Water security and climate change adaptation: Experiences from BangladeshExperiences from Bangladesh

Giasuddin Ahmed ChoudhuryExecutive Director, CEGIS

ChinaChina

Nepal Bhutan

India

Bangladesh

Bangladesh : Most vulnerable country due to climate change

Vulnerability due to Natural DisastersNatural Disasters

•Erosion/Sedimentation•Erosion/Sedimentation

•Water logging

•TornadoesDue to climate change, the intensity of all these •Earthquake

•Tsunami

disasters will increase.

Water Management Systems in Bangladesh

Teesta Barrage Irrigation Project

• 600+ water management systems• 600+ water management systems

• 6 million ha under flood protection

• 4.5 million ha under both surface & ground water irrigationDrainage

Flood Control

Legend

Flood Control & DrainageFlood Control

Flood, Drainage & IrrigationIrrigation & DrainageIrrigation

Food Security

• National food production increased but population still live with low level of nutrition

•30% of the population consumes fewer than 1800 kcal per day (FAO 2005)(FAO, 2005) 

• Around 60% of people live below the food based poverty line

Category of Household Caloric Poverty rateRural 59.42Urban 58.45Total 59.12Source: Razzaque and Raihan, 2007

Water Security in Bangladesh

Water security issues: Ganges River in dry season at Hardinge Bridge

Reduced transboundary river flows

Massive sedimentation and river dyingMassive sedimentation and river dying

Occurrence of Arsenic in ground water

Draw downing of ground water table Draw downing of ground water table

Deteriorating water qualitySoil salinity during 1997

Salinity intrusion in the coastal belts

Power Security

Power plants 48 nos.Installed capacity 5823MW/day

Load shading for DSM

Electricity generate (average) 4000MW/dayElectricity demand 5000-6000MW/dayPresent demand supply gap 1000-2000MW/dayPresent demand supply gap 1000 2000MW/dayProjected demand by 2014 9000MW

Installed capacity: Plant Type

48%

4%5%

25%

Demand Supply Gap

6000700080009000

10000

W

18%

10002000300040005000

J 09 D 09 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014

MW

Hydro Steam TurbineGas Turbime Combined CycleDiesel

June 09 Dec 09 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY2013 FY 2014

Max. Demand Considering DSM Depandable Capacity (with Gas Crisis)Max. Demand-Suply Gap (with Gas crisis)

Future Challenges

120140 Population Growth

Due to rapid urbanization, population in towns and cities is expected to rise by

80100120

and cities is expected to rise by 

‐ 40% in 2025 204060

‐ 60% in 20500

20

1998

2005

2015

2025

2035

2045

In Rural areas population

A burgeoning population of

Rural UrbanIn Rural areas population will be  108 million in 2025 & 88 m in 2050

A burgeoning population of 150 million expected to rise to

In urban area population  181 million by 2025

224 million by 2050

will be 73 m in 2025 & 136 m in 2050

Source: NWMP

10.0

b ll

Land Use

8.0Urban area will increase from 11% to 15% in 2025

4.0

6.0

Forest & Fisheries Habitat will increase

2.0

will increase

Agricultural land will ‐

1995 2025 2050decrease from 59% to 48%

P it i lt l l dRiver & waterbodies Forest & Mangrove

Urban and Other Agriculture

Per capita agricultural land will decrease from 0.68ha to 0 39ha

Predicted areas in million hectares

Urban and Other Agriculture to 0.39ha

Source: NWMP

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Rice 30.37 33.96 36.95 38.94 40.21Wheat 2.26 2.90 3.61 4.44 5.35

Crop production (million ton)Crop Name Projected crop production 

t t f t f dPulses 0.41 0.39 0.33 0.31 0.33Oilseeds 0.39 0.40 0.39 0.34 0.33Spices 0.65 1.08 1.59 2.21 2.92Potato 3.90 5.65 7.68 10.02 12.65Vegetables (W&S) 3.41 5.43 7.85 10.68 13.91Sugarcane 7 67 8 23 8 82 9 56 10 33

to meet future food requirement

Sugarcane 7.67 8.23 8.82 9.56 10.33Jute 0.58 0.35 0.28 0.30 0.31Fruits 1.97 2.38 2.83 3.32 3.85

45

30

35

40

n)

Rice

Wheat

20

25

30

duction (m

illion to

Wheat

Pulses

Oilseeds

Spices

Potato

10

15

Crop

 pro

Vegetables (W&S)

Sugarcane

Jute

Fruits

0

5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Coastal Flooding with Sea Level Rise<1m

Future Climate Change Impacts: Land and waterWater security issues:

•Landward migration of salinity front due to SLR

Water security issues:

• More than 50% of the coastal zone will be affected by climate change induced salinity intrusion land inundation

•SLR will change the di i d isedimentation and erosion 

pattern in the major rivers

Landward migration of Salinity front (km)Name of River system SLR Salinity front

32cm 88cmGorai‐Passur‐Rupsha System 1.8 9 1 ppt lineI h i J S 4 5 6 5 10 liIchamati‐Jamuna System 4.5 6.5 10 ppt lineShalagang System 7.1 8.7 10 ppt lineSibsha System 7.1 16.9 15 ppt line

Future Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture

• The suitability of T‐Amanwill be reduced by 12% due

Land suitability (%) for T‐Aman under different SLR conditionScenarios Highly 

SuitableSuitable Moderatel

y suitableNot suitable

Base 0 84 14 2will be reduced by 12% due to 88cm SLR

Base 0 84 14 232cm SLR 0 60 24 1688cm SLR 0 12 57 31

• The suitability of Boro rice will be reduced from 36% to 

Land suitability (%) for Boro under different SLR conditionScenarios Highly 

SuitableSuitable Moderatel

y suitableNot suitable

will be reduced from 36% to6% due to 88cm SLR Base 0 36 43 11

32cm SLR 0 6 37 57

88cm SLR 0 6 33 61

Future Climate Change Impacts: Socio‐economic system

• Livelihoods depend on natural resources arevulnerable to Climate change

y

• Income potentials of Farmers will decreasedue to decrease of land use suitability for riceproductionp• National food security will be worsened• Shrinkage of drinking water source and itsavailability• The numbers of coastal poor will increaseUlti t l th ti l t t d GDP ill b• Ultimately the national targeted GDP will be

difficult to achieved• Outmigration from coastal zones will creategpressure on capital and other large cities

Challenges in Achieving Water and Food Security under Climate Change Scenario

• Increasing population • Gender equity

Secu ty u de C ate C a ge Sce a o

Gender equity• Ensuring water and food security• Rapid urbanizationp• Reliable power generation and supply• Transboundary water sharing and y g

management• Natural resources management• Natural hazard and risk management• Political commitments• International co‐operation 

Strategy & Planning

Climate Change StrategyBangladesh vision is to eradicate poverty and achieve

economic and social well-being for her people

Bangladesh adapted a pro-poor, climate resilient and low carbon development strategyp gy

Strategy based on four building blocks of Bali Action PlPlan:

• Adaptation to climate change• Mitigation• Mitigation• Technology transfer• Adequate and timely flow of funds for investmentAdequate and timely flow of funds for investment

Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy                 d A i Pl (2009)and Action Plan (2009)

• Six pillars or broad areas of intervention:p

Food security ComprehensiveFood security, social protection 

and health

Comprehensive disaster 

managementInfrastructure

Research and  Mitigation and low  Capacity buildingknowledge management

carbon development

Capacity building and institutional

Planning Approach for Climate Change Adaptation: Water & food Security 

• Initiatives for IWRM andIntegrated Farming focusing onclimate change impacts

• Rationalization and planningRationalization and planningfor infrastructures and urbandevelopment resilient toclimate change

Integrated Farming (Rice, fish, poultry, vegetable

climate change

• Investment in research onl h ( lclimate change stress (salinity,inundation) tolerant variety ofcrops

Vegetable garden on floating bed Cage culture of fish

Planning Approach for Climate Change Adaptation: Water & food Security 

• Rationalization of investment programs considering future climate change issues

Solar Panel on roof‐ Common in Rural Bangladesh

climate change issues

• Investment in renewable energy resources, reliable power generation and supply

• Regional collaboration for hydro‐electric power generation

• Improved warning system and community based dissemination• Awareness building

Community based warning system

Immediate impact Results

Climate Change Impact Adaptation Measures 

Interventions needed

1. Cyclones –i d Hi h t Early Warning systems

Immediate impact Results

dapt

atio

n

Interventions needed

increased frequencyand severity

Higher storm surgesHigher wind speed

Early Warning systems Cyclone shelters and

Killas

ity-

base

d ad

Early warning systems Improved O&M of

b k tAR

MIN

G

le/C

omm

un

2. Heavier more erraticrainfall in GBM

Higher river flowsDrainage

embankments Upgrading of flood

protection embankments/drainageLO

BA

L W

A

he v

ulne

rab

rainfall in GBM basins inthe monsoon season

gcongestionFlooding in rural /urban areas

embankments/drainage systems Raising some roads and

railway tracks

GL

tect

ion

for

t

season railway tracks Flood proofing Improved crops and

cropping systems Soci

al p

rot

Immediate impact Results Interventions needed

Climate Change Impact Adaptation Measures 

3 L Improved irrigation and

Immediate impact Results Interventions needed

adap

tati

on

3. Lower more erratic rainfallat other times

Droughts and scarcityof drinking water

Improved irrigation andwater management Provision of drinking water Improved crops and G

nity

-bas

ed a

at other times cropping systems

WA

RM

ING

ble/

Com

mu

4 Melting of

Higher river flows in short tomedium term

GLO

BA

L W

the

vuln

era

4. Melting of Himalayan glaciers

and then reducedflows and i d li

Exacerbates impacts of 2 and 5

G

rote

ctio

n fo

r

increased saline intrusion

Soci

al p

r

Climate Change Impact Adaptation Measures 

Improved O&M and upgrading of coastal

Immediate impact Results

dapt

atio

nInterventions needed

5 Sea level rise

Coastal embankmentsovertopped Saline

upgrading of coastal embankments and polders Improved crops and G

nit

y-ba

sed

ad

5. Sea level rise intrusioninto rivers and groundwater

cropping systems Provision of potable

drinking waterP ibl i d i lW

AR

MIN

G

ble/

Com

mun

Possible industrial relocation

Health education/GLO

BA

L W

the

vuln

erab

6. Warmer and more humid

Increased prevalence ofdisease and

Health education/ awareness Immunization Other prevention

G

otec

tion

for

t

weather disease and disease vectors programmes

Drinking water and sanitation So

cial

pro

GWP and added value of GWP Bangladesh in the interventions

GWP’s Role and Responsibilities

• Development of networking for internationalDevelopment of networking for international cooperation

• Assisting preparation of Climate changeAssisting preparation of Climate change adaptation and impact management framework 

• Knowledge dissemination and experience sharing• Knowledge dissemination and experience sharing• Capacity building of climate change impact managersmanagers

GWP & BWP Initiatives : Partnership Building and Networking

• A kick‐off Workshop held back to back with the

and Networking

back to back with the  Regional Council Meeting of GWP‐South Asia in N b 2008 i NNovember 2008 in New Delhi.

• Second workshop was h ld 4 J 2009 iheld on 4 January 2009 in Dhaka to get feedback on the project design and its p j gimplementation.

GWP & BWP Initiatives : International Cooperation

• Sharing the regional strategy (South Asia perspective) in Hanoi Dialogue on Adaptation toperspective) in Hanoi Dialogue on Adaptation to climate change for Land and Water Management

• South Asia perspectives on adaptation to climate change reflected in Nairobi Statement

BWP & CEGIS Jointly Organised Workshop on Climate Change AdaptationClimate Change Adaptation

•Dialogue onDialogue on  Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and g gyAction Plan to stakeholders

•Awareness building

Minister of Water Resources; Chief Commissioner, RTI Commission; Director General, Bangladesh Water Development Board; Chairman, BWP; Vice Chairman, BWP; Executive Director, CEGIS are seen in the picture participating the workshop 

•Developing network between GO and NGO

GWP & BWP Initiatives:  Training and C it B ildi

• Training and Capacity building for implementing

Capacity Building

Training and Capacity building for implementing IMRM for national level Govt. and NGO Water Resources Managers and Plannersg

• Arranging ToT course for building trainers to manage natural resources under climate changemanage natural resources under climate change perspective

• Conducting action research on multidisciplinaryConducting action research on multidisciplinary natural resources issues under climate change scenarios

Recommendation

• Continuing  training on IWRM and action research for better resource managementresearch for better resource management

• Playing active role in dissemination to all stake holdersholders 

• Supporting the national activitiesSt th i th t ki th ll• Strengthening the networking among the all stakeholdersP ti i l d i t ti l• Promoting regional and international cooperation

Thank YouThank You