banking sector update
TRANSCRIPT
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Asset quality woes aggravate during the quarter: Asset quality stress has remainedat elevated levels for banks, thereby denting sectors performance and outlook.
Until 4QFY2013, there were signs of moderation in pace of asset quality
deterioration, as the increase in annualized slippage ratio for overall FY2013
came in 26bp yoy, much lower than the increase of 38bp and 57bp yoy
witnessed in 9MFY2013 and 1HFY2013, respectively. In 1QFY2014, asset quality
woes intensified, as annualized slippage rate surged to 3.7%, a much higher
increase of 63bp yoy. Elevated slippages coupled with moderate performance on
the recoveries and upgrades front, resulted in sharp 16.8% qoq increase in Gross
NPA levels for our coverage PSU banks, while the increase was moderate for our
coverage Pvt. banks at 5.4%.
Lower inflation catalyst unlikely to play out, lower interest rates now depend moreon exchange rate stability: Until a couple of months back, lower inflation wasexpected to be a big positive catalyst for the economy, as it would have eventually
led to lower rates, improvement in growth, higher savings and investments
mobilization, improved asset quality outlook and higher MTM gains. However,
recent series of RBI measures to tighten domestic liquidity so as to check exchange
rate volatility, has effectively made our monitory policy movement tied to Federal
Reserve moves and has led to significant surge in interest rates across the yield
curve, which has put a clear hurdle in lower inflation catalyst playing out.
Tough time to continue for Indian Banks: Given RBIs policy tightening measuresto check USD-INR volatility, macro environment is expected to remain challenging
in near term and elevated interest rates and slower growth appears inevitable
now. Credit growth for the banking sector is expected to reduce from the levels
envisaged earlier. Asset quality outlook also remain tough, as apart from
continued elevated level of slippages, higher restructuring and increased
slippages from restructured book can be expected. Though the quantum of MTM
losses has reduced post the RBI relaxation on transfer within book, the outlook on
bond prices still has a downward bias and hence MTM losses would remain
meaningful, so as to affect overall earnings.
Outlook and Valuation: Elevated interest rates, weakening growth, and a volatilecurrency would ensure that the earnings pressures for Indian banks will increase
here on. PSU banks, apart from the cyclical headwinds mentioned above, alsoface structural challenges in terms of a) low capital adequacy (for many of them;
which increases the risk of book dilutive capital raising and hurt growth
prospects), and b) higher competitive intensity (not only loss of deposits and credit
market share, but also of profitability - as current credit cycle evidently highlights
adverse asset selection on part of PSUs and superior selection by private banks in
the past, which is reflecting in their performance now). Although valuations for all
of them are below their historic lows, their fundamental investment case appears
weak enough to avoid them, until clarity emerges on macro front.
Overall, we have a cautious stance on the sector and would recommend staying
with the defensives in the near term. After the recent correction in prices, HDFC
Bank becomes a Buy for us. We like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, which in our view,offers value over a medium to long term perspective, though we do not rule the
possibilities of these stocks undershooting the fair value estimates in the near
term, given the fragile macro environment.
Vaibhav Agrawal022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808
Sourabh Taparia022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872
Harshal Patkar022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847
Banking - 1QFY2014 Result ReviewMacro environment remains challenging
Sector Update | Banking
August 28, 2013
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Heavy slippages and high inventory of Gross NPAs coupled with
low C/D ratio caused margins to fall
Persistent asset quality pressures continue to affect the banking sectors margins
quarter after quarter, as more than half of our coverage banks reported sequentially
lower margins during 1QFY2014. Andhra Bank (ANDBK) and South Indian Bank
(SIB) witnessed the highest sequential margin compression, on account of higher
interest reversals on heavy slippages witnessed during the quarter (slippages for
ANDBK and SIB were higher sequentially by 26.8% and 48.0%, respectively during
the quarter).
Exhibit 1:Our coverage banks performance on reported margins frontBank 1QFY2014 4QFY2013 Chg (bps) Bank 1QFY2014 4QFY2013 Chg (bps)ANDBK 2.70 3.04 (34) SBI 3.44 3.48 (4)
SIB 2.93 3.20 (27) CENTBK 2.68 2.68 -UNBK 2.63 2.89 (26) YESBK 3.00 3.00 -
VIJAYA 2.00 2.21 (21) PNB 3.52 3.51 1
CANBK 2.21 2.39 (18) ALLBK 2.83 2.81 2
SYNBK 2.83 2.97 (14) FEDBK 3.13 3.07 6
INDBK 2.74 2.88 (14) BOI 3.07 3.00 7
BOB 2.84 2.93 (9) J&KBK 4.15 4.07 8
BOM 3.02 3.10 (8) OBC 2.90 2.82 8
UCOBK 2.27 2.34 (7) DENABK 2.55 2.46 9
IDBI 2.12 2.19 (7) HDFCBK 4.60 4.50 10
ICICIBK 3.27 3.33 (6) AXSB 3.86 3.70 16
IOB 2.24 2.30 (6) UTDBK 3.30 2.67 63
CRPBK 2.26 2.31 (5) SBI 3.44 3.48 (4)
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *domestic margins for SBI, BOB, BOI
Exhibit 2:CD ratio contracts sequentially for more than half of the coverage banksBank 1QFY14 Chg (bps)QoQ Chg (bps)YoY Bank 1QFY14 Chg (bps)QoQ Chg (bps)YoYUCOBK 70.7 (329) (619) ANDHBK 79.8 36 (60)
DENABK 68.9 119 (594) SYNBK 81.8 223 (28)
BOB 68.8 (45) (588) PNB 76.9 (197) 46
VIJAYA 64.5 (741) (409) OBC 72.6 (70) 59
UNBK 73.1 (579) (357) ALLBK 71.6 (88) 115
BOI 73.6 (214) (345) SBI 84.4 (258) 123
YESBK 73.4 324 (331) HDFCBK 85.3 434 241
FEDBK 72.4 (414) (285) ICICIBK 103.5 431 326
CRPBK 70.8 (75) (272) J&KBK 67.0 599 448
CENTBK 75.7 (39) (263) IOB 85.0 571 480
SIB 71.6 (29) (202) AXSB 83.1 513 623
CANBK 65.4 (263) (199) BOM 77.9 (208) 672
INDBK 73.0 (139) (90) IDBI 97.6 1120 1047
Source: Company, Angel Research
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CASA witnesses moderate growth; in-line with seasonal trend
CASA deposits saw a typical seasonal trend during the quarter, as savings
deposits for our coverage universe grew by 9.1% yoy, while current deposits grew by
12.2% yoy.
Private banks continued to outperform their PSU peers on the savings deposits (SA)
front, with a growth of 17.8% yoy. Amongst our coverage Private banks, Yes Bank
witnessed the highest SA growth of 120.6% yoy (it continued to witness significant
traction post the hike in savings rate to 6-7%). Within large Private banks, while Axis
Bank and HDFC Bank fared well and reported a healthy growth of 19.9% and
16.7% yoy respectively, ICICI Bank witnessed a moderate growth of 14.0% yoy.
Amongst PSU banks, the top two performers on the SA front were IDBI Bank
(25.8% yoy growth on account of continued traction witnessed post waiver of CASA
charges during FY2012) and Bank of India with 16.2% yoy growth respectively.
On the current deposits (CA) front, UCO Bank registered a strong performance, as
its CA deposits more than doubled on a yoy basis, due to substantial float being
made available on opening of rupee accounts with the bank for facilitating
Indo-Iran trade payments. Amongst other PSU banks, the top two performers on the
CA front were Bank of Baroda (43.2% yoy) and Syndicate Bank (37.9% yoy). Private
banks managed to outperform their PSU counterparts on the CA front this time
around, with a growth of 14.0% yoy, compared to a growth of 11.6% yoy for PSU
banks, whose performance on the CA front was affected on account of de-growth by
IDBI Bank and weak performance by PNB.
Exhibit 3:CASA ratio and Investment-to-deposits ratio for our coverage banks as of 1QFY2014
Source: Company, Angel Research
20
43
21
42
29
28
19
40
23
45
19
35
29
24
29
38
45
32
27
24
32
21
26
31
31
28
64
60
47
43
42
38
38
37
36
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
32
30
30
29
28
27
25
25
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
YE
SBK
ICIC
IBK
IDBI
A
XSB
FEDBK
DEN
ABK
COR
PBK
J&
KBK
CANBK
HDFCBK
V
IJBK
B
OM
AL
LBK
O
BC
UNIONBK
PNB
SBI
CEN
TBK
INDBK
ANDHBK
UCOBK
SIB
IOB
BOI
BOB
SYNBK
CASA Ratio Investments to Deposits - (%)
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Exhibit 4:CASA deposits witness moderate growthBank SA -1QFY14 SA -1QFY13 yoygrowth CA -1QFY14 CA -1QFY13 yoygrowth CASA -1QFY14 CASA -1QFY13 yoygrowth CASARatioPrivate BanksYESBK 6,622 3,001 120.6 6,542 5,169 26.6 13,163 8,170 61.1 20.2
AXSB 63,298 52,777 19.9 37,798 34,165 10.6 101,096 86,942 16.3 42.4
ICICIBK 88,853 77,923 14.0 36,981 30,754 20.2 125,834 108,677 15.8 43.2
FEDBK 13,811 11,977 15.3 2,692 2,358 14.2 16,503 14,335 15.1 29.0
HDFCBK 89,480 76,674 16.7 46,071 41,682 10.5 135,551 118,356 14.5 44.7
SIB 7,290 6,390 14.1 1,678 1,445 16.1 8,968 7,835 14.5 20.6
PSU BanksUCOBK 30,053 26,861 11.9 26,705 9,291 187.4 56,758 36,151 57.0 32.1
BOB 83,530 75,562 10.5 34,669 24,214 43.2 118,199 99,776 18.5 31.2
BOM 27,297 24,023 13.6 9,950 7,596 31.0 37,247 31,619 17.8 35.3
BOI 78,189 67,308 16.2 18,498 15,926 16.2 96,687 83,233 16.2 30.6
SYNBK 37,370 34,275 9.0 13,774 9,987 37.9 51,144 44,262 15.5 28.0
UNIONBK 57,663 50,565 14.0 21,445 18,177 18.0 79,108 68,742 15.1 29.1
J&KBK 18,445 16,081 14.7 5,134 4,480 14.6 23,579 20,560 14.7 40.2
CENTBK 61,264 53,943 13.6 12,910 10,837 19.1 74,174 64,780 14.5 32.1
ALLBK 44,288 38,608 14.7 8,854 7,865 12.6 53,142 46,473 14.4 29.5
CANBK 73,938 66,504 11.2 14,374 11,398 26.1 88,312 77,902 13.4 23.1
PNB 123,228 107,425 14.7 26,718 25,723 3.9 149,946 133,148 12.6 37.8
CORPBK 20,279 18,350 10.5 10,853 9,419 15.2 31,132 27,769 12.1 19.1
SBI 438,639 390,410 12.4 88,955 83,485 6.6 527,594 473,895 11.3 44.7
OBC 31,293 28,092 11.4 10,551 9,899 6.6 41,844 37,990 10.1 23.7
IDBI 22,145 17,606 25.8 15,565 17,037 (8.6) 37,710 34,643 8.9 20.6
VIJBK 15,275 13,441 13.6 4,581 4,949 (7.4) 19,856 18,390 8.0 18.8
INDBK 33,533 30,936 8.4 6,651 6,292 5.7 40,183 37,228 7.9 26.9
DENABK 20,845 19,361 7.7 5,509 5,282 4.3 26,354 24,643 6.9 27.9
IOB 38,874 36,370 6.9 11,378 10,985 3.6 50,252 47,355 6.1 25.6
ANDHBK 24,182 22,485 7.5 6,047 6,269 (3.5) 30,000 28,754 4.3 23.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Exhibit 5:Yield on advances# for banks under our coverageBank 1QFY14 1QFY13 Chg (bps) Bank 1QFY14 1QFY13 Chg (bps)YESBK 12.8 13.0 (23) AXSB 10.5 10.9 (35)
SIB 12.3 12.6 (30) VIJBK 10.5 11.4 (95)JKBK 12.1 12.4 (33) CANBK 10.5 10.9 (39)
HDFCBK 11.8 12.2 (44) INDBK 10.4 11.3 (96)
FEDBK 11.6 12.3 (64) PNB 10.3 11.1 (88)
OBC 11.3 11.8 (48) IOB 10.2 10.8 (66)
DENABK 11.0 11.4 (38) UNBK 10.1 10.9 (78)
ANDBK 11.0 11.8 (89) UCOBK 10.0 11.3 (131)
CRPBK 10.9 11.0 (15) ICICIBK* 9.7 9.9 (16)
IDBI 10.9 11.3 (45) SYNDBK 9.4 10.5 (114)
BOM 10.8 11.0 (20) SBI* 9.1 9.9 (87)
UTDBK 10.7 11.1 (47) BOI* 8.3 8.7 (37)
CNTBK 10.6 11.1 (49) BOB* 8.2 9.0 (76)
ALBK 10.5 11.9 (136)
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:*includes significant overseas operations, #Calculated
Exhibit 6:Risk adjusted yield on assets# for banks under our coverageBank 1QFY14 1QFY13 Chg (bps) Bank 1QFY14 1QFY13 Chg (bps)YESBK 9.3 9.8 (46) CRPBK 7.4 8.5 (111)
JKBK 9.1 9.4 (22) ANDBK 7.4 9.2 (183)
HDFCBK 8.8 8.6 13 AXSB 7.3 8.5 (119)
SIB 8.6 10.0 (138) SYNDBK 7.2 8.1 (92)OBC 7.9 8.8 (92) INDBK 7.2 8.8 (166)
BOM 7.9 7.6 29 ICICIBK* 7.0 7.6 (59)
VIJBK 7.8 8.3 (44) SBI* 6.9 7.6 (67)
ALBK 7.7 9.0 (133) IOB 6.9 8.1 (119)
IDBI 7.5 8.1 (59) DENABK 6.9 8.8 (193)
UNBK 7.5 8.3 (83) CNTBK 6.8 8.4 (162)
PNB 7.5 8.2 (68) UCOBK 6.5 8.3 (183)
CANBK 7.5 8.4 (94) BOI* 6.2 7.3 (103)
FEDBK 7.4 9.4 (201) BOB* 5.9 6.7 (83)
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:*includes significant overseas operations, #Calculated
Moderate performance on the non-interest income (excluding
treasury) front
Our coverage banks performance on the non-interest income (excluding treasury)
front in 1QFY2014 was moderate, with a growth of 9.9% yoy, similar to 9.0% yoy
witnessed during the last quarter. The moderate growth was aided by improved
performance on the fee income front and higher recoveries on written off accounts.
Private Banks performance on the non-interest income (excluding treasury) front
was relatively better at 13.2% yoy, higher than our coverage PSU banks, which saw
a moderate growth of 7.7% yoy. Amongst the large PSU banks, a yoy decline was
witnessed in two of the seven banks (PNB and Bank of India),however, a 33.8% yoy
growth in Canara Bank and a 21.4% yoy growth in IDBI Bank, aided the larger PSU
pack to register a marginal growth of 5.5% yoy. Mid-PSU banks, on an aggregate
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basis witnessed a healthy growth of 14.9% yoy, which was majorly on the back of a
robust performance on the recoveries front. Within mid-PSU banks, the performance
was aided by a healthy 44.7% yoy growth in Central Bank, 27.4% yoy growth in
Allahabad Bank and 22.0% yoy increase in Vijaya Bank. Within mid-PSU banks, theworst performers were Andhra Bank and OBC, which registered a 21.2% and 14.0%
yoy decline in non-interest income respectively, during the quarter.
Exhibit 7:Moderate Non-interest income (excl. treasury) performance for banks under our coverageBank 1QFY2014 4QFY2013 % chg (qoq) 1QFY2013 % chg (yoy) As % to avg. assets1QFY2014 1QFY2013 Chg (bps)PrivateYESBK 442 379 16.5 288 53.4 1.79 1.52 27
HDFCBK 1,726 1,739 (0.7) 1,583 9.0 1.69 1.81 (12)
AXSB 1,341 1,769 (24.2) 1,185 13.2 1.59 1.65 (6)
ICICIBK 2,081 2,115 (1.6) 1,901 9.5 1.55 1.59 (4)
FEDBK 127 139 (9.0) 98 29.3 0.71 0.64 7
SIB 66 107 (38.5) 55 20.0 0.53 0.54 (0)
PSU-LargePNB 995 853 16.6 1,030 (3.4) 0.83 0.90 (7)
SBI 3,273 5,318 (38.4) 3,272 0.0 0.82 0.95 (13)
IDBI 574 1,004 (42.8) 473 21.4 0.75 0.67 8
CANBK 794 755 5.3 594 33.8 0.75 0.63 12
UNBK 517 640 (19.2) 436 18.6 0.65 0.66 (1)
BOB 821 903 (9.0) 689 19.2 0.60 0.61 (1)
BOI 657 937 (29.9) 740 (11.3) 0.56 0.75 (19)
PSU-MidOBC 332 394 (15.5) 422 (21.2) 0.66 0.94 (28)
IOB 397 498 (20.4) 401 (1.1) 0.66 0.72 (6)
ALLBK 324 427 (24.0) 255 27.4 0.63 0.56 7
CRPBK 297 443 (33.0) 285 4.1 0.62 0.71 (10)
BOM 167 295 (43.4) 155 8.1 0.54 0.69 (15)
INDBK 215 334 (35.6) 200 7.4 0.52 0.55 (3)
ANDHBK 182 249 (27.0) 211 (14.0) 0.49 0.67 (18)
CENTBK 319 493 (35.3) 220 44.7 0.47 0.38 9
UCOBK 228 246 (7.3) 220 3.6 0.46 0.49 (3)VIJAYA 125 171 (26.4) 103 22.0 0.45 0.42 3
J&KBK 73 125 (41.6) 73 (0.6) 0.42 0.49 (6)
DENABK 118 152 (22.9) 110 7.2 0.42 0.48 (6)
SYNBK 210 357 (41.4) 213 (1.4) 0.39 0.47 (7)
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Significant Treasury gains aided other income and bottom-line
During 1QFY2014, the downward movement in bond yields, as expected, resulted
in significant treasury gains for all our coverage banks. Treasury income for our
coverage banks, on an aggregate basis grew more than four times to `7,210cr as
compared to `1,403cr in 1QFY2013 and `3,578cr in 4QFY2013.
Exhibit 8:Significant Treasury gainsBank 1QFY2014 4QFY2013 % chg (qoq) 1QFY2013 % chg (yoy)Private BanksFEDBK 89 58 54.6 26 239.2
HDFCBK 200 65 207.4 67 200.0
AXSB 440 238 84.7 150 192.8
SIB 52 14 276.9 20 159.0
ICICIBK 403 93 333.3 (21) -PSU BanksUCOBK 234 71 228.7 13 1,718.3
INDBK 314 126 148.8 22 1,309.9
ANDHBK 286 105 171.5 25 1,061.4
DENABK 248 83 198.8 32 675.0
VIJAYA 141 106 33.4 20 615.3
CRPBK 285 124 128.8 43 567.8
SBI 1,201 229 424.5 221 443.5
BOI 524 157 233.1 100 421.9
BOB 409 288 42.0 82 402.1
CANBK 444 252 76.2 99 349.3
UNBK 239 235 1.7 55 334.5
SYNBK 85 42 102.4 23 269.6
ALLBK 177 98 80.6 55 221.8
IDBI 143 143 0.0 47 204.3
CENTBK 279 143 95.1 102 173.5
PNB 347 321 8.1 136 155.1
BOM 58 87 -33.3 24 139.1
J&KBK 19 84 -76.9 20 -3.6
OBC 206 68 201.8 (13) -
IOB 388 173 124.0 (25) -
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Asset quality woes aggravate during the quarter; and are unlike
to abate as quickly as was expected earlier
Asset quality stress has remained at elevated levels for banks, thereby denting
sectors performance and outlook. Slippages for the banking industry have
continued to trend northwards for the last couple of years. Until 4QFY2013, there
were signs of moderation in pace of asset quality deterioration, as the increase in
annualized slippage ratio for overall FY2013 came in 26bp yoy, much lower than
the increase of 38bp and 57bp yoy witnessed in 9MFY2013 and 1HFY2013,
respectively. In 1QFY2014, asset quality woes have intensified, as annualized
slippage rate has surged to 3.7%, a much higher increase of 63bp yoy.
Amongst large PSU banks, almost all witnessed a sequential and yoy increase in
their quarterly slippage ratios. Large PSU banks, as a segment witnessed annualized
slippage ratio of 4.2% as against 3.6%, a year ago. Within the mid-PSU ones,
barring JKBK and UCOBK (which managed to lower their annualized slippage ratio
by 110-340bp qoq and 20-100bp yoy), most others continued to witness elevated
level of slippages and hence witnessed sequential and yoy increase in annualized
slippage ratio. Mid PSU banks, as a segment witnessed annualized slippage ratio of
3.7% as against 2.7% in 1QFY2013.
Though efforts on recoveries/upgrades front have increased considerably, however,
during the quarter most PSU banks reported moderate performance on the
recoveries/upgrades front. Elevated slippages coupled with moderate recoveries and
upgrades resulted in Gross NPA levels for our coverage PSU banks increasingly
sharply by 16.8% qoq and 43.9% yoy.
During the quarter, heavy treasury gains aided the banks to provide higher for NPAs
and hence their provisioning expenses for our coverage PSU banks increased by
41.5% yoy. However, most of them witnessed sequential drop in provision coverage
ratio, as slippages during the quarter were much higher. Banks like, SBI PNB, BOB
and CANBK - within the large PSUs and CNTBK, CRPBK, ANDBK and DENABK
within the mid PSUs, witnessed much higher decrease in their provisioning coverage
ratio compared to others. Higher sequential increase in GNPA levels and lower
provision coverage (for most of our coverage banks) resulted in sequentially much
higher net NPA levels for PSU banks (increase of 24.0% qoq and 61.6% yoy).
Private Banks, on the other hand, though were not spared from asset qualitypressures, however they performed relatively much better vis--vis PSU banks on the
overall asset quality front. Though private banks witnessed sequential and yoy
increase in slippages, however, they also reported healthy recoveries and upgrades
performances and as a result the sequential increase in Gross NPA levels for our
coverage Pvt. Banks was limited to 5.4% qoq.
Going ahead, we believe that the asset quality pressures are unlikely to abate as
quickly as were expected earlier. Weakening economic growth environment,
persisting burden of high interest servicing costs, significantly higher currency
depreciation and its reflection on inflation (which had started moderating otherwise)
would ensure that the slippages for the banking sector remain elevated in the nearterm, as against earlier expectations of moderation by the second half of the current
fiscal.
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Exhibit 9:Gross NPA trend (%) for the banking* industry
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed
Exhibit 10:Net NPA trend (%) for the banking* industry
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed
Exhibit 11:Gross NPA trends (%) Pvt. vs. PSU banks*
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed
Exhibit 12:Net NPA trends (%) Private vs. PSU banks*
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed
2.43 2.47 2.402.28
2.43
2.732.85 2.80
3.09
3.423.49
3.32
3.80
2.10
2.30
2.50
2.70
2.90
3.10
3.30
3.50
3.70
3.90
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
1.08 1.071.00 0.99
1.04
1.281.36
1.30
1.49
1.74 1.80 1.72
2.09
0.90
1.10
1.30
1.50
1.70
1.90
2.10
2.30
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2.802.70
2.572.36 2.33 2.24 2.17
2.01 2.05 2.06 2.00 1.902.00
2.34 2.42 2.35 2.272.45
2.853.02 2.98
3.34
3.763.87
3.67
4.26
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
Pvt Banks PSU Banks
0.690.56 0.56 0.54 0.54 0.46 0.49 0.54 0.55 0.53
0.62
1.07 1.091.16
1.47 1.56 1.501.73
2.04 2.12 2.01
2.47
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3QF
Y11
4QF
Y11
1QF
Y12
2QF
Y12
3QF
Y12
4QF
Y12
1QF
Y13
2QF
Y13
3QF
Y13
4QF
Y13
1QF
Y14
Pvt Banks PSU Banks
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Exhibit 13:Asset quality woes aggravate in 1QFY2014, as annualized slippage rate inch up to 3.7%Bank 1QFY14 4QFY13 qoq (bps) 1QFY13 chg (bps) FY2013 FY2012 chg (bps) 9MFY13 9MFY12 chg (bps) 1HFY13 1HFY12 chg (bps)UTDBK 7.0 6.7 26 1.9 507 3.9 3.7 27 3.0 3.4 (41) 2.4 3.8 (141)
CENTBK 5.6 1.9 368 3.9 166 3.5 5.3 (179) 4.0 3.4 62 4.4 2.8 154SBI 5.3 2.7 256 5.0 27 3.7 3.5 15 4.0 3.9 7 4.1 3.8 39
ALLBK 5.2 9.3 (407) 2.1 311 5.3 2.4 292 4.0 1.8 216 4.2 1.4 272
PNB 4.7 NA NA 3.8 89 2.9 2.8 19 3.5 2.1 136 5.0 1.8 319
ANDHBK 4.5 4.3 30 4.0 56 3.5 3.1 46 3.3 3.2 8 3.8 3.7 10
CANBK 4.4 1.9 257 2.6 186 2.5 2.2 34 2.7 2.2 54 2.9 2.5 49
IOB 4.2 5.1 (92) 2.5 170 4.0 2.8 113 3.6 2.6 103 3.9 2.6 122
SYNBK 3.6 2.0 162 3.4 22 2.9 2.7 21 3.2 2.3 93 3.3 2.5 87
IDBI 3.4 2.0 143 2.3 113 1.8 2.0 (19) 1.8 2.4 (61) 1.8 2.0 (13)
BOM 3.0 2.2 77 3.1 (18) 2.1 1.9 28 2.1 1.2 96 2.3 1.2 113
CRPBK 2.9 (0.3) 321 2.9 5 1.8 1.4 40 2.5 1.6 88 2.3 1.5 79
UNBK 2.8 2.0 85 3.7 (85) 2.2 2.5 (26) 2.3 2.8 (46) 2.7 3.4 (70)
FEDBK 2.8 3.8 (102) 3.1 (30) 3.2 3.7 (50) 3.0 3.8 (81) 2.3 3.7 (139)
SIB 2.8 2.2 58 1.3 142 1.9 0.8 109 1.9 0.7 117 2.4 0.7 170
BOI 2.7 2.7 5 2.8 (6) 3.0 2.5 43 3.1 3.1 (9) 3.6 4.2 (63)
BOB 2.6 2.9 (31) 1.8 82 2.4 1.5 88 2.2 1.2 96 1.9 1.0 88
VIJAYA 2.6 1.8 83 3.3 (70) 2.8 4.2 (146) 3.1 4.7 (160) 3.6 4.4 (80)
DENABK 2.5 2.8 (35) 1.4 113 2.0 1.6 36 1.7 1.4 27 1.7 1.4 34
INDBK 2.4 5.8 (335) 1.0 141 4.1 2.5 159 3.5 1.5 203 2.1 1.5 69
OBC 2.4 3.7 (135) 2.5 (15) 2.9 4.1 (119) 2.6 3.6 (100) 2.4 3.9 (150)
UCOBK 2.0 5.3 (337) 3.0 (102) 4.5 2.4 205 4.2 2.1 208 4.2 2.1 210
ICICIBK 1.5 1.2 31 1.4 17 1.5 1.4 6 1.5 1.5 6 1.6 1.4 23
AXSB 1.4 0.9 45 1.1 31 1.2 1.3 (10) 1.3 1.2 3 1.3 1.1 16
J&KBK 0.8 1.9 (106) 1.0 (19) 1.4 1.2 17 1.2 0.9 26 1.1 1.0 7
HDFCBK NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
YESBK NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Aggregate level SlippagesTotal Cov. 3.7 2.9 77 3.1 63 2.9 2.7 26 3.0 2.6 38 3.2 2.6 57PSU 4.0 3.1 84 3.3 68 3.1 2.8 29 3.2 2.8 43 3.4 2.8 63
Large PSU 4.2 2.7 145 3.6 54 3.0 2.7 23 3.2 2.9 26 3.5 2.9 56
Mid PSU 3.7 3.9 (23) 2.7 94 3.4 3.0 41 3.2 2.5 73 3.2 2.5 75
Pvt. 1.6 1.4 27 1.4 25 1.5 1.5 1 1.6 1.5 4 1.6 1.5 16New Pvt. 1.5 1.1 36 1.3 22 1.4 1.4 (1) 1.4 1.4 5 1.5 1.3 20
Old Pvt. 2.8 3.1 (35) 2.3 42 2.7 2.6 8 2.5 2.6 (7) 2.3 2.5 (18)
Aggregate level Net Slippages (i.e. slippages minus recoveries and upgrades)Total Cov. 2.8 1.2 153 1.9 85 1.8 1.5 26 2.0 1.6 37 2.1 1.6 54PSU 3.0 1.3 163 2.1 91 1.9 1.7 23 2.1 1.8 36 2.3 1.8 51
Large PSU 3.1 0.9 217 2.5 63 1.8 1.7 15 2.1 2.0 16 2.4 2.0 41
Mid PSU 2.8 2.1 67 1.4 140 2.1 1.7 36 2.1 1.3 74 2.1 1.4 71
Pvt. 1.4 0.5 86 1.0 40 0.8 0.3 47 0.9 0.5 44 1.0 0.3 71
New Pvt. 1.2 0.5 66 0.8 35 0.8 0.3 45 0.8 0.4 42 1.0 0.3 66
Old Pvt. 2.7 0.6 211 1.9 76 1.2 0.6 62 1.4 0.8 56 1.7 0.7 101
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Exhibit 14:Gross and Net NPA levels deteriorate sequentially during the quarterGNPA(` cr) NNPA(` cr) PCR (%)
Bank 1QFY14 4QFY13 qoq (%) 1QFY14 4QFY13 qoq (%) 1QFY14 4QFY13 qoq (%)UTDBK 4,002 2,964 35.0 2,700 1,970 37.0 NA 62.5 NA CRPBK 2,749 2,048 34.2 1,900 1,411 34.7 56.8 62.1 (527)
BOM 1,500 1,138 31.8 656 393 66.9 76.5 83.7 (718)
ANDHBK 4,748 3,714 27.8 3,212 2,409 33.3 45.0 49.6 (455)
CENTBK 10,529 8,456 24.5 6,527 4,988 30.9 42.5 47.8 (529)
IDBI 7,959 6,450 23.4 3,872 3,100 24.9 68.0 70.8 (286)
BOB 9,763 7,983 22.3 5,441 4,192 29.8 63.6 68.2 (460)
DENABK 1,757 1,452 21.0 1,114 917 21.5 66.1 69.6 (344)
ALLBK 6,164 5,137 20.0 4,922 4,127 19.3 48.2 50.0 (182)
SYNBK 3,554 2,979 19.3 1,759 1,125 56.4 76.8 83.4 (666)
SBI 60,891 51,189 19.0 29,990 21,956 36.6 60.6 66.6 (598)
CANBK 7,329 6,260 17.1 6,209 5,278 17.6 58.2 61.4 (317)
HDFCBK 2,719 2,335 16.5 689 469 46.9 74.7 79.9 (525)
SIB 493 434 13.5 348 250 39.6 57.9 53.2 470
IOB 7,432 6,608 12.5 4,580 4,027 13.7 58.7 58.9 (20)
UNBK 7,093 6,314 12.3 3,883 3,353 15.8 63.4 65.2 (178)
PNB 15,091 13,466 12.1 9,060 7,237 25.2 54.7 58.8 (416)
YESBK 105 94 11.2 12 7 72.8 88.5 92.6 (410)
BOI 9,413 8,765 7.4 6,409 5,947 7.8 61.0 60.9 5
VIJAYA 1,645 1,533 7.3 977 910 7.4 67.3 68.3 (103)
INDBK 3,723 3,565 4.4 2,486 2,384 4.3 61.3 60.1 111
ICICIBK 10,009 9,608 4.2 2,463 2,231 10.4 75.4 76.8 (139)
AXSB 2,490 2,393 4.0 790 704 12.2 68.3 70.6 (230)
J&KBK 665 644 3.4 56 55 1.5 94.0 94.0 -
OBC 4,303 4,184 2.8 2,936 2,903 1.2 63.9 63.0 88
UCOBK 7,178 7,130 0.7 3,939 4,069 (3.2) 54.8 52.1 267
FEDBK 1,483 1,554 (4.6) 374 432 (13.5) 74.8 72.2 261
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 15:Aggregate gross NPA levelsPrivate Banks*Bank (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 1QFY13 %yoy %qoqPvt. New 16,824 15,646 15,154 11.0 7.5
Pvt. Old 5,338 4,711 4,255 25.4 13.3
Total 22,162 20,357 19,409 14.2 8.9Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed
Exhibit 16:Aggregate gross NPA levels PSU Banks*Bank (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 1QFY13 %yoy %qoqPSU Large 124,320 106,377 91,134 36.4 16.9
PSU Mid 61,714 53,089 38,400 60.7 16.2
Total 186,033 159,466 129,533 43.6 16.7Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed
Exhibit 17:Aggregate net NPA levels Private Banks*Bank (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 1QFY13 %yoy %qoqPvt. New 5,960 3,859 1,701 250.4 54.4
Pvt. Old 2,326 1,867 1,300 78.8 24.5
Total 8,285 5,726 3,001 176.1 44.7Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed
Exhibit 18:Aggregate net NPA levels PSU Banks*Bank (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 1QFY13 %yoy %qoqPSU Large 68,769 54,565 45,482 51.2 26.0
PSU Mid 39,011 32,798 21,605 80.6 18.9
Total 107,780 87,363 67,087 60.7 23.4Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed
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August 28, 2013 12
Incremental restructuring remained high during 1QFY2014
During 1QFY2014, fresh addition to the restructuring book for banks remained
elevated. Sectors like infrastructure (partly discom restructuring under FRP), textiles,
and iron & steel contributed a larger chunk of incremental restructuring during the
quarter. Amongst our coverage, PSU banks like SBI, CENTBK, PNB, UCOBK, BOB,
and CANBK witnessed the highest restructuring during the quarter.
Corporate debt restructuring (CDR) referrals have also risen significantly over the
last several quarters, closely tracking the deteriorating economic growth
environment. Under CDR mechanism, fresh approvals of around `21,000cr in
1QFY2014 (in case the implementation is delayed for any reason) and the pending
cases of around `42,000cr (only those which are approved and implemented during
the quarter), would add to the restructuring book of participating banks during the
quarter. As indicated by their Managements, the restructuring pipeline appears
sizable for banks like SBI (~`10,000cr over next few quarters), CANBK (~`5,000cr),
UNBK (~`5,000cr, which includes SEB restructuring worth `2,300cr), BOB
(~`2,000cr), VIJYBK (~`3,500cr, which includes SEB restructuring worth `3,000cr),
ANDBK (`3,300cr which includes discom worth `2,000cr), ALBK (~`1,500cr) and
OBC (`1,400cr).
Exhibit 19:CDR SnapshotYear (` cr) Referred ApprovedNo. of cases Additions No. of cases Additions
FY10 31 20,175 31 17,763
FY11 49 22,614 27 6,615
1QFY12 18 4,595 10 8,141
2QFY12 18 21,095 7 2,095
3QFY12 23 19,187 17 21,364
4QFY12 28 23,012 16 8,001
FY12 87 67,889 50 39,601
1QFY13 41 20,528 17 17,957
2QFY13 33 18,907 18 18,925
3QFY13 25 20,957 35 24,581
4QFY13 31 31,256 39 17,035
FY13 130 91,648 109 78,498
1QFY14 27 39,370 14 21,266
Total 549 337,511 415 250,279
Source: CDR India, Angel Research
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Exhibit 20:Restructuring book as of 1QFY2014Bank Restructured book (` cr)1QFY2014 4QFY2013 Ch.qoq (%) % to total advCNTBK 25,794 22,681 13.7 14.8PNB 34,154 32,143 6.3 11.2
IOB 18,356 18,050 1.7 11.0
ALBK 13,595 14,875 (8.6) 10.5
DENABK 6,538 5,423 20.6 10.1
ANDBK 9,847 9,692 1.6 9.8
INDBK 10,020 9,707 3.2 9.2
OBC* 10,268 9,935 3.4 8.0
IDBI 14,251 16,243 (12.3) 8.0
CANBK 19,884 18,113 9.8 8.0
BOB 25,155 22,617 11.2 7.8
VIJBK 5,000 4,636 7.9 7.4
UCOBK* 9,717 8,743 11.1 7.0
UTDBK 4,781 4,555 5.0 7.0
CRPBK 7,887 7,676 2.7 6.8
UNBK 13,235 11,626 13.8 6.7
SYNDBK 9,657 9,126 5.8 6.5
FEDBK 2,500 2,054 21.7 6.1
BOI* 16,231 16,353 (0.7) 5.3
SIB 1,540 1,641 (6.2) 4.9
JKBK 1,688 1,490 13.2 4.3
SBI 44,811 43,111 3.9 4.2
AXSB 4,211 4,368 (3.6) 2.1
ICICIBK 5,915 5,315 11.3 2.0
YESBK* 140 144 (3.3) 0.3
HDFCBK 517 479 7.9 0.2
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:*standard restructuring book
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Divergence in Earnings continues - New Private Banks deliver
strong performance, while PSUs and old private banks report
weak performance
Over the last few years, PSU banks have continuously lost profit market share (both
on reported profit as well as on profit adjusted for increase in net NPAs) within our
coverage. This could be primarily attributed to their relatively high exposure to
overleveraged companies in sensitive sectors, whose financials have bore the most
severe brunt of slowing economic growth and persisting burden of elevated interest
servicing costs.
As far as reported profit is concerned, the market share for PSU banks have
noticeably declined from 77% in FY2010 to 68% in FY2013, however, the decline is
much sharper in case of profit adjusted for increase in net NPAs, where PSU banks
have witnessed market share erosion of ~25%, from 71% in FY2010 to 47% in
FY2013. In 1QFY2014, PSU banks, on an aggregate basis, have reported earnings
of `12,053cr, however, have also witnessed `19,876cr increase in net NPA levels
during the quarter, thereby leading to loss of `7,824cr, on an adjusted basis.
Exhibit 21:Profit market share trends for our coverage Banks PSU Banks losing significantlyBanks Reported Profit Profit adjusted for increase in Net NPAsFY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 1QFY14 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 1QFY14PSU banks 35,974 41,390 46,240 47,620 12,053 27,852 35,610 25,420 19,114 (7,824)
Mid 11,995 14,205 14,863 14,625 3,745 9,028 12,524 5,906 2,388 (2,332)
Large 23,980 27,186 31,377 32,995 8,308 18,824 23,086 19,515 16,726 (5,491)
Private Banks 10,664 14,072 18,030 22,872 6,148 11,561 15,554 18,425 21,759 5,565Old 698 879 1,178 1,340 221 710 819 1,154 934 180
New 9,966 13,193 16,852 21,532 5,928 10,851 14,735 17,272 20,825 5,385
Market sharePSU Banks (%) 77 75 72 68 66 71 70 58 47 (346)
Mid 26 26 23 21 21 23 24 13 6 (103)
Large 51 49 49 47 46 48 45 45 41 (243)
Private Banks (%) 23 25 28 32 34 29 30 42 53 246old 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 8
new 22 24 26 31 33 28 29 39 51 238
Source: Company, Angel Research
During 1QFY2014, New Private Banks delivered a strong earnings growth of 28.3%
yoy. On the other hand, PSU and old Private Banks reported a weak performance,
primarily marred by elevated asset quality pressures and slower growth. During the
quarter, PSU banks posted a bottom-line decline of 7.4% yoy (within which mid-
PSUs reported higher earnings de-growth of 12.2% as against 4.9% for larger ones),
while old private banks reported largely flat performance during the quarter.
On the NII front, while new Private Banks reported a strong performance with
growth of 26.8% yoy, old Private Banks too witnessed a healthy growth of 16.6%
yoy. Affected by elevated asset quality pressures, PSU banks reported a modest NII
growth of 7.0% yoy.
During the quarter, a favorable yield movement aided almost all banks to book
heavy treasury gains and hence other income growth during the quarter came in at
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August 28, 2013 15
a substantial 49.5% yoy for PSU banks and 38.9% yoy for Private Banks. Despite a
moderate NII performance, strong other income growth (largely on back of heavy
treasury gains) aided PSU banks, both mid and large, to report operating income
growth of 22.0% and 14.1%, yoy respectively. On the operating income front,private banks reported a strong performance with a growth of 29.8% yoy.
Apart from the impending wage revision, which all PSU banks continued to provide
during the quarter, unlike other PSU banks, SBI also provided for higher retirement
benefits on account of change in longevity assumptions (`600cr during the quarter,
which is to continue at same pace over the next three quarters). As a result,
operating expenses grew by 25.6% and 19.8% yoy, respectively for large PSU banks
and mid-PSU banks. Consequently, the operating profit grew at a modest pace of
5.6% yoy for large PSU banks, while the same grew at a much higher pace of 23.8%
yoy for mid-PSU ones. Persistent asset quality stress (evident in 43.6% yoy increase in
gross NPA levels of PSU banks), resulted in a 40.7% yoy increase in provisioningexpenses for PSU banks and hence, earnings for these banks declined by 4.7% yoy.
Exhibit 22:Large PSU banks P&LParameter (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg(qoq) 1QFY13 % chg(yoy)NII 26,221 25,657 2.2 24,591 6.6
Other Income 10,939 12,034 (9.1) 7,977 37.1
Operating Income 37,160 37,692 (1.4) 32,569 14.1Operating Expenses 17,392 17,883 (2.7) 13,847 25.6
Pre provision profit 19,768 19,809 (0.2) 18,722 5.6Provisions 8,072 11,045 (26.9) 6,299 28.2
PBT 11,696 8,764 33.5 12,423 (5.9)
Tax 3,388 479 607.0 3,685 (8.1)
Net Profit 8,308 8,285 0.3 8,738 (4.9)Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 23:Mid-PSU* banks P&LParameter (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg(qoq) 1QFY13 % chg(yoy)NII 14,772 14,362 2.9 13,707 7.8
Other Income 6,238 5,985 4.2 3,509 77.8
Operating Income 21,010 20,347 3.3 17,216 22.0Operating Expenses 9,100 9,747 (6.6) 7,594 19.8
Pre provision profit 11,910 10,600 12.4 9,622 23.8Provisions 6,402 7,418 (13.7) 3,987 60.6
PBT 5,507 3,182 73.1 5,635 (2.3)
Tax 1,641 (128) (1,379.2) 1,230 33.4
Net Profit 3,867 3,311 16.8 4,406 (12.2)Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:* all excl. SBI associate banks
On the other hand, Private Banks registered a 20.8% yoy increase in operating
expenses and hence, operating profit for them grew at a much higher pace of
37.5% yoy (37.0% yoy and 41.2% yoy for new and old private banks, respectively).
On the asset quality front, new Private Banks were not sparred from asset quality
pressures; however, they have faced relatively much lower pressures compared to
old Private banks. Gross NPA levels for new Private Banks increased by 11.0% yoy,
while for older ones it increased by a much higher 25.4% yoy. As a result, the
provisioning expenses for new Private Banks during the quarter witnessed an
increase of 67.7% yoy, while for older Private Banks it more than tripled on a yoy
basis. Overall, on the earnings front, while new private banks reported a strong
growth of 28.3% yoy, older ones reported flat earnings performances for the
quarter.
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Exhibit 24:New Private banks P&LParameter (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg(qoq) 1QFY13 % chg(yoy)NII 13,360 12,966 3.0 10,534 26.8
Other Income 7,566 7,130 6.1 5,593 35.3
Operating Income 20,926 20,096 4.1 16,127 29.8Operating Expenses 8,862 8,899 (0.4) 7,321 21.0
Pre provision profit 12,064 11,197 7.7 8,806 37.0Provisions 2,230 1,573 41.8 1,330 67.7
PBT 9,834 9,625 2.2 7,476 31.5
Tax 3,168 2,770 14.4 2,281 38.9
Net Profit 6,665 6,855 (2.8) 5,195 28.3Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 25:Old Private banks* P&LParameter (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg(qoq) 1QFY13 % chg(yoy)NII 2,295 2,208 3.9 1,968 16.6
Other Income 1,199 1,023 17.2 719 66.7
Operating Income 3,494 3,231 8.1 2,687 30.0Operating Expenses 1,631 1,670 (2.3) 1,367 19.3
Pre provision profit 1,863 1,561 19.4 1,320 41.2Provisions 741 472 56.9 207 258.1
PBT 1,122 1,089 3.1 1,113 0.9
Tax 350 154 127.0 334 5.0
Net Profit 772 934 (17.4) 779 (0.9)Source: Company, Angel Research, *all listed
Exhibit 26:Advances* growth (%)Banks-Type 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg(qoq) 1QFY13 % chg(yoy)Large PSU 2,623,880 2,618,480 0.2 2,357,536 11.3
Mid PSU 1,585,449 1,565,991 1.2 1,377,491 15.1
New Pvt. 903,972 866,725 4.3 771,011 17.2
Old Pvt. 195,443 195,907 (0.2) 169,684 15.2
Grand Total 5,308,743 5,247,103 1.2 4,675,722 13.5Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:* all listed excl. DHB, PSB, SBM, SBT
Exhibit 27:Deposits* growth (%)Banks-Type 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg(qoq) 1QFY13 % chg(yoy)Large PSU 3,373,014 3,296,757 2.3 2,958,479 14.0
Mid PSU 2,011,931 1,998,279 0.7 1,741,178 15.6
New Pvt. 1,006,280 1,013,575 (0.7) 884,872 13.7
Old Pvt. 264,761 262,208 1.0 227,115 16.6
Grand Total 6,655,985 6,570,819 1.3 5,811,644 14.5Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:* all listed excl. DHB, PSB, UTDBK,
SBM and SBT
Exhibit 28:DuPont analysis for our coverage universePvt. New PSU Large PSU Mid
Parameter FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ENII 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4
(-) Prov. Exp. 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7
Adj. NII 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7
Treasury (0.0) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.11 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.14 0.1 0.0
Int. Sens. Inc. 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.8
Other Inc. 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Op. Inc. 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3
Opex 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4
PBT 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9
Taxes 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
ROA 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6Leverage 10.9 10.7 10.6 11.1 18.6 17.4 17.4 17.8 21.0 20.5 20.7 21.1
ROE 16.5 17.6 17.9 18.6 17.2 14.9 12.2 13.8 15.9 13.2 10.8 12.5Source: Company, Angel Research
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MTM losses lower post RBIs relaxation; however still remain
significant to affect overall earnings
Recent series of RBI measures to tighten domestic liquidity so as to check exchange
rate volatility has led to significant surge in interest rates across the yield curve. Since
July 15, 2013 (when first such measures were announced) to till date, interest rates
across the yield curve have inched up considerably (higher for shorter maturities,
thereby inverting the yield curve). While CD/CP rates are considerably higher by
250-350bp, both sovereign and corporate bond yields across various maturity
buckets have increased anywhere between 100-125bp.
Indian banks, having realized significant treasury gains in 1QFY2014, are sitting on
heavy MTM losses in their AFS/HFT investment book. As a one off measure, the RBI
has recently allowed banks to move SLR securities to HTM from AFS/HFT category
upto the limit of 24.5%, at cost or market value as at the end of July 15, 2013,
whichever is lower. The move is positive primarily for State Bank of India (SBI),
Canara Bank and OBC, as they have had higher headroom available within the
24.5% limit. Moreover, the RBI also allowed banks to spread over the remaining
MTM loss over the next three quarters. Considering AFS positioning as of June 30,
2013 along with RBI relaxations, still PSU banks like SBI, Canara Bank, PNB,
Corporation Bank and Union Bank are expected to witness significant MTM losses
during 2QFY2014.
Exhibit 29:CP/CD rates inched up after RBI measures
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 30:Bond yields too inched up
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
8.3
4
8.4
2
8.8
2
7.9
4
7.9
9
8.2
0
7.9
3
8.4
4
8.8
6
7.4
5
8.0
2
8.3
2
12.1
3
12.2
8
11.7
1
10.7
8
11.0
1
10.5
3
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
CP 1M CP 3M CP 12M CD 1M CD 3M CD 12M
(%) 30-Jun-13 15-Jul-13 27-Aug-13
8.7
3
8.6
9
8.6
2
7.4
6
7.7
0
7.4
6
8.9
2
8.9
2
8.8
3
7.5
0
7.8
4
7.5
6
10.7
5
9.9
3
9.7
3
9.8
4
9.1
2
8.5
9
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
AAA 1 Yr AAA 5 Yr AAA 10 Yr Gsec 1Yr Gsec 5Yr Gsec 10Yr
(%) 30-J un-13 15-J ul-13 27-Aug-13
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Exhibit 31:MTM losses for banks post RBI relaxations
Bank HTM(` cr)
% ofDep$
AFS(` cr)
% ofDep$
HeadroomAvail.(24.5 -HTM, in %)
Headroomas % ofAFS book
Mod.Duration
MTM losses@100bpmovementpost RBIrelaxations(` cr)
Qtrly MTMimpact, as RBIallowedspreading ofMTM losses
CANBK 65,551 17.2 69,295 18.1 7.3 40.5 3.75 1,547 516IOB 45,086 23.0 13,836 7.1 1.5 21.6 4.71 511 170
ALLBK 34,197 19.0 23,807 13.2 5.5 41.8 3.01 417 139
CENTBK 53,485 23.2 21,659 9.4 1.3 14.1 3.00 558 186BOI 67,575 21.4 37,508 11.9 3.1 26.2 1.67 462 154
BOM NA NA 6,686 6.3 NA NA 3.00 NA NA
CRPBK 37,000 22.7 26,177 16.1 1.8 11.2 3.78 878 293PNB 86,525 21.8 45,626 11.5 2.7 23.4 4.66 1,628 543DENABK 24,722 26.2 6,825 7.2 - - 5.29 361 120SYNBK 34,676 19.0 11,369 6.2 5.5 88.3 3.00 40 13
OBC 25,757 14.6 23,609 13.4 9.9 73.8 4.54 281 94
UNBK 68,733 25.3 22,864 8.4 - - 2.91 665 222BOB 75,433 23.3 20,332 6.3 1.2 19.7 2.90 474 158
ANDHBK NA NA 8,000 6.4 NA NA 3.00 NA NA
JKBK 15,700 26.8 6,033 10.3 - - 2.84 171 57
FEDBK NA NA 3,000 5.3 NA NA 2.76 NA NA
INDBK 30,074 20.1 16,690 11.2 4.4 39.4 3.00 303 101
IDBI 67,300 36.7 17,721 9.7 - - 1.30 230 77
VIJAYA NA NA 11,323 10.7 NA NA 2.76 NA NA
SBI 233,000 19.7 160,000 13.5 4.8 35.2 3.40 3,522 1,174Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *due to unavailability of data regarding AFS duration, conservatively assumed it to be 3 years,# from the closing
10 year G sec yields on June 30, 2013, $due to unavailability of data regarding NDTL uniformly for all our coverage banks, we have used total deposits for
all and domestic deposits for BOB, SBI and BOI, hence the actual headroom to banks might be lower than depicted here
Capital Adequacy low for many PSU banks
Tier-I CAR, under Basel-III remains low for many PSU banks. As of 1QFY2014,
amongst our coverage, Bank of Maharashtra, Dena Bank, Indian Overseas Bank,
IDBI Bank, Central Bank, Corporation Bank and Allahabad Bank had the lowest tier-
I CAR in the range of 6.8-7.8%. Moreover, PSU banks like UCO Bank, Vijaya Bank,
Central Bank, United Bank, Bank of Maharashtra (BOM), Indian Bank and UnionBank also have sizeable preference capital, implying that core equity tier-I for these
banks would be even lower.
The government has budgeted `14,000cr for capital infusion in PSU banks for the
current fiscal. Most of the PSU banks (SBI, BOM, Dena Bank, Indian Overseas Bank
(IOB), and Syndicate Bank to name a few) have submitted requests for capital
infusion already. The government is likely to finalize allocation of budget amount
within these banks in the next few months. However, all PSU banks are now trading
much below their book value, implying significant book-dilution for existing
shareholders if the capital is to be infused now at current valuations. There is also a
need to consider dividend payout policy and capital raising via rights issue forPSU banks, as healthy dividend payout by these banks coupled with capital infusion
on preferential basis by the government at below book valuations is detrimental to
the interests of existing shareholders.
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Exhibit 32:Tier-I and Total CRAR under Basel-III, as of 1QFY2014Bank Tier-I CRAR Bank Tier-I CRARBOM 6.8 10.8 PNB 9.1 11.8
DENABK 7.0 10.6 YESBK 9.5 15.4
IOB 7.1 10.9 HDFCBK 10.5 15.5
IDBIBK 7.7 12.6 JKBK 11.7 13.6
CNTBK 7.7 11.3 ICICIBK 12.1 17.4
CRPBK 7.7 11.3 AXSB 12.3 16.4
ALBK 7.8 10.6 BOB NA 12.5
UNBK 8.1 9.9 INBK NA 11.6
SYNDBK 8.1 11.5 ANDBK NA 11.2
OBC 8.7 11.0 UTDBK NA 10.8
UCOBK 8.7 13.4 VIJBK NA 10.6
SBI 8.8 11.9 BOI NA 10.4
CANBK 9.0 11.4 SIB NA NA
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and Valuation
Elevated interest rates, weakening growth, and a volatile currency would ensure that
the earnings pressures for Indian banks will increase here on. PSU banks, apart
from the cyclical headwinds mentioned above, also face structural challenges in
terms of a) low capital adequacy (for many of them; which increases the risk of
book dilutive capital raising and hurt growth prospects), and b) highercompetitive intensity (not only loss of deposits and credit market share, but also of
profitability - as current credit cycle evidently highlights adverse asset selection on
part of PSUs and superior selection by private banks in the past, which is reflecting
in their performance now). Although valuations for all of them are below their
historic lows, their fundamental investment case appears weak enough to avoid
them, until clarity emerges on macro front.
Overall, we have a cautious stance on the sector and would recommend staying
with the defensives in the near term. After the recent correction in prices, HDFC Bank
becomes a Buy for us. We like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, which in our view, offers
value over a medium to long term perspective, though we do not rule the
possibilities of these stocks undershooting the fair value estimates in the near term,given the fragile macro environment.
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Exhibit 33:Recommendation summaryCompany Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%) FY2015EP/ABV (x) FY2015ETgt. P/ABV (x) FY2015EP/E (x) FY2013-15EEPS CAGR (%) FY2015ERoA (%) FY2015ERoE (%)AxisBk Buy 839 1,023 22 0.9 1.1 5.3 19.1 1.6 18.1
FedBk Neutral 257 - - 0.6 - 4.9 2.9 1.0 12.3
HDFCBk Buy 562 692 23 2.6 3.3 12.5 26.3 1.9 22.8
ICICIBk* Buy 797 951 19 1.1 1.4 8.2 15.8 1.6 15.4
SIB Neutral 19 - - 0.7 - 4.6 5.7 0.9 16.2
YesBk Neutral 226 - - 0.9 - 4.6 16.9 1.3 22.8
AllBk Neutral 67 - - 0.3 - 2.2 12.6 0.6 12.4
AndhBk Neutral 50 - - 0.4 - 3.0 (15.1) 0.5 10.0
BOB Neutral 445 - - 0.5 - 3.6 8.3 0.8 14.2
BOI Neutral 131 - - 0.3 - 2.1 16.2 0.7 13.9
BOM Neutral 37 - - 0.4 - 3.2 5.4 0.5 14.1
CanBk Neutral 195 - - 0.4 - 3.2 (3.4) 0.6 10.4CentBk Neutral 50 - - 0.5 - 3.2 40.1 0.5 12.8
CorpBk Neutral 252 - - 0.3 - 2.6 2.3 0.7 13.5
DenaBk Neutral 43 - - 0.3 - 2.0 (3.3) 0.6 13.2
IDBI# Neutral 57 - - 0.3 - 2.6 25.1 0.8 13.3
IndBk Neutral 63 - - 0.2 - 1.9 (4.2) 0.8 12.4
IOB Neutral 39 - - 0.3 - 2.5 57.5 0.5 10.5
J&KBk Neutral 1,053 - - 0.8 - 5.2 (3.5) 1.3 16.3
OBC Neutral 126 - - 0.3 - 2.4 7.4 0.6 11.1
PNB Neutral 435 - - 0.4 - 2.6 10.8 1.0 15.7
SBI* Neutral 1,498 - - 0.9 - 6.6 4.7 0.8 13.9
SynBk Neutral 65 - - 0.3 - 2.8 (16.0) 0.6 12.8
UcoBk Neutral 51 - - 0.5 - 3.3 66.4 0.6 13.5
UnionBk Neutral 100 - - 0.3 - 2.5 6.2 0.6 13.4
UtdBk Neutral 30 - - 0.2 - 1.5 54.6 0.6 14.7
VijBk Neutral 34 - - 0.4 - 3.8 (0.4) 0.4 9.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
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Banking indicators watchExhibit 34:Credit and deposit growth trends
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Exhibit 35:Investment-Deposit ratio
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Exhibit 36:CP rates have gone up considerably...
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Exhibit 37:...similar to CD rates
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 38:RBI limits LAF borrowings...
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Exhibit 39:...resulting in higher MSF borrowings @ 10.25%
Source: RBI, Angel Research
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-1
0
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-1
1
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-1
2
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-1
3
Apr-13
Jul-13
Credit growth (%) Depos it growth (%)
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Credit/Depos it (%) Investment/Depos it (%) - RHS
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
(%) CP 3M CP 12M
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
(%) CD 3M CD 12M
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
(` bn)
(700)
(600)
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
(` bn)
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Exhibit 40:Forex reserves trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research;
Exhibit 41:G-Sec yields spread vs. Repo rate
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Sectoral and Industry-wise distribution of credit
Exhibit 42:Industry and Personal loans aids credit growthSector June 2012 June 2013(` cr) % of total (` cr) % of total % chg (yoy)Agriculture 550,808 12.5 605,140 12.1 9.9
Industry 2,000,577 45.4 2,282,018 45.7 14.1
- Micro & Small 241,564 5.5 292,753 5.9 21.2
- Medium 117,787 2.7 132,112 2.6 12.2
- Large 1,641,226 37.3 1,857,154 37.2 13.2
Services 1,043,374 23.7 1,169,882 23.4 12.1
Personal Loans 808,484 18.4 934,773 18.7 15.6
- Housing 414,357 9.4 484,899 9.7 17.0
- Vehicle 93,981 2.1 116,705 2.3 24.2
Non-food Credit 4,403,243 100.0 4,991,813 100.0 13.4Source: RBI, Angel Research
Exhibit 43:Strong growth in Food processing, Gems & JewelryIndustry June 2012 June 2013(` cr) % of total (` cr) % of total % chg (yoy)Infrastructure 648,830 32.4 772,721 33.9 19.1Metals 266,412 13.3 321,912 14.1 20.8
Textiles 161,518 8.1 185,150 8.1 14.6
Engineering 116,531 5.8 133,549 5.9 14.6
Chemicals 126,885 6.3 148,029 6.5 16.7
Food Processing 92,796 4.6 124,559 5.5 34.2
Oil and Gas 62,036 3.1 56,610 2.5 (8.7)
Construction 49,145 2.5 53,835 2.4 9.5
Vehicles 56,049 2.8 60,815 2.7 8.5
Gems & Jewelry 53,608 2.7 68,574 3.0 27.9
Other Industries 366,766 18.3 356,263 15.6 (2.9)
Total 2,000,577 100.0 2,282,018 100.0 14.1Source: RBI, Angel Research
240
260
280
300
320
340
Sep-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
Apr-13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Aug-1
3
US$ Bns
0
2
4
6
8
10
(3.00)
(2.00)
(1.00)
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Oct-05
Feb-0
6
Jul-06
Dec-0
6
May-0
7
Oct-07
Mar-08
Aug-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jun-0
9
Nov-0
9
Apr-10
Sep-1
0
Feb-1
1
Jul-11
Nov-1
1
Apr-12
Sep-1
2
Feb-1
3
Jul-13
G sec 1 yr and 10 yr yie ld spread (%) Repo Rate (%) - RHS
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Valuation watch
Exhibit 44:Private banks* P/ABV trend
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Pvt. banks under our coverage
Exhibit 45:Public sector banks P/ABV trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 46:New private* banks P/ABV trend
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *New Pvt. banks under our coverage
Exhibit 47:Large public sector banks P/ABV trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 48:Old private* banks P/ABV trend
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Old Pvt. banks under our coverage
Exhibit 49:Mid-cap* public sector banks P/ABV trend
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:*Mid and small PSU banks
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Nov-0
4
Jun-0
5
Jan-0
6
Aug-0
6
Mar-07
Oct-07
May-0
8
Dec-0
8
Jul-09
Feb-1
0
Sep-1
0
Apr-11
Nov-1
1
Jun-1
2
Jan-1
3
Aug-1
3
P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
2.00
Nov-0
4
Apr-05
Sep-0
5
Feb-0
6
Jul-06
Dec-0
6
May-0
7
Oct-07
Mar-08
Aug-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jun-0
9
Nov-0
9
Apr-10
Sep-1
0
Feb-1
1
Jul-11
Dec-1
1
May-1
2
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-1
3
P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Nov-0
4
Jun-0
5
Jan-0
6
Aug-0
6
Mar-07
Oct-07
May-0
8
Dec-0
8
Jul-09
Feb-1
0
Sep-1
0
Apr-11
Nov-1
1
Jun-1
2
Jan-1
3
Aug-1
3
P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile
0.60
0.90
1.20
1.50
1.80
2.10
Nov-0
4
Apr-05
Sep-0
5
Feb-0
6
Jul-06
Dec-0
6
May-0
7
Oct-07
Mar-08
Aug-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jun-0
9
Nov-0
9
Apr-10
Sep-1
0
Feb-1
1
Jul-11
Dec-1
1
May-1
2
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-1
3
P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile
0.30
0.60
0.90
1.20
1.50
1.80
Nov-0
4
Apr-05
Sep-0
5
Feb-0
6
Jul-06
Dec-0
6
May-0
7
Oct-07
Mar-08
Aug-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jun-0
9
Nov-0
9
Apr-10
Sep-1
0
Feb-1
1
Jul-11
Dec-1
1
May-1
2
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-1
3
P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile
0.30
0.60
0.90
1.20
1.50
1.80
Nov-0
4
Apr-05
Sep-0
5
Feb-0
6
Jul-06
Dec-0
6
May-0
7
Oct-07
Mar-08
Aug-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jun-0
9
Nov-0
9
Apr-10
Sep-1
0
Feb-1
1
Jul-11
Dec-1
1
May-1
2
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-1
3
P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile
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Economy watch
Exhibit 50:Quarterly GDP trend
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 51:IIP trend
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 52:Monthly WPI inflation trend
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 53:Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Markit, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 54:Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 55:Policy rates - RBI
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Angel Research
9.3
7.7
11.4
9.5
8.69.2
9.9
7.5
6.56.0
5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
(%)
(0.1)
2.0
(0.7)
8.4
(1.0) (0.6)
2.5
0.6
3.5
1.9
(2.8)(2.2)
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
(%)
8.17.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3
5.7
4.8 4.6 4.9
5.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
(%)
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Mfg. PMI Services PMI
(15.0)
(12.0)
(9.0)
(6.0)
(3.0)
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. and its affiliates may haveinvestment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
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Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership Angel and its Group companies Angel and its Group companies' Broking relationshipof the stock ownership of the stock Directors ownership of the stock with company covered
AxisBk No No Yes No
FedBk No No No No
HDFCBk No No No No
ICICIBk No No No No
SIB No No No No
YesBk No No No No
AllBk No No No No
AndhBk No No No No
BOB No No No No
BOI No No No No
BOM No No No No
CanBk No No No No
CentBk No No No No
CorpBk No No No No
DenaBk No No No No
IDBI No No No No
IndBk No No No No
IOB No No No No
J&KBk No No No No
OBC No No No No
PNB No No No No
SBI No No Yes No
SynBk No No No No
UcoBk No No No No
UnionBk No No No No
UtdBk No No No No
VijBk No No No No
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7/30/2019 Banking Sector Update
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Banking | Sector Update
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Research Team
Fundamental:Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected]
Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected]
Bhavesh Chauhan Sr. Analyst (Metals & Mining) [email protected]
Viral Shah Sr. Analyst (Infrastructure) [email protected]
V Srinivasan Analyst (Cement, FMCG) [email protected]
Yaresh Kothari Analyst (Automobile) [email protected]
Ankita Somani Analyst (IT, Telecom) [email protected]
Sourabh Taparia Analyst (Banking) [email protected]
Bhupali Gursale Economist [email protected]
Vinay Rachh Research Associate [email protected]
Amit Patil Research Associate [email protected]
Twinkle Gosar Research Associate [email protected]
Tejashwini Kumari Research Associate [email protected]
Akshay Narang Research Associate [email protected]
Harshal Patkar Research Associate [email protected]
Nishant Sharma Research Associate [email protected]
Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected]
Sameet Chavan Technical Analyst [email protected]
Sacchitanand Uttekar Technical Analyst [email protected]
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives [email protected]
Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales [email protected]
Meenakshi Chavan Dealer [email protected]
Gaurang Tisani Dealer [email protected]
Production Team:
Tejas Vahalia Research Editor [email protected]
Dilip Patel Production Incharge [email protected]