rate 19% AB Tax Rate 39.5%
After Tax Income $4,941 After Tax Income $756
Net Return 4.9% Net Return 0.76%
Bonterra’s current tax pools of $402 million extend its tax horizon past 2016 maximizing returns
to shareholders.
SUPERIOR BEFORE & AFTER TAX RETURNS
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$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00$40.00$50.00$60.00$70.00$80.00$90.00
1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mar-12
Combined Share Price Cumulative Dist./Div.
SHAREHOLDER VALUE
$75.85
$24.42
$51.43
* Based on March 26, 2012 closing price of $51.43
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
12.7%
14.9%
INCREASING SHAREHOLDER VALUE Production per Share
(BOE per share)
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Production Profile
29% Natural Gas
71% Oil/NGLs
Gross Production (BOE – Year Over Year Growth)
10.6%
4.4%
3.0%
12.3%
80.0%
-1.9%
2.4%
14.4%
1,766
3,179 3,194 3,655
4,042 4,218 4,346 4,994
5,628 6,322
3,118
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oil/Liquids Natural Gas
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
81.7%
INCREASING SHAREHOLDER VALUE Reserves per Share
(BOE per share) (Proved plus Probable)
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26% Natural Gas
74% Oil/NGLs
Gross Reserves (MBOE - Proved plus Probable – Year Over Year Growth)
Reserves Profile (Proved plus Probable)
14.3%
21.1%
10.9%
19.3%
10.9%
3.2%
14.7%
9.9%
14,899
8,201
31,241 27,321
16,529
26,476
19,711 23,870
35,824 39,371
Proved Probable
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
4.6%
41,149
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PEMBINA CARDIUM
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BONTERRA LAND
Pembina Cardium
Halo Area
Gross Sections 161 28.5
Net Sections 118 24.4
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CARDIUM HORIZONTAL PRODUCTION
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Well Economics (based on Sproule Jan. 31, 2012 price forecast: Oil - $96.87; Natural gas - $3.16 and NGLs - $70.07)
CapEx: $2.7 million (ave.) 10% NPV BT: $4.2 million
30 Day Initial Production: 250 BOE per day Rate of Return 136 percent
First Year Ave. Production: 121 BOE per day Payout: 9.6 months
Reserves: 175 MBOE
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MAIN POOL DEVELOPMENT – ORIGINAL OIL IN PLACE
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MAIN POOL DEVELOPMENT – CURRENT RECOVERY FACTOR
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SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE
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MAIN POOL PERFORMANCE
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100
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Cum
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Prod
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bl)
Month
Main Pool Cardium Hz Performance vs. Sproule 2P Type Curve (125,000 Bbl)
Sproule 2P Type Curve 125,000 Bbl Main Pool Cardium Hz Wells Bonterra Interest Wells
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LARGE OPPORTUNITY SET Gross undrilled locations: Inventory of new locations currently identified (subject to commodity prices and the terms of the Alberta royalty plan):
Booked Horizontal Cardium 110 Bonterra has 110 gross (77.3 Net) locations booked. This represents Bonterra’s current three-year capital program.
Unbooked Potential Horizontal Cardium 390 Bonterra has a maximum of 390 gross (273 net) additional horizontal locations based on four wells per section. The technical and economically feasible number of locations has yet to be determined.
Other: 25 Including Edmonton Sand, Gething, Notikewin, Banff and Upper and Lower Shaunavon.
Greater than 14 year drilling inventory
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GROWTH
• Consistently provides investors with production and reserves growth on both a total and per share basis.
• 2012 capital development program of $65 million will mainly continue to pursue development of our significant Cardium light oil play that will consist of an aggressive multi-well horizontal drilling program in the main Pembina Cardium pool.
• Targeting 10% production growth in 2012 with production for the year estimated at 6,700 to 7,000 BOE per day.
PERFORMANCE
• Provides investors with superior returns and paid out $3.04 per share in 2011. • Current monthly dividend of $0.26 per share ($3.12 annualized). • Current annualized yield of ~6.1%. • $402 million in tax pools extend the Company’s tax horizon beyond 2016.
SUSTAINABILITY
• Approximately 161 gross (118 net) Cardium sections including 28.5 gross (24.4 net) in the halo area.
• Corporate production profile of 73% light oil/liquids and 27% natural gas (mainly solution gas) targeted in 2012.
• Drilling inventory in excess of 14 years.
THE VALUE OF BONTERRA
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901, 1015 – 4th Street SW Calgary, AB T2R 1J4 Telephone: (403) 262-5307 Fax: (403) 265-7488
Website: www.bonterraenergy.com