bay area apartment association & triad research & consulting, inc. 17 th annual tampa bay...
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Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.
17th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum
“The Tampa Bay Rental Multi-Family Market : Today and in The Future”
Tampa Westshore Marriott HotelNovember 30th , 2011
Sponsored by:
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Oct 2011
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,000
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
MULTIFAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Oct-11
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
OCCUPANCY TRENDS
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
triad
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
RENTAL PRICING TRENDS
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
2010 TAMPA BAY AREAPIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT
UC/Leasing
2011
Planned –
2012 – 2013
Proposed –
ON-HOLD
MARKET Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units
Hills 13 3,552 15 2,992 3 640
Pinellas 4 845 3 672 1 326
Pasco 4 930 4 965 2 540
Polk 1 270 0 0 0 0
Manatee 1 272 5 882 2 772
Sarasota 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bay Area 23 5,869 27 5,11 13 2,758
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
NEW DYNAMICS OF THE METHODOLOGIES
OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND
SUPPLY LACK OF SUPPLY – LIMITED NEW CONSTRUCTION - CONTINUED SHIFT FROM OWNERSHIP TO RENTAL HOUSING
INCOMES ADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) – SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS
CONSUMERS ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – INCOME DRIVEN CHOICES – - BETTER LOCATIONS – LESS COMMUTING – URBAN/SUBURBAN
THEORY METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, & JOB GROWTH NOW OUT,. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY
CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE & SHIFTING CONSUMER CHOICES.
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
BAY AREA MULTIFAMILY TRENDSHIL VACANT LAND OPPS IN BRANDON & SOUTH COUNTY – ACTIVE NEW CONS
IN BRANDON & WESTSHORE & TAMPA PALMS & DOWNTOWN – COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW
PIN ONLY CONS IN GATEWAY & URBAN ST PETE – RESTABILIZING, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW - LIMITED NEW CONS POTENTIAL
PAS ONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54/56 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF DISTRESSED DRI’s – OPP IN MID COUNTY & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW
POL LAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME DUE LOW OCC & NEGATIVE RENT GROWTH
MAN LAND AVAIL & DEMAND SUPPORTS FUTURE DEV – BENEFIT FROM SOUTHWARD HILLS EXPANSION & PINELLAS BUILDOUT IN THE FUTURE – ACTIVITY IN LWR ATTHIS TIME – MARKET RECOVERY STRONG
SAR NEW CONST ALL BUT STOPPED – REVS IN RECOVERY – LAND EXPENSIVE & MOST ACTIVITY IN ACQUISITIONS – OCC & RENT GROWTH MODERATE
GLOBAL TRENDS NEW CONST SLOWED BY FINANCING - DEMAND GROWING DUE TO DISTRESS SF & ECONOMIC TIMES - RECOVERY TO 94%-95% HAPPENING NOW – REGION STRONGER THAN MOST OF FLORIDA - FINANCING THE CHALLENGE – PLAYERS W/$$ WILL PLAY – “VULTURE CAPITALISTS” ARE CIRCLING OVERHEAD FOR ACQ