atmospheric research using risk assessment to inform adaptation roger n. jones in-session workshop...
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Atmospheric Research
Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation
Roger N. Jones
In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To, Climate Change
Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany
18 June 2004
Atmospheric Research
Risk
Can be broadly defined as the likelihood of an adverse event or outcome
How does this relate to Article 2 of the UNFCCC?
Atmospheric Research
Article 2 UNFCCC
Aims to prevent dangerous
anthropogenic climate change
by stabilising greenhouse gas emissions,
thus allowing
Ecosystems to adapt naturally
Food security to be maintained
Sustainable development to proceed
Hazard
Consequence
Management
criteria
Through adaptation and mitigationManagem
ent options
Atmospheric Research
Scales of “dangerous” climate change
Global thresholds of criticality – Grounded ice sheet melts, – N. Hemisphere flips to cold conditions, – Amazon wilts and burns due to heat and drought
Global in scale but very unlikely to occur ( with T)
Local thresholds of criticalityAny activity where: – the harm caused exceeds given levels of tolerance – impacts become non-viable with no reasonable substitute
Local in scale, number and severity increasing with T,benefits fewer with T
Atmospheric Research
Linking climate to adaptation over time
Climate system
Impacted activity
Socio-economicsystem
Current climate
Future climate
Future adaptations
Current adaptations
Atmospheric Research
Measuring the ability to cope
Loss Profit
Profit
Loss
Loss
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable Probability
Critical Threshold
Critical Threshold
CopingRange
Atmospheric Research
Coping under climate change
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Changing Climate
Planning Horizon
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Changing Climate
Planning Horizon
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Atmospheric Research
Adapting through the coping range
Assess risk
Manage risk
No adaptation
Autonomous adaptation
Critical risk
Coping range → Adaptive capacity
Mitigation
Adaptation
Mitigative capacity ←
Danger
Atmospheric Research
Adapting (generic)Improve technology access
Institutional reform
Improved equity
Access to information
Build social capital
Access to wealth creation
Adapting (specific)Mainstreaming adaptation
Natural resource management
New technology
Disaster planning
Retrofit existing structures
Build resilience/resistance
Autonomous adaptation
Assess risk
Manage risk
No adaptation
Autonomous adaptation
Critical risk
Coping range → Adaptive capacity
Mitigation
Adaptation
Mitigative capacity ←
Danger
Adapting (transformative)Replace activity
Abandon activity
Transform activity
Atmospheric Research
Different activities have different adaptive capacities
Coral Reefs
Developed Country Agriculture
Developing Country Agriculture
Protected Coastal Infrastructure
Atmospheric Research
Adaptation and mitigation
• Adaptation increases the coping range through biological and social means
• Mitigation reduces the magnitude and frequency of greenhouse-related climate hazards
Therefore, they are complementary, not interchangeable.
They also reduce different areas of climate uncertainty
Atmospheric Research
Some major methods
1. Natural hazards methodRisk = Hazard ×Vulnerability(what are the likely damages?)
2. Vulnerability-based methodRisk = Probability × Consequence(what is the likelihood of exceeding a given state of
vulnerability?)
3. Policy assessmentDoes a given policy increase or decrease risk under
climate change?
Atmospheric Research
Selecting a method
Natural Hazard• Probabilities of hazard
constrained
• Main drivers known
• Chain of consequences understood
• P(Hazard) × Consequences
Exploratory
Vulnerability• Probabilities not
constrained
• Many drivers
• Multiple pathways and feedbacks
• P(Vulnerability)
e.g. critical threshold exceedance
Normative
Atmospheric Research
Likelihood of threshold exceedance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 100
Probability exceedance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 5
Probability density
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Tem
pera
ture
Incr
ease
(°C
)
2.5°C Threshold
1°C Threshold
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Sea
Lev
el R
ise
(cm
) 75cm Threshold
25cm Threshold
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 6
Probability density
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 100
Probability exceedance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 100
Probability exceedance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 5
Probability density
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Tem
pera
ture
Incr
ease
(°C
)
2.5°C Threshold
1°C Threshold
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Sea
Lev
el R
ise
(cm
) 75cm Threshold
25cm Threshold
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 6
Probability density
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 100
Probability exceedance
Almost certain
Highly likely
Least likely
Low probability, extreme outcomes
Damage to the most sensitive, many benefits
Increased damage to
many systems, fewer benefits
Considerable damage to most
systems
Moderately likely
Probability Consequence
Core benefits of adaptation and mitigation
Probability – the likelihood of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warmingConsequence – the effect of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming
Risk = Probability × Consequence
Vulnerable to current climate
Happening now
Atmospheric Research
Activities most at risk
Those where • critical thresholds are exceeded at low
levels of global warming, • adaptive capacity is low and/or
adaptation is prohibitively expensive, difficult or unknown and
• the consequences of exceeding those thresholds are judged to be serious
Atmospheric Research
Resources
• UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
www.undp.org/cc/apf.htm
• UKCIP Willow and Connell (2003)
www.ukcip.org.uk/risk_uncert