Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.

19th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

“Let the Good Times Roll

Buy It…Build It…or Rehab It”Tampa Westshore Marriott Hotel

November 20th , 2013Sponsored by:

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS

2008 2009 2010Oct. 2011 Aug. 2012 Aug. 2013

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT TRENDS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

MULTIFAMILY PERMIT TRENDS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

OCCUPANCY TRENDS

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

RENTAL PRICING TRENDS

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

2013 TAMPA BAY AREAPIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT

UC/Leasing Planned/Proposed

2012 2013 2012 – 2013 2013 – 2014

MARKET Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units

Hills 11 3,333 13 2,829 2 3,968 12 3,417

Pinellas 3 639 12 2,172 11 2,998 9 2,404

Pasco 2 558 4 856 7 2,403 5 1,674

Polk 0 0 0 0 1 240 0 0

Manatee 1 272 2 567 7 1,977 3 1,169

Sarasota 0 0 1 326 4 998 2 670

Bay Area 17 4,802 32 6,750 32 12,584 31 9,334

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

HILLSBOROUGH PIPELINE

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

PINELLAS PIPELINE

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

PASCO PIPELINE

1 2

3 4 1

3

2

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

MANATEE/SARASOTA PIPELINE

1

3

2

2 2

1

3

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND

NEW DYNAMICS OF THE METHODOLOGIES

OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND

SUPPLY SUPPLY REMAINS UNBALANCED COMPARED TO DEMAND – LIMITED NEW CONSTRUCTION PICKING UP - CONTINUED SHIFT FROM OWNERSHIP TO RENTAL HOUSING FOR LIFESTYLE & CONSUMER CHOICE – BAY AREA NEEDING 3K TO 4K PER YEAR

INCOMES ADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) – SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS – RENTING MORE AFFORD THAN OWNERSHIP

CONSUMERS ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – INCOME DRIVEN CHOICES – - BETTER LOCATIONS – LESS COMMUTING – URBAN/SUBURBAN – LIFESTYLE CHOICES

THEORY METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, & JOB GROWTH NOW OUT,. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY

CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE & SHIFTING CONSUMER CHOICES.

Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.

BAY AREA MULTIFAMILY TRENDSHIL SUBURBAN LAND OPPS IN BRANDON, WESTCHASE, WESTSHORE & DOWNTOWN ACTIVE NEW CONS WESTSHORE. BRANDON & WESTSHORE & \DOWNTOWN – COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW

PIN CONS IN GATEWAY, CARRILON & URBAN ST PETE – MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW - URBAN & URBAN/SUBURBAN MOST ACTIVE

PAS ONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF DISTRESSED DRI’s – OPP IN MID COUNTY & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW, AS LAND DIMINISHES MOVEMENT NORTH

POL LAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME DUE LOWER OCC & FINANCING DIFFICULTIES

MAN LAND AVAIL & DEMAND SUPPORTS FUTURE DEV – BENEFIT FROM SOUTHWARD HILLS EXPANSION & PINELLAS BUILDOUT IN THE FUTURE – CONS ACTIVITY IN LWR & I-75 AT THIS TIME – MARKET RECOVERY STRONG

SAR NEW CONST FINALLY RETURNING DWNTWN & I-75 CORRIDOR – MARKET NOW IN RECOVERY – LAND EXPENSIVE – OCC & RENT GROWTH VERY STRONG

GLOBAL TRENDS NEW CONST RETURNING STRONGLY – DEMAND IS STILL CONTINUING TO GROW DUE TO HOUSING SHIFTS & ECONOMIC TIMES - OCC RECOVERY TO 95%-97% & ANNUAL RENTAL REVUEW GROWTH HAPPENING NOW – REGION STRONGER THAN MOST OF FLORIDA - GOOD OPPORTUNITIES FOR 24-48 MONTHS – MOSTLY URBAN & STRONG SUBURBAN.

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

Sponsored by:

19th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.