auto sector update april 2013

7/30/2019 Auto Sector Update April 2013

1/12

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

For April 2013, domestic automakers continued reporting poor volumes, which is

largely on the expected line, due to a slowdown in economic activity and negative

consumer sentiments. The weakness was prevalent across all segments, which led

to a volume decline across the OEM coverage universe, with the only exception

being Mahindra & Mahindra. The slowdown continues to be prominent in the

medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV), tractor, passenger car, and

two-wheeler segments. Of late, sales in the utility vehicle (UV) and light commercial

vehicle (LCV) segments too have started to taper off on a higher base of the

corresponding previous year period. Going ahead, we expect volume growth to

remain sluggish in 1HFY2014 due to high inventory levels and weak consumer

sentiments. Nonetheless, we expect volumes to recover in 2HFY2014 led by further

easing of interest rates, festival demand and also due to favorable base effect.

Tata Motors (TTMT) continued with its poor performance in the passenger vehiclesegment (down 46.6% yoy) which resulted in a 14.9% yoy decline in total volumes

to 51,160 units in April 2013. Commercial vehicle sales though, posted a modest

growth of 5% yoy. The LCV segment slowed down considerably during the month

and managed to grow at a rate of only 6% as against a growth of ~18% recorded

in FY2013.

Ashok Leyland (AL) reported poor volumes with total sales posting a decline of13.8% yoy to 7,487 units led by continued weakness in the MHCV segment. Dost

volumes too remained flat during the month and recorded sales of 2,236 units.

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported slightly lower-than-expected volumes at 97,302units, down 3.1% yoy, largely due to the sharp fall in export volumes (down 33.3%

yoy) and also due to the slowing sales momentum in the the UV (down 4.9% yoy)

segment. However, the Mini segment registered a growth of 13.7% yoy on the

back of the low base of last year and the Super Compact segment posted a strong

growth of 25.4% yoy led by Dzire. The Management expects export volumes to

recover in May 2013.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) reported an in-line volume growth of 12.4% yoy to64,634 units, driven by a strong growth of 38.1% yoy (33.9% mom) in the tractor

segment. However, the automotive segment, which has been driving the

companys growth over the last one year, posted a muted growth of 1.8% yoy.

According to the Management, the additional 3% excise duty for ut ility vehicles that

was introduced in the Budget 2013-14 is impacting the sales of the segment.

Three-wheeler sales too witnessed a decline of13.4% yoy. The pick-up segment on

the other hand witnessed a healthy growth of 10.4% yoy.

Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Two-wheeler manufacturers in our coverageuniverse reported a disappointing performance yet again, led by subdued demand

on the back of weak consumer sentiments. Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) registered a sharpdecline of 9.8% yoy as sales in the motorcycle segment declined by 12.1% yoy.

Export sales too witnessed a decline of 22.9% yoy. Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) postedslightly lower-than-expected volumes with total sales registering a decline of 9.2%

yoy, due to slowdown in the domestic motorcycle industry. TVS Motor Company(TVSL) registered a 5.3% yoy decline in volumes led by continued slowdown in thetwo-wheeler segment (down 6.4% yoy).

Automobile SectorPoor start to FY2014

Monthly Update | April 2013

May 3, 2013

Yaresh Kothari+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844

[email protected]


2/12

Auto Sector Update | April 2013

May 3, 2013 2

Tata Motors

TTMT continued with its poor performance in the passenger vehicle segment(down 46.6% yoy) which resulted in a 14.9% yoy decline in total volumes to

51,160 units in April 2013. Commercial vehicle sales though, posted a

modest growth of 5% yoy.

During the month, the LCV segment slowed down considerably and managedto grow at a rate of only 6% as against a growth of ~18% recorded in

FY2013. The MHCV segment posted a modest growth of 6% yoy largely on

back of the low base of last year.

Within the passenger vehicle segment, passenger cars and UVs posted adecline of 49.3% and 34.4% yoy respectively.

Exhibit 1:Tata Motors Sales trendSegment April2013 April2012 % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chg

Total sales 51,160 60,086 (14.9) 810,086 906,579 (10.6)MHCV 10,638 10,338 2.9 152,505 221,297 (31.1)

LCV 28,124 26,522 6.0 428,643 363,890 17.8

CV 38,762 36,860 5.2 581,148 585,187 (0.7)Utility vehicles 2,717 4,141 (34.4) 48,583 56,138 (13.5)

Cars 9,681 19,085 (49.3) 180,355 265,254 (32.0)

PV 12,398 23,226 (46.6) 228,938 321,392 (28.8)Exports 3,565 2,781 28.2 50,831 63,078 (19.4)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:Domestic CV segment Monthly sales trend


(15.0)

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(%)(units) Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

TTMT continued its downslide on severe

weakness in PV and MHCV sales


3/12


May 3, 2013 3

Exhibit 3:Domestic PV segment Monthly sales trend


Ashok Leyland

AL reported poor volumes with total volumes posting a decline of 13.8% yoy to7,487 units.

The weakness in the MHCV segment persisted, which led to an 18.8% yoydecline in commercial vehicle sales during the month.

Dost volumes too remained flat during the month and recorded sales of 2,236units.

Exhibit 4:Ashok Leyland Sales trendApril2013 April2012 % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chg

Total sales 7,487 8,686 (13.8) 114,706 102,126 12.3CV (ex. Dost) 5,251 6,468 (18.8) 79,788 94,533 (15.6)

Dost 2,236 2,218 0.8 34,918 7,593 359.9


(80.0)

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60.080.0

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30,00035,000

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Apr-13


CV sales continue to remain under

pressure led by slowdown in industrial

activity


4/12


May 3, 2013 4

Exhibit 5:CV segment Monthly sales trend


Maruti Suzuki

MSIL reported slightly lower-than-expected volumes for the month due to asharp fall in export volumes (down 33.3% yoy) and also due to slowing sales

momentum in the UV (down 4.9% yoy) segment.

Total volumes registered a decline of 3.1% yoy to 97,302 units. During the month, while the Mini segment registered a growth of 13.7% yoy

largely due to the low base of last year, the Super Compact segment posted a

strong growth of 25.4% yoy led by Dzire. The Compact segment however,

registered a decline of 17.4% yoy in April 2013.

On the exports front, the Management expects volumes to recover in May2013.

Exhibit 6:Maruti Suzuki Sales trendSegment April2013 April2012 % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chgTotal sales 97,302 100,415 (3.1) 1,171,434 1,133,695 3.3A: Mini: M800, A-star,Alto, Wagon R

34,927 30,720 13.7 429,569 491,389 (12.6)

A: Compact:Swift, Estilo, Ritz 21,535 26,072 (17.4) 255,302 235,754 8.3

A: Super Compact: Dzire 19,446 15,510 25.4 169,571 110,132 54.0

A: Mid-size:SX4 601 634 (5.2) 6,707 17,997 (62.7)

A: Executive: Kizashi 0 3 (100.0) 188 458 (59.0)

Total passenger vehicles 76,509 72,939 4.9 861,337 855,730 0.7B: UV - Gypsy,Grand Vitara, Ertiga

5,318 5,593 (4.9) 79,192 6,525 1,113.7

C: Vans: Omni, Eeco 8,696 11,723 (25.8) 110,517 144,061 (23.3)

Total domestic sales 90,523 90,255 0.3 1,051,046 1,006,316 4.4Total exports 6,779 10,160 (33.3) 120,388 127,379 (5.5)


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(%)(units) Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

MSIL registered slightly lower-than-

expected sales led by a sharp fall in

export volumes


5/12


May 3, 2013 5

Exhibit 7:Total volumes - Monthly sales trend


Mahindra & Mahindra

MM reported an in-line volume growth of 12.4% yoy to 64,634 units, drivenby a strong growth of 38.1% yoy (33.9% mom) in the tractor segment.

However, the automotive segment, which has been driving the companys

growth over the last one year, posted a muted growth of 1.8% yoy.

According to the Management, the growth in the tractor segment was drivenby improved market sentiments in expectation of a normal monsoon.

The automotive segment registered a lower-than-expected growth of 1.8% yoyas the passenger vehicle segment posted an almost flat growth during the

month. The Management indicated that the additional 3% excise duty that was

introduced in the Budget 2013-14 is impacting sales in the UV segment. The

three-wheeler sales too witnessed a decline of13.4% yoy. The pick-up segment

on the other hand witnessed a healthy growth of 10.4% yoy.

According to the Management, high interest rates and fuel prices continue toimpact consumer sentiments, thereby affecting overall demand.

(80.0)

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MM registered in-line performance;

utility vehicle sales likely to remain under

pressure on account of hike in excise

duty and following intense competition


6/12


May 3, 2013 6

Exhibit 8:Mahindra & Mahindra Sales trendSegment April2013 April2012 % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chgTotal sales 64,634 57,515 12.4 787,256 718,586 9.6Passenger vehicles 20,748 20,554 0.9 279,270 220,056 26.9Four-wheel pick-up (GIO, Maxximo) 14,414 13,054 10.4 174,233 152,673 14.1

Three-wheelers (Champion, Alfa) 4,036 4,659 (13.4) 65,510 67,440 (2.9)

LCV/MHCV 704 1,028 (31.5) 11,902 13,818 (13.9)

Exports 1,530 1,420 7.7 32,456 29,177 11.2

Total automotive sales 41,432 40,715 1.8 563,371 483,164 16.6Tractor sales Domestic 22,196 16,049 38.3 211,596 221,730 (4.6)

Tractor sales Exports 1,006 751 34.0 12,289 13,692 (10.2)

Total tractor sales 23,202 16,800 38.1 223,885 235,422 (4.9)Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 9:PV segment Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 10:Tractor segment Monthly sales trend


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7/12


May 3, 2013 7

Bajaj Auto

BJAUT registered weak volumes, led by sluggish sales in the motorcyclesegment.

Total volumes registered a steep decline of 9.8% yoy to 344,178 units asmotorcycle sales witnessed a decline of 12.1% yoy.

Thee-wheeler volumes on the other hand registered a strong 10.4% yoy(26.8% mom) growth to 43,351 units during the month.

Export volumes too registered a decline of 22.9% yoy, primarily due toweakness in the companys major export markets like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh

and Egypt. On a sequential basis, total volumes grew 14.3% primarily due to

a 28.6% growth in exports. It should be noted that exports in March 2013

were impacted due to the goods being in transit.

Exhibit 11:Bajaj Auto Sales trendSegment April2013 April2012 % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chgTotal sales 344,178 381,590 (9.8) 4,237,162 4,349,560 (2.6)Motorcycles 300,827 342,324 (12.1) 3,757,105 3,834,405 (2.0)

Three-wheelers 43,351 39,266 10.4 480,057 515,155 (6.8)

Exports (included above) 130,329 169,010 (22.9) 1,547,157 1,579,824 (2.1)


Exhibit 12:Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend


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(%)(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS)

BJAUT reported weak sales led by

slowdown in demand in the domestic as

well as export markets


8/12


May 3, 2013 8

Exhibit 13:Three-wheeler segment Monthly sales trend


Hero MotoCorp

HMCL registered slightly lower-than-expected volumes with total sales postinga decline of 9.2% yoy to 499,113 units. However, retail sales of the company

outpaced the wholesale sales and stood at 550,000 units.

Considering the ongoing slowdown in the two-wheeler industry, the companylowered its dispatches to the dealers in order to prevent unwarranted build-up

in inventory.

Exhibit 14:Hero MotoCorp Sales trendApril2013 April2012 % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chg

Total sales 499,113 549,555 (9.2) 6,073,581 6,235,195 (2.6)Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 15:HMCL Monthly sales trend


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(%)(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS)

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HMCL registered lower-than-expected

performance due to the slowdown in

the domestic motorcycle industry


9/12


May 3, 2013 9

TVS Motor

TVSL reported an in-line volume performance with total volumes posting adecline of 5.3% yoy (1.4% mom) to 165,215 units.

The company continued with its weak performance in the two-wheelersegment (down 6.4% yoy) led by sluggish demand in the motorcycle and

scooter segments, due to which the sales in the segments declined by 0.2%

and 17.1% yoy respectively.

On the positive side, three-wheelers continued with their strong momentumand posted a growth of 62.3% yoy driven by exports.

The overall exports however, registered a decline of 2.5% yoy during themonth. The companys Management expects export volumes to touch a

monthly run-rate of 28,000-30,000 units within the next six months.

Exhibit 16:TVS Motor Sales trendSegment April2013 April2012 % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chgTotal sales 165,215 174,455 (5.3) 2,032,515 2,198,493 (7.5)Motorcycles 67,849 67,966 (0.2) 749,973 843,338 (11.1)

Scooters 29,692 35,833 (17.1) 441,634 529,095 (16.5)

Mopeds 62,961 67,752 (7.1) 792,069 785,942 0.8

Total two-wheelers 160,502 171,551 (6.4) 1,983,676 2,158,375 (8.1)Three-wheelers 4,713 2,904 62.3 48,839 40,118 21.7

Exports (included above) 21,714 22,272 (2.5) 245,628 288,442 (14.8)Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 17:Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend


(40.0)

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Apr-12

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TVSLs performance continues to be

impacted by the on-going slowdown

and rising competition in the industry


10/12


May 3, 2013 10

Exhibit 18:Scooter segment Monthly sales trend


Outlook

While the near-term environment continues to remain challenging for the

automotive sector, we believe the long-term structural growth drivers for the

industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban

consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global

players and easy availability of finance, remain intact. We continue to prefer stocks

that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets and

command superior pricing power. We maintain our positive stance on AshokLeyland, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors.Exhibit 19:Relative valuation and recommendationCompanies Reco. CMP(`) TP(`)

Sales (` cr) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) FY13-15EEPS CAGR (%)Y14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15EAL Buy 23 27 13,833 16,192 11.5 8.5 1.9 1.7 12.1 15.2 5.3 4.4 43.9

BJAUT Accumulate 1,812 2,014 22,552 25,498 15.4 13.5 5.6 4.4 40.2 36.6 10.3 8.6 13.8

HMCL Accumulate 1,610 1,819 25,274 27,658 14.6 11.5 5.3 4.2 39.8 40.7 7.5 6.7 14.9

MSIL Accumulate 1,666 1,847 48,455 55,723 15.4 13.5 2.3 2.0 16.2 16.0 7.7 6.6 24.7

MM Neutral 959 - 44,550 50,260 16.1 14.1 3.3 2.8 22.3 21.6 8.9 7.3 11.5

TTMT* Accumulate 285 327 209,065 230,032 8.7 7.2 1.9 1.5 23.4 23.3 4.1 3.4 17.6

TVSL Neutral 39 - 7,715 8,584 7.9 6.8 1.3 1.2 18.1 18.5 2.9 2.2 15.3

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on May 3, 2013; *Consolidated financials

(40.0)

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May 3, 2013 11

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership Angel and its Group companies Angel and its Group companies' Broking relationshipof the stock ownership of the stock Directors ownership of the stock with company covered

Ashok Leyland No No No No

Tata Motors No No No No

Maruti Suzuki No No No No

Mahindra & Mahindra No No No No

Bajaj Auto No No No No

Hero MotoCorp No No No No

TVS Motor No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)


12/12


May 3 2013 12

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Research Team

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auto sector update april 2013

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