arlington public schools and arlington county government ......all arlington public schools (aps)...

Arlington Public Schools and Arlington County Government

Collaboration and Data Sharing to Inform Schools Projections

Joint School Board/County Board Work SessionDecember 3, 2019

Community Facilities Study (2015-2017)

Community Facilities Study (CFS), 2015 – 2017https://commissions.arlingtonva.us/community-facilities-study/

The CFS reviewed the ACG Forecast and APS Projections Methods: Consultants reviewed County population and employment

forecasts and APS student projections

The review reinforced validity of methods This confirmed the need for two different methodologies and

projections for two different purposes Recommended short and long-term improvements for data

sharing, collaboration, trend monitoring, and methodology

2

https://commissions.arlingtonva.us/community-facilities-study/

https://commissions.arlingtonva.us/community-facilities-study/

Collaboration between APS and ACG

3

Community Facilities Study

July 1, 2017ACG Forecast Round 9.1

2015-2017

September 30, 2017APS Projections

July 1, 2015ACG Forecast Round 9.0

2015 20202016 2017 2018 2019

EnhancementAnnual Housing Unit ForecastMaster Housing Unit DatabaseProjected Births


ACG Data UpdateSeptember 30, 2018

AddedEnhancementAffordability

September 30, 2019

AddedEnhancementRecalibrate Birth Projections

ACG Data Update




ACG Forecast

Land Use Model

4

“The housing unit method is an acceptable methodology and is especially effective in areas with high quality data on housing development and changes.”

---- RLS Demographics, A Review of Projection Methodologies for the Arlington County Government and Arlington Public Schools , April 2, 2015.

ACG Forecast

Land Use Model

• Forecast of housing units, households, population, and jobs for a 30-year period and broken down in to 5-year increments.

• Population forecast is based on the 2010 Census total population count.

• Future population is estimated by applying occupancy and households statistics to projects under construction or approved (not yet under construction) and areas which could be redeveloped with greater development potential and/or change in land use.

5

ACG Forecast

6

• Housing unit occupancy and average household size are derived from 2010 Census data.

• Each variable is derived for the areas listed below, and for the balance of the County outside of these areas.

• Density and land use is determined by County Board adopted/approved documents:

• General Land Use Plan (GLUP)• Zoning Ordinance• Sector and Small Area Plans

1. Rosslyn2. Courthouse3. Clarendon4. VA Square5. Ballston 6. Crystal City

7. Pentagon City8. Columbia Pike9. Shirlington10. Cherrydale11. Nauck12. East Falls Church

VariablesGuidance

GuidanceGuidance

ACG Development Tracking

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Net New Housing Units

Net New Housing Units

7

Guidance

Collaboration between APS and ACG

8

ACG and APS implemented a methodology that links population forecasts to student projections through housing units and births.

Data Shared Between ACG and APS

9

Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD)

Combines administrative data from multiple sources to create one database of all housing units.

Housing Unit Forecast

ACG creates a modified housing unit forecast, which breaks down anticipated housing unit growth on an annual basis for the next 10-years.

Actual and Projected Births

Births that have occurred to Arlington residents and projected births based on the population forecast.

Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD)

• First developed in 2015

• Updated annually as of July 1st

• Combines data from Real Estate Assessments, Housing Division (Apartments), and development tracking to create a database of all housing units in the County

• Designates apartment complexes by affordability type: market rate, CAF Only, or mixed (market and CAF)

• APS uses MHUD to calculate student generation factors by housing type which are applied to future housing to estimate student yield

10

2018 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD)

Housing Unit Forecast

• ACG participates in the MWCOG Cooperative Forecasting Process.

• Most recent: Forecast Round 9.1

• Produced by ACG as of July 1, 2017

• Adopted by MWCOG Fall 2018

• ACG produces a special housing forecast for APS:

• Update based on development changes between the latest forecast round (July 1, 2017) and the current year

• Breaks down 5-year incremental forecast to a 1-year forecast for a 10-year period

• Every September, ACG reviews the annual housing unit forecast and provides an update to APS

• The forecast includes affordable housing units in site plans/use permits approved by the County Board

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2018 Housing Unit Forecast 10-Year

Actual and Projected Births

• Data about actual births (those that have occurred to Arlington residents) are purchased from the Virginia Department of Health by ACG

• Projected births are estimated by integrating a cohort component population model and the five-year population forecasts: - Updated annually- Model recalibration

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Improvements to Forecast County Births

• The cohort component model used to project births is being recalibrated to include updates:-ACG Round 9.1 population forecast- Fertility rates-Migration rates

• Updated birth forecasts, reflecting the recalibrated model, will be available in October 2019

• Updated birth forecasts will be used in the upcoming 2020-21 to 2029-30 enrollment projections

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All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

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Larger kindergarten cohorts entering APS elementary

schools

Smaller 12th grade cohorts graduating

from APS high schools

Projected Arlington County “resident”

births

Residential housing growth

Migration of families into and out of Arlington

County

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* Source: Fall 2018 10-Year Projections** Source: Membership reports for 2019 and previous years www.apsva.us/statistics/monthly-enrollment/

2,4482,337 2,283 2,231

2,320 2,2682,144 2,145 2,156 2,135 2,108

1,8762,081

1,9011,779 1,762 1,782

1,631 1,565 1,492

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

K 2022-23

K 2021-22

K 2020-21

K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 12th,Sept. '18

12th,Sept. '17

12th,Sept. '16

12th,Sept. '15

APS Student Enrollment Snapshot Fall 2019

Projected Kindergarten Students *Current Students (Sept. 30, 2019) **Recent Grade 12 Cohorts (Sept. of each year) **



Enrollment projections rely on assumptions for future kindergarten students:• Kindergarten

projections from 2019-20 to 2021-22 are based on actual births from 2014 to 2016

• Kindergarten projections starting in 2022-23 are based on county birth forecasts

2,139 2,196 2,152 2,1272,253 2,293 2,279 2,283 2,337

2,4482,536 2,570 2,621 2,676 2,737 2,803

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Ente

ring

Kind

erga

rten

Coh

ort

Schooll Year

Projected kindergarten enrollment, Fall 2018 10-Year Projections Actual kindergarten enrollment

Based on actual births

Based on forecasted births

17

Source: Fall 2018 10-Year Projections


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• In Fall 2019, RLS Demographics was contracted to update the Arlington County births forecast model, the Cohort Projection System, last updated in 2016

• Comparisons of forecasted and actual births for 2017 and 2018 showed that births were over-estimated in the forecast model

• RLS Demographics’ update of the birth forecasts includes:• The latest AGC population forecast (Round 9.1)• Updated analysis of age-specific fertility rates using 2010 to 2018 historical birth data and US

Census bureau estimates of the distribution of the female population by age• Updated analysis of age-specific migration using US Census Bureau estimates up to July 1, 2018

• Some key findings that informed the updated births model:• It was found that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 2010 to 2015 was 1.44 and is estimated to

decline to 1.34 in the 2015 to 2020 period*

• There is a reduced level of in-migration for the 20 to 24 and 25 to 29 age groups, compared with the 2016 model

* The updated migration uses the latest Census estimates extrapolated to 2020


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By 2023, the latest birth forecast is 964 births lower than previously assumed

Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation. RLS Demographics, Oct. 2019. ACG, CPHD, Sept. 2018 and Sept. 2019.


3,4083,750

2,786

2,934

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Actu

al a

nd F

orec

aste

d Bi

rths

Comparison of Actual Births and Births Used in the Fall 2018 and Fall 2019 10-Year Enrollment Projections

Births (used in Fall 2018 projections) Updated births (for Fall 2019 projections) Actual births



• Enrollment projections also rely on assumptions of future residential construction from the county

• Future housing accommodates new households and students

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Net New Housing Unit Forecast for 2019 to 2029Projection

YearMulti-family

GardenMulti-family

HighriseSingle-family

DetachedTownhome Total

Net New Units2019 - 1,275 - - 1,275 2020 12 2,188 - 3 2,203 2021 36 1,230 - - 1,266 2022 - 1,234 - 27 1,261 2023 172 1,167 3 57 1,400 2024 12 1,325 - 86 1,423 2025 32 1,324 - 45 1,401 2026 - 1,379 - - 1,379 2027 - 1,379 - - 1,379 2028 85 1,232 - - 1,317 2029 99 1,178 - - 1,277 Total 448 14,911 3 218 15,581

Source: ACG, CPHD, Sept. 2019.


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• The greatest number of residential units are delivered in 2020

• Unit deliveries are evenly distributed from 2021 to 2029

Source: ACG, CPHD, Housing Unit Forecast, Sept. 2018 and Sept. 2019, Development Tracking Report, 3Q2018 and 4Q2018, https://projects.arlingtonva.us/data-research/development/quarterly-tracking-report/.

127

1,275

2,203

1,266 1,2611,400 1,423 1,401 1,379 1,379 1,317 1,277

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2018 * 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Net

New

Uni

ts

Comparison of Future Residential Units Assumed in the 10-Year Fall 2018 and Fall 2019 Enrollment Projections

Net new units (used in Fall 2018) Net new units (used in Fall 2019)Net new units (3Q2018 and 4Q2018)


https://projects.arlingtonva.us/data-research/development/quarterly-tracking-report/


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Source:* Rates are based on September 30, 2019 APS Enrollments (Grades K-12) and July 1, 2019 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD) from Arlington County Government, CPHD, Planning Division.** Rates are based on September 30, 2018 APS Enrollments (Grades K-12) and July 1, 2018 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD) from Arlington County Government, CPHD, Planning Division.

GradesK to 12

SingleFamilyDetached

Single FamilyDetached withAccessory Dwelling

Townhome DuplexMarketRate

MixedIncome

CAFOnly 1

MarketRate

MixedIncome

CAFOnly

Elevator GardenTotal bySchool

DRAFT - Fall 2019Student Generation Rates * 0.498 N/A 0.214 0.345 0.066 0.127 0.656 0.254 0.383 0.632 0.055 0.113 0.232

Fall 2018Student Generation Rates ** 0.497 N/A 0.194 0.358 0.061 0.126 0.617 0.258 0.380 0.584 0.054 0.110 0.229

Difference 0.001 N/A 0.020 (0.013) 0.005 0.001 0.039 (0.004) 0.003 0.048 0.001 0.003 0.003

2019 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD) housing by type shares 1

24.09% 0.03% 3.77% 2.27% 25.24% 7.86% 0.53% 8.55% 1.88% 2.99% 12.78% 10.00% 100.00%

1 Excludes Apartment Elevator Senior Housing

Multi-family Elevator Multi-family Garden Condo

To each new unit is a applied a Student Generation Rate (SGR) to estimate the number of students from new residential development.

Comparison of Draft Fall 2019 and Fall 2018 SGR


14,191 14,667 14,800 14,981 15,307 15,589 15,835 16,161 16,534 16,919 17,271

-869-593 -726

-182 -508 -790 -1,036 -1,362 -1,735 -2,120 -2,472

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Elem

enta

ry S

choo

l Enr

ollm

ent (

PreK

to G

rade

s 5)

School Year

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth – Elementary School

Starting in 2024-25, the Kindergarten to Grade 5 elementary school enrollment projections are completely based on assumptions from:• Births• Future construction• Past cohort

transition rates continuing into the future


+752 seats, Fleet E.S.

+725 seats, Reed E.S.

Projection completely based on assumptions

2018 Enrollment

School Seats

Projected Enrollment (No.)

23

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth – Middle School

Starting in 2027-28, the Grade 6 to 8 middle school enrollment projections are completely based on assumptions from:• Births• Future construction• Past cohort



5,950 6,204 6,532 6,628 6,609 6,697 6,854 6,989 7,002 6,995 7,103

-639

129 -199 -295 -276 -364 -521 -656 -669 -662 -770

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Mid

dle

Scho

ol E

nrol

lmen

t (G

rade

s 6 to

8)

School Year

+1,022 seats, Hamm M.S.The Heights

(Gr. 6-8)Projection completely based on assumptions

2018 Enrollment

School Seats


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7,181 7,527 7,818 8,297 8,741 8,996 9,310 9,366 9,478 9,613 9,715

542 433 262463

69 -186 -500244 132 -3 -105

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

High

Sch

ool E

nrol

lmen

t (G

rade

s 9 to

12)

School Year

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth – High School

Starting in 2028-29, the Grade 9 high school enrollment projections are completely based on assumptions from:• Births• Future construction• And past cohort



+237 seats, Arl. Tech

The Heights(Gr. 9-12)

+680 seats, Arl. TechEd Center


+800 seats, Arl. Career Ctr.


Projection for Grade 9 based on assumptions

2018 Enrollment

School Seats


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APS Enrollment Projections Timeline

Timeframe Topic

Mid December 2019 APS publishes 2019 10-Year Projections for 2020-21 through 2028-29

January 2020 Update to permanent seat capacity inventory reflecting refinements to schools’ permanent seat capacity and the 2019 10-Year Projections

February 11, 2020 School Board Work Session: 10-Year Projections update for the 2021-30 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)

Arlington Public Schools and Arlington County Government

Collaboration and Data Sharing to Inform Schools Projections

Joint School Board/County Board Work SessionDecember 3, 2019

arlington public schools and arlington county government ......all arlington public schools (aps)...

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