assessement and mitigation of climate change risks for ethnic minority in the marginal food security...
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ASSESSEMENT AND MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS FOR ETHNIC MINORITY IN THE MARGINAL
FOOD SECURITY AREA: CASE STUDY IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS AREA, VIETNAM
by: Tran Van The, Ph.D.Institute for Agricultural Environment (IAE)
Presentation in 1st Regional Policy Dissemination and Consultation Workshop in Royal Orchid Sheraton Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand, 11th September, 2014
STUDY TEAM
Do Thi Hong Dung, MSc(Environmental Science)
Mai Van Trinh Ph.D.(Ecologist and modelling)
Le Hoang Anh, MSc. (Ecologist and Irrigation)
N.T. L. Huong, Ph.D. (Economist)
D.T.T. Hien, MSc. (Crop sciences))
Tran Van The, Ph.D. (NRE, Team leader)
THANK TO…..
Institute for Agricultural Environment (IAE)
Ministry of AgricultureAnd Rural Development (MARD)
International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO)
o Introductiono Objectiveso Methodologyo Provincial statemento Signs and vulnerabilityo Impact of climate changeo Climate riskso Mitigation options to climate
riskso Key barriers to options of
mitigationo Conclusion and suggestion
OUTLINE
INTRODUCTIONo Vietnam, most serious affected
countries by climate change;o Agriculture, most serious affected,
more sensitive and slow recovered by CC
o NMR (14 provinces): high minority ethnic; 9.5 million ha, low income proportion of agriculture (16,4%); complicated topography (mountains, hills and remote area);
o More than 83% population are living in agriculture; face challenges of climate change impact, supports of policies and actions for adaptive measures
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVESGeneral objective:
Capacity building for farmers to response to climate change, sustainable agriculture development, livelihood for farmers in northern mountainous region;
Specific objectives:o Assess and analysis CC risks due to
impact of climate changeo Asesse and computed CC
vulnerability index; o Assess and analysis on local
adaptive practiceso Recommend some adaptive
measures for agriculture and livelihood
METHODOLOGYSelected study site
Ha Giang (Dong Van, Bac Quang)
Bac Kan (Ba Be, Bach Thong)
METHODOLOGY
o Reffered the previous studies
o Rapid Rural Appraisal (RRA)
o Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA);
o Participatory approaches (PA)
o Bottleneck analysiso SWOT
o Vulnerability Index (VI):
)()min(
ii
iii MinXMaxX
XXV
)()(
jj
jjj MinXMaxX
XMaxXV
n
VVI
n
iij
1
METHODOLOGY
Cruz và cs., 2007, Ranganathan và cs., 2009)
PROVINCIAL AGRICULTURAL STATEMENTLanduse, 2012
Main livelihood sources, 2012Bac Kan pro.Rice - Spring rice- Autum rice MaizeSweet potatoCassavaSugar caneCanaSoybeanSwineCowBuffaloPoultryForestTourism
PROVINCIAL AGRICULTURAL STATEMENT
Ha Giang pro.Rice- Spring rice- Autum rice MaizeSweet potatoCassavaMuccunaCanaSwineCowBuffaloPoultryForestTourismCardamonTeaHandicraft
SIGNS AND VULNERABILITY
Signs
Perceptions in Bac Kan province
Pro. Level
CommunityBach
ThongBa Be dist
Temperatureo Increased in summer x - xo Very hot in sometimes x x xo Very cold in some times x x xo Changed from 4 to 2 season x - -Rainfallo Increase in rainfall in general - - xo Reduce in number of raining - - xo Irregular rainfall distribution x x xo Early raining season coming x - -o Late raining season coming - - xo More concentrated rainfall in
some day x x x
o Lengthening heavy raining days - x -
o Reduce in drizzling rain - - xo Reduce in sudden and brief
shower rain (in lunar Jul.) - - x
SIGNS AND VULNERABILITY
Indicator
Perception in Ha Giang pro.
Pro. level
CommunityDong Van
dist..Bac Quang
dist.Temperatureo Increased in summer x x xo Very hot in sometimes x x xo Very cold in some times x x xo Changed from 4 to 2 season - - -
Rainfallo Increase in rainfall in general - - xo Reduce in number of raining x x -o Irregular rainfall distribution x x xo Early raining season coming x - xo Late raining season coming - x xo More concentrated rainfall in
some day
x x x
o Lengthening heavy raining days
- - -
o Reduce in drizzling rain x x xo Reduce in sudden and brief
shower rain (in lunar Jul.)
x x x
SIGNS AND VULNERABILITY
Indicator
Bac Kan province Ha Giang pro.
Pro. Level
Community Pro. Level
CommunityBach
Thong Ba Be Dong Van Bac Quang
o Shower rain in winter season x x x x - -o Irregular and lengthening
damaging cold
x - x x x x
o Irregular and lengthening very cold
x x x x - -
o Storm and typhoon circulation x x x - - -o Irregular regional raining x - x x x xo Out of season floods x x x x x xo Frequent hailing raining x - x x x xo Less raining in the end of
cultivating season
- - x - - -
Other Extreme climate events
VI in Bac Kan province
District VI Rank
Average 0.183 -
Cho Moi 0,277 1
Bach Thong 0,266 2
Bac Kan 0,232 3
Ngan Son 0,168 4
Bac Nam 0,162 5
Na Ri 0,138 6
Ba Be 0,119 7
Cho Don 0,099 8
SIGNS AND VULNERABILITY
VI in Ha Giang province
District VI Rank
Average 0,163 -
Hoang Su Phi 0,390 1
Yen Minh 0,386 2
Xin Man 0,349 3
Bac Quang 0,256 4
Quang Binh 0,103 5
Bac Me 0,085 6
Ha Giang city 0,066 7
Vi Xuyen 0,049 8
Quan Ba 0,046 9
Dong Van 0,039 10
Meo Vac 0,024 11
SIGNS AND VULNERABILITY
Climate variable
Main impacts of climate change
Provincial officer Bach Thong district Ba Be district
Change in temp.
Cold in winter cause of 14,000 death of cow, buffalo and disease epidemic occurrenceHuman health decrease due to very cold temperature1200 ha lack of waterNew worm and pest for fruit and forest tree
Serious drought 200 ha yearlyLack of water for 1050 ha of rice, 700 ha of tobacco due to temperature increases;Cause of 577 cow death in 2010 due to very cold weather;Increased in disease and pest, especially bee-pest on fruit crops and forest tree
None clear on impacts of change in temperature;Increase in disease and pest on crops;Lost of 100% yield in 120 ha in drought yearLack of water in 300 ha of rice, Death of 2000 cattle due to very cold weather in 2008;Lengthening seasonal and damage to seedling and 30% yield in cold year
Change in rainfall
6 floods per year and come very early, 600 ha lost 30% yield due to continuously rainingLate cultivated for 500 ha of spring was flooded in spring season
Increased in cost of irrigated for rice and maize;Flooded in 60 ha of maize had no harvested;Exhausted in some human lakes and pond;Lack of water for crops in cultivating season
Late seasonal cultivated for 300 ha because of none raining in some yearsDirect damages due to hailing rains;Lost in crop yields due to out-season raining in some locations;None data shown on how much damage due to change in rainfalls
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN BAC KAN PROVINCE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Difficulties to transportaion
More impacts on electricity and fresh water supply
More damages to infrastructure
More damages to household income
Increase in food scarcity/lack
Increases in disease and pest
Reduced in crop productivity
Facing change in cropping pattern
Increase in cost of irrigation
Increase in disease for animal
Increase in deaths for animal
Facing feed scarcity for animal
Inccrease in disease and insect
Increase in burning chance
Increase in deaths for tree due to drought
Low growth
Increase in lodging
Livi
ng c
ondi
tion
Crop
pro
duct
ionLi
vest
ock
prod
uctio
nFo
rest
% farmers
Ba Be districtBach Thong district
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN BAC KAN PROVINCE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate variable
Main impacts of climate change
Provincial officer Dong Van district Bac Quang district
Change in temp.
Reduced crop yield due to snow and very cold;No harvest due to ear cold come;700 billion VND in some year with damaged cold
Reduced crop yield, 300 of cow deaths in 2010 due to snow and ice;Increased in cost of varieties due to damaged coldIncreased in cost of irrigation due to hot weather
Reduced in crop yield due to cold temperature in some year;Animal deaths due to cold weather;Reduced in fruit crops due to cold in spring season;
Change in rainfall
Reduced crop year due to heavy rain and floods;Unstable rice cultivated area due to lack of rainExhausted water supply for riceDisease due to high humidity from lengthening rain;
Reduced in crop year due to hoarfrost;Increased in floodsSerious lack of irrigated waterExhausted in 293 water tanks;Increased in cost of irrigation; soil conservation and soil branch
Increased in cost of irrigation in dry season;Reduced on rice yield in floods season;Reduced in transportationIncreased in soil restoration in flooded areas
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN BAC KAN PROVINCE
TÁC ĐỘNG CỦA BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬUIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN BAC KAN PROVINCE
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Difficulties to transportaion
More impacts on electricity and fresh water supply
More damages to infrastructure
More damages to household income
Increase in food scarcity/lack
Increases in disease and pest
Reduced in crop productivity
Facing change in cropping pattern
Increase in cost of irrigation
Increase in disease for animal
Increase in deaths for animal
Facing feed scarcity for animal
Inccrease in disease and insect
Increase in burning chance
Increase in deaths for tree due to drought
Low growth
Increase in lodging
Livi
ng c
ondi
tionC
rop
prod
uctio
nLive
stoc
k pr
oduc
tion
Fore
st
% farmers
Bac Quang district
Dong Van district
CLIMATE RISKSIN BAC KAN PROVINCE
CLIMATE RISKSIN HA GIANG PROVINCE
o Strengthen the climate smart agriculture (CSA) to use less inputs, low emission and high economic return for the ethnic people: New crop varieties with high
tolerance to drought, floods and poor fertility (hybrid rice, soybean, hybrid maize, bean, mixed crops,..)
Rehabilitate native and local crop and animal varieties (vicia faba, slopping crop cultivation, fagopyrum esculentum,..)
Diversify cropping pattern to adopt to local cultivated condition, low carbon emission and soil fertility improvement
MITIGATION OPTIONS TO CLIMATE RISKS
o Strengthen the climate smart agriculture (CSA) to use less inputs, low emission and high economic return for the ethnic people: Diversify cropping pattern to adopt to
local cultivated condition, low carbon emission, soil fertility improvement (green and stone fences; green mulching,..
Integrated improved technique and traditional and indigenous cultivated practices;
Rotated and intercropped cultivation practices as climate smart agriculture to suitably use soil fertility, cultivated condition and shift suitable cropping patterns;
MITIGATION OPTIONS TO CLIMATE RISKS
Local practices to prevent animal from damaged cold in winter; integrate on-site feeds for ruminate animals in winter season;
MITIGATION OPTIONS TO CLIMATE RISKS
Suitable fish to cold water in water lake and reservoirs to diversify nutrient sources for farmers;
Strengthen capacity for community and local authorities to better off climate change response
Strengthen market organization for the north mountainous agriculture
o Poor infrastructure and high investment requirement and low efficiency from agriculture production;
o Limited prior fund from local provinces and lack of finanical support from government for the marginal food security areas;
o Poor information and database on climate change to be accessed by local mountainous region;
KEY BARRIERS TO OPTIONS OF MITIGATION
o Weak management for common resources;
o Limited in knowledge and education;o Un-control migration in some
mountainous communes and damage to the natural resources;
o Weak management and low net benefit from market organiztion
Conclusions1. Mountainous regions plays important role in Vietnam,
low proportion of agricultural land, approximately 80% farmers are living in agriculture, high proportion of ethnic minority;
2. VI varied 0,099-0,399, lower than other ecological regions, clear signs of climate change and big challenges to farmers for sustainable agricultural development and livelihood;
3. Clear impacts of climate change trend and not quantified, big affected to agriculture such as drought, floods and difficulties to farmers to develop crops, livestock's and livelihoods
CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS
Conclusions4. About 60% farmers supposed that high increase in CC risks in
comparison with 20 years ago, mainly risks on water resources scarcity, soil erosion, natural resources reduction, landslide, flash floods, drought, reduced in soil productivities,…
5. Cropping pattern transform, new and adopted crop varieties have transferred to farmers to avert risks but still limited for long-term strategy and annually;
6. Big barriers in selected province need to overcome: poor infrastructure, low and limited capital investment; lack of information and related database, limited education and knowledge; migration occurred in some areas, weak market organization,…
CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS
Suggestions1. Considered climate change as important issues and priority in NMR
and need to communicate through communication campaign;2. Prior fund investment through MARD and local province for
adaptive measures implementation in NMR;3. Through national programs and projects to support for NMR to
response to CC, especially adaptive practices in agriculture and livelihood;
4. Conduced researches to quantify impacts of climate change in sub-ecological zones for preparing readiness to response CC inn NRM;
5. Develop action plans and training courses for NMR provinces and downscale to sub-ecological zone;
6. Support to re-organize and develop market for outputs, especially for ecological products and climate advantages
CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS
Thank you very much for your
attention!