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Biophysical control of ecosystem services

Robert DunfordEnvironmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

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What is OpenNESS?

•Operationalization of natural capital and ecosystem services: from concepts to real-world applications.•EU contribution: 9 M€•Coordinated by SYKE (Finnish Environmental Institute)•Transdisciplinary consortium of 35 Partners•EU FP7 project, from December 2012 to May 2017

•Still very much in the preparation stage

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Who is involved?

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What will OpenNESS do?

•Our goal is to critically examine the potential of the concepts of ES and NC to inform sustainable land, water and urban management at different locales and scales, and across different sectors

•Operationalization – embedding into practice – how can decision makers, practitioners and other stakeholders really use these concepts.

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How?•1: Concepts of ES & NC•2: Regulatory frameworks•3: Biophysical methods•4: Valuation methods•5: Case studies

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Iterative approach•Work streams that interact throughout project

• Reviews & Methods• Case studies

•Recursively interact at cross-work package workshops

• Setting up the case studies• Review existing methods and define

research questions

• Workshop 1: Match problems to methods

• Development of methods frameworks• Testing of methods in case studies

• Workshop 2: Review interim results• Method refinement• Further method testing in case studies

• Workshop 3: Review near-final results

• Final refinement• Final methods and frameworks• Final application• Overall lessons learned

• Recursively interact

Methods Case Studies

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Case-study focus•Multiple locales•Multiple sectors•Multiple scales•Multiple times

•Practical real-world application

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Biophysical control of ecosystem services

•OpenNESS WP3•Aim: To develop and refine approaches for mapping and modelling the biophysical control of ES which can be used to assess the effectiveness of mechanisms, instruments and best management practices for sustaining ES delivery in the face of multiple uncertain drivers whilst conserving biodiversity.

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Task 3.1: Analyse the contribution of NC stocks to ES flows

Task 3.1: Analyse the contribution of NC stocks to ES flowsLiterature review on linkages between biodiversity and

ES:

Identification of possible thresholds where further biodiversity loss would severely compromise ecosystem functioning and ES delivery.

Database to summarise the outcomes from the review.

Operational classification system of different types of NC–ES relationships.

Documentation of the dominant ES in each of the case studies, the functions which support those services and the biodiversity that underpins those functions.

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CasestudiesCase

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Example: BESAFE methodology•Simple, pragmatic approach to systematic

literature review

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Example: BESAFE literature review•Carbon sequestration

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CasestudiesCase

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Example: BESAFE network•Carbon sequestration

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Task 3.2: Develop methods for investigating the effects of multiple drivers on ES supply

Task 3.2: Develop methods for investigating the effects of multiple drivers on ES supply

Development and/or refinement of spatially-explicit methods/models:

Build on existing approaches and models were possible.

Range of methods/models for case studies depending on level of data availability and expert knowledge (includes BBNs to link with other WPs).

Broadscale context provided by global and European models, including trade-offs between ES provision in Europe and the rest of the world.

All models will be used to analyse the effects of multiple drivers on ES supply and quantify biophysical trade-offs between different ES.

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CasestudiesCase

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Example: CLIMSAVE•FP7 project•5 years•Ends Oct 2013

•4 emissions scenarios•5 GCMs•3 levels of climatesensitivity

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CasestudiesCase

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Example: CLIMSAVE multi-sectoral

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CasestudiesCase

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Example: CLIMSAVE socio-economic futures

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CasestudiesCase

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Example: CLIMSAVE interconnected meta-models

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CasestudiesCase

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Example: CLIMSAVE Ecosystem Services•Food provision•Timber supply•Water availability•Days for skiing•Potential climate suitability for hunting/pollinator/ charismaticspecies etc.

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CasestudiesCase

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Example: PEERESTIMAP•The Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) for Europe classifies ecosystems in three classes of accessibility and three classes of recreation potential

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CasestudiesCase

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Example: PEERESTIMAP•Relative pollinator abundance across Europe

•http://www.peer.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/publications/PEER_report_4_phase_2.pdf

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DIMO (dynamic plant species dispersal model).SMALLSTEPS (habitat connectivity).

Maxent Landscape Habitat distribution.

Conefor Sensinode 2.2 (connectivity) and GUIDOS (landscape level indicators of structure).

LARCH, ECI Plan-it and Stacking tool (models/tools for assessing ES in relation to Green Infrastructure).

GREENINFRA

BioScore (cost-effective assessment of policy impact on biodiversity using species sensitivity scores).

Urban climate mapping & vegetation effectsHydrological models for studying flood protection servicesSITE (land use change)CLUE (land use change)

SPECIES (broadscale and landscape species suitability, distribution and vulnerability).

PROPS (statistical chance of occurrence of plant species and vegetation types).METAPHOR shaking windows (metapopulation analysis under climate change).SMART2 (dynamic soil model of the nutrient cycle).

GREEN (Geospatial Regression Equation for European Nutrient losses; terrestrial and aquatic retention of nutrients and its monetary valuation).

SUMO2 (dynamic vegetation succession and carbon sequestration model).Yasso07 / GAYA (dynamic soil carbon models).

IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment).GLOBIO (Global Biodiversity Model).

CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform (integrated European models covering a range of ES).

ESTIMAP ES Mapping Tool for the European scale (a suite of ES sub-models for pollination, coastal protection, recreation and water purification).

Biome-BGC (a terrestrial ecosystem model which quantifies several key indicators for ES, e.g. carbon sequestration, water retention, etc).

InVEST2.1 (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs).

Methodology for spatial mapping of ES using CORINE, biotope data (SutiGIS), EUNIS habitat classification data, and biodiversity databases.

EEA Land and Ecosystem Accounting Framework and its extension using expert-based mapping.

BBNs Bayesian Belief Networks.

STMs State-and-transition models.

WOFOST (WOrld FOod Studies; A process-based model for the quantitative analysis of the growth and production of annual field crops).

FSSIM (a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies).

CAPSIS (a platform of several forest models, including Fagacae (even-aged oak forests); Samsarra (mixed uneven-aged mountain forests); Oak-Pine (mixed Sessile oak-Scots pine forests); Sylvestris (even-aged Scots pine forests)).

Existing models –what do they capture

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What is missing?•Provisioning•Supporting•Regulating•Social/Cultural

•Models for now?•Models for the future?•Scale/Resolution etc. to match real stakeholder needs?

OpenNESS Database•Consolidate existingknowledge•Model details:

• Ecosystem services• Direct & proxy• Approach• Scale• Temporal Resolution• Data requirements

•Link to case studies

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CasestudiesCase

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Task 3.3: Comparing ES supply with biodiversity conservation objectives to inform management

Task 3.3: Comparing ES supply with biodiversity conservation objectives to inform management Comparison of outputs from Task 3.2 with current environmental

objectives and policy targets to identify synergies and conflicts and to prioritise investments in NC.

Assessment of the effectiveness of various mechanisms and instruments, such as tradeable permits and regulatory price signals, for achieving the dual goals of sustainable ES flows and biodiversity conservation.

Assessment of the potential of land and ecosystem accounting for supporting the sustainable management of ES.

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CasestudiesCase

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Policy – ES relationships•Use policy targets to test hypotheses 1) that reaching policy targets achieves greater delivery of Ecosystem services

2) that the way we measure ecosystem function is sufficient to measure status

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CasestudiesCase

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Informing policy•Matching policy drivers with ecosystem targets

Sustainable Unsustainable ring ring

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Task 3.4: Guidelines for application within the WP5 case studies

Task 3.4: Guidelines for application within the WP5 case studies Describes the applicability, benefits and limitations (including

uncertainty) of each method for the different ES problem types tested within WP5.

Which methods are appropriate for application for different decision-making contexts, spatial and temporal scales and the availability of data/expert knowledge.

Will be developed, tested and refined iteratively with the case studies over the course of the project.

Links to the other WPs.

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CasestudiesCase

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Conclusions•OpenNESS: aim to critically evaluate the use of Natural Capital and ecosystem service concepts in the “real-world”.•Runs December 2012 to May 2017 so in planning stage•Will look at biophysical control of ecosystem approaches through literature review and method/model collation …•… with aim of linking to real-world case studies.•Lots of methods/models within the consortium•Interested in any additional models that can help contribute to this.

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Thank you for your time

Robert DunfordRobert.Dunford@OUCE.ox.ac.uk

Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

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CasestudiesCase

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OpenNESS Database – Relevant Literature

OpenNESS Database – Model Outputs

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CasestudiesCase

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OpenNESS Database – Modelling approach

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OpenNESS Database – Spatial Scale

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CasestudiesCase

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OpenNESS Database – Data needs