auto sector update, july 2013

7/27/2019 Auto Sector Update, July 2013

1/13

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Automotive volumes continued to remain lackluster in July 2013, broadly in-line with

expectations, impacted by slowdown in economic activity and negative consumer

sentiments. While the severe down turn in medium and heavy commercial vehicle

(MHCV), passenger car (PC) and motorcycle segments continued, the utility vehicle

(UV) and light commercial vehicle (LCV) segments too are witnessing sluggish

demand since the beginning of FY2014. The tractor segment however, witnessed a

strong growth due to normal monsoon. Bajaj Auto, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata

Motors registered significant decline in volumes during the month. Going ahead, we

expect the volume decline to continue in 2QFY2014 as well and are now pinning

our hopes on the festival season for any reversal in the current trend of downturn.

Tata Motors (TTMT) continued reporting disappointing sales performance as thecommercial vehicle (CV) and passenger vehicle (PV) segments maintained their

downwards trajectory. Total volumes posted a significant decline of 30% yoy (2.4%

mom) with CV and PV segments registering a sharp decline of 14.2% and 57.2%

yoy respectively. Exports too registered a decline of 12.1% yoy during the month.

Ashok Leyland (AL) reported better-than-expected volumes with total sales posting astrong growth of 25.4% mom; albeit on a low base of last month. However on a yoy

basis, volumes continue to be impacted by the prevailing slowdown in the medium

and heavy commercial vehicle segment (down 10.4% yoy) which led to a 10.7% yoy

decline in total volumes.

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) registered an in-line volume growth of 1.3% yoy (down 1.4%mom) led by a healthy volume growth of 5.8% yoy (down 2.4% mom) in thedomestic market. Exports however continued its poor run and witnessed a significant

decline of 27.3% yoy (up 9.4% mom on a low base) due to macroeconomic

uncertainty in key export markets. While sales in the Mini segment surged 15.8% yoy

(7.3% mom) led by a gradual uptick in demand for petrol cars, the super compact

segment registered a strong growth of 33.6% yoy (21.5% mom) despite competition

from HondasAmaze.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) reported weak volumes primarily due to the poorperformance of the automotive segment which remains impacted due to demand

slowdown, rising competition and also due to the increase in excise duty. Total

volumes declined sharply by 12.6% yoy (15.6% mom) as the automotive segment

fell by a significant 21.2% yoy (2.6% mom). However, the tractor segment registereda strong growth of 11.8% yoy driven by a 14.7% yoy growth in domestic volumes.

The production cuts announced by the company at the automotive plants in July will

continue in August as well.

Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Two-wheeler manufacturers in our coverageuniverse continued to post poor performance as demand remained weak and

competition remaining at elevated levels. Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) posted a sharp declineof 18.3% yoy (4.9% mom) in its total sales, which were lower than our expectations.

Further, the company also refrained from pushing more stock at the dealer end

ahead of the launch of the new Discover which is scheduled around the festival

season.Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) posted a marginal growth of 0.7% yoy (down 2.9%mom) in total volumes; the same was slightly lower than our expectations. TVSMotor Company (TVSL) reported lower-than-expected volumes as total volumesregistered a decline of 4.7% yoy (6.4% mom) led by the poor performance of the

two-wheeler segment. Three-wheeler sales on the other hand continued the strong

momentum and posted a growth of 112.2% yoy (3.4% mom) driven by exports.

Automobile SectorPinning hopes on festival season

Monthly Update | July 2013

August 3, 2013

Yaresh Kothari+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844

[email protected]


2/13

Auto Sector Update | July 2013

August 3, 2013 2

Tata Motors

Tata Motors continued reporting a disappointing sales performance as the CVand PV segments maintained their downwards trajectory. Total volumes posted

a significant decline of 30% yoy (2.4% mom) to 51,468 units with CV and PV

segments registering a sharp decline of 14.2% and 57.2% yoy respectively.

Within the CV space, domestic medium & heavy and light commercial vehiclesegments witnessed a decline of 19.2% and 12.2% yoy respectively.

While in the PV segment, utility vehicle and passenger cars witnessed a declineof 54.6% and 57.8% yoy respectively.

Exports too registered a decline of 12.1% yoy during the month

Exhibit 1:Tata Motors Sales trendSegment July2013 July2012 % chg YTDFY2014 YTDFY2013 % chgTotal sales 51,468 73,491 (30.0) 204,640 262,265 (22.0)MHCV 11,025 13,641 (19.2) 44,022 50,792 (13.3)

LCV 28,921 32,942 (12.2) 112,421 122,425 (8.2)

CV 39,946 46,583 (14.2) 156,443 173,217 (9.7)Utility vehicles 2,352 5,175 (54.6) 9,568 16,343 (41.5)

Cars 9,170 21,733 (57.8) 38,629 72,705 (46.9)

PV 11,522 26,908 (57.2) 48,197 89,048 (45.9)Exports 4,277 4,864 (12.1) 15,712 17,935 (12.4)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:CV segment Monthly sales trend


(20.0)

(15.0)

(10.0)(5.0)

0.0

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Mar-13

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Jul-13

(%)(units) Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

TTMTs sales continue to disappoint led

by weakness in CV and PV segments


3/13


August 3, 2013 3

Exhibit 3:PV segment Monthly sales trend


Ashok Leyland

Ashok Leyland reported better-than-expected volumes with total sales postinga strong growth of 25.4% mom to 8,739 units; albeit on a low base of last

month. However on a yoy basis, volumes continue to be impacted by the

prevailing slowdown in the medium & heavy commercial vehicle segment

(down 10.4% yoy) which led to a 10.7% yoy decline in total volumes.

Dost reported subdued volumes with sales declining by 11.5% yoy to 2,480units.

Exhibit 4:Ashok Leyland Sales trendJuly2013 July2012 % chg YTDFY2014 YTDFY2013 % chg

Total sales 8,739 9,785 (10.7) 30,460 37,370 (18.5)CV (ex. Dost) 6,259 6,982 (10.4) 21,156 27,319 (22.6)

Dost 2,480 2,803 (11.5) 9,304 10,051 (7.4)


(80.0)

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.080.0

100.0

0

5,000

10,000

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30,00035,000

40,000

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13


Ls CV sales continued to reel under

pressure led by slowdown in economic

activity


4/13


August 3, 2013 4

Exhibit 5:CV segment Monthly sales trend


Maruti Suzuki

Maruti Suzuki registered an in-line volume growth of 1.3% yoy (down 1.4%mom) to 83,299 units. The volume growth was led by a healthy growth of

5.8% yoy (down 2.4% mom) in the domestic market.

Exports however continued its poor run and witnessed a significant decline of27.3% yoy (up 9.4% mom on a low base) due to macroeconomic uncertainty

in its key export markets.

While sales in the Mini segment surged 15.8% yoy (7.3% mom) led by agradual uptick in demand for petrol cars, the super compact segment

registered a strong growth of 33.6% yoy (21.5% mom) despite competition

from Hondas Amaze. However the compact and utility vehicle segments

posted an 11.9% (33.9% mom) and 37.5% yoy (8.7% mom) decline in

volumes respectively.

Exhibit 6:Maruti Suzuki Sales trendSegment July2013 July2012 % chg YTDFY2014 YTDFY2013 % chgTotal sales 83,299 82,234 1.3 349,733 378,130 (7.5)A: Mini: M800, A-star,Alto, Wagon R

33,587 28,998 15.8 131,255 123,811 6.0

A: Compact:Swift, Estilo, Ritz 13,882 15,759 (11.9) 73,560 88,745 (17.1)

A: Super Compact: Dzire 15,249 11,413 33.6 64,508 58,371 10.5

A: Mid-size:SX4 322 679 (52.6) 1,740 2,126 (18.2)

A: Executive: Kizashi - 2 - - 23 -

Total passenger vehicles 63,040 56,851 10.9 271,063 273,076 (0.7)B: UV - Gypsy,Grand Vitara, Ertiga

4,562 7,294 (37.5) 19,184 26,259 (26.9)

C: Vans: Omni, Eeco 7,543 6,879 9.7 30,244 34,953 (13.5)

Total domestic sales 75,145 71,024 5.8 320,491 334,288 (4.1)Total exports 8,154 11,210 (27.3) 29,242 43,842 (33.3)


(50)

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Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

(%)(units) Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

MSIL registered in-line volumes; Mini

segment registered a sequential growth

of 7.3%


5/13


August 3, 2013 5

Exhibit 7:Total volumes - Monthly sales trend


Mahindra & Mahindra

Mahindra & Mahindra reported weak volumes primarily due to the poorperformance of the automotive segment, which has been impacted due to

demand slowdown, rising competition and also due to the increase in excise

duty.

However, the tractor segment registered a strong growth of 11.8% yoy drivenby a 14.7% yoy growth in domestic volumes. The domestic volumes have

witnessed a strong growth YTD in FY2014 led by normal monsoon andimproved prospects for kharif crop.

Total volumes declined sharply by 12.6% yoy (15.6% mom) to 55,565 units asthe automotive segment fell by a significant 21.2% yoy (2.6% mom).

The automotive segment registered a poor performance across the sub-segments with passenger vehicle sales (down 29.4% yoy and 9.9% mom)

being the worst impacted. The sale of four-wheeler pick-ups and three-

wheelers too witnessed a decline of 6.5% and 12.8% yoy respectively.

Automotive export volumes plunged 38.8% during the month.

Meanwhile, the production cuts announced by the company at the automotiveplants in July will continue in August as well.

(80.0)

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

0.0

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40.0

60.080.0

100.0

0

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140,000

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May-13

Jul-13


MMs automotive sales witnessed a

sharp decline due to demand slowdown

and increasing competition; tractor sales

however registered a strong growth


6/13


August 3, 2013 6

Exhibit 8:Mahindra & Mahindra Sales trendSegment July2013 July2012 % chg YTDFY2014 YTDFY2013 % chgTotal sales 55,565 63,580 (12.6) 253,127 249,186 1.6Passenger vehicles 15,530 22,011 (29.4) 75,755 83,511 (9.3)Four-wheel pick-up (GIO, Maxximo) 13,740 14,688 (6.5) 56,763 54,099 4.9

Three-wheelers (Champion, Alfa) 4,490 5,149 (12.8) 16,857 18,964 (11.1)

LCV/MHCV 730 951 (23.2) 3,329 4,409 (24.5)

Exports 2,606 4,260 (38.8) 7,377 12,101 (39.0)

Total automotive sales 37,096 47,059 (21.2) 160,081 173,084 (7.5)Tractor sales Domestic 17,771 15,495 14.7 89,161 72,056 23.7

Tractor sales Exports 698 1,026 (32.0) 3,885 4,046 (4.0)

Total tractor sales 18,469 16,521 11.8 93,046 76,102 22.3Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 9:PV segment Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 10:Tractor segment Monthly sales trend


(40.0)

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Jul-13



7/13


August 3, 2013 7

Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto posted a sharp decline of 18.3% yoy (4.9% mom) in its total salesto 281,327 units, which were lower than our expectations, led by continued

weakness in the motorcycle sales. Further, the company also refrained from

pushing more stock at the dealer end ahead of the launch of the new Discover

which is scheduled around the festival season.

While domestic sales plunged 21.7% yoy (2.3% mom) due to weak demandfor motorcycles; exports too registered a substantial decline of 12.3% yoy

(8.6% mom).

Three-wheeler sales also declined by 2.2% yoy (16.3% mom). The companyhas launched new three-wheelers in an attempt to progressively replace the

entire portfolio over the next 3-4 months.

Meanwhile, according to the Management the labor trouble at the Chakanplant did not have any impact on sales during the month.

Exhibit 11:Bajaj Auto Sales trendSegment July2013 July2012 % chg YTDFY2014 YTDFY2013 % chgTotal sales 281,327 344,150 (18.3) 1,260,602 1,423,121 (11.4)Motorcycles 246,828 308,858 (20.1) 1,106,979 1,291,481 (14.3)

Three-wheelers 34,499 35,292 (2.2) 153,623 131,640 16.7

Exports (included above) 110,023 125,501 (12.3) 472,586 541,146 (12.7)


Exhibit 12:Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend


(30.0)

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Jul-13

(%)(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS)

BJAUT reported extremely poor volumes

led by weakness in the domestic

motorcycle segment; the company also

refrained from pushing stock at the

dealer end ahead of the launch of new

Discovers


8/13


August 3, 2013 8

Exhibit 13:Three-wheeler segment Monthly sales trend


Hero MotoCorp

Hero MotoCorp posted a marginal growth of 0.7% yoy (down 2.9% mom) intotal volumes to 487,545 units, which was slightly lower than our expectations.

Total volumes continue to be impacted by the slowdown in motorcycle

demand and higher competition from Honda.

Going ahead, the company is hopeful that better monsoons coupled withimproving consumer sentiments will revive growth.

On the exports front, the company has forayed into newer geographies likeGuatemala, Kenya, El Salvador, Honduras and Ivory Coast. The company is

targeting to enter countries within Latin America and Africa.

Exhibit 14:Hero MotoCorp Sales trendJuly2013 July2012 % chg YTDFY2014 YTDFY2013 % chg

Total sales 487,545 484,217 0.7 2,046,548 2,124,507 (3.7)Source: Company, Angel Research

(60.0)

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60.0

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Jul-11

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(%)(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS)

HMCL registered lower-than-expected

volumes; motorcycle sales remain

sluggish


9/13


August 3, 2013 9

Exhibit 15:HMCL Monthly sales trend


TVS Motor

TVS Motor reported lower-than-expected which declined 4.7% yoy (6.4% mom)to 153,676 units.

The company continued its sluggish performance in the two-wheeler segment(down 7.1% yoy and 6.8% mom) on account of poor demand and increased

competitive activity in the motorcycle (down 1.9% mom) and scooter (down

4.6% mom) segments.

Three-wheelers on the other hand continued their strong momentum andposted a sales volume growth of 112.2% yoy (3.4% mom) driven by exports.

The overall exports registered a strong growth of 36.6% yoy (flat mom) duringthe month. The companys Management expects export volumes to touch a

monthly run-rate of 28,000-30,000 units within the next six months.

Exhibit 16:TVS Motor Sales trendSegment July2013 July2012 % chg YTDFY2014 YTDFY2013 % chgTotal sales 153,676 161,255 (4.7) 648,170 680,415 (4.7)Motorcycles 57,886 53,355 8.5 251,356 246,729 1.9

Scooters 36,900 40,895 (9.8) 139,023 153,727 (9.6)

Mopeds 51,885 63,704 (18.6) 233,491 267,579 (12.7)

Total two-wheelers 146,671 157,954 (7.1) 623,870 668,035 (6.6)Three-wheelers 7,005 3,301 112.2 24,300 12,380 96.3

Exports (included above) 26,145 19,142 36.6 98,299 83,981 17.0


(30.0)

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Jul-11

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Sep-12

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Jan-13

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May-13

Jul-13


dverse operating environment

continues to impact TVSLs performance


10/13


August 3, 2013 10

Exhibit 17:Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 18:Scooter segment Monthly sales trend


(40.0)

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Jul-13


(40.0)

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May-13

Jul-13



11/13


August 3, 2013 11

Outlook

While the near term environment continues to remain challenging for the

automotive sector, we believe the long-term structural growth drivers for the

industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban

consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global

players and easy availability of finance will remain intact. We continue to prefer

stocks that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets

and command superior pricing power. We maintain our positive stance on AshokLeyland, Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors.

Exhibit 19:Relative valuation and recommendationCompanies Reco. CMP(`) TP(`)

Sales (` cr) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) FY13-15EEPS CAGR (%)Y14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15EAL Buy 13 22 13,450 15,853 33.4 6.9 1.1 1.0 2.3 11.0 5.5 3.3 74.4

BJAUT Accumulate 1,908 2,102 21,696 25,239 16.0 13.6 5.6 4.5 38.9 36.5 11.0 9.1 15.4

HMCL Accumulate 1,797 2,048 25,562 28,297 16.2 12.3 5.9 4.6 40.1 42.1 8.2 7.1 17.5

MSIL Buy 1,337 1,648 45,862 52,647 14.1 12.2 1.9 1.7 14.4 14.6 6.2 5.4 17.8

MM Buy 855 1,103 44,761 50,572 13.5 12.1 2.9 2.4 23.2 21.8 7.1 5.8 13.8

TTMT* Buy 290 347 215,016 237,404 8.0 7.0 1.8 1.5 24.6 23.2 3.9 3.3 13.8

TVSL Accumulate 31 35 7,715 8,584 6.3 5.4 1.1 0.9 18.1 18.5 2.1 1.4 15.3

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on August 2, 2013; *Consolidated financials


12/13


August 3, 2013 12

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership Angel and its Group companies Angel and its Group companies' Broking relationshipof the stock ownership of the stock Directors ownership of the stock with company covered

Ashok Leyland No No No No

Tata Motors No No No No

Maruti Suzuki No No No No

Mahindra & Mahindra No No No No

Bajaj Auto No No No No

Hero MotoCorp No No No No

TVS Motor No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)


13/13


A 3 2013 13

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V Srinivasan Analyst (Cement, FMCG) [email protected]

Yaresh Kothari Analyst (Automobile) [email protected]

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CSO & Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 93. Tel: (022) 3083 7700. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd: BSE Cash: INB010996539 / BSE F&O: INF010996539, CDSL Regn. No.: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 2004, PMS Regn. Code: PM/INP000001546, NSE Cash: INB231279838 /NSE F&O: INF231279838 / NSE Currency: INE231279838, MCX Stock Exchange Ltd: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500. Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd.: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn. No.: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn. No.: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302.

auto sector update, july 2013

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