asia pacific regional security challenges and opportunities
TRANSCRIPT
Asia Pacific Regional Security Challenges and Opportunities
Richard A. BitzingerRSIS
Overview
What is driving security concerns in the Asia-Pacific (particularly the military buildup)?– What is enabling this buildup?
How is military modernization affecting regional security? – Is there an “arms race”?
Opportunities for regional security?
Asia Pacific: The Critical Nexus
Home to 50% of the world’s population
– 5 of the top 10 largest countries
– 2nd and 3rd largest economies
– 4 of the top 10 largest militaries
Huge ICT sector (but unequally distributed)
1 billion Asians use internet
Critical SLOCs: 50%+ of all global
merchant tonnage passes through Asia
Pacific
– Traffic through Asia Pacific waters is 3x Suez, 5x
Panama
Growing Chinese Assertiveness in Regional Waters
China claims “sovereign control” over Diaoyu islands, most of SCS
– A “core interest” on par with Taiwan, Tibet
Increased “sovereignty enforcement” efforts in East and Southeast China seas
– USNS Impeccable incident, 2009
– Scarborough Shoal incident (Philippines), 2012
– Cut cables of Vietnamese seismic survey ship, 2012
– Establishment of Sansha city, 2012
– PLA amphibious fleet patrol to James Shoal (Malaysia),
2013
– Creation of ECS ADIZ, 2013
Chinese Military Buildup in Region
Infrastructure– New naval base on Hainan Island
– Airstrip at Woody Island, Paracels
– Constructing naval facilities in Myanmar, negotiating port access with Pakistan
“String of Pearls” – Chinese naval access to facilities stretching from Northeast Pacific Ocean to Indian Ocean
New Second Artillery missile brigade (w/ASBM?) in Guangdong
Summer 2010: “unprecedented” three-fleet military maneuvers in SCS
U.S. “Rebalancing” Back to Asia
“Pivot” from NE Asia to SE Asia– Relocation of troops out of South Korea and
Japan
– Corresponding buildup in Guam
– Littoral Combat Ships to be stationed in Singapore
– US Marines based in northern Australia
– Expanded US-Phils, US-Indonesian military ties
Defense transformation– Greater emphasis on mobility, agility, flexibility of
U.S. forces in Asia-Pacific
– AirSea Battle concept
Other Regional Security Concerns
Rise of India and South Korea as military
powers
Continuing regional terrorist activities: JI, Abu
Sayyaff Group, Laskar Jihad
Piracy and international crime: robbery at
sea, hijacking, taking of hostages, drug
smuggling, human trafficking
WMD proliferation (trans-shipment through
regional waters)
Asian Military Modernization
New emphasis on forces for sovereignty enforcement, forward defense, protecting economic interests– New requirements for force projection, firepower,
stealth
Navies: move from coastal defense to (at least) “green water” capabilities
Air Forces: 4th-gen-plus fighters, long-range AAMs, precision-guided AGMs
Increased need for C4ISR for jointness, networking
Enabler #1: Rising Regional Defense Spending
China: defense spending has more than quintupled since 1997
(2013: $119b)
– Second-highest military spender in the world
Regional defense spending growth, 2000s (SIPRI):
– Australia: 40%
– India: 37%
– South Korea: 35%
– Indonesia: 200%
– Malaysia: 30%
– Singapore: 33%
– Thailand: 58%
Only Japan and Taiwan have had relatively static defense
spending over the past decade
– Taiwan: signed $6.8b arms deal with US in 2008
Enabler #2: The Global “Buyer’s Market” in Arms
Most leading arms producers (Western
Europe, Russia, Israel) are highly dependent
on exports
– Excess capacity, shrinking markets at home
– Producers prepared to deal when it comes price,
flexible payment options, offsets, tech transfers
Asia: Second largest arms export market
– India, China, Korea: typically among top ten arms
importers
– SEA: Small but growing, open market
Is an Arms Race Underway in Asia?
Arms race: irrational arming, no absolute goal– Futile, if not counterproductive
Case in point: submarine arms race in SEA?
– Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia
(Thailand? Philippines?)
– Could tit-for-tat acquisitions destabilize regional
security, especially if coupled with other
acquisitions?
Increased “green-water” capabilities to assert sovereignty
and control in territorial waters, EEZs
Regional Military Modernization: A Potentially Destabilizing Buildup?
An “arms race”? Probably not
“Modernization-plus”: lead to the introduction of new
capabilities (e.g., for force projection, stealth, firepower, ISR)
into regional military security calculus
Arms dynamic can still lead to increased arms competitions,
which can contribute to a regional security dilemma
– Unintended consequences: reinforce mutual suspicions and
insecurities: spiral effect undermines the very security that arming
is seeking to enhance
– Make conflict, should it occur, more “high-tech,” more lethal, and
potentially more devastating
Opportunities for Regional Security and Stability
Improved capabilities for deterrence
New capacities for contributing to HADR
missions, PKOs, and other contingencies
Improved interoperability
– Communications and datalinks
– Intelligence-sharing
Especially when married with variety of
CBMs
– APEC, ADMM+, EAS, ASEAN+3, FPDA